Race 6: KALINE (#2, 10-1)
This is an excellent betting race because I am looking to defeat the two morning line favorites. Tropical Terror and Hammering Lemon are a combined 11/0-6-1 on the turf with the former having lost as the post time favorite three times. Although he ran second in his last start in these exact same conditions, Hammering Lemon should not have lost on July 10 as he enjoyed a comfortable trip on the front end through slow fractions and was worn down by the pace presser Cali Caliente. I respect Luvluv but I believe he will be bet down based on his trainer John Sadler and jockey Umberto Rispoli. Instead I want to back a new face trying turf for the first time and be bred for it and I landed on KALINE. He has run twice over the Tapeta at Golden Gate and each race was an improvement over the previous start. The son of Grazen made his career debut on May 24 where he lacked the early speed to keep up with the leaders racing four wide in midpack down the backstretch and continued that wide through the far turn and into the stretch where he turned in a respectable rally through the stretch to finish fourth against the grain race shape that favored horses on or near the lead with the first two finishers running first and second after the first quarter of a mile as Kaline was the only horse in that field to make up any ground through the stretch. The former Steve Specht trainee stretched out to two turns for the first time and ran into a gate to wire runaway winner Lookin for Revenge who flattered that event by returning to win on July 3 with a 79 Beyer Speed Figure (eight point improvement). In that race, he did the dirty work chasing or pressing the favored winner through fast fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (+6,+4) and was fast enough to earn a red coded TimeformUS pace figure. Kaline was outrun by the winner into the stretch and lost second on the wire. He is now transferred to the barn of Quinn Howley who conditions Indian Peak in the Grade 3 La Jolla and that trainee has a 4/2-2-0 record on the turf. Kaline is bred to adore the surface as her dam Way Up won four of thirteen starts on the turf including two of those routing on the turf. She has produced ten winners from fourteen foals including turf route winners, Wavy Lass (4-for-8), Unusual Way (1-for-4), Laditudefortytwo (1-for-5), Cowboy (2-for-5), and Cali Way (2-for-5). She got acclimated with her surroundings with five furlong move in 1:02.4 on July 30 that Handicapper’s Report clocker stated “not asked in this five furlong maintenance spin, going off in 37.4, moving easily in 102.2, just a leg stretcher for the Golden Gate invader, who should be seen with Cal-bred maidens.” Giovanni Franco takes over in the irons and he has landed a live mount with turf route oriented pedigree for a capable trainer and finds a weak field to graduate with his diploma drawn ideally in post position two.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (2) KALINE at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #1 Luvluv, #3 Table for Ten. Small reverse for each.
Race 8: GINOBLI (#5, 8-1)
This is a competitive sprint on the turf where the morning line favorite Tribalist is a now nine-year old returning off 221 day layoff. The Tribal Rule gelding is at home returning off extended breaks as this Blake Heap trainee has won off 375 days, 359 days, and 384 day layoffs in the past. However, it has been almost three years since Tribalist has visited the winner circle and even through the Handicapper’s Report clocker has raved about his workouts coming up to this event with consecutive B+ works last his two works, if his connections wanted to protect this horse off the long layoff he could have been eligible for the rule where a horse laid off and has not started for a minimum of 180 days since its last race is not eligible to be claimed but he is being risked for $40,000. Can this nine-year old win? The answer is yes but do I want back him at a short price considering the multiple layoff lines and the fact his connections opted not to protect him off the long layoff. The horses that exit the very fast turf sprint won by Speedy Justice I respect and will use those three underneath my top choice who returns to the turf sprinting. GINOBLI was an impressive gate to wire winner in his second career start and then was reeled back too soon (sixteen days) in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity that was marred by an incident with Storm the Court and Eight Rings soon after the start. He was fourth in his only start on the turf and made his three-year old debut off 126-day layoff in the Grade 2 San Vicente where he gave the undefeated Nadal all he could handle in his first start versus winners. The son of Munnings broke running to flash early speed in a contested speed duel parked four wide down the backstretch and sat just off the favored winner Nadal through the turn and in the stretch where Ginobli had the lead at mid-stretch and was worn down by Nadal as this was a fast pace he contested according to Moss Pace Figures (+11,+8) and earned a red coded TimeformUS