Silardi Returns to His Preferred Trip in Competitive Turf Sprint Allowance

 Race 5: STARSHIP CHEWBACA (#2, 8-1) 

Going into his career debut, there are reasons to understand why STARSHIP CHEWBACA was sent off at $114.30-1 in his first start on July 24 at Del Mar. He is trained by Howard Zucker who was winless in seven starts with first time starters making their debut in maiden claiming dirt sprints in the past five years. His pedigree is just ordinary out of the Danzig stallion U.S. Ranger who was Group 1 placed in the Darley July Cup and Prix de la Foret as a four year old and as stallion has produced 11% winners. She is by the dam Visual Threat who has produced seven starters with four winners including Visual Intensity (5-for-15) and Native Treasure (10-for-52). He was training towards his debut in below average fashion as National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented about his five furlong move in 1:01 ⅘ on July 15 with the comment “struggled under pressure while asked out in 35.4, 48.3, 101.4 Dullsville.” With all these factors a handicapper can throw out this gelding chances in his first start and when the dust settled Starship Chewbaca ran a very good race in defeat to finish fourth earning respectable 64 Beyer Speed Figure where with any improvement in his second career start could see him challenging for the win in this average $50,000 maiden claiming event where the horses dropping from maiden special weight to this class level for the first time do not scare anyone. According to the Handicapper’s Trip Notes, he was “smacked hard at the start, fighting between foes for the front, driving hard from the turn, fighting on in the stretch for 3rd, yielding late.” The early pace he challenged in that debut was a respectable one that was close to par for this class level and he defeated more than half the field to the wire in a race where he missed third by less than a length. This was a good effort by the longest shot on the tote board and he can “definetly move forward in a barn not known for their early success,” suggested by the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. He has returned with four workouts over Del Mar maintrack and none caught National Turf’s Andy Harrington attention including his penultimate move on August 21 a half mile spin in 51 flat that he gave a C commenting “Struggled home in 24.3, 51.3 running uphill under some coaxing. Nothing of note.” In this case, I am going to dismiss all the workout information because of what this bay gelding showed in his only start. Hustling rider Agapito Delgadillo gets in the irons for the first time and he along with eight start trial maiden Endless Tale are the main early speed in this field and he should be right on top of the pace and as mentioned before with any improvement can land him in the winner’s circle to close out the early Pick 5 at a generous price as the both morning line favorites are just ordinary. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (2) STARSHIP CHEWBACA at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #6 Colt Fiction, #9 Hollywood’s Best. Small reverse for each. 

Race 8: AIR JOCKEY (#12, 12-1)

The two morning line favorites are ones I look to beat on the win end but their bridesmaid statuses make them ideal candidates to use in the second slot of the exacta. The morning line favorite Poise to Strike has run second in his last three starts and last time was in a ideal spot stalking two horse speed duel between Endless Tale and today’s rival U.S. Danger but when the real running began at the top of the stretch he offered no punch getting past by eventual winner Bedrock who rallied from fifth and barely held second over the pace rival Endless Tale. The second choice Most Sandisfactory exits a fifth place finish sprinting on the turf versus open maiden special weight and returns to maiden claiming company where he has finished second in four fast main track events. Instead I am going to prefer a horse that has had only one race for a maiden claiming tag in his career AIR JOCKEY showed signs of ability in his first two starts finishing third and then went off form in his last two starts as a four year old. He returned from a 203 day layoff as a five year old on May 5, 2019 in a one mile turf event and he finished tenth and last in a race I will draw a line through because of distance and surface did not suit him plus the extended break would suggest he was going to need a race. The son of Cyclotron returned off a 448 day layoff and dropped for a claiming tag for the first time on July 26 in a dirt sprint and finished sixth splitting the field beaten nine lengths won by Big Cheddar who earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure that is above par for this class level and indicates this was a better than average $20,000 claiming race (67 Beyer par). According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “worked to midfield along the inside, kept moving forward past the half-mile pole, raced into traffic, in a bit tight between horses, tapped on the brakes, failed to re-engage when clear, ran in place to the wire.” Not only was Air Jockey was going to need this race off more than a year layoff but he was attempting to stalk and pounce over a main track that featured a strong outside/speed bias and this gelding was stuck on the slower inside part of the main track attempting to rally behind a slow early pace won by the pace pressing winner. The Karen Headley trainee now makes his second start off the long layoff and goes from the rail to the outermost post position eleven in an eleven horse field with the addition of blinkers for the first time. He has returned with three workouts including a visually impressive five furlong move in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+ stating “Best drill to date breezing late after showing speed in 100.1. Big move in here.” Ruben Fuentes remains in the irons and with his outside draw and new blinkers I expect an improved effort that is good enough to spring the upset to start the late Pick 4. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (12) AIR JOCKEY at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #12 with #3 Poise to Strike, #6 Most Sandisfactory. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: (12) AIR JOCKEY with (5) SILARDI, (6) BRICKYARD RIDE, (8) THANKS MR. EIDSON. 

Race 9: SILARDI (#5, 12-1)

The tepid morning line favorite, Devil Made Me Do It, returns off a 246 day layoff where he broke his maiden on opening day of the winter Santa Anita meet under ideal circumstances versus a sub-par field. He established a pressured early pace through slow fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures (-6,0) and kicked away in a race where the slow early pace resulted in the first four finishers ran first, second, third, and fourth at every call and the five horses that returned from that race are a combined 15/0-1-3 since that race. The second choice and the most likely pacesetter Brickyard Ride is one of the fastest horses on this circuit as he set a kamikaze early pace as the beaten favorite on July 31, led to the eighth pole, and was collared by the off the pace runners in a race that saw the first two finishers rally from eighth and third early. He will face pace pressure or run faster than normal with Devil Made Me Do It and Cruel Intentions in this field. The horse that can get an ideal stalk and pounce trip and is competitive on speed figures is SILARDI who exits a last place finish on August 2 but I can find excuses for his last two starts. In that aforementioned start he lost all chance when he fell to his knees at the start behind the impressive gate to wire Microrithms who returned to win again on August 29. On opening day he flashed speed to set a pressured pace in the one-mile Oceanside Stakes on turf and weakened badly to finish ninth at a distance that did not suit him. He is a turf sprinting specialist as he is undefeated in two starts sprinting on the turf including his maiden win on May 23 where he defeated five next out winners including sixth place finisher Vertical Threat who recently won the Smiling Tiger Stakes and will run next in the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby undercard. He faced winners for the first time at this class level on June 20 and emerged victorious earning 86 Beyer Speed Figure that matches Brickyard Ride’s speed figure on that same card. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “stalked the pace three-deep, loomed boldly four-wide past the quarter-pole, laid in repeatedly to midstretch, changed leads, dove late, up in time.” This was not a strong race as it produced one runner-up effort and five off the board finishes but he showed the ability to sit off the pace and finish and that style will be on display in this field with Brickyard Ride the field’s pacesetter. He returns to the class level of that victory but is in for the $40,000 claiming price and is reunited with Ruben Fuentas who was aboard for that ninth place finish on opening day but that was around two turns and this is a sprint and in the past year he has connected at 29% (7-for-24) with trainer Peter Miller. The bay gelding by City Zip should tucked into a perfect stalking trip in third and produce a late kick similar to his June 20 victory at a generous price. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) SILARDI at 8-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #6 Brickyard Ride, #8 Thanks Mr. Eidson. Small reverse for each. 

