Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and up
TimeformUS pace projector has this race going at an early pace that does not favor horses running on the early lead of coming from off the pace. From the rail, Blue Navy Blue will go straight to the early lead from the rail with Exhale chasing that rival down the backstretch and Conquest Sabre Cat will not be too far behind that early pace pressing or tracking the early pace in third. Horses that will be in the first flight right behind this early pace will be Feldini and Ral Rue as both horses look to get first run on the early leaders. Deep closers such as Dark Energy, Aztec Warrior, and Bedeviled will hope the pace collapses to set up for their late kick.
This race is an excellent gambling opportunity because I look to defeat morning line favorite Bedeviled (#11). He ran second for a maiden claiming price of $75,000 on June 18 behind the gate to wire winner Fabozzi who was able to get away with soft early pace through the first half mile (23.80 and 47.81). In his last start the Lookin at Lucky colt was able to get a fast early pace on July 31 behind a quick pace battle between He Could and Dance Hall Doctor, moved up closer on the far turn, rallied between rivals through the stretch, and one-paced through the stretch losing second to the pace presser He Could. He earned the field’s highest last race 78 Beyer Speed Figure on turf but that field was bunched with the first seven horses separated by only 4-¼ lengths. Drawn outside he will need another fast pace setup and negotiate traffic in this full field. I look for horses that will be forwardly placed but not necessarily on the lead to win this event.
The Scott Hansen trainee, Feldini (#9) stretches out following two respectable sprint efforts and this Twirling Candy should be set to graduate in his third start following ninety-three day layoff. He made his first start off a brief freshening on June 26 where he tracked the uncontested leader Candy Promises in third, pushed along on the rail around the far turn to keep up with the early leaders, angled three wide into the stretch, and finished clear of the rest of the field in a race where the first two finishers ran second-and-first after the first call and he attempted to stalk the pace and rally over a main track that strongly favored inside-speed in a race that produced two next-time out winners (Candy Promises and Gabo’s Macondo). He returned four weeks later in his second start on lasix and with the blinkers and ran respectable second in a strong maiden event won by Papa Papa Papa (93 Beyer Speed Figure). In that race he settled off the pace in mid-pack along the inside behind three-horse speed duel thru quick opening quarter per Moss Pace Figures (+4). He was shuffled back to last into the far turn, re-rallied from the rear to pick up horses on the far turn, angled outside into the stretch, and rallied for second. The strength of that maiden race was confirmed when the winner returned to win Starter Allowance by three-quarters of a length earning 91 Beyer Speed Figure. He will make his first start on turf for trainer Scott Hansen who wins at 21% (3-for-14) in the past five years with his starters trying turf for the first time and he is by 12% first time turf sire Twirling Candy who wins at 16% overall with his turf starters. The bay colt will stretch back out to two turns from two sprints and that should allow excellent turf rider Drayden Van Dyke (four turf wins this meet) to settle this colt in the second flight right behind the expected pacesetter Blue Navy Blue and Exhale early and get first run on the leaders ahead of the closers Dark Energy, Aztec Warrior, and morning line favorite Bedeviled. In his first start on turf at 6-1 on the morning line and bred to love the surface switch to turf for a trainer that is successful with that move makes Feldini the selection to upset the first leg of the Pick Six.
In my exotics I will use two horses. Exhale (#3) was bet down to the 5-2 post time favorite based on a series of stellar workouts per National Turf’s Andy Harrington and superb pedigree. He cost $500,000 at the Keeneland September 2014 yearling sales which is the highest priced yearling by Scat Daddy and is by the Unbridled’s Song dam Siren Serenade whose second dam the multiple Gr. 1 winner Versailles Treaty. He entered with three consecutive B+ works capped off by a 48 ⅘ move on July 17 and the beautiful bay colt did not run to expectations of his workouts finishing in front of two rivals behind gate to wire winner Papa Papa Papa on July 23 here at Del Mar. He trailed early, made a move leaving the half mile pole to inch closer into and around the far turn, lost his punch into the stretch, and weaken through the stretch as jockey Mike Smith wisely wrapped up on this colt through the stretch while on his left lead to the wire. The surface switch should pose no issue for this bay colt as Scat Daddy is 14% first time turf sire and 16% overall with turf starters and comes into this race with a pair of B works per Andy Harrington. From a pace standpoint, he should get a beautiful trip tracking Blue Navy Blue early and he will get first run on that pacesetter. Angel Eria (#8) makes her United States debut versus males but that should be no issue for this Irish bred as she faced males in three of her first four starts. She was shipped to North America because this filly has a clear affinity for firm ground as she has recorded two seconds from three starts on firm ground with her only off the board finish happen when she lost by 1-¾ lengths. She makes her North American debut with series of stamina works including seven furlong work on August 7 that Andy Harrington gave a B with today’s rider Flavien Prat in the irons. Trainer Neil Drysdale is 20% (5-for-25) with foreign shippers the past five years.
