Race 4: CAJUN TREASURE (#1, 5-2)
A son of Treasure Beach has yet to visit the winners circle in seven starts with one third-place finish but CAJUN TREASURE will be making his first start for $32,000 N2L claiming price and has shown respectable form versus tough competition in his last two starts. The Peter Eurton trainee returned from a 309-day layoff in Allowance N1X mile turf event and crossed the wire in front of only one entrant beaten seven and a quarter lengths behind next to last winner Border Town. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “had speed then stalked the pace inside, came out into the stretch, still there passing midstretch, weakened the final furlong.” This race earned excellent 92 Beyer Speed Figure and validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the third-place finisher Southern King returned to win Allowance N1X with 89 Beyer Speed Figure and the fifth-place finisher Irish Heatwave returned to win Allowance N1X with 89 Beyer Speed Figure with the winner returning to run sixth in the Grade 3 American Handicap earning 91 Beyer Speed Figure. He dropped in class against a Starter Optional Claiming price of $40,000 on June 21 and split the seven horse field crossing the wire fourth. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “settled inside 5 lengths down, inching forward up the rail in the far turn, lacking the final punch to contend.” He will now make his third race off the extended layoff and more importantly drops into $32,000 N2L claiming price for the first time. The gelding switches to jockey Umberto Rispoli for the first time and in the past year they connected to win at 40% (10/4-0-3) and from his thirteen wins this meet, he leads the jockey standings with nine victories on the turf. He should get the coveted ground saving stalk and pounce trip from his rail post position. Kris’ Wild Kat will go straight to the lead with Tromador, Georgian Road, and All American Hero forwardly placed close to the lead and I expect Umberto Rispoli to save ground in mid-pack and unleash a strong late kick with the field’s best TimeformUS late pace rating and he is realistically placed in N2L to visit the winners circle for the first time since February 28, 2019.
Wagering Strategy:
Daily Double part-wheel: #1 Cajun Treasure, #2 Honos Man with #3 Happier.
Pick 3 part-wheel: #1 Cajun Treasure, #2 Honos Man with #3 Happier with #4 Go Daddy Go.
Race 5: HAPPIER (#3, 4-1)
This is a subpar maiden field to end the early Pick 5. Outside of Last First Kiss and the morning line favorite Hamiko each horse entrant in this field has earned Beyer Speed Figures that are below par for this class level (Beyer par 77). The morning line favorite Hamiko enters this race with the field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure of 87 and co-highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure of 99. The half sister to Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up Bodemeister showed a clear affinity for the main track when second behind her favored stablemate Provocation in her second career start on June 21 where she finished eleven and a half lengths in front of the rest of the field in a race that was match race between the two Bob Baffert trainees. The negative about that race was it favored horses on or near the early lead with below average Moss Pace Figures (-14,-5) and blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. Instead I will go with the higher price of the three Bob Baffert trainees and she is making her debut. HAPPIER has always been highly regarded ever since she was the highest priced yearling by the sire Street Sense at the Keeneland September 2018 sale when the hammer dropped at $800,000. Her dam, On My Way, has produced two winners from three starters including stakes winner King Zachery who won four of ten starts on the main track routing with a career best 98 Beyer Speed Figure and her sire connects at 12% with first time starters. Trainer Bob Baffert has always been dangerous with debuting maidens sprinting on the main track but it is almost automatic when his maidens make their debut here at Del Mar. In the past three years, he has connected at 50% (23-for-46) with debuting maidens who make their debut at Del Mar sprinting on the main track. The well bred bay filly has worked in exceptional manner for her career debut making the Handicapper’s Report Fit and Ready list including a rare A- move on July 8 where she recorded six furlongs in 1:11 flat from the gate where the HR clocker stated “sensational work, tab the unraced $800K three-year-old Street Sense filly in her upcoming debut.” Leading rider Flavien Prat is in the irons and without the recency she could go overlooked with all the action surrounding Hamiko in her third career start as my BEST BET on the card.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (3) HAPPIER at 5-2 or better.
Daily Double part-wheel: #3 Happier with #4 Go Daddy Go
Race 6: GO DADDY GO (#4, 7-2)
The morning line favorite is Tiberius Mercurius who has crossed the wire first in his last two starts but was disqualified from his win on November 16 for bothering a rival towards the wire and was placed second. He returned from a 216-day layoff on June 19 and officially broke his maiden by a head but did so in a visually unimpressive manner versus a field filled with trial maidens. In that race, he sat second long shot loose leader Fire Polish for the first half mile, bid outside that rival at the top of the stretch, and finally got by that rival at mid-stretch and barely held off War Path to win by a head. The race has produced five starters to run back and it has produced three second-place finishes, one third, and one off the board finish in this subpar maiden field. He steps up to face winners and will have to prove he can move forward in his second start off the layoff. GO DADDY GO will make his third start following a 91-day layoff and each start is better than the previous start. He made his first start off the layoff on May 24 and finished fifth beaten only length and three-quarter lengths in a race that is much better than what his past performances would indicate as he received a less than stellar ride from Umberto Rispoli. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “he settled midpack early then tracked the pace two-deep, moved up prematurely to force the pace three-deep, then took back again to stalk leaving the backstretch, two-deep around the far turn, came out a bit into the stretch, no rally.” Although the first six place finishers are separated by length and a half, this race produced two next out winners with the winner Red King returned to win the Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano earning 92 Beyer Speed Figure (nine point improvement) and the last place finisher Posterize cut back to a sprint and switched to dirt to win open $32,000 claiming event with 85 Beyer Speed Figure. In his last start, the son of Scat Daddy rallied to be third as the first two finishers ran third and second after the first half mile with Lincoln City returned to win Allowance N1X with 87 Beyer Speed Figure. He comes into this race with three works including a nice half mile spin in 47 ⅘ on July 12 that the Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B stating “pulling well clear in 47.3, lightly asked, a nice work.” The Brian Koriner trainee should get a good ground saving stalk and pounce trip with the sprinter Silenced stretching out to a route dictating the early lead and this cheasnut colt should get stalk and pounce trip from post position four. He earned the highest last race Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure of 85 and 110 respectively and should be set for a winning performance in his third race into his form cycle.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (4) GO DADDY GO at 5-2 or better.
No other plays.
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