Race 5: BEGUILDED (#1, 15-1)
This race that ends the early Pick 5 interests me the most on the entire card because of the possibility of throwing out the morning line favorite MEREDITH. She is by terrific first time turf stallion American Pharoah who connects at 17% with his progeny trying the grass for the first time but there is nothing on the female side of her pedigree and trainer’s record with surface switch from dirt to turf and sprint to route makes her bet against. Her dam Flattermewithroses won once in sixteen starts and tried routing on the turf five times without a win. Secondly, trainer Bob Baffert excels with debuting maidens sprinting on the main track and with three-year old pointing for the classic races but in the past five years he is 23/0-5-2 with his trainees going from dirt to turf and stretching out from a sprint to route. She figures to control the pace from start exiting a fast pace sprint but will find company for the lead with My Little Runaway and Summer Love forwardly placed. Instead, I am going to back a horse making her second race off the layoff exiting a tough trip seventh-place finish in her return. BEGUILDED is half sister to Phil D’Amato trained Fault who won six of sixteenth starts including Grade 2 Buena Vista at one-mile on the turf and Grade 1 Santa Margarita at mile and an eighth on the main track. She did not have a real visible excuse when she finished eighth in the China Doll Stakes as she raced between rivals behind a two horse duel and was always in good striking position but failed to show a late kick in a race where the first ten finishers were separated by only five lengths. The daughter of Orb returned from a 127-day layoff on July 12 where she was dismissed at 21-1 and was working like a filly that was going to need that first race off the layoff as she came into that event with three consecutive C+ works per the Handicapper’s Report clocker and she ran accordingly beaten five lengths but a closer inspection of that race reveals she had no chance with the trip she endured. Forced to break from post position ten in a ten horse field, she was parked four to five paths wide leaving the chute and ran around the first turn three wide and into the backstretch behind a slow early pace. Next to the wide journey, she took a funny step midway on the backstretch and into the far turn tried to commence a three to four wide run at the top of the stretch and lost her punch with her stablemate Carpe Vinum emerging victorious. She now makes her second race off the extended layoff and goes from the extreme outside to the rail to save ground under hot riding Juan Hernandez. The bay filly has returned to training much better with two works capped off by a 1:01.1 move on the turf that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B working with stable mate Zee Drop where “neither were asked.” I expect to see half of her morning line and that is acceptable and I expect her to move forward with a ground saving trip.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (1) BEGUILDED at 6-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #6 Summer Love and #8 Moonhill Milly. Small reverse for each.
Race 7: FIVESTAR LYNCH (#5, 10-1)
The TimeformUS pace projector and review of the running lines of the nine entrants in this field reveal a lack of early speed signed on in this 1-⅜ miles turf event. The pace projector indicates there is no early speed and majority in this field are assigned a running style of midpack or closers and this race can unfold at tepid pace for our top choice FIVESTAR LYNCH. The Richard Baltas trainee broke his maiden in his eighth career start for $62,500 claiming price on February 8 with the aid of a perfect trip. He saved ground around the first turn and the far turn behind the leader Trojan Magic who set a fast pace to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures. He tipped off the rail into the stretch and rallied to wear down the longtime leader Trojan Magic to win by a half-length. The Slade Power gelding returned from a 106-day layoff on May 24 in a race that appeared he needed the race off more than a three month layoff. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “stalked inside, angled a bit off the rail in the stretch, between horses within range deep stretch, not good enough,” in a race that saw the winner Red King returned to win Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure and eighth place finisher Posterize returned to win $32,000 claiming dirt sprint with a 85 Beyer Speed Figure. He made his second start off the layoff on the final race of the Santa Anita spring-summer meet on June 21 and ran eighth beaten seven and a half-lengths in a race that one can dismiss because the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “ran outside at the back, winding up in the turn, circling very wide, showing a mild late kick to pass a few.” He suffered very bad riding tactics as this gelding shown to sit close to the early pace and succeed and also he had a very wide journey covering 54ft more than the first through third place finishers and 38ft more than the fourth place finisher Succeedandsurpass in a race where the runner-up Lincoln City returned to win at the same class level with a 87 Beyer Speed Figure. He has returned with five workouts including his last drill where he worked in company heads up with the stakes placed sprinter Ginobli on August 2 in 48 seconds flat (Fivestar Lynch - August 2) that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave B-. Abel Cedillo takes over in the irons and with aggressive ride from the start he dictates terms on the front end without losing ground on both turns and can spring the upset to start the Saturday late Pick 5 at Del Mar.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (5) FIVESTAR LYNCH at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #8 Tintoretto and #7 Cupid’s Claw. Small reverse for each.
