Garth Looks to Fulfill His Promise in Del Mar Futurity

BEST BET for September 2, 2019: ULTIMATE BANGO (Race 6, 8-1)

MULTI-RACE PLAYS

Daily Double Race 9: 

5 with 2,8 = 1 x 2 x $20 = $40 

6 with 2,8 = 1 x 2 x $10 = $20 

Total Wager: $60   

Race 4: (6) ULTIMATE BANGO

I will be including the two morning line favorites underneath in my wagers but I am leaving out the third choice on the morning line RONALD R who returned from a 434-day layoff on July 20 and posted 13-1 upset on a day when his trainer Ron Ellis had two winners both at double digit prices. The son of Nathaniel received an excellent ride from jockey Drayden Van Dyke and perfect pace setup. In that race, he trailed saving ground through the first half mile behind the uncontested leader Snazzy Dresser as he opened up a three-length lead after a half mile in 45.94 fast enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figure. He saved ground into the far turn, angled outside for the stretch drive, and rallied to wear down the battling leaders Factorial, Battle of Memphis, and tiring Snazzy Dresser to win by one-length to earn career best 93 Beyer Speed Figure and 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The form of that race was confirmed when third and fifth-place finishers came back to win. He returns in his second start of the meet and will have to stretch out additional eighth of a mile and there is not a plethora of early speed in this field with Dr. Troutman in this field and RONALD R has not looked as good in the morning reported by National Turf’s Andy Harrington. I will look for a horse that can be forwardly placed and exits a better than looked effort in one of the fastest early paces on the turf this meet. 

With Dr. Troutman the field’s confirmed pacesetter, I expect ULTIMATE BANGO to be the horse to get the first run on the stalkers and closers and he will be positioned second early and will wait to pounce. The California-bred son of Uh Oh Bango has won twice at one-mile on the turf and his most recent victory was a perfect trip victory on June 8 at Santa Anita. In that race, the Blake Heap trainee navigated to the rail to the first turn and saved ground as the uncontested leader Factorial set blazing fractions that saw the half mile and six furlongs fractions coded red by TimeformUS. He continued to save ground on the far turn, angled outside for a clear run into the stretch, and kicked clear to win by 2-½ lengths to earn a career best 89 Beyer Speed Figure and then career best 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was eligible for the Allowance N2X at this same distance on opening day but his connections decided to go for the larger purse and run against California breds in the California Dreamin Stakes on July 26 at 1-1/16 and he ran a deceptive good race in defeat splitting the field after being forced to chase one of the fastest early paces this meet on the turf. In that race, he was parked three to four wide leaving the chute and was three wide into the first turn before stalking the pacesetter What A View in the two-path between rivals on the backstretch and he chased a torrid pace as the half mile and six furlongs fractions coded red by TimeformUS. He began to be in drive midway on the far turn as What A View kicked clear from the rest of the field but ULTIMATE BANGO never quit in the stretch running evenly towards the wire to miss fourth by a half-length to the opportunistic closer Hard Boot. He earned a career best 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure in defeat and the form of that fast early pace was flattered when Acclimate who chased that pace returned on Pacific Classic day to win the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap earning 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure. ULTIMATE BANGO will now stretch out additional sixteenth of a mile but finds no rivals with the type of early speed that What A View has and should either be stalking Dr. Troutman or sitting off a more relaxed early pace scenario. He has come back with three workouts capped off by five furlong move in 1:02 2⁄5 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Full of run home then galloped big in 37.0, 101.3 oy in 114.1. On edge; better than last.” Ruben Fuentas remains in the irons and he will be grossly overlooked at what should be a juicy price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (6) ULTIMATE BANGO at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exactas: 6-3, 6-5. Small reverse for each. 

Race 9: (5) GARTH

The last Grade 1 event of the Del Mar season is the Del Mar Futurity where Bob Baffert will go for fifteenth victory in this race and sends out morning line favorite EIGHT RINGS who comes off 6-¼ length victory in his career debut earning second fastest two-year old 94 Beyer Speed Figure of 2019 and 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The form of that race was flattered when the runner-up Express Train returned to break his maiden with a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. From all points, he looks like a standout but I believe he will suffer his first defeat in this event based on trip and pace. In his debut, he sat absolute perfect pace pressing trip. He was parked three wide in the clear pressing two dueling leaders Shooters Shoot and Phast Pharoah through moderate fractions. He made the winning move with a three wide rush to take over the lead into the stretch and kicked clear. Where he breaks today and the likely pace scenario will compromise his chances. A fast pace is likely with Storm the Court from the inside going for the lead along with Fore Left, Nucky, and recent maiden winner Ginobili making this race have faster than average early fractions. If that scenario happens just as it did in last Saturday’s Del Mar Debutante then this race is primed to set-up for horse coming from off the pace and I was waiting for this colt to show up in this race after his better than looked debut effort where he lost as the overwhelming favorite. 

There was a lot to like about GARTH into his career debut on August 10 where he was sent off as the 1-5 post time favorite. Firstly, his pedigree he is by the outstanding sire Into Mischief out of the mare Country Star who won the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet as a two-year old for the late trainer Bobby Frankel. Secondly, this home bred had worked in splendid fashion according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington with three consecutive B+ moves including a team drill with today’s morning line favorite Eight Rings on July 25 where he stated “Big speed with next out winner Eight Rings waiting in 24.4 finishing out with power in 48.0, 100.4. Much to like.” Thirdly, he was trained by Bob Baffert who earlier in the meet sent out Eight Rings to break his maiden in his career debut but also another progeny of Into Mischief, Immediate Impact, broke her maiden in her debut as well. With these factors he was bet as if he could not lose his first start. However, he failed to live up to his advance billing finishing second as the beaten favorite but I look at this race as educational run because he experienced what really happens during a real race in the afternoon. He was a step slow when he bobbled leaving the gate from post position one, he rushed up quickly and settled behind dueling leaders on the backstretch, split rivals on the far turn and loomed outside of the eventual winner Storm the Court to poke a head in front at mid-stretch but the slow start, rush up to get into contention, and move to split rivals on the far turn all caught up to GARTH as he flattened out on his run and he finished 2-¼ lengths in front of the rest of the field in a respectable performance where he can improve in his second career start. He now adds the blinkers and is being placed in a Grade 1 in a similar profile as the Bob Baffert trained Best last Saturday in the Debutante. Moreover, he continues to thrive in the mornings for the Futurity with consecutive B+ according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a six furlong move in 1:13 3⁄5 that he stated “Improving sort was tons the best over Ragtime Blues going out solo in this strong and relaxed move. Getting better.” With Fore Left, Nucky, and recent maiden winner Ginobili vying for the lead through faster than average fractions, I expect GARTH to break cleanly and patiently bide his time behind this leading trio and when it is time to push button jockey Mike Smith can blow by the leaders in the stretch to score the mild upset in the last Grade 1 of the meet. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) GARTH at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta: 5-6. Small reverse. 