The Play: I look to beat the horses that have recent form on turf such as Bedeviled, Dark Energy, Aztec Warrior, and Conquest Sabre Cat. I believe the surface switch to turf and stretch out to two turns will suit my top choice Feldini perfectly.
WIN bet on (9) FELDINI
Main Exactas: 9-3, 9-8. Small reverse for each.
Pick 3: 3, 8, 9 / 3, 4, 5 / 7, 12 = 3 x 3 x 2 x $2 = $36
Race 5: Allowance N1X/Optional Claiming $20,000, 1-Mile, Fillies and mares
TimeformUS pace projector has identified two horses that will be on or near the lead but at an early pace that does not favor a specific running style. Filly on Fire stretching out to a route will be on the lead but will prompted by Miss Star Maker into the backstretch. Melanistic and Bako Sweets look to be in the first flight behind the leaders. Cordiality will be in mid-pack along with morning line favorite Allsquare. The Spiral Jetter and Glamsquad will hope for a pace meltdown to set up their late kick.
She will be stretching out to one-mile on a fast main track for the first time but based on her two sprint efforts, Filly on Fire (#5) is strictly the one that must be caught and she comes into this California-bred Allowance N1X in sneaky good form for new trainer Michael Pender. I will draw a line through her May 22 down the hillside turf course where he failed to hit the board in her previous turf start. She ran fourth beaten four-lengths behind the opportunistic closer Margie’s Minute on April 17 in a race where the fast early pace set it up perfectly for the closer. In that race, this Stormin Fever filly was parked four wide early chasing the uncontested leader Sugar Spice and made a brief bid leaving the backstretch into the far turn to challenge for the lead, dropped back into the quarter pole, and ran evenly to the wire defeating two horses to the wire. She raced close to a very fast early pace for a half mile per the Moss Pace Figures (+8, +3). After her turf debacle in her next start, she switched to her preferred dirt main track on July 1 at Santa Anita and ran second beaten five and half lengths behind the 2-1 second choice My Palmilla. However this dark bay or brown filly ran the best race in defeat winning the early pace battle for the early lead but losing the war to the opportunistic stalker who rallied from fourth early. In that race, she broke running to the early pace but found herself sandwiched between two other pace rivals Radiant Journey and Moonie as those three set a blazing early pace for a half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+9, +3) early. She continued battling for the early lead around the far turn when the winner My Palmilla blew by her to take over the lead into the stretch but Filly on Fire stayed on through the stretch to be second finishing 2-¼ lengths in front of the rest of the field. She ran the best race in defeat as her two pace rivals weaken badly from this pace battle to finish fifth beaten 8-½ lengths and sixth beaten 15-¾ lengths. She will make her first start off the claim for trainer Michael Pender who is winless in four starters with his starters off the claim stretching out from a sprint to a route. She gets blinkers back on, stretching out, and gets hustling rider Martin Pedroza which means she will go straight to the early lead. She has bounced back with four workouts over the Del Mar main track including a best of seven six furlong move in 1:12 ⅖ on August 1 that Andy Harrington gave a B- commenting “Pretty filly kicked home sharply in 37.3, 100.3 (23.0 LQ) galloping out 6f in 113.2. Feeling well; unclear if two turns is within her scope.” She is quicker than her expected pace rival Miss Star Maker and might make an uncontested lead if she is left alone. At generous 8-1 on the morning line she is one of my best longshot bets on a price laden Sunday card at Del Mar.
