Race 7: PROUD PEDRO (#6, 12-1)
The morning line favorite and the deserving one is United who comes into this race having won three straight since narrow defeats in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf and Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup. The son of Giant’s Causeway has really benefited from ideal trips in each of his three wins as he stalked a very fast early pace to enough red coded TimeformUS pace figures in Grade 2 San Marcos on February 1, launched a wide run to grab the lead between horses past mid-stretch and held off the late run of Cleopatra’s Strike and Oscar Dominguez in a race that saw the five horses behind him return to finish second, third, and three off the board finishes. In his next two starts, he sat perfect pace prompting a trip in second behind moderate early pace in the Grade 2 Whittingham and Eddie Read, took the lead in deep stretch, and held off the late run of Rockemperor and Sharp Samurai respectively. He makes his third race off a 112 day layoff and he is no standout from a speed figure standpoint as his last race 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure does not give him an advantage over the rest of the field and he will have to concede anywhere from three to seven pounds. Instead my choice was visually impressive in his only start at today’s mile and three-eighths trip and owns a devastating late kick.
PROUD PEDRO has improved as a four-year old with two victories from four starts and has thrived since stretching out to a mile and a quarter and longer. The Pedro the Great colt finished in front of subsequent Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano winner Red King in his first start at ten furlongs on February 23 at Santa Anita where he raced in traffic between rivals in the two path around both turns, angled three wide at the top of the stretch, rallied to grab the lead past mid-stretch and held off the late bid of long shot Farquhar to win by three-quarters of a length. He returned from a 89 day layoff and delivered a rare sub par performance finishing last in an eight horse field as Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated this was a “very puzzling performance from the usually sure-fire Powell trainee.” This was a stronger than normal Allowance N2X as the winner returned to win the Oceanside Stakes with 87 Beyer Speed Figure, sixth-place finisher Kazan returned to win $40,000 claiming event with 89 Beyer Speed Figure, and fifth place finisher Order and Law returned two starts later to win at this same class level with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. The Leonard Powell trainee returned from a brief 63 day freshening at today’s distance and was a visually impressive winner that is not described in his 93 Beyer Speed Figure. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “broke a touch slow, ambling on his own rhythm at the back 4 lengths down, coiling up turning for home, wheeling out for the stretch, producing a sustained kick, making the front in the final strides.” What makes this performance excellent was he rallied from fifth and last behind a very slow early pace earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures where he was the only horse to rally against the grain of the race shape as North County Guy prompted this tepid pace in second. He earned a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure which is the highest last race speed figure in this field and only one point behind United’s best speed figure. He smoked his last three-eighths in 34.60 seconds and the lack of pace he found in his last start should be present with longshots Big Buzz going for the early lead pressed by outclassed New Year on or near the front end. He has come back with two works including a “leg stretching,” half mile maintenance move in 50.2 on August 15 according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker. Juan Hernandez remains in the irons and he can duplicate his Allowance N2X win in this race getting seven pounds from the favorite United he can spring an upset in the opening leg of the late Pick 5.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (6) PROUD PEDRO at 8-1 or better
Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #5 Ward N Jerry and #7 Red King.
Small Exacta: #7 Red King with #6 Proud Pedro.
Race 8: KERSHAW (#8, 9-2)
The morning line favorite belongs to Extra Hope who will make his four-year old seasonal debut off a 273 day layoff. The son of Shanghai Bobby was last seen finishing second behind the gate to wire winner Midcourt in last November’s Grade 3 Native Diver Handicap at mile and an eighth in a race that saw the first two finishers run first and second at each call as the race developed at slow pace according to the Moss Pace Figures (-4,-5). The Richard Mandella trainee has returned to work splendidly over the Del Mar main track with three consecutive B workouts according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker. The concern from this corner is the effect of the extended layoff have to do with his fitness for this race as trainer Richard Mandella has won at 30% rate (3-for-10) in the past five years with his dirt starters returning off a 250 to 300 day layoff but those three wins were at six furlongs (twice) and six and a half furlongs and the lone route start was Belle Hill who finished sixth at 3-1 returning off a 260 day layoff. His uncoupled entrymate, Take the One O One, I will use as one of my contenders but the top choice has shown better than looked form in his previous two starts that makes him good value play against the two favorites.
