Race 3: BEEN STUDYING HER (#1, 2-1)
Morning line favorite Golden Principal returns from a 224 day layoff in this Allowance N1X dirt sprint for fillies or mares for trainer Bob Baffert who has won at gaudy 36% (16-for-45) with his dirt sprinters returning from 170 to 250 day layoff. The daughter of Constitution comes into this race with a series of blazing works over the Del Mar main track to make the Handicapper’s Report Fit and Ready list after consecutive B+ works over this same racetrack that she broke her maiden in her career debut. Outside of the expected short price, the one factor that could leave her vulnerable is the rival directly outside of her Biddy Duke who has been on the lead and no more than three-quarters off the length at the first pace call in her previous eight starts sprinting on the main track including a game runner up effort last time out at Pleasanton where she battled through very fast fractions to earn eye popping red coded TimeformUS pace figures. If those two hook up this will be the ideal race shape for BEEN STUDYING HER who has been compromised by the lack of early speed in her last two starts sprinting. The California bred daughter of Fast Anna made her second start following a 119 day layoff on June 13 in the Angel Flight Stakes at Santa Anita, got the jump over the favored Gingham to take over the lead past mid-stretch, but was run down by the last run over the favored winner to lose by a length finishing 5-¼ lengths in front of Biddy Duke in the process in a winning effort in defeat earning a 83 Beyer Speed Figure that is the par for this class level. In her last start, Fleet Street Stakes, on July 24 she was badly compromised by the lack of early speed while the favored winner Big Sweep took advantage of the race flow to win by 2-¼ lengths. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “ran inside 2 lengths down, easing back heading into the turn, re-engaging, drafting into the lane, all-out, unable to make inroads.” Her rally looks better than her beaten margin would suggest as she made this rally against the grain of moderate fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (-1,-4) that earn blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. Despite the 81 Beyer Speed Figure, the 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure is a better indicator of her effort considering the slow pace is taken into account with TimeformUS speed figures. She has a recency advantage over her main rival and has returned with two maintenance workouts including a “leg stretching” five furlong move in 1:02 flat according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker with last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner up Donna Veloce on August 7 at Del Mar. She is the second choice on the morning line and I will use her as a single in my recommended Daily Double and cold single Pick 3 wager to the next two races in the sequence.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (1) BEEN STUDYING HER at 2-1 or better.
Daily Double: (1) BEEN STUDYING HER with (1) SABINOS PRIDE
Pick 3: (1) BEEN STUDYING HER with (1) SABINOS PRIDE with (7) HORSE GREEDY
Race 4: SABINOS PRIDE (#1, 6-1)
Although the TimeformUS pace projector suggests this race will unfold at a moderate early pace favoring horses on or near the front end, this race could have a contested pace. Since returning from seventy six day layoff, Rather Nosy has contested for the early lead in her two races and a third place finish over these exact same conditions on July 11. The morning line favorite My Little Runaway has led at the first pace call in four of her previous five starts and those two will contend for the early lead and if that scenario happens it will favor SABINOS PRIDE who can lead or rally from off the pace. The Liam’s Map filly showed early speed on June 14 where she was allowed to set a very fast pace earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures on an uncontested lead and ran her rivals off their feet to win by a diminishing one length with the first three finishers ran first, second, and third at each call in a race flow that favored speed. She defeated a “key” race field in the process as the third place finisher Kleen Karma returned to win at the exact same condition on August 2 earning an improved 78 Beyer Speed Figure (six points) and fifth place finisher Destiny’s Journey switched to the main track and won her next two starts earning Beyer Speed Figures of 71 and 77 respectively. She switched to the main track in her first start off the Jorge Periban claim on July 11 and ran second behind the pace pressing winner Teacher’s Big Dream but a closer inspection of that race reveals she outran her 20-1 odds to finish second in this better than looked performance. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “raced five-wide into the first turn, raced at the back of the pack down the backstretch, unhurried to the quarter-pole, bid behind horses into the lane, angled out, finished powerfully on her wrong lead, ran out of real estate, galloped out on top.” She lost more ground than margin of defeat would indicate and today she goes from post position seven in a seven horse field to the rail in a six horse field where jockey J.C. Diaz Jr. should use his fillies tactical speed to get a ground saving trip stalking contested pace between Rather Nosy and My Little Runaway and get the jump on class dropper Shanghai Truffle. She is 6-1 on the morning line and hopefully we can get all of that price with the attention centered around the three morning line favorites.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (1) SABINOS PRIDE at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #3 Rather Nosy, #5 Shanghai Truffle. No reverse.
