Mandragora Seeker Can Improve on Main Track in Loaded Maiden Race

 Race 2: DISCO BALL (#3, 4-1)

The morning line favorite is the first time starter Seiche from the always dangerous Bob Baffert barn who at this meet is 3/2-1-0 with debuting maidens in a dirt sprint and that lone defeat was Spielberg (August 8, 2020, 4-5). The son of Super Saver enters with the prerequisite fast workouts for his career debut with Handicapper’s Report giving him high praise with grade of B in two of his last three workouts including his on August 10 where he went five furlongs in 59.4 where the Handicapper’s Report clocker stated “a good work for the $230K Super Saver gelding, we are just not sure if he went further than this.” From a pedigree standpoint, there is little evidence that Seiche will be precious. His sire is only 9% with first time starters and the dam Roberta Turner has produced only one starter who split the field in his only start. Instead, I will go with experience in DISCO BALL who has finished in the money in his two starts and each start is better than the last. In his career debut last summer here at Del Mar, he was bet down to the 5-2 second choice in the field and he flashed high early speed to duel inside with the favorite Broon as those two opened up a three-length lead on their nearest rival into the turn, he battled back at the top of the stretch to gain the lead and fought on gamely towards the wire to hold the lead only to be run down by a pair of opportunistic stalkers that rallied from third and fourth after the first quarter of a mile to finish third beaten only a half-length winning the early battle for the lead but lost the war. The son of Orb was not seen for the rest of 2019 and he returned from a 342-day layoff on June 27 at Los Alamitos where he was bet down to the 7-5 post time favorite with a series of B or B+ for his return according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker and he disappointed to run second but he did not have the cleanest of starts and ran into impressive winner in a highly rated maiden event (89 Beyer Speed Figure). He threw his head at the start to be away one length slow at the start, parked four wide down the backstretch, made a three wide run on the far turn under a drive and into the stretch, and finished up under his own energy to be a clear second. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner Vertical Threat came back to win the Smiling Tiger Stakes with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. The bay colt has come back with five workouts with two of them graded as B by the Handicapper’s Report clocker including a best of fifty half mile spin on August 10 in 46.4 that HR clocker commented “wore blinkers (new) for this fast half-mile move, opening 1/4 in 23.3, not asked at all in the stretch, finishing full of run in 46.4.” His regular rider Aaron Gryder remains in the irons and do not be surprised if an announcement is made that he will be wearing blinkers on Saturday as he should be a hint of a price to start the early Pick 4. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (3) DISCO BALL at 5-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #3 with #1 Seiche. No reverse. 

Daily Double: (3) DISCO BALL with (8) TILTED TOWERS. 

Race 3: TILTED TOWERS (#8, 4-1)

The morning line favorite Much More Halo has become known as a bridesmaid that disappoints at short prices. In seven career starts, the son of More than Ready has disappointed at 5-2 (three times) and at 8-5 and with his tendency to finish second this Bob Baffert trainee is a prime candidate to defeat at what should be short odds again. He was my top choice in his return off the long layoff on July 25 but TILTED TOWERS ran well under the circumstances and just needs a clean start to flash his early speed. In his debut on June 1, 2019 on the main track at Santa Anita, where he was a was step slow from the start, rushed up to contest a very fast first quarter of a mile with the favored winner Comical Ghost, continued to duel with that rival around the far turn and tried to hang tough with that rival to the top of the stretch before finally giving way to lose by twelve and a half lengths in a race where the winner earned 88 Beyer Speed Figure. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to repeat her 88 Beyer Speed Figure winning Allowance N1X, third-place finisher Oakland Mills returned to break his maiden with a 82 Beyer Speed Figure (eight point improvement) and the fourth-place finisher earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure (five point improvement) in his next start. The Atreidas gelding returned from a 420 day layoff on July 25 making his first start on turf and ran a respectable race to finish fifth splitting his eleven horse field and he could have finished closer if he did not have a tough start. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he was “bumped by the runner-up at the start in turn bumping with EL CHAPIN, raced off the pace, lagged off the pace, three-wide into the drive, made up a bit of ground late,” in a race dominated by the uncontested gate to wire winner Highly Distorted. He should move forward in his second race following the long layoff and has come back with two workouts including a half-mile spin in 49 seconds on August 10 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B- stating a “decent work.” Abel Cedillo rides for the resurgent Phil D’Amato barn. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (8) TILTED TOWERS at 5-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #3 Cem Sultan, #6 Graziano. Small reverse for each. 

Race 5: EL JOY (#5, 8-1)

