Race 5: STARSHIP CHEWBACA (#2, 8-1)
Going into his career debut, there are reasons to understand why STARSHIP CHEWBACA was sent off at $114.30-1 in his first start on July 24 at Del Mar. He is trained by Howard Zucker who was winless in seven starts with first time starters making their debut in maiden claiming dirt sprints in the past five years. His pedigree is just ordinary out of the Danzig stallion U.S. Ranger who was Group 1 placed in the Darley July Cup and Prix de la Foret as a four year old and as stallion has produced 11% winners. She is by the dam Visual Threat who has produced seven starters with four winners including Visual Intensity (5-for-15) and Native Treasure (10-for-52). He was training towards his debut in below average fashion as National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented about his five furlong move in 1:01 ⅘ on July 15 with the comment “struggled under pressure while asked out in 35.4, 48.3, 101.4 Dullsville.” With all these factors a handicapper can throw out this gelding chances in his first start and when the dust settled Starship Chewbaca ran a very good race in defeat to finish fourth earning respectable 64 Beyer Speed Figure where with any improvement in his second career start could see him challenging for the win in this average $50,000 maiden claiming event where the horses dropping from maiden special weight to this class level for the first time do not scare anyone. According to the Handicapper’s Trip Notes, he was “smacked hard at the start, fighting between foes for the front, driving hard from the turn, fighting on in the stretch for 3rd, yielding late.” The early pace he challenged in that debut was a respectable one that was close to par for this class level and he defeated more than half the field to the wire in a race where he missed third by less than a length. This was a good effort by the longest shot on the tote board and he can “definetly move forward in a barn not known for their early success,” suggested by the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. He has returned with four workouts over Del Mar maintrack and none caught National Turf’s Andy Harrington attention including his penultimate move on August 21 a half mile spin in 51 flat that he gave a C commenting “Struggled home in 24.3, 51.3 running uphill under some coaxing. Nothing of note.” In this case, I am going to dismiss all the workout information because of what this bay gelding showed in his only start. Hustling rider Agapito Delgadillo gets in the irons for the first time and he along with eight start trial maiden Endless Tale are the main early speed in this field and he should be right on top of the pace and as mentioned before with any improvement can land him in the winner’s circle to close out the early Pick 5 at a generous price as the both morning line favorites are just ordinary.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (2) STARSHIP CHEWBACA at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #6 Colt Fiction, #9 Hollywood’s Best. Small reverse for each.
Race 8: AIR JOCKEY (#12, 12-1)
The two morning line favorites are ones I look to beat on the win end but their bridesmaid statuses make them ideal candidates to use in the second slot of the exacta. The morning line favorite Poise to Strike has run second in his last three starts and last time was in a ideal spot stalking two horse speed duel between Endless Tale and today’s rival U.S. Danger but when the real running began at the top of the stretch he offered no punch getting past by eventual winner Bedrock who rallied from fifth and barely held second over the pace rival Endless Tale. The second choice Most Sandisfactory exits a fifth place finish sprinting on the turf versus open maiden special weight and returns to maiden claiming company where he has finished second in four fast main track events. Instead I am going to prefer a horse that has had only one race for a maiden claiming tag in his career AIR JOCKEY showed signs of ability in his first two starts finishing third and then went off form in his last two starts as a four year old. He returned from a 203 day layoff as a five year old on May 5, 2019 in a one mile turf event and he finished tenth and last in a race I will draw a line through because of distance and surface did not suit him plus the extended break would suggest he was going to need a race. The son of Cyclotron returned off a 448 day layoff and dropped for a claiming tag for the first time on July 26 in a dirt sprint and finished sixth splitting the field beaten nine lengths won by Big Cheddar who earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure that is above par for this class level and indicates this was a better than average $20,000 claiming race (67 Beyer par). According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “worked to midfield along the inside, kept moving forward past the half-mile pole, raced into traffic, in a bit tight between horses, tapped on the brakes, failed to re-engage when clear, ran in place to the wire.” Not only was Air Jockey was going to need this race off more than a year layoff but he was attempting to stalk and pounce over a main track that featured a strong outside/speed bias and this gelding was stuck on the slower inside part of the main track attempting to rally behind a slow early pace won by the pace pressing winner. The Karen Headley trainee now makes his second start off the long layoff and goes from the rail to the outermost post position eleven in an eleven horse field with the addition of blinkers for the first time. He has returned with three workouts including a visually impressive five furlong move in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+ stating “Best drill to date breezing late after showing speed in 100.1. Big move in here.” Ruben Fuentes remains in the irons and with his outside draw and new blinkers I expect an improved effort that is good enough to spring the upset to start the late Pick 4.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (12) AIR JOCKEY at 6-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #12 with #3 Poise to Strike, #6 Most Sandisfactory. No reverse.
Daily Double part-wheel: (12) AIR JOCKEY with (5) SILARDI, (6) BRICKYARD RIDE, (8) THANKS MR. EIDSON.
