Race 7: EDDIE’S NEW DREAM (#3, 15-1)
In the first leg of the late Pick 5, I am not impressed with the performance of the morning line favorite Taming the Tigress who exits a fourth place finish on opening day beaten less than two lengths in her career debut. After a stumble at the start, she settled “inside in the second flight, tipping out turning for home, failing to kick on from between horses,” according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. Visually this race was not impressive with the first six horses separated by only four and a quarter lengths at the wire and the visual aspect was confirmed with the below average 45 Beyer Speed Figure this race earned. I respect horses exiting the July 2 maiden race won by CTBA Stakes favorite I’m So Anna in the next race but I want a new face at a price and landed on EDDIE’S NEW DREAM. She is a full sister to three winners Azure Dream (2-for-17), Ocean Dream (4-for-41), and Jamming Eddy (2-for-17) with the latter the fastest of those three having earned 81 Beyer Speed Figure sprinting on the main track. Trainer Ben Cecil is not known for sending two-year old debuting maidens in dirt sprints ready to win in their career debut as he has won at 9% (22/2-2-1) in the past five years with this move but one of those two winners was Wandering Patrol (April 1, 2018, $7.80-1) who was owned by Reddam Racing and was a daughter of Square Eddie the same profile as this gray or roan filly. She comes into this race with nine workouts for her career debut and even though her last work did not impress the Handicapper’s Report clocker her previous works were good enough to merit consideration in this spot. She worked with older maiden claiming horse Pushing Sixty and visually caught the eye on July 1 outworking that rival in a half mile in 48.1 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B stating “under a hold, finishing just in front in 48.1, able to win by more than the rider wanted, galloping out in front, a good work, especially considering the gray is a two-year-old filly outworking an older male, this is a must follow with Cal-bred juvenile fillies.” In her penultimate work she turned in a five furlong move in 1:01 flat over this Del Mar main track that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B- commenting “lightly asked, best of the duo in 101.0, a decent work for the unraced two-year-old Square Eddie homebred filly, who again outworked an older horse and can run some.” This homebred filly is a new face where the morning line favorite exits a visually unimpressive and subpar maiden race and EDDIE’S NEW DREAM has the pedigree, a trainer that can fire with debuting maidens at a price, and has worked well enough that she can spring a major surprise at 15-1 on the morning line.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (3) EDDIE’S NEW DREAM at 8-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #3 with #1 Mamba Queen, #4 Steinway, and #7 Will Take a Kiss. Small reverse.
Race 9: DEL MAR DRAMA (#8, 6-1)
The morning line favorite coming off a runner-up performance at this exact same class level is Tagline as her last start was her third consecutive in the money finish in as many starts around two turns on the turf. That second place finish on June 7 was not as good as it looks on paper when you consider she finished in a three-horse photo for second and the horse that returned to win, Awesome Drive, won for $20,000 claiming price with regressing 57 Beyer Speed Figure on the main track. I am going to prefer a filly bred for routing on the turf and dropping in for a claiming price for the first time. DEL MAR DRAMA has made two starts on turf both versus maiden special weight company in turf sprints and ran against the race shape when she finished fifth in an eleven horse field on May 16 at Santa Anita. The daughter of Shackleford was returning off a 132-day layoff and was totally dismissed as the longest shot on the board at 78-1 where according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes he “dropped out to last early, in a bit tight heading into the far turn, dove to the rail, improved several positions into the lane, angled out to the center of the course, finished with interest,” behind the gate to wire winner Affianced who set a moderate early pace. The Eric Kruljac trainee switched to the main track and stretched out to two turns for the first time on July 3 where she dueled head and head for the early lead with the post time favorite and winner Harvest Moon as those two locked in their own match race to the top of the stretch when the latter pulled clear and Del Mar Drama weaken to finish fourth. Although the race only earned an average 75 Beyer Speed Figure the race was stronger than the speed figure would indicate when the winner returned to defeat winners with 87 Beyer Speed Figure (twelve point improvement). She drops for a maiden claiming price for the first time and runs a route of ground on the turf and she is bred to route on the grass. She is a half brother to Bourbon in May who won four of fourteen starts on the turf with three of those wins a route of ground with career best 88 Beyer Speed Figure. Her second dam is Soaring Softy who won six of seven starts on the turf including the Grade 1 Flower Bowl and Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Trainer Eric Kruljac has won at 29% (7/2-0-2) with his starters going from dirt-to-dirt and dropping from a maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke takes over in the irons who was aboard Ostini (July 12, $28.40) for this barn on the first weekend of the meet and if Del Mar Drama finds this company easier and runs to her turf oriented pedigree she can spring the minor upset.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (8) DEL MAR DRAMA at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #6 Better with Age. Small reverse.
Daily Double part-wheel: #8 Del Mar Drama with #8 Wildman Jack.