The morning line favorite Caisson is favored off fourth place finish in his career debut at today’s distance twenty-one days ago. The son of War Front by four time turf and Grade 1 EP Taylor winner Curvy ran respectable in his career debut. According to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “settled off the pace, three-wide around the far turn, entered the lane four-deep, drifted out and forced the winner to alter course past mid stretch, even the final 1/16.” From a visual and time standpoint this was not the most impressive maiden event. The first seven horses were seperated by only four lengths and the visual aspect was matched by the 48 Beyer Speed Figure the race earned. Instead my creative juices searched through the pedigrees of each of the entrants and landed on EL JOY who is stretching out and trying the turf for the first time, something he pedigree suggests he will adore. He made his debut on August 1 where he was sent off as the second longest shot in the field of nine going off at 40-1 and he ran to his odds finishing seventh where the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “broke a step slow, rushing up to sit outside 4 lengths down, starting to struggle midturn, quickly falling apart by the drive.” However, that was sprinting on the main track and this Eoin Harty trainee is bred to adore the stretch out to two turns on turf. He is by 14% turf stallion Kitten’s Joy and is by the dam BlueGrass Music who won two of eighteen starts routing on the turf and El Joy is a full brother to Henley’s Joy who won four of seventeen starts routing on the turf including Grade 1 Belmont Derby. Trainer Eoin Harty’s starters have yet to finish in the money based on the limited amount of starts, four, but he has a history of winning with second time starters trying grass and going a route of ground for the first time. In the past five years, he has won at respectable 18% (3-for-17) with that move and two of those starters did not go off favored, Sayin Grace (August 24, 2018, $10.40-1) and Delaphene (July 16, 2017, $5.10-1). In a race maiden race where there are no true standouts, EL JOY is a good alternative given the progeny of Kitten’s Joy on the turf and trainer Eoin Harty popping up with a price with his second time starters trying grass and a route for the first time. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (5) EL JOY at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #1 Eagle in the Sky, #6 Raisebeforetheflop. Reverse for a smaller amount. 

Race 7: ZIPPER MISCHIEF (#8, 5-1)

I have two strong stands in this race. The first stand is I am going to throw out the morning line favorite Hit It Seam who defeated open company for horses that started for $50,000 or less or have not won two races on June 13 at Santa Anita. The issue with that earned the highest last race 85 Beyer and 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the trip he encountered. He was loose on a very easy lead and won going away in a race that saw the first two finishers run first and second at each call. There are three others in this field that have triple digit plus TimeformUS early pace ratings and Hit It Seam will not have an easy trip on the front end. The second stand is against horses that ran on the July 24 race here at Del Mar. That race saw many horses behind the winner Preaching Trainer encounter trouble in a race that saw the first nine finishers separated by only three-lengths at the wire and the visual impression was matched with the subpar 74 Beyer Speed Figure the race earned. With the amount of early speed signed on the race flow will work in the favor of ZIPPER MISCHIEF who is making his second start as a gelding and off 189 day layoff. The son of Into Mischief has hit the board in four of his last five starts sprinting on the turf including all three starts on this Del Mar turf course. The Blake Heap trainee returned from the long layoff on June 20 and caught a field with little positional change among the first three finishers as they ran first, third, and second around the race track and broke from the disadvantage post position one. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “raced midfield down the backstretch, bid along the rail past the quarter-pole, angled out at the head of the lane, ran in place to the wire.” With that race under his belt, he should move forward in his second start off the long layoff and has returned with six workouts including a five furlong move in 1:01.3 on August 8 that the Handicapper’s Report clocker gave it a B- stating “looked better this week, splits of 12.2, 24.3, 36.4, lightly niggled in 101.2, not a bad work.” The son of multiple stakes winner Unzip Me, retains the services of Victor Espinoza and in a race where I have knocks against this bay gelding is eligible to improve and could spice up the multi-race wagers that start the late Pick 5. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (8) ZIPPER MISCHIEF at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #4 Dreamer’s Reality, #6 Scouted, #9 Johnny Podres. Small reverse. 

Race 8: MANDRAGORA SEEKER (#9, 10-1)

Just as with the second race, this race will feature the debut of Illumination who made the Handicapper’s Report Fit and Ready list as a horse ready to win. She is by 13% two-year old first time starter stallion Medaglia D’Oro out of the Street Sense mare Light the City who won three of eleven starts with two of those wins coming as a two-year old. She is trained by Bob Baffert who excels with debuting maidens in dirt sprints this meet and brings a stellar series of workouts for her career debut with her B or B+ moves. The expected price below 2-1 is a negative on a filly making her career debut. I am inclined to look for an entrant with experience that worked well before and after their only start and landed on MANDRAGORA SEEKER. Although her sire, Outwork, has produced only 7% (2-for-27) winners this is his first crop but this bay filly is by outstanding Winchell owned and bred Classic Olympio who won six of nineteen starts and she was a stakes winner sprinting on the main track earning a career best 98 Beyer Speed Figure as a two-year old. She has produced seven winners from ten starters including multiple dirt sprint winner Classify, Simplify, Seeker, and Just the Tap and two of those winners were two-year old winners. In addition, she had worked very well for her debut where Handicapper’s Report clocker gave her a B for her 33.4 blowout from the gate on July 24 where the clocker stated “three lengths clear in 34.1 when up well out in the middle of the racetrack, a good display of speed by the unraced $47K Outwork two year-old filly, who has plenty of gas if nothing else.” With the pedigree, series of quick workouts, and trainer Luis Mendez history of debuting maidens she was sent off as the co favorite at 3-1 and disappointed sprinting on the turf. According to the Handicapper’s Report trip note, “she raced midpack inside, drifted out while coming off the rail around the far turn, outrun into the drive, no rally.” This race served nothing more than an educational run as Madragora Seeker as she makes her second career start for trainer Luis Mendez who wins at above average 33% (4-for-12) in the past five years with second start maidens in dirt sprints. She returned five days ago with a 34.3 move that was the fastest of twenty-eight at the distance the Handicapper’s Report gave her a B or this work stating “ran right on by (workmate She Be Salty) in the stretch, lightly tapped once past mid stretch, up at the wire in 34.2, a sharp display of speed by the once raced Outwork filly, who failed on the turf, but can improve on the main track.” With all her sharp breezes on the main track, pedigree tilted towards the main track, and a trainer that improves their starters in the second career race makes MANDRAGORA SEEKER the upset candidate. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (9) MANDRAGORA SEEKER at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #9 with #3 Isn’t Show Love, #5 Forest Caraway, #4 Illumination. Small reverse. 

