Raymundos Secret Finds Perfect Pace Scenario in the Mabee

 Race 3: WHIRL CANDY (#4, 5-1)

The morning line favorite, Seiche, exits a third place finish on August 15 and now stretches out in his second career start. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the son of Super Saver “trailed badly, moved closer around the far turn, tried to come through inside the leader, but did not have clear sailing past midstretch allowing the winner first run, one-paced when clear, missed the place.” The even running style suggests he should relish the two turns but his subsequent training after that respectable effort and his trainer’s surprisingly lack of success with second start maiden stretching out for the first time leaves Seiche vulnerable as the favorite. He worked a half mile on August 30 in 49.3 that Handicapper’s Report clocker reported “did not look as good as usual in this five furlong work, wearing blinkers, going off from the 1/2 mile pole, opening 1/4 in 24.4, raising his head crossing the wire while being coaxed along in 49.1, still being coaxed down to the 7/8 pole in 102.0, so-so work, a bit disappointing this week,” for C+ move. Secondly, trainer Bob Baffert is only 8% (3-for-39) the past five years with his trainees making their second start stretching out to a route on the main track for the first time. I am looking elsewhere and in this race a horse that made my horses to watch list on July 26 for his game third-place finish over this same layout. WHIRL CANDY had finished off the board in his first three starts before trainer Richard Baltas decided to geld him, took the blinkers off and try routing on the main track for the first time in his fourth career start and he ran his best race finishing third earning the co highest last race 77 Beyer Speed Figure where he earned this figure under very difficult circumstances. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “raced to the front, left the rail open into the first turn, settled on the leader’s flank, pressed the tempo to the far turn, took command, dueled into the lane, led to deep stretch, tagged for second.” This was a very fast early pace earning kamikaze Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+21,+10) and earning corresponding red coded TimeformUS pace figures. The pace was so fast it saw the leader, Winner’s Club, tire to finish eighth beaten 19-½ lengths as this son of Twirling Candy won the battle for the early lead but lost the war. He has returned with four workouts including best of 28 five furlong move on August 28 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a respectable B- stating “asked for a good work, opening ⅜ in 35.2, asked through the stretch, up in 59.4, a decent work, but let run.” The speed of this field and retaining the services of Flavien Prat this dark bay or brown gelding will flash his speed to the first turn and with an easier pace scenario can race gate to wire as one of two recommended singles on your multi-race wagers on Saturday Del Mar card. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) WHIRL POWER at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #2 Charlito, #8 A.P. Pharoah. Small reverse for each. 

Race 8: LIBERAL (#4, 12-1)

The morning line favorite Whopping Jay will make his third start this meet and exits a win versus California-bred Allowance on August 14 but his status as the favorite is really based on his second place finish in the California Dreamin Stakes where he finished second beaten only a half length behind the favored perfect trip and five time winner Galilean. That California bred stakes event was not the most productive. Out of the also ran, Take the One O One, who returned to the main track to win Allowance N2X with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure, six horses returned from that race producing one winner, one second place finish, and four horses finishing off the board including the Galiean who finished fifth in the Del Mar Mile on August 23 duplicating his 90 Beyer Speed Figure. His win on August 14 was against a weak field of California-breds Allowance N1X. The third place finisher Jetovator is a five time loser at that class level and the field was bunched at the wire with the first five finishers seperated by only 2-¼ lengths at the wire. Instead I am going to prefer a horse taking a step up in class but faced a key race field in his last race. LIBERAL has only a N2L win on the turf on May 16 at Santa Anita but that race was an indication that this Irish bred was rounding into form. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “settled at the back of the pack, traveled willingly along the inside down the backstretch, rallied under cover into contention in the far turn, split runners into the lane, bid between runners midstretch, rallied to the lead, powered through the wire.” The field was well strung out behind him a sign of a quality victory and the runner up returned to win earning a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. He returned from a 83 day layoff on August 7 and ran into a productive field finishing second behind the runaway winner Scarto. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “had only his stablemate beat inside, picked off horses along the rail around the far turn, came out leaving that bend, no threat to the winner, up for the place. He was helped by the raceshape.” The raceshape did aid his rally as the fractions were fast enough to earn a red coded TimeformUS pace figure and the form of this has already been flattered. The winner returned to win Allowance N1X on August 31 with a 87 Beyer Speed Figure, third place finisher returned to run second on the main track in a Starter Allowance earning 81 Beyer Speed Figure, and the fifth place finisher returned to run second earning a 77 Beyer Speed Figure in Allowance N1X on the turf at Golden Gate. The Patrick Gallagher trainee has returned with an easy maintenance half mile work in 49.2 on August 29 and retains the services of jockey Drayden Van Dyke for the third straight time. He will make his first start at this 1-⅛ miles but with his excellent post position (four), he should save ground leaving the chute and around both turns and with any clear sailing at the top of the stretch flash that potent late kick at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) LIBERAL at 8-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #3 Dubby Dubbie, #5 Rocky Tough. Small reverse for each. 

Race 9: TOBACCO ROAD (#7, 6-1)

The bet against in this race goes towards the second choice on the morning line Camby who makes his second start at this N3L class level after finishing third as the 5-2 second choice on August 9 here at Del Mar. Given the trip he encountered with moderate early pace to chase or pressed, this son of Candy Ride no excuse. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “raced midfield to the far turn, bore down on the lead four-deep to the quarter-pole, briefly poked his nose in front, raced five-wide into the lane, bid to deep stretch, best of the rest.” The part about that note was that he failed to kick on from mid-stretch to the wire as he hung badly losing second to Self Taught who was a 1-½ length off the lead at the eighth pole and Camby failed to finish the job to win or finish second. The horse who exits the fastest races and is nice price on the morning line goes to the closer TOBACCO ROAD who will need the right trip and pace scenario for him to get over bridesmaid status of six combined seconds or thirds from 22 starts but he finds the right field this afternoon to get him over his tendency to finish second or third. He made his first start at Del Mar on opening day at this N3L class level where he caught the razor sharp front runner Julius in a highly rated event for the class level (86 Beyer Speed Figure). According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “had one beat cantering on his own 11 lengths down, beginning his long march forward through foes with an inside path in the turn, sustaining his long effort to snatch 2nd late.” The early pace that Julius set as the uncontested leader was moderate according to the Moss Pace Figures (+2,+4) and the validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to win a Starter Allowance on August 2 with 86 Beyer Speed Figure and then ran second in Allowance N1X with an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. This runner up effort gave his connections confidence to enter him in a Starter Allowance on August 15 and he ran into another highly rated event (86 Beyer Speed Figure) won the “Ship and Win” favored winner Pyron. In that race, he “lagged at the rear two-deep, passed the back markers outside around the far turn, four-wide for the drive, late gain, won the battle for the show.” He now drops back to N3L and returns with a half-mile maintenance work on August 27. He should get pace for his late run with morning line favorite Street Image going for the early lead stretching out a furlong from his last two starts and will get pressure from Octopus drawn outside of him. If that pace scenario materializes then I expect jockey Ricky Gonzalez to allow Tobacco Road to settle early and will grind away through the stretch to pick up the tiring leaders in the final furlong. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (7) TOBACCO ROAD at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #7 with #4 Street Image, #11 Red Valor. Small reverse for each. 

