Race 3: WHIRL CANDY (#4, 5-1)
The morning line favorite, Seiche, exits a third place finish on August 15 and now stretches out in his second career start. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the son of Super Saver “trailed badly, moved closer around the far turn, tried to come through inside the leader, but did not have clear sailing past midstretch allowing the winner first run, one-paced when clear, missed the place.” The even running style suggests he should relish the two turns but his subsequent training after that respectable effort and his trainer’s surprisingly lack of success with second start maiden stretching out for the first time leaves Seiche vulnerable as the favorite. He worked a half mile on August 30 in 49.3 that Handicapper’s Report clocker reported “did not look as good as usual in this five furlong work, wearing blinkers, going off from the 1/2 mile pole, opening 1/4 in 24.4, raising his head crossing the wire while being coaxed along in 49.1, still being coaxed down to the 7/8 pole in 102.0, so-so work, a bit disappointing this week,” for C+ move. Secondly, trainer Bob Baffert is only 8% (3-for-39) the past five years with his trainees making their second start stretching out to a route on the main track for the first time. I am looking elsewhere and in this race a horse that made my horses to watch list on July 26 for his game third-place finish over this same layout. WHIRL CANDY had finished off the board in his first three starts before trainer Richard Baltas decided to geld him, took the blinkers off and try routing on the main track for the first time in his fourth career start and he ran his best race finishing third earning the co highest last race 77 Beyer Speed Figure where he earned this figure under very difficult circumstances. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “raced to the front, left the rail open into the first turn, settled on the leader’s flank, pressed the tempo to the far turn, took command, dueled into the lane, led to deep stretch, tagged for second.” This was a very fast early pace earning kamikaze Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+21,+10) and earning corresponding red coded TimeformUS pace figures. The pace was so fast it saw the leader, Winner’s Club, tire to finish eighth beaten 19-½ lengths as this son of Twirling Candy won the battle for the early lead but lost the war. He has returned with four workouts including best of 28 five furlong move on August 28 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a respectable B- stating “asked for a good work, opening ⅜ in 35.2, asked through the stretch, up in 59.4, a decent work, but let run.” The speed of this field and retaining the services of Flavien Prat this dark bay or brown gelding will flash his speed to the first turn and with an easier pace scenario can race gate to wire as one of two recommended singles on your multi-race wagers on Saturday Del Mar card.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (4) WHIRL POWER at 7-2 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #2 Charlito, #8 A.P. Pharoah. Small reverse for each.
Race 8: LIBERAL (#4, 12-1)
The morning line favorite Whopping Jay will make his third start this meet and exits a win versus California-bred Allowance on August 14 but his status as the favorite is really based on his second place finish in the California Dreamin Stakes where he finished second beaten only a half length behind the favored perfect trip and five time winner Galilean. That California bred stakes event was not the most productive. Out of the also ran, Take the One O One, who returned to the main track to win Allowance N2X with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure, six horses returned from that race producing one winner, one second place finish, and four horses finishing off the board including the Galiean who finished fifth in the Del Mar Mile on August 23 duplicating his 90 Beyer Speed Figure. His win on August 14 was against a weak field of California-breds Allowance N1X. The third place finisher Jetovator is a five time loser at that class level and the field was bunched at the wire with the first five finishers seperated by only 2-¼ lengths at the wire. Instead I am going to prefer a horse taking a step up in class but faced a key race field in his last race. LIBERAL has only a N2L win on the turf on May 16 at Santa Anita but that race was an indication that this Irish bred was rounding into form. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “settled at the back of the pack, traveled willingly along the inside down the backstretch, rallied under cover into contention in the far turn, split runners into the lane, bid between runners midstretch, rallied to the lead, powered through the wire.” The field was well strung out behind him a sign of a quality victory and the runner up returned to win earning a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. He returned from a 83 day layoff on August 7 and ran into a productive field finishing second behind the runaway winner Scarto. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “had only his stablemate beat inside, picked off horses along the rail around the far turn, came out leaving that bend, no threat to the winner, up for the place. He was helped by the raceshape.” The raceshape did aid his rally as the fractions were fast enough to earn a red coded TimeformUS pace figure and the form of this has already been flattered. The winner returned to win Allowance N1X on August 31 with a 87 Beyer Speed Figure, third place finisher returned to run second on the main track in a Starter Allowance earning 81 Beyer Speed Figure, and the fifth place finisher returned to run second earning a 77 Beyer Speed Figure in Allowance N1X on the turf at Golden Gate. The Patrick Gallagher trainee has returned with an easy maintenance half mile work in 49.2 on August 29 and retains the services of jockey Drayden Van Dyke for the third straight time. He will make his first start at this 1-⅛ miles but with his excellent post position (four), he should save ground leaving the chute and around both turns and with any clear sailing at the top of the stretch flash that potent late kick at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (4) LIBERAL at 8-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #3 Dubby Dubbie, #5 Rocky Tough. Small reverse for each.
