Race 7: Claiming $32,000 to $28,000, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and up
TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at a fast early pace but I do not see it the same. From the outside post position, jockey R. Almanza will send Alex Rossi straight to the front and will be chased by Midnight Destiny and Indygo Bo into the first turn. Morning line favorite Dream Team will settle into good position on the rail close to a moderate early pace down the backstretch. The closers that hope a fast pace materializes are It Behooves Me, L’s Choice, and Fly Lexis Fly.
Not only does the morning line favorite drop from Allowance N2X into this open $32,000 claiming event, but also Alex Rossi (#9) makes the same move for trainer Doug O’Neil. In the past five years, this barn has won at a gaudy 36% (11-4-1-2) dropping horses from an Allowance into a Claiming race in a dirt route and Alex Rossi hopes to continue in that successful trend. The Freud showed he can at least handle this one-mile distance back on November 1 over this same Del Mar main track when he ran an excellent third to the post time favorite Iron Fist. In that race he was sent for the early lead and establish a pressured early pace with the favored winner as those two opened up a length and a half and two length lead on the rest of the field through fast fractions for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+5, +6). He battled all the way with the favored winner to mid-stretch and lost second to the opportunistic stalker Just Kidding who rallied from third. He earned a respectable 87 Beyer Speed Figure that equals the par for this $32,000 claiming event. He was a vet scratch from his next start on November 28 and was not seen the remainder of 2015. The five-year old returned from two hundred and twenty-three day layoff on June 11 in Allowance N2X sprint at six furlongs and he ran like a horse that needed a race. He displayed early speed but was quickly out sprinted by the quick Guy Code who set moderate fractions per Moss Pace Figures over a glib surface (+3, +2). He dropped back into the far turn and when it was obvious he was not going to threaten with an in the money finish was wisely eased to the wire to lose by eleven lengths finishing last. He has bounced out of that comeback effort with three workouts at Los Alamitos including a B- move on July 6 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant stated “Steady all the way never under any pressure coming the last half in 49.1, reached the wire in 114. Fits on the drop.” He will go for the early lead in a race where his two main pace rivals, Midnight Destiny and Indygo Bo, are not as fast early as him and the drop is a realistic move for a barn that excels at it.
In my exotics, I will also use the other Doug O’Neil trainee Fly Lexis Fly (#8) who returns at the same class level as his runner-up performance on June 11 behind the Bob Baffert favored class dropper Midnight Hawk. In that race he was out-sprinted for the early lead and settled in last behind a very slow pace prompted by the favored winner per the Moss Pace Figures (-14, -6). He came under a drive parked four wide into the far turn and chased the winner to the wire earning a 87 Beyer Speed Figure that is on par for this class level. If a fast pace materializes as TimeformUS pace projector sees than Badge of Silver gelding has an excellent chance to visit the Winner’s Circle for the third time in eight starts this year. Dream Team (#5) makes a suspicious drop from a respectable third in a Allowance N2X into this $32,000 claiming event. This full brother to Graded Stakes winner Cupid ran a respectable third at this distance versus Allowance N2X rivals on June 10 chasing a very slow early pace per Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (-7, -3) and chased the first two finishers to the wire who ran 2nd and 1st at each call. He is primed for a winning performance with a pair of B works per National Turf’s Andy Harrington here at Del Mar and Bob Baffert does drop to win race as he wins at 26% with his starters dropping from Allowance to Claiming event in the past five years per DRF Formulator.
The Play: My preference in this race goes to Alex Rossi who will most likely go to the front and force the rest of his rivals to chase him to the wire. For the purposes of betting this race I will focus on wagers on him winning this event and looking at the win and exacta pools to maximize my investment. In addition due to my single in Race 9 and a Pick 6 carryover that will have more than $1 Million in the pool I will be playing the Pick 4 for the first time this Del Mar.
WIN bet on (9) ALEX ROSSI at 7-2 or better.
Main Exactas: 9-5, 9-8. Small reverse for each.