KERSHAW has not visited the winner circle since February 23 at today’s distance when he won at this same Allowance N2X class level going gate to wire. Since that race, he has managed to hit the board only once in four subsequent starts but two of them I am going to draw a line right through. He finished off the board on a wet fast and sealed main track on April 19 at Oaklawn where he battled with pace rival Shang through fast fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures (+11,+6) and tired to finish sixth on a surface he proved in his three previous starts he detest a off track. His other off the board finish was in the San Juan Capistrano on turf where he failed to hit the board in his previous start and he was used as a rabbit for his uncouple stablemate and eventual winner Red King. In his fourth place finish behind Ax Man on May 16 he suffered a wide trip as he was parked two to three wide around the first turn, four wide down the backstretch, launched a four wide run to loom outside of the first two finishers at the top of the stretch, and flattened out on his run at mid-stretch to be fourth where the first two finishers ran second and first at each call with Kershaw losing ground throughout in a tough trip. His other better than looked effort was his last start when he returned to the level of his lone win this year but was risked for the optional claiming price of $62,500 on July 25 where he ran much better than the Inside game 3rd comment found in your past performances. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, this son of Run Away and Hide was “sent to show speed then stalked inside around the first turn, tracked down the backstretch, ridden along around the far turn, had a huge opening to rally through into the drive, dead aim, not good enough.” This was a faster than average Allowance N2X that saw the winner Dark Vader earn a 95 Beyer Speed Figure but what makes this effort better than looked was the bias he was up against. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the outside lanes were clearly best on July 25 and Kershaw was pinned on this bad rail throughout while the winner raced off the rail in the two or three path and runner up had three to four wide trip throughout as Kershaw was clearly compromised by the bias. He has come back with two decent B- works according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker and finds a field without a lot of front running early speed as Take the One O One is the field’s clear pacesetter. From his outside draw, Kershaw should get a great trip pressing or stalking the pacesetter in the clear and return to his winning ways at a hint of a price for trainer Phil D’Amato.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (8) KERSHAW at 7-2 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #4 Take the One O One, #3 Potantico.
Small Exacta: #4 Take the One O One with #8 Kershaw.
Race 9: GUITTY (#11, 8-1)
This race has all the markings from a pace standpoint as the Honeymoon Stakes on May 30 at Santa Anita run at this exact same distance of 1-⅛ miles. That race the winner and today’s morning line favorite, Laura’s Light, sat in second behind the runaway speed horse Parkour who sped through very fast fractions earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures and according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “reeled in the leader in the far turn, swept to the lead past mid stretch, drifted on to the fence in deep stretch, and just held.” She projects to get a similar trip on Saturday but one rival did not get the cleanest of trips in that same common race and was second to her in the San Clemente will enjoy the stretch out to additional eighth of a mile.
GUITTY was my top choice in the San Clemente when her late rally fell three-quarters of a length short behind Laura’s Light and she returned to face that rival for the fifth time in her career. Before jockey Juan Hernandez took over in the irons, this French bred daughter of Dunkerque was her own worst enemy by her fifth place finish behind Laura’s Light in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes at today’s nine furlong distance. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she was “forced in at the break and took up linking up with the course proper, traveled keenly at the rear of the field, taken three-wide by her pilot approaching the half-mile pole, circled the field into the far turn, kept coming three-wide in the far turn, carried five-wide into the lane, bid to mid stretch, in tight and steadied, flipped onto her wrong lead, plodded to the wire. The Powell trainee is likely around at the finish with a more patient ride.” Based off this troubled trip, a cut back to one mile, and the likelihood of a very fast pace set by the expected leader Cheermesiter with Laura’s Light not too far behind that brisk pace, Guitty was my top select at 20-1 in the San Clemente and she fell three-quarters of a length short behind her aforementioned rival. The Handicapper’s Report clocker gave her a B for her July 7 move in 49 flat and she ran to her work and better as the Handicapper’s Report trip notes stated “trailed two-deep, came out around the far turn, picked off horses quickly leaving that bend, continued a sustained rally in the stretch, drifted out a bit, couldn’t get to the winner, second best” covering her last quarter of a mile in a field’s best 22.90 seconds and lost nothing in defeat. She did have a fast pace to close into as the early fractions saw it earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures but she projects to get another fast pace as Parkour will flee from post position nine to go for the lead while chased by Laura’s Light and the sprinter stretching out Aqua Seafoam Shame not too far behind and this anticipated fast pace will benefit Guiity who owns the TimeformUS best late pace rating in this field. She has returned with only one work a 47.4 half mile spin on August 13 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave the very rare A- stating “looked fantastic in this faster than given half mile turf work around the dogs, going off in 12.2, flying around the far turn, passing the 1/4 pole in 23.3 (11.1 around a turn with the dogs up), she was not asked in the stretch, up in 46.4, a really sharp work, it appears the three-year-old grass filly is coming up to a corker.” Juan Hernandez remains in the irons and with her late kick and proven form over the Del Mar turf course, GUITTY is the best value play in the Del Mar Oaks.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (11) GUITTY at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #11 with #3 Miss Extra, #8 Neige Blanche. Small reverse for each.
