Race 7: OVER ATTRACTED (#4, 6-1)
Three of the eight entrants exit the Allowance N1X race won by Moonhill Milly on August 8 and I am playing against those three in this event. The field in that race was bunched at the wire with the first six finishers seperated by only one length at the wire. The morning line favorite Croughavouke also exits the Grade 2 San Clemente but she is a filly that has ideal race cirumstances in her last two starts where she had a fast pace to set up her late rally and she has fallen short. TimeformUS pace projector predicts this race will unfold to favor horses on or near the early lead and that situation will help OVER ATTRACTED in her third start in North America and for Carla Gaines barn. She was dismissed as the longest shot on the board at 13-1 in her North America debut on June 12 and could not get by the winner Shines Her Light who got first run and this daughter of Atredies finished two lengths in front of Harvest Moon who won her next three starts including Grade 3 Torrey Pines last Saturday with a career best 90 Beyer Speed Figure. That race gave her connections to enter her next in the Grade 2 San Clemente on July 25 and she ran eighth beaten 5-¼ lengths where visually she did not have a real excuse. She was able to save ground into the first turn and down the backstretch as the pacesetter Cheermeister set a fast pace to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures, she moved up closer to loom outside of rivals three to four wide at the top of the stretch, and flattened out through the lane to be eighth. Today she finds a field where she is projected to be close to the expected leader, Big Sweep, in second or third early in a race that is not loaded with the plethora of early speed that she found last time out. In addition she has returned three works including her penultimate work on August 18 in a bullet 59 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B+ stating she “took off at the 4f pole going easily to the top in 24.3 then flew home in 47.1 (22.3) breezing out to the 7f pole in 59.2. Stepping way up out of last.” In a race where the favorites look vulnerable this race looks ripe for fresh faces that should benefit from the expected race flow.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (4) OVER ATTRACTED to WIN at 7-2 or higher.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #5 Big Sweep. Small reverse.
Daily Double part-wheel: (4) OVER ATTRACTED, (5) BIG SWEEP with (7) DESERT LAW.
Race 8: DESERT LAW (#7, 6-1)
He is making his third start following a 322 day layoff and DESERT LAW is slowly rounding into form even though he has managed to hit the board only once in his two starts and exits an eighth place finish beaten 10-½ lengths in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby. Despite not visiting the winner's circle in two starts, each start was better than his finish position would indicate as he affected race dynamics in each start. The Desert Code gelding returned from a 322 day layoff in the restricted Thor’s Echo Stakes on June 22 and he picked up the pieces for third behind his stable mate Tiger Dad. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, Desert Law “stalked inside, could not keep up and fell back to last past the half-mile pole, fell further back around the far turn, came out into the stretch, passed a couple of horses late for the show, drifting out badly on the gallop out. He might have needed this, but this was not a good effort.” He needed this race off the layoff but he was also compromised by a slow pace as his stablemate, Tiger Dad, was able to press a very slow early pace according to the Moss Pace Figures (-8,-2) and earned a blue coded TimeformUS pace figure in the process. This third place finish was nothing more than a prep for the Grade 1 Bing Crosby as he ran second in that event last year and he was bet down to the fourth choice in this year’s event where he finished last in a eight horse field but this finish position was the result of a kamikaze speed duel that set up perfectly for the first two finishers who rallied from seventh and eighth after the first quarter of a mile. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, Desert Law found himself dueling “2-wide on the lead, faltering by the ¼ pole, quickly retreating from the fight.” He was part of a five horse speed duel that battled through above average fractions earning Moss Pace Figures (+13,+8) and earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures in the process with the third and fourth place finisher deserve credit for staying to the wire as they were part of that brutal pace. The Desert Code gelding is making his third race into his form cycle and is drawn beautifully towards the outside of his two main pace rivals in Microrithms and McKale who both are trained by Bob Baffert and are up for the $80,000 optional claiming price. He comes into this race with two works including a visually impressive half mile spin in 47 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B+ stating “big with Tiger Dad matching strides in 22.3, 47.0. Could not separate them here.” Juan Hernandez takes over in the irons and he has tactical speed to get a forwardly placed trip and this five-time winner should appreciate the drop in class into this Allowance N3X.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (7) DESERT LAW at 7-2 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #7 with #6 Tiger Law. Small reverse.
