Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and upward
TimeformUS sees the early pace of this race not favoring a specific running style. Malware (#4) who will be stretching out to two turns for the first time will go for the early lead and will be prompted by Shehastherightstuff (#7) early. In behind this leading duo are Pacific Swell (#1), Warm Endowment (#3), and California Sunshine (#6). With Malware stretching out I believe that the fractions will be honest to set this race up for our longshot selection to break her maiden in only her second start.
X S Heat (#5) finished behind Shehastherightstuff, Starlite Style, and Warm Endowment in their only meeting on June 18 at Santa Anita at today’s one mile distance finishing sixth beaten 12-¼ lengths behind the winner All that Heat. Although it requires a leap of faith for this daughter of Golden Balls to improve many lengths to turn the tables on those that finished ahead of her, this James Cassidy trainee will only make her second start and she was clearly given a “educational” experience in her career debut. She was went off at 23-1 in that first start forced to break from post position twelve in a twelve horse field, she was caught very wide almost four paths off the rail into the first turn and to avoid losing more ground was shuffled back and settled in the rear of the field in tenth early as dueling leaders Rebarules Again and Unusually Talented blazed a half mile in a quick 46.11 seconds. She continued not to be asked for any run around the far turn, angled off a tired horses heels at the top of the stretch, and was allowed to finish under her own power passing tired rivals through the stretch to split the field in sixth. This was a respectable performance under the conditions and she covered 44ft and 14ft more than the third through fifth place finishers. She will now make her second career start routing on the turf in a maiden special weight event a move her trainer James Cassidy has won at 6% (18-1-0-2) with that move in the past five years but she has shown signs of improving in her second start per National Turf’s Andy Harrington. She has bounced back with three workouts including a B- move on July 8 where Andy stated “Lumbery sort was pointed in the right direction to the line with a 48.4 last 1/2. Biggish sort should benefit from her first try.” Jockey Victor Espinoza remains in the irons and draws a much better post position in five and will not have to be guided far back early as Victor Espinoza can position this filly in midpack without losing too much ground into the first turn to be in good stalking position through the first half mile. At odds of 8-1 or better I look for this bay filly to turn the tables on many of her rivals with a cleaner journey.
In my exotics I will recommend using three runners. Starlite Style (#2) draws much better post position after drawing post eight and post eleven in eight and twelve horse fields respectively in her last two starts. The daughter of Unusual Heat gets the services of Kent Desormeaux who has two wins on the turf from seven wins so far. Californiasunshine (#6) set a fast pressured pace in her first start off a two hundred and thirty-nine day layoff on July 1, shook her early pace rival, and was worn down by a perfect trip stalking winner. That race was versus males and now she faces her own gender. In her only start on turf she finished a dismal fifth on November 5 over this Jimmy Durante turf course but did so versus a productive field that produced three next time out winner. Shehastheritestuff (#7) had minor traffic trouble when she finished third on June 18 as she was racing towards the inside around the far turn and into the stretch as the winner had clear sailing while wide into the lane. The Unusual Heat filly will be the first to attack if the pacesetter Malware weakens.
The Play:
WIN bet on (5) X S Heat at 7-1 or better.
Main Exacta box key: 5 / 2, 6, 7
Race 7: Allowance N1X, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Fillies and mares
This race has very little when it comes to the role of a confirmed pacesetter. The only exception will be Queenofhercastle (#9) who will be stretching out following a sprint and will be tracked by morning line favorite Summer Lady (#6) early per TimeformUS pace projector. Those that will be in position behind the early leader will be Mai Tai (#7) and Algorhythmic (#8). Look for closing kick from Stole A Kiss (#1), Lynne’s Legacy (#2), and Hijiki (#5) in the stretch.
The role of the pacesetter belongs to Queenofhercastle (#9) and is strictly the one they must attempt to reel in at juicy morning line odds of 15-1. She is winless without hitting the board in three prior starts on the turf but today she meets a field with very little early speed and she should carry her speed better with that comeback race under her belt plus the two works that caught National Turf’s Andy Harrington. The race that highlighted her as the role of the pacesetter was her fourth-place finish on September 4 at one-mile on the main track here at Del Mar. The daughter of Minister’s Wildcat was placed in third no more than one-length off the dueling leaders She’s Reddy and Yana as those two blazed quick fractions of 22.56 for an opening quarter and 46.80 for a half mile. The Matthew Chew trainee was involved in that hot early pace all the way around the far turn and stayed on gamely to mid-stretch where the early pace took its toll and she weaken to finish fourth in a race where the early pace collapsed for the closers who rallied from fifth-seventh-fourth. The Moss Pace Figures pointed out to a very hot early pace for the first half mile (+17, +8). She was not seen for the rest of 2015 and the bay filly returned from a two hundred and ninety-three day layoff on June 23 going 5-½ furlongs on the main track at Santa Anita and she ran a respectable third under the conditions in a race she needed. According to the Handicappers Report Trip Notes, she “had one beat while stalking the three leaders down the backstretch, angled out four-wide to loom a big threat leaving the far turn, did not quicken when needed in the lane, flattened out the final furlong.” She gets a rider switch to Gary Stevens whose two victories this meet were on the turf going long and she has improved with that comeback race under her belt according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. She worked six furlongs in 1:14 flat on July 7 where Andy caught working with “stakes sort Singing Kitty looking second best late but was willing home in in 48.1, 114.1. Filly is clearly more fit out of last try.” She concluded her preparation for this race with a B move on July 14 where Andy Harrington praised with a B stating he “Had this drill go a full 4f in a willing 23.3, 47.3 flashing some late reach for Chew. Nice energy down here.” If she can ration out her speed effectively going two turns on the turf she can prove a very tough rival to run down especially her juicy morning line odds of 15-1.
In my exotics I will use morning line favorite Summer Lady (#6) who has finished first or second in her last four starts all on turf and had significant trouble on June 17 at one-mile on the turf at Santa Anita. Per the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “stalked early then fell into a tracking spot down the backstretch, picked it up around the far turn then she checked between horses midway around that bend to lose position, remained between horses leaving that bend and into the lane, missed.” The lone drawback is that June 17 race was visually unimpressive as six horses were separated by 3-¼ lengths. Almost Reality (#4) has finished second or third in six of thirteen starts and returns with consecutive B works per National Turf’s Andy Harrington and can pick up the pieces for a share.
The Play:
WIN bet on (9) QUEENOFHERCASTLE at 7-1 or better.
Main Exacta box key: 9 / 4, 6
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