Race 9: TOBACCO ROAD (#7, 6-1)
The bet against in this race goes towards the second choice on the morning line Camby who makes his second start at this N3L class level after finishing third as the 5-2 second choice on August 9 here at Del Mar. Given the trip he encountered with moderate early pace to chase or pressed, this son of Candy Ride no excuse. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “raced midfield to the far turn, bore down on the lead four-deep to the quarter-pole, briefly poked his nose in front, raced five-wide into the lane, bid to deep stretch, best of the rest.” The part about that note was that he failed to kick on from mid-stretch to the wire as he hung badly losing second to Self Taught who was a 1-½ length off the lead at the eighth pole and Camby failed to finish the job to win or finish second. The horse who exits the fastest races and is nice price on the morning line goes to the closer TOBACCO ROAD who will need the right trip and pace scenario for him to get over bridesmaid status of six combined seconds or thirds from 22 starts but he finds the right field this afternoon to get him over his tendency to finish second or third. He made his first start at Del Mar on opening day at this N3L class level where he caught the razor sharp front runner Julius in a highly rated event for the class level (86 Beyer Speed Figure). According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “had one beat cantering on his own 11 lengths down, beginning his long march forward through foes with an inside path in the turn, sustaining his long effort to snatch 2nd late.” The early pace that Julius set as the uncontested leader was moderate according to the Moss Pace Figures (+2,+4) and the validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to win a Starter Allowance on August 2 with 86 Beyer Speed Figure and then ran second in Allowance N1X with an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. This runner up effort gave his connections confidence to enter him in a Starter Allowance on August 15 and he ran into another highly rated event (86 Beyer Speed Figure) won the “Ship and Win” favored winner Pyron. In that race, he “lagged at the rear two-deep, passed the back markers outside around the far turn, four-wide for the drive, late gain, won the battle for the show.” He now drops back to N3L and returns with a half-mile maintenance work on August 27. He should get pace for his late run with morning line favorite Street Image going for the early lead stretching out a furlong from his last two starts and will get pressure from Octopus drawn outside of him. If that pace scenario materializes then I expect jockey Ricky Gonzalez to allow Tobacco Road to settle early and will grind away through the stretch to pick up the tiring leaders in the final furlong.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (7) TOBACCO ROAD at 3-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #7 with #4 Street Image, #11 Red Valor. Small reverse for each.
Race 10: RAYMUNDOS SECRET (#8, 2-1)
With four victories on the turf, two off the board finishes, and making his second start off 293 day layoff and for trainer Phil D’Amato I see RAYMUNDOS SECRET only improving in her second race this year as the morning line favorite. The daughter of Treasure Beach two off the board finishes including in last year’s Del Mar Oaks was the result of this filly going too fast too soon. In her last start of 2019, Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes, the bay filly got caught in a vicious speed duel with 29-1 longshot Giza Goddness as those two opened up a 2 and 1-½ length lead on the rest of the field through fast fractions of 45.01 and 1:08.44 for the first six furlongs that were fast enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She remained in the battle with that rival all the way to mid stretch before finally giving way to finish fifth in a very good effort considering the fast pace set it up for the horses coming from off the pace as the first, third, and fourth place finishers rallied from sixth, seventh, and ninth after the first half mile as Giza Goddness and Raymundos Secret ran the two best races in that that race. She returned from a 293 day layoff in her first start for trainer Phil D’Amato in a Allowance N2X on August 14 and she made her four year old debut a winning one but her neck margin of victory is deceiving as was really only asked to run the last eighth of a mile. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “eased her way back to sit in the leader’s draft, looking primed in the turn, waiting for room in upper stretch, bulling her way out midstretch, kicking strongly to get up in the final stride.” The two parts of this victory that was impressive was she completed her final quarter of a mile in co fastest 23.34 seconds and did so against the race shape as the second and third place finishers ran first and second throughout and second part was she galloped out strongly after the wire towards the backstretch as this was a perfect prep for the stretch out to 1-⅛ of the Mabee. She is the leader in TimeformUS early pace ratings and should navigate the lead into the first lead with Flavien Prat remaining in the irons as the Southern California filly and mare turf division has taken turns in defeating each other this year. She comes into the race with impressive five furlong move on the turf course on August 30 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave her a B stating “five furlongs over the sod with the dogs up, we had the final 1/2 of this work in 48.3, never asked at all, striding out well to the wire, a good work for the recent winner, who will likely surface in the Mabee closing weekend.” In the past five years on the turf course here at Del Mar in Graded Stakes, trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Flavien Prat have connected at gaudy 38% (13/5-2-0) and they look to continue that successful trend with Raymundos Secret as my second single on the Saturday Del Mar card.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (8) RAYMUNDOS SECRET at 8-5 or better.
