Race 8: HOTITUDE (#6, 6-1)
The morning line favorite Leggs Galore exits a maiden win versus California breds on August 7 where she earned the field’s highest last race 80 Beyer Speed Figure and 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure on turf. She was able to enjoy a relatively easy trip where according to the Handicapper’s Report trip notes she “dueled two-deep early, took a short lead leaving the backstretch, kicked away around the far turn, well clear into the stretch, held sway to the wire.” She was able establish a moderate early pace and was loose on the far turn without any early pressure. The Bayern filly steps up to face winners for the first time and will find serious early speed in the two rivals directly outside of her, Habobanero and Hotitude, in a race where TimeformUS pace projector suggests will be run at a very fast early pace. One of those pace rivals ran an excellent race in defeat versus open company on the main track in her last start and if she can duplicate that effort going a shorter distance she has a chance to spring the upset. HOTITUDE has raced on turf only once where she finished last in a nine horse field but one can draw a line through that race because it was at one mile. She returned from a 127 day layoff on September 14 where she scored the gate to wire victory but accomplished that victory under ideal circumstances where she led throughout through very slow early fractions earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-13,-3) for the first half mile and won by three quarters of a length. She took the rest of 2019 off and returned from a 293 day layoff on July 3 where she was dismissed as the second longest shot on the toteboard at 20-1 and she ran a career best race in her four year old seasonal debut. The daughter of Heat Shield shot out of the front to make the lead and pressed early down the backstretch, shook free of her rival around the far turn, and maintained a two length lead at mid stretch only to be run down by favored midpack stalker Ava’s Charm who rallied from fifth early. She set a very fast early pace according to Moss Pace Figures (+7,+3) earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures that favored horses off the pace with the first and third place finishers rallied from fifth and eighth early. She makes her second race off the long layoff with five works including a best of seven half mile spin on the turf eight days ago in 47.3 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+ stating “full of zip on the grass reaching late in 24.2, 47.2 (23.0 LQ). Perked up with a lively move.” Juan Hernandez takes over in the irons and I expect this Kristin Mulhull trainee to use her early speed as her best weapon.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (6) HOTITUDE at 9-2 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #9 Smiling Annie. Small reverse for each.
Race 9: GINGHAM (#1, 6-1)
I do not have knocks against the morning line favorite Sneaking Out as California bred daughter of Indian Evening should get a great pace prompting trip outside of Mother of Dragons and Artistic Diva and owns the field’s highest last race Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figures of 92 and 112 respectively. My stand is against the second choice on the morning line Unique Factor who has won once in eight starts this year and that lone victory was on June 28 at Churchill Downs where she took advantage of a fast pace speed duel that saw the first two finishers rally from ninth and eighth early. In that race, she was wrangled back to trail the speed duel down the backstretch, she steadied briefly off heels into the far turn, angled four wide and made a wide move on the far turn to reach contention at the top of the stretch, and rallied past the battling leaders to win by a length earning a career best 86 Beyer and 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She exits a sixth place finish in the Grade 1 Madison Stakes at Keeneland and in my opinion she does not have the best late kick in this field as GINGHAM showed a nice burst of late speed to win the Angel Flight Stakes on June 13 at Santa Anita. The daughter of Quality Road rallied to be second behind multiple Grade 1 placed Venetian Harbor on February 8 where the winner returned to run second in the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes behind recent Grade 1 Alabama winner Swiss Skydiver, in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes behind Kentucky Oaks bound Speech, and recently was second behind Gamine the prohibitive favorite in the Grade 1 Test Stakes. She managed to split the field in the Gardenia Stakes on May 1 at Oaklawn Park where she was returning off a 83 day layoff. The Bob Baffert trainee cut back to today’s distance for the first time in the Angel Flight Stakes and despite the pace not being quick early, she was able to rally from last in the field of five to win by a one length drawing clear to the wire. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “trailed early then raced inside the runner-up at the rear, waited behind horses at the rear around the far turn, angled out upper stretch, rallied past midstretch, ran by the leader late, drew clear to the wire.” The impressive part about this win was the slow pace she overcame as the Moss Pace Figures found the first half mile very slow for the first half mile (-9,-7) earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. She has returned with nine workouts with seven of those over this main track including a five furlong move in 59.4 on August 6 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “tracked and drew clear from barnmate Happy Hepo in this lively move in 35.3, 59.4. Going well down here.” The bay filly should get a fast pace for her late kick with Artistic Diva going to the early lead with Mother of Dragons vying for the lead and the favorite Sneaking Out forwardly placed to the lead. Jockey Mike Smith will settle this filly early and unleash her late kick at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (1) GINGHAM to WIN at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #5 Sneaking Out. Small reverse.
