Race 6: OUTLAW (#4, 8-1)
The two morning line favorites, Mayan Warrior and Vander Khan, are stalkers that come from midpack that need a fast pace for their late kick. Mayan Warrior is the most consistent in this field having finished in the money in all four starts with two wins and he comes off a third place finish behind the gate to wire winner P.R Radio Star who was able to set a moderate early pace en route to his third straight victory. His two previous wins both came when he rallied from midpack. Vander Khan finished ahead of only one entrant when defeated by P.R. Radio Star in that same race and he ran third in his prior start behind a slow pace set by the gate to wire winner Posterize. The morning line favorites were compromised by gate to wire winner that was allowed to dictate terms on the front and today’s race sees those circumstances as OUTLAW is the quickest horse early and takes this field gate to wire under Flavien Prat. The son of Violence has finished in the money in one of five starts this year but his last two starts, one at Los Alamitos versus Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses, and last time here at Del Mar he caught fields with abundance of early speed and he will not encounter that scenario in this race. In that fourth place finish versus Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses on June 13 he found two very fast thoroughbreds in Hardcore Troubador and Rule He Will as those two opened up a four length lead on Outlaw down the backstretch and into the turn, Outlaw tipped out at the top of the stretch but offered no late kick as the winner Make it a Triple rallied from next to last in the field of five to win. He stretched out to six and a half furlongs on July 24 and he was part of a vicious speed duel that resulted in the winner, Heart Full of Stars, to rally from last to win. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, Outlaw “broke inward, fighting inside to the turn, slipping back by the ¼ pole, dropping away in the lane.” The early fractions of this race were very fast as it earned above par Moss Pace Figures (+7, +4) and the form of this early pace was flattered when the runner-up, Horse Greedy, returned to win for $22,500 claiming event duplicating his 82 Beyer Speed Figure on August 16. The gelding drops one level in class and shortens up to his preferred six furlong distance where he has yet to finish no worse than second in four starts with two wins. He has maintained his speed with two works including a best of 113 half mile spin on August 16 in 47 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Last 3f working past the line in 35.2 while let run a bit. Maybe enough.” Expect Flavien Prat to be aggressive early and take it to this field on the front end and make every pole a winning one at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (4) OUTLAW to WIN at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #7 I Belong to Becky, #2 More Honor, #9 Vander Kelen. No reverse.
Daily Double part-wheel: (4) OUTLAW with (3) Synthesis, (6) Worthy Turk, (8) Hootie.
Race 7: WORTHY TURK (#6, 4-1)
The two morning line favorites, Southern King and Hootie, are two horses that I have notes on that benefited from their recent wins this year. The morning line favorite Southern King visited the winner’s circle on the last day of the spring-summer meet at Santa Anita where he sat a perfect trip in third behind two dueling leaders, Lincoln City and Turn the Switch, on the rail for the first six furlongs, tipped out into the two path at top of the stretch, and it took the entire length of the stretch for Southern King to wear down the stubborn Lincoln City to win by a neck with the runner-up best in that race as he disputed for the early lead. Hootie exits a win over layout on July 27 where he was second to last behind a very fast pace for the first half mile that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figure and he won going away in a race that completely collapsed for closers with the first three finishers rallied from ninth, eighth, and tenth after the first half mile. One horse that finished behind Hootie and third place finisher French Getaway and could have been closer with a cleaner trip is our top choice WORTHY TURK who split the eleven horse field. This Lemon Drop Kid gelding was ultra consistent in his first two turf route starts this year with a win and second place finish before running sixth behind the pace pressing winner Shadow Sphinx on June 20 at Santa Anita where he raced in midpack behind a very fast early pace that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures, loomed up four wide into the far turn, outrun at that point while under a drive on the turn, and ran one paced to the wire to finish sixth. The Peter Miller trainee dropped in for a claiming price of $25,000 on July 27 where he was sent off as the 5-2 post time favorite and did not have the cleanest of journey according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. The chestnut gelding “traveled midfield down the backstretch, waited behind a wall of runners in the far turn, on hold to midstretch, blocked, dove inside, weaved through traffic, briefly clear, in hand across the wire.” Note that both horses that finished in front of him that return today, Hootie and French Getaway, had clear wide runs into the stretch as the latter rallied four wide and the eventual winner rallied five wide into the stretch with Worthy Turk in traffic through the entire stretch and would have been right there with a clear journey. He gets a comfortable four pound break in the weights because he has won only one race at a mile or over since May 23, 2020 and has returned with two works including impressive five furlong move in 1:00.3 on August 15 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “Nifty with Tammy's Window moving up with power in 38.1, 101.4 going 6f in 114.0. Strong out of last.” Flavien Prat remains aboard and with a clean trip I can see him turning the tables on French Getaway and Hootie in a race that starts the late Pick 5.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (6) WORTHY TURK at 5-2 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #3 Synthesis, #2 French Getaway, #8 Hootie.
Small Exacta: #3 Synthesis, #8 Hootie with #6 Worthy Turk.
