Race 8: OIL CAN KNIGHT (#1, 5-1)
The morning line favorite Microrithms will be fancied in the wagering based on his trainer Bob Baffert who won Shared Belief Stakes with Thousand Words, debuting maiden winner Freedom Fighter, and Grade 1 Whitney with Improbable on Saturday. Also, this gelding won at this Allowance N1X condition already on a sloppy/sealed main track on December 6, 2018 at Los Alamitos and in his most recent win won Allowance N2X defeating two next out winners in Captain Scotty and Distinctive B who returned to earn 99 and 94 Beyer Speed Figures respectively. The two issues I have with the morning line favorite are his soundness and that Allowance N2X was flattered by pace and track condition. He will make only his sixth start as a six-year old as this is the second time he is returning off a extended layoff as he returned from a 482 day layoff on November 3, 2018 and ran second beaten a neck as the 5-2 post time favorite and today he is returning off a 549-day layoff being risked for a claiming price of $40,000 for the first time. Secondly, his latest victory where he earned a career and field’s best last race 99 Beyer Speed Figure. However, that win was flattered by sloppy/sealed main track that strongly favored inside-speed on Janaury 31, 2019 that Microrithms rode and the fractions on paper look fast but when taken into account the track variant those fractions were moderate per the Moss Pace Figures (-1,-1) and were very slow to earn blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. I will look for a horse with recency and landed on OIL CAN KNIGHT who since being claimed for $25,000 by trainer Steve Knapp has sprinted on a fast main track three times with two wins. Although his previous win on a fast main track at today’s distance on May 15 saw the first seven finishers seperated by only four and a quarter lengths at the wire, he showed a lot of determination fending off more than one challenge in what returned to be a “key” race. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran 4-wide on the front, pushing forward 3-wide to take the lead midturn, failing to achieve any margin, trading punches, digging deep to fend off stubborn foes to the wire.” The runner-up, Kneedeepinsnow, returned to duplicate his 90 Beyer Speed Figure winning his next start and third-place finisher Galilean returned to win his next two starts with Beyer Speed Figures of 90 and 93 in the process. His most recent start where he was virtually eased through the stretch beaten sixty-four and half lengths one can dismiss as the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “his race was compromised by the bad start, and makes today a complete throwout.” He returned with three workouts including a five furlong move in 1:01.1 on July 19 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B commented “Improved drill going home with energy while holding a shorter working All Star Heat at bay, galloping well past the wire for the Knapp barn. Sure looks better than last.” He returns for the optional $40,000 claiming price at a condition he won two starts back but he remains above his original claiming price which is a positive sign. From the rail with hustling rider Edwin Maldonado returning in the irons I expect him to be one of the leaders in the first quarter of a mile and if he shows the same determination he flashed in that May 15 win he will be a tough rival to run down.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (1) OIL CAN KNIGHT at 7-2 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #7 Drop the Chalupa. Small reverse.
Daily Double: #1, #7 with #2 Savvy Gal
Race 9: SAVVY GAL (#2, 8-1)
The morning line favorite Colombian Gold drops to a restricted three-year old $40,000 claiming event today after finishing tenth and last in Allowance N1X on opening weekend. Despite the class drop, this Dialed In filly broke her maiden in her seventh career start on June 7 at Santa Anita where she defeated a below average $62,500 maiden claiming field and did so with a perfect ride by Flavien Prat and an ideal pace scenario. She sat off the pacesetter Constantia through the first six furlongs through moderate fractions, disposed of that rival at the top of the stretch, and kicked clear, earning a career best 75 Beyer and 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That field was subpar as nine horses behind her returned and it produced one winner, one runner-up, two third-place finishes, and five off the board finishes. She will not find that race shape this afternoon as the expected leader handled a fast pace speed duel in her comeback performance off the layoff and will be fitter in her second race into her form cycle over a turf course she loves. SAVVY GAL returns to Del Mar where she broke her maiden in her career debut at this distance as a two-year-old and ran second behind the Grade 2 placed Guitty in her last start over the Del Mar turf course. The daughter of Street Sense appeared to be off form when she finished last beaten fifteen and three-quarter lengths in her third start of this year but that last place finish was the result of her chasing the gate to wire winner Parkour who established very fast fractions to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures in the process. With her history of running well here at Del Mar, she returned eighty-two day layoff on June 12 where she recorded only two workouts leading up to that race a three furlong and a half mile workout and she figured to not be one hundred percent for her return race and yet to ran very well in defeat to win the early pace battle through fast fractions that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and setup for the off the pace runners as first three finishers rallied from sixth, fourth, and fifth after the first half-mile. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she was “sent to lead, came under pressure into and around the first turn and onto the backside, dueled nearing the half-mile pole, put away that rival to shake clear early on the far turn, collared again in the stretch, outrun midstretch, weakened badly. She likely needed this race and could do better in a less pace-filled race.” She drops another class level to $40,000 today and with that comeback race under her belt and with four workouts since that return effort, SAVVY GAL should be fitter in her second race off the layoff. Moreover, the pace scenario will suit her front running style as she is the leader in TimeformUS early pace rating by fourteen points over her next speed rival, the overmatched Dont’s Stop Looking. With Humberto Figueroa returning in the saddle, she should easily make the lead into the first turn and prove tough to catch for trainer Richard Baltas.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (2) SAVVY GAL at 3-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #6 Breakfast Ball, #7 Lady Noguez, and #9 Too Much Heaven. No reverse.