In my exotics, I will three horses drawn directly inside of our top choice Filly on Fire. In order of preference, Allsquare (#4) enters this race with two second-place finishers but both efforts were to her stablemate the undefeated Enola Gray. She was part of the slow early pace on May 28 where she chased home her favored stablemate to the wire to be a clear second in a race where the third-place finisher Cheekaboo returned to win Gr. 2 Honeymoon on the turf with 89 Beyer Speed Figure and fifth place finisher Hacktivism returned to win Allowance N1X on turf with 78 Beyer Speed Figure. She shorten up to seven furlongs in the Fleet Treat Stakes and trailed behind a moderate early pace pressed by the favored winner and rallied to grab second from the early leader Fantasy of Luck in a highly rated race (101 Beyer Speed Figure). The pace projector sees this Square Eddie filly in mid-pack but she has more position early speed and could find herself in the first flight behind the early pace. The field’s top last race 85 Beyer Speed Figure will appreciate escaping the shadows of her more fancied stablemate and enters this race with B work coming into this race per Andy Harrington on August 8. The Spiral Jetter (#3) has finished behind both Enola Gray and Allsquare in her last two starts but one can make a case she ran the better race in their only start routing on the main track in the May 28 Melair Stakes at Santa Anita. She trailed behind a very slow early pace, unleashed a crazy premature move while very wide around the far turn, sustained that bid to mid-stretch, and lost her punch to lose by 8-¼ lengths. The Don’tsellmeshort filly ran 66 feet, 49 feet, and 35 feet more than the first three finishers per Trakus. She turned back to one turn in Fleet Street Stakes on July 22 and stalked the pace in good position on the rail down the backstretch, moved into third at the top of the stretch, and was out finished by the pacesetter Fantasy of Luck for third. She switches to Rafael Bejarano for the first time and he is 7/3-1-2 in the past five years for trainer Andy Mathias. Cordiality (#2) exits a series of lesser competition at Los Alamitos, Golden Gate, and Sacramento but enters this race with a four-race win streak. He overcame a slow race shape to rally from next to last to win going away on July 8. Trainer Mark Glatt wins at 36% (4-for-11) with his starters off the claim in a dirt route per DRF Formulator and teams up with the meets leading rider Flavien Prat in the irons.
The Play: My expectation in this race is that Filly on Fire will go straight to the lead with blinkers and Martin Pedroza in the saddle and will attempt to make every pole a winning one especially that the early fractions will be slower than the pace she faced in her last two dirt sprints.
WIN bet on (5) FILLY ON FIRE.
Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-4. Small reverse.
Small Exacta: 5-2. Small reverse.
Race 6: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and upward
A basic glance at the running lines of the entrants in this field and one can see why TimeformUS pace projector anticipates a very fast early pace. St. Joe Bay who has been on the lead at the first pace call in his last three starts will be on the early lead but will have company early. Act stretching out will be forwardly placed close to that fast early pace along with Hobbits Hero and Shortsstormcoming. Horses that will be in mid-pack behind this fast early pace hoping the fast pace collapses are Cardiac, morning line favorite Zinvor, and He Will. In behind these horses that will benefit from an enervating early pace are Fritz Johansen, Tuco, and Reflected Star.
I do have a play against in this competitive Allowance race on turf and it is the second choice on the morning line Tuco. He ran fourth on opening day of the Santa Anita winter meet where the winner, sixth, and tenth-place finishers came back to win their next start. He was my top choice in his second start in North America and ran second behind pace pressing winner Kenjistorm who won the early pace battle and won the war as Tuco benefited from this fast pace to rally from mid-pack to finish second. He will now make his first start off a 190-day layoff and according to DRF Formulator trainer Doug O’Neil does not excel with returnees making their first start off a long layoff in a turf route. In the past five years, he has sent eight starters to the starting gate in a turf route off a layoff between 180 to 200 day layoff and NONE of them won and none of them finished in the money. This is an important statistic because Tuco is returning off a long layoff in a turf route and will get plenty of support at the windows based on leading turf rider Flavien Prat in the irons.