Pick 4
$3.50: 5, 8, 9 / 5, 7 / 3 / 6 = $21
$2: 5, 8, 9 / 2 / 3 / 6 = $6
$2: 5, 8, 9 / 5, 7 / 1 / 6 = $12
$2: 5, 8, 9 / 5, 7 / 3 / 4, 8, 10 = $36
$1: 5, 8, 9 / 2 / 1 / 6 = $3
$1: 5, 8, 9 / 2 / 3 / 4, 8, 10 = $9
$1: 5, 8, 9 / 5, 7 / 1 / 4, 8, 10 = $18
Total Cost: $105
Race 8: California Dreamin Stakes, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three and up
TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early pace that does not favor horses on or near the lead or coming from off the pace. From the outside position Avanti Bello will go straight to the early lead but will be tracked or pressed by Magic Mark who will be making his second start following a lengthy layoff. In behind this first flight will be Ambitious Brew, Boozer, and Soi Phet. In midpack Alert Bay and Poshky will be heard making their moves leaving the backstretch while closers such as Somethings Unusual and Patriots Rule hope for a pace meltdown and clear trip to setup their late charge.
In the past two years, Poshky (#7) has visited the Del Mar Winner’s Circle. He won an Allowance N1X in 2014 and last year won an Allowance N2X over subsequent Gr. 1 Hollywood Derby winner Chiropractor during the Bing Crosby season last November. The six-year old gelding off a last to first victory in the Crystal Water Handicap on June 11 at Santa Anita at 21-1 but those odds seem strange when you consider he ran a superb fourth in the Gr. 3 Thunder Road Stakes on April 9 at the same one-mile distance. In that fourth place finish, the Peter Miller trainee was inside of a three-horse speed duel into the first turn, he was taken back off this fast pace speed duel to stalk in fourth early. He started to shuffle back as the field became bunched midway on the far turn but re-rallied along the inside into the stretch and ran evenly to finish fourth in a race dominated by closers as the first three finishers in the Thunder Road rallied from 6th, 9th, and 7th after the first half mile and the three leaders after a half mile finished 8th, 9th, and 11th as Poshky was the only horse close to that very fast pace to hold on well at the finish. Moreover the Thunder Road became productive event with Si Sage and Finnegans Wake returning two starts later to win Gr. 2 Whittingham and Allowance race respectively. He wanted no part of the main track when he finished fourth in the Bertrando Stakes on April 16 and found himself covering a lot of ground behind a glacial early pace in the Gr. 3 All American on May 30 at Golden Gate. He returned to the turf at one-mile and sprung the 21-1 upset over Alert Bay in the Crystal Water Handicap. He settled in last early as the runaway pacesetter, Spirit Rules, set an enervating early pace through the first half mile in 46.16 seconds. He launched his bid from the rear of the field while five wide into the stretch and won the prolonged stretch duel with Alert Bay to win by a half-length earning a career best 105 Beyer Speed Figure. The form of that race received a huge upgrade when third-place finisher, Ashleyluvsugar returned to finish second beaten a half-length in the Gr. 2 Eddie Read Handicap earning a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. Despite charging from last, this gelding does not need to be far back evident by his fourth-place finish in the Gr. 3 Thunder Road on April 9 at Santa Anita. He will most likely sit in mid-pack behind a moderate pace set by Avanti Bello and come charging from off the pace over his favorite turf course.
In my exotics I will also use Alert Bay (#5) who ran a game second to our top choice and one can argue he ran the best race. The City Zip gelding and multiple Graded Stakes winner on the turf had to do the dirty work in the Crystal Water chasing the longshot pacesetter Spirit Rules through a very quick early pace, made his move as the leader weaken to finish last, made the lead, and refused to yield easily as Poshky rallied from last to win by a half-length. His only race over the Jimmy Durante turf course was to subsequent Gr. 1 Shoemaker Mile and Gr. 2 Eddie Read winner Midnight Storm. Ambitious Brew (#2) will be my lone backup in this race and should not be dismissed. He was ambitiously placed in the Gr. 1 Triple Bend on June 25 at Santa Anita and ran well pressing the pace while widest of all early and stayed on gamely to mid-stretch when he was out kicked in the final furlong finishing sixth. He returns to his preferred surface on turf and has trained with plenty of vigor entering this race with a B+ move on July 17 at Los Alamitos per National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant. I expect a ground saving stalk and pounce trip under Flavien Prat.
The Play: I believe this race will be won by the horses coming out of the Crystal Water Handicap and suggested wagers plus my Pick 4 plays will reflect that.