Race 11: DISAPPEARING ACT (#8, 8-1)

I have two strong notes in the finale and it concerns horses that exit the July 11 and August 8 turf maiden events. The note for both fields is to throw out the horses exiting those events. In the July 11 turf route won by Resarcio the first seven horses were separated by only four lengths at the wire and from the eight horses that returned it has produced one runner-up effort and seven off the board finishes. That will eliminate two of the entrants in this field, Vegas Palm and Nurse Goodbody. Six of the entrants in today’s field exit the August 8 maiden race won by Noble Hearted where the first nine horses were separated by only three lengths at the wire and visual impression was matched by the below average 70 Beyer Speed Figure (Beyer par 76). That race has produced one winner and one runner-up effort from three starters to run back but those two horses shipped to Golden Gate and the one winner earned a 66 Beyer Speed Figure (five point improvement) in her maiden victory. I wanted a fresh face and landed on DISAPPEARING ACT who makes her first start off a 309 day layoff and is bred to adore routing on the turf being by Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Magician. She made her career debut on September 1 sprinting on the turf at Woodbine where she was not quick from the gate and settled in the two path between rivals down the backstretch, remained in the same spot around the far turn behind rivals, angled four wide at mid-stretch, and closed well under her own power behind the loose on the lead winner Egyptian Nights who set a slow pace earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures and defeated two next out winners in Cool Shadows and Roman D’Oro who earned Beyer Speed Figures of 68 (four point improvement) and 67 (ten point improvement) respectively. She was bet down to the 4-5 favorite in her first start on the Poly Track on October 26 and did not have the cleanest of trips being forced to race wide throughout and chased a fast pace set by the eventual runner up and next out winner Mustn’t Grumble and weakened to ninth defeating one horse to the wire. I am going to draw a line through that race because of the trip and surface. She will make her first start for trainer Richard Baltas off a layoff of 309 days and this barn is proficient with returnees going long on the turf. Bob and Jackie (July 11, 2020, $8.20-1), Desert Stone (January 4, 2020, $7.10-1), Shadow Sphinx (June 20, 2020, $1.80-1), and Peace Pipe (June 19, 2020, $17.00-1) all returned from layoffs between 196 to 510 days and won off the long layoff a pattern that Disappearing Act will attempt to follow. She has recorded nine workouts from June 23 at San Luis Rey Downs and gets top rider Abel Cedillo in the irons. At a price for a trainer that does well with turf comebackers, bred for the trip, and a fresh face in a field where the ones that have run are below average, Disappearing Act can score the upset in the finale. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (8) DISAPPEARING ACT at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #6 Acoustic Shadow, #11 Awesome Ella. Small reverse for each.

  

Law Abiding Citizen Figures to Enjoy Easier Pace Scenario in Pat O' Brien

 Race 7: OVER ATTRACTED (#4, 6-1)

Three of the eight entrants exit the Allowance N1X race won by Moonhill Milly on August 8 and I am playing against those three in this event. The field in that race was bunched at the wire with the first six finishers seperated by only one length at the wire. The morning line favorite Croughavouke also exits the Grade 2 San Clemente but she is a filly that has ideal race cirumstances in her last two starts where she had a fast pace to set up her late rally and she has fallen short. TimeformUS pace projector predicts this race will unfold to favor horses on or near the early lead and that situation will help OVER ATTRACTED in her third start in North America and for Carla Gaines barn. She was dismissed as the longest shot on the board at 13-1 in her North America debut on June 12 and could not get by the winner Shines Her Light who got first run and this daughter of Atredies finished two lengths in front of Harvest Moon who won her next three starts including Grade 3 Torrey Pines last Saturday with a career best 90 Beyer Speed Figure. That race gave her connections to enter her next in the Grade 2 San Clemente on July 25 and she ran eighth beaten 5-¼ lengths where visually she did not have a real excuse. She was able to save ground into the first turn and down the backstretch as the pacesetter Cheermeister set a fast pace to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures, she moved up closer to loom outside of rivals three to four wide at the top of the stretch, and flattened out through the lane to be eighth. Today she finds a field where she is projected to be close to the expected leader, Big Sweep, in second or third early in a race that is not loaded with the plethora of early speed that she found last time out. In addition she has returned three works including her penultimate work on August 18 in a bullet 59 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B+ stating she “took off at the 4f pole going easily to the top in 24.3 then flew home in 47.1 (22.3) breezing out to the 7f pole in 59.2. Stepping way up out of last.” In a race where the favorites look vulnerable this race looks ripe for fresh faces that should benefit from the expected race flow. 

Wagering Strategies:

Play the (4) OVER ATTRACTED to WIN at 7-2 or higher. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #5 Big Sweep. Small reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: (4) OVER ATTRACTED, (5) BIG SWEEP with (7) DESERT LAW. 

Race 8: DESERT LAW (#7, 6-1)

He is making his third start following a 322 day layoff and DESERT LAW is slowly rounding into form even though he has managed to hit the board only once in his two starts and exits an eighth place finish beaten 10-½ lengths in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby. Despite not visiting the winner's circle in two starts, each start was better than his finish position would indicate as he affected race dynamics in each start. The Desert Code gelding returned from a 322 day layoff in the restricted Thor’s Echo Stakes on June 22 and he picked up the pieces for third behind his stable mate Tiger Dad. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, Desert Law “stalked inside, could not keep up and fell back to last past the half-mile pole, fell further back around the far turn, came out into the stretch, passed a couple of horses late for the show, drifting out badly on the gallop out. He might have needed this, but this was not a good effort.” He needed this race off the layoff but he was also compromised by a slow pace as his stablemate, Tiger Dad, was able to press a very slow early pace according to the Moss Pace Figures (-8,-2) and earned a blue coded TimeformUS pace figure in the process. This third place finish was nothing more than a prep for the Grade 1 Bing Crosby as he ran second in that event last year and he was bet down to the fourth choice in this year’s event where he finished last in a eight horse field but this finish position was the result of a kamikaze speed duel that set up perfectly for the first two finishers who rallied from seventh and eighth after the first quarter of a mile. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, Desert Law found himself dueling “2-wide on the lead, faltering by the ¼ pole, quickly retreating from the fight.” He was part of a five horse speed duel that battled through above average fractions earning Moss Pace Figures (+13,+8) and earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures in the process with the third and fourth place finisher deserve credit for staying to the wire as they were part of that brutal pace. The Desert Code gelding is making his third race into his form cycle and is drawn beautifully towards the outside of his two main pace rivals in Microrithms and McKale who both are trained by Bob Baffert and are up for the $80,000 optional claiming price. He comes into this race with two works including a visually impressive half mile spin in 47 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B+ stating “big with Tiger Dad matching strides in 22.3, 47.0. Could not separate them here.” Juan Hernandez takes over in the irons and he has tactical speed to get a forwardly placed trip and this five-time winner should appreciate the drop in class into this Allowance N3X. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (7) DESERT LAW at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #7 with #6 Tiger Law. Small reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: (7) DESERT LAW with (10) KAZAN