Race 10: RAYMUNDOS SECRET (#8, 2-1)

With four victories on the turf, two off the board finishes, and making his second start off 293 day layoff and for trainer Phil D’Amato I see RAYMUNDOS SECRET only improving in her second race this year as the morning line favorite. The daughter of Treasure Beach two off the board finishes including in last year’s Del Mar Oaks was the result of this filly going too fast too soon. In her last start of 2019, Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes, the bay filly got caught in a vicious speed duel with 29-1 longshot Giza Goddness as those two opened up a 2 and 1-½ length lead on the rest of the field through fast fractions of 45.01 and 1:08.44 for the first six furlongs that were fast enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She remained in the battle with that rival all the way to mid stretch before finally giving way to finish fifth in a very good effort considering the fast pace set it up for the horses coming from off the pace as the first, third, and fourth place finishers rallied from sixth, seventh, and ninth after the first half mile as Giza Goddness and Raymundos Secret ran the two best races in that that race. She returned from a 293 day layoff in her first start for trainer Phil D’Amato in a Allowance N2X on August 14 and she made her four year old debut a winning one but her neck margin of victory is deceiving as was really only asked to run the last eighth of a mile. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “eased her way back to sit in the leader’s draft, looking primed in the turn, waiting for room in upper stretch, bulling her way out midstretch, kicking strongly to get up in the final stride.” The two parts of this victory that was impressive was she completed her final quarter of a mile in co fastest 23.34 seconds and did so against the race shape as the second and third place finishers ran first and second throughout and second part was she galloped out strongly after the wire towards the backstretch as this was a perfect prep for the stretch out to 1-⅛ of the Mabee. She is the leader in TimeformUS early pace ratings and should navigate the lead into the first lead with Flavien Prat remaining in the irons as the Southern California filly and mare turf division has taken turns in defeating each other this year. She comes into the race with impressive five furlong move on the turf course on August 30 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave her a B stating “five furlongs over the sod with the dogs up, we had the final 1/2 of this work in 48.3, never asked at all, striding out well to the wire, a good work for the recent winner, who will likely surface in the Mabee closing weekend.” In the past five years on the turf course here at Del Mar in Graded Stakes, trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Flavien Prat have connected at gaudy 38% (13/5-2-0) and they look to continue that successful trend with Raymundos Secret as my second single on the Saturday Del Mar card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (8) RAYMUNDOS SECRET at 8-5 or better. 

Trifecta part-wheel: 8 with 2 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 = $15 for a $3 Wager 

Trifecta part-wheel: 8 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with 2 = $5 for a $1 Wager. 

Race 11: TIZAMAGICIAN (#1, 8-1)

The morning line favorite Nolo Contesto has developed a bad case of finishing second. Since defeating the now retired and last year’s morning line favorite for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, Omaha Beach, the son of Pioneer of the Nile has finished second in three subsequent fast main track events including his last two starts. In his last start on August 1 I could not find an excuse for his third second place finish behind his stablemate Shortlist. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran inside 4 lengths down, inching forward midrace, pushing forward 3-wide in the final turn, stalling out on the fading leader in the upper stretch, chasing on after the winner in the lane to earn a clear 2nd.” He ran third chasing the very fast pace speed duel between Rayray and Dreams of Valor who set fast fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures (+15,+5). Instead I prefer a horse that finished behind him in that same race that I expect to make the early lead in this race. TIZAMAGICIAN is a horse that has always promised more than he has delivered in his ten starts. The son of Tiznow has disappointed as the post time favorite in four occasions but I could find excuses for his two debacles on a fast main track where he will be overlooked in the finale. He returned from a 111 day layoff on May 22 at Santa Anita where he was bet down to the 7-5 post time favorite and from a trip standpoint one cannot find a real excuse. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “pushed the pace onto the backstretch, applied heavy pressure down the backstretch, could not go with the winner heading into the far turn, stayed on to midstretch, one-paced to the wire.” The excuses I found in this race are firstly the layoff and secondly the fast pace he pressed chasing or pressing the gate to wire winner Take the One O One as it earned above average Moss Pace Figures (+8,+3). I will a draw a line through his race in the Oceanside Stakes because it was the wrong surface and class level and he returned to the main track at this N1X class level and finished fifth beaten four lengths behind the rail skimming rally winner Shortlist but he had a tough trip that is not described in the Bid 4 wide, weakened comment in your past performances. According to Trip Notes Pro, he “Floated out on the 1st turn by #2, Nolo Contesto. Reach normally wouldn’t have been a big deal except it took him into the 6path and (3) rivals advanced up inside of him. Caught 4W (6deep) entire 1st turn and down the BS. Tugged along to advance 4W into the FT and almost made it to the lead. Began flattening out in the lane and had every excuse to stop running but give him extra credit for continuing to try to the wire. SNEAKY good gallop out.” He has come back with three workouts including a sharp three 59.3 five furlong move on August 26 followed by a maintenance three furlong blow out four days ago. He is drawn on the rail and gets Drayden Van Dyke in the irons for the first time and I expect him to be sent for the early lead as he and Mongolian Legend are the only entrants in this field with triple digit TimeformUS early pace ratings in this field. With aggressive tactics from the start, Tizamagician stands an excellent chance to spring the upset in the finale. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (1) TIZAMAGICIAN at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #3 Strongconstitution, #5 Ronamo, #6 Royal Act. Small reverse. 

