Spielberg Looks for the Spot Light in Del Mar Futurity

 Race 7: N.K. ROCKET MAN (#11, 10-1)

The morning line favorite and bridesmaid Tropical Terror who has finished second in six of his last nine starts routing on the turf including last time out when he missed by a nose behind slow early pace set by the gate to wire winner Hammering Lemon. Do not be fooled by his margin of defeat to indicate that today will be the day he breaks his maiden. In some of his other runner up efforts, Tropical Terror lost by a neck, three quarters of a length, and a half length as this Golden Balls gelding always comes up short. Instead, I went back to my horses to watch this meet and landed on N.K. ROCKET MAN who after reviewing the past performances one can say that his debut on August 8 was nothing more than a prep to stretch him out to two turns, a distance that his pedigree suggests he will adore. He is by terrific turf influence Unusual Heat out of the dam This Means War who won her first two starts on turf including one mile California bred Allowance N1X for today’s trainer Dean Pederson. Her second dam, Top Of Our Game, is another turf influence as she won four of eighteen starts on the turf and was stakes placed on the turf. Based on a limited sample, trainer Dean Pederson was winless with his previous two starters making their debut sprinting on the turf and with his distance oriented pedigree and trainer that prefers to give his maidens a race in their first start, N.K. Rocket Man was using his August 8 race as nothing more than a prep to stretch out and that is exactly how one can explain his fourth place finish. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran inside midpack, reacting badly to tight quarters entering the turn, throwing his head, gathering himself for a rail effort in the lane, outkicked for 3rd. He can learn a ton from the trip today.” The one area that was not described in the Handicapper’s Report that I saw on the race replay was the gallop out. According to Trip Notes Pros, on the gallop out he “EXPLODED despite the jock trying not to give him permission to.” There is definetly a lot more substance in N.K. Rocket Man as he makes his second career start and stretches out to one mile for the first time. He has come back with three workouts to indicate he has maintained his form and jockey Thiago Pereira remains in the irons as the go to rider for Dean Pederson barn. With the added ground, better than looked debut effort sprinting on turf, and only making his second career start with plenty of upside in front of him, N.K. ROCKET MAN is the type of choice I prefer in this maiden turf event with the favorite a proven bridesmaid. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (11) N.K. ROCKET MAN at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #11 with #9 Carmelita’s Man, #6 Luvluv, #2 Mamba Cool. Small reverse. 

Race 8: SHANGHAI TRUFFLE (#6, 12-1)

Each Del Mar meet there is always one horse that I identify has tough trips not identified in the running lines and runs in the final week of the meet. This Allowance N1X sprint at six and half furlongs on the main track sees the early pace breaking from post positions two thru four among Magic at Midnight, Happier, and Golden Principal with Magic at Midnight and Golden Prinicipal the quickest early with comparable Moss Pace Figures on the main track and second choice Happier broke her maiden disputing a moderate pace and could be part of this fast pace. If the pace becomes too fast this race could set up perfectly for the late run of SHANGHAI TRUFFLE who has run twice this meet and each race she encountered difficult circumstances that compromised her chances. She returned from a 74 day layoff on July 27 at this same class level at one mile on the main track and tired to be a non threatening third behind the favored winner Harvest Moon but she was compromised by track profile on that afternoon. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “dropped onto the rail heading into the first turn, traveled midfield down the backstretch, bid between foes in the far turn, flattened out midstretch, best of the rest.” What made this effort better than looked was she raced on the rail for the majority of the trip chasing that very fast pace set by Velvet Queen on a main track that featured a strong pro outside bias and this daughter of Shanghai Bobby was pinned on the slower inside paths behind a winner that returned to win Grade 3 Torrey Pines with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The Patty Gallagher trainee broke her maiden for a $50,000 and was eligible for a Starter Allowance event at the same one mile distance on August 16 and the class relief did not help as she finished third but this time her excuse was ill timed ride by jockey Mike Smith. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “raced three-wide at the back of the pack into the first turn, sent five-wide around foes to the front heading onto the backstretch, pushed the tempo three-deep to the far turn, battled four-wide into the lane, stayed on to the wire, won the battle for third.” She lost more ground than the 3-¼ length margin of defeat as she was moved prematurely to press that fast pace while widest in the field. She now makes that all important cut back to one turn with the aforementioned three entrants flashing early speed to set up for her late kick with Thiago Pereira taking in the irons for the first time. The field’s leader in TimeformUS late pace rating, SHANGHAI TRUFFLE is my best longshot bet on the card and I hope we can be anywhere near his 12-1 morning line. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (6) SHANGHAI TRUFFLE at 10-1 or higher. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #2 Magic at Midnight, #7 Been Studying Her. Small reverse for each. 

 

Race 9: INNER GHOST (#12, 15-1)

I do not have anything negative to say about the tepid morning line favorite Rombauer who broke his maiden in his career debut at today’s distance on July 25 here at Del Mar where he finished his last two furlongs in 22.93 seconds defeating two next out winners who returned to earn Beyer Speed Figures of 50 and 48 respectively. Although the European imports Cotopaxi and Ebeko have had comments of making the running or led, the early speed displayed in European does not equal to North America early speed. The one colt that has flashed North America early speed and is attempting to stretch that speed to two turns is INNER GHOST who ships in from Monmouth Park to make his first start around two turns. The homebred son of Ghostzapper is bred to excel at a route of ground as his sire wins at 17% with his two year olds routing on turf and his dam Dreamup won one of three starts as a two-year old and was three for three routing on the main track. She is trained Michael Stidham who excels with two year olds making their debut on the turf sprinting as he has connected at a gaudy 43% (30/13-4-4) the last five years which explains why Inner Ghost received action in his career debut going off at 9-2 third choice and delivered a visually impressive maiden winner that is not captured in his 50 Beyer Speed Figure. According to Trip Notes Pros comments, he “was in the middle of (2) different 3-across lineups in this race with the same horses. Approaching the far turn he and the inside rival dropped back to allow the three wide rival to cross over. At the top of the stretch he and the original inside rival moved up two wide and three wide to form the 2nd 3-across lineup. Gamely battled and won the prolonged stretch drive. Liked the way he galloped out.” He will now make his first start routing on turf in his second career start and in the past five years trainer Michael Stidham has won at 28% (18/5-2-4) with that move. In addition, the trainer and owner tandem have sent winning shippers to Del Mar with Elsa (November 24, 2018, $11.40-1), Alms (November 30, 2019, $2.70-1), and recently with Pixelate in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke who quietly has ridden six turf wins this meet with some of those prices such as Red Lark in Del Mar Oaks takes over in the irons for the first time and the leader in TimeformUS early pace rating is a clear leader in TimeformUS pace projector and I expect him to be on the lead and make every pole a winning one at a fair price as his morning line appears too high. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (12) INNER GHOST at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #12 with #10 Rombauer. Small reverse. 