Race 9: KAZAN (#10, 12-1)

The old adage horse for course and even distance specialist is true for our top choice in this Allowance N2X, KAZAN. The five year old Shanghai Bobby gelding has raced on the Del Mar turf course nine times with seven in the money finishes with six of them in the top two and half of those six wins were at today’s 1-1/16 distance on this course. As a three-year old, he broke his maiden, won an Allowance N1X, and then ran second at 50-1 in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby in three starts at the 2018 Del Mar meet. He is making his third race following 84 day layoff and he appears primed for another winning performance over his favorite turf course as his two races off the layoff are better than the previous one. In his first start off the layoff, Kazan did not get the smoothest of trips finishing sixth in a “key” race field on May 22 at Santa Anita. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “settled at the tail of the field, labored under a drive heading into the far turn, bid into contention at the head of the lane, rallied into traffic, angled out repeatedly, one-paced when clear.” This was above average field as the winner and eighth place finishers returned to win earning Beyer Speed Figures of 87 and 93 respectively. He returned to his favorite turf couse at Del Mar almost two months later and scored the victory at 1-1 favorite despite a slow pace set by Big Buzz. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the dark bay or brown gelding “trailed early on, passed the back markers inside midway down the backstretch, behind horses with run leaving the far turn to midstretch, angled out near midstretch, finished best to hit the front late, inched away the final strides.” He covered his final 5/16ths in a field best 29.17 seconds and did so despite Big Buzz setting a slow pace earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figure in the process. He will make his first start off the claim for Javier Sierra a barn that has only one winner this meet but he protects Kazan in a spot where he cannot be claim, a positive sign and National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave positive comment about his six furlong move in 1:12.4 on August 16 stating “big step up but looked willing for new barn going 24.2, 112.4 while just pointed in the right direction late.” The trainer and jockey team combined on Friday with 11-1 upset winner East Rand going 1-1/16 miles on the turf from post ten in an eleven horse field and they can complete a double with this course and distance specialist at a generous price.

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (10) KAZAN at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #1 Gregorian Chant, #9 Border Town. Small reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: (10) KAZAN with (1) LAW ABIDING CITIZEN.  

Race 10: LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN (#1, 5-1)

As mentioned in my eighth race analysis, I upgraded the efforts of the third and fourth place finishers of the Grade 1 Bing Crosby on August 1 because of the kamikaze early fractions that battled through. LAW ABINDIN CITIZEN and his pace rival Wildman Jack are the two horses that held on very well through this fast fractions as the first two finishers Collusion Illusion and Lexitonian rallied from seventh and eighth. This Twirling Candy gelding stretches out an additional eighth of a mile to seven furlongs and finds a field that does not contain any of the early speed he found in his last start. The Mark Glatt trainee last visited the winner’s circle on June 14 where he found a field that lacked early speed to emerge victorious. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “showed pace, feeling token pressure through the opening ¼ mile, shaking his pace rival in the turn, never letting the fresh challenger get on his level, working to the wire to keep clear.” This was aided by a very slow early pace as the first three finishers ran first, second, and third at each call earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-20,-4) and earning a blue coded TimeformUS pace figure in the process. Based on this slow pace win and running second prompting a moderate pace behind Ax Man in a one mile route on May 16, I thought he was an outsider in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby on August 1 and he proved me wrong with his game third place finish. In that race, he was hustled along to be on the lead battling four wide in a five horse speed duel through a 21.58 second opening quarter and continued in this intense battle three wide approaching the quarter pole through a 44.73 second half mile and was headed by Wildman Jack into the eighth pole but he battled back gamely to take over the lead only to be collared by the opportunistic closers Collision Illusion and Lexitonian who clearly benefited from this hot pace. The pace figure information can be found in the eighth race analysis and Law Abindin Citizen ran the best race in the Bing Crosby along with Wildman Jack. He returns in 28 days later and is the clear leader based on the TimeformUS pace projector in a scenario that faovrs horses on or near the lead and has held his form with an easy five furlong maintenance move on August 22 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “finishing within self for the Glatt barn.” Jockey Abel Cedillio remains in the irons and the strategy is simple: go to the front and increase your lead to the wire. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (1) LAW ABIDING CITIZEN at 2-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #5 C.Z. Rocket. Small reverse. 

Del Mar Pick 3 Race 8: 

Race 8: (6) Tiger Law, (7) DESERT LAW

Race 9: (1) Gregorian Chant, (9) Border Town, (10) KAZAN 

Race 10: (1) LAW ABIDING CITIZEN, (5) C.Z Rocket

Ticket 1: 7 with 1,9,10 with 1,5 = 1 x 3 x 2 x $1 = $6 

Ticket 2: 6,7 with 10 with 1,5    = 2 x 1 x 2 x $1 = $4 

Ticket 3: 6,7 with 1,9,10 with 1 = 2 x 3 x 1 x $1 = $6 

Total Wager: $16 

Bombard Looks Set for Upset in Del Mar Mile

 Race 6: OUTLAW (#4, 8-1)