Trifecta part-wheel: 8 with 2 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 = $15 for a $3 Wager
Trifecta part-wheel: 8 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 with 2 = $5 for a $1 Wager.
Race 11: TIZAMAGICIAN (#1, 8-1)
The morning line favorite Nolo Contesto has developed a bad case of finishing second. Since defeating the now retired and last year’s morning line favorite for the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, Omaha Beach, the son of Pioneer of the Nile has finished second in three subsequent fast main track events including his last two starts. In his last start on August 1 I could not find an excuse for his third second place finish behind his stablemate Shortlist. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran inside 4 lengths down, inching forward midrace, pushing forward 3-wide in the final turn, stalling out on the fading leader in the upper stretch, chasing on after the winner in the lane to earn a clear 2nd.” He ran third chasing the very fast pace speed duel between Rayray and Dreams of Valor who set fast fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures (+15,+5). Instead I prefer a horse that finished behind him in that same race that I expect to make the early lead in this race. TIZAMAGICIAN is a horse that has always promised more than he has delivered in his ten starts. The son of Tiznow has disappointed as the post time favorite in four occasions but I could find excuses for his two debacles on a fast main track where he will be overlooked in the finale. He returned from a 111 day layoff on May 22 at Santa Anita where he was bet down to the 7-5 post time favorite and from a trip standpoint one cannot find a real excuse. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “pushed the pace onto the backstretch, applied heavy pressure down the backstretch, could not go with the winner heading into the far turn, stayed on to midstretch, one-paced to the wire.” The excuses I found in this race are firstly the layoff and secondly the fast pace he pressed chasing or pressing the gate to wire winner Take the One O One as it earned above average Moss Pace Figures (+8,+3). I will a draw a line through his race in the Oceanside Stakes because it was the wrong surface and class level and he returned to the main track at this N1X class level and finished fifth beaten four lengths behind the rail skimming rally winner Shortlist but he had a tough trip that is not described in the Bid 4 wide, weakened comment in your past performances. According to Trip Notes Pro, he “Floated out on the 1st turn by #2, Nolo Contesto. Reach normally wouldn’t have been a big deal except it took him into the 6path and (3) rivals advanced up inside of him. Caught 4W (6deep) entire 1st turn and down the BS. Tugged along to advance 4W into the FT and almost made it to the lead. Began flattening out in the lane and had every excuse to stop running but give him extra credit for continuing to try to the wire. SNEAKY good gallop out.” He has come back with three workouts including a sharp three 59.3 five furlong move on August 26 followed by a maintenance three furlong blow out four days ago. He is drawn on the rail and gets Drayden Van Dyke in the irons for the first time and I expect him to be sent for the early lead as he and Mongolian Legend are the only entrants in this field with triple digit TimeformUS early pace ratings in this field. With aggressive tactics from the start, Tizamagician stands an excellent chance to spring the upset in the finale.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (1) TIZAMAGICIAN at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #3 Strongconstitution, #5 Ronamo, #6 Royal Act. Small reverse.
Del Mar Race 8 Pick 4
Race 8: (3) Dubby Dubbie, (4) Liberal, (5) Rocky Tough
Race 9: (4) Street Image, (7) TOBACCO ROAD, (11) Red Valor
Race 10: (8) RAYMUNDOS SECRET
Race 11: (1) Tizamagician, (3) Strongconstitution, (5) Ronamo, (6) Royal Act
Main Ticket: 3,4,5 with 7 with 8 with 1,3,5,6 = 3 x 1 x 1 x 4 x $2 = $24
Ticket 1: 3,4,5 with 4,11 with 8 with 1,3,5,6 = 3 x 2 x 1 x 4 x $1 = $24
Total Wager: $48
No comments:
Post a Comment