Small Exacta: 5-8. No reverse. 

Race 10: (8) PAKHET 

The final race of the meet brings competitive field of ten three year old fillies and I am playing against KHAIRYA who is the 4-1 second choice on the morning line. The three-year old Twirling Candy filly won only once on the turf and that win was last time on August 1 where he encountered ideal race set up to win by 1-¼ lengths earning career best 76 Beyer Speed Figure and 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That victory was the result of absolute pace meltdown as the three leaders Creative Romance, D’Tatway, and Muthhlia set faster than average early fractions with opening quarter, half-mile and six furlong fractions were coded red by TimeformUS that resulted in those three leaders after a half mile finished fourth, fifth, and eighth and the first three finishers rallied from seventh, sixth, and ninth after the first half mile. There is clear pacesetter in this field in Courteous but I do not feel this race will have the same pace setup as KHAIRYA encountered in that victory and I will throw out this Phil D’Amato trainee from my wagers. 

Trainer Mike McCarthy has had Del Mar meet to forget with only one victory from thirty six starters but PAKHET can give his barn that much needed victory on the final race of the meet. The daughter of Cairo Prince raced greenly and erractally in her career debut when she finished second only to be disqualified. She came back to break her maiden in her second start and stepped up in class to face winners for the first time in the Grade 2 Jessamine at Keeneland on October 10, 2018 and she ran a respectable second behind the leading North American three-year old top filly Concrete Rose. In that race, the former Todd Pletcher trainee raced off the rail in the two path around the first turn and down the backstretch stalking the loose leader in midpack. She angled three paths off the rail on the far turn and was hard urged to keep her position as the winner Concrete Rose saved ground. As the field reached the top of the stretch, she was parked six wide into the stretch and rallied to grab second while no match the perfect trip winner. This runner-up performance encouraged her connections to enter her in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf where she was parked four to five wide into the first turn and continued to race that wide down the backstretch. She was hard urged while parked wide around the far turn and gave way to the wire finishing eleventh beaten 15-½ lengths. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf turned out to be one of the most productive juvenile events of 2018 as fifth, sixth, and eighth-place finishers returned to win such events as the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes (The Mackem Bullet) and Grade 3 Florida Oaks, Grade 2 Edgewood, and Grade 1 Belmont Oaks (Concrete Rose). PAKHET made her first start for trainer Mike McCarthy on July 19 where she did not have the smoothest of trip in her first start off a 259 day layoff. In that race, she was able to race in between rivals through the first six furlongs then she caught in traffic approaching the quarter pole as she had to shuffle towards the rear of the field into the stretch, re-rallied and past tired rivals to be seventh. She has come back with four workouts capped off by a B- move on August 25 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Best outside barnmate The Stiff going 36.1, 101.0 appearing willing all the way. Should move forward.” Under new rider Florent Geroux she can good spot tracking what should be crowded front end in mid pack and pounce to close the meet at generous price. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (8) PAKHET at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exactas: 8-2. Small reverse. 

Small Exacta: 8-9. No reverse. 

Over Emphasize Can Spring Surprise in San Clemente

Friday’s Recap: Total -$100 for the meet. We connected with Oakland Mills but Streak of Luck did not have the smoothest of trips and we move on today’s Saturday’s card. The main action is later part of the card and being Saturday I will focus strictly on WIN bets. 

Race 6: (9) GYPSY BLU

This California bred daughter of Papa Clem is turf sprinting specialist having won four of five starts sprinting on a firm turf course with only one second and she returns to the Jimmy Durante turf course where she scored her only victory on this layout last year at 30-1. The Mark Glatt trainee won the Irish O’ Brian Stakes down the hillside turf course on March 31 at Santa Anita by only a half-length but she overcame a less than idea race shape to win from off the pace and did so over good field. She was taken back off the pace as the three leaders established slow fractions of 21.98 and 44.15 seconds. She began to inch closer down the hill and across the dirt portion of the layout, angled four wide into the turf course, and rallied to wear down the favorite S.Y. Sky to win by a half-length. This returned to be a productive field as the runner-up returned to win Camilla Urso Stakes and Grade 2 Monrovia Stakes in her next two starts with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 111 and 110 respectively and the fifth place finisher Queen Bee To You returned to run second and win the Fran’s Valentine and Bertrando Stakes with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 107 and 112 respectively. One can draw a line through her fourth place finish in the Fran’s Valentine on May 12 because she was running at one-mile a distance that is beyond her distance limitations where she split the field running fourth. She returned to one turn in an Allowance race on June 14 and she ran second behind today’s rival KENTON ROAD but she was compromised by a lack of early speed as the eventual winner got loose on the lead where Gypsy Blu earned a career best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure a figure two points higher because she rallied against the uncontested gate to wire winner. She has come back with two works including sharp half-mile spin in 48 ⅖ on July 12 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “willing while joined home by Blue Moonrise (Baffert) in 23.2, 48.1. Is going quite well.” The lack of pace she encountered last time will not be found here as KENTON ROAD will find pressure from the speedy PAINTING CORNERS and LADY SUEBEE. Norbertto Arroyo Jr. remains in the irons and should stalk a lively pace in mid-pack and pounce over a layout she adores at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

Race 5 $20 Daily Double: (8) BLUE MOONRISE with (9) GYPSY BLU 

$25 WIN on (9) GYPSY BLU at 7-2 or better. 

Race 8: (6) OVER EMPHASIZE 

A daughter of Overanalyze comes into the San Clemente with only a maiden victory over this distance back on April 12 at Santa Anita she rallied from midpack to win by a nose. Since that victory, she has returned with pair of the in the money performances where her off the pace running style was compromised by a lack of pace or trouble at important parts of the pace and I feel this Mike McCarthy trainee needs pace and better racing luck to score the upset in this Grade 2 event. After her maiden victory, she took on winners for the first time on May 3 where her stalking style was compromised by a lack of early speed as the favored winner was able to get loose on an uncontested lead through slow fractions and she won the battle for second at the wire. She stepped up in class in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes and did not have the cleanest of trips in the stretch as the first two finishers Lady Prancelot and Hostess had clear outside rally wide trips. In that race, she saved ground passing the finish line for the first time and saved ground through the first half mile. As the pace began to quicken into and around the far turn, she continued racing on the rail and into the stretch where she attempted to get outside but was in tight Maxim Rate and the leader made the hole not there and Alonso Quinonez had to alter course to the inside in the final sixteenth of a mile and she was clear third. Both her runner-up performance in the paceless Allowance race won by Colonial Creed and her troubled third in the Honeymoon was at 1-⅛ miles and she now cuts back to one-mile the distance of her maiden victory three races back. In addition, she will find early pace for her late kick as TimeformUS anticipates the San Clemente being run at a fast pace with DEVILS DANCE, HARMLESS, and stablemate KALLINKI all vying for the early lead and Over Emphasize should drop over into mid-pack position and produce one late run as she owns the field’s best TimeformUS late pace rating. She has returned with two works including a best of eighteen half mile spin in 48 ⅖ on July 15 where National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “Q up; full of beans late rolling late in 24.3, 48.2. Set for utmost.” I expect Over Emphasize to deliver a career best performance on the cut back in distance and with plenty of speed signed on for her late kick at a price. 