Del Mar Race 8 Pick 4

Race 8: (3) Dubby Dubbie, (4) Liberal, (5) Rocky Tough 

Race 9: (4) Street Image, (7) TOBACCO ROAD, (11) Red Valor 

Race 10: (8) RAYMUNDOS SECRET 

Race 11: (1) Tizamagician, (3) Strongconstitution, (5) Ronamo, (6) Royal Act

Main Ticket: 3,4,5 with 7 with 8 with 1,3,5,6 = 3 x 1 x 1 x 4 x $2 = $24 

Ticket 1: 3,4,5 with 4,11 with 8 with 1,3,5,6  = 3 x 2 x 1 x 4 x $1 = $24 

Total Wager: $48  

 

Kanderel Looks to Run Down the Favorite in the La Jolla

 Race 6: KALINE (#2, 10-1) 

This is an excellent betting race because I am looking to defeat the two morning line favorites. Tropical Terror and Hammering Lemon are a combined 11/0-6-1 on the turf with the former having lost as the post time favorite three times. Although he ran second in his last start in these exact same conditions, Hammering Lemon should not have lost on July 10 as he enjoyed a comfortable trip on the front end through slow fractions and was worn down by the pace presser Cali Caliente. I respect Luvluv but I believe he will be bet down based on his trainer John Sadler and jockey Umberto Rispoli. Instead I want to back a new face trying turf for the first time and be bred for it and I landed on KALINE. He has run twice over the Tapeta at Golden Gate and each race was an improvement over the previous start. The son of Grazen made his career debut on May 24 where he lacked the early speed to keep up with the leaders racing four wide in midpack down the backstretch and continued that wide through the far turn and into the stretch where he turned in a respectable rally through the stretch to finish fourth against the grain race shape that favored horses on or near the lead with the first two finishers running first and second after the first quarter of a mile as Kaline was the only horse in that field to make up any ground through the stretch. The former Steve Specht trainee stretched out to two turns for the first time and ran into a gate to wire runaway winner Lookin for Revenge who flattered that event by returning to win on July 3 with a 79 Beyer Speed Figure (eight point improvement). In that race, he did the dirty work chasing or pressing the favored winner through fast fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (+6,+4) and was fast enough to earn a red coded TimeformUS pace figure. Kaline was outrun by the winner into the stretch and lost second on the wire. He is now transferred to the barn of Quinn Howley who conditions Indian Peak in the Grade 3 La Jolla and that trainee has a 4/2-2-0 record on the turf. Kaline is bred to adore the surface as her dam Way Up won four of thirteen starts on the turf including two of those routing on the turf. She has produced ten winners from fourteen foals including turf route winners, Wavy Lass (4-for-8), Unusual Way (1-for-4), Laditudefortytwo (1-for-5), Cowboy (2-for-5), and Cali Way (2-for-5). She got acclimated with her surroundings with five furlong move in 1:02.4 on July 30 that Handicapper’s Report clocker stated “not asked in this five furlong maintenance spin, going off in 37.4, moving easily in 102.2, just a leg stretcher for the Golden Gate invader, who should be seen with Cal-bred maidens.” Giovanni Franco takes over in the irons and he has landed a live mount with turf route oriented pedigree for a capable trainer and finds a weak field to graduate with his diploma drawn ideally in post position two. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (2) KALINE at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #1 Luvluv, #3 Table for Ten. Small reverse for each. 

Race 8: GINOBLI (#5, 8-1)

This is a competitive sprint on the turf where the morning line favorite Tribalist is a now nine-year old returning off 221 day layoff. The Tribal Rule gelding is at home returning off extended breaks as this Blake Heap trainee has won off 375 days, 359 days, and 384 day layoffs in the past. However, it has been almost three years since Tribalist has visited the winner circle and even through the Handicapper’s Report clocker has raved about his workouts coming up to this event with consecutive B+ works last his two works, if his connections wanted to protect this horse off the long layoff he could have been eligible for the rule where a horse laid off and has not started for a minimum of 180 days since its last race is not eligible to be claimed but he is being risked for $40,000. Can this nine-year old win? The answer is yes but do I want back him at a short price considering the multiple layoff lines and the fact his connections opted not to protect him off the long layoff. The horses that exit the very fast turf sprint won by Speedy Justice I respect and will use those three underneath my top choice who returns to the turf sprinting. GINOBLI was an impressive gate to wire winner in his second career start and then was reeled back too soon (sixteen days) in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity that was marred by an incident with Storm the Court and Eight Rings soon after the start. He was fourth in his only start on the turf and made his three-year old debut off 126-day layoff in the Grade 2 San Vicente where he gave the undefeated Nadal all he could handle in his first start versus winners. The son of Munnings broke running to flash early speed in a contested speed duel parked four wide down the backstretch and sat just off the favored winner Nadal through the turn and in the stretch where Ginobli had the lead at mid-stretch and was worn down by Nadal as this was a fast pace he contested according to Moss Pace Figures (+11,+8) and earned a red coded TimeformUS pace figure. His two starts at Oaklawn Park were filled with trouble in each start. In his fifth place finish as the 4-5 favoritie, Ginobli missed the start by length and half, rushed up between horses to chase the dueling leaders who contested a very fast first quarter (+11), shuffled back on the turn, and tried his best to re-rally through the lane to split the ten horse field finishing in front of two next out winners. He stretched out to two turns in his last start and broke about a length slow at the start, rushed up between rivals into the first turn only to run up on horses' heels and was parked four wide throughout and remained in the hunt until midway on the far turn and gave way to finish seventh, beaten fifteen lengths. He has returned with four workouts as a new gelding and has impressed Handicapper’s Report clocker with consecutive B works including a visually impressive spin on August 2 where he worked in company with Fivestar Lynch and “took a short advantage in the stretch, then waited on his workmate, definitely going best late in 47.3, never asked, a good work for the three-year-old, who has been gelded since his last start and looked good here.” It appears the time away has helped this three-year old and sprinting is what he does best. With those two ugly running lines disguised in his past performances, I expect Ginobli to be overlooked. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) GINOBLI at 9-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #3 Distant Vista, #4 Torosay, #6 Capture the Sea. Small reverse for each. 

Race 10: KANDEREL (#5, 10-1)