Race 10: LUCK’S ROYAL FLUSH (#9, 20-1)

The two morning line favorites look competitive in this field but in my opinion are throw outs. It’s Tiz Time drops from the tougher and fastest race in this field, Allowance N1X sprint that saw the winner Knee Deep Ins Now earn a 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The issue I have with this Tiznow horse is his soundness as he is a seven year old with only thirteen starts as he has been bothered by various issues indicated by the number of layoff lines in his last four starts. He returned from a 378 day layoff on November 24, 2019 and won at this class level sprinting here at Del Mar then returned from a seventy days later and ran second in Allowance N1X raced once more before returning off a ninety eight day layoff last time out and finished fourth and now returns off another seventy day layoff. The second choice Zimba Warrior was my top pick on July 25 when he dropped into a restricted claiming event for three-year old and won but he was the recipient of a pace meltdown as the three horses battled for the lead through fast fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+4,+4) and he rallied past the best of the speed horses, Drippin Sauce, to win by a length and a half. Based on a review of the running lines in this field and according to TimeformUS pace projector, this race came up light on one dimensional front running speed and that will compromise Zimba Warrior and only help our longshot top choice LUCK’S ROYAL FLUSH. This Lucky Pulpit colt has some back class having won a stakes as a two-year old in his fourth career start and was second in the Graduation Stakes here at Del Mar. After being the best of a speed duel and was caught by a perfect trip winner in his final start as a two-year old he was not seen as a three-year old and returned from 569 day layoff on June 20 and he never had a smooth trip. The Handicapper’s Report trip notes commented “rank early, traveled uncomfortably between runners into the far turn, went backwards into the lane, had nothing to offer.” I will draw a line through this race because he never appeared comfortable on the turf and the long layoff. He dropped in class and returned to the main track on July 26 facing open $32,000 claiming company and finished tenth and last beaten eight and a half lengths behind 56-1 midpack stalking winner Sweet River Baines but that poor effort was the result of chasing a fast early pace. He was hustled away from the gate and sat off the leader Posterize and post time favorite I’m Busy for the first half mile through fast fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (+4,+4). He stayed in contention to the quarter pole before dropping out of it into the stretch and was wrapped up to the wire. He is now protected in this race dropping in class to facing horses that have started for $50,000 or less and have not won three races. The leader in TimeformUS early pace rating by double digits to the next fastest early pace rating in the field thus he will find himself on the lead according to the pace projector. Hustling rider Edwin Maldonado remains in the irons and expect one strategy, go to the front and try to chase him to the wire in his third race off the layoff at juicy price. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (9) LUCK’S ROYAL FLUSH to WIN at 12-1 or higher. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #9 with #6 Pyron, #8 Lil Sydney. Small reverse. 

Pick 3 Race 2: 

Race 2: (3) DISCO BALL

Race 3: (3) Cem Sultan, (6) Grazino, (8) TILTED TOWERS

Race 4: (1) Ronamo, (4) Mongolian Legend

Ticket 1: 3 with 3,6,8 with 1,4 = 1 x 3 x 2 x $2 = $12 

Ticket 2: 3 with 8 with 1,4       = 1 x 1 x 2 x $4 = $8 

Total Wager: $20

 

Bodhicitta Looks to Mow Them Down in the John Mabee

 Race 5: BEGUILDED (#1, 15-1)

This race that ends the early Pick 5 interests me the most on the entire card because of the possibility of throwing out the morning line favorite MEREDITH. She is by terrific first time turf stallion American Pharoah who connects at 17% with his progeny trying the grass for the first time but there is nothing on the female side of her pedigree and trainer’s record with surface switch from dirt to turf and sprint to route makes her bet against. Her dam Flattermewithroses won once in sixteen starts and tried routing on the turf five times without a win. Secondly, trainer Bob Baffert excels with debuting maidens sprinting on the main track and with three-year old pointing for the classic races but in the past five years he is 23/0-5-2 with his trainees going from dirt to turf and stretching out from a sprint to route. She figures to control the pace from start exiting a fast pace sprint but will find company for the lead with My Little Runaway and Summer Love forwardly placed. Instead, I am going to back a horse making her second race off the layoff exiting a tough trip seventh-place finish in her return. BEGUILDED is half sister to Phil D’Amato trained Fault who won six of sixteenth starts including Grade 2 Buena Vista at one-mile on the turf and Grade 1 Santa Margarita at mile and an eighth on the main track. She did not have a real visible excuse when she finished eighth in the China Doll Stakes as she raced between rivals behind a two horse duel and was always in good striking position but failed to show a late kick in a race where the first ten finishers were separated by only five lengths. The daughter of Orb returned from a 127-day layoff on July 12 where she was dismissed at 21-1 and was working like a filly that was going to need that first race off the layoff as she came into that event with three consecutive C+ works per the Handicapper’s Report clocker and she ran accordingly beaten five lengths but a closer inspection of that race reveals she had no chance with the trip she endured. Forced to break from post position ten in a ten horse field, she was parked four to five paths wide leaving the chute and ran around the first turn three wide and into the backstretch behind a slow early pace. Next to the wide journey, she took a funny step midway on the backstretch and into the far turn tried to commence a three to four wide run at the top of the stretch and lost her punch with her stablemate Carpe Vinum emerging victorious. She now makes her second race off the extended layoff and goes from the extreme outside to the rail to save ground under hot riding Juan Hernandez. The bay filly has returned to training much better with two works capped off by a 1:01.1 move on the turf that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B working with stable mate Zee Drop where “neither were asked.” I expect to see half of her morning line and that is acceptable and I expect her to move forward with a ground saving trip. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (1) BEGUILDED at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #6 Summer Love and #8 Moonhill Milly. Small reverse for each. 

