Race 4: MONGOLIAN WINDOW (#4, 5-1)
The morning line favorite Perfect Ice Storm will get attention as the favorite with his percentage trainer-jockey combination of Peter Eurton and Umberto Rispoli who have connected at 56% rate (5-for-9) in the past year at Del Mar but based on handicapping the horse this daughter of He Be Fire and Ice is vulnerable. From five starts on a fast main track, he is winless in five starts on that surface with his lone in the money effort a third beaten fourteen and a half lengths in his previous start at Los Alamitos. This stalker from midpack also finds a field not loaded with plethora of early speed as TimeformUS pace projector sees this one-mile event favoring horses on or near the early lead and that scenario will favor MONGOLIAN WINDOW who defeated Perfect Ice Storm in their only encounter on July 2 where she encountered conditions similar to today’s event. In that aforementioned event, granddaughter of Distorted Humor enjoyed an ideal trip chasing the uncontested leader Tiz Toffee through slow early fractions for the first half mile according to Moss Pace Figures (-5,-6). She inherited the lead midway on the far turn and was challenged by the closer Meso at the top of the stretch and she simply refused to let that rival by earning a competitive 70 Beyer and 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Enebish Ganbat trainee was reeled back in twenty-five days and stepped up to Allowance N1X for optional claiming price of $40,000 and found the class level and the fast early pace too tiring to finish fourth beaten sixteen and half lengths. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “contested the pace between runners into the first turn, settled just off the pacesetter onto the backstretch, traveled between runners to the far turn, unresponsive to urging in the far turn, grinded home.” The early pace for the first half mile was fast earning above par Moss Pace Figures (+21,+6) explaining the fourth place finish. She has come back with a maintenance three furlong move on August 9 that Handicapper’s Report clocker described as a “leg stretcher.” In a race with only one other confirmed pace rival, Destiny’s Journey, Mongolian Window should go straight for the early lead under Ruben Fuentas and prove a tough rival to run down on the drop in class and easier pace scenario to work with.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (4) MONGOLIAN WINDOW at 3-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 4 with #5 Operatic. Small reverse for each.
Race 8: MANRESA (#7, 8-1)
The morning line First Empress defeated five of her rivals when second on July 26 behind the gate to wire winner Destiny’s Journey. The daughter of Cairo Prince enjoyed ideal conditions in that race as she was forwardly placed close to moderate early pace according to Moss Pace Figures for the first six furlongs (-2,0) and raced the majority off the rail on a main track that had a strong bad rail bias. She will not find the same trip in this event as Billy K, Samandah and Miss Bennet will be forwardly placed on or near the front end and if the pace takes it toll it could unfold for the long shot MANRESA who finished six and quarter lengths behind First Empress last time out but did not have the best trips as she was hampered by the bad rail bias. She broke her maiden on June 13 with perfect trip chasing the loose leader La Sabalera early, took over the lead midway on the far turn to open up three length lead at midstretch, and won by six and a half lengths defeating a subpar field as the four horses behind her came back to finish off the board in their next start. The daughter of Coil faced restricted claiming company for the first time on July 26 and ran a sneaky good race that the angled in second, best of rest comment in your past performances would indicate. She “raced at the tail of the field, began to wind up approaching the half-mile pole, launched three-wide into the far turn, dove to the rail approaching the quarter-pole, rallied into third, labored on the tiring rail inside of the eighth-pole.” Not only did she raced on the turn and through the stretch on a bad rail she attempted to make her rally from off the pace but also a speed bias. She will make her first start off the claim for Gary Stute who connects at 21% (4-for-19) in the past five years with that move on the main track. Jockey Eswan Flores takes over in the irons for the first time and should find an honest pace for her late kick. On a week where Mel Stute passed away at the age of 93, it would be fitting for his son Gary to win his first start after his father’s passing at what should be a juicy price given the margin of defeat in his last start and low speed figures.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (7) MANRESA at 5-1 or better.
Main Exactas: #7 with #3 Midnight Garden, #8 Awesome Amanda. Small reverse for each.
Daily Double part-wheel: (7) MANRESA with (8) GOLDEN DOUGHNUT
Race 9: GOLDEN DOUGHNUT (#8, 6-1)
The morning line favorite Whopping Jay was second beaten only half length in the Cal Dreaming Stakes versus California bred company nineteen days ago. The son of Square Eddie encountered an ideal pace scenario to flatter his late running style as Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “raced three-wide at the back of the pack, traveled keenly onto the backstretch, settled down approaching the half-mile pole, responded well to urging in the far turn, rallied six-wide into the lane, laid in, charged down the center of the track, ran at the leader late, rebuffed on his wrong lead.” The fast pace noted by TimeformUS red coded pace figure, saw the first four finishers rally from fourth, eighth, seventh, and tenth in a complete pace collapsed. Instead I am going to select a horse I made a top choice on July 12 that was compromised by an ill timed ride in that race. GOLDEN DOUGHNUT will make his third start following the 994-day layoff and each race off the layoff is better than the one before. He returned from almost a three-year layoff on June 20 where he was dismissed as the longest shot on the tote board at 53-1 and he outran those odds to finish third. He traveled in a comfortable spot on the rail in mid-field behind a very fast early (red coded pace figures) pressed by the winner Shadow Spinx, moved into contention on the far turn, tipped out to have dead aim at the winner at the top of the stretch, stayed on through the stretch while no match for the winner, and lost second Boogalute who rallied from sixth. I thought he could move forward on July 12 in his second start off the long layoff where he was 15-1 on the morning line and was bet down to 9-2 and received a poor ride from Humberto Figueroa where if he waited longer he would have won. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “bumped by JETOVATOR at the start, tracked inside, moved prematurely along the rail leaving the backstretch to vie for command then took over into the far turn, inched away leaving that bend and into the lane, collared deep stretch, hung tough, outfinished late. If Figueroa just waited, he likely wins.” The pace he chased and made that premature move was very fast earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures in a race that collapsed for the off the pace runners with the first three finishers rallied from eleventh, seventh, and ninth after the first half mile as he earned a TimeformUS Speed Figure higher than the winner Ostini because he was close to that fast pace. This stalker will just need a better timed ride from jockey Mike Smith as he looks primed for a winning performance in his third race off the layoff and I expect him to make amends as he is in good form.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (8) GOLDEN DOUGHNUT at 7-2 or better.
Main Exactas: #8 with #4 Sea of Liberty, #7 Jetovator. Small reverse for each.
This is excellent...thanks
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