Daily Double part-wheel: #2 with #5 Ollie’s Candy
Race 10: OLLIE’S CANDY (#5, 5-2)
The morning line favorite, Hard Not to Love, will look for her first win around two turns in this prestigious Grade 1 event as she has run behind Ce Ce in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile and rallied to be second in the Grade 2 Santa Maria behind Fighting Mad. The issue with this daughter of Hard Spun is her pre race antics in the afternoon and if she is better filly around one turn versus two. In the Santa Maria she was “very difficult and unwilling in the warm-up,” according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes delaying the start for several minutes and this wasted energy resulted in her trailing the field badly behind the gate to wire winner Fighting Mad and rallied to be second when the others in that five-horse field were tired into the stretch such as Ce Ce. Moreover, outside of her third-place finish in the Angel Flight Stakes in her third career start, Hard Not to Love is five for six at distances from six to seven furlongs and this John Shirreffs trainee is better suited to one turn vs two. Plus she has disappointed and appeared on the “dullish” side according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington in her last two workouts for the Clement Hirsch and she is a complete throw out for me. I have always had an affinity for OLLIE’S CANDY ever since she was trained by William Morey Jr. and the five year old is better than ever even though she has failed to visit the winner’s circle in three starts this year. The daughter of Candy Ride made her five-year-old debut off a 133-day layoff in the Grade 1 Beholder and ran evenly to finish a clear third where she needed this race off the break. She shipped to Arkansas for the Grade 1 Apple Blossom on April 18 and she ran a winning race in defeat winning a hard fought speed duel through blazing fractions that earned off the chart Moss Pace Figures (+23,+15) and red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She shook loose from her three main speed and pace rivals, Serengeti Empress, Cookie Dough, and Come Dancing as those rivals crossed the wire and finished eleventh, fourteenth, and twelfth. The John Sadler trainee opened up a two and half length lead past mid-stretch and it required the entire length of the stretch for the perfect trip winner Ce Ce to run her down winning by a head. The 98 Beyer Speed Figure the Apple Blossom earned does not do justice for Ollie’s Candy but TimeformUS Speed Figure does as this dark bay filly earned a 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure while the winner Ce Ce earned a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She was scratched from the Grade 1 Gamely at mile and an eighth on the turf for the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps on the main track at Belmont Park where she dueled the pacesetter Blamed into defeat, opened up another two and half length lead past mid-stretch and was only caught in the final sixteenth of a mile by She’s A Julie and Point of Honor as those two rallied from fourth and fifth after the first half mile. She returns to Del Mar where she won this race last year and has looked fantastic in the mornings preparing for this event with a 59.4 move on July 26 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B+ stating “Big drill running down Rowangoeshollywood (Marquez) and Cryin' Chuck (Sadler) in 35.2, 59.3 guided out in 112.0. Big spin over the track.” She can lead or sit just off Fighting Mad whose most recent victory in the Santa Maria was earned under ideal circumstances loose on the lead quick fractions per Moss Pace Figures (+4,+3) but she had an intense inside-speed bias in her favor. If Ollie’s Candy can repeat any of her last two starts she will defend her title in the Clement Hirsch as my BEST BET on the card.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (5) OLLIE’S CANDY at 9-5 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #2 Ce Ce. No reverse.
Daily Double part-wheel: #5 with #2 Tallien, #5 Juror and #8 Hollywoodhelraiser.
Race 11: JUROR (#5, 4-1)
The morning line favorite War Path enters this race with the best recent race at this distance finishing second beaten a head on June 19 behind the perfect trip winner Tiberius Mercurius but question marks surround that field that makes me leery of War Path being a legitimate morning line favorite to back. The race saw the first four finishers seperated by only one-length at the wire and the below par 80 Beyer Speed Figure matched the visual impression of that event. The subsequent performances of the horses of that June 19 event prove it was a subpar race as it produced three second-place finishes, two third-place finishes, and one off the board effort. Instead, I will look for a new face that is eligible for the Del Mar “Ship and Win” program and JUROR fits the profile. He made his career debut on June 1 for owner and breeder Juddmonte Farms for trainer Chad Brown and this colt was always destined to adore routing on the turf. He is a half sister to Assembly who won two of seven starts routing on the turf with a career best 80 Beyer Speed Figure and he is a full brother to Seismic Wave who is Graded Stakes placed and has won three of thirteen starts routing on the turf with a career best 98 Beyer Speed Figure. The bay colt enjoyed a relatively clean journey in his June 1 debut as he saved ground around the first turn and down the backstretch racing in midpack behind a two-horse speed duel early. He angled off the rail around the far turn in the two path, was three to four wide at the top of the stretch, and put in a decent rally to be a non-threatening second behind the experienced winner Felix the Fox who broke his maiden in his thirteenth career start. Although that race has failed to produce any subsequent winners as four entrants that returned including the winner finish off the board in their next start, Juror can improve with more experience under his belt in the same fashion that his full brother Sesmic Wave has. He will make his first start for trainer Richard Baltas through private purchase with four workouts over the Del Mar main track that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B for two of those workouts including his most recent where he completed his “last 1/4 mile in 24.1 kicking on well for the Baltas barn. Some athleticism here.” Abel Cedillo rides for the first time and in a field that lacks a clear standout this well bred son of Tapit looks to take advantage of that in his first start for his connections.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (5) JUROR at 3-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 Juror with #2 Tallien, #8 Hollywoodhellraiser. Small reverse for each.
Del Mar Race 8 Pick 4:
Race 8: (1) Oil Can Knight and (7) Drop the Chalupa
Race 9: (2) SAVVY GAL
Race 10: (5) OLLIE’S CANDY
Race 11: (2) Tallien, (5) Juror, and (8) Hollywoodhellraiser.
Main Ticket: 1,7 with 2 with 5 with 2,5,8 = 2 x 1 x 1 x 3 x $2 = $12
No other plays.
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