Raymundos Secret Finds Perfect Pace Scenario in the Mabee

 Race 3: WHIRL CANDY (#4, 5-1)

The morning line favorite, Seiche, exits a third place finish on August 15 and now stretches out in his second career start. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the son of Super Saver “trailed badly, moved closer around the far turn, tried to come through inside the leader, but did not have clear sailing past midstretch allowing the winner first run, one-paced when clear, missed the place.” The even running style suggests he should relish the two turns but his subsequent training after that respectable effort and his trainer’s surprisingly lack of success with second start maiden stretching out for the first time leaves Seiche vulnerable as the favorite. He worked a half mile on August 30 in 49.3 that Handicapper’s Report clocker reported “did not look as good as usual in this five furlong work, wearing blinkers, going off from the 1/2 mile pole, opening 1/4 in 24.4, raising his head crossing the wire while being coaxed along in 49.1, still being coaxed down to the 7/8 pole in 102.0, so-so work, a bit disappointing this week,” for C+ move. Secondly, trainer Bob Baffert is only 8% (3-for-39) the past five years with his trainees making their second start stretching out to a route on the main track for the first time. I am looking elsewhere and in this race a horse that made my horses to watch list on July 26 for his game third-place finish over this same layout. WHIRL CANDY had finished off the board in his first three starts before trainer Richard Baltas decided to geld him, took the blinkers off and try routing on the main track for the first time in his fourth career start and he ran his best race finishing third earning the co highest last race 77 Beyer Speed Figure where he earned this figure under very difficult circumstances. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “raced to the front, left the rail open into the first turn, settled on the leader’s flank, pressed the tempo to the far turn, took command, dueled into the lane, led to deep stretch, tagged for second.” This was a very fast early pace earning kamikaze Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+21,+10) and earning corresponding red coded TimeformUS pace figures. The pace was so fast it saw the leader, Winner’s Club, tire to finish eighth beaten 19-½ lengths as this son of Twirling Candy won the battle for the early lead but lost the war. He has returned with four workouts including best of 28 five furlong move on August 28 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a respectable B- stating “asked for a good work, opening ⅜ in 35.2, asked through the stretch, up in 59.4, a decent work, but let run.” The speed of this field and retaining the services of Flavien Prat this dark bay or brown gelding will flash his speed to the first turn and with an easier pace scenario can race gate to wire as one of two recommended singles on your multi-race wagers on Saturday Del Mar card. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) WHIRL POWER at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #2 Charlito, #8 A.P. Pharoah. Small reverse for each. 

Race 8: LIBERAL (#4, 12-1)

The morning line favorite Whopping Jay will make his third start this meet and exits a win versus California-bred Allowance on August 14 but his status as the favorite is really based on his second place finish in the California Dreamin Stakes where he finished second beaten only a half length behind the favored perfect trip and five time winner Galilean. That California bred stakes event was not the most productive. Out of the also ran, Take the One O One, who returned to the main track to win Allowance N2X with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure, six horses returned from that race producing one winner, one second place finish, and four horses finishing off the board including the Galiean who finished fifth in the Del Mar Mile on August 23 duplicating his 90 Beyer Speed Figure. His win on August 14 was against a weak field of California-breds Allowance N1X. The third place finisher Jetovator is a five time loser at that class level and the field was bunched at the wire with the first five finishers seperated by only 2-¼ lengths at the wire. Instead I am going to prefer a horse taking a step up in class but faced a key race field in his last race. LIBERAL has only a N2L win on the turf on May 16 at Santa Anita but that race was an indication that this Irish bred was rounding into form. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “settled at the back of the pack, traveled willingly along the inside down the backstretch, rallied under cover into contention in the far turn, split runners into the lane, bid between runners midstretch, rallied to the lead, powered through the wire.” The field was well strung out behind him a sign of a quality victory and the runner up returned to win earning a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. He returned from a 83 day layoff on August 7 and ran into a productive field finishing second behind the runaway winner Scarto. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “had only his stablemate beat inside, picked off horses along the rail around the far turn, came out leaving that bend, no threat to the winner, up for the place. He was helped by the raceshape.” The raceshape did aid his rally as the fractions were fast enough to earn a red coded TimeformUS pace figure and the form of this has already been flattered. The winner returned to win Allowance N1X on August 31 with a 87 Beyer Speed Figure, third place finisher returned to run second on the main track in a Starter Allowance earning 81 Beyer Speed Figure, and the fifth place finisher returned to run second earning a 77 Beyer Speed Figure in Allowance N1X on the turf at Golden Gate. The Patrick Gallagher trainee has returned with an easy maintenance half mile work in 49.2 on August 29 and retains the services of jockey Drayden Van Dyke for the third straight time. He will make his first start at this 1-⅛ miles but with his excellent post position (four), he should save ground leaving the chute and around both turns and with any clear sailing at the top of the stretch flash that potent late kick at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) LIBERAL at 8-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #3 Dubby Dubbie, #5 Rocky Tough. Small reverse for each. 

Race 9: TOBACCO ROAD (#7, 6-1)

The bet against in this race goes towards the second choice on the morning line Camby who makes his second start at this N3L class level after finishing third as the 5-2 second choice on August 9 here at Del Mar. Given the trip he encountered with moderate early pace to chase or pressed, this son of Candy Ride no excuse. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “raced midfield to the far turn, bore down on the lead four-deep to the quarter-pole, briefly poked his nose in front, raced five-wide into the lane, bid to deep stretch, best of the rest.” The part about that note was that he failed to kick on from mid-stretch to the wire as he hung badly losing second to Self Taught who was a 1-½ length off the lead at the eighth pole and Camby failed to finish the job to win or finish second. The horse who exits the fastest races and is nice price on the morning line goes to the closer TOBACCO ROAD who will need the right trip and pace scenario for him to get over bridesmaid status of six combined seconds or thirds from 22 starts but he finds the right field this afternoon to get him over his tendency to finish second or third. He made his first start at Del Mar on opening day at this N3L class level where he caught the razor sharp front runner Julius in a highly rated event for the class level (86 Beyer Speed Figure). According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “had one beat cantering on his own 11 lengths down, beginning his long march forward through foes with an inside path in the turn, sustaining his long effort to snatch 2nd late.” The early pace that Julius set as the uncontested leader was moderate according to the Moss Pace Figures (+2,+4) and the validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to win a Starter Allowance on August 2 with 86 Beyer Speed Figure and then ran second in Allowance N1X with an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. This runner up effort gave his connections confidence to enter him in a Starter Allowance on August 15 and he ran into another highly rated event (86 Beyer Speed Figure) won the “Ship and Win” favored winner Pyron. In that race, he “lagged at the rear two-deep, passed the back markers outside around the far turn, four-wide for the drive, late gain, won the battle for the show.” He now drops back to N3L and returns with a half-mile maintenance work on August 27. He should get pace for his late run with morning line favorite Street Image going for the early lead stretching out a furlong from his last two starts and will get pressure from Octopus drawn outside of him. If that pace scenario materializes then I expect jockey Ricky Gonzalez to allow Tobacco Road to settle early and will grind away through the stretch to pick up the tiring leaders in the final furlong. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (7) TOBACCO ROAD at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #7 with #4 Street Image, #11 Red Valor. Small reverse for each. 