Wagering Strategy: 

$25 WIN bet on (6) OVER EMPHASIZE at 5-1 or better. 

Race 10: (5) BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE)

A son of Declaration of War, BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) ships into Del Mar as part of the Ship and Win program and has hit the board only once in his last three starts but a closer inspection of each start reveals that this Irish bred gelding needs a ground saving trip and plenty of early speed to set up for his late kick and he should find that scenario in today’s finale at Del Mar. After breaking his maiden in late February at Gulfstream Park, he returned on Kentucky Derby week on May 2 at Churchill Downs and suffered a wide trip debacle in a productive race where the winner, Voting Control, won by 2-¼ widening lengths making his first start since the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. In that race, he was parked three to four wide around the first turn and continued racing that wide down the backstretch pressing a slow pace. He continued racing wide into and around the far turn and was wisely wrapped up inside the final furlong to finish ahead of one rival to be ninth beaten eight-lengths. This May 2 Allowance event produced Pillar Mountain who won his next two starts and fifth place finisher Clear for Action returned to win his next start. He was reeled back three weeks later and with a different trip he produced a career best performance to run second earning career best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure behind the perfect trip winner Get Western. Instead of being parked wide into the first turn, new jockey Adam Beschizza got BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) over to the rail into the first turn and he was able to save ground behind the long shot loose leader Discovered. He was angled off the hedge into the clear in the stretch and was second best as Get Western got first run but lost nothing in defeat finishing almost two-lengths clear of the rest of the field. In his most recent, he suffered a wide trip throughout racing three wide into and around the first turn, was parked four wide on the backstretch, and made a premature midrace move into the teeth of a fast pace coded red by TimeformUS and ran evenly through the stretch to split the twelve horse in sixth. He will now make his first start at Del Mar for trainer Steve Miyadi who does well with new acquisitions (86 TimeformUS trainer rating) and he should get the trip to deliver his best performance. TimeformUS anticipates a very fast pace with one dimensional front runners Snazzy Dresser, Factorial, and Foray all having raced or pressed red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their most recent starts. If that pace scenario happens, I expect new rider Norbertto Arroyo Jr to take BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) to the inside in the first turn, stalk in midpack a lively pace, and produce one late run at a nice price in the finale. 

Wagering Strategy: 

$25 WIN on (5) BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) at 5-1 or better. 

Streak of Luck Gets Class Relief in the Osunitas Stakes

Total for Meet: -$50 After Coil Me Home failed to win the 2nd leg of our Daily Double wager on opening day. Friday's first post is at 4pm and what better way to kick off the weekend than great 8 race card at Del Mar. Let's get to work.

Race 5: (8) PAKHET 

The daughter of Cairo Prince has always been well regarded finishing second in her career debut sprinting on the turf and then successfully stretched out in her second career start to break her maiden handily with a perfect stalking trip. She stepped up in class to face winners for the first time in the Grade 2 Jessamine at Keeneland on October 10, 2018 and she ran a respectable second behind the leading North American three-year old top filly Concrete Rose. In that race, the former Todd Pletcher trainee raced off the rail in the two path around the first turn and down the backstretch stalking the loose leader in midpack. She angled three paths off the rail on the far turn and was hard urged to keep her position as the winner Concrete Rose saved ground. As the field reached the top of the stretch, she was parked six wide into the stretch and rallied to grab second while no match the perfect trip winner. This runner-up performance encouraged her connections to enter her in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf where she was parked four to five wide into the first turn and continued to race that wide down the backstretch. She was hard urged while parked wide around the far turn and gave way to the wire finishing eleventh beaten 15-½ lengths. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf turned out to be one of the most productive juvenile events of 2018 as fifth, sixth, and eighth-place finishers returned to win such events as the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes (The Mackem Bullet) and Grade 3 Florida Oaks, Grade 2 Edgewood, and Grade 1 Belmont Oaks (Concrete Rose). She will make her first start as a three-year old off a 259-day layoff but she showed she ran very well fresh when she was beaten a nose in her career debut and comes into this race with six works over the Santa Anita main track including visually impressive half mile spin in 49 ⅖ on June 23 (Pakhet - June 23 Workout) where she outworked the older Arch Anthem. Ruben Fuentas who is the regular rider for Mike McCarthy trained Ohio and has worked PAKHET in the morning takes over in the irons and she should get a cozy stalking trip tracking the expected leader ANONYMOUSLY and RAYANA early and pounce on those two entering the stretch as victory in this race is a stepping stone for the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks on Pacific Classic weekend in August. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (8) PAKHET

Race 6: (8) OAKLAND MILLS 

The Jeff Mullins trainee was sent off as the third longest shot on the tote board in his career debut on June 1 and his price reflection of win early breeding and trainer’s lack of success with first time starters. He was the highest priced of six two-year olds in training sales by the sire With Distinction at the OBS April 2018 at $55,000 which is higher than the sire’s average of $27,700 and that sales price is seven times his stud’s breeding fee of $7,500. The dam Natural Glow has produced five winners from six starters and those five winners have combined to win twenty-six races and majority of them in sprint races. The gelding had steady series of workouts for his debut but nothing flashy that caught the private clockers in the morning and trainer Jeff Mullins does not do well with first time starters with a below average 46 TimeformUS trainer rating in that category. Despite those negatives, OAKLAND MILLS ran very well in defeat catching the impressive Bob Baffert debut winner Comical Ghost who is son of Ghostzapper out of the multiple Grade 1 winner and placed Hystericalady. In that race, OAKLAND MILLS flashed good early speed to press the pace three wide in a contested four-horse battle for the early lead through a very fast opening quarter that was coded red by TimeformUS. He eased off this duel to stalk the three leaders into and around the far turn, re-bid to move into second into the stretch, and flattened out on his run switching to his left lead towards the wire and losing second to the opportunistic closer Beleth in a race where the winner Comical Ghost earned above average 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. OAKLAND MILLS lost nothing in defeat considering how fast  the winner ran and he returned with five workouts including a visually impressive team drill in 1:01 ⅘ on June 23 where he caught unexpected company in what returned to be a three team drill (Oakland Mills - June 23 work) that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Fuentes up; nifty looking drill looking best inside barn mate K P Slickem and the 4f working Save Ground (Cecil) finishing with something left in 36.1, 101.4. Nice over the track.” With this debut race under his belt and drawn outside of the rest of the field, I expected OAKLAND MILLS to flash his customary early speed to take it to this field from the start under regular rider Ruben Fuentas and spring the minor upset as he catches a field that does not have a Comical Ghost. 