Race 9: BODHICITTA (#2, 6-1)
The scratch of Jodie Olimpica changed the pace scenario of this race as that filly was expected to be the pacesetter and now look for Summering from the rail post position to go straight for the early lead along with Harmless tracking or pressing the leader in second early. A mare that can be overlooked is BODHICITTA who enters this race in peak form with two wins and a second in three starts this year. Her main asset is her late kick and she displayed that in her previous win on March 8 at Santa Anita. The Showcasing filly found the rail around the first turn, angled off the rail in two path down the backstretch behind a moderate early pace, angled four wide at the top of the stretch, and delivered a big late kick to blow by the rail rally of Dogtag to win by length and a half. She completed her final quarter of a mile in 22.86 seconds and her win was flattered when Dogtag returned to win Allowance N2X and Possibly Perfect Stakes in her next two starts with 88 and 89 Beyer Speed Figures respectively. Her connections became ambitious when she returned in the Grade 1 Gamely on May 25 at Santa Anita trying to stretch her late kick to 1-⅛ miles for the first time and she ran well behind the perfect trip stalking winner Keeper of the Stars to lose by length and a quarter. In that race, she found herself towards the rear of the field behind a fast pace set by uncontested leader Giza Goddess early. She moved up one off the rail in the two path on the far turn, angled five wide at the top of the stretch, and delivered a final three-eighths in 34.56 seconds to catch second over Mucho Unusual. The chestnut filly returns from a seventy-five day layoff with seven workouts including five furlong moves with stablemate and recent Wickker Stakes winner Bob and Jackie on July 30 in 1:02.20 (Bodhicitta - July 30) where the Handicapper’s Report clocker gave it a B stating “appearing best, good work for her,” and he also gave her two previous works on this turf course a B as well. Regular rider Flavien Prat who is second in the jockey standings with seven turf wins remains in the irons and drawn well in post position two I expect her to save ground and unleash her devastating late kick to spring the minor upset.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (2) BODHICITTA at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #3 Tonahutu, #7 Beau Recall. Small reverse for each.
Daily Double: (2) BODHICITTA with (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ
Race 10: SUPERMAN SHAQ (#4, 7-2)
The morning line favorite that will get the majority of attention will be the $1 million Keeneland September 2019 purchase Spielberg who was the highest priced yearling from the sixty-three yearlings by his sire Union Rags. He is trained by trainer Bob Baffert who has started two debuting maidens sprinting on the main track this meet and both return winners as the favorite, Happier (July 31, 2020, $1.20-1) with 89 Beyer Speed Figure and Freedom Fighter (August 1, 2020, $0.50-1) with a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. He enters this race with the prequisite fast works with two of his four workouts over the Del Mar main track best of the morning. Two issues with this pricey yearling is the pedigree is not to win early and he has shown the lack of quick gate speed. By 11% first time out sire by the dam Miss Sequel who won three of seventeen starts and won all three starts routing on the main track and her only foal High Road won his two starts routing on an off track. Moreover, I am concerned with his ability to break fast from the gate as he was slow into stride in his half-mile spin on 46.20 on July 20 (Spielberg - July 20). Instead I am more interested and strongly feel that SUPERMAN SHAQ has the combination of win early pedigree, high price purchase, and excellent workouts to suggest this Peter Miller trainee is ready to win in his career debut. He cost $550,000 at the Ocala Spring Sale which was the highest priced two-year old from the fourteen two-year olds by Shackleford at the sale. The female family is the reason that he fetched such a high price as the dam Drumette has produced five winners from five starters with two of those winners two-year old winners. Her standout foal is Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and Breeders Cup Distaff winner Monomoy Girl who has won eleven of thirteen starts including three wins from four starts as a two-year old and Mr. Monomoy who won two of five starts including one of three starts as a two-year old. Superman Shaq enters this race with seven workouts including a visually impressive five furlong move in 1:01.60 on July 27 (Superman Shaq - July 27) where he broke fast to outbreak his workmate, waited for his mate to catch up into the turn, re-broke again to work to the five furlong pole and galloping out past it while his workmate ended the work and three-quarter pole in a work that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B- stating he “has ability, outworked an older horse and is worth following.” Trainer Peter Miller is off to fast start this meet as the leading trainer and has connected at a 50% clip (4/2-0-1) with his two-year olds making their debut in maiden special weight dirt sprints as both winners were not the favorite, What’s Up Surfer (July 12, 2020, $2.90-1) and Good with People (July 12, 2020, $3.00-1). The gate speed he shown in his July 27 work and his subsequent August 2 work that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave him a B will give him an advantage over the morning line favorite Spielberg and with the percoious win early breeding and his trainer’s fast start this meet, I expect Superman Shaq to break running and make every pole a winning one at a hint of a price in the first leg of the late Daily Double.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ at 3-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #3 Noble Reflection, #8 Dr. Schivel. Small reverse for each.