Race 10: SPIELBERG (#1, 2-1)

This race features the two year olds that ran on August 8 at Del Mar. On that afternoon, Grade 2 Best Pal was won by today’s entrant Weston and four races later a maiden race at the exact same six furlong distance as the Best Pal. The maiden race featured fractions and final time that was faster than the Best Pal and the top two finishers, Dr. Schivel and Spielberg, returned to this spot. Although the former defeated the latter by 5-¾ lengths to earn the field’s highest last race 86 Beyer Speed Figure, I was more impressed by SPIELBERG’s second place finish as he moved early to attack the dueling leaders Noble Reflection and Superman Shaq and was run down by the perfect trip stalking winner who was making his third career start. A cheasnut son of Union Rags who cost $1 million at the Keeneland September 2019 sale which was the highest purchase price from the 63 yearlings by Union Rags at the sale. He was always bred to adore distance of ground as his dam, Miss Sequel, won three of seven starts around two turns on the main track and her only foal to race, High Road, won two of six starts routing on the main track. He received all the support going off as the 4-5 post time favorite with the traditional fast Bob Baffert workouts that impressed mornings observers such as National Turf’s Andy Harrington who raved about this colt’s workouts on July 27 and August 2 with B+ and his barn had sent out two debuting maidens to win in their first start already in the meeting. Breaking from the outermost post position eight in a eight horse, he “tracked the top two, pushing forward 3-wide in the turn, driving to the lead in upper stretch, having no response for the winner, keeping on to hold 2nd,” according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the fourth place finisher, Waspirant, returned on August 29 to break his maiden with a 63 Beyer Speed Figure (seven point improvement) and the pace rival that weakened to finish sixth, second choice Superman Shaq, came back on September 6 to break his maiden impressively by 3-¾ lengths. Although he is a maiden making his second start in this prestigious Grade 1 event, trainer Bob Baffert accomplished the same feat in 2014 when beaten favorite in his debut came back in the Del Mar Futurity and romped and that horse’s name was American Pharoah. Spielberg has continued to train very well for his second start with back to back B workouts according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker. He leads the field in TimeformUS early pace ratings and has the early speed from the rail to make the lead or can elect to stalk if Dixie’s Two Stents and Weston elect to go for the early lead with Abel Cedillo the ideal passenger. As the second choice in this field of six, I expect Spielberg to improve over his debut as my most probable winner on the card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (1) SPIELBERG at 8-5 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #5 Dixie’s Two Stents. Small reverse. 

Race 11: KLONDIKE CREEK (#4, 9-2)

With the dirt sprinter, I’m Busy, entered in this field and that entrant has been on the lead or no more than 1-½ lengths off the lead at the first pace call in his previous seven starts. This race will have an honest pace. Others in this field that look to be forwardly placed on or near the front end are Fabozzi and R Cha Cha as both entrants have triple digit plus TimeformUS early pace ratings and exit dirt sprints. This race is ripe for a horse from just off the pace and no horse fits that profile perfectly then seven year old KLONDIKE CREEK who enters this race in good form having hit the board in his previous four starts with two of them victories, one of the turf and the other on the Tapeta at Golden Gate Fields. Prior to his better than third place finish in his last turf start, he won the Tapeta surface on February 7 where he found himself in second pressing at a very slow early pace according to the Moss Pace Figures (-13,-12) earning corresponding blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. It took the entire length of the stretch for Klondike Creek to wear down the long time leader Irrefutable to win by a neck as the 1-1 favorite. This race was not a strong race as the six horses behind him produced two third-place finishes and four off the board finishes. He returned from a 107 day layoff on May 24 at 1-1/16 miles on the turf and he finished third beaten a half length behind the 32-1 winner who rallied from ninth and last. According to the Trip Note Pros comments, he “secured the dreaded uncovered three to four wide trip throughout. Moved up willingly while still wide on the far turn. Put in a rally in the lane but was out finished late by the top two.” He deserves a pass for this race given the amount of ground he lost throughout. He makes returned off another 106 day layoff but has trained very well ending with five furlong move in 1:02 flat that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B working in company Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf runner up Ivy League with the comment “galloping out a length in front down to the 7/8 pole in 49.3, appearing best, a good work.” He is drawn well in post position four to navigate a ground saving trip into the first turn and makes a huge rider upgrade to Flavien Prat as he and Umberto Rispoli are going down to the last day to determine the leading rider of the summer Del Mar meet. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (4) KLONDIKE CREEK at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #1 Fabozzi, #9 Three Ay Em. Small reverse for each. 

Del Mar Race 7 Pick 5

Race 7: (2) Mamba Cool, (6) Luvluv, (9) Carmelita’s Man, (11) N.K. Rocket Man 

Race 8: (2) Magic at Midnight, (6) Shanghai Truffle, (7) Been Studying Her 

Race 9: (10) Rombauer, (12) INNER GHOST  

Race 10: (1) SPIELBERG

Race 11: (1) Fabozzi, (4) Klondike Creek, (9) Three Ay Em 

Ticket 1: 2,6,9,11 with 2,6,7 with 12 with 1 with 1,4,9      = 4 x 3 x 1 x 1 x 3 x $1 = $36 

Ticket 2: 2,6,9,11 with 2,6,7 with 10,12 with 1 with 1,4,9 = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 x 3 x $0.50 = $36 

Total Wager: $72 

  

Illumination Looks to Repeat History in the Del Mar Debutante

 Race 8: CANOODLING (#6, 8-1)

I have no knocks on the two morning line favorites, Madone and Ivy League, as those two juvenile fillies ran first and second at this distance in their debut on July 31 at Del Mar and they finished 4-½ lengths in front of the rest of the field as both are eligible to move forward. The second preference goes to Madone because of a better draw but the price potential in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf goes to CANOODLING who also debuted on that same July 31 that two morning line favorites but did so in a five furlong turf sprint. The daughter of Pioneer of the Nile was sent off as the fifth choice at 6-1 in her debut as she did not have a particularly strong pedigree for turf or a trainer that does well with debuting maidens sprinting on the turf.  She by respectable 13% turf sire out of the dam unraced Harlan’s Holiday mare Miz Kella who produced one starter, Vanilla Bean Back, who broke her maiden in her career debut sprinting on the main track with a 66 Beyer Speed Figure and this was going to be her first turf starter. Trainer Jeff Mullins has sent only ten starters to make their debut sprinting on the turf recording only two second place finishes and one third. She had trained very well for her debut recording a B work according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington outwokring debut winner and Del Mar Debutante starter Roll Up Mo Money and this work rolled over to her debut victory on July 31 where she was visually impressive. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “was a ½ step slow and broke a bit in at the start, had one beat down the backstretch, gained along the rail around the far turn, angled out three-wide between horses leaving that bend and into the stretch, powered to the front near deep stretch, drew clear to the wire.” The part that was impressive about this maiden win was her gallop out as she continued on past the wire suggesting the distance should pose no issue and she had more to give after this race. The dark bay or brown filly now stretches out and has returned with four workouts including a razor sharp five furlong move in 1:01.3 on August 30 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+ stating this filly “leveled out quite well this morning reaching like a good thing in 26.0, 101.3. There is upside here.” Juan Hernandez who was aboard for that victory remains in the irons and although trainer Jeff Mullins is winless in his previous fourteen starters making their first route race in their second career start, CANOODLING has the ability and potential to overcome that statistic to score the minor upset.  

