Kanderel Looks to Run Down the Favorite in the La Jolla

 Race 6: KALINE (#2, 10-1) 

This is an excellent betting race because I am looking to defeat the two morning line favorites. Tropical Terror and Hammering Lemon are a combined 11/0-6-1 on the turf with the former having lost as the post time favorite three times. Although he ran second in his last start in these exact same conditions, Hammering Lemon should not have lost on July 10 as he enjoyed a comfortable trip on the front end through slow fractions and was worn down by the pace presser Cali Caliente. I respect Luvluv but I believe he will be bet down based on his trainer John Sadler and jockey Umberto Rispoli. Instead I want to back a new face trying turf for the first time and be bred for it and I landed on KALINE. He has run twice over the Tapeta at Golden Gate and each race was an improvement over the previous start. The son of Grazen made his career debut on May 24 where he lacked the early speed to keep up with the leaders racing four wide in midpack down the backstretch and continued that wide through the far turn and into the stretch where he turned in a respectable rally through the stretch to finish fourth against the grain race shape that favored horses on or near the lead with the first two finishers running first and second after the first quarter of a mile as Kaline was the only horse in that field to make up any ground through the stretch. The former Steve Specht trainee stretched out to two turns for the first time and ran into a gate to wire runaway winner Lookin for Revenge who flattered that event by returning to win on July 3 with a 79 Beyer Speed Figure (eight point improvement). In that race, he did the dirty work chasing or pressing the favored winner through fast fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (+6,+4) and was fast enough to earn a red coded TimeformUS pace figure. Kaline was outrun by the winner into the stretch and lost second on the wire. He is now transferred to the barn of Quinn Howley who conditions Indian Peak in the Grade 3 La Jolla and that trainee has a 4/2-2-0 record on the turf. Kaline is bred to adore the surface as her dam Way Up won four of thirteen starts on the turf including two of those routing on the turf. She has produced ten winners from fourteen foals including turf route winners, Wavy Lass (4-for-8), Unusual Way (1-for-4), Laditudefortytwo (1-for-5), Cowboy (2-for-5), and Cali Way (2-for-5). She got acclimated with her surroundings with five furlong move in 1:02.4 on July 30 that Handicapper’s Report clocker stated “not asked in this five furlong maintenance spin, going off in 37.4, moving easily in 102.2, just a leg stretcher for the Golden Gate invader, who should be seen with Cal-bred maidens.” Giovanni Franco takes over in the irons and he has landed a live mount with turf route oriented pedigree for a capable trainer and finds a weak field to graduate with his diploma drawn ideally in post position two. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (2) KALINE at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #1 Luvluv, #3 Table for Ten. Small reverse for each. 

Race 8: GINOBLI (#5, 8-1)

This is a competitive sprint on the turf where the morning line favorite Tribalist is a now nine-year old returning off 221 day layoff. The Tribal Rule gelding is at home returning off extended breaks as this Blake Heap trainee has won off 375 days, 359 days, and 384 day layoffs in the past. However, it has been almost three years since Tribalist has visited the winner circle and even through the Handicapper’s Report clocker has raved about his workouts coming up to this event with consecutive B+ works last his two works, if his connections wanted to protect this horse off the long layoff he could have been eligible for the rule where a horse laid off and has not started for a minimum of 180 days since its last race is not eligible to be claimed but he is being risked for $40,000. Can this nine-year old win? The answer is yes but do I want back him at a short price considering the multiple layoff lines and the fact his connections opted not to protect him off the long layoff. The horses that exit the very fast turf sprint won by Speedy Justice I respect and will use those three underneath my top choice who returns to the turf sprinting. GINOBLI was an impressive gate to wire winner in his second career start and then was reeled back too soon (sixteen days) in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity that was marred by an incident with Storm the Court and Eight Rings soon after the start. He was fourth in his only start on the turf and made his three-year old debut off 126-day layoff in the Grade 2 San Vicente where he gave the undefeated Nadal all he could handle in his first start versus winners. The son of Munnings broke running to flash early speed in a contested speed duel parked four wide down the backstretch and sat just off the favored winner Nadal through the turn and in the stretch where Ginobli had the lead at mid-stretch and was worn down by Nadal as this was a fast pace he contested according to Moss Pace Figures (+11,+8) and earned a red coded TimeformUS pace figure. His two starts at Oaklawn Park were filled with trouble in each start. In his fifth place finish as the 4-5 favoritie, Ginobli missed the start by length and half, rushed up between horses to chase the dueling leaders who contested a very fast first quarter (+11), shuffled back on the turn, and tried his best to re-rally through the lane to split the ten horse field finishing in front of two next out winners. He stretched out to two turns in his last start and broke about a length slow at the start, rushed up between rivals into the first turn only to run up on horses' heels and was parked four wide throughout and remained in the hunt until midway on the far turn and gave way to finish seventh, beaten fifteen lengths. He has returned with four workouts as a new gelding and has impressed Handicapper’s Report clocker with consecutive B works including a visually impressive spin on August 2 where he worked in company with Fivestar Lynch and “took a short advantage in the stretch, then waited on his workmate, definitely going best late in 47.3, never asked, a good work for the three-year-old, who has been gelded since his last start and looked good here.” It appears the time away has helped this three-year old and sprinting is what he does best. With those two ugly running lines disguised in his past performances, I expect Ginobli to be overlooked. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) GINOBLI at 9-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #3 Distant Vista, #4 Torosay, #6 Capture the Sea. Small reverse for each. 