Race 7: FIVESTAR LYNCH (#5, 10-1)

The TimeformUS pace projector and review of the running lines of the nine entrants in this field reveal a lack of early speed signed on in this 1-⅜ miles turf event. The pace projector indicates there is no early speed and majority in this field are assigned a running style of midpack or closers and this race can unfold at tepid pace for our top choice FIVESTAR LYNCH. The Richard Baltas trainee broke his maiden in his eighth career start for $62,500 claiming price on February 8 with the aid of a perfect trip. He saved ground around the first turn and the far turn behind the leader Trojan Magic who set a fast pace to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures. He tipped off the rail into the stretch and rallied to wear down the longtime leader Trojan Magic to win by a half-length. The Slade Power gelding returned from a 106-day layoff on May 24 in a race that appeared he needed the race off more than a three month layoff. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “stalked inside, angled a bit off the rail in the stretch, between horses within range deep stretch, not good enough,” in a race that saw the winner Red King returned to win Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure and eighth place finisher Posterize returned to win $32,000 claiming dirt sprint with a 85 Beyer Speed Figure. He made his second start off the layoff on the final race of the Santa Anita spring-summer meet on June 21 and ran eighth beaten seven and a half-lengths in a race that one can dismiss because the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “ran outside at the back, winding up in the turn, circling very wide, showing a mild late kick to pass a few.” He suffered very bad riding tactics as this gelding shown to sit close to the early pace and succeed and also he had a very wide journey covering 54ft more than the first through third place finishers and 38ft more than the fourth place finisher Succeedandsurpass in a race where the runner-up Lincoln City returned to win at the same class level with a 87 Beyer Speed Figure. He has returned with five workouts including his last drill where he worked in company heads up with the stakes placed sprinter Ginobli on August 2 in 48 seconds flat (Fivestar Lynch - August 2) that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave B-. Abel Cedillo takes over in the irons and with aggressive ride from the start he dictates terms on the front end without losing ground on both turns and can spring the upset to start the Saturday late Pick 5 at Del Mar.

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) FIVESTAR LYNCH at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #8 Tintoretto and #7 Cupid’s Claw. Small reverse for each.   

Race 9: BODHICITTA (#2, 6-1)

The scratch of Jodie Olimpica changed the pace scenario of this race as that filly was expected to be the pacesetter and now look for Summering from the rail post position to go straight for the early lead along with Harmless tracking or pressing the leader in second early. A mare that can be overlooked is BODHICITTA who enters this race in peak form with two wins and a second in three starts this year. Her main asset is her late kick and she displayed that in her previous win on March 8 at Santa Anita. The Showcasing filly found the rail around the first turn, angled off the rail in two path down the backstretch behind a moderate early pace, angled four wide at the top of the stretch, and delivered a big late kick to blow by the rail rally of Dogtag to win by length and a half. She completed her final quarter of a mile in 22.86 seconds and her win was flattered when Dogtag returned to win Allowance N2X and Possibly Perfect Stakes in her next two starts with 88 and 89 Beyer Speed Figures respectively. Her connections became ambitious when she returned in the Grade 1 Gamely on May 25 at Santa Anita trying to stretch her late kick to 1-⅛ miles for the first time and she ran well behind the perfect trip stalking winner Keeper of the Stars to lose by length and a quarter. In that race, she found herself towards the rear of the field behind a fast pace set by uncontested leader Giza Goddess early. She moved up one off the rail in the two path on the far turn, angled five wide at the top of the stretch, and delivered a final three-eighths in 34.56 seconds to catch second over Mucho Unusual. The chestnut filly returns from a seventy-five day layoff with seven workouts including five furlong moves with stablemate and recent Wickker Stakes winner Bob and Jackie on July 30 in 1:02.20 (Bodhicitta - July 30) where the Handicapper’s Report clocker gave it a B stating “appearing best, good work for her,” and he also gave her two previous works on this turf course a B as well. Regular rider Flavien Prat who is second in the jockey standings with seven turf wins remains in the irons and drawn well in post position two I expect her to save ground and unleash her devastating late kick to spring the minor upset. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (2) BODHICITTA at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #3 Tonahutu, #7 Beau Recall. Small reverse for each. 