Wagering Strategy: My $50 Del Mar starts in this race and it is Daily Double between my two Best Bets on the card. 

$50 Daily Double: 8 with 6 = $50 

Race 7: (6) STREAK OF LUCK

A California-bred daughter of Old Fashioned is situated at one-mile but this distance of a mile and a sixteenth is ideal fit for this gray filly whose previous two starts at one-mile suggest that additional sixteenth of a mile should pose no problem. After wide trip defeat in overnight stakes on December 26, she parlayed a perfect stalking trip en route to a 1-¼ length victory on January 25. She broke well and was taken to the two path stalking a moderate early pace set by Travieza in midpack early. She moved up two wide on the far turn, taken four wide into the clear in the stretch, and kicked past the tired leader to a clear victory defeating a sub-par field that produced a pair of second-place finishes and three off the board finishes in a race that early pace collapsed as the horses that ran 1st, 2nd, and 3rd early weaken to finish 6th, 5th, and 4th. The Matthew Chew trainee moved up in class in the Grade 2 Buena Vista on February 23 and was second best behind the streaking Santa Anita horse for course Vasilika. In that race, she was taken far back behind a blazing early pace that featured red coded TimeformUS pace figures set by the uncontested leader Fahan Mura. She remained far back into the stretch, angled four wide into the stretch, and rallied to be second behind the favored winner in a productive race. Vasilika went on to win the Grade 2 Royal Heroine and the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes in her next two starts and sixth place finisher Elysea’s World came back to win the Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes. She failed to hit the board in her next two starts but those efforts were the result of running at a wrong distance and class level. She wanted no part of the mile and a quarter Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes on March 30 where she split the seven horse field fourth and last time out found herself in a paceless field where she pressed the pace outside of the leader Ahimsa, stayed on gamely to mid-stretch, and weaken to finish sixth beaten three-lengths. She now drops in class to this overnight stakes that is restricted to horses non-winners of a sweepstakes of over $50,000 at one mile or more since September 1, 2018. She returns to Jimmy Durante turf course where she has recorded two victories and one second from three starts over this turf course and jockey Mike Smith remains in the irons and was in the saddle for her previous three victories. She showed her fondness for this turf course with an easy half-mile spin on July 15 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “clearly prefers the turf as this one was gliding over the grass in 26.1, 50.4. On her toes off the break.” A realistic pace for her late kick should exist with IPPODAMIA’S GIRL going to the front with AHISMA and ACHRIA close to the early lead. If she can duplicate her runner-up performance in the Grade 2 Buena Vista she can score her first stakes victory in the first Friday of Del Mar meet. 

Wagering Strategy: 

Main Exacta: 6-1, 6-7. Small reverse. 

Gregorian Chant Looks To Rebound in the Oceanside Stakes

Race 2: (4) MORSE CODE

The meet’s first turf event should have an honest to fast early pace scenario for those stalking or coming from well off the pace. VIA EGNATIA who lead going gate to wire in his most recent victory will go straight to the front under hustling rider Edwin Maldonado and DR. TROUTMAN has been on the lead at the first call (half mile mark) in his turf route races in four of his last six starts. Those two should engage in a fast pace that TimeformUS pace projector predicts and I want a horse that can get first run on closers such as morning line favorite United and fellow closers Ward N’ Jerry and Starting Bloc. 

MORSE CODE won his first start over this Del Mar turf course on the last race of the Pacific Classic day of last year with a perfect stalk and pounce trip versus a suspect field of Allowance N1X rivals that only produced one next out winner and five others that ran second or third in their next start. He returned off a 96-day hiatus on November 22 here at Del Mar going 1-⅜ miles where he saved ground around all three turns, angled out for the drive and failed to muster a serious rally finishing sixth beaten three-lengths. He turned back to one-mile in his first start of this year and finished fast closing fourth beaten three-quarters of a length in a race where the race shape favored horses on or near the front end as the first two finishers, Keep Quiet and Count Alexander ran around the racetrack second and first throughout and this son of Tapit finished in a blanket photo for the minor placings. In his next start on February 17, he raced was parked three-wide racing in mid-pack for the first half mile, raced even wider on the far turn and into the stretch, and was wrapped up to the wire to finish seventh beaten 6-¼ lengths. One can draw a line through his dirt debacle on March 30 as he was off the board in three previous fast main track efforts. The Richard Baltas trainee returned to turf on May 25 in the Gr. 2 Charles Whittingham Stakes and he finished fifth beaten only 1-½ lengths behind his stablemate Marckie’s Water but this was a good effort in defeat considering he abandon his traditional stalk and pounce style to dispute the early pace. In this race, he disputed the pace with pace rival Tiz a Runner through quick fractions for the distance that saw the mile mark coded red by TimeformUS. He put away that pace rival towards mid-stretch and hung in tough to the final sixteenth of a mile before being collared by the closers towards the wire to earn the field’s highest last race 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure and second highest last race 92 Beyer Speed Figure. He makes a realistic drop into this Allowance N2X and has returned with five works over the Santa Anita training track. He drops eight pounds from his previous start with apprentice Jorge Velez in the irons and should revert to his stalking style with his stable mate VIA EGNATIA going for the early lead and if he can build on his effort in the Whittingham Stakes he can spring the minor upset. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (4) MORSE CODE

Race 8: (8) GREGORIAN CHANT (GB) 

The opening day feature Oceanside Stakes should feature an honest pace. The sprinter stretching out LEGENDS OF WAR will go for the early lead but based on his previous form this Scat Daddy will be best around one turn and had advantageous pace scenario featuring blue coded TimeformUS pace figures on May 27 and weakened to third. The pace pressure will come from CITY RAGE who broke his maiden in gate to wire fashion on June 22 where he set a quick pace for the first half quarter of a mile and then was able to rate kindly on the front end through the next half mile and sprinted clear to win by 1-¾ lengths. These two horses should establish pace honest enough where a closer that was compromised by a lack of speed in his previous start should appreciate. 