I respect the morning line favorite Smooth Like Strait as the field’s probable pacesetter but he can be challenged for the early lead by Indian Peak who displayed an premature move in his last start, Snow Chief, to challenge for the lead and did display a sharp middle move in a team work on July 30 here at Del Mar according to Handicapper’s Report clocker. The horse I am trying to beat in this race is second choice Storm the Court. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner is winless in four starts this year and now attempts to get back to form with the switch to the turf. He has recorded three turf workouts the past four weeks with the Handicapper’s Report clocker giving them B- with the comment of “appeared to handle the surface.” The main issue with Storm the Court is his pedigree to handle the surface switch. His sire, Court Vision, has produced only 9% (4-for-43) with turf routers the past five years and the information does not get better when you research the dam side. The dam, My Tejana Storm, won three of twelve starts all sprinting on the main track with a career best 92 Beyer Speed Figure and she has produced three winners from four starters. She has had only one starter try the turf, Belleoftheprairie, who won four of twenty-nine starts and won two of six starts on the turf but that was sprinting on the surface. She was winless in four starts routing on turf. Plus with his tactical speed he along with Indian Peak will look to chase or press Smooth Like Strait early and if the pace heats up during the middle part of this mile and a sixteenth event then it will set up very well for the improving KANDEREL. The son of Candy Ride enters this race in peak form having won and finished second in his last two starts and has displayed a wicked turn of late speed to suggest he can run down his rivals in the stretch. The Richard Mandella trainee managed to defeat four others in a key race turf sprint on May 15 that was too short for this colt. He stretched out to one-mile in the Alcatraz Stakes on June 13 where he stalked the uncontested leader Better Trip Nick in fourth early, moved up three wide on the far turn, angled three wide at the top of the stretch, drove to the front past mid-stretch, and safely held off the late bid of A Journey to Freedom defeating two next out winners in the process. Last time out he was dismissed at 17-1 in the Oceanside Stakes where he was compromised by rallying very wide while the favored winner, Hit the Road, enjoyed a perfect ground saving stalk and pounce trip. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran outside in the back half of the field, coiling up for run in the turn, looping 7-wide for the drive, unleashing a strong kick to run by the rest for 2nd.” Kanderel displayed an excellent turn of late speed running his third quarter in the co-fastest 24.15 seconds and ran his last quarter in the field’s best 23 seconds flat. He has returned with three workouts to indicate he has held his form and Juan Hernandez returns in the saddle. The dark bay or brown colt gets four pounds from the favorite and if he can manage to not lose alot of ground on the far turn and he has clear sailing at the top of the stretch then Kanderel can display that powerful late kick to run down Smooth Like Strait to score the upset. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) KANDEREL at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: 5-6. Reverse for half the amount. 

 

 

Bodhicitta Looks to Mow Them Down in the John Mabee

 Race 5: BEGUILDED (#1, 15-1)

This race that ends the early Pick 5 interests me the most on the entire card because of the possibility of throwing out the morning line favorite MEREDITH. She is by terrific first time turf stallion American Pharoah who connects at 17% with his progeny trying the grass for the first time but there is nothing on the female side of her pedigree and trainer’s record with surface switch from dirt to turf and sprint to route makes her bet against. Her dam Flattermewithroses won once in sixteen starts and tried routing on the turf five times without a win. Secondly, trainer Bob Baffert excels with debuting maidens sprinting on the main track and with three-year old pointing for the classic races but in the past five years he is 23/0-5-2 with his trainees going from dirt to turf and stretching out from a sprint to route. She figures to control the pace from start exiting a fast pace sprint but will find company for the lead with My Little Runaway and Summer Love forwardly placed. Instead, I am going to back a horse making her second race off the layoff exiting a tough trip seventh-place finish in her return. BEGUILDED is half sister to Phil D’Amato trained Fault who won six of sixteenth starts including Grade 2 Buena Vista at one-mile on the turf and Grade 1 Santa Margarita at mile and an eighth on the main track. She did not have a real visible excuse when she finished eighth in the China Doll Stakes as she raced between rivals behind a two horse duel and was always in good striking position but failed to show a late kick in a race where the first ten finishers were separated by only five lengths. The daughter of Orb returned from a 127-day layoff on July 12 where she was dismissed at 21-1 and was working like a filly that was going to need that first race off the layoff as she came into that event with three consecutive C+ works per the Handicapper’s Report clocker and she ran accordingly beaten five lengths but a closer inspection of that race reveals she had no chance with the trip she endured. Forced to break from post position ten in a ten horse field, she was parked four to five paths wide leaving the chute and ran around the first turn three wide and into the backstretch behind a slow early pace. Next to the wide journey, she took a funny step midway on the backstretch and into the far turn tried to commence a three to four wide run at the top of the stretch and lost her punch with her stablemate Carpe Vinum emerging victorious. She now makes her second race off the extended layoff and goes from the extreme outside to the rail to save ground under hot riding Juan Hernandez. The bay filly has returned to training much better with two works capped off by a 1:01.1 move on the turf that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B working with stable mate Zee Drop where “neither were asked.” I expect to see half of her morning line and that is acceptable and I expect her to move forward with a ground saving trip. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (1) BEGUILDED at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #6 Summer Love and #8 Moonhill Milly. Small reverse for each. 

Race 7: FIVESTAR LYNCH (#5, 10-1)

The TimeformUS pace projector and review of the running lines of the nine entrants in this field reveal a lack of early speed signed on in this 1-⅜ miles turf event. The pace projector indicates there is no early speed and majority in this field are assigned a running style of midpack or closers and this race can unfold at tepid pace for our top choice FIVESTAR LYNCH. The Richard Baltas trainee broke his maiden in his eighth career start for $62,500 claiming price on February 8 with the aid of a perfect trip. He saved ground around the first turn and the far turn behind the leader Trojan Magic who set a fast pace to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures. He tipped off the rail into the stretch and rallied to wear down the longtime leader Trojan Magic to win by a half-length. The Slade Power gelding returned from a 106-day layoff on May 24 in a race that appeared he needed the race off more than a three month layoff. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “stalked inside, angled a bit off the rail in the stretch, between horses within range deep stretch, not good enough,” in a race that saw the winner Red King returned to win Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure and eighth place finisher Posterize returned to win $32,000 claiming dirt sprint with a 85 Beyer Speed Figure. He made his second start off the layoff on the final race of the Santa Anita spring-summer meet on June 21 and ran eighth beaten seven and a half-lengths in a race that one can dismiss because the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “ran outside at the back, winding up in the turn, circling very wide, showing a mild late kick to pass a few.” He suffered very bad riding tactics as this gelding shown to sit close to the early pace and succeed and also he had a very wide journey covering 54ft more than the first through third place finishers and 38ft more than the fourth place finisher Succeedandsurpass in a race where the runner-up Lincoln City returned to win at the same class level with a 87 Beyer Speed Figure. He has returned with five workouts including his last drill where he worked in company heads up with the stakes placed sprinter Ginobli on August 2 in 48 seconds flat (Fivestar Lynch - August 2) that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave B-. Abel Cedillo takes over in the irons and with aggressive ride from the start he dictates terms on the front end without losing ground on both turns and can spring the upset to start the Saturday late Pick 5 at Del Mar.

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) FIVESTAR LYNCH at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #8 Tintoretto and #7 Cupid’s Claw. Small reverse for each.   