Race 10: KANDEREL (#5, 10-1)

I respect the morning line favorite Smooth Like Strait as the field’s probable pacesetter but he can be challenged for the early lead by Indian Peak who displayed an premature move in his last start, Snow Chief, to challenge for the lead and did display a sharp middle move in a team work on July 30 here at Del Mar according to Handicapper’s Report clocker. The horse I am trying to beat in this race is second choice Storm the Court. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner is winless in four starts this year and now attempts to get back to form with the switch to the turf. He has recorded three turf workouts the past four weeks with the Handicapper’s Report clocker giving them B- with the comment of “appeared to handle the surface.” The main issue with Storm the Court is his pedigree to handle the surface switch. His sire, Court Vision, has produced only 9% (4-for-43) with turf routers the past five years and the information does not get better when you research the dam side. The dam, My Tejana Storm, won three of twelve starts all sprinting on the main track with a career best 92 Beyer Speed Figure and she has produced three winners from four starters. She has had only one starter try the turf, Belleoftheprairie, who won four of twenty-nine starts and won two of six starts on the turf but that was sprinting on the surface. She was winless in four starts routing on turf. Plus with his tactical speed he along with Indian Peak will look to chase or press Smooth Like Strait early and if the pace heats up during the middle part of this mile and a sixteenth event then it will set up very well for the improving KANDEREL. The son of Candy Ride enters this race in peak form having won and finished second in his last two starts and has displayed a wicked turn of late speed to suggest he can run down his rivals in the stretch. The Richard Mandella trainee managed to defeat four others in a key race turf sprint on May 15 that was too short for this colt. He stretched out to one-mile in the Alcatraz Stakes on June 13 where he stalked the uncontested leader Better Trip Nick in fourth early, moved up three wide on the far turn, angled three wide at the top of the stretch, drove to the front past mid-stretch, and safely held off the late bid of A Journey to Freedom defeating two next out winners in the process. Last time out he was dismissed at 17-1 in the Oceanside Stakes where he was compromised by rallying very wide while the favored winner, Hit the Road, enjoyed a perfect ground saving stalk and pounce trip. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran outside in the back half of the field, coiling up for run in the turn, looping 7-wide for the drive, unleashing a strong kick to run by the rest for 2nd.” Kanderel displayed an excellent turn of late speed running his third quarter in the co-fastest 24.15 seconds and ran his last quarter in the field’s best 23 seconds flat. He has returned with three workouts to indicate he has held his form and Juan Hernandez returns in the saddle. The dark bay or brown colt gets four pounds from the favorite and if he can manage to not lose alot of ground on the far turn and he has clear sailing at the top of the stretch then Kanderel can display that powerful late kick to run down Smooth Like Strait to score the upset. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) KANDEREL at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: 5-6. Reverse for half the amount. 