GREGORIAN CHANT (GB) has always shown talent in each of his first two starts despite being tardy at the gate. He broke his maiden over the Poly Track at Dundalk in Ireland in his career debut by 1-¼ lengths where the Timeform European Analyst stated “missed the break, in rear, still plenty to do entering straight, came wide, stayed on to lead well inside final 1f, hung left, well on top finish; open to improvement.” The Gregorian colt was privately purchased by Slam Dunk Racing and partners and made his North American debut on May 5 at Santa Anita and was visually impressive overcoming tardy start and very slow pace to win by 2-¼ lengths. In that race, he veered out sharply at the start to be away dead last and trailed early behind a very slow early pace disputed by Contagion and Swap Souffle. He reached into contention into the far turn, swept by the two leaders into the stretch, and kicked clear defeating a sub-par field as three horses behind him returned to finish off the board and one horse returned to finish third. Despite the weak field, the visual impression of the victory made him the 6-5 post time favorite in the Cinema Stakes on June 2 and he finished a lackluster fourth beaten 2-¼ lengths behind the second Neptune’s Storm. However, one can draw a line through this race because of the addition of blinkers and the lack of early speed created a race flow in the Cinema Stakes that favored horses on or near the early lead. He broke a step slow in that race, trailed early through the first half mile as King of Speed, eventual winner Neptune’s Storm, and Parsimony raced on or near early pace that featured blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. Despite the slow pace, GREGORIAN CHANT moved forward three wide on the far turn, had a clear run into the stretch, and ran evenly towards the wire to earn career best 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Phil D’ Amato trainee removes the blinkers with four workouts over the Santa Anita training track including five furlong move on July 8 in 1:03 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Franco up; grand looker breezed with a fellow turfer in this smooth training track move. Upside clearly still here.” Although top rider Flavien Prat elects to ride Jasikan, jockey Giovanni Franco takes over in the irons and he should drop over to get cover behind an honest pace between City of Rage and Legend’s of War and produce one late run at a hint of a price.  

Wagering Strategy: My $50 Play of the Day will be a Daily Double using GREGORIAN CHANT and my second preference (3) JASIKAN to my Horse of the Day, Coil Me Home, in the 9th. Below please my Daily Double strategy:

$35 Daily Double: (8) GREGORIAN CHANT with (3) COIL ME HOME 

$15 Daily Double: (3) JASIKAN with (3) COIL ME HOME

Total Wager: $50  

Race 9: (3) COIL ME HOME 

This competitive seven furlong Allowance N1X event should have a spirited early pace with the two entrants with early speed fast enough to have run red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their recent starts. The main pace comes from Midwest shipper, JACK VAN BERG, who has pressed or lead after the first call five of his last five starts and in his most recent start was less than two-lengths behind red coded TimeformUS pace figures. Morning line favorite, KING JACK, was part of the early pace pressing the early pace three wide in the clear and won impressively over Morning Snow who won with an improved 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. Now drawn inside of his main rival, he could get hooked into a pressured pace battle with Jack Van Berg ensuring a fast pace These two entrants should establish a lively pace scenario for a closer who will benefit from this enervating pace. 

COIL ME HOME has been known in his ten race career as a bridesmaid with six seconds or thirds and has not seen the Winner’s Circle since December 9, 2018 at Los Alamitos. His two most recent starts indicate that this California-bred son of Coil is rounding into form. He was defeated as the second choice on May 4 at Santa Anita where this Richard Baltas trainee flashed unusual early speed to contest the early pace with the favored Flagstaff and Candy Cornell early. Those three remained locked into a three-horse speed duel all the way past the quarter pole and into the stretch when COIL ME HOME weakened in the final sixteenth to be third earning a career best and competitive 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure and he finished in front of fourth-place finisher, California Street, who came back to win Allowance N1X on June 22 with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He returned 42-days later and faced California-bred company in Thor's Echo Stakes on June 15 at Santa Anita and was a distant second behind the pace pressing winner Desert Law. A closer inspection of this effort reveals he ran a lot better than his 6-¼ length margin of defeat based on the slow pace the winner was able to press the speed favoring nature of the main track that afternoon. He reverted to his usual closing style trailing the field early as the leader Smiling Angelo and eventual winner Desert Law were able to establish a very slow early pace as the first half mile was colored by blue by TimeformUS pace figures. He trailed the field around the turn, angled out into the stretch, and finished very well to be a distant second against the race shape. Not only was his rally compromised by the slow pace but also speed favoring main track as all four dirt sprints were won by horses on the lead or within one length off the lead at the first pace call and COIL ME HOME rallied against race flow and speed bias in dirt sprints. He has bounced back with three workouts including five furlong move in 1:02 ⅕ on July 6 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Responded willingly with Prat aboard reaching in blinkers for Baltas in 25.1, 102.0. Looks good from here.” He is reunited with Flavien Prat who was aboard his previous win. More importantly, he will find early speed from the likes of JACK VAN BERG, and KING JACK to ensure his late kick will be flattered from the expected race flow. He should be a price considering his lack of winning record and lack of recent victory. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (3) COIL ME HOME 

Main Exacta: 3-2, 3-6. Small reverse for each. 

Elite Sprinter and Debut of American Cleopatra Highlight Sunday's Card

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 5-½ Furlongs, Two-year old Fillies

There is not sufficient data to come up with the probable pace scenario but there is enough data on the horse’s making their second career start. She’s My First who earned the field’s top last race 55 Beyer Speed Figure on July 1 and the form of that race was not flattered when the second and fourth place finishers returned to finish fourth and third respectively in their next start earning 50 and 54 Beyer Speed Figures respectively. War Factor and Tiki Bar Logic exit the July 4 maiden race won by Dynamite Charge. That race earned a 67 Beyer Speed Figure and the form of that race was not flattered when fourth place finisher Auntjenn returned to break her maiden with a 63 Beyer Speed Figure. In short, the second time starters exit below average maiden special weight events at Santa Anita and I will look for a first time starter to spring mild upset.