The two morning line favorites, Mayan Warrior and Vander Khan, are stalkers that come from midpack that need a fast pace for their late kick. Mayan Warrior is the most consistent in this field having finished in the money in all four starts with two wins and he comes off a third place finish behind the gate to wire winner P.R Radio Star who was able to set a moderate early pace en route to his third straight victory. His two previous wins both came when he rallied from midpack. Vander Khan finished ahead of only one entrant when defeated by P.R. Radio Star in that same race and he ran third in his prior start behind a slow pace set by the gate to wire winner Posterize. The morning line favorites were compromised by gate to wire winner that was allowed to dictate terms on the front and today’s race sees those circumstances as OUTLAW is the quickest horse early and takes this field gate to wire under Flavien Prat. The son of Violence has finished in the money in one of five starts this year but his last two starts, one at Los Alamitos versus Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses, and last time here at Del Mar he caught fields with abundance of early speed and he will not encounter that scenario in this race. In that fourth place finish versus Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses on June 13 he found two very fast thoroughbreds in Hardcore Troubador and Rule He Will as those two opened up a four length lead on Outlaw down the backstretch and into the turn, Outlaw tipped out at the top of the stretch but offered no late kick as the winner Make it a Triple rallied from next to last in the field of five to win. He stretched out to six and a half furlongs on July 24 and he was part of a vicious speed duel that resulted in the winner, Heart Full of Stars, to rally from last to win. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, Outlaw “broke inward, fighting inside to the turn, slipping back by the ¼ pole, dropping away in the lane.” The early fractions of this race were very fast as it earned above par Moss Pace Figures (+7, +4) and the form of this early pace was flattered when the runner-up, Horse Greedy, returned to win for $22,500 claiming event duplicating his 82 Beyer Speed Figure on August 16. The gelding drops one level in class and shortens up to his preferred six furlong distance where he has yet to finish no worse than second in four starts with two wins. He has maintained his speed with two works including a best of 113 half mile spin on August 16 in 47 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Last 3f working past the line in 35.2 while let run a bit. Maybe enough.” Expect Flavien Prat to be aggressive early and take it to this field on the front end and make every pole a winning one at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) OUTLAW to WIN at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #7 I Belong to Becky, #2 More Honor, #9 Vander Kelen. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: (4) OUTLAW with (3) Synthesis, (6) Worthy Turk, (8) Hootie. 

Race 7: WORTHY TURK (#6, 4-1)

The two morning line favorites, Southern King and Hootie, are two horses that I have notes on that benefited from their recent wins this year. The morning line favorite Southern King visited the winner’s circle on the last day of the spring-summer meet at Santa Anita where he sat a perfect trip in third behind two dueling leaders, Lincoln City and Turn the Switch, on the rail for the first six furlongs, tipped out into the two path at top of the stretch, and it took the entire length of the stretch for Southern King to wear down the stubborn Lincoln City to win by a neck with the runner-up best in that race as he disputed for the early lead. Hootie exits a win over layout on July 27 where he was second to last behind a very fast pace for the first half mile that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figure and he won going away in a race that completely collapsed for closers with the first three finishers rallied from ninth, eighth, and tenth after the first half mile. One horse that finished behind Hootie and third place finisher French Getaway and could have been closer with a cleaner trip is our top choice WORTHY TURK who split the eleven horse field. This Lemon Drop Kid gelding was ultra consistent in his first two turf route starts this year with a win and second place finish before running sixth behind the pace pressing winner Shadow Sphinx on June 20 at Santa Anita where he raced in midpack behind a very fast early pace that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures, loomed up four wide into the far turn, outrun at that point while under a drive on the turn, and ran one paced to the wire to finish sixth. The Peter Miller trainee dropped in for a claiming price of $25,000 on July 27 where he was sent off as the 5-2 post time favorite and did not have the cleanest of journey according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. The chestnut gelding “traveled midfield down the backstretch, waited behind a wall of runners in the far turn, on hold to midstretch, blocked, dove inside, weaved through traffic, briefly clear, in hand across the wire.” Note that both horses that finished in front of him that return today, Hootie and French Getaway, had clear wide runs into the stretch as the latter rallied four wide and the eventual winner rallied five wide into the stretch with Worthy Turk in traffic through the entire stretch and would have been right there with a clear journey. He gets a comfortable four pound break in the weights because he has won only one race at a mile or over since May 23, 2020 and has returned with two works including impressive five furlong move in 1:00.3 on August 15 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “Nifty with Tammy's Window moving up with power in 38.1, 101.4 going 6f in 114.0. Strong out of last.” Flavien Prat remains aboard and with a clean trip I can see him turning the tables on French Getaway and Hootie in a race that starts the late Pick 5. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (6) WORTHY TURK at 5-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #3 Synthesis, #2 French Getaway, #8 Hootie. 

Small Exacta: #3 Synthesis, #8 Hootie with #6 Worthy Turk. 

Race 9: BOMBARD (#2, 10-1)

This is one of the most competitive events you will see on today’s card if you look outside of the two favorites this race is wide open. The morning line favorite Mo Forza returns from a 211 day layoff when he was last seen finishing ninth in the Pegasus World Turf Cup behind the rail skimming rally of subsequent multiple Grade 2 winner Zulu Alpha. Before that debacle, he swept Southern California three-year old turf stakes winning the Twilight Derby and Hollywood Derby. He was bothered by wide trips in his last two starts and he should not get that journey today with post position three, taking the blinkers off, and getting Flavien Prat. Despite the positive B and B+ grades from National Turf’s Andy Harrington, trainer Peter Miller does not do well with his turf route starters returning off layoffs of more than six months as he is 8/0-0-2 with his turf starters returning off a layoff between 180 to 250 days in a route race. The second choice Galilean won the restricted California Dreamin Stakes with a perfect trip over this layout on July 26. He will get support but I am looking elsewhere and landed on BOMBARD who is making his second start off 371 day layoff where he received the perfect tune up for this race with a game second place finish on July 26 sprinting on the turf that sets him up to stretch out to one mile. This seven-year old gelding has shown signs of having a versatile running style in the previous two editions of the Wickker Stakes at this one-mile distance here at Del Mar. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes from the 2018 edition of the Wickker Stakes, this son of War Front “stalked the pace two-deep, did not quicken as the winner ran by him while between horses leaving the far turn, came out four-wide into the drive, finally rallied the final stages, was bumped lightly late by the winner right near the wire, lost the photo.” In the 2019 version of that aforementioned event, the Richard Mandella trainee was able to make the early lead receiving token early pressure from his rival Double Touch, put that rival away at the top of the stretch, opened up a two length lead past mid-stretch, and held off subsequent Grade 1 Pacific Classic winner Higher Power to win by a half length. That was his last race of 2019 and he returned from more than a year layoff in Allowance N3X turf sprint on July 26 and ran very well in defeat behind the rail skimming last to first rally of Sparky Ville to lose by a head. The dark bay or brown gelding flashed good early speed to battle for the lead with the Northern Californian invader Baja Sur as those two locked up in their own little match race all the way to the top of the stretch when Baja Sur poke his head in front but Bombard battled back gamely in deep stretch to retake the lead only to get caught on the wire by Sparky Ville. He galloped out in front of the entire field after the wire as this race served as perfect prep for the stretch out to his preferred distance of one mile. He has returned with two easy maintenance works since that come back effort and draws Drayden Van Dyke for the first time who should get this gelding a ground saving stalk and pounce trip with the probable pacesetter, Kiwi’s Dream, gunning for the early lead from post position nine in this ten horse field. He is the other Richard Mandella trainee that has proven form over this Del Mar turf course and has recency advantage over the others as the best value play in the Del Mar Mile over my second preference Kiwi’s Dream. 