 

 

Voodoo Song Gets Class Relief in Wickerr

Race 6: TOROSAY (#11, 5-1)

Since returning from a seventy-nine day layoff, this son of Goldencents has managed to finish third in a pair of 5-½ furlong turf events at Santa Anita. A closer inspection of each of those reveals that this Doug O’Neil trainee ran well in each of those races after running into a suicidal speed duel on May 25 and last time chased a impressive gate to wire winner Big Runnuer who missed the track record by 0.05 seconds. In his first start since a fourteenth-place finish Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint behind his stablemate Wildman Jack, Torosay won the pace battle only to lose the war in his comeback race on May 25. He dueled between Smiling Angelo and Reedley through quick fractions, dueled both rivals into defeat to take the lead into the stretch (tired to finish 12th beaten 19-¾ lengths and 7th beaten 5-¾ lengths) and was run down by the mid-pack stalkers in a race that saw the 1-2-4-5 finishers rally from 6-7-8-12. He was the only horse to survive that speed duel and he was a interesting longshot contender when he moved up in class in Siren Lure Stakes on June 21 where he flashed speed to press the pace inside of the eventual winner Big Runnuer on the backstretch, outrun into and around the far turn by that rival chasing that rival, angled outside of that rival into the stretch, and was no match losing second to the opportunistic stalker Mesut who rallied from sixth. Torosay lost nothing in defeat as he did all the dirty work chasing or pressing that gate to wire winner earning the field’s top last race 90 and 114 Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure respectively. The bark bay or brown gelding has come back with two works including B move from National Turf’s Andy Harrington on July 1 that he commented “Under wraps going in total breeze mode outside Too Late waiting all the way in 24.3, 49.1. Still looks happy and healthy.” He finds no entrants with the quality of Big Runnuer in this field, returns to his realistic class level, and should be set for gate to wire or pace pressing victory in his third race into his form cycle at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (11) TOROSAY at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta Box key: #11 with #4 and #8. 

Race 8: VOODOO SONG (#4, 4-1)

The TimeformUS pace projector is red coded that indicates this race will be run at a fast pace. Despite this designation, the speed of this field belongs to this six-year old English Channel horse who has not seen the winner’s circle in almost two years when he captured the Grade 1 Fourstar Dave at Saratoga on August 11, 2018. He made his first start off a 133-day layoff and for trainer Richard Mandella in the Grade 3 San Simeon on March 21 at Santa Anita where he defeated only one entrant to the wire finishing sixth in a seven-horse field. One can dismiss this race as a prep because that trip was the shortest distance he has run in his career and he displayed an even running style through the stretch that would indicate a stretch out to a one-mile would be preferred. He stretched out to his preferred one-mile trip in a ambitious spot, Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile on May 25 where he finished ninth in a ten-horse field where he got into trouble at the start and was involved in a suicidal very fast speed duel that collapsed for the off the pace runners with the first three finishers rallied from 8th, 10th, and 6th after the first half-mile. He was part of a domino effect when rival War of Will hung a left at the start and bothered Voodoo Song who also bothered Next Shares leaving the gate. Despite this awkward start, he recovered to show speed and duel with Blitzkrieg and Neptune’s Storm through 22.16 second opening quarter of a mile. The former took back that speed duel as it was Voodoo Song and Neptune’s Storm ripped through fractions of 44.75 and six furlongs in 1:08.56 seconds. The duel took its toll on Voodoo Song as he was outrun by his pace rival approaching the quarter pole and weakened to ninth. The half-mile and six furlong splits were fast enough to earn TimeformUS red coding to indicate it was a very fast pace. The one note I made out of this race was to monitor the horses that were involved in that fast pace and this had the potential to be a “key” race and subsequent performances prove that was correct. The seventh-and-eighth place finishers, Neptune’s Storm and Blitzkrieg, returned to win Grade 3 San Francisco Mile and Grade 3 American earning Beyer Speed Figures of 97 and 99 respectively and the horse that cost the trouble at the start and chased that fast pace in fourth, War of Will, returned on July 10 to win the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland. Voodoo Song drops in class as the Wickker Stakes is restricted to non-winners of a stakes at one more or mile and field’s leader in TimeformUS early pace rating figures to control the early pace from the start. He has held his speed with three works including two of them a bullet move including half mile spin in 47.1 on June 24 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B commenting “was up at the wire earning the bullet without ask (mate went on) finishing up reaching up nicely. Coming around well.” Drayden Van Dyke takes over in the irons as Mike Smith is at Keeneland to ride the filly Swiss Skydiver in the Grade 2 Bluegrass Stakes.   

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (4) VOODOO SONG at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta Box key: #4 with #3 and #9. 