Daily Double: (2) BODHICITTA with (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ  

Race 10: SUPERMAN SHAQ (#4, 7-2)

The morning line favorite that will get the majority of attention will be the $1 million Keeneland September 2019 purchase Spielberg who was the highest priced yearling from the sixty-three yearlings by his sire Union Rags. He is trained by trainer Bob Baffert who has started two debuting maidens sprinting on the main track this meet and both return winners as the favorite, Happier (July 31, 2020, $1.20-1) with 89 Beyer Speed Figure and Freedom Fighter (August 1, 2020, $0.50-1) with a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. He enters this race with the prequisite fast works with two of his four workouts over the Del Mar main track best of the morning. Two issues with this pricey yearling is the pedigree is not to win early and he has shown the lack of quick gate speed. By 11% first time out sire by the dam Miss Sequel who won three of seventeen starts and won all three starts routing on the main track and her only foal High Road won his two starts routing on an off track. Moreover, I am concerned with his ability to break fast from the gate as he was slow into stride in his half-mile spin on 46.20 on July 20 (Spielberg - July 20). Instead I am more interested and strongly feel that SUPERMAN SHAQ has the combination of win early pedigree, high price purchase, and excellent workouts to suggest this Peter Miller trainee is ready to win in his career debut. He cost $550,000 at the Ocala Spring Sale which was the highest priced two-year old from the fourteen two-year olds by Shackleford at the sale. The female family is the reason that he fetched such a high price as the dam Drumette has produced five winners from five starters with two of those winners two-year old winners. Her standout foal is Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and Breeders Cup Distaff winner Monomoy Girl who has won eleven of thirteen starts including three wins from four starts as a two-year old and Mr. Monomoy who won two of five starts including one of three starts as a two-year old. Superman Shaq enters this race with seven workouts including a visually impressive five furlong move in 1:01.60 on July 27 (Superman Shaq - July 27) where he broke fast to outbreak his workmate, waited for his mate to catch up into the turn, re-broke again to work to the five furlong pole and galloping out past it while his workmate ended the work and three-quarter pole in a work that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B- stating he “has ability, outworked an older horse and is worth following.” Trainer Peter Miller is off to fast start this meet as the leading trainer and has connected at a 50% clip (4/2-0-1) with his two-year olds making their debut in maiden special weight dirt sprints as both winners were not the favorite, What’s Up Surfer (July 12, 2020, $2.90-1) and Good with People (July 12, 2020, $3.00-1). The gate speed he shown in his July 27 work and his subsequent August 2 work that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave him a B will give him an advantage over the morning line favorite Spielberg and with the percoious win early breeding and his trainer’s fast start this meet, I expect Superman Shaq to break running and make every pole a winning one at a hint of a price in the first leg of the late Daily Double. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #3 Noble Reflection, #8 Dr. Schivel. Small reverse for each. 

Daily Double: (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ with (6) SWEET DEVIL. 

Race 11: SWEET DEVIL (#6, 5-1)

The new face in the Del Mar finale Ya Beauty I respect as she received positive Timeform Foreign comments on her runner-up effort on June 24 versus twelve horse field where she was three and three-quarter lengths in front of the rest of the field as she is “open to further improvement and is well up to winning a similar event.” The filly I will be taking a stand against is the second choice on the morning line Nurse Goodbody who has disappointed at odds of 2-1 and 8-5 in her last two starts. When she ran second beaten a length on May 24 she was part of a bunched field where the first seven horses were separated by four and a quarter lengths and last time out she was the beaten favorite where she was “struggling four-wide under a drive in the far turn, completely empty in the stretch,” according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. She is a bet against and the top preference goes back to my top selection on July 11. SWEET DEVIL has managed to finish in the money only once in three starts on the turf but each of those starts was better than it appears on paper. In her career debut, she was dismissed at 37-1 in her career debut on January 11 where she ran a respectable race to defeat more than half the field to wire despite racing greenly through the stretch rallying in traffic to lose by only four-lengths and galloped out very well after the wire to indicate additional ground should pose no problem. She stretched out to 1-⅛ miles in her next start and she ran well to finish third beaten only a half-length in a race where she lost ground around both turns and was close to early pace that saw the two leaders weaken to finish fifth and seventh. She was a little head strong early crossing the wire for the first time and was parked three wide on the first turn and into the backstretch chasing the two leaders Nu Pi Lambda and Undisturbed. She made a three wide move on the far turn to take over the lead into the stretch and refused to quit easily staying on gamely through deep stretch as the two rivals that outfinished Sweet Devil rallied from seventh and sixth after the first half-mile. After a dirt debacle on May 17 versus a key race field, she returned to turf on July 11 and lost more ground than the one-length margin of defeat would indicate. The daughter of Daredevil broke from post position eleven in an eleven horse field and was parked three wide on the first turn and stayed that wide down the backstretch, moved up three wide on the far turn and into the stretch and “battled tenaciously down the center of the track, beaten a neck for second,” according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. The Mike McCarthy trainee is drawn better this afternoon and I expect to get a ground saving trip under Juan Hernandez who has four turf wins this meet.  She has been the victim of some tough trips in her recent turf starts but if Sweet Devil gets a clean ground saving trip she can break through with her diploma in her fifth career start as my BEST BET on the card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (6) SWEET DEVIL at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #11 Ya Beauty. Small reverse for each.

Small Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #5 Noble Hearted. No reverse. 