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (6) CANOODLING at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta Box: #6-#2 Madone and #6-#11 Ivy League. 

Race 9: ILLUMINATION (#5, 4-1)

The universal single in this year’s Del Mar Debutante belongs to the fancied Bob Baffert morning line favorite PRINCESS NOOR who broke her maiden by 2-½ lengths in a gallop on August 22 and delivered an impressive gallop out according to the Trip Note Pros earning the field’s top last race 76 Beyer Speed Figure. If she wins then she wins at odds below her morning line of 8-5 but I do not trust flashy maiden winners such as this daughter of Not This Time considering the conditions she encountered her win. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “was asked to take the front, setting a solid unmolested tempo, cruising clear into the stretch without being asked, pulling away once again when given a brief shake of the rein.” Despite this “in hand” victory, she was able to be loose on the lead through very slow early fractions earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-7, -5) with corresponding blue coded TimeformUS pace figures earning an average 81 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Instead I prefer the higher priced Bob Baffert entrant in ILLUMINATION who has a similar profile as last year’s Debutante winner Bast. The daughter of Uncle Mo ran second in her career debut, added the blinkers for the first time in the Debutante, and she broke her maiden in this race by 8-¾ lengths earning 85 Beyer Speed Figure. A daughter of Medaglia D’Oro was highly regarded at the Fasig Tipton Saratoga August 2019 sale as she was sixth highest priced yearling at $900,000 from the 39 yearlings by that sire and she comes from a black type mare in Light the City who won her first two starts including the Anokia Stakes and was Grade 1 placed as a three year old. The Bob Baffert trainee was bet down to the 3-5 post time favorite on August 15 where she ran second behind the perfect trip stalking debut winner Forest Caraway who appears in this race but this dark bay or brown filly ran a respectable race considering the pace she chased or pressed. In that race, she broke running but quickly was outsprinted by the very fast second time starter Mandragora Seeker who set fractions of 21.43 and 44.44 seconds earning above average Moss Pace Figures (+8,+3) and corresponding red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She bid between rivals at the top of the stretch and fought gamely towards the wire to hold her stablemate Kalypso for second while racing on her wrong lead to the wire which is very rare for a Bob Baffert trainee. The third place finisher returned on September 4 to run second beaten half length in a maiden race. She has returned with two workouts with the blinkers including a five furlong team move working inside of her stablemate and morning line favorite Princess Noor on August 31 in 1:01 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “easy albeit a tad second best inside Princess Noor in 37.3, 101.1. Solid right back; was in blinkers.” Abel Cedillo remains aboard and with the blinkers I do not expect her to go straight for the lead but similar to Bast last year settle just off the pace between Princess Noor and My Girl Red and if she switches leads as she has done in her morning drills then she can give her fancied mate a run for her money at much a higher price. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) ILLUMINATION at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #3 My Girl Red, #6 Forest Caraway. Small reverse for each. 

Race 10: PIXELATE (#4, 3-1) 

The three-year old turf division in Southern California has taken turns beating each other in the past three months. The three major events in Southen California for three year old turf horses are the Cinema won by Hariboux, opening day Del Mar feature Oceanside Stakes won by Hit it a Bomb, and recently the La Jolla Stakes won by Smooth Like Strait. The Del Mar Derby is the fourth race in this division and a fresh face with excellent East Coast turf form ships in for the money. PIXELATE is accustomed to a variety of turf conditions as Del Mar will be his eighth turf course he has tried as he has won or ran second at Arlington Park, Belmont Park, Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Churchill Downs, and Delaware Park. The homebred son of City Zip has not found the winner’s circle in his last three starts but he has earned speed figures in each start that equal to a winning effort in this event and he has faced some of the East Coast best three year old turf horses in his last two starts. He was sent off as the 5-2 third choice in the Audubon Stakes on June 20 at Churchill Downs where his rally was ineffective behind a moderate early pace set by the gate to wire winner Field Pass who returned to win the Translyvania Stakes at Keeneland on July 12 with a 86 Beyer Speed Figure. The Michael Stidham trainee shipped to Delaware Park for the Grade 3 Kent on July 4 and ran a winning race in defeat but was out kicked to the wire by the favored winner Gufo in a race that has returned to be very productive. The dark bay or brown colt settled into a comfortable spot early racing two wide on first turn and down the backstretch behind a fast pace set by the loose leader Sunsation early. He continued racing two wide on the far turn, angled four wide at top of the stretch, put in his bid past mid-stretch but was out kicked by Gufo who rallied from next to last and made the last run to win by a half length in a new course record that earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure as those two finished three lengths clear of third place finisher. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to run second beaten a head in the Saratoga Derby earning 93 Beyer Speed Figure and third place finisher Vanzzy returned to win the Jersey Derby on July 26 at Monmouth Park with a 86 Beyer Speed Figure. He will make his first start off a sixty four day layoff for a trainer who in the past five years has shipped eight starters to Del Mar and has won twice with Elsa (November 24, 2018, $11.40-1) and Alms (November 30, 2019, $2.70-1) both winners owned and bred by today’s owner Godolphin LLC. He has tactical speed to sit in midpack at what should be a brisk pace with hustling rider Edwin Maldonando taking on Dominant Soul and Margot’s Boy tracking that rival into the first turn and down the backstretch. Del Mar’s leading turf rider, Umberto Rispoli (33 turf wins), should navigate a ground saving trip from post four and when the real running begins, have dead aim on the tiring leaders as the most probable winner on the card. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (4) PIXELATE at 9-5 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #2 California Kook, #11 Margot’s Boy, #12 K P All Systems Go. No reverse. 