Race 10: RAYMUNDOS SECRET (#8, 2-1)

With four victories on the turf, two off the board finishes, and making his second start off 293 day layoff and for trainer Phil D’Amato I see RAYMUNDOS SECRET only improving in her second race this year as the morning line favorite. The daughter of Treasure Beach two off the board finishes including in last year’s Del Mar Oaks was the result of this filly going too fast too soon. In her last start of 2019, Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes, the bay filly got caught in a vicious speed duel with 29-1 longshot Giza Goddness as those two opened up a 2 and 1-½ length lead on the rest of the field through fast fractions of 45.01 and 1:08.44 for the first six furlongs that were fast enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She remained in the battle with that rival all the way to mid stretch before finally giving way to finish fifth in a very good effort considering the fast pace set it up for the horses coming from off the pace as the first, third, and fourth place finishers rallied from sixth, seventh, and ninth after the first half mile as Giza Goddness and Raymundos Secret ran the two best races in that that race. She returned from a 293 day layoff in her first start for trainer Phil D’Amato in a Allowance N2X on August 14 and she made her four year old debut a winning one but her neck margin of victory is deceiving as was really only asked to run the last eighth of a mile. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “eased her way back to sit in the leader’s draft, looking primed in the turn, waiting for room in upper stretch, bulling her way out midstretch, kicking strongly to get up in the final stride.” The two parts of this victory that was impressive was she completed her final quarter of a mile in co fastest 23.34 seconds and did so against the race shape as the second and third place finishers ran first and second throughout and second part was she galloped out strongly after the wire towards the backstretch as this was a perfect prep for the stretch out to 1-⅛ of the Mabee. She is the leader in TimeformUS early pace ratings and should navigate the lead into the first lead with Flavien Prat remaining in the irons as the Southern California filly and mare turf division has taken turns in defeating each other this year. She comes into the race with impressive five furlong move on the turf course on August 30 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave her a B stating “five furlongs over the sod with the dogs up, we had the final 1/2 of this work in 48.3, never asked at all, striding out well to the wire, a good work for the recent winner, who will likely surface in the Mabee closing weekend.” In the past five years on the turf course here at Del Mar in Graded Stakes, trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Flavien Prat have connected at gaudy 38% (13/5-2-0) and they look to continue that successful trend with Raymundos Secret as my second single on the Saturday Del Mar card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (8) RAYMUNDOS SECRET at 8-5 or better. 

Trifecta part-wheel: 8 with 2 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 = $15 for a $3 Wager 

Trifecta part-wheel: 8 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with 2 = $5 for a $1 Wager. 

Race 11: TIZAMAGICIAN (#1, 8-1)

The morning line favorite Nolo Contesto has developed a bad case of finishing second. Since defeating the now retired and last year’s morning line favorite for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, Omaha Beach, the son of Pioneer of the Nile has finished second in three subsequent fast main track events including his last two starts. In his last start on August 1 I could not find an excuse for his third second place finish behind his stablemate Shortlist. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran inside 4 lengths down, inching forward midrace, pushing forward 3-wide in the final turn, stalling out on the fading leader in the upper stretch, chasing on after the winner in the lane to earn a clear 2nd.” He ran third chasing the very fast pace speed duel between Rayray and Dreams of Valor who set fast fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures (+15,+5). Instead I prefer a horse that finished behind him in that same race that I expect to make the early lead in this race. TIZAMAGICIAN is a horse that has always promised more than he has delivered in his ten starts. The son of Tiznow has disappointed as the post time favorite in four occasions but I could find excuses for his two debacles on a fast main track where he will be overlooked in the finale. He returned from a 111 day layoff on May 22 at Santa Anita where he was bet down to the 7-5 post time favorite and from a trip standpoint one cannot find a real excuse. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “pushed the pace onto the backstretch, applied heavy pressure down the backstretch, could not go with the winner heading into the far turn, stayed on to midstretch, one-paced to the wire.” The excuses I found in this race are firstly the layoff and secondly the fast pace he pressed chasing or pressing the gate to wire winner Take the One O One as it earned above average Moss Pace Figures (+8,+3). I will a draw a line through his race in the Oceanside Stakes because it was the wrong surface and class level and he returned to the main track at this N1X class level and finished fifth beaten four lengths behind the rail skimming rally winner Shortlist but he had a tough trip that is not described in the Bid 4 wide, weakened comment in your past performances. According to Trip Notes Pro, he “Floated out on the 1st turn by #2, Nolo Contesto. Reach normally wouldn’t have been a big deal except it took him into the 6path and (3) rivals advanced up inside of him. Caught 4W (6deep) entire 1st turn and down the BS. Tugged along to advance 4W into the FT and almost made it to the lead. Began flattening out in the lane and had every excuse to stop running but give him extra credit for continuing to try to the wire. SNEAKY good gallop out.” He has come back with three workouts including a sharp three 59.3 five furlong move on August 26 followed by a maintenance three furlong blow out four days ago. He is drawn on the rail and gets Drayden Van Dyke in the irons for the first time and I expect him to be sent for the early lead as he and Mongolian Legend are the only entrants in this field with triple digit TimeformUS early pace ratings in this field. With aggressive tactics from the start, Tizamagician stands an excellent chance to spring the upset in the finale. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (1) TIZAMAGICIAN at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #3 Strongconstitution, #5 Ronamo, #6 Royal Act. Small reverse. 

Del Mar Race 8 Pick 4

Race 8: (3) Dubby Dubbie, (4) Liberal, (5) Rocky Tough 

Race 9: (4) Street Image, (7) TOBACCO ROAD, (11) Red Valor 

Race 10: (8) RAYMUNDOS SECRET 

Race 11: (1) Tizamagician, (3) Strongconstitution, (5) Ronamo, (6) Royal Act

Main Ticket: 3,4,5 with 7 with 8 with 1,3,5,6 = 3 x 1 x 1 x 4 x $2 = $24 

Ticket 1: 3,4,5 with 4,11 with 8 with 1,3,5,6  = 3 x 2 x 1 x 4 x $1 = $24 

Total Wager: $48  

 

Higher Power Looks for the Repeat in the Pacific Classic

 Race 7: PROUD PEDRO (#6, 12-1)

The morning line favorite and the deserving one is United who comes into this race having won three straight since narrow defeats in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf and Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup. The son of Giant’s Causeway has really benefited from ideal trips in each of his three wins as he stalked a very fast early pace to enough red coded TimeformUS pace figures in Grade 2 San Marcos on February 1, launched a wide run to grab the lead between horses past mid-stretch and held off the late run of Cleopatra’s Strike and Oscar Dominguez in a race that saw the five horses behind him return to finish second, third, and three off the board finishes. In his next two starts, he sat perfect pace prompting a trip in second behind moderate early pace in the Grade 2 Whittingham and Eddie Read, took the lead in deep stretch, and held off the late run of Rockemperor and Sharp Samurai respectively. He makes his third race off a 112 day layoff and he is no standout from a speed figure standpoint as his last race 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure does not give him an advantage over the rest of the field and he will have to concede anywhere from three to seven pounds. Instead my choice was visually impressive in his only start at today’s mile and three-eighths trip and owns a devastating late kick. 