Race 10: WILDMAN JACK (#8, 6-1)
With the scratch of morning line favorite, McKenzie, in this event the role of favoritism will go towards Fashionably Fast who earned the co-highest last race 95 Beyer Speed Figure when he ran second behind McKenzie in the Grade 2 Triple Bend Handicap on June 7 in a race that saw the third-and-fifth place finishers both returned to win earning Beyer Speed Figures of 97 and 95 respectively and McKenzie split the field in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Mile with improved 100 Beyer Speed Figure. The issue with that Triple Bend was the slow early pace as it earned below average Moss Pace Figures (-18,-9) along with blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He will not find that type of pace scenario in this field as our top choice has a world of early speed. WILDMAN JACK will make his first start on the main track in his tenth career start but is bred for the surface switch behind by two time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents out of Orientate mare Orientations who won three of six starts sprinting with two of them on synthetic surface and was second in her career debut on the main track. The Doug O’Neill scored the biggest victory of his career in the Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint at Meydan where he broke running to be part of the early speed racing towards the inner rail through the first 440 yards, shook clear of his other speed rivals with two furlongs out, and accelerated nicely past mid-stretch while switching to his left lead towards the wire while well clear in front as Timeform foreign comments suggest that this victory was “maximum effort.” He returned from a seventy-seven day layoff in the Grade 3 Daytona on May 23 and rallied from off the pace to catch the 70-1 best of speed winner Sparky Ville to win by a nose in a race that proved to be non-productive as the horses behind Wildman Jack returned with one third-place finish four off the board finishes. He shipped to Keeneland for the Grade 2 Shakertown Stakes on July 11 and never picked up his feet trailing the field throughout in thirteenth and was wrapped up to the wire in a throw out performance. He is reeled back off three weeks rest with a best of 104 half mile move from the gate on July 26 that Handicapper’s Report clocker raved with a B+ working in a three team drill and easily outworked his rivals while “lightly niggled when up in 46.1, an excellent work.” Jockey Umberto Respoli takes over in the irons for the first time and from his comfortable outside draw, I expect Wildman Jack to flash his typical early speed to go for the early lead and if he runs to his visually impressive work from last Sunday and to his dirt oriented pedigree he will prove to be a tough rival to run down in his first Grade 1 start.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (8) WILDMAN JACK at 3-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #9 Collusion Illusion. Small reverse.
Daily Double part-wheel: #8 Wildman Jack with #5 Bella Chica
Race 11: BELLA CHICA (#5, 7-2)
The morning line favorite On Mars is developing the bad case of being a bridesmaid in her career. The daughter of Vronsky has hit the board in all three starts on turf including her last two at today’s one mile distance but she has failed to show a winning punch in the stretch to suggest she can improve in her sixth career start. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “she ran at the leader, rebuffed, second best,” when second behind pace pressing winner Good Things Come in Pink on May 22 and in her last start on June 19 the HR Trip Notes stated “had her chance the final furlong, not good enough, hung badly for second.” On Mars finds this distance too far and she had plenty of chances. Instead I will go with another trial maiden but she makes her first start at a route of ground and adds blinkers for the first time. BELLA CHICA is a trial maiden with three second-place finishes and one third-place finish from five starts. Her previous runner-up effort was on May 29 at Santa Anita where she lost a tough photo with the winner Fireproof who benefited from a fast pace to rally from next to last to win by a nose over this daughter of City Zip. This consistent bay filly has finished worse than third only once in five starts and that happened last time out where she was compromised by a very wide trip. Breaking from post position twelve in a twelve horse field, the HR Trip Notes commented she was “parked wide midpack, remaining wide in the turn, trying early in the lane, throwing in the towel by the final 1/16th.” She now stretches out to two turns and tries blinkers for the first time and based on her pedigree and her subsequent workouts those two factors should be enough to land her in the winner’s circle in the finale. She is a daughter of excellent turf sire City Zip out of the dam Bella Viaggia who won four of eight starts all sprinting with two of them on the turf. She tried a route of ground just twice and ran second behind subsequent Grade 1 Test winner Sweet Lulu on the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park and was second beaten only a half-length in the one-mile Solana Beach Stakes at one-mile on the turf at Del Mar. She adds the blinkers for the first time and the Handicapper’s Report clocker has noticed improvements with the new equipment in her morning workouts. She worked with blinkers in a half mile spin on July 10 where the HR clocker got her working faster than the 49.1 time stating “striding out well in 48.0, the best work we have seen from her, it appears the blinkers have helped this trial maiden filly,” and concluded her worktab with maintenance five furlong move on July 26 in 1:01.2 where the HR clocker commented “wore blinkers (new) for her five furlong work, not asked in 101.2, not a bad work at all, it appears the trial Cal-bred maiden filly is improved with the shades.” Jockey Drayden Van Dyke who rode her to her first two second-place finishes is back in the irons and if she improves with the blinkers that the HR clocker suggested and runs to her dam’s performance at a route of ground then BELLA CHICA can spring the small upset to end the Saturday Del Mar card.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (5) BELLA CHICA to WIN at 5-2 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #1 Cheerful Charm. Small reverse.
Del Mar Pick 3 Race 9
Race 9: (6) Better with Age, (8) DEL MAR DRAMA
Race 10: (8) WILDMAN JACK, (9) Collusion Illusion
Race 11: (1) Cheerful Charm, (5) BELLA CHICA
Ticket 1: 8 with 8,9 with 1,5 = 1 x 2 x 2 x $2 = $8
Ticket 2: 6,8 with 8 with 1,5 = 2 x 1 x 2 x $2 = $8
Ticket 3: 6,8 with 8,9 with 5 = 2 x 2 x 1 x $2 = $8
Total Wager: $24
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