Del Mar Pick 3 Race 9

Race 9: (2) BODHICITTA, (3) Tonahutu, (7) Beau Recall

Race 10: (3) Noble Reflection, (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ, (8) Dr. Schivel 

Race 11: (6) SWEET DEVIL, (11) Ya Beauty

Ticket 1: 2 with 3,4,8 with 6,11  = 1 x 3 x 2 x $2 = $12 

Ticket 2: 2,3,7 with 4 with 6,11  = 3 x 1 x 2 x $2 = $12 

Ticket 3: 2,3,7 with 3,4,8 with 6 = 3 x 3 x 1 x $2 = $18 

Total Wager: $42 

 

Guitty Looks for Clean Journey in San Clemente

Race 3: LAMBEAU (#6, 3-1) 

The morning line favorite Dark Vader comes into this race with the best last race 95 Beyer and 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure with his third-place finish in the G2 Triple Bend Handicap behind multiple Grade 1 winner McKenzie. That was his first start in 338-days and he is eligible to improve but this five-year old has two issues that can compromise his chances on the drop in class. First is the likely early pace of this race as TimeformUS pace projector predicts this race will unfold at a tepid pace and this mid-pack stalker is dependent on the early speed coming back to him and second he has yet to show the winning spirit with six combined seconds or thirds from twelve starts. The lack of early speed in this race really helps LAMBEAU to dictate his own terms on the front end for the Zenyatta connections of Jerry Moss, trainer John Shirreffs, and jockey Mike Smith. He is at home at this one mile distance with a record of 3/2-0-1 and exits a fast pace gate to wire score at this trip sixty-nine days ago at Santa Anita. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the son of First Sarmurai “avoided pressure to open up around the first turn and onto the backstretch, Smith allowed him to take a breather around the far turn, turned back a challenge from the runner-up leaving that bend to deep stretch, kicked away again to the wire,” earning the third-highest last race 92 Beyer and second-highest last race 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field. The dark bay or brown colt set a very fast early pace as he earned off the chart Moss Pace Figures (+16, +7) and he owns the best TimeformUS early pace rating in this field making him the clear pacesetter in this event. The form of his allowance victory was validated when second-and-fourth place finishers returned to run second-and-first at the same class level in their next start earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 93 and 94 respectively and the seventh-place finisher Justin’s Quest duplicated his 80 Beyer Speed Figure when he dropped to N2L claiming event and won by a half-length in his next start. The brief hiatus of sixty-nine days is strong strength for the John Shiirreffs barn as he has won at 33% (18/6-4-3) in the past five years with his dirt routers returning off a sixty to eighty day layoff. With Mike Smith aggressive front running tactics, LAMBEAU should make the early lead into the first turn and down the backstretch and prove a tough rival to run down as the pacesetter and our BEST BET on today’s card. 

Wagering Strategy:

Main Exacta part-wheel: 6-3. No reverse. 

Smaller Exacta part-wheel: 6-7. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #6 Lambeau with #6 Secret Keeper 

Pick 3 part-wheel: #6 Lambeau with #6 Secret Keeper with #8 Never Be Enough, #1 Unicorn, and #3 Woodfin. 

Race 4: SECRET KEEPER (#6, 9-2)

The majority of the betting public will either concede this race to the Bob Baffert uncoupled entry mates Meredith and flashy maiden winner Provocation who will go off favored over her stablemate. My issue with both horses is they each broke their maiden around one turn and did so under ideal circumstances where they were going to deliver winning performances that earned them “ridden out” chart comment. Meredith broke her maiden on April 19 over a sloppy main track at Oaklawn Park where she pressed the pace in the clear, took over from overmatched leaders, and geared down earning career best 91 Beyer and 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The issue with that win was she pressed a very slow early pace according to Moss Pace Figures (-16, -4) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures versus a sub-par field as the nine-horses that have run back it has produced only one winner, Ocean Breeze, who earned improved 80 Beyer Speed Figure and the rest of the field are combined produced three third-place finishers and five that finished off the board. Provocation broke her maiden on closing day of Santa Anita where it was a match race between her and stable mate Himiko as those two finished eleven and a half lengths in front of the rest of the field with Provocation able to dictate terms on the front end and won by length and three-quarters “handily.” The issue with that win is the slow pace she dictated as she earned below average Moss Pace Figures (-14, -5) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. I will play against both at short prices and go for another maiden winner in SECRET KEEPER. Another daughter of Into Mischief, she was ignored in her career debut going off at 10-1 on May 25 in a race where the Bob Baffert trained first time starter, Fierce for Sul, was sent off at 3-5 and this Cliff Sise Jr. trainee proved she was ready for the challenge running down that rival to score the upset. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “she ran off the rail 4 lengths down, working a bit to keep her margin even in the turn, coming into the lane wide, maintaining her effort, driving by in the final 1/16th to win going away.” Despite only earning a 77 Beyer Speed Figure, her 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure is on par with the two favorites in this field. She will make her first start off a sixty-one day layoff and she trained very well over the Del Mar surface posting three works locally including five furlong move in 59 ⅘ on July 11 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “sharp looking spin looping around a barnmate and a 4f working M McCarthy trainee going clear in a big 36.4, 59.3 (22.4 LQ). Loads to like here.” She has speed to lead but if Meredith and Provocation elect to go as TimeformUS pace projector predicts then jockey Abel Cedillo can place SECRET KEEPER in third just off those two leaders in the garden spot and pounce. At a price that will be much higher and credentials to win, this home bred filly is the clear choice to upset the top two finishers and can spice up prices in multi-race bets with a win in this first condition Allowance event. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (6) SECRET KEEPER at 7-2 or better. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #6 Secret Keeper with #8 Never Be Enough, #1 Unicorn, and #3 Woodfin. 