Race 11: BIG STORY (#9, 9-2) 

When I review the horses that have a race under them I am not impressed with them making me prefer a fresh face in the Sunday finale at Del Mar. The morning line favorite Big Flame ran second in his career debut behind Taco Flavored Kisses in a race where the third thru fifth place finishers also returned in this event. The race itself had a moderate early pace with the first three finishers running second, first, and third at each call and earned an average 63 Beyer Speed Figure (Beyer par 65). The form of that race was not flattered when the winner returned to finish third beaten 4-¾ lengths in the I’m Smokin Stakes on September 4 here at Del Mar and third thru fifth place finishers were in a three horse photo finish for the minor awards as visually this was not an impressive race. The other horse with experience, Alpine Thunder, received positive comments from Trip Notes Pros with the comment “galloped out HUGE.” The issue with his race was it happened 107 days ago and he was a veterieran scratch on June 28 in a similar maiden race at Los Alamitos. The winner of that May 22 race, Positivity, won the Graduation Stakes earning a below average 60 Beyer Speed Figure and from the five horses that ran behind the winner it has produced only one third place finish with four horses off the board in their next race. From the horses making their career debut in the finale, BIG STORY was the entrant that appealed to me the most. Although from a pedigree perspective BIG STORY is not bred to win at this six furlong distance as his sire, Mr. Big, has won at 7% (2-for-29) in the past five years with two-year old sprinting on the main track and he is out of an unraced dam and Big Story in her first starter. However, trainer Mark Glatt historically has done well with debuting maidens sprinting on the main track at Del Mar and this gelding has really impressed National Turf’s Andy Harrington in his training to suggest he can overcome his lack of precoious breeding to win in his career debut. In the past five years, trainer Mark Glatt has sent twelve two-year olds making their debut sprinting on the main track at Del Mar and connected with only two of them for a 17% win rate but those two winners were not favored. Collusion Illusion (July 21, 2019, $5.20-1) and Vai (August 28, 2016, $8.00-1) were ready to win their debut for trainer Mark Glatt and My Mandate (August 12, 2018, $6.80-1) ran second in his first start. The gray or roan gelding has thrived in his training with his last two workouts here at Del Mar receiving B from National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a five furlong team drill in 1:01 3/5 with stablemate and today’s rival Suzie Qzz Brother on August 28 that he stated “tracked and ran away from race mate Suzie Qzz Brother in a faster than given 25.0, 49.3, 101.3. Nice kick here.” In a race where the horses with experience are below average, BIG STORY brings excellent worktab and trainer who has done with well debuting maidens at Del Mar to suggest that this gelding is ready and roll in his first start as he lures leading rider Umberto Rispoli in the irons. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (9) BIG STORY at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #9 with #10 Big Flame, #4 Lil Nas. No reverse. 

Del Mar Race 8 Pick 4

Race 8: (2) Madone, (6) Canoodling, (11) Ivy League 

Race 9: (3) My Girl Red, (5) ILLUMINATION, (6) Forest Caraway 

Race 10: (4) PIXELATE

Race 11: (9) BIG STORY

Main Ticket: 2,6,11 with 5 with 4 with 9 = 3 x 1 x 1 x 1 x $5 = $15

Ticket 1:    2,6,11 with 3,6 with 4 with 9 = 3 x 2 x 1 x 1 x $2 = $12 

Total Wager: $27

Del Mar Race 8 Pick 3

Race 8: (2) Madone, (6) Canoodling, (11) Ivy League 

Race 9: (3) My Girl Red, (5) ILLUMINATION, (6) Forest Caraway 

Race 10: (4) PIXELATE

Ticket 1: 2,6,11 with 5 with 4    = 3 x 1 x 1 x $4 = $12 

Ticket 2: 2,6,11 with 3,6 with 4 = 3 x 2 x 1 x $2 = $12 

Total Wager: $24 

 

Del Mar Race 9 Pick 3

Race 9: (3) My Girl Red, (5) ILLUMINATION, (6) Forest Caraway 

Race 10: (4) PIXELATE

Race 11: (9) BIG STORY

Ticket 1: 5 with 4 with 9    = 1 x 1 x 1 x $5 = $5 

Ticket 2: 3,6 with 4 with 9 = 2 x 1 x 1 x $2 = $4 

Total Wager: $9 

Raymundos Secret Finds Perfect Pace Scenario in the Mabee

 Race 3: WHIRL CANDY (#4, 5-1)

The morning line favorite, Seiche, exits a third place finish on August 15 and now stretches out in his second career start. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the son of Super Saver “trailed badly, moved closer around the far turn, tried to come through inside the leader, but did not have clear sailing past midstretch allowing the winner first run, one-paced when clear, missed the place.” The even running style suggests he should relish the two turns but his subsequent training after that respectable effort and his trainer’s surprisingly lack of success with second start maiden stretching out for the first time leaves Seiche vulnerable as the favorite. He worked a half mile on August 30 in 49.3 that Handicapper’s Report clocker reported “did not look as good as usual in this five furlong work, wearing blinkers, going off from the 1/2 mile pole, opening 1/4 in 24.4, raising his head crossing the wire while being coaxed along in 49.1, still being coaxed down to the 7/8 pole in 102.0, so-so work, a bit disappointing this week,” for C+ move. Secondly, trainer Bob Baffert is only 8% (3-for-39) the past five years with his trainees making their second start stretching out to a route on the main track for the first time. I am looking elsewhere and in this race a horse that made my horses to watch list on July 26 for his game third-place finish over this same layout. WHIRL CANDY had finished off the board in his first three starts before trainer Richard Baltas decided to geld him, took the blinkers off and try routing on the main track for the first time in his fourth career start and he ran his best race finishing third earning the co highest last race 77 Beyer Speed Figure where he earned this figure under very difficult circumstances. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “raced to the front, left the rail open into the first turn, settled on the leader’s flank, pressed the tempo to the far turn, took command, dueled into the lane, led to deep stretch, tagged for second.” This was a very fast early pace earning kamikaze Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+21,+10) and earning corresponding red coded TimeformUS pace figures. The pace was so fast it saw the leader, Winner’s Club, tire to finish eighth beaten 19-½ lengths as this son of Twirling Candy won the battle for the early lead but lost the war. He has returned with four workouts including best of 28 five furlong move on August 28 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a respectable B- stating “asked for a good work, opening ⅜ in 35.2, asked through the stretch, up in 59.4, a decent work, but let run.” The speed of this field and retaining the services of Flavien Prat this dark bay or brown gelding will flash his speed to the first turn and with an easier pace scenario can race gate to wire as one of two recommended singles on your multi-race wagers on Saturday Del Mar card. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) WHIRL POWER at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #2 Charlito, #8 A.P. Pharoah. Small reverse for each. 