Race 10: SWEET DEVIL (#12, 8-1)

The pretty chestnut filly by Daredevil exits a fifth-place finish on the main track on May 17 where the first two finishers ran 1st and 2nd around the racetrack. I am going to dismiss this race because she is really bred for the turf as her dam, World Cup, won 4-of-13 starts routing on the turf and her two previous starts on that surface were better than appears on the past performances. She was dismissed at 37-1 in her career debut on January 11 where she ran a respectable race to defeat more than half the field to wire despite racing greenly through the stretch rallying in traffic to lose by only four-lengths and galloped out very well after the wire to indicate additional ground should pose no problem. She stretched out to 1-⅛ miles in her next start and she ran well to finish third beaten only a half-length in a race where she lost ground around both turns and was close to early pace that saw the two leaders weaken to finish fifth and seventh. She was a little head strong early crossing the wire for the first time and was parked three wide on the first turn and into the backstretch chasing the two leaders Nu Pi Lambda and Undisturbed. She made three wide move on the far turn to take over the lead into the stretch and refused to quit easily staying on gamely through deep stretch as the two rivals that outfinished Sweet Devil rallied from seventh and sixth after the first half-mile. One can dismiss her dirt debacle off a ninety-eight day layoff on May 17 because of the surface as that event produced two next out winners with the third-place finisher Crystal Ball broke her maiden gate to wire earning improved 83 Beyer Speed Figure (13 point improvement) and eighth place finisher Full Eclipse duplicated her 54 Beyer Speed Figure dropping into a $20,000 maiden claiming race on June 12. She has come back with four workouts including a five-furlong move in 1:00.4 at Del Mar that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “Easy solo move in 37.1, 100.4 (23.3 LQ) out in 113.3. Clearly better than last.” Former Northern California rider, Juan Hernandez, takes over in the irons and this a live mount for the journeyman as Sweet Devil returns to her preferred surface and will be dismissed because of a poor last race running line. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (12) SWEET DEVIL at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta Box key: #12 with #7 and #11. 

Over Emphasize Can Spring Surprise in San Clemente

Friday’s Recap: Total -$100 for the meet. We connected with Oakland Mills but Streak of Luck did not have the smoothest of trips and we move on today’s Saturday’s card. The main action is later part of the card and being Saturday I will focus strictly on WIN bets. 

Race 6: (9) GYPSY BLU

This California bred daughter of Papa Clem is turf sprinting specialist having won four of five starts sprinting on a firm turf course with only one second and she returns to the Jimmy Durante turf course where she scored her only victory on this layout last year at 30-1. The Mark Glatt trainee won the Irish O’ Brian Stakes down the hillside turf course on March 31 at Santa Anita by only a half-length but she overcame a less than idea race shape to win from off the pace and did so over good field. She was taken back off the pace as the three leaders established slow fractions of 21.98 and 44.15 seconds. She began to inch closer down the hill and across the dirt portion of the layout, angled four wide into the turf course, and rallied to wear down the favorite S.Y. Sky to win by a half-length. This returned to be a productive field as the runner-up returned to win Camilla Urso Stakes and Grade 2 Monrovia Stakes in her next two starts with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 111 and 110 respectively and the fifth place finisher Queen Bee To You returned to run second and win the Fran’s Valentine and Bertrando Stakes with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 107 and 112 respectively. One can draw a line through her fourth place finish in the Fran’s Valentine on May 12 because she was running at one-mile a distance that is beyond her distance limitations where she split the field running fourth. She returned to one turn in an Allowance race on June 14 and she ran second behind today’s rival KENTON ROAD but she was compromised by a lack of early speed as the eventual winner got loose on the lead where Gypsy Blu earned a career best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure a figure two points higher because she rallied against the uncontested gate to wire winner. She has come back with two works including sharp half-mile spin in 48 ⅖ on July 12 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “willing while joined home by Blue Moonrise (Baffert) in 23.2, 48.1. Is going quite well.” The lack of pace she encountered last time will not be found here as KENTON ROAD will find pressure from the speedy PAINTING CORNERS and LADY SUEBEE. Norbertto Arroyo Jr. remains in the irons and should stalk a lively pace in mid-pack and pounce over a layout she adores at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

Race 5 $20 Daily Double: (8) BLUE MOONRISE with (9) GYPSY BLU 

$25 WIN on (9) GYPSY BLU at 7-2 or better. 