PROUD PEDRO has improved as a four-year old with two victories from four starts and has thrived since stretching out to a mile and a quarter and longer. The Pedro the Great colt finished in front of subsequent Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano winner Red King in his first start at ten furlongs on February 23 at Santa Anita where he raced in traffic between rivals in the two path around both turns, angled three wide at the top of the stretch, rallied to grab the lead past mid-stretch and held off the late bid of long shot Farquhar to win by three-quarters of a length. He returned from a 89 day layoff and delivered a rare sub par performance finishing last in an eight horse field as Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated this was a “very puzzling performance from the usually sure-fire Powell trainee.” This was a stronger than normal Allowance N2X as the winner returned to win the Oceanside Stakes with 87 Beyer Speed Figure, sixth-place finisher Kazan returned to win $40,000 claiming event with 89 Beyer Speed Figure, and fifth place finisher Order and Law returned two starts later to win at this same class level with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. The Leonard Powell trainee returned from a brief 63 day freshening at today’s distance and was a visually impressive winner that is not described in his 93 Beyer Speed Figure. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “broke a touch slow, ambling on his own rhythm at the back 4 lengths down, coiling up turning for home, wheeling out for the stretch, producing a sustained kick, making the front in the final strides.” What makes this performance excellent was he rallied from fifth and last behind a very slow early pace earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures where he was the only horse to rally against the grain of the race shape as North County Guy prompted this tepid pace in second. He earned a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure which is the highest last race speed figure in this field and only one point behind United’s best speed figure. He smoked his last three-eighths in 34.60 seconds and the lack of pace he found in his last start should be present with longshots Big Buzz going for the early lead pressed by outclassed New Year on or near the front end. He has come back with two works including a “leg stretching,” half mile maintenance move in 50.2 on August 15 according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker. Juan Hernandez remains in the irons and he can duplicate his Allowance N2X win in this race getting seven pounds from the favorite United he can spring an upset in the opening leg of the late Pick 5. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (6) PROUD PEDRO at 8-1 or better

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #5 Ward N Jerry and #7 Red King. 

Small Exacta: #7 Red King with #6 Proud Pedro. 

Race 8: KERSHAW (#8, 9-2)

The morning line favorite belongs to Extra Hope who will make his four-year old seasonal debut off a 273 day layoff. The son of Shanghai Bobby was last seen finishing second behind the gate to wire winner Midcourt in last November’s Grade 3 Native Diver Handicap at mile and an eighth in a race that saw the first two finishers run first and second at each call as the race developed at slow pace according to the Moss Pace Figures (-4,-5). The Richard Mandella trainee has returned to work splendidly over the Del Mar main track with three consecutive B workouts according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker. The concern from this corner is the effect of the extended layoff have to do with his fitness for this race as trainer Richard Mandella has won at 30% rate (3-for-10) in the past five years with his dirt starters returning off a 250 to 300 day layoff but those three wins were at six furlongs (twice) and six and a half furlongs and the lone route start was Belle Hill who finished sixth at 3-1 returning off a 260 day layoff. His uncoupled entrymate, Take the One O One, I will use as one of my contenders but the top choice has shown better than looked form in his previous two starts that makes him good value play against the two favorites. 

KERSHAW has not visited the winner circle since February 23 at today’s distance when he won at this same Allowance N2X class level going gate to wire. Since that race, he has managed to hit the board only once in four subsequent starts but two of them I am going to draw a line right through. He finished off the board on a wet fast and sealed main track on April 19 at Oaklawn where he battled with pace rival Shang through fast fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures (+11,+6) and tired to finish sixth on a surface he proved in his three previous starts he detest a off track. His other off the board finish was in the San Juan Capistrano on turf where he failed to hit the board in his previous start and he was used as a rabbit for his uncouple stablemate and eventual winner Red King. In his fourth place finish behind Ax Man on May 16 he suffered a wide trip as he was parked two to three wide around the first turn, four wide down the backstretch, launched a four wide run to loom outside of the first two finishers at the top of the stretch, and flattened out on his run at mid-stretch to be fourth where the first two finishers ran second and first at each call with Kershaw losing ground throughout in a tough trip. His other better than looked effort was his last start when he returned to the level of his lone win this year but was risked for the optional claiming price of $62,500 on July 25 where he ran much better than the Inside game 3rd comment found in your past performances. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, this son of Run Away and Hide was “sent to show speed then stalked inside around the first turn, tracked down the backstretch, ridden along around the far turn, had a huge opening to rally through into the drive, dead aim, not good enough.” This was a faster than average Allowance N2X that saw the winner Dark Vader earn a 95 Beyer Speed Figure but what makes this effort better than looked was the bias he was up against. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the outside lanes were clearly best on July 25 and Kershaw was pinned on this bad rail throughout while the winner raced off the rail in the two or three path and runner up had three to four wide trip throughout as Kershaw was clearly compromised by the bias. He has come back with two decent B- works according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker and finds a field without a lot of front running early speed as Take the One O One is the field’s clear pacesetter. From his outside draw, Kershaw should get a great trip pressing or stalking the pacesetter in the clear and return to his winning ways at a hint of a price for trainer Phil D’Amato. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (8) KERSHAW at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #4 Take the One O One, #3 Potantico. 

Small Exacta: #4 Take the One O One with #8 Kershaw. 

Race 9: GUITTY (#11, 8-1) 

This race has all the markings from a pace standpoint as the Honeymoon Stakes on May 30 at Santa Anita run at this exact same distance of 1-⅛ miles. That race the winner and today’s morning line favorite, Laura’s Light, sat in second behind the runaway speed horse Parkour who sped through very fast fractions earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures and according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “reeled in the leader in the far turn, swept to the lead past mid stretch, drifted on to the fence in deep stretch, and just held.” She projects to get a similar trip on Saturday but one rival did not get the cleanest of trips in that same common race and was second to her in the San Clemente will enjoy the stretch out to additional eighth of a mile. 

GUITTY was my top choice in the San Clemente when her late rally fell three-quarters of a length short behind Laura’s Light and she returned to face that rival for the fifth time in her career. Before jockey Juan Hernandez took over in the irons, this French bred daughter of Dunkerque was her own worst enemy by her fifth place finish behind Laura’s Light in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes at today’s nine furlong distance. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she was “forced in at the break and took up linking up with the course proper, traveled keenly at the rear of the field, taken three-wide by her pilot approaching the half-mile pole, circled the field into the far turn, kept coming three-wide in the far turn, carried five-wide into the lane, bid to mid stretch, in tight and steadied, flipped onto her wrong lead, plodded to the wire. The Powell trainee is likely around at the finish with a more patient ride.” Based off this troubled trip, a cut back to one mile, and the likelihood of a very fast pace set by the expected leader Cheermesiter with Laura’s Light not too far behind that brisk pace, Guitty was my top select at 20-1 in the San Clemente and she fell three-quarters of a length short behind her aforementioned rival. The Handicapper’s Report clocker gave her a B for her July 7 move in 49 flat and she ran to her work and better as the Handicapper’s Report trip notes stated “trailed two-deep, came out around the far turn, picked off horses quickly leaving that bend, continued a sustained rally in the stretch, drifted out a bit, couldn’t get to the winner, second best” covering her last quarter of a mile in a field’s best 22.90 seconds and lost nothing in defeat. She did have a fast pace to close into as the early fractions saw it earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures but she projects to get another fast pace as Parkour will flee from post position nine to go for the lead while chased by Laura’s Light and the sprinter stretching out Aqua Seafoam Shame not too far behind and this anticipated fast pace will benefit Guiity who owns the TimeformUS best late pace rating in this field. She has returned with only one work a 47.4 half mile spin on August 13 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave the very rare A- stating “looked fantastic in this faster than given half mile turf work around the dogs, going off in 12.2, flying around the far turn, passing the 1/4 pole in 23.3 (11.1 around a turn with the dogs up), she was not asked in the stretch, up in 46.4, a really sharp work, it appears the three-year-old grass filly is coming up to a corker.” Juan Hernandez remains in the irons and with her late kick and proven form over the Del Mar turf course, GUITTY is the best value play in the Del Mar Oaks. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (11) GUITTY at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #11 with #3 Miss Extra, #8 Neige Blanche. Small reverse for each. 