Race 10: EDDIE’S SISTER (#4, 8-1)
This is a field that is filled with proven losers over the turf. The two morning line favorites are a combined 7/0-2-2 on the turf with the morning line favorite Rockie Causeway rallied to be second the perfect trip winner Empress of Fire and this daughter of Giant’s Causeway will be favored with the best recent finish on the turf and her high percentage turf rider Flavien Prat. She has the appearance of a trial maiden and this race looks ripe for a fresh face in EDDIE’S SISTER who has lost her two starts by a combined thirty one and quarter lengths. Those defeats were sprinting on the main track and based on her pedigree she will adore the stretch out to two turns on the turf. She made her debut last November here at Del Mar where she was working well enough to be bet down to the 1-1 post time favorite and was compromised by a fast pace speed duel with the second choice and runner up Elgofranco as those two battled through fast opening quarter that was above par according to Moss Pace Figure (+4) and earned red coded TimeformUS pace figure and she weakened from this speed duel to finish fifth. The daughter of Square Eddie did not race for the rest of the 2019 and returned from a 231 day layoff on July 5 and finished last in a nine horse field beaten 22-½ lengths where she ran into a better than average California bred maiden field. The Phil D’Amato trainee was bumped at the break, moved up to set the early pace along the deeper inside paths at Los Alamitos, continued to set a quick pace around the turn and into the stretch, and retreated through the lane to finish last. The race only earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure but it was flattered when the winner returned to run second with a 80 Beyer Speed Figure finishing second in a California bred Allowance N1X on July 27 and fourth place finisher Empress of Fire returned to stretch out and win one mile turf maiden event on the July 27 with a 72 Beyer Speed Figure. She is finally stretching out to two turns and trying grass for the first time and her pedigree indicates she will adore both the surface and distance. Her dam, Sister Sally, won twice from five starts routing on the turf and she has passed that affinity for routing on the turf to her progeny. Sir Vronski (5-for-10), Sircat Sally (5-for-6), and Madam Sophia (1-for-3) were all turf route winners and Eddie’s Sister looks to continue in that successful lineage. She has returned with five works including her last four over this main track that two of them caught the attention of National Turf’s Andy Harrington to give them Bs where she “best over a set of three leading Master Ryan (second in MSW on August 8) and Jewel Thief (winner of Starter Allowance on August 14) in 23.4, 48.0 easy out in 100.4. Some stride here.” She is quickest out of the gate breaking towards the inside and I expect Abel Cedillo to use her early speed to make the early lead and if she runs to her works and her impressive turf pedigree she can spring a surprise in the finale.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (4) EDDIE’S SISTER to WIN at 5-1 or higher.
No other plays.
Del Mar Pick 3 Race 8:
Race 8: (6) HOTITUDE, (9) Smiling Annie
Race 9: (1) GINGHAM, (4) Sneaking Out
Race 10: (4) EDDIE’S SISTER
Ticket 1: 6 with 1,4 with 4 = 1 x 2 x 1 x $3 = $6
Ticket 2: 6,9 with 1 with 4 = 2 x 1 x 1 x $3 = $6
Ticket 3: 6 with 1 with 4 = 1 x 1 x 1 x $6 = $6
Total Wager: $18
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