Daily Double: (1) SABINOS PRIDE with (7) HORSE GREEDY
Race 5: HORSE GREEDY (#7, 2-1)
When racing returned on July 24, my horses to watch list went immediately to work on the first race won by the opportunistic closer Heart Full of Stars. The horse that ran the best race in defeat was the beaten favorite and our top choice HORSE GREEDY who ran second and did all the dirty work on the front end to set up for the winner who rallied from sixth and last early. The seven year old Horse Greeley gelding returned from a 134 day layoff on June 6 at this distance versus Allowance N1X/Optional Claiming $40,000 and was “urged from the gate to duel inside then stalked out of the chute,” according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. He started to retreat into and around the far turn and was not preserved through the stretch, finishing fifth and last, beaten eleven and a quarter lengths in a race that unfolded at a slow early pace earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-5,-1) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures where the first two finishers ran first and second at each call. That race might have served as a tune up for Del Mar as he has two previous wins over this main track and he dropped back to the lowest level of his career, $20,000, on July 24 and won the battle for the early lead only to lose the war. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “dueled between horses, shedding pace rivals in the turn, trying to fight off a fresh foe, faltering mid stretch, fading the final 1/16th.” He dueled through a fast pace earning above average Moss Pace Figures (+7,+4) and the fast pace took its toll on his pace rivals as they tired to finish fourth beaten 11-¾ lengths and fifth beaten 16 lengths as Horse Greedy earned the field’s top last race Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure of 83 and 110 respectively. He was claimed for $20,000 and made one level jump to $25,000 for trainer Peter Miller who has won at 38% (9-for-24) in the past five years at Del Mar with dirt sprinters making their first start off the claim for this barn. He is ideally drawn outside of his main pace rival, Posterize, and should enjoy a perfect pace prompting trip in the clear, shake free of that rival around the turn, and pull clear as the morning line favorite in a race that concludes the Sunday early Pick 5 at Del Mar.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (7) HORSE GREEDY at 9-5 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #7 with #4 Posterize, #1 Oh Marvelous Me. No reverse.
Race 10: MAXIM RATE (#2, 7-2)
The morning line favorite Siberian Iris is at home over this Del Mar turf course and at today’s 1-⅜ distance with a win and second from three starts including last year’s edition of CTTTOC Stakes that she won by a neck over Over Thinking who returns for this year’s edition. She is the apparent class of this field having competed against Grade 1 and Grade 3 company in her last four starts including a runner up effort in the San Juan Capistrano last time out versus males. However a closer inspection of her record reveals she is not automatic to defend her title in this race. She lacks winning spirit with a record 21/3-7-3 as her late rallies from off the pace often fall short with combined ten seconds or thirds. In addition, her second place finish in the San Juan Capistrano does not look so good when you consider that five horses have run back and it has produced one third place finish and four off the board finishes. I want a new face in the turf distaff division in Southern California and landed on MAXIM RATE who will attempt to stretch her late kick to 1-⅜ for the first time but she has a couple of positive factors that suggest she can get this trip. She entered this race in peak form in her third race off a 203 day layoff as she lost a narrow decision to Colonial Creed June 14 at Santa Anita as she maintained her off the rally through the stretch only to lose the stretch battle with the eventual winner in an encouraging first start as a four year old. The gray daughter of Exchange Rate returned twenty six days later and parlayed a perfect ground saving trip to win by a half length in Allowance N2X that has returned to be a very productive event. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “found a steady rhythm inside at the back, staying inside for the final turn, responding with an acceleration to drive up between foes, storming to the lead in the final 1/16th, holding her momentum through the wire.” She earned the field’s highest last race Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figures of 92 and 113 respectively and the validity of that speed figure has already been validated. Tonahutu returned to duplicate her 92 Beyer Speed Figure and earned an improved 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure (three points) when second beaten a nose in the Grade 2 John Mabee in her next start, third place finisher Pulpit Rider returned to win the Solona Beach Stakes versus California breds in her next start, and fourth place finisher duplicated her 88 Beyer Speed Figure finishing third at this class level beaten a half length in her next start. The distance is a concern as she stretches out an additional three-eighths of a mile but she will conserve her energy and save ground around three turns under Del Mar’s leading turf rider Umberto Rispoli (18 turf wins). The Simon Callaghan trainee has returned with three workouts that the Handicapper Report’s clocker termed as maintenance moves as this “turf filly appears on top of her game.” I expect her to get a ground saving trip chasing expected leader Ms. Peintour and get first jump on last year’s first two finishers to score a minor upset.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (2) MAXIM RATE at 2-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #8 Over Thinking, #4 Quick. Small reverse for each.
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