Race 9: BODHICITTA (#2, 6-1)

The scratch of Jodie Olimpica changed the pace scenario of this race as that filly was expected to be the pacesetter and now look for Summering from the rail post position to go straight for the early lead along with Harmless tracking or pressing the leader in second early. A mare that can be overlooked is BODHICITTA who enters this race in peak form with two wins and a second in three starts this year. Her main asset is her late kick and she displayed that in her previous win on March 8 at Santa Anita. The Showcasing filly found the rail around the first turn, angled off the rail in two path down the backstretch behind a moderate early pace, angled four wide at the top of the stretch, and delivered a big late kick to blow by the rail rally of Dogtag to win by length and a half. She completed her final quarter of a mile in 22.86 seconds and her win was flattered when Dogtag returned to win Allowance N2X and Possibly Perfect Stakes in her next two starts with 88 and 89 Beyer Speed Figures respectively. Her connections became ambitious when she returned in the Grade 1 Gamely on May 25 at Santa Anita trying to stretch her late kick to 1-⅛ miles for the first time and she ran well behind the perfect trip stalking winner Keeper of the Stars to lose by length and a quarter. In that race, she found herself towards the rear of the field behind a fast pace set by uncontested leader Giza Goddess early. She moved up one off the rail in the two path on the far turn, angled five wide at the top of the stretch, and delivered a final three-eighths in 34.56 seconds to catch second over Mucho Unusual. The chestnut filly returns from a seventy-five day layoff with seven workouts including five furlong moves with stablemate and recent Wickker Stakes winner Bob and Jackie on July 30 in 1:02.20 (Bodhicitta - July 30) where the Handicapper’s Report clocker gave it a B stating “appearing best, good work for her,” and he also gave her two previous works on this turf course a B as well. Regular rider Flavien Prat who is second in the jockey standings with seven turf wins remains in the irons and drawn well in post position two I expect her to save ground and unleash her devastating late kick to spring the minor upset. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (2) BODHICITTA at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #3 Tonahutu, #7 Beau Recall. Small reverse for each. 

Daily Double: (2) BODHICITTA with (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ  

Race 10: SUPERMAN SHAQ (#4, 7-2)

The morning line favorite that will get the majority of attention will be the $1 million Keeneland September 2019 purchase Spielberg who was the highest priced yearling from the sixty-three yearlings by his sire Union Rags. He is trained by trainer Bob Baffert who has started two debuting maidens sprinting on the main track this meet and both return winners as the favorite, Happier (July 31, 2020, $1.20-1) with 89 Beyer Speed Figure and Freedom Fighter (August 1, 2020, $0.50-1) with a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. He enters this race with the prequisite fast works with two of his four workouts over the Del Mar main track best of the morning. Two issues with this pricey yearling is the pedigree is not to win early and he has shown the lack of quick gate speed. By 11% first time out sire by the dam Miss Sequel who won three of seventeen starts and won all three starts routing on the main track and her only foal High Road won his two starts routing on an off track. Moreover, I am concerned with his ability to break fast from the gate as he was slow into stride in his half-mile spin on 46.20 on July 20 (Spielberg - July 20). Instead I am more interested and strongly feel that SUPERMAN SHAQ has the combination of win early pedigree, high price purchase, and excellent workouts to suggest this Peter Miller trainee is ready to win in his career debut. He cost $550,000 at the Ocala Spring Sale which was the highest priced two-year old from the fourteen two-year olds by Shackleford at the sale. The female family is the reason that he fetched such a high price as the dam Drumette has produced five winners from five starters with two of those winners two-year old winners. Her standout foal is Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and Breeders Cup Distaff winner Monomoy Girl who has won eleven of thirteen starts including three wins from four starts as a two-year old and Mr. Monomoy who won two of five starts including one of three starts as a two-year old. Superman Shaq enters this race with seven workouts including a visually impressive five furlong move in 1:01.60 on July 27 (Superman Shaq - July 27) where he broke fast to outbreak his workmate, waited for his mate to catch up into the turn, re-broke again to work to the five furlong pole and galloping out past it while his workmate ended the work and three-quarter pole in a work that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B- stating he “has ability, outworked an older horse and is worth following.” Trainer Peter Miller is off to fast start this meet as the leading trainer and has connected at a 50% clip (4/2-0-1) with his two-year olds making their debut in maiden special weight dirt sprints as both winners were not the favorite, What’s Up Surfer (July 12, 2020, $2.90-1) and Good with People (July 12, 2020, $3.00-1). The gate speed he shown in his July 27 work and his subsequent August 2 work that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave him a B will give him an advantage over the morning line favorite Spielberg and with the percoious win early breeding and his trainer’s fast start this meet, I expect Superman Shaq to break running and make every pole a winning one at a hint of a price in the first leg of the late Daily Double. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #3 Noble Reflection, #8 Dr. Schivel. Small reverse for each. 

Daily Double: (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ with (6) SWEET DEVIL. 

Race 11: SWEET DEVIL (#6, 5-1)

The new face in the Del Mar finale Ya Beauty I respect as she received positive Timeform Foreign comments on her runner-up effort on June 24 versus twelve horse field where she was three and three-quarter lengths in front of the rest of the field as she is “open to further improvement and is well up to winning a similar event.” The filly I will be taking a stand against is the second choice on the morning line Nurse Goodbody who has disappointed at odds of 2-1 and 8-5 in her last two starts. When she ran second beaten a length on May 24 she was part of a bunched field where the first seven horses were separated by four and a quarter lengths and last time out she was the beaten favorite where she was “struggling four-wide under a drive in the far turn, completely empty in the stretch,” according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. She is a bet against and the top preference goes back to my top selection on July 11. SWEET DEVIL has managed to finish in the money only once in three starts on the turf but each of those starts was better than it appears on paper. In her career debut, she was dismissed at 37-1 in her career debut on January 11 where she ran a respectable race to defeat more than half the field to wire despite racing greenly through the stretch rallying in traffic to lose by only four-lengths and galloped out very well after the wire to indicate additional ground should pose no problem. She stretched out to 1-⅛ miles in her next start and she ran well to finish third beaten only a half-length in a race where she lost ground around both turns and was close to early pace that saw the two leaders weaken to finish fifth and seventh. She was a little head strong early crossing the wire for the first time and was parked three wide on the first turn and into the backstretch chasing the two leaders Nu Pi Lambda and Undisturbed. She made a three wide move on the far turn to take over the lead into the stretch and refused to quit easily staying on gamely through deep stretch as the two rivals that outfinished Sweet Devil rallied from seventh and sixth after the first half-mile. After a dirt debacle on May 17 versus a key race field, she returned to turf on July 11 and lost more ground than the one-length margin of defeat would indicate. The daughter of Daredevil broke from post position eleven in an eleven horse field and was parked three wide on the first turn and stayed that wide down the backstretch, moved up three wide on the far turn and into the stretch and “battled tenaciously down the center of the track, beaten a neck for second,” according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. The Mike McCarthy trainee is drawn better this afternoon and I expect to get a ground saving trip under Juan Hernandez who has four turf wins this meet.  She has been the victim of some tough trips in her recent turf starts but if Sweet Devil gets a clean ground saving trip she can break through with her diploma in her fifth career start as my BEST BET on the card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (6) SWEET DEVIL at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #11 Ya Beauty. Small reverse for each.