Race 10: HIGHER POWER (#2, 3-1)
The highlight of the Del Mar meeting the Pacific Classic sees the rematch of the first three finishers of the San Diego Handicap with Maximum Security assign the role of morning line favorite at 1-1. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “the New Year’s Day colt led early, relinquished the lead around the first turn, stalked down the backstretch, came under a ride two-deep past the half-mile pole, all-out around the far turn and into the lane, caught the leader past mid stretch, put his head in front, just won the bob.” That was his first start off a 147 day layoff and for trainer Bob Baffert. He has certainly trained like a colt that will move forward in his second start for his Hall of Fame trainer with his last two works over the Del Mar main track a B+ according to Handicapper’s Report clocker including his seven furlong move in 1:25.2 that the clocker stated “much better than he was before the San Diego, he appears to be handling the track much better in preparation for the Pacific Classic.” I am not concerned with his ability or gameness but rather if today’s ten furlong distance is what he really wants at this stage of his career. His two most visually impressive efforts happened around one turn in the Bold Ruler at seven furlongs and Grade 1 Cigar Mile over last year’s Grade 1 BC Dirt Mile winner Spun to Run. As mentioned with Kershaw’s analysis, July 25 saw the main track favoring horses that raced on the outside paths and Maximum Security raced in the three paths from the beginning of the backstretch to the wire. I believe one horse is primed for a repeat victory in the same race he won by five and a quarter lengths and will look for a better trip than in San Diego.
HIGHER POWER has not visited the winner’s circle since last year’s Pacific Classic where he scored a 9-1 upset over these exact same conditions. The son of 2003 Pacific Classic runner up, Medaglia D’Oro is slowly rounding into form for trainer John Sadler as his two starts off a 133 day layoff indicate he is primed for a winning effort. After his debacle in the Pegasus World Cup, he made his return in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup on June 6 where he received his ideal trip tracking the leader Brown Storm and the favored pace pressing winner Improbable in the three path for the majority of the race sitting just off moderate fractions. He began to be worked on midway on the far turn as Improbable began to spurt away from the field and this bay five-year old chased home that winner finishing well clear of the rest of the field in a highly rated (105 Beyer Speed Figure) that ranks as the fourth fastest races at more than a mile this year and the figure was validated when Improbable returned to win the Grade 1 Whitney with a 106 Beyer Speed Figure. He was training in respectable matter for the Grade 2 San Diego on July 25 with three consecutive B- workouts according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker but the distance would be an issue as his two best races in the past year were at today’s mile and a quarter distance and Higher Power figures to be in trouble at this shorter trip. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “tracked inside early, moved up and angled out to press the pace and try to put the winner in a box onto the backside, stalked again inside passing the 5/8 pole, outrun leaving the far turn, dropped back in the stretch, distant third.” He was compromised by race riding tactics as jockey Flavien Prat attempted to put the favorite into an uncomfortable position into the backstretch moving early and was forced to race on the rail on a main track that strongly favored outside paths that afternoon. He stretches out to his preferred distance and has trained better for this event with three straight B workouts according to Handicapper’s Report clocker with the comment “a good work for the classy sort, who will be pointed for the Pacific Classic.” I expect the tactics will be Victor Espinoza on Midcourt hustling his mount to the lead with Maximum Security glued to his flank in second. Flavien Prat will be chasing or pressing the pace in the three paths into the first turn and if he can duplicate last year’s win in this year’s Pacific Classic he can give the favorite only the second time he has crossed the wire defeated in a race as my BEST BET on the card.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (2) HIGHER POWER at 2-1 or better.