Race 8: LIBERAL (#4, 12-1)

The morning line favorite Whopping Jay will make his third start this meet and exits a win versus California-bred Allowance on August 14 but his status as the favorite is really based on his second place finish in the California Dreamin Stakes where he finished second beaten only a half length behind the favored perfect trip and five time winner Galilean. That California bred stakes event was not the most productive. Out of the also ran, Take the One O One, who returned to the main track to win Allowance N2X with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure, six horses returned from that race producing one winner, one second place finish, and four horses finishing off the board including the Galiean who finished fifth in the Del Mar Mile on August 23 duplicating his 90 Beyer Speed Figure. His win on August 14 was against a weak field of California-breds Allowance N1X. The third place finisher Jetovator is a five time loser at that class level and the field was bunched at the wire with the first five finishers seperated by only 2-¼ lengths at the wire. Instead I am going to prefer a horse taking a step up in class but faced a key race field in his last race. LIBERAL has only a N2L win on the turf on May 16 at Santa Anita but that race was an indication that this Irish bred was rounding into form. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “settled at the back of the pack, traveled willingly along the inside down the backstretch, rallied under cover into contention in the far turn, split runners into the lane, bid between runners midstretch, rallied to the lead, powered through the wire.” The field was well strung out behind him a sign of a quality victory and the runner up returned to win earning a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. He returned from a 83 day layoff on August 7 and ran into a productive field finishing second behind the runaway winner Scarto. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “had only his stablemate beat inside, picked off horses along the rail around the far turn, came out leaving that bend, no threat to the winner, up for the place. He was helped by the raceshape.” The raceshape did aid his rally as the fractions were fast enough to earn a red coded TimeformUS pace figure and the form of this has already been flattered. The winner returned to win Allowance N1X on August 31 with a 87 Beyer Speed Figure, third place finisher returned to run second on the main track in a Starter Allowance earning 81 Beyer Speed Figure, and the fifth place finisher returned to run second earning a 77 Beyer Speed Figure in Allowance N1X on the turf at Golden Gate. The Patrick Gallagher trainee has returned with an easy maintenance half mile work in 49.2 on August 29 and retains the services of jockey Drayden Van Dyke for the third straight time. He will make his first start at this 1-⅛ miles but with his excellent post position (four), he should save ground leaving the chute and around both turns and with any clear sailing at the top of the stretch flash that potent late kick at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) LIBERAL at 8-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #3 Dubby Dubbie, #5 Rocky Tough. Small reverse for each. 

Race 9: TOBACCO ROAD (#7, 6-1)

The bet against in this race goes towards the second choice on the morning line Camby who makes his second start at this N3L class level after finishing third as the 5-2 second choice on August 9 here at Del Mar. Given the trip he encountered with moderate early pace to chase or pressed, this son of Candy Ride no excuse. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “raced midfield to the far turn, bore down on the lead four-deep to the quarter-pole, briefly poked his nose in front, raced five-wide into the lane, bid to deep stretch, best of the rest.” The part about that note was that he failed to kick on from mid-stretch to the wire as he hung badly losing second to Self Taught who was a 1-½ length off the lead at the eighth pole and Camby failed to finish the job to win or finish second. The horse who exits the fastest races and is nice price on the morning line goes to the closer TOBACCO ROAD who will need the right trip and pace scenario for him to get over bridesmaid status of six combined seconds or thirds from 22 starts but he finds the right field this afternoon to get him over his tendency to finish second or third. He made his first start at Del Mar on opening day at this N3L class level where he caught the razor sharp front runner Julius in a highly rated event for the class level (86 Beyer Speed Figure). According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “had one beat cantering on his own 11 lengths down, beginning his long march forward through foes with an inside path in the turn, sustaining his long effort to snatch 2nd late.” The early pace that Julius set as the uncontested leader was moderate according to the Moss Pace Figures (+2,+4) and the validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to win a Starter Allowance on August 2 with 86 Beyer Speed Figure and then ran second in Allowance N1X with an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. This runner up effort gave his connections confidence to enter him in a Starter Allowance on August 15 and he ran into another highly rated event (86 Beyer Speed Figure) won the “Ship and Win” favored winner Pyron. In that race, he “lagged at the rear two-deep, passed the back markers outside around the far turn, four-wide for the drive, late gain, won the battle for the show.” He now drops back to N3L and returns with a half-mile maintenance work on August 27. He should get pace for his late run with morning line favorite Street Image going for the early lead stretching out a furlong from his last two starts and will get pressure from Octopus drawn outside of him. If that pace scenario materializes then I expect jockey Ricky Gonzalez to allow Tobacco Road to settle early and will grind away through the stretch to pick up the tiring leaders in the final furlong. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (7) TOBACCO ROAD at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #7 with #4 Street Image, #11 Red Valor. Small reverse for each. 

Race 10: RAYMUNDOS SECRET (#8, 2-1)

With four victories on the turf, two off the board finishes, and making his second start off 293 day layoff and for trainer Phil D’Amato I see RAYMUNDOS SECRET only improving in her second race this year as the morning line favorite. The daughter of Treasure Beach two off the board finishes including in last year’s Del Mar Oaks was the result of this filly going too fast too soon. In her last start of 2019, Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes, the bay filly got caught in a vicious speed duel with 29-1 longshot Giza Goddness as those two opened up a 2 and 1-½ length lead on the rest of the field through fast fractions of 45.01 and 1:08.44 for the first six furlongs that were fast enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She remained in the battle with that rival all the way to mid stretch before finally giving way to finish fifth in a very good effort considering the fast pace set it up for the horses coming from off the pace as the first, third, and fourth place finishers rallied from sixth, seventh, and ninth after the first half mile as Giza Goddness and Raymundos Secret ran the two best races in that that race. She returned from a 293 day layoff in her first start for trainer Phil D’Amato in a Allowance N2X on August 14 and she made her four year old debut a winning one but her neck margin of victory is deceiving as was really only asked to run the last eighth of a mile. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “eased her way back to sit in the leader’s draft, looking primed in the turn, waiting for room in upper stretch, bulling her way out midstretch, kicking strongly to get up in the final stride.” The two parts of this victory that was impressive was she completed her final quarter of a mile in co fastest 23.34 seconds and did so against the race shape as the second and third place finishers ran first and second throughout and second part was she galloped out strongly after the wire towards the backstretch as this was a perfect prep for the stretch out to 1-⅛ of the Mabee. She is the leader in TimeformUS early pace ratings and should navigate the lead into the first lead with Flavien Prat remaining in the irons as the Southern California filly and mare turf division has taken turns in defeating each other this year. She comes into the race with impressive five furlong move on the turf course on August 30 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave her a B stating “five furlongs over the sod with the dogs up, we had the final 1/2 of this work in 48.3, never asked at all, striding out well to the wire, a good work for the recent winner, who will likely surface in the Mabee closing weekend.” In the past five years on the turf course here at Del Mar in Graded Stakes, trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Flavien Prat have connected at gaudy 38% (13/5-2-0) and they look to continue that successful trend with Raymundos Secret as my second single on the Saturday Del Mar card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (8) RAYMUNDOS SECRET at 8-5 or better. 

Trifecta part-wheel: 8 with 2 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 = $15 for a $3 Wager 

Trifecta part-wheel: 8 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with 2 = $5 for a $1 Wager. 

