Race 2: DISCO BALL (#3, 4-1)
The morning line favorite is the first time starter Seiche from the always dangerous Bob Baffert barn who at this meet is 3/2-1-0 with debuting maidens in a dirt sprint and that lone defeat was Spielberg (August 8, 2020, 4-5). The son of Super Saver enters with the prerequisite fast workouts for his career debut with Handicapper’s Report giving him high praise with grade of B in two of his last three workouts including his on August 10 where he went five furlongs in 59.4 where the Handicapper’s Report clocker stated “a good work for the $230K Super Saver gelding, we are just not sure if he went further than this.” From a pedigree standpoint, there is little evidence that Seiche will be precious. His sire is only 9% with first time starters and the dam Roberta Turner has produced only one starter who split the field in his only start. Instead, I will go with experience in DISCO BALL who has finished in the money in his two starts and each start is better than the last. In his career debut last summer here at Del Mar, he was bet down to the 5-2 second choice in the field and he flashed high early speed to duel inside with the favorite Broon as those two opened up a three-length lead on their nearest rival into the turn, he battled back at the top of the stretch to gain the lead and fought on gamely towards the wire to hold the lead only to be run down by a pair of opportunistic stalkers that rallied from third and fourth after the first quarter of a mile to finish third beaten only a half-length winning the early battle for the lead but lost the war. The son of Orb was not seen for the rest of 2019 and he returned from a 342-day layoff on June 27 at Los Alamitos where he was bet down to the 7-5 post time favorite with a series of B or B+ for his return according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker and he disappointed to run second but he did not have the cleanest of starts and ran into impressive winner in a highly rated maiden event (89 Beyer Speed Figure). He threw his head at the start to be away one length slow at the start, parked four wide down the backstretch, made a three wide run on the far turn under a drive and into the stretch, and finished up under his own energy to be a clear second. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner Vertical Threat came back to win the Smiling Tiger Stakes with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. The bay colt has come back with five workouts with two of them graded as B by the Handicapper’s Report clocker including a best of fifty half mile spin on August 10 in 46.4 that HR clocker commented “wore blinkers (new) for this fast half-mile move, opening 1/4 in 23.3, not asked at all in the stretch, finishing full of run in 46.4.” His regular rider Aaron Gryder remains in the irons and do not be surprised if an announcement is made that he will be wearing blinkers on Saturday as he should be a hint of a price to start the early Pick 4.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (3) DISCO BALL at 5-2 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #3 with #1 Seiche. No reverse.
Daily Double: (3) DISCO BALL with (8) TILTED TOWERS.
Race 3: TILTED TOWERS (#8, 4-1)
The morning line favorite Much More Halo has become known as a bridesmaid that disappoints at short prices. In seven career starts, the son of More than Ready has disappointed at 5-2 (three times) and at 8-5 and with his tendency to finish second this Bob Baffert trainee is a prime candidate to defeat at what should be short odds again. He was my top choice in his return off the long layoff on July 25 but TILTED TOWERS ran well under the circumstances and just needs a clean start to flash his early speed. In his debut on June 1, 2019 on the main track at Santa Anita, where he was a was step slow from the start, rushed up to contest a very fast first quarter of a mile with the favored winner Comical Ghost, continued to duel with that rival around the far turn and tried to hang tough with that rival to the top of the stretch before finally giving way to lose by twelve and a half lengths in a race where the winner earned 88 Beyer Speed Figure. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to repeat her 88 Beyer Speed Figure winning Allowance N1X, third-place finisher Oakland Mills returned to break his maiden with a 82 Beyer Speed Figure (eight point improvement) and the fourth-place finisher earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure (five point improvement) in his next start. The Atreidas gelding returned from a 420 day layoff on July 25 making his first start on turf and ran a respectable race to finish fifth splitting his eleven horse field and he could have finished closer if he did not have a tough start. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he was “bumped by the runner-up at the start in turn bumping with EL CHAPIN, raced off the pace, lagged off the pace, three-wide into the drive, made up a bit of ground late,” in a race dominated by the uncontested gate to wire winner Highly Distorted. He should move forward in his second race following the long layoff and has come back with two workouts including a half-mile spin in 49 seconds on August 10 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B- stating a “decent work.” Abel Cedillo rides for the resurgent Phil D’Amato barn.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (8) TILTED TOWERS at 5-2 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #3 Cem Sultan, #6 Graziano. Small reverse for each.
