Golden Doughnut Looks for Better Timed Ride in Finale

 Race 4: MONGOLIAN WINDOW (#4, 5-1)

The morning line favorite Perfect Ice Storm will get attention as the favorite with his percentage trainer-jockey combination of Peter Eurton and Umberto Rispoli who have connected at 56% rate (5-for-9) in the past year at Del Mar but based on handicapping the horse this daughter of He Be Fire and Ice is vulnerable. From five starts on a fast main track, he is winless in five starts on that surface with his lone in the money effort a third beaten fourteen and a half lengths in his previous start at Los Alamitos. This stalker from midpack also finds a field not loaded with plethora of early speed as TimeformUS pace projector sees this one-mile event favoring horses on or near the early lead and that scenario will favor MONGOLIAN WINDOW who defeated Perfect Ice Storm in their only encounter on July 2 where she encountered conditions similar to today’s event. In that aforementioned event, granddaughter of Distorted Humor enjoyed an ideal trip chasing the uncontested leader Tiz Toffee through slow early fractions for the first half mile according to Moss Pace Figures (-5,-6). She inherited the lead midway on the far turn and was challenged by the closer Meso at the top of the stretch and she simply refused to let that rival by earning a competitive 70 Beyer and 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Enebish Ganbat trainee was reeled back in twenty-five days and stepped up to Allowance N1X for optional claiming price of $40,000 and found the class level and the fast early pace too tiring to finish fourth beaten sixteen and half lengths. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “contested the pace between runners into the first turn, settled just off the pacesetter onto the backstretch, traveled between runners to the far turn, unresponsive to urging in the far turn, grinded home.” The early pace for the first half mile was fast earning above par Moss Pace Figures (+21,+6) explaining the fourth place finish. She has come back with a maintenance three furlong move on August 9 that Handicapper’s Report clocker described as a “leg stretcher.” In a race with only one other confirmed pace rival, Destiny’s Journey, Mongolian Window should go straight for the early lead under Ruben Fuentas and prove a tough rival to run down on the drop in class and easier pace scenario to work with. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (4) MONGOLIAN WINDOW at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta: 4 with #5 Operatic. Small reverse for each. 

Race 8: MANRESA (#7, 8-1)

The morning line First Empress defeated five of her rivals when second on July 26 behind the gate to wire winner Destiny’s Journey. The daughter of Cairo Prince enjoyed ideal conditions in that race as she was forwardly placed close to moderate early pace according to Moss Pace Figures for the first six furlongs (-2,0) and raced the majority off the rail on a main track that had a strong bad rail bias. She will not find the same trip in this event as Billy K, Samandah and Miss Bennet will be forwardly placed on or near the front end and if the pace takes it toll it could unfold for the long shot MANRESA who finished six and quarter lengths behind First Empress last time out but did not have the best trips as she was hampered by the bad rail bias. She broke her maiden on June 13 with perfect trip chasing the loose leader La Sabalera early, took over the lead midway on the far turn to open up three length lead at midstretch, and won by six and a half lengths defeating a subpar field as the four horses behind her came back to finish off the board in their next start. The daughter of Coil faced restricted claiming company for the first time on July 26 and ran a sneaky good race that the angled in second, best of rest comment in your past performances would indicate. She “raced at the tail of the field, began to wind up approaching the half-mile pole, launched three-wide into the far turn, dove to the rail approaching the quarter-pole, rallied into third, labored on the tiring rail inside of the eighth-pole.” Not only did she raced on the turn and through the stretch on a bad rail she attempted to make her rally from off the pace but also a speed bias. She will make her first start off the claim for Gary Stute who connects at 21% (4-for-19) in the past five years with that move on the main track. Jockey Eswan Flores takes over in the irons for the first time and should find an honest pace for her late kick. On a week where Mel Stute passed away at the age of 93, it would be fitting for his son Gary to win his first start after his father’s passing at what should be a juicy price given the margin of defeat in his last start and low speed figures. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (7) MANRESA at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exactas: #7 with #3 Midnight Garden, #8 Awesome Amanda. Small reverse for each. 

