Speed is the Key on Closing Day Del Mar Card

 Race 4: Allowance N1X, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three-year olds 

BEYOND BRILLIANT (#4, 8-1) is a son of Twirling Candy who will make his third start of this meet and so far it has not been a productive summer as he comes into this race beaten a combined 25-¼ lengths in those two starts. However, each race was better than the margin of defeat would suggest and with circumstances in his favor on closing day I expect a form reversal for this John Shirreffs trainee that could land him in the Winner’s Circle at a juicy price. He ran on opening weekend on July 17 at a flat mile on the main track where he ran into a Del Mar horse for course, Ginobili, in the fastest dirt mile of this Del Mar meet (1:36.18) that earned a 104 Beyer Speed Figure. In that race he rode the rail on the first turn and down the backstretch, chasing the fastest half mile at this distance, 45.21 seconds. He angled into the three paths into and around the far turn and made a nice run along with eventual fourth place finisher Established to the top of the stretch and flattened out on his run to finish fifth beaten 14-¼ lengths. No disgrace splitting this field as the speed figure was confirmed when Ginobilli came back to win G2 Pat O’ Brian on August 28, 2021 with a 102 Beyer Speed Figure and fourth place finisher, Established, came back to win Allowance N1X on August 21, 2021 with a 86 Beyer Speed Figure. Also, Beyond Brilliant raced along the inside for more than a half mile of this race on a main track with strong pro-outside bias. He returned three weeks later at the same class level at 1-1/16 on the main track where he found himself pressing a fast pace through the first half mile in between the favored winner, Defunded, and long shot pace rival in Betito. Beyond Brilliant stayed with the favored winner to the quarter pole and then gave way to lose by eleven lengths. This defeat was the result of a fast pace as the 46.17 second half mile he set was the sixth fastest half mile split from the first forty-three dirt route races through Saturday’s card at Del Mar. He switched to the turf and he ran well in his two sprints on turf in his first two starts and comes into this race with two maintenance workouts of half a mile and five furlongs. More importantly, is the pace of this race. Beyond Brilliant will not have to chase the pace that Ginobili set two races back in the fastest pace one mile this meet and will not have to set such an enervating half mile like he did in his recent start. In a race where TimeformUS pace projector sees it favoring horses on or near the early lead, new rider Kent Desormeaux will have this bay colt on the front end from the start and say catch me if you can as my BEST BET on closing day card. 

The Play:

WIN bet on (4) BEYOND BRILLIANT at 7-2 or higher. 

Main Exacta: 4-3. Small reverse. 

Race 6: Allowance N1X, 5 Furlongs Turf, Three-year olds and upward

DEISE DELIGHT (#7, 6-1) will make her third start of this meet and this Irish bred daughter of Brazen Beau has run very well in her two starts here at Del Mar. She ran third in a one mile Starter Allowance race on turf on July 25 where she set a pressured pace from the start with long shot pace rival Lookin So Lucky as those two dueled all the way to mid stretch where Deise Delight finally put away that rival but was softened up late as the first two finishers, Cinnte Winnte and Viazer, took advantage of the speed duel to rally from eleventh and tenth after the first half mile on a course and distance thru the first four weeks of the meet played pro closer bias. Also, this was not a visually impressive race to watch as only 4-½ lengths separated the first ten finishers in a race that I term in my notes as Bunched. In order to turn around her form, she cut back to five furlongs and added the blinkers for the first time on August 19 here at Del Mar and ran second behind her stablemate and today’s rival A.G. Indy but the difference for the win was the winner got a clear three-wide tracking trip while Deise Delight had to wait for room and that was the ultimate decision. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “she moved up to stalk the pace inside, had to wait as the winner got first run leaving the far turn and into the lane, came out and finished well while very late switching leads, too late for the win.” That moment that she had to wait was the difference in victory. She returns in eighteen days with the move up in class to Allowance N1X in a race where the TimeformUS pace projector once again sees this race favoring horses on or near the early lead. Deise Delight has early speed to lead like she showed in her first three starts routing on turf but the blinkers have enhanced that speed as she can be forwardly placed close to the early lead in a turf sprint such as the case last time out. Capable replacement Abel Cedillo takes the mount for the first time and with a cleaner trip at the top of the stretch I could envision Deise Delight turning the tables on her stablemate A.G. Indy to spring the mild upset to begin mandatory payout of the Jackpot Pick 6. 

The Play 

WIN bet on (7) DEISE DELIGHT at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: 7 with 1,5. Small reverse. 

Race 7: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and upward

LAUREL RIVER (#7, 3-1) is a horse that I have patiently waited to stretch out to two turns. My notes on this son of Into Mischief are “will handle the stretch out under favorable circumstances.” Today is the day if my notes prove accurate as this Bob Baffert trainee stretches out for the first time. He rode a pro-inside speed bias on April 3 to break his maiden by four and a quarter lengths with a career-best 92 Beyer Speed Figure and he has yet to visit the winner's circle in two subsequent starts. However, I can find excuses where the result of those two defeats was because of the early pace. He ran in the Grade 3 Laz Barrera on May 15 at Santa Anita where he ran second as the 6-5 second choice behind the favorite The Chosen Vroon but Laurel River won the early pace battle only to lose the war. In that race he popped the gate to lead only to face immediate pressure from the longest shot in the field, I’ll Stand Taller, as they zipped through 21.32 second opening quarter. He was able to shake loose of that rival into and around the far turn only to face immediate challenge from the favorite The Chosen Vroon who took over the lead at the eighth pole and won by three and a half lengths earning a 83 Beyer Speed Figure but this speed figure I upgraded to his maiden victory because the fractions he set were all coded red by TimeformUS and earned off the chart Moss Pace Figures. The pace was so fast that the pace rival he dueled with finished last beaten twenty-eight lengths. He shortened up to five and a half furlongs and returned from an eighty-four day layoff on August 7 where he was bet down to the 9-5 second choice in this field and opening quarter of a mile and trip too fast and sharp for his taste. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “broke a bit cross-footed, settled 3-wide, tracking the pace, pushed forward in the turn, took dead aim, spat the bit instead, faded the final furlong.” He tracked a fast pace for the first quarter of a mile as the 21.51 second opening quarter was the second fastest first quarter at this distance through the first twenty-nine races on this trip through Saturday’s card. This fast pace resulted in the favorite, I’ve Got No Munny, to rally from last along the rail to win. He now stretches out after back to back chasing or pressing fast paces in his last two starts and being on the lead after the first pace and second call at this one mile trip has proven to be a successful running style. Through the conclusion of Saturday’s card, thirteen races (33%) were won by horses on the lead after the first call and sixteen races (40%) were won by horses after the second call. Laurel River’s early speed stretching out to one mile will see this bay colt in the lead and if he sets the pace he could continue that successful trend of gate-to-wire winners on this trip as my second BEST BET on the card. 

The Play: 

WIN bet on (7) LAUREL RIVER at 9-5 or better. 

Main Exacta: 7 with 3,8. No reverse. 