Union Strike (#3) will make her career debut for trainer Shelbe Ruis for her parents owner team of Mick and Wendy Ruis and this team sent Midnight Pleasure (July 24, $20.90) to break his maiden in his career debut. This dark bay or brown filly was highly regarded at the OBS April 2016 two-year old in training sales worked an eighth of a mile in 10 seconds flat in her training preview and fetched $375,000 which was the third highest priced two-year old by the sire Union Rags from twenty-seven two-year olds at the sale. This price is more than ten times the sire’s stud fee of $35,000 and above the sire’s average sale price of $157,100. In his first crop, Union Rags has connected with 18% debut sire and she is well bred to win early based on her dam side. Her dam Classic Strike won once in twelve starts but she has produced four winners from as many starters including Handsome Mike who won one of four starts as a two-year old. Moreover she has produced two dirt sprint winners Handsome Dennis and Dottie’s Ray. This filly has caught the attention of jockey Mike Smith who has been aboard in the morning to work this filly and her training has impressed National Turf’s Andy Harrington. She recorded nine published workouts including July 14 move at Del Mar that he gave B stating “Mike Smith up; drew clear late from barnmate Sergio in 35.1, 100.2. Some speed evident from this sizey filly.” She concluded her preparation for her career debut with a workout on July 22 that official clockers missed but Andy Harrington caught giving it another B stating this “Was missed off the tab due to this morning's heavy fog but worked from the gate looking clearly best to 2 year old mate Sergio going by the stands in 24.0, 36.1 waiting all the way with Mike Smith up. Big filly has some run.” This well regarded filly is one of two of Shelbe Ruis most expensive two-year olds in her barn with the highest being $600,000 Medaglia D’Oro colt that was purchased at the Fasig Tipton two-year old in training sales. Union Strike is the second two-year old from this stable making their debut and this highly regarded filly is well bred to win early and has trained in strong fashion to attract the services of jockey Mike Smith to work her in the morning and ride her in the afternoon. With all the attention surrounding American Pharoah’s full sister American Cleopatra, Union Strike should go off at acceptable odds to bet her.

In my exotics I will use three horses underneath looking to beat American Cleopatra from finishing in the exacta. She’s My First (#1) finished in a three-horse photo in a below average maiden event on July 1 to lose by half length. The To Honor and Serve filly battled for the early lead through slow fractions between rivals, battled with the eventual second-place finisher to the final furlong, and was out kicked the final furlong. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has won at 29% (2-for-7) in the past year with two-year old making their second start in maiden special weight in a dirt sprint. Her July 15 and July 27 workouts over this Del Mar main track caught the attention of National Turf’s Andy Harrington to give it a B and should be fitter for her second start. Tiki Bar Logic (#7) had trained in respectable manner with a pair of B- workouts per National Turf’s Andy Harrington for her career debut on July 4 and she had a horrendous journey that one can draw a line. According to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “hopped a bit at the start to trail the first few jumps then passed a couple early on the backside, split horses passing the half-mile pole, steadied in tight off heels into the far turn to lose position and have one beat, far back in the stretch, passed horses the final furlong.” She came back with quick half-mile spin in 48 flat on July 24 that Andy Harrington gave a B- stating this “Speedy looker moved up on a worker near the line appearing happy over the surface. Think there is more early gas here.” Edwin Maldonado takes over. Jeweled (#8) is a pricey $190,000 by Sidney’s Candy which was second highest priced yearling out of fifty-three by the sire at the Keeneland September 2015 sales. Stellar B+ move on July 25 caught National Turf’s Andy Harrington.

The Play: I’m looking to beat American Cleopatra in her career debut as her wagering support will be based on her reputation being a full sister to American Pharoah. I’m looking for Shelbe Ruis to continue her winning ways with her two-year olds at what should be a hint of price.

WIN bet (3) UNION STRIKE at 7-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 3-1, 3-7, 3-8. Small reverse for each.

Race 4: Claiming $40,000 to $35,000, 1-Mile, Fillies and mares.

TimeformUS pace projector as well as looking over the probable pace scenario on paper sees this race developing at a fast pace. Little Bit Lovely will go for the early lead but will be pressed or chased by Shysheisnot into the first turn. Horses that will be in the first flight behind the early pace are Look Quickly, Saint Mamie, and Molly’s Honor. The anticipated fast early pace will benefit those rallying from mid-pack such as Dissension, Salsita, and opportunistic closer Anita Partner.

She is returning off a layoff of five hundred and two days layoff but Anita Partner (#5) looks to get her second turf victory in this $40,000 claiming event. She broke her maiden for a $50,000 claiming price at Tampa Bay Downs where she rallied behind a slow pace set by the uncontested leader Mummers Parade to blow by that rival to win by length and three-quarters covering her final quarter of a mile in the field’s best 25.24 seconds. In her next start versus winners she found herself in comfortable position chasing a contested pace battle between Etheridge and Danish Princess in third along the rail after the first half mile. She made her bid along the inside towards mid-stretch and was out finished to the wire in a race where the first three finishers rallied from ninth, sixth, and fifth early. The last time this daughter of Majestic Warrior was seen at the racetrack was on March 17, 2015 at Gulfstream Park where she rallied from the rear of the field to be second by a nose behind the gate to wire winner Gorgeous Dream where she had to rally behind a close to slow half mile in 47.96 seconds and Anita Partner did very well to overcome the race shape covering her final five-sixteenths of a mile in field’s best 30 seconds flat. This bay filly will be doing a lot of things for the first time but those items she will be doing have proven to be winning moves for the Jeff Mullins barn. This barn has won at 20% clip (20-4-1-3) with new acquisitions making their first start in a turf route and that sample includes Itsinthepost (May 8, $2.20-1) who won his first start for Jeff Mullins in a turf route by four and a quarter lengths. The Mullins barn is winless in eight starts with its trainees returning off a layoff of more than six months in a turf route but one of those rivals was Gabriel Charles who ran second three times off layoffs between two hundred days and five hundred and thirty-one days. Jockey Mike Smith takes over in the irons for the first time and when he and Mullins combined in a turf route they win at 27% (15-4-4-1) in the past five years. In addition this bay filly has blossomed in this barn recording twelve workouts including a spin over the Jimmy Durante turf course on July 24 that caught National Turf’s Andy Harrington. She worked five furlongs in 1:03 flat that Andy Harrington gave a B stating this “Very pretty filly was breezing over the turf course in 26.0, 103.1 galloping well around the clubhouse turn.” Despite the extended hiatus that Anita Partner comes into this turf route, she is well prepared for her return by a barn that excels with new acquisitions in a turf route and horses returning off extended layoffs. The presence of jockey Mike Smith in the irons and his success with the Mullins barn the past five years makes Anita Partner a strong selection to spring the minor upset.