Daily Double part-wheel: (7) MANRESA with (8) GOLDEN DOUGHNUT

Race 9: GOLDEN DOUGHNUT (#8, 6-1)

The morning line favorite Whopping Jay was second beaten only half length in the Cal Dreaming Stakes versus California bred company nineteen days ago. The son of Square Eddie encountered an ideal pace scenario to flatter his late running style as Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “raced three-wide at the back of the pack, traveled keenly onto the backstretch, settled down approaching the half-mile pole, responded well to urging in the far turn, rallied six-wide into the lane, laid in, charged down the center of the track, ran at the leader late, rebuffed on his wrong lead.” The fast pace noted by TimeformUS red coded pace figure, saw the first four finishers rally from fourth, eighth, seventh, and tenth in a complete pace collapsed. Instead I am going to select a horse I made a top choice on July 12 that was compromised by an ill timed ride in that race. GOLDEN DOUGHNUT will make his third start following the 994-day layoff and each race off the layoff is better than the one before. He returned from almost a three-year layoff on June 20 where he was dismissed as the longest shot on the tote board at 53-1 and he outran those odds to finish third. He traveled in a comfortable spot on the rail in mid-field behind a very fast early (red coded pace figures) pressed by the winner Shadow Spinx, moved into contention on the far turn, tipped out to have dead aim at the winner at the top of the stretch, stayed on through the stretch while no match for the winner, and lost second Boogalute who rallied from sixth. I thought he could move forward on July 12 in his second start off the long layoff where he was 15-1 on the morning line and was bet down to 9-2 and received a poor ride from Humberto Figueroa where if he waited longer he would have won. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “bumped by JETOVATOR at the start, tracked inside, moved prematurely along the rail leaving the backstretch to vie for command then took over into the far turn, inched away leaving that bend and into the lane, collared deep stretch, hung tough, outfinished late. If Figueroa just waited, he likely wins.” The pace he chased and made that premature move was very fast earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures in a race that collapsed for the off the pace runners with the first three finishers rallied from eleventh, seventh, and ninth after the first half mile as he earned a TimeformUS Speed Figure higher than the winner Ostini because he was close to that fast pace. This stalker will just need a better timed ride from jockey Mike Smith as he looks primed for a winning performance in his third race off the layoff and I expect him to make amends as he is in good form. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (8) GOLDEN DOUGHNUT at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exactas: #8 with #4 Sea of Liberty, #7 Jetovator. Small reverse for each. 

P R Radio Star Looks to Ship and Win

Race 8: GOING TO VEGAS (#8, 12-1)

This three-year old filly by Goldencents could prove a timely claim by trainer Richard Baltas. The bay filly has won three of her last four starts at one-mile on the turf and her lone debacle in that series happen on March 22 when she broke from outermost post eleven in an eleven horse field and was parked four wide into and around the first turn, ducked into the two path down the backstretch before finding the rail on the far turn and had no late kick crossing the wire seventh at similar class level as today’s event. She dropped in for a claiming price of $50,000 in her first start off an eighty-two day layoff and took full advantage of a perfect Flavien Prat ride and very fast pace to score as the 4-5 post time favorite. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “raced midpack two-deep by the stands and around the first turn, dropped further off the pace onto the backstretch, gained around the far turn, full of run three-deep into the lane, ran by her rivals with one big swoop to take over passing midstretch, opened up the final furlong.” Her closing kick was flattered by a very fast pace speed duel between Savvy Gal and Lovely Lila as those two dueled through the first half mile that was fast enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She was claimed by today’s trainer Richard Baltas and in the past five-years at Del Mar horses making their first start off the claim in a turf route here at Del Mar has been a profitable move. He has won at 29% clip (14/4-0-4) including his most recent acquisition Super Patriot (August 17, 2019, $9.00-1) who he claimed from a $32,000 N1Y on June 8, 2019 and returned off a seventy-day layoff to win her first start off the claim. Although she rallied from sixth in a eight-horse field in her most recent start, she has shown the ability to lay close to the early lead by her two prior wins before her last and with My Little Runaway the field’s confirmed pacesetter, jockey Jose Validivia Jr can place Going to Vegas close to the early lead at what should be a moderate early pace and get the first jump on her former stablemate California Kook and morning line favorite Red Lark. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (8) GOING TO VEGAS at 8-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #3 and #4. Small Reverse. 