Race 10: Starter Allowance, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and upward 

MUAY THAI (#4, 8-1) is a horse that has been bothered by back to back troubled trips in his races this meet and is the only horse to make my horses to watch list twice for one meet. The Irish-bred Accalamtion gelding was sent off as the 7-2 second choice in his North America debut on July 23, 2021 here at Del Mar and according to the short comment in your past performances it says Bid 4 deep, faltered. He had a more difficult trip than that comment would indicate. He broke from post position seven in an eight horse field and was parked three wide into the first turn and down the backstretch, racing without cover for the first half mile and the trip did not get any better from here. He launched a four wide move into and around the far turn and sustained that bid all the way to mid-stretch before the wide trip and 116 day layoff caught up to him as he flattened out on his run to finish fifth. I upgraded this effort because of the long layoff and the wide journey cost him his best chance. He made his first start off the claim for John Sadler and his main client Hronis Racing LLC on August 20 at Del Mar where the comment said bumped, checked late. Once again the video replay reveals a lot more than the short comment would indicate. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “bobbled at the start, raced outside of ROOKIE YEAR off the pace down the backstretch, angled down to the fence, came out with his run near deep stretch, bumping and bothering PLAY CHICKEN, gained between horses deep stretch, was bumped and forced out by VANTAGE POINT bumping ROOKIE YEAR, checked hard late to lose all chance.” He ultimately was disqualified and placed sixth but he had another troubled trip. This closer will need pace and he will get it on the final race of the meet with Stone’s River the confirmed pacesetter in the finale with Ox Bridge and Cane Creek Road two horses that will chase or press Stone’s River early. From post position four, regular rider Joe Bravo will have him covered up into the first turn, save ground, and with a clean trip visit the Winner’s Circle for a meet that Jersey Joe has established him as one of the top riders to challenge Flavien Prat for leading rider in Southern California. 

The Play: 

WIN bet on (4) MUAY THAI at 4-1 or higher. 

Main Exacta: 4 with 7,9. Small reverse. 

 

Higher Power Looks for the Repeat in the Pacific Classic

 Race 7: PROUD PEDRO (#6, 12-1)

The morning line favorite and the deserving one is United who comes into this race having won three straight since narrow defeats in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf and Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup. The son of Giant’s Causeway has really benefited from ideal trips in each of his three wins as he stalked a very fast early pace to enough red coded TimeformUS pace figures in Grade 2 San Marcos on February 1, launched a wide run to grab the lead between horses past mid-stretch and held off the late run of Cleopatra’s Strike and Oscar Dominguez in a race that saw the five horses behind him return to finish second, third, and three off the board finishes. In his next two starts, he sat perfect pace prompting a trip in second behind moderate early pace in the Grade 2 Whittingham and Eddie Read, took the lead in deep stretch, and held off the late run of Rockemperor and Sharp Samurai respectively. He makes his third race off a 112 day layoff and he is no standout from a speed figure standpoint as his last race 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure does not give him an advantage over the rest of the field and he will have to concede anywhere from three to seven pounds. Instead my choice was visually impressive in his only start at today’s mile and three-eighths trip and owns a devastating late kick. 

PROUD PEDRO has improved as a four-year old with two victories from four starts and has thrived since stretching out to a mile and a quarter and longer. The Pedro the Great colt finished in front of subsequent Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano winner Red King in his first start at ten furlongs on February 23 at Santa Anita where he raced in traffic between rivals in the two path around both turns, angled three wide at the top of the stretch, rallied to grab the lead past mid-stretch and held off the late bid of long shot Farquhar to win by three-quarters of a length. He returned from a 89 day layoff and delivered a rare sub par performance finishing last in an eight horse field as Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated this was a “very puzzling performance from the usually sure-fire Powell trainee.” This was a stronger than normal Allowance N2X as the winner returned to win the Oceanside Stakes with 87 Beyer Speed Figure, sixth-place finisher Kazan returned to win $40,000 claiming event with 89 Beyer Speed Figure, and fifth place finisher Order and Law returned two starts later to win at this same class level with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. The Leonard Powell trainee returned from a brief 63 day freshening at today’s distance and was a visually impressive winner that is not described in his 93 Beyer Speed Figure. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “broke a touch slow, ambling on his own rhythm at the back 4 lengths down, coiling up turning for home, wheeling out for the stretch, producing a sustained kick, making the front in the final strides.” What makes this performance excellent was he rallied from fifth and last behind a very slow early pace earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures where he was the only horse to rally against the grain of the race shape as North County Guy prompted this tepid pace in second. He earned a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure which is the highest last race speed figure in this field and only one point behind United’s best speed figure. He smoked his last three-eighths in 34.60 seconds and the lack of pace he found in his last start should be present with longshots Big Buzz going for the early lead pressed by outclassed New Year on or near the front end. He has come back with two works including a “leg stretching,” half mile maintenance move in 50.2 on August 15 according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker. Juan Hernandez remains in the irons and he can duplicate his Allowance N2X win in this race getting seven pounds from the favorite United he can spring an upset in the opening leg of the late Pick 5. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (6) PROUD PEDRO at 8-1 or better

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #5 Ward N Jerry and #7 Red King. 

Small Exacta: #7 Red King with #6 Proud Pedro. 

Race 8: KERSHAW (#8, 9-2)

The morning line favorite belongs to Extra Hope who will make his four-year old seasonal debut off a 273 day layoff. The son of Shanghai Bobby was last seen finishing second behind the gate to wire winner Midcourt in last November’s Grade 3 Native Diver Handicap at mile and an eighth in a race that saw the first two finishers run first and second at each call as the race developed at slow pace according to the Moss Pace Figures (-4,-5). The Richard Mandella trainee has returned to work splendidly over the Del Mar main track with three consecutive B workouts according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker. The concern from this corner is the effect of the extended layoff have to do with his fitness for this race as trainer Richard Mandella has won at 30% rate (3-for-10) in the past five years with his dirt starters returning off a 250 to 300 day layoff but those three wins were at six furlongs (twice) and six and a half furlongs and the lone route start was Belle Hill who finished sixth at 3-1 returning off a 260 day layoff. His uncoupled entrymate, Take the One O One, I will use as one of my contenders but the top choice has shown better than looked form in his previous two starts that makes him good value play against the two favorites. 

KERSHAW has not visited the winner circle since February 23 at today’s distance when he won at this same Allowance N2X class level going gate to wire. Since that race, he has managed to hit the board only once in four subsequent starts but two of them I am going to draw a line right through. He finished off the board on a wet fast and sealed main track on April 19 at Oaklawn where he battled with pace rival Shang through fast fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures (+11,+6) and tired to finish sixth on a surface he proved in his three previous starts he detest a off track. His other off the board finish was in the San Juan Capistrano on turf where he failed to hit the board in his previous start and he was used as a rabbit for his uncouple stablemate and eventual winner Red King. In his fourth place finish behind Ax Man on May 16 he suffered a wide trip as he was parked two to three wide around the first turn, four wide down the backstretch, launched a four wide run to loom outside of the first two finishers at the top of the stretch, and flattened out on his run at mid-stretch to be fourth where the first two finishers ran second and first at each call with Kershaw losing ground throughout in a tough trip. His other better than looked effort was his last start when he returned to the level of his lone win this year but was risked for the optional claiming price of $62,500 on July 25 where he ran much better than the Inside game 3rd comment found in your past performances. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, this son of Run Away and Hide was “sent to show speed then stalked inside around the first turn, tracked down the backstretch, ridden along around the far turn, had a huge opening to rally through into the drive, dead aim, not good enough.” This was a faster than average Allowance N2X that saw the winner Dark Vader earn a 95 Beyer Speed Figure but what makes this effort better than looked was the bias he was up against. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the outside lanes were clearly best on July 25 and Kershaw was pinned on this bad rail throughout while the winner raced off the rail in the two or three path and runner up had three to four wide trip throughout as Kershaw was clearly compromised by the bias. He has come back with two decent B- works according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker and finds a field without a lot of front running early speed as Take the One O One is the field’s clear pacesetter. From his outside draw, Kershaw should get a great trip pressing or stalking the pacesetter in the clear and return to his winning ways at a hint of a price for trainer Phil D’Amato. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (8) KERSHAW at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #4 Take the One O One, #3 Potantico. 