The anticipated fast early pace that TimeformUS projects and what is seen on paper will allow jockey Joe Talamo to drop over from the outermost post position and allow Rare Candy (#12) the ability to track from off the pace and make one run. The David Hofmans trainee has lost at odds of 2-5 and 4-5 in his last two starts but the his winless record in six starts on a fast main track strongly suggest he has been running on the wrong surface. After finishing second in the California Chrome Stakes on April 30 where he parlayed a very slow early pace to be outgamed by the winner Uncle Lino, he dropped in class to face Allowance N1X on the fast main track on May 29 and finished off the board at 2-5. Adding the blinkers, he showed early speed and was immediately challenge for the early lead by his pace rival Curlin Rules as those two rivals opened up on the rest of the field establishing a moderate early pace for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures. He continued being pressed all the way around the far turn, was collared into the stretch, and out finished to the wire behind the perfect trip stalking winner Dalmore who returned to win the Gr. 3 Affirmed Handicap with a career best 102 Beyer Speed Figure. He returned to the same class level on July 2 where he was in comfortable position stalking dueling leaders To the Bar and Brave Act in fourth early. He moved up three wide under a drive on the far turn, lost his punch into the stretch, and weaken to third in a race where he inherited that position. Although that Allowance N1X has returned to be a negative race with three horses returning to finish 6th, 6th, and 5th, Rare Candy deserves another chance because of the switch to the turf. He broke his maiden over this Jimmy Durante turf course at today’s one-mile distance and progeny of Twirling Candy win at 26% rate with turf routes per DRF Formulator. Moreover he has returned with four workouts over the Del Mar main track including impressive six furlong move in 1:12 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Came home willingly while working solo in a slower than given 37.2, 113.3 galloping well to the 6 1/2f pole in 127.1. Going well; always thought this one's preferred surface was the grass.” In field loaded with early speed his stalk and pounce style will be more effective on turf than dirt and is generous 8-1 on the morning line after going off as the favorite in his last two starts.
In my exotics I will recommend using three horses. Our second preference was our top choice on July 24, Zinvor (#7) who I thought was going to settle off the early pace and stalk but was sent for the early lead where he establish a measured early pace under pressure from the longshot Image of Joplin, shook free of that rival to open up a 1-½ length lead around the far turn, maintained that margin through the stretch, and held off the late bid of the favored Macro Access to win by three-quarters of a length earning the field’s highest last race 96 Beyer Speed Figure. The Tribal Rule gelding is undefeated in two starts over the Del Mar turf course and his three victories on turf have been at today’s one-mile distance. Although trainer Mark Glatt is 15% (2-for-13) with his starters off the claim in a turf route, he bounced back with a sharp half mile spin on August 7 that Andy Harrington gave a B commenting “Drew clear from a pair of unrelated workers flashing his usual zip in 24.2, 48.3 out fast in 100.2. Looks like a very nice claim.” Jockey Santiago Gonzalez remains in the irons and can lead or stalk from off the early pace. Act (#3) is interesting prospect stretching out to two turns for the first time and dropping from an open stakes and Allowance N2X into this Allowance N1X event. He set the early pace, drifted in at mid-stretch as he was tired horse, and weaken to finish fifth on July 20 where the winner Why Two returned to win Green Flash Handicap with 97 Beyer Speed Figure and runner-up Bottle Rocket returned to win Allowance N2X with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. He switches to jockey Drayden Van Dyke who was aboard when this War Front horse broke his maiden and has four turf wins this meet. The Peter Eurton trainee returned to trained very well over this turf course since but Andy Harrington commented on his August 7 work that he has “Plenty of run here; getting this one to relax is the key.” Reflected Star (#10) covered 46ft and 31ft more than the winner Zinvor and Macro Access to finish third on July 24. He will get a fast pace to set up for his late kick and Victor Espinoza remains in the irons for the third consecutive time.
The Play: The belief is the surface switch to turf and removing the blinkers are the ingredients for Rare Candy to emerge victorious. With the exception of Act who will be close to the early lead, I look for the early pace to collapse for horses stalking or coming from well off the early pace. At a price above 8-1 I will also recommend betting ACT to win as well.
WIN bet on (3) ACT to WIN at 8-1 or better
WIN bet on (12) RARE CANDY to WIN at 6-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 12-3, 12-7, 12-10. Small reverse for each.
Additional Exacta: 7-12, 12-7.