Race 5: NEVER BE ENOUGH (#8, 9-2) 

The morning line favorite Pretty Point drops from Possibly Perfect Stakes where she finished third behind three time stakes winner Dogtag and finished in front of Streak of Luck who returned to win $75,000 stakes at Canterbury Downs in her next start. The belief in the betting public is the extra eighth of a mile of this 1-⅜ distance will benefit her closing kick but she is a filly that is another that lacks winning spirit as she has combined to finish second or third five times from twelve starts. Although the TimeformUS pace projector does not predict a slow pace, there is a lack of confirmed early pace in this field and with her lack of winning punch in the stretch and lack of speed in this field, Pretty Point is a bet against her in this field. The distance will pose no problem for NEVER BE ENOUGH who successfully won going two miles over testing soft ground on the hurdles back in August 2019. She also proved adept at flat racing winning twice at the distance of mile and seventy yards on firm ground. The daughter of Sir Percy made her first start off a 118-day layoff on May 17 for a claiming price of $40,000 and she ran a respectable third beaten three lengths behind the favored gate to wire winner True to Herself. In that race, she sat off the favored winner in the two path early as the winner was allowed to dictate a very slow early pace earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-17, -8) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. The Manuel Badilla trainee made her run at the leader at the top of the stretch but the layoff and the winner being fresh after setting a slow pace proved too much as she tired in the final furlong to be third with her uncoupled stablemate Qafilah rallied to finish second. That race served as perfect prep as she came back twenty-seven days later and won with a perfect trip. In that race she saved ground for the majority of the race sitting in fourth behind three-horse speed duel early, came off the rail and split rivals in the stretch and won going away defeating next out winner Northwest Factor in the process. Never Be Enough earned a career best 85 Beyer Speed Figure and that figure is validated by the run backs in that field. Northwest Factor earned a 77 Beyer Speed Figure (six point improvement), Reginella earned a 75 Beyer Speed Figure in her next start (four point improvement), and Lasting Light earned a 72 Beyer Speed Figure (eighteen point improvement) finishing second in N2X in her next start. She ships to Del Mar for the first time at a distance that will pose no issue and surface she handled equally well in England. She has come back with two works over the Del Mar main track that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved giving both a B+ but her 1:00 ⅗ spin on July 11 stood out as he commented she was “full of run in this spin going faster than given while striding out in 34.3, 59.0. Going great these days.” Jockey Evan Roman rides her for the first time and in a field filled with midpack or closers, she is the projected pacesetter in this field according to TimeformUS pace projector and she should dictate terms on the front end and should be set for another winning effort in her third start off the layoff. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (8) NEVER BE ENOUGH at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #1 Unicorn, #3 Woodfin. Small reverse. 

Race 7: TILTED TOWERS (#8, 8-1)

This wide open maiden sprint on the turf can go many ways but one note I had on my DRF Formulator past performances to play against horses running back from the maiden turf sprint on June 14 won by long shot Tripoli as that race was visually unimpressive with the first seven finishers separated by three and a half lengths and visual aspect was matched by the speed figure as it earned subpar 72 Beyer Speed Figure and second choice on the morning line, Absolute Unit, exits that race and that was his third runner-up finish from seven starts and is developing a case of being a bridesmaid. The field’s most likely pacesetter belongs to my top preference TILTED TOWERS who will make her second career start off a 420-day layoff where he flashed speed and weakened to defeat one rival in a seven-horse field in his only start. He is by Atreides who won four of five starts in his brief career including his first three by a combined twenty-five and three-quarter lengths with Beyer Speed Figures of 105, 102, and 105. His dam Rich Love won only once in six starts but that one win was her second career start where she won sprinting on the turf. He got support in his first start going off as the 6-1 third choice where she was step slow from the start, rushed up to contest a very fast first quarter of a mile with the favored winner Comical Ghost, continued to duel with that rival around the far turn and tried to hang tough with that rival to the top of the stretch before finally giving way to lose by twelve and a half lengths in a race where the winner earned 88 Beyer Speed Figure. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to repeat her 88 Beyer Speed Figure winning Allowance N1X, third-place finisher Oakland Mills returned to break his maiden with a 82 Beyer Speed Figure (eight point improvement) and the fourth-place finisher earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure (five point improvement) in his next start. Despite the long layoff, TILTED TOWERS has returned with a series of strong drills at Los Alamitos capped off by 59 second move from the gate on July 18 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “strong from the gate with Foster Boi going better than mate in 59. Big series for return.” He earned above average Moss Pace Figure for the first quarter of a mile (+4) and red coded TimeformUS pace figure for that lone race and she is projected to be the field’s pacesetter in this field. In a field where the morning line favorite is trying the turf for the first time and the second choice exits subpar race, TILTED TOWERS is a new face where strong series of B workouts according to National Turf workout report and early speed to make him dangerous on the front end under new rider Abel Cedillo. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (8) TILTED TOWERS at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #5 Mystery Man, #6 Highly Distorted, and #10 Colossal Storm. Small reverse. 