Small Exacta: #4 Take the One O One with #8 Kershaw. 

Race 9: GUITTY (#11, 8-1) 

This race has all the markings from a pace standpoint as the Honeymoon Stakes on May 30 at Santa Anita run at this exact same distance of 1-⅛ miles. That race the winner and today’s morning line favorite, Laura’s Light, sat in second behind the runaway speed horse Parkour who sped through very fast fractions earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures and according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “reeled in the leader in the far turn, swept to the lead past mid stretch, drifted on to the fence in deep stretch, and just held.” She projects to get a similar trip on Saturday but one rival did not get the cleanest of trips in that same common race and was second to her in the San Clemente will enjoy the stretch out to additional eighth of a mile. 

GUITTY was my top choice in the San Clemente when her late rally fell three-quarters of a length short behind Laura’s Light and she returned to face that rival for the fifth time in her career. Before jockey Juan Hernandez took over in the irons, this French bred daughter of Dunkerque was her own worst enemy by her fifth place finish behind Laura’s Light in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes at today’s nine furlong distance. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she was “forced in at the break and took up linking up with the course proper, traveled keenly at the rear of the field, taken three-wide by her pilot approaching the half-mile pole, circled the field into the far turn, kept coming three-wide in the far turn, carried five-wide into the lane, bid to mid stretch, in tight and steadied, flipped onto her wrong lead, plodded to the wire. The Powell trainee is likely around at the finish with a more patient ride.” Based off this troubled trip, a cut back to one mile, and the likelihood of a very fast pace set by the expected leader Cheermesiter with Laura’s Light not too far behind that brisk pace, Guitty was my top select at 20-1 in the San Clemente and she fell three-quarters of a length short behind her aforementioned rival. The Handicapper’s Report clocker gave her a B for her July 7 move in 49 flat and she ran to her work and better as the Handicapper’s Report trip notes stated “trailed two-deep, came out around the far turn, picked off horses quickly leaving that bend, continued a sustained rally in the stretch, drifted out a bit, couldn’t get to the winner, second best” covering her last quarter of a mile in a field’s best 22.90 seconds and lost nothing in defeat. She did have a fast pace to close into as the early fractions saw it earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures but she projects to get another fast pace as Parkour will flee from post position nine to go for the lead while chased by Laura’s Light and the sprinter stretching out Aqua Seafoam Shame not too far behind and this anticipated fast pace will benefit Guiity who owns the TimeformUS best late pace rating in this field. She has returned with only one work a 47.4 half mile spin on August 13 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave the very rare A- stating “looked fantastic in this faster than given half mile turf work around the dogs, going off in 12.2, flying around the far turn, passing the 1/4 pole in 23.3 (11.1 around a turn with the dogs up), she was not asked in the stretch, up in 46.4, a really sharp work, it appears the three-year-old grass filly is coming up to a corker.” Juan Hernandez remains in the irons and with her late kick and proven form over the Del Mar turf course, GUITTY is the best value play in the Del Mar Oaks. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (11) GUITTY at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #11 with #3 Miss Extra, #8 Neige Blanche. Small reverse for each. 

Race 10: HIGHER POWER (#2, 3-1) 

The highlight of the Del Mar meeting the Pacific Classic sees the rematch of the first three finishers of the San Diego Handicap with Maximum Security assign the role of morning line favorite at 1-1. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “the New Year’s Day colt led early, relinquished the lead around the first turn, stalked down the backstretch, came under a ride two-deep past the half-mile pole, all-out around the far turn and into the lane, caught the leader past mid stretch, put his head in front, just won the bob.” That was his first start off a 147 day layoff and for trainer Bob Baffert. He has certainly trained like a colt that will move forward in his second start for his Hall of Fame trainer with his last two works over the Del Mar main track a B+ according to Handicapper’s Report clocker including his seven furlong move in 1:25.2 that the clocker stated “much better than he was before the San Diego, he appears to be handling the track much better in preparation for the Pacific Classic.” I am not concerned with his ability or gameness but rather if today’s ten furlong distance is what he really wants at this stage of his career. His two most visually impressive efforts happened around one turn in the Bold Ruler at seven furlongs and Grade 1 Cigar Mile over last year’s Grade 1 BC Dirt Mile winner Spun to Run. As mentioned with Kershaw’s analysis, July 25 saw the main track favoring horses that raced on the outside paths and Maximum Security raced in the three paths from the beginning of the backstretch to the wire. I believe one horse is primed for a repeat victory in the same race he won by five and a quarter lengths and will look for a better trip than in San Diego. 

HIGHER POWER has not visited the winner’s circle since last year’s Pacific Classic where he scored a 9-1 upset over these exact same conditions. The son of 2003 Pacific Classic runner up, Medaglia D’Oro is slowly rounding into form for trainer John Sadler as his two starts off a 133 day layoff indicate he is primed for a winning effort. After his debacle in the Pegasus World Cup, he made his return in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup on June 6 where he received his ideal trip tracking the leader Brown Storm and the favored pace pressing winner Improbable in the three path for the majority of the race sitting just off moderate fractions. He began to be worked on midway on the far turn as Improbable began to spurt away from the field and this bay five-year old chased home that winner finishing well clear of the rest of the field in a highly rated (105 Beyer Speed Figure) that ranks as the fourth fastest races at more than a mile this year and the figure was validated when Improbable returned to win the Grade 1 Whitney with a 106 Beyer Speed Figure. He was training in respectable matter for the Grade 2 San Diego on July 25 with three consecutive B- workouts according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker but the distance would be an issue as his two best races in the past year were at today’s mile and a quarter distance and Higher Power figures to be in trouble at this shorter trip. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “tracked inside early, moved up and angled out to press the pace and try to put the winner in a box onto the backside, stalked again inside passing the 5/8 pole, outrun leaving the far turn, dropped back in the stretch, distant third.” He was compromised by race riding tactics as jockey Flavien Prat attempted to put the favorite into an uncomfortable position into the backstretch moving early and was forced to race on the rail on a main track that strongly favored outside paths that afternoon. He stretches out to his preferred distance and has trained better for this event with three straight B workouts according to Handicapper’s Report clocker with the comment “a good work for the classy sort, who will be pointed for the Pacific Classic.” I expect the tactics will be Victor Espinoza on Midcourt hustling his mount to the lead with Maximum Security glued to his flank in second. Flavien Prat will be chasing or pressing the pace in the three paths into the first turn and if he can duplicate last year’s win in this year’s Pacific Classic he can give the favorite only the second time he has crossed the wire defeated in a race as my BEST BET on the card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (2) HIGHER POWER at 2-1 or better. 

No other plays. 