Race 11: TIZAMAGICIAN (#1, 8-1)

The morning line favorite Nolo Contesto has developed a bad case of finishing second. Since defeating the now retired and last year’s morning line favorite for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, Omaha Beach, the son of Pioneer of the Nile has finished second in three subsequent fast main track events including his last two starts. In his last start on August 1 I could not find an excuse for his third second place finish behind his stablemate Shortlist. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran inside 4 lengths down, inching forward midrace, pushing forward 3-wide in the final turn, stalling out on the fading leader in the upper stretch, chasing on after the winner in the lane to earn a clear 2nd.” He ran third chasing the very fast pace speed duel between Rayray and Dreams of Valor who set fast fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures (+15,+5). Instead I prefer a horse that finished behind him in that same race that I expect to make the early lead in this race. TIZAMAGICIAN is a horse that has always promised more than he has delivered in his ten starts. The son of Tiznow has disappointed as the post time favorite in four occasions but I could find excuses for his two debacles on a fast main track where he will be overlooked in the finale. He returned from a 111 day layoff on May 22 at Santa Anita where he was bet down to the 7-5 post time favorite and from a trip standpoint one cannot find a real excuse. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “pushed the pace onto the backstretch, applied heavy pressure down the backstretch, could not go with the winner heading into the far turn, stayed on to midstretch, one-paced to the wire.” The excuses I found in this race are firstly the layoff and secondly the fast pace he pressed chasing or pressing the gate to wire winner Take the One O One as it earned above average Moss Pace Figures (+8,+3). I will a draw a line through his race in the Oceanside Stakes because it was the wrong surface and class level and he returned to the main track at this N1X class level and finished fifth beaten four lengths behind the rail skimming rally winner Shortlist but he had a tough trip that is not described in the Bid 4 wide, weakened comment in your past performances. According to Trip Notes Pro, he “Floated out on the 1st turn by #2, Nolo Contesto. Reach normally wouldn’t have been a big deal except it took him into the 6path and (3) rivals advanced up inside of him. Caught 4W (6deep) entire 1st turn and down the BS. Tugged along to advance 4W into the FT and almost made it to the lead. Began flattening out in the lane and had every excuse to stop running but give him extra credit for continuing to try to the wire. SNEAKY good gallop out.” He has come back with three workouts including a sharp three 59.3 five furlong move on August 26 followed by a maintenance three furlong blow out four days ago. He is drawn on the rail and gets Drayden Van Dyke in the irons for the first time and I expect him to be sent for the early lead as he and Mongolian Legend are the only entrants in this field with triple digit TimeformUS early pace ratings in this field. With aggressive tactics from the start, Tizamagician stands an excellent chance to spring the upset in the finale. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (1) TIZAMAGICIAN at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #3 Strongconstitution, #5 Ronamo, #6 Royal Act. Small reverse. 

Del Mar Race 8 Pick 4

Race 8: (3) Dubby Dubbie, (4) Liberal, (5) Rocky Tough 

Race 9: (4) Street Image, (7) TOBACCO ROAD, (11) Red Valor 

Race 10: (8) RAYMUNDOS SECRET 

Race 11: (1) Tizamagician, (3) Strongconstitution, (5) Ronamo, (6) Royal Act

Main Ticket: 3,4,5 with 7 with 8 with 1,3,5,6 = 3 x 1 x 1 x 4 x $2 = $24 

Ticket 1: 3,4,5 with 4,11 with 8 with 1,3,5,6  = 3 x 2 x 1 x 4 x $1 = $24 

Total Wager: $48  

 

Bombard Looks Set for Upset in Del Mar Mile

 Race 6: OUTLAW (#4, 8-1)

The two morning line favorites, Mayan Warrior and Vander Khan, are stalkers that come from midpack that need a fast pace for their late kick. Mayan Warrior is the most consistent in this field having finished in the money in all four starts with two wins and he comes off a third place finish behind the gate to wire winner P.R Radio Star who was able to set a moderate early pace en route to his third straight victory. His two previous wins both came when he rallied from midpack. Vander Khan finished ahead of only one entrant when defeated by P.R. Radio Star in that same race and he ran third in his prior start behind a slow pace set by the gate to wire winner Posterize. The morning line favorites were compromised by gate to wire winner that was allowed to dictate terms on the front and today’s race sees those circumstances as OUTLAW is the quickest horse early and takes this field gate to wire under Flavien Prat. The son of Violence has finished in the money in one of five starts this year but his last two starts, one at Los Alamitos versus Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses, and last time here at Del Mar he caught fields with abundance of early speed and he will not encounter that scenario in this race. In that fourth place finish versus Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses on June 13 he found two very fast thoroughbreds in Hardcore Troubador and Rule He Will as those two opened up a four length lead on Outlaw down the backstretch and into the turn, Outlaw tipped out at the top of the stretch but offered no late kick as the winner Make it a Triple rallied from next to last in the field of five to win. He stretched out to six and a half furlongs on July 24 and he was part of a vicious speed duel that resulted in the winner, Heart Full of Stars, to rally from last to win. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, Outlaw “broke inward, fighting inside to the turn, slipping back by the ¼ pole, dropping away in the lane.” The early fractions of this race were very fast as it earned above par Moss Pace Figures (+7, +4) and the form of this early pace was flattered when the runner-up, Horse Greedy, returned to win for $22,500 claiming event duplicating his 82 Beyer Speed Figure on August 16. The gelding drops one level in class and shortens up to his preferred six furlong distance where he has yet to finish no worse than second in four starts with two wins. He has maintained his speed with two works including a best of 113 half mile spin on August 16 in 47 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Last 3f working past the line in 35.2 while let run a bit. Maybe enough.” Expect Flavien Prat to be aggressive early and take it to this field on the front end and make every pole a winning one at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) OUTLAW to WIN at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #7 I Belong to Becky, #2 More Honor, #9 Vander Kelen. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: (4) OUTLAW with (3) Synthesis, (6) Worthy Turk, (8) Hootie. 

Race 7: WORTHY TURK (#6, 4-1)