Wagering Strategies: 

Play the (2) BOMBARD to WIN at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #3 Galilean, #9 Overdue, #10 Kiwi’s Dream. 

Small Exacta: #10 Kiwi’s Dream with #2 Bombard.    

Daily Double part-wheel: (2) Bombard, (10) Kiwi’s Dream with (2) Jamming Eddy

Race 10: JAMMING EDDY (#2, 6-1)

The two morning line favorites are vulnerable in this Allowance N1X as Julius has yet to taste defeat in his previous two starts here at Del Mar but those wins came under ideal conditions where he was loose on an uncontested lead and was allowed to dictate moderate fractions in each of those wins on July 10 and August 2. He finds quality other speed in this field where he will most likely not get the early lead that he is accustomed to. Express Train returns off a 331 day layoff where this sprint is being used a prep to stretch out as he broke his maiden by fourteen and a quarter lengths in his second career start and trainer John Shirreffs is 6/0-0-2 with his dirt starters returning off a layoff of more than 180 days in a dirt sprint indicating his starters need a race. Instead, I am going to back a dirt sprinter with recency and can cope with fast fractions and that horse is JAMMING EDDY who exits an excellent runner up effort behind the favored comebacker Microithms on August 2 and a similar performance in this race will be good enough to win. The California bred Square Eddie gelding was an easy winner at this same distance on June 7 where he fought for the early lead, shook free of his rival past the quarter pole, and was “lightly hand ridden down the lane to stay clear to the wire,” according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. This win does come with a negative factor as he set a pressured pace through very slow fractions earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-12,-3). The Peter Miller trainee shortened up an eighth of a mile to five and a half furlongs on August 2 and he ran a winning race earning a close to par 87 Beyer Speed Figure and he had to earn this speed figure the hard way. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “pressed the pace four-deep down the backstretch, loomed large past the quarter-pole, spun his wheels to deep stretch, ran at the leader late, and came up short.” The pace of this sprint was very fast as it was off the chart Moss Pace Figures (+8,+5) and two of the pace rivals that he dueled with, Oil Can Knight and Drop the Chalupa, weakened to finish fourth beaten two lengths and fifth beaten three lengths. He stretches back out to the distance of his previous win two starts back and he drawn in post position two where he is the speed of this field as the others in this field that can challenge him for the lead, Drop the Chalupa, Oil Can Knight, and Shane Zain, will not be able to survive dueling for the lead with Jamming Eddy for the first half mile. Flavien Prat remains in the saddle for the third consecutive time and I expect him to make every pole a winning one at a morning line that is too high on this gray or roan gelding. 

Wagering Strategies:

Play the (2) JAMMING EDDY to WIN at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exactas: #2 with #4 Heartfullofstars, #5 Appreciated, #10 Big Scotty Daddy. 

Small Exacta: #10 Big Scotty Daddy with #2 Jamming Eddy. 

 

Higher Power Looks for the Repeat in the Pacific Classic

 Race 7: PROUD PEDRO (#6, 12-1)

The morning line favorite and the deserving one is United who comes into this race having won three straight since narrow defeats in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf and Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup. The son of Giant’s Causeway has really benefited from ideal trips in each of his three wins as he stalked a very fast early pace to enough red coded TimeformUS pace figures in Grade 2 San Marcos on February 1, launched a wide run to grab the lead between horses past mid-stretch and held off the late run of Cleopatra’s Strike and Oscar Dominguez in a race that saw the five horses behind him return to finish second, third, and three off the board finishes. In his next two starts, he sat perfect pace prompting a trip in second behind moderate early pace in the Grade 2 Whittingham and Eddie Read, took the lead in deep stretch, and held off the late run of Rockemperor and Sharp Samurai respectively. He makes his third race off a 112 day layoff and he is no standout from a speed figure standpoint as his last race 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure does not give him an advantage over the rest of the field and he will have to concede anywhere from three to seven pounds. Instead my choice was visually impressive in his only start at today’s mile and three-eighths trip and owns a devastating late kick. 

PROUD PEDRO has improved as a four-year old with two victories from four starts and has thrived since stretching out to a mile and a quarter and longer. The Pedro the Great colt finished in front of subsequent Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano winner Red King in his first start at ten furlongs on February 23 at Santa Anita where he raced in traffic between rivals in the two path around both turns, angled three wide at the top of the stretch, rallied to grab the lead past mid-stretch and held off the late bid of long shot Farquhar to win by three-quarters of a length. He returned from a 89 day layoff and delivered a rare sub par performance finishing last in an eight horse field as Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated this was a “very puzzling performance from the usually sure-fire Powell trainee.” This was a stronger than normal Allowance N2X as the winner returned to win the Oceanside Stakes with 87 Beyer Speed Figure, sixth-place finisher Kazan returned to win $40,000 claiming event with 89 Beyer Speed Figure, and fifth place finisher Order and Law returned two starts later to win at this same class level with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. The Leonard Powell trainee returned from a brief 63 day freshening at today’s distance and was a visually impressive winner that is not described in his 93 Beyer Speed Figure. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “broke a touch slow, ambling on his own rhythm at the back 4 lengths down, coiling up turning for home, wheeling out for the stretch, producing a sustained kick, making the front in the final strides.” What makes this performance excellent was he rallied from fifth and last behind a very slow early pace earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures where he was the only horse to rally against the grain of the race shape as North County Guy prompted this tepid pace in second. He earned a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure which is the highest last race speed figure in this field and only one point behind United’s best speed figure. He smoked his last three-eighths in 34.60 seconds and the lack of pace he found in his last start should be present with longshots Big Buzz going for the early lead pressed by outclassed New Year on or near the front end. He has come back with two works including a “leg stretching,” half mile maintenance move in 50.2 on August 15 according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker. Juan Hernandez remains in the irons and he can duplicate his Allowance N2X win in this race getting seven pounds from the favorite United he can spring an upset in the opening leg of the late Pick 5. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (6) PROUD PEDRO at 8-1 or better

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #5 Ward N Jerry and #7 Red King. 

Small Exacta: #7 Red King with #6 Proud Pedro. 

Race 8: KERSHAW (#8, 9-2)

The morning line favorite belongs to Extra Hope who will make his four-year old seasonal debut off a 273 day layoff. The son of Shanghai Bobby was last seen finishing second behind the gate to wire winner Midcourt in last November’s Grade 3 Native Diver Handicap at mile and an eighth in a race that saw the first two finishers run first and second at each call as the race developed at slow pace according to the Moss Pace Figures (-4,-5). The Richard Mandella trainee has returned to work splendidly over the Del Mar main track with three consecutive B workouts according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker. The concern from this corner is the effect of the extended layoff have to do with his fitness for this race as trainer Richard Mandella has won at 30% rate (3-for-10) in the past five years with his dirt starters returning off a 250 to 300 day layoff but those three wins were at six furlongs (twice) and six and a half furlongs and the lone route start was Belle Hill who finished sixth at 3-1 returning off a 260 day layoff. His uncoupled entrymate, Take the One O One, I will use as one of my contenders but the top choice has shown better than looked form in his previous two starts that makes him good value play against the two favorites. 