Race 11: SHADOW SPHINX (#4, 7-2)

The most important part in handicapping the finale is how the early pace will shape up. The only other horse that can possibly challenge the morning line favorite, Shadow Sphinx, early is recent California bred Allowance winner Ostini and he comes off a win where he took the blinkers off July 12 and rallied from last behind a very fast early pace that earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures and won by a head. If Juan Hernandez takes back on Ostini then SHADOW SPHINX will find himself on the lead and prove to be a tough rival to run down in the finale. He won three of eleven starts as a three-year old including a win and a second in two starts over this Del Mar turf course. After splitting an eleven horse field in his only start as a four year old down the hillside turf course at Santa Anita, he did not race for the remainder of 2019 with an unknown aliment. He returned from a 510 day layoff on June 20 where he ran in a Starter Allowance with optional claiming price of $32,000 where he was risked for the claiming tag in his first start off the extended layoff and he came back better than ever with a convincing victory versus an overmatched field. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “settled just off the pacesetter, traveled beautifully down the backstretch, bore down on the leader in the far turn, took command at the head of the lane, shifted in, kicked away, ridden out.” He earned the field’s top last race 89 Beyer and 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure and what makes that victory more impressive was he pressed the leader Blackout through very fast fractions to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures that took its toll on the leader as he weakened to finish ninth and last beaten seventeen lengths with Shadow Sphinx won the early battle for the lead and won the war. He returns off a two month freshening with seven workouts none more impressive than his five furlong move in 59.2 on August 2 on this turf course with last year’s Queen Plate winner One Bad Boy that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B+ stating “not asked, appearing best in 59.2, an excellent work for the recent winner, who is on top of his game, tab for another huge effort,” making their Fit and Ready list for today. There is not a lot of front running early speed that can challenge this Richard Baltas trained son of Pioneer of the Nile and he should easily make the lead passing the finish line for the first time and make every pole a winning one as the probable post time favorite in a race that will conclude the mandatory Pick 6 and late Pick 5. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) SHADOW SPHINX at 9-5 or better. 

Trifecta part-wheel: 4 with 2,5,6 with 2,3,5,6,7,9,10 = $18 for a $1 Wager 

Trifecta part-wheel: 4 with 2,3,5,6,7,9,10 with 2,5,6 = $9 for a $0.50 Wager

Del Mar Race 7 Pick 5

Race 7: (6) Proud Pedro, (7) Red King 

Race 8: (4) Take the One O One, (8) Kershaw 

Race 9: (3) Miss Extra, (8) Neige Blanche, (11) Guitty 

Race 10: (2) HIGHER POWER

Race 11: (4) SHADOW SPHINX 

Main Ticket: 6,7 with 4,8 with 3,8,11 with 2 with 4 = 2 x 2 x 3 x 1 x 1 x $1.50 = $18

Del Mar Race 8 Pick 3

Race 8: (4) Take the One O One, (8) Kershaw 

Race 9: (3) Miss Extra, (8) Neige Blanche, (11) Guitty 

Race 10: (2) HIGHER POWER

Main Ticket: 4,8 with 3,8,11 with 2 = 2 x 3 x 1 x $2 = $12 

Del Mar Race 9 Pick 3

Race 9: (3) Miss Extra, (8) Neige Blanche, (11) Guitty 

Race 10: (2) HIGHER POWER

Race 11: (4) SHADOW SPHINX 

Main Ticket: 3,8,11 with 2 with 4 = 3 x 1 x 1 x $4 = $12 

 

Ollie's Candy Looks to Defend Her Crown in Clement Hirsch

Race 8: OIL CAN KNIGHT (#1, 5-1) 

The morning line favorite Microrithms will be fancied in the wagering based on his trainer Bob Baffert who won Shared Belief Stakes with Thousand Words, debuting maiden winner Freedom Fighter, and Grade 1 Whitney with Improbable on Saturday. Also, this gelding won at this Allowance N1X condition already on a sloppy/sealed main track on December 6, 2018 at Los Alamitos and in his most recent win won Allowance N2X defeating two next out winners in Captain Scotty and Distinctive B who returned to earn 99 and 94 Beyer Speed Figures respectively. The two issues I have with the morning line favorite are his soundness and that Allowance N2X was flattered by pace and track condition. He will make only his sixth start as a six-year old as this is the second time he is returning off a extended layoff as he returned from a 482 day layoff on November 3, 2018 and ran second beaten a neck as the 5-2 post time favorite and today he is returning off a 549-day layoff being risked for a claiming price of $40,000 for the first time. Secondly, his latest victory where he earned a career and field’s best last race 99 Beyer Speed Figure. However, that win was flattered by sloppy/sealed main track that strongly favored inside-speed on Janaury 31, 2019 that Microrithms rode and the fractions on paper look fast but when taken into account the track variant those fractions were moderate per the Moss Pace Figures (-1,-1) and were very slow to earn blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. I will look for a horse with recency and landed on OIL CAN KNIGHT who since being claimed for $25,000 by trainer Steve Knapp has sprinted on a fast main track three times with two wins. Although his previous win on a fast main track at today’s distance on May 15 saw the first seven finishers seperated by only four and a quarter lengths at the wire, he showed a lot of determination fending off more than one challenge in what returned to be a “key” race. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran 4-wide on the front, pushing forward 3-wide to take the lead midturn, failing to achieve any margin, trading punches, digging deep to fend off stubborn foes to the wire.” The runner-up, Kneedeepinsnow, returned to duplicate his 90 Beyer Speed Figure winning his next start and third-place finisher Galilean returned to win his next two starts with Beyer Speed Figures of 90 and 93 in the process. His most recent start where he was virtually eased through the stretch beaten sixty-four and half lengths one can dismiss as the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “his race was compromised by the bad start, and makes today a complete throwout.” He returned with three workouts including a five furlong move in 1:01.1 on July 19 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B commented “Improved drill going home with energy while holding a shorter working All Star Heat at bay, galloping well past the wire for the Knapp barn. Sure looks better than last.” He returns for the optional $40,000 claiming price at a condition he won two starts back but he remains above his original claiming price which is a positive sign. From the rail with hustling rider Edwin Maldonado returning in the irons I expect him to be one of the leaders in the first quarter of a mile and if he shows the same determination he flashed in that May 15 win he will be a tough rival to run down. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (1) OIL CAN KNIGHT at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #7 Drop the Chalupa. Small reverse. 

Daily Double: #1, #7 with #2 Savvy Gal 

Race 9: SAVVY GAL (#2, 8-1)

The morning line favorite Colombian Gold drops to a restricted three-year old $40,000 claiming event today after finishing tenth and last in Allowance N1X on opening weekend. Despite the class drop, this Dialed In filly broke her maiden in her seventh career start on June 7 at Santa Anita where she defeated a below average $62,500 maiden claiming field and did so with a perfect ride by Flavien Prat and an ideal pace scenario. She sat off the pacesetter Constantia through the first six furlongs through moderate fractions, disposed of that rival at the top of the stretch, and kicked clear, earning a career best 75 Beyer and 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That field was subpar as nine horses behind her returned and it produced one winner, one runner-up, two third-place finishes, and five off the board finishes. She will not find that race shape this afternoon as the expected leader handled a fast pace speed duel in her comeback performance off the layoff and will be fitter in her second race into her form cycle over a turf course she loves. SAVVY GAL returns to Del Mar where she broke her maiden in her career debut at this distance as a two-year-old and ran second behind the Grade 2 placed Guitty in her last start over the Del Mar turf course. The daughter of Street Sense appeared to be off form when she finished last beaten fifteen and three-quarter lengths in her third start of this year but that last place finish was the result of her chasing the gate to wire winner Parkour who established very fast fractions to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures in the process. With her history of running well here at Del Mar, she returned eighty-two day layoff on June 12 where she recorded only two workouts leading up to that race a three furlong and a half mile workout and she figured to not be one hundred percent for her return race and yet to ran very well in defeat to win the early pace battle through fast fractions that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and setup for the off the pace runners as first three finishers rallied from sixth, fourth, and fifth after the first half-mile. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she was “sent to lead, came under pressure into and around the first turn and onto the backside, dueled nearing the half-mile pole, put away that rival to shake clear early on the far turn, collared again in the stretch, outrun midstretch, weakened badly. She likely needed this race and could do better in a less pace-filled race.” She drops another class level to $40,000 today and with that comeback race under her belt and with four workouts since that return effort, SAVVY GAL should be fitter in her second race off the layoff. Moreover, the pace scenario will suit her front running style as she is the leader in TimeformUS early pace rating by fourteen points over her next speed rival, the overmatched Dont’s Stop Looking. With Humberto Figueroa returning in the saddle, she should easily make the lead into the first turn and prove tough to catch for trainer Richard Baltas.