Small Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #5 Noble Hearted. No reverse. 

Del Mar Pick 3 Race 9

Race 9: (2) BODHICITTA, (3) Tonahutu, (7) Beau Recall

Race 10: (3) Noble Reflection, (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ, (8) Dr. Schivel 

Race 11: (6) SWEET DEVIL, (11) Ya Beauty

Ticket 1: 2 with 3,4,8 with 6,11  = 1 x 3 x 2 x $2 = $12 

Ticket 2: 2,3,7 with 4 with 6,11  = 3 x 1 x 2 x $2 = $12 

Ticket 3: 2,3,7 with 3,4,8 with 6 = 3 x 3 x 1 x $2 = $18 

Total Wager: $42 

 

Ollie's Candy Looks to Defend Her Crown in Clement Hirsch

Race 8: OIL CAN KNIGHT (#1, 5-1) 

The morning line favorite Microrithms will be fancied in the wagering based on his trainer Bob Baffert who won Shared Belief Stakes with Thousand Words, debuting maiden winner Freedom Fighter, and Grade 1 Whitney with Improbable on Saturday. Also, this gelding won at this Allowance N1X condition already on a sloppy/sealed main track on December 6, 2018 at Los Alamitos and in his most recent win won Allowance N2X defeating two next out winners in Captain Scotty and Distinctive B who returned to earn 99 and 94 Beyer Speed Figures respectively. The two issues I have with the morning line favorite are his soundness and that Allowance N2X was flattered by pace and track condition. He will make only his sixth start as a six-year old as this is the second time he is returning off a extended layoff as he returned from a 482 day layoff on November 3, 2018 and ran second beaten a neck as the 5-2 post time favorite and today he is returning off a 549-day layoff being risked for a claiming price of $40,000 for the first time. Secondly, his latest victory where he earned a career and field’s best last race 99 Beyer Speed Figure. However, that win was flattered by sloppy/sealed main track that strongly favored inside-speed on Janaury 31, 2019 that Microrithms rode and the fractions on paper look fast but when taken into account the track variant those fractions were moderate per the Moss Pace Figures (-1,-1) and were very slow to earn blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. I will look for a horse with recency and landed on OIL CAN KNIGHT who since being claimed for $25,000 by trainer Steve Knapp has sprinted on a fast main track three times with two wins. Although his previous win on a fast main track at today’s distance on May 15 saw the first seven finishers seperated by only four and a quarter lengths at the wire, he showed a lot of determination fending off more than one challenge in what returned to be a “key” race. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran 4-wide on the front, pushing forward 3-wide to take the lead midturn, failing to achieve any margin, trading punches, digging deep to fend off stubborn foes to the wire.” The runner-up, Kneedeepinsnow, returned to duplicate his 90 Beyer Speed Figure winning his next start and third-place finisher Galilean returned to win his next two starts with Beyer Speed Figures of 90 and 93 in the process. His most recent start where he was virtually eased through the stretch beaten sixty-four and half lengths one can dismiss as the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “his race was compromised by the bad start, and makes today a complete throwout.” He returned with three workouts including a five furlong move in 1:01.1 on July 19 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B commented “Improved drill going home with energy while holding a shorter working All Star Heat at bay, galloping well past the wire for the Knapp barn. Sure looks better than last.” He returns for the optional $40,000 claiming price at a condition he won two starts back but he remains above his original claiming price which is a positive sign. From the rail with hustling rider Edwin Maldonado returning in the irons I expect him to be one of the leaders in the first quarter of a mile and if he shows the same determination he flashed in that May 15 win he will be a tough rival to run down. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (1) OIL CAN KNIGHT at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #7 Drop the Chalupa. Small reverse. 

Daily Double: #1, #7 with #2 Savvy Gal 

Race 9: SAVVY GAL (#2, 8-1)

The morning line favorite Colombian Gold drops to a restricted three-year old $40,000 claiming event today after finishing tenth and last in Allowance N1X on opening weekend. Despite the class drop, this Dialed In filly broke her maiden in her seventh career start on June 7 at Santa Anita where she defeated a below average $62,500 maiden claiming field and did so with a perfect ride by Flavien Prat and an ideal pace scenario. She sat off the pacesetter Constantia through the first six furlongs through moderate fractions, disposed of that rival at the top of the stretch, and kicked clear, earning a career best 75 Beyer and 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That field was subpar as nine horses behind her returned and it produced one winner, one runner-up, two third-place finishes, and five off the board finishes. She will not find that race shape this afternoon as the expected leader handled a fast pace speed duel in her comeback performance off the layoff and will be fitter in her second race into her form cycle over a turf course she loves. SAVVY GAL returns to Del Mar where she broke her maiden in her career debut at this distance as a two-year-old and ran second behind the Grade 2 placed Guitty in her last start over the Del Mar turf course. The daughter of Street Sense appeared to be off form when she finished last beaten fifteen and three-quarter lengths in her third start of this year but that last place finish was the result of her chasing the gate to wire winner Parkour who established very fast fractions to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures in the process. With her history of running well here at Del Mar, she returned eighty-two day layoff on June 12 where she recorded only two workouts leading up to that race a three furlong and a half mile workout and she figured to not be one hundred percent for her return race and yet to ran very well in defeat to win the early pace battle through fast fractions that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and setup for the off the pace runners as first three finishers rallied from sixth, fourth, and fifth after the first half-mile. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she was “sent to lead, came under pressure into and around the first turn and onto the backside, dueled nearing the half-mile pole, put away that rival to shake clear early on the far turn, collared again in the stretch, outrun midstretch, weakened badly. She likely needed this race and could do better in a less pace-filled race.” She drops another class level to $40,000 today and with that comeback race under her belt and with four workouts since that return effort, SAVVY GAL should be fitter in her second race off the layoff. Moreover, the pace scenario will suit her front running style as she is the leader in TimeformUS early pace rating by fourteen points over her next speed rival, the overmatched Dont’s Stop Looking. With Humberto Figueroa returning in the saddle, she should easily make the lead into the first turn and prove tough to catch for trainer Richard Baltas.