Race 9: SILARDI (#5, 12-1)
The tepid morning line favorite, Devil Made Me Do It, returns off a 246 day layoff where he broke his maiden on opening day of the winter Santa Anita meet under ideal circumstances versus a sub-par field. He established a pressured early pace through slow fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures (-6,0) and kicked away in a race where the slow early pace resulted in the first four finishers ran first, second, third, and fourth at every call and the five horses that returned from that race are a combined 15/0-1-3 since that race. The second choice and the most likely pacesetter Brickyard Ride is one of the fastest horses on this circuit as he set a kamikaze early pace as the beaten favorite on July 31, led to the eighth pole, and was collared by the off the pace runners in a race that saw the first two finishers rally from eighth and third early. He will face pace pressure or run faster than normal with Devil Made Me Do It and Cruel Intentions in this field. The horse that can get an ideal stalk and pounce trip and is competitive on speed figures is SILARDI who exits a last place finish on August 2 but I can find excuses for his last two starts. In that aforementioned start he lost all chance when he fell to his knees at the start behind the impressive gate to wire Microrithms who returned to win again on August 29. On opening day he flashed speed to set a pressured pace in the one-mile Oceanside Stakes on turf and weakened badly to finish ninth at a distance that did not suit him. He is a turf sprinting specialist as he is undefeated in two starts sprinting on the turf including his maiden win on May 23 where he defeated five next out winners including sixth place finisher Vertical Threat who recently won the Smiling Tiger Stakes and will run next in the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby undercard. He faced winners for the first time at this class level on June 20 and emerged victorious earning 86 Beyer Speed Figure that matches Brickyard Ride’s speed figure on that same card. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “stalked the pace three-deep, loomed boldly four-wide past the quarter-pole, laid in repeatedly to midstretch, changed leads, dove late, up in time.” This was not a strong race as it produced one runner-up effort and five off the board finishes but he showed the ability to sit off the pace and finish and that style will be on display in this field with Brickyard Ride the field’s pacesetter. He returns to the class level of that victory but is in for the $40,000 claiming price and is reunited with Ruben Fuentas who was aboard for that ninth place finish on opening day but that was around two turns and this is a sprint and in the past year he has connected at 29% (7-for-24) with trainer Peter Miller. The bay gelding by City Zip should tucked into a perfect stalking trip in third and produce a late kick similar to his June 20 victory at a generous price.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (5) SILARDI at 8-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #6 Brickyard Ride, #8 Thanks Mr. Eidson. Small reverse for each.
Race 11: DISAPPEARING ACT (#8, 8-1)
I have two strong notes in the finale and it concerns horses that exit the July 11 and August 8 turf maiden events. The note for both fields is to throw out the horses exiting those events. In the July 11 turf route won by Resarcio the first seven horses were separated by only four lengths at the wire and from the eight horses that returned it has produced one runner-up effort and seven off the board finishes. That will eliminate two of the entrants in this field, Vegas Palm and Nurse Goodbody. Six of the entrants in today’s field exit the August 8 maiden race won by Noble Hearted where the first nine horses were separated by only three lengths at the wire and visual impression was matched by the below average 70 Beyer Speed Figure (Beyer par 76). That race has produced one winner and one runner-up effort from three starters to run back but those two horses shipped to Golden Gate and the one winner earned a 66 Beyer Speed Figure (five point improvement) in her maiden victory. I wanted a fresh face and landed on DISAPPEARING ACT who makes her first start off a 309 day layoff and is bred to adore routing on the turf being by Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Magician. She made her career debut on September 1 sprinting on the turf at Woodbine where she was not quick from the gate and settled in the two path between rivals down the backstretch, remained in the same spot around the far turn behind rivals, angled four wide at mid-stretch, and closed well under her own power behind the loose on the lead winner Egyptian Nights who set a slow pace earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures and defeated two next out winners in Cool Shadows and Roman D’Oro who earned Beyer Speed Figures of 68 (four point improvement) and 67 (ten point improvement) respectively. She was bet down to the 4-5 favorite in her first start on the Poly Track on October 26 and did not have the cleanest of trips being forced to race wide throughout and chased a fast pace set by the eventual runner up and next out winner Mustn’t Grumble and weakened to ninth defeating one horse to the wire. I am going to draw a line through that race because of the trip and surface. She will make her first start for trainer Richard Baltas off a layoff of 309 days and this barn is proficient with returnees going long on the turf. Bob and Jackie (July 11, 2020, $8.20-1), Desert Stone (January 4, 2020, $7.10-1), Shadow Sphinx (June 20, 2020, $1.80-1), and Peace Pipe (June 19, 2020, $17.00-1) all returned from layoffs between 196 to 510 days and won off the long layoff a pattern that Disappearing Act will attempt to follow. She has recorded nine workouts from June 23 at San Luis Rey Downs and gets top rider Abel Cedillo in the irons. At a price for a trainer that does well with turf comebackers, bred for the trip, and a fresh face in a field where the ones that have run are below average, Disappearing Act can score the upset in the finale.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (8) DISAPPEARING ACT at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #6 Acoustic Shadow, #11 Awesome Ella. Small reverse for each.
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