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (2) SAVVY GAL at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #6 Breakfast Ball, #7 Lady Noguez, and #9 Too Much Heaven. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #2 with #5 Ollie’s Candy 

Race 10: OLLIE’S CANDY (#5, 5-2)

The morning line favorite, Hard Not to Love, will look for her first win around two turns in this prestigious Grade 1 event as she has run behind Ce Ce in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile and rallied to be second in the Grade 2 Santa Maria behind Fighting Mad. The issue with this daughter of Hard Spun is her pre race antics in the afternoon and if she is better filly around one turn versus two. In the Santa Maria she was “very difficult and unwilling in the warm-up,” according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes delaying the start for several minutes and this wasted energy resulted in her trailing the field badly behind the gate to wire winner Fighting Mad and rallied to be second when the others in that five-horse field were tired into the stretch such as Ce Ce. Moreover, outside of her third-place finish in the Angel Flight Stakes in her third career start, Hard Not to Love is five for six at distances from six to seven furlongs and this John Shirreffs trainee is better suited to one turn vs two. Plus she has disappointed and appeared on the “dullish” side according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington in her last two workouts for the Clement Hirsch and she is a complete throw out for me. I have always had an affinity for OLLIE’S CANDY ever since she was trained by William Morey Jr. and the five year old is better than ever even though she has failed to visit the winner’s circle in three starts this year. The daughter of Candy Ride made her five-year-old debut off a 133-day layoff in the Grade 1 Beholder and ran evenly to finish a clear third where she needed this race off the break. She shipped to Arkansas for the Grade 1 Apple Blossom on April 18 and she ran a winning race in defeat winning a hard fought speed duel through blazing fractions that earned off the chart Moss Pace Figures (+23,+15) and red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She shook loose from her three main speed and pace rivals, Serengeti Empress, Cookie Dough, and Come Dancing as those rivals crossed the wire and finished eleventh, fourteenth, and twelfth. The John Sadler trainee opened up a two and half length lead past mid-stretch and it required the entire length of the stretch for the perfect trip winner Ce Ce to run her down winning by a head. The 98 Beyer Speed Figure the Apple Blossom earned does not do justice for Ollie’s Candy but TimeformUS Speed Figure does as this dark bay filly earned a 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure while the winner Ce Ce earned a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She was scratched from the Grade 1 Gamely at mile and an eighth on the turf for the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps on the main track at Belmont Park where she dueled the pacesetter Blamed into defeat, opened up another two and half length lead past mid-stretch and was only caught in the final sixteenth of a mile by She’s A Julie and Point of Honor as those two rallied from fourth and fifth after the first half mile. She returns to Del Mar where she won this race last year and has looked fantastic in the mornings preparing for this event with a 59.4 move on July 26 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B+ stating “Big drill running down Rowangoeshollywood (Marquez) and Cryin' Chuck (Sadler) in 35.2, 59.3 guided out in 112.0. Big spin over the track.” She can lead or sit just off Fighting Mad whose most recent victory in the Santa Maria was earned under ideal circumstances loose on the lead quick fractions per Moss Pace Figures (+4,+3) but she had an intense inside-speed bias in her favor. If Ollie’s Candy can repeat any of her last two starts she will defend her title in the Clement Hirsch as my BEST BET on the card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) OLLIE’S CANDY at 9-5 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #2 Ce Ce. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #5 with #2 Tallien, #5 Juror and #8 Hollywoodhelraiser. 

Race 11: JUROR (#5, 4-1)

The morning line favorite War Path enters this race with the best recent race at this distance finishing second beaten a head on June 19 behind the perfect trip winner Tiberius Mercurius but question marks surround that field that makes me leery of War Path being a legitimate morning line favorite to back. The race saw the first four finishers seperated by only one-length at the wire and the below par 80 Beyer Speed Figure matched the visual impression of that event. The subsequent performances of the horses of that June 19 event prove it was a subpar race as it produced three second-place finishes, two third-place finishes, and one off the board effort. Instead, I will look for a new face that is eligible for the Del Mar “Ship and Win” program and JUROR fits the profile. He made his career debut on June 1 for owner and breeder Juddmonte Farms for trainer Chad Brown and this colt was always destined to adore routing on the turf. He is a half sister to Assembly who won two of seven starts routing on the turf with a career best 80 Beyer Speed Figure and he is a full brother to Seismic Wave who is Graded Stakes placed and has won three of thirteen starts routing on the turf with a career best 98 Beyer Speed Figure. The bay colt enjoyed a relatively clean journey in his June 1 debut as he saved ground around the first turn and down the backstretch racing in midpack behind a two-horse speed duel early. He angled off the rail around the far turn in the two path, was three to four wide at the top of the stretch, and put in a decent rally to be a non-threatening second behind the experienced winner Felix the Fox who broke his maiden in his thirteenth career start. Although that race has failed to produce any subsequent winners as four entrants that returned including the winner finish off the board in their next start, Juror can improve with more experience under his belt in the same fashion that his full brother Sesmic Wave has. He will make his first start for trainer Richard Baltas through private purchase with four workouts over the Del Mar main track that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B for two of those workouts including his most recent where he completed his “last 1/4 mile in 24.1 kicking on well for the Baltas barn. Some athleticism here.” Abel Cedillo rides for the first time and in a field that lacks a clear standout this well bred son of Tapit looks to take advantage of that in his first start for his connections. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (5) JUROR at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 Juror with #2 Tallien, #8 Hollywoodhellraiser. Small reverse for each. 

Del Mar Race 8 Pick 4: 

Race 8: (1) Oil Can Knight and (7) Drop the Chalupa

Race 9: (2) SAVVY GAL

Race 10: (5) OLLIE’S CANDY

Race 11: (2) Tallien, (5) Juror, and (8) Hollywoodhellraiser.

Main Ticket: 1,7 with 2 with 5 with 2,5,8 = 2 x 1 x 1 x 3 x $2 = $12

No other plays.  

Turf Racing is the Word on Excellent Card at Del Mar

Race 5: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile Turf, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at a very slow early pace favoring horses on or near the early lead. The horses that will favor this race shape are Scattagirl, Sutton’s Smile, and Zip N Bayou. Horses that will behind this slow early pace in the second flight are My Sweet Afleet, Savannah Sky, and Dynamic Mizzes K. The rivals that can be hindered by a slow early pace that will be lagging far back early are La Boheme, morning line favorite Arethusa, and Stylish in Black.

My play in this race is against morning line favorite Arethusa. She had an absolute perfect journey when she ran second behind the favored winner Grandma’s Hands on opening day. She was beautifully covered next to last behind a contested speed duel between Cover Song and Moon Over Paris, continued saving ground around the second turn as she moved up into the stretch, split rivals, and delivered good rally between rivals to get second. The 80 Beyer Speed Figure she earned gives her no advantage over this field as others in this field have run equal or faster. Her late running style could be hampered by a race shape that favors horses on or near the early lead per TimeformUS pace projector. In addition the form of that race was not flattered when the third-place finisher returned to finish fifth beaten 3-¾ lengths here on August 4 behind Mo Knows.  