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (2) SAVVY GAL at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #6 Breakfast Ball, #7 Lady Noguez, and #9 Too Much Heaven. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #2 with #5 Ollie’s Candy 

Race 10: OLLIE’S CANDY (#5, 5-2)

The morning line favorite, Hard Not to Love, will look for her first win around two turns in this prestigious Grade 1 event as she has run behind Ce Ce in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile and rallied to be second in the Grade 2 Santa Maria behind Fighting Mad. The issue with this daughter of Hard Spun is her pre race antics in the afternoon and if she is better filly around one turn versus two. In the Santa Maria she was “very difficult and unwilling in the warm-up,” according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes delaying the start for several minutes and this wasted energy resulted in her trailing the field badly behind the gate to wire winner Fighting Mad and rallied to be second when the others in that five-horse field were tired into the stretch such as Ce Ce. Moreover, outside of her third-place finish in the Angel Flight Stakes in her third career start, Hard Not to Love is five for six at distances from six to seven furlongs and this John Shirreffs trainee is better suited to one turn vs two. Plus she has disappointed and appeared on the “dullish” side according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington in her last two workouts for the Clement Hirsch and she is a complete throw out for me. I have always had an affinity for OLLIE’S CANDY ever since she was trained by William Morey Jr. and the five year old is better than ever even though she has failed to visit the winner’s circle in three starts this year. The daughter of Candy Ride made her five-year-old debut off a 133-day layoff in the Grade 1 Beholder and ran evenly to finish a clear third where she needed this race off the break. She shipped to Arkansas for the Grade 1 Apple Blossom on April 18 and she ran a winning race in defeat winning a hard fought speed duel through blazing fractions that earned off the chart Moss Pace Figures (+23,+15) and red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She shook loose from her three main speed and pace rivals, Serengeti Empress, Cookie Dough, and Come Dancing as those rivals crossed the wire and finished eleventh, fourteenth, and twelfth. The John Sadler trainee opened up a two and half length lead past mid-stretch and it required the entire length of the stretch for the perfect trip winner Ce Ce to run her down winning by a head. The 98 Beyer Speed Figure the Apple Blossom earned does not do justice for Ollie’s Candy but TimeformUS Speed Figure does as this dark bay filly earned a 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure while the winner Ce Ce earned a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She was scratched from the Grade 1 Gamely at mile and an eighth on the turf for the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps on the main track at Belmont Park where she dueled the pacesetter Blamed into defeat, opened up another two and half length lead past mid-stretch and was only caught in the final sixteenth of a mile by She’s A Julie and Point of Honor as those two rallied from fourth and fifth after the first half mile. She returns to Del Mar where she won this race last year and has looked fantastic in the mornings preparing for this event with a 59.4 move on July 26 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B+ stating “Big drill running down Rowangoeshollywood (Marquez) and Cryin' Chuck (Sadler) in 35.2, 59.3 guided out in 112.0. Big spin over the track.” She can lead or sit just off Fighting Mad whose most recent victory in the Santa Maria was earned under ideal circumstances loose on the lead quick fractions per Moss Pace Figures (+4,+3) but she had an intense inside-speed bias in her favor. If Ollie’s Candy can repeat any of her last two starts she will defend her title in the Clement Hirsch as my BEST BET on the card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) OLLIE’S CANDY at 9-5 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #2 Ce Ce. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #5 with #2 Tallien, #5 Juror and #8 Hollywoodhelraiser. 

Race 11: JUROR (#5, 4-1)

The morning line favorite War Path enters this race with the best recent race at this distance finishing second beaten a head on June 19 behind the perfect trip winner Tiberius Mercurius but question marks surround that field that makes me leery of War Path being a legitimate morning line favorite to back. The race saw the first four finishers seperated by only one-length at the wire and the below par 80 Beyer Speed Figure matched the visual impression of that event. The subsequent performances of the horses of that June 19 event prove it was a subpar race as it produced three second-place finishes, two third-place finishes, and one off the board effort. Instead, I will look for a new face that is eligible for the Del Mar “Ship and Win” program and JUROR fits the profile. He made his career debut on June 1 for owner and breeder Juddmonte Farms for trainer Chad Brown and this colt was always destined to adore routing on the turf. He is a half sister to Assembly who won two of seven starts routing on the turf with a career best 80 Beyer Speed Figure and he is a full brother to Seismic Wave who is Graded Stakes placed and has won three of thirteen starts routing on the turf with a career best 98 Beyer Speed Figure. The bay colt enjoyed a relatively clean journey in his June 1 debut as he saved ground around the first turn and down the backstretch racing in midpack behind a two-horse speed duel early. He angled off the rail around the far turn in the two path, was three to four wide at the top of the stretch, and put in a decent rally to be a non-threatening second behind the experienced winner Felix the Fox who broke his maiden in his thirteenth career start. Although that race has failed to produce any subsequent winners as four entrants that returned including the winner finish off the board in their next start, Juror can improve with more experience under his belt in the same fashion that his full brother Sesmic Wave has. He will make his first start for trainer Richard Baltas through private purchase with four workouts over the Del Mar main track that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B for two of those workouts including his most recent where he completed his “last 1/4 mile in 24.1 kicking on well for the Baltas barn. Some athleticism here.” Abel Cedillo rides for the first time and in a field that lacks a clear standout this well bred son of Tapit looks to take advantage of that in his first start for his connections. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (5) JUROR at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 Juror with #2 Tallien, #8 Hollywoodhellraiser. Small reverse for each. 

Del Mar Race 8 Pick 4: 

Race 8: (1) Oil Can Knight and (7) Drop the Chalupa

Race 9: (2) SAVVY GAL

Race 10: (5) OLLIE’S CANDY

Race 11: (2) Tallien, (5) Juror, and (8) Hollywoodhellraiser.

Main Ticket: 1,7 with 2 with 5 with 2,5,8 = 2 x 1 x 1 x 3 x $2 = $12

No other plays.  

Neptune's Storm Looks to Shake Loose in the Eddie Read

Race 7: POSTERIZE (#4, 8-1)