KERSHAW has not visited the winner circle since February 23 at today’s distance when he won at this same Allowance N2X class level going gate to wire. Since that race, he has managed to hit the board only once in four subsequent starts but two of them I am going to draw a line right through. He finished off the board on a wet fast and sealed main track on April 19 at Oaklawn where he battled with pace rival Shang through fast fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures (+11,+6) and tired to finish sixth on a surface he proved in his three previous starts he detest a off track. His other off the board finish was in the San Juan Capistrano on turf where he failed to hit the board in his previous start and he was used as a rabbit for his uncouple stablemate and eventual winner Red King. In his fourth place finish behind Ax Man on May 16 he suffered a wide trip as he was parked two to three wide around the first turn, four wide down the backstretch, launched a four wide run to loom outside of the first two finishers at the top of the stretch, and flattened out on his run at mid-stretch to be fourth where the first two finishers ran second and first at each call with Kershaw losing ground throughout in a tough trip. His other better than looked effort was his last start when he returned to the level of his lone win this year but was risked for the optional claiming price of $62,500 on July 25 where he ran much better than the Inside game 3rd comment found in your past performances. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, this son of Run Away and Hide was “sent to show speed then stalked inside around the first turn, tracked down the backstretch, ridden along around the far turn, had a huge opening to rally through into the drive, dead aim, not good enough.” This was a faster than average Allowance N2X that saw the winner Dark Vader earn a 95 Beyer Speed Figure but what makes this effort better than looked was the bias he was up against. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the outside lanes were clearly best on July 25 and Kershaw was pinned on this bad rail throughout while the winner raced off the rail in the two or three path and runner up had three to four wide trip throughout as Kershaw was clearly compromised by the bias. He has come back with two decent B- works according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker and finds a field without a lot of front running early speed as Take the One O One is the field’s clear pacesetter. From his outside draw, Kershaw should get a great trip pressing or stalking the pacesetter in the clear and return to his winning ways at a hint of a price for trainer Phil D’Amato. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (8) KERSHAW at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #4 Take the One O One, #3 Potantico. 

Small Exacta: #4 Take the One O One with #8 Kershaw. 

Race 9: GUITTY (#11, 8-1) 

This race has all the markings from a pace standpoint as the Honeymoon Stakes on May 30 at Santa Anita run at this exact same distance of 1-⅛ miles. That race the winner and today’s morning line favorite, Laura’s Light, sat in second behind the runaway speed horse Parkour who sped through very fast fractions earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures and according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “reeled in the leader in the far turn, swept to the lead past mid stretch, drifted on to the fence in deep stretch, and just held.” She projects to get a similar trip on Saturday but one rival did not get the cleanest of trips in that same common race and was second to her in the San Clemente will enjoy the stretch out to additional eighth of a mile. 

GUITTY was my top choice in the San Clemente when her late rally fell three-quarters of a length short behind Laura’s Light and she returned to face that rival for the fifth time in her career. Before jockey Juan Hernandez took over in the irons, this French bred daughter of Dunkerque was her own worst enemy by her fifth place finish behind Laura’s Light in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes at today’s nine furlong distance. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she was “forced in at the break and took up linking up with the course proper, traveled keenly at the rear of the field, taken three-wide by her pilot approaching the half-mile pole, circled the field into the far turn, kept coming three-wide in the far turn, carried five-wide into the lane, bid to mid stretch, in tight and steadied, flipped onto her wrong lead, plodded to the wire. The Powell trainee is likely around at the finish with a more patient ride.” Based off this troubled trip, a cut back to one mile, and the likelihood of a very fast pace set by the expected leader Cheermesiter with Laura’s Light not too far behind that brisk pace, Guitty was my top select at 20-1 in the San Clemente and she fell three-quarters of a length short behind her aforementioned rival. The Handicapper’s Report clocker gave her a B for her July 7 move in 49 flat and she ran to her work and better as the Handicapper’s Report trip notes stated “trailed two-deep, came out around the far turn, picked off horses quickly leaving that bend, continued a sustained rally in the stretch, drifted out a bit, couldn’t get to the winner, second best” covering her last quarter of a mile in a field’s best 22.90 seconds and lost nothing in defeat. She did have a fast pace to close into as the early fractions saw it earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures but she projects to get another fast pace as Parkour will flee from post position nine to go for the lead while chased by Laura’s Light and the sprinter stretching out Aqua Seafoam Shame not too far behind and this anticipated fast pace will benefit Guiity who owns the TimeformUS best late pace rating in this field. She has returned with only one work a 47.4 half mile spin on August 13 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave the very rare A- stating “looked fantastic in this faster than given half mile turf work around the dogs, going off in 12.2, flying around the far turn, passing the 1/4 pole in 23.3 (11.1 around a turn with the dogs up), she was not asked in the stretch, up in 46.4, a really sharp work, it appears the three-year-old grass filly is coming up to a corker.” Juan Hernandez remains in the irons and with her late kick and proven form over the Del Mar turf course, GUITTY is the best value play in the Del Mar Oaks. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (11) GUITTY at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #11 with #3 Miss Extra, #8 Neige Blanche. Small reverse for each. 

Race 10: HIGHER POWER (#2, 3-1) 

The highlight of the Del Mar meeting the Pacific Classic sees the rematch of the first three finishers of the San Diego Handicap with Maximum Security assign the role of morning line favorite at 1-1. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “the New Year’s Day colt led early, relinquished the lead around the first turn, stalked down the backstretch, came under a ride two-deep past the half-mile pole, all-out around the far turn and into the lane, caught the leader past mid stretch, put his head in front, just won the bob.” That was his first start off a 147 day layoff and for trainer Bob Baffert. He has certainly trained like a colt that will move forward in his second start for his Hall of Fame trainer with his last two works over the Del Mar main track a B+ according to Handicapper’s Report clocker including his seven furlong move in 1:25.2 that the clocker stated “much better than he was before the San Diego, he appears to be handling the track much better in preparation for the Pacific Classic.” I am not concerned with his ability or gameness but rather if today’s ten furlong distance is what he really wants at this stage of his career. His two most visually impressive efforts happened around one turn in the Bold Ruler at seven furlongs and Grade 1 Cigar Mile over last year’s Grade 1 BC Dirt Mile winner Spun to Run. As mentioned with Kershaw’s analysis, July 25 saw the main track favoring horses that raced on the outside paths and Maximum Security raced in the three paths from the beginning of the backstretch to the wire. I believe one horse is primed for a repeat victory in the same race he won by five and a quarter lengths and will look for a better trip than in San Diego. 