Race 10: HIGHER POWER (#2, 3-1) 

The highlight of the Del Mar meeting the Pacific Classic sees the rematch of the first three finishers of the San Diego Handicap with Maximum Security assign the role of morning line favorite at 1-1. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “the New Year’s Day colt led early, relinquished the lead around the first turn, stalked down the backstretch, came under a ride two-deep past the half-mile pole, all-out around the far turn and into the lane, caught the leader past mid stretch, put his head in front, just won the bob.” That was his first start off a 147 day layoff and for trainer Bob Baffert. He has certainly trained like a colt that will move forward in his second start for his Hall of Fame trainer with his last two works over the Del Mar main track a B+ according to Handicapper’s Report clocker including his seven furlong move in 1:25.2 that the clocker stated “much better than he was before the San Diego, he appears to be handling the track much better in preparation for the Pacific Classic.” I am not concerned with his ability or gameness but rather if today’s ten furlong distance is what he really wants at this stage of his career. His two most visually impressive efforts happened around one turn in the Bold Ruler at seven furlongs and Grade 1 Cigar Mile over last year’s Grade 1 BC Dirt Mile winner Spun to Run. As mentioned with Kershaw’s analysis, July 25 saw the main track favoring horses that raced on the outside paths and Maximum Security raced in the three paths from the beginning of the backstretch to the wire. I believe one horse is primed for a repeat victory in the same race he won by five and a quarter lengths and will look for a better trip than in San Diego. 

HIGHER POWER has not visited the winner’s circle since last year’s Pacific Classic where he scored a 9-1 upset over these exact same conditions. The son of 2003 Pacific Classic runner up, Medaglia D’Oro is slowly rounding into form for trainer John Sadler as his two starts off a 133 day layoff indicate he is primed for a winning effort. After his debacle in the Pegasus World Cup, he made his return in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup on June 6 where he received his ideal trip tracking the leader Brown Storm and the favored pace pressing winner Improbable in the three path for the majority of the race sitting just off moderate fractions. He began to be worked on midway on the far turn as Improbable began to spurt away from the field and this bay five-year old chased home that winner finishing well clear of the rest of the field in a highly rated (105 Beyer Speed Figure) that ranks as the fourth fastest races at more than a mile this year and the figure was validated when Improbable returned to win the Grade 1 Whitney with a 106 Beyer Speed Figure. He was training in respectable matter for the Grade 2 San Diego on July 25 with three consecutive B- workouts according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker but the distance would be an issue as his two best races in the past year were at today’s mile and a quarter distance and Higher Power figures to be in trouble at this shorter trip. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “tracked inside early, moved up and angled out to press the pace and try to put the winner in a box onto the backside, stalked again inside passing the 5/8 pole, outrun leaving the far turn, dropped back in the stretch, distant third.” He was compromised by race riding tactics as jockey Flavien Prat attempted to put the favorite into an uncomfortable position into the backstretch moving early and was forced to race on the rail on a main track that strongly favored outside paths that afternoon. He stretches out to his preferred distance and has trained better for this event with three straight B workouts according to Handicapper’s Report clocker with the comment “a good work for the classy sort, who will be pointed for the Pacific Classic.” I expect the tactics will be Victor Espinoza on Midcourt hustling his mount to the lead with Maximum Security glued to his flank in second. Flavien Prat will be chasing or pressing the pace in the three paths into the first turn and if he can duplicate last year’s win in this year’s Pacific Classic he can give the favorite only the second time he has crossed the wire defeated in a race as my BEST BET on the card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (2) HIGHER POWER at 2-1 or better. 

No other plays. 

Race 11: SHADOW SPHINX (#4, 7-2)

The most important part in handicapping the finale is how the early pace will shape up. The only other horse that can possibly challenge the morning line favorite, Shadow Sphinx, early is recent California bred Allowance winner Ostini and he comes off a win where he took the blinkers off July 12 and rallied from last behind a very fast early pace that earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures and won by a head. If Juan Hernandez takes back on Ostini then SHADOW SPHINX will find himself on the lead and prove to be a tough rival to run down in the finale. He won three of eleven starts as a three-year old including a win and a second in two starts over this Del Mar turf course. After splitting an eleven horse field in his only start as a four year old down the hillside turf course at Santa Anita, he did not race for the remainder of 2019 with an unknown aliment. He returned from a 510 day layoff on June 20 where he ran in a Starter Allowance with optional claiming price of $32,000 where he was risked for the claiming tag in his first start off the extended layoff and he came back better than ever with a convincing victory versus an overmatched field. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “settled just off the pacesetter, traveled beautifully down the backstretch, bore down on the leader in the far turn, took command at the head of the lane, shifted in, kicked away, ridden out.” He earned the field’s top last race 89 Beyer and 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure and what makes that victory more impressive was he pressed the leader Blackout through very fast fractions to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures that took its toll on the leader as he weakened to finish ninth and last beaten seventeen lengths with Shadow Sphinx won the early battle for the lead and won the war. He returns off a two month freshening with seven workouts none more impressive than his five furlong move in 59.2 on August 2 on this turf course with last year’s Queen Plate winner One Bad Boy that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B+ stating “not asked, appearing best in 59.2, an excellent work for the recent winner, who is on top of his game, tab for another huge effort,” making their Fit and Ready list for today. There is not a lot of front running early speed that can challenge this Richard Baltas trained son of Pioneer of the Nile and he should easily make the lead passing the finish line for the first time and make every pole a winning one as the probable post time favorite in a race that will conclude the mandatory Pick 6 and late Pick 5. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) SHADOW SPHINX at 9-5 or better. 