Although the TimeformUS pace projector does not have a blue coding to indicate the race shape will favor horses on or near the front end, this open $32,000 claiming sprint does not have a lot of early speed signed on. The clear pacesetter will be I’m Busy making his first start off the claim for Mark Glatt off five and half length victory versus the $20,000 claiming company at Churchill Downs where the horses entered have not won three races. He enjoyed ideal conditions in that race as he was loose on an uncontested early lead through slow early fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (-4,-3) and kicked clear earning a career best 82 and 105 Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure respectively. He will have a pace rival to deal in POSTERIZE who is twice the price on the morning line and has shown the ability to handle pace pressure in the past. The Ian Kruljac trainee is clearly at home at today’s six furlong distance with a record of 6/2-2-0 while she is 11/1-1-2 at other distances. The son of Shackleford most recent two dirt sprints resulted in a win and a second-place finish and that latter performance showed she can take on pace pressure and run a winning effort in defeat. In that race February 16 effort, POSTERIZE was parked four wide in a four-horse battle for the early lead through a 22.09 second opening quarter and continued three wide on the far turn through 45.19 second half mmile. He was able to shake loose from those three pace rivals to opened up length and half lead at mid-stretch only to be run down by the opportunistic stalking winner Tigre Di Slugo to finish second beaten two and quarter lengths to earn a then career best 82 and 107 Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure respectively. His three pace rivals tired to finish fourth, eighth, and tenth as he won the early pace battle but lost the war in a “key” race that saw the third-and-sixth place finishers returned to win. After a failed dirt route and then finishing last in a one-mile turf event, he turned back to six furlongs on June 20 and took advantage of a paceless sprint to score the minor upset. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “went to the lead, set a controlled tempo under pressure, in deep water past the quarter-pole, kicked away at the head of the lane, shifted about, held sway to the wire,” earning a career best 85 Beyer Speed Figure that equals the par for this class level. He exits an eleventh and last place finish on opening weekend where she flashed speed to chase the very fast early pace set by King Eddie in a one-mile turf route who earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and tired to finish last. The turf-to-dirt and route-to-sprint move has proven accurate for Ian Kruljac barn who has won at gaudy 67% (6/4-1-0) in the past five years and none of those four winners went off favored. He finds a field once again not loaded with plethora of early speed as I’m Busy is his only real pace rival and he has drawn the rail. Regular pilot Giovanni Franco should enjoy a pace pressing trip in the clear and if he can duplicate any of his previous two dirt sprints in today’s race he should be a tough rival to run down in the start of today’s late Pick 5. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (4) POSTERIZE at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: 4-1, 4-2. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #4 Postertize with #1 Bowie’s Hero, #6 Neptune’s Storm 

Pick 3 part-wheel: #4 Postertize with #1 Bowie’s Hero, #6 Neptune’s Storm with #8 Adare

Race 8: NEPTUNE’S STORM (#6, 6-1)

The morning line favorite United should be respected as he comes into this race with consecutive victories in the Grade 2 San Marcos and Charles Whittingham. The runner-up to last year’s horse of the year, Bricks and Mortor, might today’s conditions not be ideal for him. Firstly is the distance as he turns back to a mile and an eighth and two of his four wins on the turf have been at mile and a quarter with his two narrow defeats at mile and a half. Secondly, he finds a field that lacks quality early speed to set up for his late kick. Although he has never won in three wins over the Del Mar turf course, NEPTUNE’S STORM will enjoy a decided pace advantage over his field this afternoon as he is the field’s confirmed pacesetter according to TimeformUS pace projector in a field filled with horses that do their best running from midpack or towards the rear of the field. He made his first start off a 149-day layoff in ambitious spot the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile on May 25 where he tired to finish seventh in a race where the early speed among Voodoo Song, Neptune’s Storm, Blitzkrieg, and War of Will set or chased an insanely fast early pace that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures that resulted in a pace collapsed where the first three finishers rallied from eighth, tenth, and sixth after the first half-mile. The form of the fast pace was flattered when War of Will returned to win Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure and Blitzkrieg found a paceless field and won Grade 3 American Handicap with a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. The son of Stormy Atlantic shipped to Golden Gate for the Grade 3 San Francisco Turf Mile and paralyed perfect pace scenario and trip to win by a head over a very game Kiwi’s Dream. In that race, he sat just off the latter for the entire race as those two crawled through slow early fractions earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He poked his head in front at mid-stretch and had to fight all the way to the wire as Kiwi’s Dream refused to yield easily winning by a head in a race that saw the first three finishers run second, first, and third after the first half mile. The form of this race was flattered when Kiwi’s Dream returned to run second in the Wickker Stakes on opening weekend earning 96 Beyer Speed Figure but earned a 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure because he disputed a very fast pace and ran second in that aforementioned race.  The Richard Baltas trainee makes his third race into his form cycle and comes into this race with four works including half-mile spin with stablemate Applecross on July 19 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “much the best inside Applecross in 24.1, 47.4 (23.3 LQ). Fires big right back.” Jockey Drayden Van Dyke who rode Neptune’s Storm to two victories and a second in three starts is reunited in the saddle and this bay gelding will be ultra tough to run down if given the trip that TimeformUS pace projector and on paper he figures to get and that is uncontested trip on the front end. Come catch him. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (6) NEPTUNE’S STORM at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: 6-1. Small reverse. 

Small Exacta: 6-2. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #1 Bowie’s Hero, #6 Neptune’s Storm with #8 Adare

Race 9: ADARE (#8, 12-1)

The horse that exits the best last race is the morning line favorite Frair’s Road who crossed the wire sixth in a seven horse field the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby won by Honor A.P. (102 Beyer Speed Figure) and the form of that race was flattered when the second place finisher Authentic returned to win Grade 1 Haskell with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. The issue with Frair’s Road is before that debacle, this son of Quality Road is developing a case of being bridesmaid with consecutive runner-up efforts and one with excuse on May 2 where he ran into traffic issues for more than a half-mile before being extricated out of that trouble at the top of the stretch and rallied to be second behind opportunistic closing winner Hunt the Front. Instead I will look for a horse that projects to improve with more ground and also exits a fast race. ADARE finished third in his career debut behind the very fast Vertical Threat who improved to two for two in dirt sprints when he captured Smiling Tiger Stakes on July 25 with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure (three point improvement). Adare was sent off as the co longest shot on the toteboard at 30-1 because his trainer Neil Drysdale does not do well with debuting maidens in dirt sprints having won at 5% clip (19/1-1-2) in the past five years and watching the video replay of this colt’s seven furlong workout on June 8 on XBTV (Adare - June 8) he is long bodied and long striding son of Medaglia D’Oro that will appreciate route of ground. Despite his confirmation and his trainer’s poor statistics with first time starters, Adare actually outran his 30-1 odds to finish third in this much better than looked performance. He was bounced around at the start by the two Bob Baffert trainees Holden the Lute and Happy Hepo that resulted in him trailing the field down the backstretch racing on the rail early. The dark bay colt continued on the inside into the far turn where he made a nice run to get into contention then swung out four wide at the top of the stretch and delivered a good rally to the wire despite drifting inwards and galloped out with the winner Vertical Threat past the wire. This race served nothing more than a schooling run by trainer Neil Drysdale to stretch him to two turns which he gets to do today and he is half brother to Ocean Knight who won three of nine starts routing on the main track with a career best 97 Beyer Speed Figure. He has come back with three works including a six furlong move in 1:15 ⅕ on July 16 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+ stating “Giant sort looks like a nice sort breezing to the top under wraps then came to the line like a good thing off the rail while under some wraps. There is upside here.” Jockey Edwin Maldonado remains in the irons and at juicy 12-1 on the morning line he is the best value bet on today’s card at Del Mar. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (8) ADARE at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: 8-3, 8-6. No reverse. 

Small Exacta part-wheel: 8-10. No reverse.