Race 9: BOMBARD (#2, 10-1)
This is one of the most competitive events you will see on today’s card if you look outside of the two favorites this race is wide open. The morning line favorite Mo Forza returns from a 211 day layoff when he was last seen finishing ninth in the Pegasus World Turf Cup behind the rail skimming rally of subsequent multiple Grade 2 winner Zulu Alpha. Before that debacle, he swept Southern California three-year old turf stakes winning the Twilight Derby and Hollywood Derby. He was bothered by wide trips in his last two starts and he should not get that journey today with post position three, taking the blinkers off, and getting Flavien Prat. Despite the positive B and B+ grades from National Turf’s Andy Harrington, trainer Peter Miller does not do well with his turf route starters returning off layoffs of more than six months as he is 8/0-0-2 with his turf starters returning off a layoff between 180 to 250 days in a route race. The second choice Galilean won the restricted California Dreamin Stakes with a perfect trip over this layout on July 26. He will get support but I am looking elsewhere and landed on BOMBARD who is making his second start off 371 day layoff where he received the perfect tune up for this race with a game second place finish on July 26 sprinting on the turf that sets him up to stretch out to one mile. This seven-year old gelding has shown signs of having a versatile running style in the previous two editions of the Wickker Stakes at this one-mile distance here at Del Mar. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes from the 2018 edition of the Wickker Stakes, this son of War Front “stalked the pace two-deep, did not quicken as the winner ran by him while between horses leaving the far turn, came out four-wide into the drive, finally rallied the final stages, was bumped lightly late by the winner right near the wire, lost the photo.” In the 2019 version of that aforementioned event, the Richard Mandella trainee was able to make the early lead receiving token early pressure from his rival Double Touch, put that rival away at the top of the stretch, opened up a two length lead past mid-stretch, and held off subsequent Grade 1 Pacific Classic winner Higher Power to win by a half length. That was his last race of 2019 and he returned from more than a year layoff in Allowance N3X turf sprint on July 26 and ran very well in defeat behind the rail skimming last to first rally of Sparky Ville to lose by a head. The dark bay or brown gelding flashed good early speed to battle for the lead with the Northern Californian invader Baja Sur as those two locked up in their own little match race all the way to the top of the stretch when Baja Sur poke his head in front but Bombard battled back gamely in deep stretch to retake the lead only to get caught on the wire by Sparky Ville. He galloped out in front of the entire field after the wire as this race served as perfect prep for the stretch out to his preferred distance of one mile. He has returned with two easy maintenance works since that come back effort and draws Drayden Van Dyke for the first time who should get this gelding a ground saving stalk and pounce trip with the probable pacesetter, Kiwi’s Dream, gunning for the early lead from post position nine in this ten horse field. He is the other Richard Mandella trainee that has proven form over this Del Mar turf course and has recency advantage over the others as the best value play in the Del Mar Mile over my second preference Kiwi’s Dream.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (2) BOMBARD to WIN at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #3 Galilean, #9 Overdue, #10 Kiwi’s Dream.
Small Exacta: #10 Kiwi’s Dream with #2 Bombard.
Daily Double part-wheel: (2) Bombard, (10) Kiwi’s Dream with (2) Jamming Eddy
Race 10: JAMMING EDDY (#2, 6-1)
The two morning line favorites are vulnerable in this Allowance N1X as Julius has yet to taste defeat in his previous two starts here at Del Mar but those wins came under ideal conditions where he was loose on an uncontested lead and was allowed to dictate moderate fractions in each of those wins on July 10 and August 2. He finds quality other speed in this field where he will most likely not get the early lead that he is accustomed to. Express Train returns off a 331 day layoff where this sprint is being used a prep to stretch out as he broke his maiden by fourteen and a quarter lengths in his second career start and trainer John Shirreffs is 6/0-0-2 with his dirt starters returning off a layoff of more than 180 days in a dirt sprint indicating his starters need a race. Instead, I am going to back a dirt sprinter with recency and can cope with fast fractions and that horse is JAMMING EDDY who exits an excellent runner up effort behind the favored comebacker Microithms on August 2 and a similar performance in this race will be good enough to win. The California bred Square Eddie gelding was an easy winner at this same distance on June 7 where he fought for the early lead, shook free of his rival past the quarter pole, and was “lightly hand ridden down the lane to stay clear to the wire,” according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. This win does come with a negative factor as he set a pressured pace through very slow fractions earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-12,-3). The Peter Miller trainee shortened up an eighth of a mile to five and a half furlongs on August 2 and he ran a winning race earning a close to par 87 Beyer Speed Figure and he had to earn this speed figure the hard way. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “pressed the pace four-deep down the backstretch, loomed large past the quarter-pole, spun his wheels to deep stretch, ran at the leader late, and came up short.” The pace of this sprint was very fast as it was off the chart Moss Pace Figures (+8,+5) and two of the pace rivals that he dueled with, Oil Can Knight and Drop the Chalupa, weakened to finish fourth beaten two lengths and fifth beaten three lengths. He stretches back out to the distance of his previous win two starts back and he drawn in post position two where he is the speed of this field as the others in this field that can challenge him for the lead, Drop the Chalupa, Oil Can Knight, and Shane Zain, will not be able to survive dueling for the lead with Jamming Eddy for the first half mile. Flavien Prat remains in the saddle for the third consecutive time and I expect him to make every pole a winning one at a morning line that is too high on this gray or roan gelding.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (2) JAMMING EDDY to WIN at 7-2 or better.
Main Exactas: #2 with #4 Heartfullofstars, #5 Appreciated, #10 Big Scotty Daddy.
Small Exacta: #10 Big Scotty Daddy with #2 Jamming Eddy.
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