HIGHER POWER has not visited the winner’s circle since last year’s Pacific Classic where he scored a 9-1 upset over these exact same conditions. The son of 2003 Pacific Classic runner up, Medaglia D’Oro is slowly rounding into form for trainer John Sadler as his two starts off a 133 day layoff indicate he is primed for a winning effort. After his debacle in the Pegasus World Cup, he made his return in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup on June 6 where he received his ideal trip tracking the leader Brown Storm and the favored pace pressing winner Improbable in the three path for the majority of the race sitting just off moderate fractions. He began to be worked on midway on the far turn as Improbable began to spurt away from the field and this bay five-year old chased home that winner finishing well clear of the rest of the field in a highly rated (105 Beyer Speed Figure) that ranks as the fourth fastest races at more than a mile this year and the figure was validated when Improbable returned to win the Grade 1 Whitney with a 106 Beyer Speed Figure. He was training in respectable matter for the Grade 2 San Diego on July 25 with three consecutive B- workouts according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker but the distance would be an issue as his two best races in the past year were at today’s mile and a quarter distance and Higher Power figures to be in trouble at this shorter trip. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “tracked inside early, moved up and angled out to press the pace and try to put the winner in a box onto the backside, stalked again inside passing the 5/8 pole, outrun leaving the far turn, dropped back in the stretch, distant third.” He was compromised by race riding tactics as jockey Flavien Prat attempted to put the favorite into an uncomfortable position into the backstretch moving early and was forced to race on the rail on a main track that strongly favored outside paths that afternoon. He stretches out to his preferred distance and has trained better for this event with three straight B workouts according to Handicapper’s Report clocker with the comment “a good work for the classy sort, who will be pointed for the Pacific Classic.” I expect the tactics will be Victor Espinoza on Midcourt hustling his mount to the lead with Maximum Security glued to his flank in second. Flavien Prat will be chasing or pressing the pace in the three paths into the first turn and if he can duplicate last year’s win in this year’s Pacific Classic he can give the favorite only the second time he has crossed the wire defeated in a race as my BEST BET on the card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (2) HIGHER POWER at 2-1 or better. 

No other plays. 

Race 11: SHADOW SPHINX (#4, 7-2)

The most important part in handicapping the finale is how the early pace will shape up. The only other horse that can possibly challenge the morning line favorite, Shadow Sphinx, early is recent California bred Allowance winner Ostini and he comes off a win where he took the blinkers off July 12 and rallied from last behind a very fast early pace that earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures and won by a head. If Juan Hernandez takes back on Ostini then SHADOW SPHINX will find himself on the lead and prove to be a tough rival to run down in the finale. He won three of eleven starts as a three-year old including a win and a second in two starts over this Del Mar turf course. After splitting an eleven horse field in his only start as a four year old down the hillside turf course at Santa Anita, he did not race for the remainder of 2019 with an unknown aliment. He returned from a 510 day layoff on June 20 where he ran in a Starter Allowance with optional claiming price of $32,000 where he was risked for the claiming tag in his first start off the extended layoff and he came back better than ever with a convincing victory versus an overmatched field. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “settled just off the pacesetter, traveled beautifully down the backstretch, bore down on the leader in the far turn, took command at the head of the lane, shifted in, kicked away, ridden out.” He earned the field’s top last race 89 Beyer and 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure and what makes that victory more impressive was he pressed the leader Blackout through very fast fractions to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures that took its toll on the leader as he weakened to finish ninth and last beaten seventeen lengths with Shadow Sphinx won the early battle for the lead and won the war. He returns off a two month freshening with seven workouts none more impressive than his five furlong move in 59.2 on August 2 on this turf course with last year’s Queen Plate winner One Bad Boy that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B+ stating “not asked, appearing best in 59.2, an excellent work for the recent winner, who is on top of his game, tab for another huge effort,” making their Fit and Ready list for today. There is not a lot of front running early speed that can challenge this Richard Baltas trained son of Pioneer of the Nile and he should easily make the lead passing the finish line for the first time and make every pole a winning one as the probable post time favorite in a race that will conclude the mandatory Pick 6 and late Pick 5. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) SHADOW SPHINX at 9-5 or better. 

Trifecta part-wheel: 4 with 2,5,6 with 2,3,5,6,7,9,10 = $18 for a $1 Wager 

Trifecta part-wheel: 4 with 2,3,5,6,7,9,10 with 2,5,6 = $9 for a $0.50 Wager

Del Mar Race 7 Pick 5

Race 7: (6) Proud Pedro, (7) Red King 

Race 8: (4) Take the One O One, (8) Kershaw 

Race 9: (3) Miss Extra, (8) Neige Blanche, (11) Guitty 

Race 10: (2) HIGHER POWER

Race 11: (4) SHADOW SPHINX 

Main Ticket: 6,7 with 4,8 with 3,8,11 with 2 with 4 = 2 x 2 x 3 x 1 x 1 x $1.50 = $18

Del Mar Race 8 Pick 3

Race 8: (4) Take the One O One, (8) Kershaw 

Race 9: (3) Miss Extra, (8) Neige Blanche, (11) Guitty 

Race 10: (2) HIGHER POWER

Main Ticket: 4,8 with 3,8,11 with 2 = 2 x 3 x 1 x $2 = $12 

Del Mar Race 9 Pick 3

Race 9: (3) Miss Extra, (8) Neige Blanche, (11) Guitty 

Race 10: (2) HIGHER POWER

Race 11: (4) SHADOW SPHINX 

Main Ticket: 3,8,11 with 2 with 4 = 3 x 1 x 1 x $4 = $12 

 

Gingham Looks for a Fast Pace in Rancho Bernardo

 Race 8: HOTITUDE (#6, 6-1)