No other plays.
Race 11: SHADOW SPHINX (#4, 7-2)
The most important part in handicapping the finale is how the early pace will shape up. The only other horse that can possibly challenge the morning line favorite, Shadow Sphinx, early is recent California bred Allowance winner Ostini and he comes off a win where he took the blinkers off July 12 and rallied from last behind a very fast early pace that earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures and won by a head. If Juan Hernandez takes back on Ostini then SHADOW SPHINX will find himself on the lead and prove to be a tough rival to run down in the finale. He won three of eleven starts as a three-year old including a win and a second in two starts over this Del Mar turf course. After splitting an eleven horse field in his only start as a four year old down the hillside turf course at Santa Anita, he did not race for the remainder of 2019 with an unknown aliment. He returned from a 510 day layoff on June 20 where he ran in a Starter Allowance with optional claiming price of $32,000 where he was risked for the claiming tag in his first start off the extended layoff and he came back better than ever with a convincing victory versus an overmatched field. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “settled just off the pacesetter, traveled beautifully down the backstretch, bore down on the leader in the far turn, took command at the head of the lane, shifted in, kicked away, ridden out.” He earned the field’s top last race 89 Beyer and 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure and what makes that victory more impressive was he pressed the leader Blackout through very fast fractions to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures that took its toll on the leader as he weakened to finish ninth and last beaten seventeen lengths with Shadow Sphinx won the early battle for the lead and won the war. He returns off a two month freshening with seven workouts none more impressive than his five furlong move in 59.2 on August 2 on this turf course with last year’s Queen Plate winner One Bad Boy that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B+ stating “not asked, appearing best in 59.2, an excellent work for the recent winner, who is on top of his game, tab for another huge effort,” making their Fit and Ready list for today. There is not a lot of front running early speed that can challenge this Richard Baltas trained son of Pioneer of the Nile and he should easily make the lead passing the finish line for the first time and make every pole a winning one as the probable post time favorite in a race that will conclude the mandatory Pick 6 and late Pick 5.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (4) SHADOW SPHINX at 9-5 or better.
Trifecta part-wheel: 4 with 2,5,6 with 2,3,5,6,7,9,10 = $18 for a $1 Wager
Trifecta part-wheel: 4 with 2,3,5,6,7,9,10 with 2,5,6 = $9 for a $0.50 Wager
Del Mar Race 7 Pick 5
Race 7: (6) Proud Pedro, (7) Red King
Race 8: (4) Take the One O One, (8) Kershaw
Race 9: (3) Miss Extra, (8) Neige Blanche, (11) Guitty
Race 10: (2) HIGHER POWER
Race 11: (4) SHADOW SPHINX
Main Ticket: 6,7 with 4,8 with 3,8,11 with 2 with 4 = 2 x 2 x 3 x 1 x 1 x $1.50 = $18
Del Mar Race 8 Pick 3
Race 8: (4) Take the One O One, (8) Kershaw
Race 9: (3) Miss Extra, (8) Neige Blanche, (11) Guitty
Race 10: (2) HIGHER POWER
Main Ticket: 4,8 with 3,8,11 with 2 = 2 x 3 x 1 x $2 = $12
Del Mar Race 9 Pick 3
Race 9: (3) Miss Extra, (8) Neige Blanche, (11) Guitty
Race 10: (2) HIGHER POWER
Race 11: (4) SHADOW SPHINX
Main Ticket: 3,8,11 with 2 with 4 = 3 x 1 x 1 x $4 = $12
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