Daily Double: (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ with (6) SWEET DEVIL.
Race 11: SWEET DEVIL (#6, 5-1)
The new face in the Del Mar finale Ya Beauty I respect as she received positive Timeform Foreign comments on her runner-up effort on June 24 versus twelve horse field where she was three and three-quarter lengths in front of the rest of the field as she is “open to further improvement and is well up to winning a similar event.” The filly I will be taking a stand against is the second choice on the morning line Nurse Goodbody who has disappointed at odds of 2-1 and 8-5 in her last two starts. When she ran second beaten a length on May 24 she was part of a bunched field where the first seven horses were separated by four and a quarter lengths and last time out she was the beaten favorite where she was “struggling four-wide under a drive in the far turn, completely empty in the stretch,” according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. She is a bet against and the top preference goes back to my top selection on July 11. SWEET DEVIL has managed to finish in the money only once in three starts on the turf but each of those starts was better than it appears on paper. In her career debut, she was dismissed at 37-1 in her career debut on January 11 where she ran a respectable race to defeat more than half the field to wire despite racing greenly through the stretch rallying in traffic to lose by only four-lengths and galloped out very well after the wire to indicate additional ground should pose no problem. She stretched out to 1-⅛ miles in her next start and she ran well to finish third beaten only a half-length in a race where she lost ground around both turns and was close to early pace that saw the two leaders weaken to finish fifth and seventh. She was a little head strong early crossing the wire for the first time and was parked three wide on the first turn and into the backstretch chasing the two leaders Nu Pi Lambda and Undisturbed. She made a three wide move on the far turn to take over the lead into the stretch and refused to quit easily staying on gamely through deep stretch as the two rivals that outfinished Sweet Devil rallied from seventh and sixth after the first half-mile. After a dirt debacle on May 17 versus a key race field, she returned to turf on July 11 and lost more ground than the one-length margin of defeat would indicate. The daughter of Daredevil broke from post position eleven in an eleven horse field and was parked three wide on the first turn and stayed that wide down the backstretch, moved up three wide on the far turn and into the stretch and “battled tenaciously down the center of the track, beaten a neck for second,” according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. The Mike McCarthy trainee is drawn better this afternoon and I expect to get a ground saving trip under Juan Hernandez who has four turf wins this meet. She has been the victim of some tough trips in her recent turf starts but if Sweet Devil gets a clean ground saving trip she can break through with her diploma in her fifth career start as my BEST BET on the card.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (6) SWEET DEVIL at 7-2 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #11 Ya Beauty. Small reverse for each.
Small Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #5 Noble Hearted. No reverse.
Del Mar Pick 3 Race 9
Race 9: (2) BODHICITTA, (3) Tonahutu, (7) Beau Recall
Race 10: (3) Noble Reflection, (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ, (8) Dr. Schivel
Race 11: (6) SWEET DEVIL, (11) Ya Beauty
Ticket 1: 2 with 3,4,8 with 6,11 = 1 x 3 x 2 x $2 = $12
Ticket 2: 2,3,7 with 4 with 6,11 = 3 x 1 x 2 x $2 = $12
Ticket 3: 2,3,7 with 3,4,8 with 6 = 3 x 3 x 1 x $2 = $18
Total Wager: $42
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