The morning line favorite Leggs Galore exits a maiden win versus California breds on August 7 where she earned the field’s highest last race 80 Beyer Speed Figure and 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure on turf. She was able to enjoy a relatively easy trip where according to the Handicapper’s Report trip notes she “dueled two-deep early, took a short lead leaving the backstretch, kicked away around the far turn, well clear into the stretch, held sway to the wire.” She was able establish a moderate early pace and was loose on the far turn without any early pressure. The Bayern filly steps up to face winners for the first time and will find serious early speed in the two rivals directly outside of her, Habobanero and Hotitude, in a race where TimeformUS pace projector suggests will be run at a very fast early pace. One of those pace rivals ran an excellent race in defeat versus open company on the main track in her last start and if she can duplicate that effort going a shorter distance she has a chance to spring the upset. HOTITUDE has raced on turf only once where she finished last in a nine horse field but one can draw a line through that race because it was at one mile. She returned from a 127 day layoff on September 14 where she scored the gate to wire victory but accomplished that victory under ideal circumstances where she led throughout through very slow early fractions earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-13,-3) for the first half mile and won by three quarters of a length. She took the rest of 2019 off and returned from a 293 day layoff on July 3 where she was dismissed as the second longest shot on the toteboard at 20-1 and she ran a career best race in her four year old seasonal debut. The daughter of Heat Shield shot out of the front to make the lead and pressed early down the backstretch, shook free of her rival around the far turn, and maintained a two length lead at mid stretch only to be run down by favored midpack stalker Ava’s Charm who rallied from fifth early. She set a very fast early pace according to Moss Pace Figures (+7,+3) earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures that favored horses off the pace with the first and third place finishers rallied from fifth and eighth early. She makes her second race off the long layoff with five works including a best of seven half mile spin on the turf eight days ago in 47.3 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+ stating “full of zip on the grass reaching late in 24.2, 47.2 (23.0 LQ). Perked up with a lively move.” Juan Hernandez takes over in the irons and I expect this Kristin Mulhull trainee to use her early speed as her best weapon. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (6) HOTITUDE at 9-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #9 Smiling Annie. Small reverse for each. 

Race 9: GINGHAM (#1, 6-1)

I do not have knocks against the morning line favorite Sneaking Out as California bred daughter of Indian Evening should get a great pace prompting trip outside of Mother of Dragons and Artistic Diva and owns the field’s highest last race Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figures of 92 and 112 respectively. My stand is against the second choice on the morning line Unique Factor who has won once in eight starts this year and that lone victory was on June 28 at Churchill Downs where she took advantage of a fast pace speed duel that saw the first two finishers rally from ninth and eighth early. In that race, she was wrangled back to trail the speed duel down the backstretch, she steadied briefly off heels into the far turn, angled four wide and made a wide move on the far turn to reach contention at the top of the stretch, and rallied past the battling leaders to win by a length earning a career best 86 Beyer and 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She exits a sixth place finish in the Grade 1 Madison Stakes at Keeneland and in my opinion she does not have the best late kick in this field as GINGHAM showed a nice burst of late speed to win the Angel Flight Stakes on June 13 at Santa Anita. The daughter of Quality Road rallied to be second behind multiple Grade 1 placed Venetian Harbor on February 8 where the winner returned to run second in the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes behind recent Grade 1 Alabama winner Swiss Skydiver, in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes behind Kentucky Oaks bound Speech, and recently was second behind Gamine the prohibitive favorite in the Grade 1 Test Stakes. She managed to split the field in the Gardenia Stakes on May 1 at Oaklawn Park where she was returning off a 83 day layoff. The Bob Baffert trainee cut back to today’s distance for the first time in the Angel Flight Stakes and despite the pace not being quick early, she was able to rally from last in the field of five to win by a one length drawing clear to the wire. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “trailed early then raced inside the runner-up at the rear, waited behind horses at the rear around the far turn, angled out upper stretch, rallied past midstretch, ran by the leader late, drew clear to the wire.” The impressive part about this win was the slow pace she overcame as the Moss Pace Figures found the first half mile very slow for the first half mile (-9,-7) earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. She has returned with nine workouts with seven of those over this main track including a five furlong move in 59.4 on August 6 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “tracked and drew clear from barnmate Happy Hepo in this lively move in 35.3, 59.4. Going well down here.” The bay filly should get a fast pace for her late kick with Artistic Diva going to the early lead with Mother of Dragons vying for the lead and the favorite Sneaking Out forwardly placed to the lead. Jockey Mike Smith will settle this filly early and unleash her late kick at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (1) GINGHAM to WIN at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #5 Sneaking Out. Small reverse. 

Race 10: EDDIE’S SISTER (#4, 8-1)

This is a field that is filled with proven losers over the turf. The two morning line favorites are a combined 7/0-2-2 on the turf with the morning line favorite Rockie Causeway rallied to be second the perfect trip winner Empress of Fire and this daughter of Giant’s Causeway will be favored with the best recent finish on the turf and her high percentage turf rider Flavien Prat. She has the appearance of a trial maiden and this race looks ripe for a fresh face in EDDIE’S SISTER who has lost her two starts by a combined thirty one and quarter lengths. Those defeats were sprinting on the main track and based on her pedigree she will adore the stretch out to two turns on the turf. She made her debut last November here at Del Mar where she was working well enough to be bet down to the 1-1 post time favorite and was compromised by a fast pace speed duel with the second choice and runner up Elgofranco as those two battled through fast opening quarter that was above par according to Moss Pace Figure (+4) and earned red coded TimeformUS pace figure and she weakened from this speed duel to finish fifth. The daughter of Square Eddie did not race for the rest of the 2019 and returned from a 231 day layoff on July 5 and finished last in a nine horse field beaten 22-½ lengths where she ran into a better than average California bred maiden field. The Phil D’Amato trainee was bumped at the break, moved up to set the early pace along the deeper inside paths at Los Alamitos, continued to set a quick pace around the turn and into the stretch, and retreated through the lane to finish last. The race only earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure but it was flattered when the winner returned to run second with a 80 Beyer Speed Figure finishing second in a California bred Allowance N1X on July 27 and fourth place finisher Empress of Fire returned to stretch out and win one mile turf maiden event on the July 27 with a 72 Beyer Speed Figure. She is finally stretching out to two turns and trying grass for the first time and her pedigree indicates she will adore both the surface and distance. Her dam, Sister Sally, won twice from five starts routing on the turf and she has passed that affinity for routing on the turf to her progeny. Sir Vronski (5-for-10), Sircat Sally (5-for-6), and Madam Sophia (1-for-3) were all turf route winners and Eddie’s Sister looks to continue in that successful lineage. She has returned with five works including her last four over this main track that two of them caught the attention of National Turf’s Andy Harrington to give them Bs where she “best over a set of three leading Master Ryan (second in MSW on August 8) and Jewel Thief (winner of Starter Allowance on August 14) in 23.4, 48.0 easy out in 100.4. Some stride here.” She is quickest out of the gate breaking towards the inside and I expect Abel Cedillo to use her early speed to make the early lead and if she runs to her works and her impressive turf pedigree she can spring a surprise in the finale. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) EDDIE’S SISTER to WIN at 5-1 or higher. 

No other plays. 

Del Mar Pick 3 Race 8: 

Race 8: (6) HOTITUDE, (9) Smiling Annie 

Race 9: (1) GINGHAM, (4) Sneaking Out 

Race 10: (4) EDDIE’S SISTER

Ticket 1: 6 with 1,4 with 4 = 1 x 2 x 1 x $3 = $6 

Ticket 2: 6,9 with 1 with 4 = 2 x 1 x 1 x $3 = $6 

Ticket 3: 6 with 1 with 4    = 1 x 1 x 1 x $6 = $6 

Total Wager: $18