A trip note horse from last fall’s Bing Crosby meet here at Del Mar reappears in the opening leg of the Saturday Pick 6 and that horse is Sutton’s Smile (#2). This gray or roan filly by Paddy O’ Prado loves the Del Mar turf course even though she has never won over this surface with a record 2-0-1-1. The race that I want to point out is her third-place finish in last year’s Gr. 3 Jimmy Durante where she was beaten 2-¼ lengths behind opportunistic closer Family Meeting and she lost more ground than the margin of defeat would indicate according to Trakus. In that race she sat in the two-path alongside Mokat through the first half mile of the race. She was maneuvered three wide leaving the backstretch and around the far turn as she moved up to reach contention four wide into the stretch, and flattened out as the second-place finisher rallied up along the rail to get second. According to Trakus she traveled 5ft and 36ft more than the first two finishers respectively making her effort look much better than the 3wd 2nd turn, up 3rd comment in Daily Racing Form. She made her next turf start on March 12 in the China Doll Stakes where she was returning from a ninety-one day layoff where she was very keen early pulling jockey Rafael Bejarano early along the rail chasing a very fast early pace set by the favored Pacific Heat early, continued chasing the favored leader all the way to the top of the stretch where she angled off the rail, and was out finished to the wire losing by only 1-½ lengths in a race that developed at fast early pace to set up for the horses coming from off the pace as the first three finishers rallied from 7th, 5th, and 6th after the first half mile. The form of the China Doll Stakes was flattered when the fourth-and-fifth place finishers returned to win. She dropped in class to face Allowance N1X rivals versus three-year olds only on May 20 and she ran an excellent second behind the 1-2 favored winner Lady Valeur. She was able to get over from post position seven into the two-path on the first turn racing between rivals behind the uncontested leader Not Now Carolyn who establish a very fast early pace thru the first half mile (22.43 and 46.23). The gray filly split rivals on the far turn, angled three wide with a clear run at the favored winner into the stretch, and was second best finishing 4-¼ lengths ahead of the rest of the field earning 82 Beyer Speed Figure which equals the par for this class level (Beyer par 83). She was on the wrong surface (dirt) behind the brilliant undefeated champion Songbird in the Gr. 2 Summertime Oaks. She returns to her preferred Del Mar turf course and is reunited with Joe Talamo who has ridden her perfectly to two second-place finishers from two starts and was aboard for her five furlong 1:02 ⅗ move on July 31 that Andy Harrington gave a B- stating she “relaxed solo spin with Talamo aboard going 37.4, 102.3. Moving well off the break.” Without the presence of a crazy speed rival such as Not Now Carolyn or Pacific Heat in this field, she should be in a perfect spot on the rail close to a slower early pace in a race that projects to favor horses on or near the early lead. She should not worry about losing ground from post position two and appears ready to break through with her second turf victory as the BEST BET on the card.

In my exotics I will focus on horses that will forwardly placed close to anticipated slow early pace. Zip N Bayou (#7) found herself further off the pace than she is used too on June 11 because the pacesetter Rockport Babe tore off to set a uncontested early lead thru quick early fractions for the first half mile (22.74 and 47.30). She was angled three wide for a clear run into the far turn but was badly impeded around the far turn forcing her wider while dropping back to second to last, rallied seven to eight wide into the stretch, and rallied for second. Despite losing by 2-¼ lengths she covered 34ft, 54ft, and 47ft more than the winner, third, and fourth-place finishers according to Trakus. The slower early pace in this race will favor her style as she has more tactical speed. Scattagirl (#1) turns back from 1-⅜ on July 28 where she weaken to fifth to one mile where she is 2-1-0 in her last three starts at the one-mile distance on turf. Jockey Kent Desormeaux remains in the irons and she should enjoy a smooth ground saving stalk and pounce trip. Dynamic Mizzes K (#9) was too close to a rapid early pace set by uncontested leader Nine Point Nine on July 17 and tired badly to finish ninth in the Sandy Blue Handicap. I expect jockey Gary Stevens to position his mount close to the early pace which will not be as fast as last time and trainer Mark Glatt continues on his red hot streak this meet.

The Play: My focus on this race is strictly around Sutton’s Smile who figures to enjoy a perfect trip close to an slow early pace and get the first jump on the closers in this race.

WIN bet on (2) SUTTON’S SMILE

Main Exactas: 2-1, 2-7, 2-9. Small reverse for each.

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early pace that does not favor horses on or near the lead or coming from off the early pace. Dashin Ashen from the rail will straight for the early lead but will be pursued or chased by Tandora with first time blinkers and Vivacious Beauty. Those three rivals will be chased by Pragmatical and morning line favorite Tryst in the second flight. Breathe will not find the same early fractions she pressed on July 17 and will be outrun early.

I made this race one of my four prime plays on today’s card because I have a note on Formulator to always play against today’s morning line favorite Tryst. She has lost at odds of 2-5, 3-10, and 4-5 and has not looked visually impressive in her last two starts despite finishing 5-¼ and 4-½ lengths ahead of the rest of the field. On May 15 she chased home the gate to wire winner Rockport Babe to the wire while switching and raising her tale through the stretch and switching to her incorrect left lead to the wire. In her next start on June 17 she acted better through the stretch chasing the gate to wire winner Seaside Glory to the wire but she enjoyed a perfect trip chasing the dueling leaders in third and making no significant impact to the wire. The second choice on the morning line Lady Pamela is also a bet against because her trainer, Clifford Sise Jr., is 16-1-1-4 with first time starters debuting in a maiden special weight dirt sprint the past five years per DRF Formulator. She is by Tapit out of Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic winner Life is Sweet and is bred for more distance as National Turf’s Andy Harrington has gave her a pair of B works but with the comment of “Has a steady kick,” and “Should be running on,” in her last two works over the Del Mar surface.

After reviewing National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s workout reports and studying her pedigree, I placed Tandora (#3) on my Horses to Watch after she failed to defeat one horse to the wire in her career debut back on June 17 behind Tryst. She went off as the clear 5-1 third choice in her first start based on her excellent reviews from National Turf’s Andy Harrington, a superb pedigree to win sprinting, and trainer Phil D’Amato record with first time starters debuting in a maiden special weight dirt sprint. She is by the excellent sire Candy Ride out of the dam Tanda. She won of five of fourteen starts including the Gr. 3 Santa Paula Stakes, Railbird Stakes, and Rancho Bernardo Stakes in addition she is Gr. 1 placed and Tandora is her first foal. Trainer Phil D’Amato has won at excellent 25% (12-for-48) the past five years with first time starters debuting in a maiden special weight dirt sprint per DRF Formulator and entered her first start with a pair of B works per National Turf’s Andy Harrington. All the reasons explained why this bay filly was sent off as the third choice at 5-1 and she failed to run to her workouts as she finished last behind gate to wire Seaside Glory. She did not break in great order leaving the gate, trailed behind the contested speed duel between Seaside Glory and Brainspin, and was not wisely wrapped up through the stretch finishing twenty-lengths behind the winner. However she deserves another chance when you consider she had worked very well into her debut and now out of her first start for trainer Phil D’Amato who does well with second time starters. She enters this with a pair of B workouts on July 18 and July 25 per Andy Harrington including a crisp five furlong move on July 25 where she worked in company with my Race 8 top choice Excavation with the comment “Willing drill with Excavation coming back with grit,. Last 4f in 47.2. Certainly better than last.” Trainer Phil D’Amato is 20-4-6-0 (20%) with second time starters in a maiden special weight dirt sprint per DRF Formulator and gets blinkers on for the first time. Jockey Martin Garcia rides her for the first time and I am going to give her another chance especially now that she is a generous 20-1 on the morning line.