In my exotics I will focus my attention on three horses. First is Salsita (#3) who is winless in two starts over the Jimmy Durante turf course as well as winless in five starts at today’s one-mile distance on turf. However she ran a lot better than her 5wd into str, no bid,” comment in her last start routing on the Del Mar turf course. In her previous start over this turf course, she broke from post position ten in a twelve horse field and “tracked four-deep early then outside down the backstretch, came out four-wide around the far turn, entered the stretch five-deep, moved closer near mid stretch, outrun the final furlong,” according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. Her wide journey is best reflected in Trakus where she covered 65, 50, and 43 feet more than the first three finishers. The winner of that race Illuminant went on to finish third to Tepin in the Gr. 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland and won the Gr. 1 Gamely at Santa Anita. She finished a close fourth beaten a length in a restricted starter handicap on June 5 where she had a very troubled trip behind the gate to wire winner Cindy’s Secret who came back to win Allowance N2X on July 16 with a career best 96 Beyer Speed Figure. Drawn well and will get pace for her late kick. Molly’s Honour (#8) drops to a career low for trainer Chris Hartman and she has faced some quality rivals in her last two starts at Churchill Downs. In her previous start routing on the turf, she passed tired rivals to finish sixth on May 13 when she was shuffled back and checked badly midway on the far turn behind a tiring pacesetter in a race where the winner Sweet Acclaim returned to run second beaten a nose in the Gr. 3 Mint Julep Handicap at Churchill Downs and won the Ellis Park Turf Stakes on July 9. In her last start she cut back to one turn sprinting on the turf on June 11 and rallied from last to finish fourth in a race where the first two finishers ran 1st and 2nd at each call and form of that race was flattered when the winner returned to win a Listed Stakes at Indiana Downs in her next start. She has worked twice here at Del Mar including a July 16 move that was missed by official clockers and Andy Harrington gave them a respectable B-. Top rider Santiago Gonzalez takes over in the irons. Dissension (#2) will benefit the most if the early pace develops to be fast as she rode an above average early pace to rally from next to last to finish second on March 11 at Santa Anita. In her previous start routing on the turf she closed from last to finish in a blanket photo finish to be third in a race where the first two finishers were 1st and 2nd at each call.

The Play: I will focus my attention on the exacta plays trying to catch our top choice Anita Partner to finish either first or second. I will recommend a WIN bet on our top choice at the acceptable odds but I will also suggest a WIN bet on Molly’s Honor who I anticipate will go off at or close to her 10-1 morning line and dropping to a career low after facing quality fields in Kentucky makes her a potential overlay possibility.

WIN bet on (5) ANITA PARTNER at 5-1 or better.

WIN bet on (8) MOLLY’S HONOR at 8-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-8. Small reverse for each.

Small Exacta: 5-2. No reverse.

Race 6: Allowance N1X, 5 Furlongs Turf, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector sees the early pace of this turf sprint not favoring a specific running style. The three horses it does see vying for the early lead are Seaside Glory, Cuyathy, and Miss Big Stuff. The horses that look to get first run on this contested battle for the lead are Candy Boss and Deltalina as both horses will be in that first flight and I expect Sturdy One, Snow Cloud, and Madam Mousse hope for a pace meltdown to set up their late kick.

One of the three speed horses will be my top choice and I have been waiting for Cuyathy (#7) to shorten up to this five furlong turf sprint because I strongly feel that this Congrats filly will enjoy this layout. It required seven starts for this filly to break through with her maiden victory and one can understand why she was dismissed as the longest shot on the tote board at 37-1 on May 27 in her first start on the turf racing down the hillside turf course and she nearly pulled off the major upset losing by one-length in a race where the first two finishers rallied from 5th and 6th after the first half mile. In that she clearly to set the pace while off the rail chased by Candy Boss and Amber Louise early. She was able to clear those two speed rivals and get over to the rail down the hill and appeared full of run as she opened up more than a two-length lead entering the main turf course and held on well to mid-stretch before she started to shorten stride and switch to her incorrect left lead past the final sixteenth of a mile as she was collared by the closers to finish third. The Handicapper’s Report Trip Note writer suggested “she can’t run this far,” and thus will be better suited to shorter distances such as today’s five furlongs on the turf. Although she failed to hit the board in four previous starts on a dirt main track, she switched to the main track on July 1 as turf racing was canceled the final three weeks of the Santa Anita meeting and she crossed the finish line last beaten sixteen lengths behind the once beaten Bendable. She broke with her field but was immediately parked three wide in a three horse speed duel with favorite Bendable and Street Surrender as those three battled through blistering fractions of 21.42 and 44.34 seconds. Cuyathy was part of this fast pace speed duel all the way to the quarter pole where she gave way entering the stretch and was eased through the lane by jockey Joe Talamo. The extent of just how fast those three went can be described by reviewing the Moss Pace Figures and seeing they went above average splits through the first half mile (+8, +3). This filly will now make the switch from the dirt to the turf a move trainer Bill Morey Jr. has connected at excellent 29% (14-4-1-3) in the past year with that move and the speed of this field displayed her early zip with a five furlong 58.3 move on July 24 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington actually caught faster than the official clocking. In this B move, Andy stated “Pedroza up; honed speed with a this blisteringly fast solo spin in 34.1 early finishing sharply in 57.2. Reduction in distance helps this sprinty traveler.” She will finally get that turn back in distance to five furlongs and returns to turf where she ran very well in a race that fell apart for the closers on May 27 at Santa Anita. If she breaks aggressively to the front the others in this field will have to try to chase her at what should be juicy odds as possible gate to wire theft to begin the Guaranteed $600,000 Late Pick 4.

In my exotics I will use the three main contenders on the morning line. Seaside Glory (#4) who broke her maiden on June 17 where she flashed early speed from the rail in a five horse field to establish a pressured pace, shook free of her pace rival, and drew clear to win quite easily. She too press a quick pace (+4, -1) but nowhere near the extent our top choice and bounced out of her maiden victory with a sharp B workout on July 17 here at Del Mar. Deltalina (#8) broke her maiden on May 27 where she found herself establishing the early pace through quick fractions, shook free of her closest pace presser, and kick clear easily holding the late bids safely. The biggest issue with that maiden win was she defeated a sub-par field with only seventh-place finishers returning to win and one third-place finish out of that race. Last time out at Churchill Downs she settled into a comfortable spot tracking dueling leaders down the backstretch, she pushed along move three wide around the far turn and into the stretch where she switched to her incorrect left lead past mid-stretch, and picked up the pieces for third. She has trained in sharp fashion with back to back B moves per Andy Harrington over this Del Mar turf course for trainer Wesley Ward who wins at gaudy 50% (8-4-1-0) the past five years on the Del Mar turf course sprinting. Peach Cove (#1) enters this race with B move per Andy Harrington and showed plenty of quality defeating a thirteen horse field in her native New Zealand.

The Play: I strongly believe the switch to turf and shortening up to five furlongs on this course is exactly what our top choice Cuyathy will be well suited to. At juicy odds of 12-1 on the morning line she gets our WIN bet with Exactas top and bottom looking to make a score if Cuyathy is too fast for this group.

WIN bet on (7) CUYATHY at 8-1 or better.

Main Exacta key box: 7 / 1, 4, 8.

Race 7: Allowance N1X/Optional Claiming $40,000, 6-½ Furlongs, Three and up

TimeformUS pace projector anticipates that this sprint will be a hotly contested early pace that will be disputed by Glacken Too, Schillairess, and morning line favorite Jazzy Times. From the inside post position, Rocket Fuel will employ stalking tactics as he will be out-sprinted for the early lead joined by Hank the Tank and Mad Bum. Look for Brimstoned, Old Man Lake, Alright Alright, and Pulmarack to be charging late hoping for a pace meltdown.