Trifecta part-wheel: 4 with 2,5,6 with 2,3,5,6,7,9,10 = $18 for a $1 Wager 

Trifecta part-wheel: 4 with 2,3,5,6,7,9,10 with 2,5,6 = $9 for a $0.50 Wager

Del Mar Race 7 Pick 5

Race 7: (6) Proud Pedro, (7) Red King 

Race 8: (4) Take the One O One, (8) Kershaw 

Race 9: (3) Miss Extra, (8) Neige Blanche, (11) Guitty 

Race 10: (2) HIGHER POWER

Race 11: (4) SHADOW SPHINX 

Main Ticket: 6,7 with 4,8 with 3,8,11 with 2 with 4 = 2 x 2 x 3 x 1 x 1 x $1.50 = $18

Del Mar Race 8 Pick 3

Race 8: (4) Take the One O One, (8) Kershaw 

Race 9: (3) Miss Extra, (8) Neige Blanche, (11) Guitty 

Race 10: (2) HIGHER POWER

Main Ticket: 4,8 with 3,8,11 with 2 = 2 x 3 x 1 x $2 = $12 

Del Mar Race 9 Pick 3

Race 9: (3) Miss Extra, (8) Neige Blanche, (11) Guitty 

Race 10: (2) HIGHER POWER

Race 11: (4) SHADOW SPHINX 

Main Ticket: 3,8,11 with 2 with 4 = 3 x 1 x 1 x $4 = $12 

 

Bodhicitta Looks to Mow Them Down in the John Mabee

 Race 5: BEGUILDED (#1, 15-1)

This race that ends the early Pick 5 interests me the most on the entire card because of the possibility of throwing out the morning line favorite MEREDITH. She is by terrific first time turf stallion American Pharoah who connects at 17% with his progeny trying the grass for the first time but there is nothing on the female side of her pedigree and trainer’s record with surface switch from dirt to turf and sprint to route makes her bet against. Her dam Flattermewithroses won once in sixteen starts and tried routing on the turf five times without a win. Secondly, trainer Bob Baffert excels with debuting maidens sprinting on the main track and with three-year old pointing for the classic races but in the past five years he is 23/0-5-2 with his trainees going from dirt to turf and stretching out from a sprint to route. She figures to control the pace from start exiting a fast pace sprint but will find company for the lead with My Little Runaway and Summer Love forwardly placed. Instead, I am going to back a horse making her second race off the layoff exiting a tough trip seventh-place finish in her return. BEGUILDED is half sister to Phil D’Amato trained Fault who won six of sixteenth starts including Grade 2 Buena Vista at one-mile on the turf and Grade 1 Santa Margarita at mile and an eighth on the main track. She did not have a real visible excuse when she finished eighth in the China Doll Stakes as she raced between rivals behind a two horse duel and was always in good striking position but failed to show a late kick in a race where the first ten finishers were separated by only five lengths. The daughter of Orb returned from a 127-day layoff on July 12 where she was dismissed at 21-1 and was working like a filly that was going to need that first race off the layoff as she came into that event with three consecutive C+ works per the Handicapper’s Report clocker and she ran accordingly beaten five lengths but a closer inspection of that race reveals she had no chance with the trip she endured. Forced to break from post position ten in a ten horse field, she was parked four to five paths wide leaving the chute and ran around the first turn three wide and into the backstretch behind a slow early pace. Next to the wide journey, she took a funny step midway on the backstretch and into the far turn tried to commence a three to four wide run at the top of the stretch and lost her punch with her stablemate Carpe Vinum emerging victorious. She now makes her second race off the extended layoff and goes from the extreme outside to the rail to save ground under hot riding Juan Hernandez. The bay filly has returned to training much better with two works capped off by a 1:01.1 move on the turf that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B working with stable mate Zee Drop where “neither were asked.” I expect to see half of her morning line and that is acceptable and I expect her to move forward with a ground saving trip. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (1) BEGUILDED at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #6 Summer Love and #8 Moonhill Milly. Small reverse for each. 

Race 7: FIVESTAR LYNCH (#5, 10-1)

The TimeformUS pace projector and review of the running lines of the nine entrants in this field reveal a lack of early speed signed on in this 1-⅜ miles turf event. The pace projector indicates there is no early speed and majority in this field are assigned a running style of midpack or closers and this race can unfold at tepid pace for our top choice FIVESTAR LYNCH. The Richard Baltas trainee broke his maiden in his eighth career start for $62,500 claiming price on February 8 with the aid of a perfect trip. He saved ground around the first turn and the far turn behind the leader Trojan Magic who set a fast pace to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures. He tipped off the rail into the stretch and rallied to wear down the longtime leader Trojan Magic to win by a half-length. The Slade Power gelding returned from a 106-day layoff on May 24 in a race that appeared he needed the race off more than a three month layoff. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “stalked inside, angled a bit off the rail in the stretch, between horses within range deep stretch, not good enough,” in a race that saw the winner Red King returned to win Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure and eighth place finisher Posterize returned to win $32,000 claiming dirt sprint with a 85 Beyer Speed Figure. He made his second start off the layoff on the final race of the Santa Anita spring-summer meet on June 21 and ran eighth beaten seven and a half-lengths in a race that one can dismiss because the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “ran outside at the back, winding up in the turn, circling very wide, showing a mild late kick to pass a few.” He suffered very bad riding tactics as this gelding shown to sit close to the early pace and succeed and also he had a very wide journey covering 54ft more than the first through third place finishers and 38ft more than the fourth place finisher Succeedandsurpass in a race where the runner-up Lincoln City returned to win at the same class level with a 87 Beyer Speed Figure. He has returned with five workouts including his last drill where he worked in company heads up with the stakes placed sprinter Ginobli on August 2 in 48 seconds flat (Fivestar Lynch - August 2) that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave B-. Abel Cedillo takes over in the irons and with aggressive ride from the start he dictates terms on the front end without losing ground on both turns and can spring the upset to start the Saturday late Pick 5 at Del Mar.

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) FIVESTAR LYNCH at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #8 Tintoretto and #7 Cupid’s Claw. Small reverse for each.   

Race 9: BODHICITTA (#2, 6-1)

The scratch of Jodie Olimpica changed the pace scenario of this race as that filly was expected to be the pacesetter and now look for Summering from the rail post position to go straight for the early lead along with Harmless tracking or pressing the leader in second early. A mare that can be overlooked is BODHICITTA who enters this race in peak form with two wins and a second in three starts this year. Her main asset is her late kick and she displayed that in her previous win on March 8 at Santa Anita. The Showcasing filly found the rail around the first turn, angled off the rail in two path down the backstretch behind a moderate early pace, angled four wide at the top of the stretch, and delivered a big late kick to blow by the rail rally of Dogtag to win by length and a half. She completed her final quarter of a mile in 22.86 seconds and her win was flattered when Dogtag returned to win Allowance N2X and Possibly Perfect Stakes in her next two starts with 88 and 89 Beyer Speed Figures respectively. Her connections became ambitious when she returned in the Grade 1 Gamely on May 25 at Santa Anita trying to stretch her late kick to 1-⅛ miles for the first time and she ran well behind the perfect trip stalking winner Keeper of the Stars to lose by length and a quarter. In that race, she found herself towards the rear of the field behind a fast pace set by uncontested leader Giza Goddess early. She moved up one off the rail in the two path on the far turn, angled five wide at the top of the stretch, and delivered a final three-eighths in 34.56 seconds to catch second over Mucho Unusual. The chestnut filly returns from a seventy-five day layoff with seven workouts including five furlong moves with stablemate and recent Wickker Stakes winner Bob and Jackie on July 30 in 1:02.20 (Bodhicitta - July 30) where the Handicapper’s Report clocker gave it a B stating “appearing best, good work for her,” and he also gave her two previous works on this turf course a B as well. Regular rider Flavien Prat who is second in the jockey standings with seven turf wins remains in the irons and drawn well in post position two I expect her to save ground and unleash her devastating late kick to spring the minor upset. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (2) BODHICITTA at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #3 Tonahutu, #7 Beau Recall. Small reverse for each. 