In my exotics I will use two horses to beat the two morning line favorites from finishing first or second. Breathe (#4) did not have any visible excuse when she ran third beaten 3-¾ lengths but my theory in her July 17 race was she was given a clear schooling race as her stablemate Brainspin won that race. She was bet down to the role of favorite and found herself in a comfortable spot pressing the pace three wide through very slow fractions for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-9, -12) and offered very little through the stretch to be a clear third behind her stablemate winner. She has trained well for her first start and exit that debut effort with B work on August 1 that Andy Harrington commented “Easy pull to the 7f pole breezing all the way in 36.0, 48.1.” Trainer John Sadler wins at an excellent 26% (5-for-19) the past three-years with second time starters in a maiden special weight dirt sprint per DRF Formulator and lures Tyler Baze off my top choice. This $310,000 Haynesfield filly deserves another chance. Pragmatical (#6) will make her second career start off 923-day layoff but she enters her first start on the main track with twelve workouts including a pair of B workouts at Los Alamitos on June 27 and July 9 per National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant. She ran very well in her only start sitting close to the early lead, taking over the front at mid-stretch, and was swallowed up by the closers the final furlong.

The Play: I doubt that we will get the 20-1 on Tandora as he well backed in his debut and has worked well to merit another chance.

WIN bet on (3) TANDORA

Main Exactas: 3-4, 3-6. Small reverse for each.

Small Exacta: 3-7. No reverse.

Race 7: Allowance N1X,1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds

The early pace of this one-mile route promises to be hotly contested and set it up for those coming from just off the pace or rallying from mid-pack or towards the rear of the field. TimeformUS shows Spanish Hombre, Annie’s Candy, and Lauren’s Ladd fleeing the gate to vie for the early lead. The two morning line favorites, Bombard and Alaskan Son, will be position behind this trio of early leaders along with Curlin Rules. Tristan’s Trilogy will be in mid-pack away from this anticipated fast early pace with Trinitas Soldier, Barton Lodge, and Chewy Round Town towards the rear of the field.

A handsome chestnut son of Curlin, I expect Curlin Rules (#10) to make significant move forward in his first start on the turf for a trainer that has excelled with his starters making their first start on the turf and based on his work over this Jimmy Durante turf course plus his turf laden pedigree I look for Curlin Rules to spring the minor upset. He had no excuse in two of his last three starts on the main track. In the California Chrome Stakes on April 30 at Los Alamitos he stalked the early pace in a comfortable spot on the rail behind the early duel between Rare Candy and Uncle Lino as those two sailed thru a very slow early pace for a half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-10, -4). He continued on the rail around the far turn, dropped back into the stretch, and offered very little beaten 16-¼ lengths. In his next start on May 29 he had another perfect journey prompting a moderate early pace set by the favorite Rare Candy early, fought on gamely between rivals all the way to mid-stretch, and was no match behind subsequent Gr. 3 Affirmed winner Dalmore where the winner sat a perfect trip in third only 1-½ lengths behind the dueling leaders after a half mile. He added the blinkers for the first time in the Gr. 3 Affirmed on July 2 and lost all chance when he stumbled right at the start with jockey Victor Espinoza wisely wrapping up on this colt through the stretch beaten 21-lengths behind Dalmore. The $375,000 Keeneland September 2014 yearling purchase will now remove the blinkers and try the turf for the first time and both moves have proven to be winning moves from the John Sadler barn. According to DRF Formulator he has won at 26% clip (6-for-23) removing the blinkers and is respectable 15% (9-for-60) with his starters trying the grass for the first time. This year he had Skelton Pass (June 4, 2016, $24.00-1) won in his first start on turf and first start routing and Langham (July 15, 2016, $4.60) ran second beaten three-quarters of a length behind Alaskan Son in his first start on turf and routing as both were trained by John Sadler and owned by his main client Hronis Racing LLC. Although Curlin is only a 12% first time turf sire the dam of Curlin Rules, Awe That, has proven to be a very productive producer of turf winners. She has produced seven starters with FIVE turf winners including multiple turf route winners Screaming Skylar (2-for-6) and Dynafortwo (3-for-12). This chestnut returned with three workouts here at Del Mar including a five furlong 1:00 ⅗ move on the turf on July 31 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B commenting “a tad green over the turf but leveled out late in 38.1, 101.3 (23.2 LQ) galloping out very well around the turn. May have been a turf horse all along; blinkers off.” Jockey Victor Espinoza has been aboard for half of trainer John Sadler’s six wins this meet from seven mounts and post position ten is 3-for-8 this meet. Although he lacks form on turf he is trained by a conditioner that excels with starters trying turf for the first time, removing blinkers, and is beautifully bred to handle the surface switch makes Curlin Rules my upset special to start the Guaranteed $600,000 Late Pick 4.

In my exotics I will use three horses including the two morning line favorites but of the three I am most intrigued by longshot Barton Lodge (#6). The Irish bred son of Fastnet Rock has been the victim of two very tough trips in his two starts in the United States. He was dismissed as the longest shot on the tote board on April 3 and he was bothered at the start and dropped back to last early behind very tepid early pace set by the gate to wire winner Beach Patrol through the first half mile (23.33 and 47.46). Jockey Abel Lezcano attempted to split rivals leaving the backstretch and into the far turn but had to check badly between rivals, dropped back to last, and did not produce a rally in a race where the first three finishers ran 1st, 2nd, and 3rd after a half mile. The form of that race was flattered when the winner returned to run second beaten a nose in the Gr. 2 American Turf at Churchill Downs earning a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. In his last start on April 29 at Keeneland he pulled jockey Feroux Geroux very hard past the stands for the first time, he was able to settle down, dropped over into the two path into the first turn and raced in between rivals through the next half mile. He moved up in traffic on the far turn, split rivals, and ran evenly to the wire to defeat more than half the field in a respectable effort. He has returned with six workouts at Los Alamitos including a B- move on August 1 per National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant. With the anticipated fast early pace I look for Jamie Theriot to allow his mount to drop back and make that one patent late run into the far turn. Bombard (#2) is reunited with jockey Flavien Prat who was aboard his maiden victory on June 4 at Santa Anita. He managed to defeat more than half the field on July 16 where his trouble is not as significant as his 3wd stretch, steadied ⅛ comment in the Daily Racing Form suggest. He enjoyed a beautiful trip behind the contested early battle for the lead among Fabozzi, Unapologetic, It’s the Ice, and Horse Greedy after the first six furlong. He was angled three wide into the stretch and could not keep up with the late kick of Lucky Bryan as he steadied as he was outrun by the winner through the stretch. He might have finished third but was not going to impact the first two finishers. Alaskan Son (#3) defeated a sub-par maiden field in the final race on closing day holding off the late rally of first time starter Langham who probably was best.

The Play: I strongly feel that Curlin Rules will take to the turf beautiful based on pedigree, his trainer’s success with starters making their first start on turf, and his most recent workout on the surface. I will only suggest a small win bet on Barton Lodge because his probable odds will probably be very generous after two tough trip in North America. I will single Curlin Rules in my recommend Pick 3 play ending with La Jolla Handicap.  