The two morning line favorites, Southern King and Hootie, are two horses that I have notes on that benefited from their recent wins this year. The morning line favorite Southern King visited the winner’s circle on the last day of the spring-summer meet at Santa Anita where he sat a perfect trip in third behind two dueling leaders, Lincoln City and Turn the Switch, on the rail for the first six furlongs, tipped out into the two path at top of the stretch, and it took the entire length of the stretch for Southern King to wear down the stubborn Lincoln City to win by a neck with the runner-up best in that race as he disputed for the early lead. Hootie exits a win over layout on July 27 where he was second to last behind a very fast pace for the first half mile that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figure and he won going away in a race that completely collapsed for closers with the first three finishers rallied from ninth, eighth, and tenth after the first half mile. One horse that finished behind Hootie and third place finisher French Getaway and could have been closer with a cleaner trip is our top choice WORTHY TURK who split the eleven horse field. This Lemon Drop Kid gelding was ultra consistent in his first two turf route starts this year with a win and second place finish before running sixth behind the pace pressing winner Shadow Sphinx on June 20 at Santa Anita where he raced in midpack behind a very fast early pace that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures, loomed up four wide into the far turn, outrun at that point while under a drive on the turn, and ran one paced to the wire to finish sixth. The Peter Miller trainee dropped in for a claiming price of $25,000 on July 27 where he was sent off as the 5-2 post time favorite and did not have the cleanest of journey according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. The chestnut gelding “traveled midfield down the backstretch, waited behind a wall of runners in the far turn, on hold to midstretch, blocked, dove inside, weaved through traffic, briefly clear, in hand across the wire.” Note that both horses that finished in front of him that return today, Hootie and French Getaway, had clear wide runs into the stretch as the latter rallied four wide and the eventual winner rallied five wide into the stretch with Worthy Turk in traffic through the entire stretch and would have been right there with a clear journey. He gets a comfortable four pound break in the weights because he has won only one race at a mile or over since May 23, 2020 and has returned with two works including impressive five furlong move in 1:00.3 on August 15 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “Nifty with Tammy's Window moving up with power in 38.1, 101.4 going 6f in 114.0. Strong out of last.” Flavien Prat remains aboard and with a clean trip I can see him turning the tables on French Getaway and Hootie in a race that starts the late Pick 5. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (6) WORTHY TURK at 5-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #3 Synthesis, #2 French Getaway, #8 Hootie. 

Small Exacta: #3 Synthesis, #8 Hootie with #6 Worthy Turk. 

Race 9: BOMBARD (#2, 10-1)

This is one of the most competitive events you will see on today’s card if you look outside of the two favorites this race is wide open. The morning line favorite Mo Forza returns from a 211 day layoff when he was last seen finishing ninth in the Pegasus World Turf Cup behind the rail skimming rally of subsequent multiple Grade 2 winner Zulu Alpha. Before that debacle, he swept Southern California three-year old turf stakes winning the Twilight Derby and Hollywood Derby. He was bothered by wide trips in his last two starts and he should not get that journey today with post position three, taking the blinkers off, and getting Flavien Prat. Despite the positive B and B+ grades from National Turf’s Andy Harrington, trainer Peter Miller does not do well with his turf route starters returning off layoffs of more than six months as he is 8/0-0-2 with his turf starters returning off a layoff between 180 to 250 days in a route race. The second choice Galilean won the restricted California Dreamin Stakes with a perfect trip over this layout on July 26. He will get support but I am looking elsewhere and landed on BOMBARD who is making his second start off 371 day layoff where he received the perfect tune up for this race with a game second place finish on July 26 sprinting on the turf that sets him up to stretch out to one mile. This seven-year old gelding has shown signs of having a versatile running style in the previous two editions of the Wickker Stakes at this one-mile distance here at Del Mar. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes from the 2018 edition of the Wickker Stakes, this son of War Front “stalked the pace two-deep, did not quicken as the winner ran by him while between horses leaving the far turn, came out four-wide into the drive, finally rallied the final stages, was bumped lightly late by the winner right near the wire, lost the photo.” In the 2019 version of that aforementioned event, the Richard Mandella trainee was able to make the early lead receiving token early pressure from his rival Double Touch, put that rival away at the top of the stretch, opened up a two length lead past mid-stretch, and held off subsequent Grade 1 Pacific Classic winner Higher Power to win by a half length. That was his last race of 2019 and he returned from more than a year layoff in Allowance N3X turf sprint on July 26 and ran very well in defeat behind the rail skimming last to first rally of Sparky Ville to lose by a head. The dark bay or brown gelding flashed good early speed to battle for the lead with the Northern Californian invader Baja Sur as those two locked up in their own little match race all the way to the top of the stretch when Baja Sur poke his head in front but Bombard battled back gamely in deep stretch to retake the lead only to get caught on the wire by Sparky Ville. He galloped out in front of the entire field after the wire as this race served as perfect prep for the stretch out to his preferred distance of one mile. He has returned with two easy maintenance works since that come back effort and draws Drayden Van Dyke for the first time who should get this gelding a ground saving stalk and pounce trip with the probable pacesetter, Kiwi’s Dream, gunning for the early lead from post position nine in this ten horse field. He is the other Richard Mandella trainee that has proven form over this Del Mar turf course and has recency advantage over the others as the best value play in the Del Mar Mile over my second preference Kiwi’s Dream. 

Wagering Strategies: 

Play the (2) BOMBARD to WIN at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #3 Galilean, #9 Overdue, #10 Kiwi’s Dream. 

Small Exacta: #10 Kiwi’s Dream with #2 Bombard.    

Daily Double part-wheel: (2) Bombard, (10) Kiwi’s Dream with (2) Jamming Eddy

Race 10: JAMMING EDDY (#2, 6-1)

The two morning line favorites are vulnerable in this Allowance N1X as Julius has yet to taste defeat in his previous two starts here at Del Mar but those wins came under ideal conditions where he was loose on an uncontested lead and was allowed to dictate moderate fractions in each of those wins on July 10 and August 2. He finds quality other speed in this field where he will most likely not get the early lead that he is accustomed to. Express Train returns off a 331 day layoff where this sprint is being used a prep to stretch out as he broke his maiden by fourteen and a quarter lengths in his second career start and trainer John Shirreffs is 6/0-0-2 with his dirt starters returning off a layoff of more than 180 days in a dirt sprint indicating his starters need a race. Instead, I am going to back a dirt sprinter with recency and can cope with fast fractions and that horse is JAMMING EDDY who exits an excellent runner up effort behind the favored comebacker Microithms on August 2 and a similar performance in this race will be good enough to win. The California bred Square Eddie gelding was an easy winner at this same distance on June 7 where he fought for the early lead, shook free of his rival past the quarter pole, and was “lightly hand ridden down the lane to stay clear to the wire,” according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. This win does come with a negative factor as he set a pressured pace through very slow fractions earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-12,-3). The Peter Miller trainee shortened up an eighth of a mile to five and a half furlongs on August 2 and he ran a winning race earning a close to par 87 Beyer Speed Figure and he had to earn this speed figure the hard way. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “pressed the pace four-deep down the backstretch, loomed large past the quarter-pole, spun his wheels to deep stretch, ran at the leader late, and came up short.” The pace of this sprint was very fast as it was off the chart Moss Pace Figures (+8,+5) and two of the pace rivals that he dueled with, Oil Can Knight and Drop the Chalupa, weakened to finish fourth beaten two lengths and fifth beaten three lengths. He stretches back out to the distance of his previous win two starts back and he drawn in post position two where he is the speed of this field as the others in this field that can challenge him for the lead, Drop the Chalupa, Oil Can Knight, and Shane Zain, will not be able to survive dueling for the lead with Jamming Eddy for the first half mile. Flavien Prat remains in the saddle for the third consecutive time and I expect him to make every pole a winning one at a morning line that is too high on this gray or roan gelding. 