Daily Double: (2) BODHICITTA with (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ  

Race 10: SUPERMAN SHAQ (#4, 7-2)

The morning line favorite that will get the majority of attention will be the $1 million Keeneland September 2019 purchase Spielberg who was the highest priced yearling from the sixty-three yearlings by his sire Union Rags. He is trained by trainer Bob Baffert who has started two debuting maidens sprinting on the main track this meet and both return winners as the favorite, Happier (July 31, 2020, $1.20-1) with 89 Beyer Speed Figure and Freedom Fighter (August 1, 2020, $0.50-1) with a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. He enters this race with the prequisite fast works with two of his four workouts over the Del Mar main track best of the morning. Two issues with this pricey yearling is the pedigree is not to win early and he has shown the lack of quick gate speed. By 11% first time out sire by the dam Miss Sequel who won three of seventeen starts and won all three starts routing on the main track and her only foal High Road won his two starts routing on an off track. Moreover, I am concerned with his ability to break fast from the gate as he was slow into stride in his half-mile spin on 46.20 on July 20 (Spielberg - July 20). Instead I am more interested and strongly feel that SUPERMAN SHAQ has the combination of win early pedigree, high price purchase, and excellent workouts to suggest this Peter Miller trainee is ready to win in his career debut. He cost $550,000 at the Ocala Spring Sale which was the highest priced two-year old from the fourteen two-year olds by Shackleford at the sale. The female family is the reason that he fetched such a high price as the dam Drumette has produced five winners from five starters with two of those winners two-year old winners. Her standout foal is Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and Breeders Cup Distaff winner Monomoy Girl who has won eleven of thirteen starts including three wins from four starts as a two-year old and Mr. Monomoy who won two of five starts including one of three starts as a two-year old. Superman Shaq enters this race with seven workouts including a visually impressive five furlong move in 1:01.60 on July 27 (Superman Shaq - July 27) where he broke fast to outbreak his workmate, waited for his mate to catch up into the turn, re-broke again to work to the five furlong pole and galloping out past it while his workmate ended the work and three-quarter pole in a work that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B- stating he “has ability, outworked an older horse and is worth following.” Trainer Peter Miller is off to fast start this meet as the leading trainer and has connected at a 50% clip (4/2-0-1) with his two-year olds making their debut in maiden special weight dirt sprints as both winners were not the favorite, What’s Up Surfer (July 12, 2020, $2.90-1) and Good with People (July 12, 2020, $3.00-1). The gate speed he shown in his July 27 work and his subsequent August 2 work that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave him a B will give him an advantage over the morning line favorite Spielberg and with the percoious win early breeding and his trainer’s fast start this meet, I expect Superman Shaq to break running and make every pole a winning one at a hint of a price in the first leg of the late Daily Double. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #3 Noble Reflection, #8 Dr. Schivel. Small reverse for each. 

Daily Double: (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ with (6) SWEET DEVIL. 

Race 11: SWEET DEVIL (#6, 5-1)

The new face in the Del Mar finale Ya Beauty I respect as she received positive Timeform Foreign comments on her runner-up effort on June 24 versus twelve horse field where she was three and three-quarter lengths in front of the rest of the field as she is “open to further improvement and is well up to winning a similar event.” The filly I will be taking a stand against is the second choice on the morning line Nurse Goodbody who has disappointed at odds of 2-1 and 8-5 in her last two starts. When she ran second beaten a length on May 24 she was part of a bunched field where the first seven horses were separated by four and a quarter lengths and last time out she was the beaten favorite where she was “struggling four-wide under a drive in the far turn, completely empty in the stretch,” according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. She is a bet against and the top preference goes back to my top selection on July 11. SWEET DEVIL has managed to finish in the money only once in three starts on the turf but each of those starts was better than it appears on paper. In her career debut, she was dismissed at 37-1 in her career debut on January 11 where she ran a respectable race to defeat more than half the field to wire despite racing greenly through the stretch rallying in traffic to lose by only four-lengths and galloped out very well after the wire to indicate additional ground should pose no problem. She stretched out to 1-⅛ miles in her next start and she ran well to finish third beaten only a half-length in a race where she lost ground around both turns and was close to early pace that saw the two leaders weaken to finish fifth and seventh. She was a little head strong early crossing the wire for the first time and was parked three wide on the first turn and into the backstretch chasing the two leaders Nu Pi Lambda and Undisturbed. She made a three wide move on the far turn to take over the lead into the stretch and refused to quit easily staying on gamely through deep stretch as the two rivals that outfinished Sweet Devil rallied from seventh and sixth after the first half-mile. After a dirt debacle on May 17 versus a key race field, she returned to turf on July 11 and lost more ground than the one-length margin of defeat would indicate. The daughter of Daredevil broke from post position eleven in an eleven horse field and was parked three wide on the first turn and stayed that wide down the backstretch, moved up three wide on the far turn and into the stretch and “battled tenaciously down the center of the track, beaten a neck for second,” according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. The Mike McCarthy trainee is drawn better this afternoon and I expect to get a ground saving trip under Juan Hernandez who has four turf wins this meet.  She has been the victim of some tough trips in her recent turf starts but if Sweet Devil gets a clean ground saving trip she can break through with her diploma in her fifth career start as my BEST BET on the card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (6) SWEET DEVIL at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #11 Ya Beauty. Small reverse for each.

Small Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #5 Noble Hearted. No reverse. 

Del Mar Pick 3 Race 9

Race 9: (2) BODHICITTA, (3) Tonahutu, (7) Beau Recall

Race 10: (3) Noble Reflection, (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ, (8) Dr. Schivel 

Race 11: (6) SWEET DEVIL, (11) Ya Beauty

Ticket 1: 2 with 3,4,8 with 6,11  = 1 x 3 x 2 x $2 = $12 

Ticket 2: 2,3,7 with 4 with 6,11  = 3 x 1 x 2 x $2 = $12 

Ticket 3: 2,3,7 with 3,4,8 with 6 = 3 x 3 x 1 x $2 = $18 

Total Wager: $42 

 

Guitty Looks for Clean Journey in San Clemente

Race 3: LAMBEAU (#6, 3-1) 