WIN bet on (10) CURLIN RULES

Small WIN bet on (6) BARTON LODGE.  

Main Exactas: 10-2, 10-3, 10-6. Small reverse for each.

Pick 3: 10 / 4, 7 / 2, 3, 6, 9 = 1 x 2 x 4 x $2 = $16

Pick 3: 2, 3, 6, 10 / 4, 7 / 2 = 4 x 2 x 1 x $2 = $16

Total Wager: $32

Race 9: Gr. 3 La Jolla Handicap, 1-1/16 Miles, Three-year olds

The early pace of today’s co-feature La Jolla Handicap will be similar to the opening day feature Oceanside Stakes and TimeformUS pace projector anticipates a fast early pace to set up for those coming from just off the early lead or closing from far back. Mr. Roary will go for the early lead but will be prompted by his pace rival Imperious One into and around the first turn. The second choice on the morning line favorite Moonlight Drive will get a ideal trip just behind these two dueling leaders tracking them in third. In behind this trio are Free Rose, Oceanside Stakes winner Monster Bea, and Ebadan. I expect horses such as Liam the Charmer, Dressed in Hermes, and Lucky Bryan to be closing with a furious rally late benefiting from an anticipated fast pace.

The morning line favorite Monster Bea will merit the role of favoritism after winning the Oceanside Stakes by 2-¼ lengths at 12-1 under today’s rider Gary Stevens who remains aboard for the fourth time. Although he will be used on some of my wagers, I will use him defensively because he has been the beneficiary of two very good trips in his last two victories. He settled into a dream stalking trip on June 10 stalking the early pace from the rail, split rivals to inherit the lead behind two leaders that weaken badly to finish 8th and 9th and won going away. In his Oceanside Stakes victory he was kept in the clear on the outside in mid-pack behind a blistering pace battle contested by Mr. Roary and Imperious One, moved up on the far turn with dead aim on favorite Moonlight Drive and kick past that rival to win going away covering 16ft and 8ft more than the second and third-place finishers. The 93 Beyer Speed Figure in the field is the top last race figure but gives him no advantage over others in this field that will offer better value.

I have longed been a fan of Liam the Charmer (#2) because of her pedigree that I am very familiar with. She is a daughter of the dam Charm the Giant who was a multiple stakes winner on the turf including Gr. 3 Wilshire and earned $294,734 routing on the turf. The second dam, Olympic Charmer, was perfect in two starts on the turf earning $109,800 routing on the turf. The Smart Strike colt was unlucky not to break his maiden in his second career start on February 20 where he had to navigate three wide trip early, moved up four wide on the far turn, took a brief lead only to be challenged by the 1-2 favored winner Undeniable U and refused to yield easily losing by three-quarters of a length finishing five-lengths ahead of the rest of field all the while covering 11 feet more than the winner in this excellent first race on the turf. He returned from a 78-day layoff on May 8 and with a smoother stalking trip he blasted home to the wire by 5-¼ lengths defeating a key race field where the third-and-ninth-place finishers came back to break their maiden with improved Beyer Speed Figures of 84 and 77 respectively. After this maiden victory he was prompted entered in the Rainbow Stakes on June 18 at Santa Anita where he was stretching back out to 1-⅛ miles the same distance of his better than looked runner-up performance in his second career start and ran third beaten a half-length behind the 38-1 gate to wire winner Mr. Roary. The dark bay or brown colt had a terrible wide trip. The Mike McCarthy trainee was forced to break from post position eleven in a eleven horse field and was caught three wide around the first turn, dropped back briefly into the backstretch, began to pick up momentum on the far turn while four wide, angled widest of all into the stretch, and delivered fast closing rally to fall a half-length short. In order to show the extent of his wide trip, one only has to review the Trakus chart. He covered 69ft, 39ft, and 59ft more than the winner, second-place finisher Ralis, and fourth-place finish Lucky Bryan. When you consider the amount of ground he lost and he was beaten only half-length one can argue that Liam the Charmer ran the best race in the Rainbow Stakes. The form of that race received an upgrade when the fourth-and-seventh place finishers returned to win their next start with improved 91 and 88 Beyer Speed Figures in their next start. He will make his first start off a 49-day layoff with four works to suggest he has recovered well from his tough trip in his most recent start including a smart B work on July 31 that Andy Harrington commented “Prat up; breezing all the way while always best over recent runner-up Longstocking in 38.0, 101.4.” He will get a significant post position upgrade after drawing the far outside post in two of his last three starts he draws post position two where he will workout a terrific trip stalking in mid-pack along the rail behind anticipated fast pace battle contested by Mr. Roary and Imperious One. Santiago Gonzalez takes over in the irons for the first time and with three wins on the turf this meet he is more than a capable substitute replacement. He will be a square price and with a cleaner trip merits upset status.

In my exotics I will use two horses that exit the Oceanside Stakes and one horse that exits a tough trip victory on the second day of the meet. Lucky Bryan (#6) ran behind our top choice when he finished fourth in the Rainbow Stakes but that was his second start following two hundred and seventeen day layoff. He made his third start following that long layoff on the second day of the meet and got up as the mild 4-1 favorite over my top choice in that race All the Marbles to win by a nose. The son of Lookin at Lucky was forced to break from the outermost post twelve in a twelve horse field broke fine but was navigated towards the rear of the field without losing a lot of ground into the first turn sitting in the two path through the first half mile. He launched his move three wide on the far turn, eased out seven wide for a clear run as he was drifting in thru the stretch, but straighten up and rallied to catch my 10-1 top choice on the wire to win by a nose. As with our top choice, he covered 8ft and 56ft more than the second and third place finishers. He enters his second race this meet with a excellent B work per Andy Harrington on July 31 that he caught faster than the official time stating “Big sort bounced out big from late try reaching home in 37.0, 100.4 (23.4 LQ) out fluidly around the turn.” The John Sadler trainee will benefit from a contested pace by Mr. Roary and Imperious One and if Victor Espinoza can keep him from drifting in through the stretch he can duplicate his come from behind victory. Moonlight Drive (#3) ran second behind Monster Bea in the Oceanside Stakes and he ran very well when you consider he was making his first start off a one hundred and fifty one day layoff. In that race he chased the spirited speed duel  between Mr. Roary and Imperious One in a perfect spot in fourth early, moved up leaving the far turn into that fast pace to take over the lead at the top of the stretch, and was collared by the opportunistic closing winner. Flavien Prat takes over in the irons and when he teams up with Bob Baffert they win at a 50% (6-3-0-1) the past five years. Ebadan (#9) finished tenth beating only one horse to the wire in the Oceanside Stakes but this was inconclusive performance. He settled towards the rear behind the fast pace speed duel early, moved up along the rail, split rivals into the stretch, but had to steady sharply behind the tiring leaders Mr. Roary and Imperious One when a hole did not develop in the stretch and was wisely wrapped up through the stretch. His third-place finish on June 12 fits very nicely in this field and will be a huge price versus his 5-1 odds in the Oceanside Stakes where he was the third betting choice.

The Play: I will look to beat morning line favorite Monster Bea from finishing either first or second and hope that Liam the Charmer gets that coveted ground saving stalk and pounce trip under Santiago Gonzalez. I will single Liam the Charmer in the final leg of my suggested Pick 3 that starts in Race 7 and we are live in the Pick 3 I will still recommend playing a WIN bet on him.

WIN bet on (2) LIAM THE CHARMER

Main Exactas: 2-3, 2-6. Small reverse for each.

Small Exacta: 2-9. Small reverse.