Daily Double part-wheel: (7) DESERT LAW with (10) KAZAN
Race 9: KAZAN (#10, 12-1)
The old adage horse for course and even distance specialist is true for our top choice in this Allowance N2X, KAZAN. The five year old Shanghai Bobby gelding has raced on the Del Mar turf course nine times with seven in the money finishes with six of them in the top two and half of those six wins were at today’s 1-1/16 distance on this course. As a three-year old, he broke his maiden, won an Allowance N1X, and then ran second at 50-1 in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby in three starts at the 2018 Del Mar meet. He is making his third race following 84 day layoff and he appears primed for another winning performance over his favorite turf course as his two races off the layoff are better than the previous one. In his first start off the layoff, Kazan did not get the smoothest of trips finishing sixth in a “key” race field on May 22 at Santa Anita. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “settled at the tail of the field, labored under a drive heading into the far turn, bid into contention at the head of the lane, rallied into traffic, angled out repeatedly, one-paced when clear.” This was above average field as the winner and eighth place finishers returned to win earning Beyer Speed Figures of 87 and 93 respectively. He returned to his favorite turf couse at Del Mar almost two months later and scored the victory at 1-1 favorite despite a slow pace set by Big Buzz. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the dark bay or brown gelding “trailed early on, passed the back markers inside midway down the backstretch, behind horses with run leaving the far turn to midstretch, angled out near midstretch, finished best to hit the front late, inched away the final strides.” He covered his final 5/16ths in a field best 29.17 seconds and did so despite Big Buzz setting a slow pace earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figure in the process. He will make his first start off the claim for Javier Sierra a barn that has only one winner this meet but he protects Kazan in a spot where he cannot be claim, a positive sign and National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave positive comment about his six furlong move in 1:12.4 on August 16 stating “big step up but looked willing for new barn going 24.2, 112.4 while just pointed in the right direction late.” The trainer and jockey team combined on Friday with 11-1 upset winner East Rand going 1-1/16 miles on the turf from post ten in an eleven horse field and they can complete a double with this course and distance specialist at a generous price.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (10) KAZAN at 6-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #1 Gregorian Chant, #9 Border Town. Small reverse.
Daily Double part-wheel: (10) KAZAN with (1) LAW ABIDING CITIZEN.
Race 10: LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN (#1, 5-1)
As mentioned in my eighth race analysis, I upgraded the efforts of the third and fourth place finishers of the Grade 1 Bing Crosby on August 1 because of the kamikaze early fractions that battled through. LAW ABINDIN CITIZEN and his pace rival Wildman Jack are the two horses that held on very well through this fast fractions as the first two finishers Collusion Illusion and Lexitonian rallied from seventh and eighth. This Twirling Candy gelding stretches out an additional eighth of a mile to seven furlongs and finds a field that does not contain any of the early speed he found in his last start. The Mark Glatt trainee last visited the winner’s circle on June 14 where he found a field that lacked early speed to emerge victorious. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “showed pace, feeling token pressure through the opening ¼ mile, shaking his pace rival in the turn, never letting the fresh challenger get on his level, working to the wire to keep clear.” This was aided by a very slow early pace as the first three finishers ran first, second, and third at each call earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-20,-4) and earning a blue coded TimeformUS pace figure in the process. Based on this slow pace win and running second prompting a moderate pace behind Ax Man in a one mile route on May 16, I thought he was an outsider in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby on August 1 and he proved me wrong with his game third place finish. In that race, he was hustled along to be on the lead battling four wide in a five horse speed duel through a 21.58 second opening quarter and continued in this intense battle three wide approaching the quarter pole through a 44.73 second half mile and was headed by Wildman Jack into the eighth pole but he battled back gamely to take over the lead only to be collared by the opportunistic closers Collision Illusion and Lexitonian who clearly benefited from this hot pace. The pace figure information can be found in the eighth race analysis and Law Abindin Citizen ran the best race in the Bing Crosby along with Wildman Jack. He returns in 28 days later and is the clear leader based on the TimeformUS pace projector in a scenario that faovrs horses on or near the lead and has held his form with an easy five furlong maintenance move on August 22 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “finishing within self for the Glatt barn.” Jockey Abel Cedillio remains in the irons and the strategy is simple: go to the front and increase your lead to the wire.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (1) LAW ABIDING CITIZEN at 2-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #5 C.Z. Rocket. Small reverse.
Del Mar Pick 3 Race 8:
Race 8: (6) Tiger Law, (7) DESERT LAW
Race 9: (1) Gregorian Chant, (9) Border Town, (10) KAZAN
Race 10: (1) LAW ABIDING CITIZEN, (5) C.Z Rocket
Ticket 1: 7 with 1,9,10 with 1,5 = 1 x 3 x 2 x $1 = $6
Ticket 2: 6,7 with 10 with 1,5 = 2 x 1 x 2 x $1 = $4
Ticket 3: 6,7 with 1,9,10 with 1 = 2 x 3 x 1 x $1 = $6
Total Wager: $16
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