pace figure. His two starts at Oaklawn Park were filled with trouble in each start. In his fifth place finish as the 4-5 favoritie, Ginobli missed the start by length and half, rushed up between horses to chase the dueling leaders who contested a very fast first quarter (+11), shuffled back on the turn, and tried his best to re-rally through the lane to split the ten horse field finishing in front of two next out winners. He stretched out to two turns in his last start and broke about a length slow at the start, rushed up between rivals into the first turn only to run up on horses' heels and was parked four wide throughout and remained in the hunt until midway on the far turn and gave way to finish seventh, beaten fifteen lengths. He has returned with four workouts as a new gelding and has impressed Handicapper’s Report clocker with consecutive B works including a visually impressive spin on August 2 where he worked in company with Fivestar Lynch and “took a short advantage in the stretch, then waited on his workmate, definitely going best late in 47.3, never asked, a good work for the three-year-old, who has been gelded since his last start and looked good here.” It appears the time away has helped this three-year old and sprinting is what he does best. With those two ugly running lines disguised in his past performances, I expect Ginobli to be overlooked.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (5) GINOBLI at 9-2 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #3 Distant Vista, #4 Torosay, #6 Capture the Sea. Small reverse for each.
Race 10: KANDEREL (#5, 10-1)
I respect the morning line favorite Smooth Like Strait as the field’s probable pacesetter but he can be challenged for the early lead by Indian Peak who displayed an premature move in his last start, Snow Chief, to challenge for the lead and did display a sharp middle move in a team work on July 30 here at Del Mar according to Handicapper’s Report clocker. The horse I am trying to beat in this race is second choice Storm the Court. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner is winless in four starts this year and now attempts to get back to form with the switch to the turf. He has recorded three turf workouts the past four weeks with the Handicapper’s Report clocker giving them B- with the comment of “appeared to handle the surface.” The main issue with Storm the Court is his pedigree to handle the surface switch. His sire, Court Vision, has produced only 9% (4-for-43) with turf routers the past five years and the information does not get better when you research the dam side. The dam, My Tejana Storm, won three of twelve starts all sprinting on the main track with a career best 92 Beyer Speed Figure and she has produced three winners from four starters. She has had only one starter try the turf, Belleoftheprairie, who won four of twenty-nine starts and won two of six starts on the turf but that was sprinting on the surface. She was winless in four starts routing on turf. Plus with his tactical speed he along with Indian Peak will look to chase or press Smooth Like Strait early and if the pace heats up during the middle part of this mile and a sixteenth event then it will set up very well for the improving KANDEREL. The son of Candy Ride enters this race in peak form having won and finished second in his last two starts and has displayed a wicked turn of late speed to suggest he can run down his rivals in the stretch. The Richard Mandella trainee managed to defeat four others in a key race turf sprint on May 15 that was too short for this colt. He stretched out to one-mile in the Alcatraz Stakes on June 13 where he stalked the uncontested leader Better Trip Nick in fourth early, moved up three wide on the far turn, angled three wide at the top of the stretch, drove to the front past mid-stretch, and safely held off the late bid of A Journey to Freedom defeating two next out winners in the process. Last time out he was dismissed at 17-1 in the Oceanside Stakes where he was compromised by rallying very wide while the favored winner, Hit the Road, enjoyed a perfect ground saving stalk and pounce trip. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran outside in the back half of the field, coiling up for run in the turn, looping 7-wide for the drive, unleashing a strong kick to run by the rest for 2nd.” Kanderel displayed an excellent turn of late speed running his third quarter in the co-fastest 24.15 seconds and ran his last quarter in the field’s best 23 seconds flat. He has returned with three workouts to indicate he has held his form and Juan Hernandez returns in the saddle. The dark bay or brown colt gets four pounds from the favorite and if he can manage to not lose alot of ground on the far turn and he has clear sailing at the top of the stretch then Kanderel can display that powerful late kick to run down Smooth Like Strait to score the upset.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (5) KANDEREL at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: 5-6. Reverse for half the amount.
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