I am not going to throw out Jazzy Times from my wagers but I will take a stand against second choice Rocket Fuel. TimeformUS suggest the early pace will be fast and the one time he encountered a real fast pace was on May 30 here at Santa Anita where he broke from the rail and was out sprinted by the very quick and next time out winner Drefong through quick early fractions for a half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+4, +1) and crossed the wire fifth in a six horse field. The blinkers were added on three weeks ago on July 10 and he ran excellent second in a track record performance by Power Jam earning the field’s highest last race 98 Beyer Speed Figure. However that was a very glib and fast surface and the pace was only moderate for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-2, -3). He will have to prove from the rail he can chase or pressed a type of sprinter’s early pace that my top two choices have already faced in their most recent starts.

Three horses in this race are the main body of early pace but I strongly believe that Glacken Too (#3) is the horse with the proven form at the distance, class level, and should be a very generous price considering he has finished off the board in his last two starts beaten a combined margin of twenty-one and a quarter lengths. He takes a drop into the optional claiming price of $40,000 for the first time in five starts for the meets leading trainer Phil D’Amato and defeated Allowance N2X/Optional Claiming $62,500 company at this distance on May 14 at Santa Anita where he earned a career best 96 Beyer Speed Figure which is above par for today’s class level (94 Beyer Speed Figure) and he had to earn this victory running hard from start to finish. In this race he and his pace rival Guy Code broke running as those two opened up a two and half length lead on the next horse Kristo as they blazing an opening quarter in 21.55 seconds. This Smoke Glacken gelding continued pressing the pace in the two path on the far turn when he received more pressure as Kristo ranged up three wide around the far turn only a length off the leader after a 43.98 second half mile, he shook free of Guy Code, turned away a challenge from Kristo, and kicked clear into the stretch to win going away by two and quarter lengths. The early pace for the first half mile was fast per Moss Pace Figures (+4, +1) and the extent of the early pace took its toll on Guy Code who tired badly to finish fifth beaten five lengths and Kristo who finished fourth beaten three and a half lengths. The career best speed figure that Glacken Too earned was confirmed when the runner-up and fifth place finisher returned to run first and second in their next start on June 11 earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 94 respectively. In addition, sixth place finisher Heir of Storm came back to go gate to wire in a $50,000 claiming sprint earning 97 Beyer Speed Figure. This strong performance resulted in Glacken Too going off as the 2-1 second choice behind Lord Nelson in Allowance N3X sprint on June 3 where he had no chance when you factor the amount of ground he lost from start to finish. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “prompted five-deep early then tracked outside, outrun around the far turn, five-wide again into the lane, faded to last.” Trakus reported that he covered 22 feet more than the winner Lord Nelson. The latter earned a career best 100 Beyer Speed Figure and confirmed that figure by returning to win the Gr. 1 Triple Bend Handicap on June 25 with the same speed figure. In his last start on July 8 over this same distance as today he lost whatever chance he had at the start. Sent off as the second choice he bobbled at the start to be away last, rushed up quickly to chase the favored leader Masochistic through 21.53 second opening quarter, began to drop back midway on the far turn as he was urged to keep up with the leader after 43.61 second half mile, and eased through the stretch to finish last beaten thirteen and a quarter lengths. This was no ordinary Allowance N3X sprint as the conditions of this race were written for horses such as Masochistic to return and the favored winner earned an off the chart 107 Beyer Speed Figure which is tied for the second fastest race up to one mile this year only behind Frosted’s 123 Beyer Speed Figure in the Met Mile on June 11 at Belmont Park. After defeating Allowance N2X rivals three races back and facing Graded Stakes caliber sprinters in his last two starts he takes realistic drop into this optional claiming $40,000 today and he bounced back with stellar five furlong move in 1:00 ⅘ on July 21 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington actually caught going faster giving him a B+. Andy stated in this “Big drill for this roan going in a faster than given 35.0, 59.1 then took off on the gallop out in 112.0 going out on a huge triple gallop in 138.3 for a mile. Set for best; Garcia up.” With a clean start under Martin Garcia he should prompt the early pace of Jazzy Times and I believe those two can run first and second around the racetrack as Glacken Too should be set on the drop in class as my BEST BET on the card.

Jazzy Times (#8) has lost at odds of 1-2 and 4-5 in his last two starts but this Discreetly Mine dark bay horse won the early pace battle on June 25 but lost the war in a race that saw the winner Who’s Out rallied from fifth to win by two and a half lengths. He broke on top in that race and was pressured longshot Golden Atlantic through a 21.41 second opening quarter of a mile, shook that rival easily, took charge while guided over to the rail into and around the far turn, was challenged by the opportunistic stalking winner Who’s Out at mid-stretch, and was second best matching his career best 92 Beyer Speed Figure which is the second highest last race speed figure in the field. He ran the best race in defeat as he contested a quick early pace for a half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+6, +1) and he raced on the rail from the three-eighths pole to the finish on a main track that favored outside paths making his defeat much better than it appears on paper. He is drawn directly outside of his two main pace rivals in Glacken Too and Schillairess and should workout a similar trip to his debut victory on May 7 at Churchill Downs where he won by two and three-quarter lengths where he defeated three next time out winners. He enters this race with your typical Bob Baffert back to back B+ works per National Turf’s Andy Harrington and the strength of that race was validated when the winner returned to run second on Saturday repeating his 97 Beyer Speed Figure behind Conquest Cobra who won by three and half lengths earning career best 103 Beyer Speed Figure.

In my exotics underneath those two horses I will use Brimstoned (#2). This Unusual Heat gelding won his his first two starts over the Del Mar main track by more than thirteen lengths and in his only defeat here at Del Mar happened on November 14 where he was unruly in the paddock, very difficult to saddle, and washed out going to the gate per Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. He wanted no part of the turf versus a “key” race field on January 18 at Santa Anita and he won his two previous starts returning off layoffs of fifty-seven and forty-eight days. Schillariess (#5) takes a big step up in class after leading gate to wire versus Starter Allowance rivals on June 25 where he set an early pace slower than Jazzy Times and won going away over Basinca who returned to finish second beaten a nose earning a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in his next start. Undefeated in two starts on the main track.

The Play: My action is strictly focused around our top two choices Glacken Too and Jazzy Times with preference on the former exiting the tougher races and taking the drop in class after defeating Allowance N2X rivals three races back.

WIN bet on (3) GLACKEN TOO at 7-2 or better.

Main Exacta Box: 3-8.

Small Exactas: 3-2, 3-5, 8-2, 8-5. No reverse.