The morning line favorite Dark Vader comes into this race with the best last race 95 Beyer and 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure with his third-place finish in the G2 Triple Bend Handicap behind multiple Grade 1 winner McKenzie. That was his first start in 338-days and he is eligible to improve but this five-year old has two issues that can compromise his chances on the drop in class. First is the likely early pace of this race as TimeformUS pace projector predicts this race will unfold at a tepid pace and this mid-pack stalker is dependent on the early speed coming back to him and second he has yet to show the winning spirit with six combined seconds or thirds from twelve starts. The lack of early speed in this race really helps LAMBEAU to dictate his own terms on the front end for the Zenyatta connections of Jerry Moss, trainer John Shirreffs, and jockey Mike Smith. He is at home at this one mile distance with a record of 3/2-0-1 and exits a fast pace gate to wire score at this trip sixty-nine days ago at Santa Anita. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the son of First Sarmurai “avoided pressure to open up around the first turn and onto the backstretch, Smith allowed him to take a breather around the far turn, turned back a challenge from the runner-up leaving that bend to deep stretch, kicked away again to the wire,” earning the third-highest last race 92 Beyer and second-highest last race 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field. The dark bay or brown colt set a very fast early pace as he earned off the chart Moss Pace Figures (+16, +7) and he owns the best TimeformUS early pace rating in this field making him the clear pacesetter in this event. The form of his allowance victory was validated when second-and-fourth place finishers returned to run second-and-first at the same class level in their next start earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 93 and 94 respectively and the seventh-place finisher Justin’s Quest duplicated his 80 Beyer Speed Figure when he dropped to N2L claiming event and won by a half-length in his next start. The brief hiatus of sixty-nine days is strong strength for the John Shiirreffs barn as he has won at 33% (18/6-4-3) in the past five years with his dirt routers returning off a sixty to eighty day layoff. With Mike Smith aggressive front running tactics, LAMBEAU should make the early lead into the first turn and down the backstretch and prove a tough rival to run down as the pacesetter and our BEST BET on today’s card. 

Wagering Strategy:

Main Exacta part-wheel: 6-3. No reverse. 

Smaller Exacta part-wheel: 6-7. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #6 Lambeau with #6 Secret Keeper 

Pick 3 part-wheel: #6 Lambeau with #6 Secret Keeper with #8 Never Be Enough, #1 Unicorn, and #3 Woodfin. 

Race 4: SECRET KEEPER (#6, 9-2)

The majority of the betting public will either concede this race to the Bob Baffert uncoupled entry mates Meredith and flashy maiden winner Provocation who will go off favored over her stablemate. My issue with both horses is they each broke their maiden around one turn and did so under ideal circumstances where they were going to deliver winning performances that earned them “ridden out” chart comment. Meredith broke her maiden on April 19 over a sloppy main track at Oaklawn Park where she pressed the pace in the clear, took over from overmatched leaders, and geared down earning career best 91 Beyer and 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The issue with that win was she pressed a very slow early pace according to Moss Pace Figures (-16, -4) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures versus a sub-par field as the nine-horses that have run back it has produced only one winner, Ocean Breeze, who earned improved 80 Beyer Speed Figure and the rest of the field are combined produced three third-place finishers and five that finished off the board. Provocation broke her maiden on closing day of Santa Anita where it was a match race between her and stable mate Himiko as those two finished eleven and a half lengths in front of the rest of the field with Provocation able to dictate terms on the front end and won by length and three-quarters “handily.” The issue with that win is the slow pace she dictated as she earned below average Moss Pace Figures (-14, -5) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. I will play against both at short prices and go for another maiden winner in SECRET KEEPER. Another daughter of Into Mischief, she was ignored in her career debut going off at 10-1 on May 25 in a race where the Bob Baffert trained first time starter, Fierce for Sul, was sent off at 3-5 and this Cliff Sise Jr. trainee proved she was ready for the challenge running down that rival to score the upset. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “she ran off the rail 4 lengths down, working a bit to keep her margin even in the turn, coming into the lane wide, maintaining her effort, driving by in the final 1/16th to win going away.” Despite only earning a 77 Beyer Speed Figure, her 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure is on par with the two favorites in this field. She will make her first start off a sixty-one day layoff and she trained very well over the Del Mar surface posting three works locally including five furlong move in 59 ⅘ on July 11 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “sharp looking spin looping around a barnmate and a 4f working M McCarthy trainee going clear in a big 36.4, 59.3 (22.4 LQ). Loads to like here.” She has speed to lead but if Meredith and Provocation elect to go as TimeformUS pace projector predicts then jockey Abel Cedillo can place SECRET KEEPER in third just off those two leaders in the garden spot and pounce. At a price that will be much higher and credentials to win, this home bred filly is the clear choice to upset the top two finishers and can spice up prices in multi-race bets with a win in this first condition Allowance event. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (6) SECRET KEEPER at 7-2 or better. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #6 Secret Keeper with #8 Never Be Enough, #1 Unicorn, and #3 Woodfin. 

Race 5: NEVER BE ENOUGH (#8, 9-2) 

The morning line favorite Pretty Point drops from Possibly Perfect Stakes where she finished third behind three time stakes winner Dogtag and finished in front of Streak of Luck who returned to win $75,000 stakes at Canterbury Downs in her next start. The belief in the betting public is the extra eighth of a mile of this 1-⅜ distance will benefit her closing kick but she is a filly that is another that lacks winning spirit as she has combined to finish second or third five times from twelve starts. Although the TimeformUS pace projector does not predict a slow pace, there is a lack of confirmed early pace in this field and with her lack of winning punch in the stretch and lack of speed in this field, Pretty Point is a bet against her in this field. The distance will pose no problem for NEVER BE ENOUGH who successfully won going two miles over testing soft ground on the hurdles back in August 2019. She also proved adept at flat racing winning twice at the distance of mile and seventy yards on firm ground. The daughter of Sir Percy made her first start off a 118-day layoff on May 17 for a claiming price of $40,000 and she ran a respectable third beaten three lengths behind the favored gate to wire winner True to Herself. In that race, she sat off the favored winner in the two path early as the winner was allowed to dictate a very slow early pace earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-17, -8) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. The Manuel Badilla trainee made her run at the leader at the top of the stretch but the layoff and the winner being fresh after setting a slow pace proved too much as she tired in the final furlong to be third with her uncoupled stablemate Qafilah rallied to finish second. That race served as perfect prep as she came back twenty-seven days later and won with a perfect trip. In that race she saved ground for the majority of the race sitting in fourth behind three-horse speed duel early, came off the rail and split rivals in the stretch and won going away defeating next out winner Northwest Factor in the process. Never Be Enough earned a career best 85 Beyer Speed Figure and that figure is validated by the run backs in that field. Northwest Factor earned a 77 Beyer Speed Figure (six point improvement), Reginella earned a 75 Beyer Speed Figure in her next start (four point improvement), and Lasting Light earned a 72 Beyer Speed Figure (eighteen point improvement) finishing second in N2X in her next start. She ships to Del Mar for the first time at a distance that will pose no issue and surface she handled equally well in England. She has come back with two works over the Del Mar main track that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved giving both a B+ but her 1:00 ⅗ spin on July 11 stood out as he commented she was “full of run in this spin going faster than given while striding out in 34.3, 59.0. Going great these days.” Jockey Evan Roman rides her for the first time and in a field filled with midpack or closers, she is the projected pacesetter in this field according to TimeformUS pace projector and she should dictate terms on the front end and should be set for another winning effort in her third start off the layoff. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (8) NEVER BE ENOUGH at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #1 Unicorn, #3 Woodfin. Small reverse. 