WIN bet on (7) POSHSKY at 7-2 or better.
Main Exacta Box: 7-5.
Small Exactas: 7-2, 5-2. No reverse.
Race 10: Claiming $40,000 to $35,000, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and up
TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early pace that does not favor horses on the early lead or coming from off the pace. Macro Access will go straight to the front but will be pressed or hounded by Image of Joplin. Street Moxie, Tribal Tribute, and Back to Backo will get a position in first flight behind the early pace. In mid-pack I expect Professor Berns, Zinvoir, and Reflected Star to get the first jump on the closers. If a fast pace does materialize look for closers such as Yes Yes Yes, Lucky J Lane, Opsec, and Unusual Taste to be charging late.
There are not many times when I say I love the chances of a horse with the top last race Beyer Speed Figure but in this case I do. Zinvor (#6) is my longshot single to close out my Pick 4 on today’s Del Mar card and after reviewing his three turf routes in 2016 he looks to be a clear standout in the finale. He made his first start off a two hundred and eighty-seven day layoff on April 2 at Santa Anita and ran much better than his sixth-place finish or his 4-¼ length margin of defeat would indicate. He was forced to break from post position ten in an eleven horse field and was wide without any cover pass the stands for the first time and was forced even wide into the first turn when a rival floated him out. As the field reached the backstretch he continuing running wide chasing a quick early pace set by St. Joe Bay who set a half mile in 45.46 seconds. Jockey Victor Espinoza urged his mount forward while wide around the far turn and remained in the hunt to the top of the stretch before giving way to split the field. He covered sixty-three more feet than the winner according to Trakus and when you add the fast early pace he chased plus the long layoff this Tribal Rule gelding ran sneaky well in defeat. He shipped to Golden Gate and was reeled back in only fifteen days where he had the misfortune of trying to chase the speedy gate to wire winner Hidden Zensation who was allowed to dictated an uncontested early lead over a turf course where he is 4-3-1-0. The Adam Kitchingham trainee shorten up down the hill on May 19 and took advantage of a pace meltdown as he rallied from fifth to take over the lead at mid-stretch, and was caught by the closer Ebadan at the wire. In his last race, Crystal Water Handicap, he chased the longshot leader Spirit Rules from the rail into the first turn, dropped back to race second to last as the leader quicken the pace, continued to race towards the rear leaving the backstretch, moved up between rivals on the far turn, angled out, and raced with the leaders all the way mid-stretch and was out finished to the wire beaten 3-¼ lengths earning the field’s top last race 99 Beyer Speed Figure. The form of that race received a huge upgrade when third-place finisher, Ashleyluvsugar returned to finish second beaten a half-length in the Gr. 2 Eddie Read Handicap earning a 102 Beyer Speed Figure and the first two finishers are contenders in the California Dreamin Stakes. He has bounced back with three works including a B- move on July 16 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Moving smoothly enough for Kitchingman in 48.4. Seems fine in this 1/2 mile move.” Santiago Gonzalez remains in the irons and look for closing kick from mid-pack.
In exotics I will use Lucky Jane Lane (#4) who rallied from last behind an uncontested gate to wire winner in Batti Man on May 20 and did well to finish third beaten less than two-lengths. He will make his first start off the claim for Ron Ellis who wins at 22% (9-2-1-2) with his starters making their first start off the claim in a turf route. He enters this race with back to back B workouts per National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a sharp July 18 move that Andy caught him “Leveled out nice late with Prat in the saddle going 36.2, 101.3 finishing with plenty in reserve. Going well.” Macro Access (#8) who enters this race off a two race win streak and makes his first start off the claim for Jeff Bonde. He enjoyed a perfect trip on June 11 sitting in third behind two horse speed duel between Brave Act and Rye Patch early, angled outside for clear sailing at the leaders into the stretch, and won going away by 1-¾ lengths. The main concern about that win was the quality of rivals he defeated as five horses came back from that June 11 race and returned to run 5th, 6th, 9th, 5th, and 7th in their next start. Razor sharp B+ move on June 14 per Andy. Tribal Tribute (#10) enters this race off a perfect trip pace pressing win on June 16 where him and second place finisher ran 2nd and 1st at each call.
The Play:
WIN bet on (6) ZINVOR at 3-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 6-4, 6-8, 6-10. Small reverse for each.
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