Wagering Strategies:

Play the (2) JAMMING EDDY to WIN at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exactas: #2 with #4 Heartfullofstars, #5 Appreciated, #10 Big Scotty Daddy. 

Small Exacta: #10 Big Scotty Daddy with #2 Jamming Eddy. 

 

Voodoo Song Gets Class Relief in Wickerr

Race 6: TOROSAY (#11, 5-1)

Since returning from a seventy-nine day layoff, this son of Goldencents has managed to finish third in a pair of 5-½ furlong turf events at Santa Anita. A closer inspection of each of those reveals that this Doug O’Neil trainee ran well in each of those races after running into a suicidal speed duel on May 25 and last time chased a impressive gate to wire winner Big Runnuer who missed the track record by 0.05 seconds. In his first start since a fourteenth-place finish Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint behind his stablemate Wildman Jack, Torosay won the pace battle only to lose the war in his comeback race on May 25. He dueled between Smiling Angelo and Reedley through quick fractions, dueled both rivals into defeat to take the lead into the stretch (tired to finish 12th beaten 19-¾ lengths and 7th beaten 5-¾ lengths) and was run down by the mid-pack stalkers in a race that saw the 1-2-4-5 finishers rally from 6-7-8-12. He was the only horse to survive that speed duel and he was a interesting longshot contender when he moved up in class in Siren Lure Stakes on June 21 where he flashed speed to press the pace inside of the eventual winner Big Runnuer on the backstretch, outrun into and around the far turn by that rival chasing that rival, angled outside of that rival into the stretch, and was no match losing second to the opportunistic stalker Mesut who rallied from sixth. Torosay lost nothing in defeat as he did all the dirty work chasing or pressing that gate to wire winner earning the field’s top last race 90 and 114 Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure respectively. The bark bay or brown gelding has come back with two works including B move from National Turf’s Andy Harrington on July 1 that he commented “Under wraps going in total breeze mode outside Too Late waiting all the way in 24.3, 49.1. Still looks happy and healthy.” He finds no entrants with the quality of Big Runnuer in this field, returns to his realistic class level, and should be set for gate to wire or pace pressing victory in his third race into his form cycle at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (11) TOROSAY at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta Box key: #11 with #4 and #8. 

Race 8: VOODOO SONG (#4, 4-1)

The TimeformUS pace projector is red coded that indicates this race will be run at a fast pace. Despite this designation, the speed of this field belongs to this six-year old English Channel horse who has not seen the winner’s circle in almost two years when he captured the Grade 1 Fourstar Dave at Saratoga on August 11, 2018. He made his first start off a 133-day layoff and for trainer Richard Mandella in the Grade 3 San Simeon on March 21 at Santa Anita where he defeated only one entrant to the wire finishing sixth in a seven-horse field. One can dismiss this race as a prep because that trip was the shortest distance he has run in his career and he displayed an even running style through the stretch that would indicate a stretch out to a one-mile would be preferred. He stretched out to his preferred one-mile trip in a ambitious spot, Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile on May 25 where he finished ninth in a ten-horse field where he got into trouble at the start and was involved in a suicidal very fast speed duel that collapsed for the off the pace runners with the first three finishers rallied from 8th, 10th, and 6th after the first half-mile. He was part of a domino effect when rival War of Will hung a left at the start and bothered Voodoo Song who also bothered Next Shares leaving the gate. Despite this awkward start, he recovered to show speed and duel with Blitzkrieg and Neptune’s Storm through 22.16 second opening quarter of a mile. The former took back that speed duel as it was Voodoo Song and Neptune’s Storm ripped through fractions of 44.75 and six furlongs in 1:08.56 seconds. The duel took its toll on Voodoo Song as he was outrun by his pace rival approaching the quarter pole and weakened to ninth. The half-mile and six furlong splits were fast enough to earn TimeformUS red coding to indicate it was a very fast pace. The one note I made out of this race was to monitor the horses that were involved in that fast pace and this had the potential to be a “key” race and subsequent performances prove that was correct. The seventh-and-eighth place finishers, Neptune’s Storm and Blitzkrieg, returned to win Grade 3 San Francisco Mile and Grade 3 American earning Beyer Speed Figures of 97 and 99 respectively and the horse that cost the trouble at the start and chased that fast pace in fourth, War of Will, returned on July 10 to win the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland. Voodoo Song drops in class as the Wickker Stakes is restricted to non-winners of a stakes at one more or mile and field’s leader in TimeformUS early pace rating figures to control the early pace from the start. He has held his speed with three works including two of them a bullet move including half mile spin in 47.1 on June 24 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B commenting “was up at the wire earning the bullet without ask (mate went on) finishing up reaching up nicely. Coming around well.” Drayden Van Dyke takes over in the irons as Mike Smith is at Keeneland to ride the filly Swiss Skydiver in the Grade 2 Bluegrass Stakes.   

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (4) VOODOO SONG at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta Box key: #4 with #3 and #9. 

Race 10: SWEET DEVIL (#12, 8-1)

The pretty chestnut filly by Daredevil exits a fifth-place finish on the main track on May 17 where the first two finishers ran 1st and 2nd around the racetrack. I am going to dismiss this race because she is really bred for the turf as her dam, World Cup, won 4-of-13 starts routing on the turf and her two previous starts on that surface were better than appears on the past performances. She was dismissed at 37-1 in her career debut on January 11 where she ran a respectable race to defeat more than half the field to wire despite racing greenly through the stretch rallying in traffic to lose by only four-lengths and galloped out very well after the wire to indicate additional ground should pose no problem. She stretched out to 1-⅛ miles in her next start and she ran well to finish third beaten only a half-length in a race where she lost ground around both turns and was close to early pace that saw the two leaders weaken to finish fifth and seventh. She was a little head strong early crossing the wire for the first time and was parked three wide on the first turn and into the backstretch chasing the two leaders Nu Pi Lambda and Undisturbed. She made three wide move on the far turn to take over the lead into the stretch and refused to quit easily staying on gamely through deep stretch as the two rivals that outfinished Sweet Devil rallied from seventh and sixth after the first half-mile. One can dismiss her dirt debacle off a ninety-eight day layoff on May 17 because of the surface as that event produced two next out winners with the third-place finisher Crystal Ball broke her maiden gate to wire earning improved 83 Beyer Speed Figure (13 point improvement) and eighth place finisher Full Eclipse duplicated her 54 Beyer Speed Figure dropping into a $20,000 maiden claiming race on June 12. She has come back with four workouts including a five-furlong move in 1:00.4 at Del Mar that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “Easy solo move in 37.1, 100.4 (23.3 LQ) out in 113.3. Clearly better than last.” Former Northern California rider, Juan Hernandez, takes over in the irons and this a live mount for the journeyman as Sweet Devil returns to her preferred surface and will be dismissed because of a poor last race running line. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (12) SWEET DEVIL at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta Box key: #12 with #7 and #11.