Race 5: EL JOY (#5, 8-1)
The morning line favorite Caisson is favored off fourth place finish in his career debut at today’s distance twenty-one days ago. The son of War Front by four time turf and Grade 1 EP Taylor winner Curvy ran respectable in his career debut. According to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “settled off the pace, three-wide around the far turn, entered the lane four-deep, drifted out and forced the winner to alter course past mid stretch, even the final 1/16.” From a visual and time standpoint this was not the most impressive maiden event. The first seven horses were seperated by only four lengths and the visual aspect was matched by the 48 Beyer Speed Figure the race earned. Instead my creative juices searched through the pedigrees of each of the entrants and landed on EL JOY who is stretching out and trying the turf for the first time, something he pedigree suggests he will adore. He made his debut on August 1 where he was sent off as the second longest shot in the field of nine going off at 40-1 and he ran to his odds finishing seventh where the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “broke a step slow, rushing up to sit outside 4 lengths down, starting to struggle midturn, quickly falling apart by the drive.” However, that was sprinting on the main track and this Eoin Harty trainee is bred to adore the stretch out to two turns on turf. He is by 14% turf stallion Kitten’s Joy and is by the dam BlueGrass Music who won two of eighteen starts routing on the turf and El Joy is a full brother to Henley’s Joy who won four of seventeen starts routing on the turf including Grade 1 Belmont Derby. Trainer Eoin Harty’s starters have yet to finish in the money based on the limited amount of starts, four, but he has a history of winning with second time starters trying grass and going a route of ground for the first time. In the past five years, he has won at respectable 18% (3-for-17) with that move and two of those starters did not go off favored, Sayin Grace (August 24, 2018, $10.40-1) and Delaphene (July 16, 2017, $5.10-1). In a race maiden race where there are no true standouts, EL JOY is a good alternative given the progeny of Kitten’s Joy on the turf and trainer Eoin Harty popping up with a price with his second time starters trying grass and a route for the first time.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (5) EL JOY at 6-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #1 Eagle in the Sky, #6 Raisebeforetheflop. Reverse for a smaller amount.
Race 7: ZIPPER MISCHIEF (#8, 5-1)
I have two strong stands in this race. The first stand is I am going to throw out the morning line favorite Hit It Seam who defeated open company for horses that started for $50,000 or less or have not won two races on June 13 at Santa Anita. The issue with that earned the highest last race 85 Beyer and 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the trip he encountered. He was loose on a very easy lead and won going away in a race that saw the first two finishers run first and second at each call. There are three others in this field that have triple digit plus TimeformUS early pace ratings and Hit It Seam will not have an easy trip on the front end. The second stand is against horses that ran on the July 24 race here at Del Mar. That race saw many horses behind the winner Preaching Trainer encounter trouble in a race that saw the first nine finishers separated by only three-lengths at the wire and the visual impression was matched with the subpar 74 Beyer Speed Figure the race earned. With the amount of early speed signed on the race flow will work in the favor of ZIPPER MISCHIEF who is making his second start as a gelding and off 189 day layoff. The son of Into Mischief has hit the board in four of his last five starts sprinting on the turf including all three starts on this Del Mar turf course. The Blake Heap trainee returned from the long layoff on June 20 and caught a field with little positional change among the first three finishers as they ran first, third, and second around the race track and broke from the disadvantage post position one. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “raced midfield down the backstretch, bid along the rail past the quarter-pole, angled out at the head of the lane, ran in place to the wire.” With that race under his belt, he should move forward in his second start off the long layoff and has returned with six workouts including a five furlong move in 1:01.3 on August 8 that the Handicapper’s Report clocker gave it a B- stating “looked better this week, splits of 12.2, 24.3, 36.4, lightly niggled in 101.2, not a bad work.” The son of multiple stakes winner Unzip Me, retains the services of Victor Espinoza and in a race where I have knocks against this bay gelding is eligible to improve and could spice up the multi-race wagers that start the late Pick 5.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (8) ZIPPER MISCHIEF at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #4 Dreamer’s Reality, #6 Scouted, #9 Johnny Podres. Small reverse.