Race 8: (6) OVER EMPHASIZE 

A daughter of Overanalyze comes into the San Clemente with only a maiden victory over this distance back on April 12 at Santa Anita she rallied from midpack to win by a nose. Since that victory, she has returned with pair of the in the money performances where her off the pace running style was compromised by a lack of pace or trouble at important parts of the pace and I feel this Mike McCarthy trainee needs pace and better racing luck to score the upset in this Grade 2 event. After her maiden victory, she took on winners for the first time on May 3 where her stalking style was compromised by a lack of early speed as the favored winner was able to get loose on an uncontested lead through slow fractions and she won the battle for second at the wire. She stepped up in class in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes and did not have the cleanest of trips in the stretch as the first two finishers Lady Prancelot and Hostess had clear outside rally wide trips. In that race, she saved ground passing the finish line for the first time and saved ground through the first half mile. As the pace began to quicken into and around the far turn, she continued racing on the rail and into the stretch where she attempted to get outside but was in tight Maxim Rate and the leader made the hole not there and Alonso Quinonez had to alter course to the inside in the final sixteenth of a mile and she was clear third. Both her runner-up performance in the paceless Allowance race won by Colonial Creed and her troubled third in the Honeymoon was at 1-⅛ miles and she now cuts back to one-mile the distance of her maiden victory three races back. In addition, she will find early pace for her late kick as TimeformUS anticipates the San Clemente being run at a fast pace with DEVILS DANCE, HARMLESS, and stablemate KALLINKI all vying for the early lead and Over Emphasize should drop over into mid-pack position and produce one late run as she owns the field’s best TimeformUS late pace rating. She has returned with two works including a best of eighteen half mile spin in 48 ⅖ on July 15 where National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “Q up; full of beans late rolling late in 24.3, 48.2. Set for utmost.” I expect Over Emphasize to deliver a career best performance on the cut back in distance and with plenty of speed signed on for her late kick at a price. 

Wagering Strategy: 

$25 WIN bet on (6) OVER EMPHASIZE at 5-1 or better. 

Race 10: (5) BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE)

A son of Declaration of War, BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) ships into Del Mar as part of the Ship and Win program and has hit the board only once in his last three starts but a closer inspection of each start reveals that this Irish bred gelding needs a ground saving trip and plenty of early speed to set up for his late kick and he should find that scenario in today’s finale at Del Mar. After breaking his maiden in late February at Gulfstream Park, he returned on Kentucky Derby week on May 2 at Churchill Downs and suffered a wide trip debacle in a productive race where the winner, Voting Control, won by 2-¼ widening lengths making his first start since the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. In that race, he was parked three to four wide around the first turn and continued racing that wide down the backstretch pressing a slow pace. He continued racing wide into and around the far turn and was wisely wrapped up inside the final furlong to finish ahead of one rival to be ninth beaten eight-lengths. This May 2 Allowance event produced Pillar Mountain who won his next two starts and fifth place finisher Clear for Action returned to win his next start. He was reeled back three weeks later and with a different trip he produced a career best performance to run second earning career best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure behind the perfect trip winner Get Western. Instead of being parked wide into the first turn, new jockey Adam Beschizza got BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) over to the rail into the first turn and he was able to save ground behind the long shot loose leader Discovered. He was angled off the hedge into the clear in the stretch and was second best as Get Western got first run but lost nothing in defeat finishing almost two-lengths clear of the rest of the field. In his most recent, he suffered a wide trip throughout racing three wide into and around the first turn, was parked four wide on the backstretch, and made a premature midrace move into the teeth of a fast pace coded red by TimeformUS and ran evenly through the stretch to split the twelve horse in sixth. He will now make his first start at Del Mar for trainer Steve Miyadi who does well with new acquisitions (86 TimeformUS trainer rating) and he should get the trip to deliver his best performance. TimeformUS anticipates a very fast pace with one dimensional front runners Snazzy Dresser, Factorial, and Foray all having raced or pressed red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their most recent starts. If that pace scenario happens, I expect new rider Norbertto Arroyo Jr to take BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) to the inside in the first turn, stalk in midpack a lively pace, and produce one late run at a nice price in the finale. 

Wagering Strategy: 

$25 WIN on (5) BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) at 5-1 or better.