Race 7: TILTED TOWERS (#8, 8-1)

This wide open maiden sprint on the turf can go many ways but one note I had on my DRF Formulator past performances to play against horses running back from the maiden turf sprint on June 14 won by long shot Tripoli as that race was visually unimpressive with the first seven finishers separated by three and a half lengths and visual aspect was matched by the speed figure as it earned subpar 72 Beyer Speed Figure and second choice on the morning line, Absolute Unit, exits that race and that was his third runner-up finish from seven starts and is developing a case of being a bridesmaid. The field’s most likely pacesetter belongs to my top preference TILTED TOWERS who will make her second career start off a 420-day layoff where he flashed speed and weakened to defeat one rival in a seven-horse field in his only start. He is by Atreides who won four of five starts in his brief career including his first three by a combined twenty-five and three-quarter lengths with Beyer Speed Figures of 105, 102, and 105. His dam Rich Love won only once in six starts but that one win was her second career start where she won sprinting on the turf. He got support in his first start going off as the 6-1 third choice where she was step slow from the start, rushed up to contest a very fast first quarter of a mile with the favored winner Comical Ghost, continued to duel with that rival around the far turn and tried to hang tough with that rival to the top of the stretch before finally giving way to lose by twelve and a half lengths in a race where the winner earned 88 Beyer Speed Figure. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to repeat her 88 Beyer Speed Figure winning Allowance N1X, third-place finisher Oakland Mills returned to break his maiden with a 82 Beyer Speed Figure (eight point improvement) and the fourth-place finisher earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure (five point improvement) in his next start. Despite the long layoff, TILTED TOWERS has returned with a series of strong drills at Los Alamitos capped off by 59 second move from the gate on July 18 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “strong from the gate with Foster Boi going better than mate in 59. Big series for return.” He earned above average Moss Pace Figure for the first quarter of a mile (+4) and red coded TimeformUS pace figure for that lone race and she is projected to be the field’s pacesetter in this field. In a field where the morning line favorite is trying the turf for the first time and the second choice exits subpar race, TILTED TOWERS is a new face where strong series of B workouts according to National Turf workout report and early speed to make him dangerous on the front end under new rider Abel Cedillo. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (8) TILTED TOWERS at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #5 Mystery Man, #6 Highly Distorted, and #10 Colossal Storm. Small reverse. 

Pick 3 part-wheel: #5 Mystery Man, #6 Highly Distorted, #8 Tilted Towers, #10 Colossal Storm with #10 Zimba Warrior with #10 Guitty, #3 Laura’s Light, #9 Warren’s Showtime

Race 8: ZIMBA WARRIOR (#10, 6-1)

The morning line favorite Hidden Promise exits a second-place finish versus older rivals in a $30,000 N2L claiming event beaten a head. However that race visually was not as impressive as the finish position and beaten margin would indicate. The Blame gelding enjoyed a perfect trip stalking in third in the clear as the eventual winner Queen’s Mason pressed a slow early pace that earned below average Moss Pace Figures (-7, -5) and blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He ranged up alongside the winner at the top of the stretch to poke his head in front past mid-stretch and was out finished towards the wire to lose by a head showing lack of gameness in the stretch. In addition, the form of that race matched my visual impression of that race as it has produced five horses to return and all five horses including the winner returned to finish off the board with four of those runners regressed in their Beyer Speed Figures. The gamble is that It's That Time will flee from post position two and Antitheical will press him from the outside to set up for the late kick of ZIMBA WARRIOR who drops into a claiming only event for the first time. I will draw a line through his most recent debacle where he trailed throughout in the one mile Alcatraz Stakes on the turf behind the winner Kanderel who returned to run second behind the favorite Hit It A Bomb in the opening day Oceanside Stakes. The Khozan colt sprinted in his two previous starts and each start would be good enough to win this event. The last time he sprinted on the main track was on May 25 at Santa Anita where he rallied from last in a five horse field to be second behind Ragtime Blue who was able to enjoy an uncontested lead through moderate early fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (-3, -3). Although the race only produced one next out winner in Mo Hawk, the run backs of the entrants in this field prove the race was better than the 79 Beyer Speed Figure it earned. The winner earned a 83 Beyer Speed Figure (four point improvement) finishing second in Laz Berrera Stakes behind sprint specialist Colliusion Illusion and the third thru fifth place finishers improved their Beyer Speed Figures by ten, eight, and eighteen points respectively in their next start. Before that runner-up performance, this Keith Desormeaux trainee ran second behind the best of speed winner Jive Talkin in Allowance N1X on the tapeta at Golden Gate where he rallied for second against a strong speed bias. This is a significant drop in class as the previous time he ran for a claiming tag on May 25 that race was an Allowance event with Optional Claiming price of $80,000 and this race is restricted to claiming only. Jockey Kent Desormeaux knows this colt having ridden him in four of ten starts and this chesnut has back class having finished third behind subsequent UAE 2000 Guineas winner Fore Left as a two-year old and was third behind eventual Grade 1 Haskell winner Authentic in the Grade 3 Sham at the beginning of the year. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (10) ZIMBA WARRIOR at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #2 It’s That Time and #7 Antitheical. No reverse. 

Small Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #3 Hidden Promise. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #10 Zimba Warrior with #10 Guitty, #3 Laura’s Light, #9 Warren’s Showtime

Race 9: GUITTY (#10, 20-1)

I do not have knocks on the two morning line favorites Laura’s Light and Warren’s Showtime except for the price they are expected to be at post time. Outside of the price aspect there is one entrant in this field that ran behind those two rivals that was compromised by consecutive bad trips that with a clean trip she deserves a chance to turn the tables at what should be a giant price. GUITTY flashed ability in her first two starts here at Del Mar over this same one-mile trip before she went off form at the end of last year. She returned from a sixty-nine day layoff in the China Doll Stakes on March 7 and finished sixth in a bunched field that saw the first ten separated by five lengths but GUITTY did not have the best of trips. She broke from post twelve in a thirteen horse field and found herself three wide into and around the first turn and raced that wide on the backstretch. The Leonard Powell trainee found herself in traffic issues on the far turn running three wide and had her momentum briefly stalled behind a wall of rivals entering the stretch, angled five wide at the top of the stretch, split rivals, and finished well to lose by less than three-lengths. The extent of her bad trip is reflected in Trakus as she covered 35 feet more than the winner Warren’s Showtime. She stretched out an additional furlong in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes on May 30 and did not get the best of rides by jockey Brice Blanc. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she was “forced in at the break and took up linking up with the course proper, traveled keenly at the rear of the field, taken three-wide by her pilot approaching the half-mile pole, circled the field into the far turn, kept coming three-wide in the far turn, carried five-wide into the lane, bid to midstretch, in tight and steadied, flipped onto her wrong lead, plodded to the wire.” After consecutive bad trips, she switches to new rider Juan Hernandez who was aboard the Powell trained Proud Pedro (July 24, 2020, $21) to win Allowance N2X going 1-⅜ miles on the turf yesterday and GUITTY has really blossomed since returning to Del Mar according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. She has worked twice over the Del Mar turf course both B+ moves with her July 7 work in 49 seconds flat Andy commented “full of run in this solo move rolling home with a strong pull in 25.2, 49.0 (23.3 LQ). Feeling great down here.” With the dedicated front runner in Cheermeister and morning line favorite Laura’s Light not too far behind, the pace should be honest for GUITTY’s late kick. At her morning line and with a clean trip, the gamble is she can turn the tables on her aforementioned rivals to spring the major upset in the San Clemente. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (10) GUITTY at 10-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #3 Laura’s Light and #9 Warren’s Showtime. Small reverse.