Race 8: MANDRAGORA SEEKER (#9, 10-1)
Just as with the second race, this race will feature the debut of Illumination who made the Handicapper’s Report Fit and Ready list as a horse ready to win. She is by 13% two-year old first time starter stallion Medaglia D’Oro out of the Street Sense mare Light the City who won three of eleven starts with two of those wins coming as a two-year old. She is trained by Bob Baffert who excels with debuting maidens in dirt sprints this meet and brings a stellar series of workouts for her career debut with her B or B+ moves. The expected price below 2-1 is a negative on a filly making her career debut. I am inclined to look for an entrant with experience that worked well before and after their only start and landed on MANDRAGORA SEEKER. Although her sire, Outwork, has produced only 7% (2-for-27) winners this is his first crop but this bay filly is by outstanding Winchell owned and bred Classic Olympio who won six of nineteen starts and she was a stakes winner sprinting on the main track earning a career best 98 Beyer Speed Figure as a two-year old. She has produced seven winners from ten starters including multiple dirt sprint winner Classify, Simplify, Seeker, and Just the Tap and two of those winners were two-year old winners. In addition, she had worked very well for her debut where Handicapper’s Report clocker gave her a B for her 33.4 blowout from the gate on July 24 where the clocker stated “three lengths clear in 34.1 when up well out in the middle of the racetrack, a good display of speed by the unraced $47K Outwork two year-old filly, who has plenty of gas if nothing else.” With the pedigree, series of quick workouts, and trainer Luis Mendez history of debuting maidens she was sent off as the co favorite at 3-1 and disappointed sprinting on the turf. According to the Handicapper’s Report trip note, “she raced midpack inside, drifted out while coming off the rail around the far turn, outrun into the drive, no rally.” This race served nothing more than an educational run as Madragora Seeker as she makes her second career start for trainer Luis Mendez who wins at above average 33% (4-for-12) in the past five years with second start maidens in dirt sprints. She returned five days ago with a 34.3 move that was the fastest of twenty-eight at the distance the Handicapper’s Report gave her a B or this work stating “ran right on by (workmate She Be Salty) in the stretch, lightly tapped once past mid stretch, up at the wire in 34.2, a sharp display of speed by the once raced Outwork filly, who failed on the turf, but can improve on the main track.” With all her sharp breezes on the main track, pedigree tilted towards the main track, and a trainer that improves their starters in the second career race makes MANDRAGORA SEEKER the upset candidate.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (9) MANDRAGORA SEEKER at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #9 with #3 Isn’t Show Love, #5 Forest Caraway, #4 Illumination. Small reverse.
Race 10: LUCK’S ROYAL FLUSH (#9, 20-1)
The two morning line favorites look competitive in this field but in my opinion are throw outs. It’s Tiz Time drops from the tougher and fastest race in this field, Allowance N1X sprint that saw the winner Knee Deep Ins Now earn a 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The issue I have with this Tiznow horse is his soundness as he is a seven year old with only thirteen starts as he has been bothered by various issues indicated by the number of layoff lines in his last four starts. He returned from a 378 day layoff on November 24, 2019 and won at this class level sprinting here at Del Mar then returned from a seventy days later and ran second in Allowance N1X raced once more before returning off a ninety eight day layoff last time out and finished fourth and now returns off another seventy day layoff. The second choice Zimba Warrior was my top pick on July 25 when he dropped into a restricted claiming event for three-year old and won but he was the recipient of a pace meltdown as the three horses battled for the lead through fast fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+4,+4) and he rallied past the best of the speed horses, Drippin Sauce, to win by a length and a half. Based on a review of the running lines in this field and according to TimeformUS pace projector, this race came up light on one dimensional front running speed and that will compromise Zimba Warrior and only help our longshot top choice LUCK’S ROYAL FLUSH. This Lucky Pulpit colt has some back class having won a stakes as a two-year old in his fourth career start and was second in the Graduation Stakes here at Del Mar. After being the best of a speed duel and was caught by a perfect trip winner in his final start as a two-year old he was not seen as a three-year old and returned from 569 day layoff on June 20 and he never had a smooth trip. The Handicapper’s Report trip notes commented “rank early, traveled uncomfortably between runners into the far turn, went backwards into the lane, had nothing to offer.” I will draw a line through this race because he never appeared comfortable on the turf and the long layoff. He dropped in class and returned to the main track on July 26 facing open $32,000 claiming company and finished tenth and last beaten eight and a half lengths behind 56-1 midpack stalking winner Sweet River Baines but that poor effort was the result of chasing a fast early pace. He was hustled away from the gate and sat off the leader Posterize and post time favorite I’m Busy for the first half mile through fast fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (+4,+4). He stayed in contention to the quarter pole before dropping out of it into the stretch and was wrapped up to the wire. He is now protected in this race dropping in class to facing horses that have started for $50,000 or less and have not won three races. The leader in TimeformUS early pace rating by double digits to the next fastest early pace rating in the field thus he will find himself on the lead according to the pace projector. Hustling rider Edwin Maldonado remains in the irons and expect one strategy, go to the front and try to chase him to the wire in his third race off the layoff at juicy price.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (9) LUCK’S ROYAL FLUSH to WIN at 12-1 or higher.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #9 with #6 Pyron, #8 Lil Sydney. Small reverse.
Pick 3 Race 2:
Race 2: (3) DISCO BALL
Race 3: (3) Cem Sultan, (6) Grazino, (8) TILTED TOWERS
Race 4: (1) Ronamo, (4) Mongolian Legend
Ticket 1: 3 with 3,6,8 with 1,4 = 1 x 3 x 2 x $2 = $12
Ticket 2: 3 with 8 with 1,4 = 1 x 1 x 2 x $4 = $8
Total Wager: $20
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