Race 9: P R RADIO STAR (#4, 12-1) 

The horse to beat and to catch is the morning line favorite I Am the Danger but he is coming off a 525-day layoff and I prefer a horse with recency and this Warrior’s Reward gelding fits the profile. He is a win machine (8-for-28) who has visited the winner’s circle in three of six starts this year and loves today’s distance of six furlongs with a 7-for-20 record at this trip and is 1-for-8 at other distances. Prior to his last start, the bay gelding scored his eighth victory with a perfect trip four-length victory over $16,000 claiming company that proved to be a “key” race. In that race, he sat three-wide chasing a moderate pace set by the longshot leader Saturday Tryst early, made a three-wide move on the far turn to kick past Saturday Tryst and assumed command at mid-stretch, and won going away by four widening lengths. The 82 Beyer Speed Figure he earned was validated when the fourth-place finisher returned to win at the same level earning an improved 93 Beyer Speed Figure (22 point improvement) and ninth-place finisher returned in a restricted claiming event at Evagaline Downs and won turf sprint earning 81 Beyer Speed Figure (25 point improvement). He doubled jumped in class to $25,000 in his last start where his stalking style was hurt by a moderate early pace set by the gate to wire winner Hard Belle. In that race, he had perfect trip saving ground stalking the pacesetter on the rail and on the far turn, tipped out at mid-stretch and closed well to finish two and three-quarter lengths in front of Boyfriend Material who earned a improved 83 Beyer Speed Figure (9 point improvement). He will make his first start for Phil D’Amato and is eligible for Del Mar’s Ship and Win program. In the past five-years, his trainer has won at 38% clip (8/3-1-1) with dirt sprinters making their first start off the claim and two of them Easter Fever (December 1, 2016, $0.50-1) and W. Giles (July 31, 2015, $3.30-1) won here at Del Mar and this owner-trainer tandem just missed on Friday when Ronamo ran second beaten three-quarters of a length shipping in from Churchill Downs in his first start for this team. Flavien Prat takes over in the irons and if his half-mile spin in 47.1 is any indication on how well P R Radio Star is doing for his new connections then I expect another move forward to spring the upset.  

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (4) P R RADIO STAR at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #6. Small Reverse. 

Race 10: GOLDEN DOUGHNUT (#6, 15-1)

The six-year old Golden Balls gelding was attempting the impossible on June 20 at Santa Anita. He was returning from a 994-day layoff in a one-mile turf event and was making his first start as a new gelding. It would have been acceptable if he ran around the racetrack and needed this race but the opposite happened as this James Cassidy trainee put in a very good effort in defeat to finish third in the nine-horse field and any improvement from that effort makes this chestnut eligible to spring the upset in the finale. Prior to that effort, he ran respectable with excuses in his first two starts for this barn. In his first race for James Cassidy he managed to split ten horse field after he had trailed fast pace, launched his rally from last on the far turn and into the stretch before steadying off horses heels in deep stretch costing him a better placing as he was actually running well until the incident happened. In his next start, he settled off the pace along the rail in mid-pack and then was prematurely moved to grab the lead on the far turn through a second quarter in 23.89 and third quarter in 22.93 which explains why he tired badly in the stretch but managed to split a twelve horse field in sixth. He was dismissed as the longest shot on the tote board at 53-1 in his last start and he outran those odds to finish third. He traveled in a comfortable spot on the rail in mid-field behind a very fast early (red coded pace figures) pressed by the winner Shadow Spinx, moved into contention on the far turn, tipped out to have dead aim at the winner at the top of the stretch, stayed on through the stretch while no match for the winner, and lost second Boogalute who rallied from sixth. He earned a respectable 83 and 107 Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure respectively and should move up with that race under his belt. He is reeled back in 22-days and drops into his restricted California-bred company for the first time and Humberto Figueroa who rode him last time returns in the irons. He is not the most probable winner but based on his efforts vs. open company and his return race off the long layoff, Golden Doughnut has every right to compete at this class level as there are no standouts in the Del Mar finale. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (6) GOLDEN DOUGNUT at 8-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #11 and #13. Small Reverse.