Pick 3 part-wheel: #5 Mystery Man, #6 Highly Distorted, #8 Tilted Towers, #10 Colossal Storm with #10 Zimba Warrior with #10 Guitty, #3 Laura’s Light, #9 Warren’s Showtime

Race 8: ZIMBA WARRIOR (#10, 6-1)

The morning line favorite Hidden Promise exits a second-place finish versus older rivals in a $30,000 N2L claiming event beaten a head. However that race visually was not as impressive as the finish position and beaten margin would indicate. The Blame gelding enjoyed a perfect trip stalking in third in the clear as the eventual winner Queen’s Mason pressed a slow early pace that earned below average Moss Pace Figures (-7, -5) and blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He ranged up alongside the winner at the top of the stretch to poke his head in front past mid-stretch and was out finished towards the wire to lose by a head showing lack of gameness in the stretch. In addition, the form of that race matched my visual impression of that race as it has produced five horses to return and all five horses including the winner returned to finish off the board with four of those runners regressed in their Beyer Speed Figures. The gamble is that It's That Time will flee from post position two and Antitheical will press him from the outside to set up for the late kick of ZIMBA WARRIOR who drops into a claiming only event for the first time. I will draw a line through his most recent debacle where he trailed throughout in the one mile Alcatraz Stakes on the turf behind the winner Kanderel who returned to run second behind the favorite Hit It A Bomb in the opening day Oceanside Stakes. The Khozan colt sprinted in his two previous starts and each start would be good enough to win this event. The last time he sprinted on the main track was on May 25 at Santa Anita where he rallied from last in a five horse field to be second behind Ragtime Blue who was able to enjoy an uncontested lead through moderate early fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (-3, -3). Although the race only produced one next out winner in Mo Hawk, the run backs of the entrants in this field prove the race was better than the 79 Beyer Speed Figure it earned. The winner earned a 83 Beyer Speed Figure (four point improvement) finishing second in Laz Berrera Stakes behind sprint specialist Colliusion Illusion and the third thru fifth place finishers improved their Beyer Speed Figures by ten, eight, and eighteen points respectively in their next start. Before that runner-up performance, this Keith Desormeaux trainee ran second behind the best of speed winner Jive Talkin in Allowance N1X on the tapeta at Golden Gate where he rallied for second against a strong speed bias. This is a significant drop in class as the previous time he ran for a claiming tag on May 25 that race was an Allowance event with Optional Claiming price of $80,000 and this race is restricted to claiming only. Jockey Kent Desormeaux knows this colt having ridden him in four of ten starts and this chesnut has back class having finished third behind subsequent UAE 2000 Guineas winner Fore Left as a two-year old and was third behind eventual Grade 1 Haskell winner Authentic in the Grade 3 Sham at the beginning of the year. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (10) ZIMBA WARRIOR at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #2 It’s That Time and #7 Antitheical. No reverse. 

Small Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #3 Hidden Promise. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #10 Zimba Warrior with #10 Guitty, #3 Laura’s Light, #9 Warren’s Showtime

Race 9: GUITTY (#10, 20-1)

I do not have knocks on the two morning line favorites Laura’s Light and Warren’s Showtime except for the price they are expected to be at post time. Outside of the price aspect there is one entrant in this field that ran behind those two rivals that was compromised by consecutive bad trips that with a clean trip she deserves a chance to turn the tables at what should be a giant price. GUITTY flashed ability in her first two starts here at Del Mar over this same one-mile trip before she went off form at the end of last year. She returned from a sixty-nine day layoff in the China Doll Stakes on March 7 and finished sixth in a bunched field that saw the first ten separated by five lengths but GUITTY did not have the best of trips. She broke from post twelve in a thirteen horse field and found herself three wide into and around the first turn and raced that wide on the backstretch. The Leonard Powell trainee found herself in traffic issues on the far turn running three wide and had her momentum briefly stalled behind a wall of rivals entering the stretch, angled five wide at the top of the stretch, split rivals, and finished well to lose by less than three-lengths. The extent of her bad trip is reflected in Trakus as she covered 35 feet more than the winner Warren’s Showtime. She stretched out an additional furlong in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes on May 30 and did not get the best of rides by jockey Brice Blanc. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she was “forced in at the break and took up linking up with the course proper, traveled keenly at the rear of the field, taken three-wide by her pilot approaching the half-mile pole, circled the field into the far turn, kept coming three-wide in the far turn, carried five-wide into the lane, bid to midstretch, in tight and steadied, flipped onto her wrong lead, plodded to the wire.” After consecutive bad trips, she switches to new rider Juan Hernandez who was aboard the Powell trained Proud Pedro (July 24, 2020, $21) to win Allowance N2X going 1-⅜ miles on the turf yesterday and GUITTY has really blossomed since returning to Del Mar according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. She has worked twice over the Del Mar turf course both B+ moves with her July 7 work in 49 seconds flat Andy commented “full of run in this solo move rolling home with a strong pull in 25.2, 49.0 (23.3 LQ). Feeling great down here.” With the dedicated front runner in Cheermeister and morning line favorite Laura’s Light not too far behind, the pace should be honest for GUITTY’s late kick. At her morning line and with a clean trip, the gamble is she can turn the tables on her aforementioned rivals to spring the major upset in the San Clemente. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (10) GUITTY at 10-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #3 Laura’s Light and #9 Warren’s Showtime. Small reverse.