Saturday July 16, 2016.
Race 5: Wickerr Stakes, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and up
The anticipated early pace can play an important role for those that will be coming from off the early pace. According to TimeformUS pace projector, a fast early pace is anticipated with Lieutenant Colonel (#3) going straight to the lead chased or pressed by Forever Juanito (#5). Morning line favorite Vyjack should fall into a perfect spot tracking that fast pace in third with horses such as Toowindytohaulroux (#1) and Power Ped (#2) will be charging from off the pace late.
Toowindytohaulroux (#1) will stretch out from the hillside turf course to one mile on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course and that should pose no issue for this son of Harlan’s Holiday. His only win over this turf course happen over this distance back in August 15, 2015 where he sprung the 6-1 upset. The anticipated fast pace should benefit this Phil D’Amato trainee as he took advantage of a similar race set up when he won the Gr. 3 Daytona Handicap on December 26 at Santa Anita. In that race he settled outside a rival and trailed early behind a torrid early pace set by Rocket Heat. He gradually moved up down the hill three wide and came six wide into the main turf course and rallied to win a blanket finish to win by a neck in a race where the fast early pace set up very well for the closers as the winner and second-place finisher rallied from tenth and eighth early. A winner of four of sixteen starts on turf, he was not seen on the racetrack for one hundred and sixty-two days when he returned in the Siren Lure Stakes on June 5 at Santa Anita and ran into his favored stablemate, Hunt, who won his fourth start from five races down the hillside turf course. In that race he chase the loose leader Act between rivals early and settled on the rail down the hill after a half mile in 43.74 seconds, angled three wide into the stretch, and chased the favored winner finishing 2-¼ lengths in front of the rest of the field earning a 96 Beyer Speed Figure that is the second highest last race speed figure on turf in this field. He will now stretch out to a route on turf in his second start off the layoff and according to DRF Del Mar Guide this has been a winning move from the D’Amato barn here at Del Mar. In the past five years he is 27-7-4-2 (26%) with his starters stretching out from a sprint to a route here at Del Mar and that sample includes Lil Bit of Fun (July 23, 2014, $20.80-1), Know Plans (November 15, 2015, $11.00-1), and Midnight Storm (August 10, 2014, $9.70-1). Regular rider Thiago Pereira will position this five-year old along the rail in midpack behind the anticipated fast early pace and can spring the upset at 10-1 on the morning line to start the Pick 6.
In my exotics I will also use Vyjack (#6). This half brother to Tepin won his first start on turf on April 21 in a blanket finish where the entire eight horse field was separated by only 2-¼ lengths where the eighth-place finisher, Dimension, returned to win his next two starts including the Gr. 2 King Edward Stakes. He rallied from second to last to finish second in the Gr. 3 Red Bank on June 5. Trainer Phil D’Amato is 27-7-4-4 (26%) with new acquisitions routing on the turf and gets Flavien Prat in the irons. Little Curlin (#4) was positioned close to a very slow early pace when he stretched out to 1-⅛ miles on turf on June 16, hung in tough to mid-stretch, and out finished to the wire. With his stablemate Lieutenant Colonel going to the front, jockey Martin Pedroza can settle and make that patent late run as he did when he won his first start on turf at 47-1 on March 20 at Santa Anita.
The Play:
WIN bet on (1) Toowindytohaulroux at 6-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 1-6. Small reverse.
Small Exacta: 1-4. No reverse.
Race 7: Allowance N1X, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three-year old
From post position two look for It’s The Ice (#2) to go straight for the early lead but can find company early as Horse Greedy (#8) stretching out after disputing the early lead at 5-½ furlongs in his last start can ensure a fast pace to set this race up for horses coming from just off the pace or charging from well back. The other Phil D’Amato trainee Lauren’s Ladd (#10) should fall into a perfect trip behind leaders with Bombard (#5) and I’malreadythere (#11). Lucky Bryan (#12) and All the Marbles (#3) will be sitting behind this midpack hoping the fast pace that TimeformUS suggest materializes for their late kick.
All The Marbles (#3) is a son of Lonhro out of the Gr. 1 Del Mar Debutante winner Miss Houdini making this half brother to Papa Clem who won the Gr. 2 Arkansas Derby. The Marty Jones trainee was ignored in the wagering going off as the fourth longest shot on the board at 15-1 and he ran seventh beaten five-lengths behind Tristan’s Trilogy. However according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, this debut was nothing more than a “learning” experience. In that race he “Hopped at the start, stayed at the rear and outside of the main field, was asked for run after the dirt but did not produce one and was not asked for everything.” His connections clearly wanted to get this colt a race and that set him up to stretch to two turns on May 13 where he won by a nose where according to the trouble comment in the Daily Racing Form he was “Rank, steadied early & ¾.” However the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes writer paid a more vivid picture of his actual running line and it was impressive than his nose margin of victory. In his second career start he “broke in and a bit slowly at the break, was very rank, pulled hard and steadied then checked badly and came out around the first turn, steadied again around the opening bens, moved up to prompt the pace three-deep passing the half-mile pole, stalked again leaving the backstretch, re-bid around the far turn, bumped the runner-up into the lane, put his head in front while getting in passing midstretch, lost the lead deep stretch to the wire, battled back, won the tight photo.” The negative from this race was visually it was unimpressive as the first seven finishers were separated by 3-¼ lengths at the wire and the second thru eighth-place finishers all came back to lose their next start with only the fourth-place finisher, Pappou, managing a third-place finish. The positives from this victory are he overcame a very wide journey covering 5 feet and 30 feet more than the second and third-place finisher according to Trackus and his ability to overcome so much in only his second start suggest he has talent. He will make his first start in sixty-four days but this homebred has trained with plenty of vigor for his first start versus winners according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington with three consecutive B workouts including a five furlong move in 1:00 ⅗ that Andy stated he “Ran by an Agarie trainee midway finishing with purpose in 35.4, 100.0. Moving forward on the learning curve.” Drawn well in post position three with anticipated fast pace set by It’s The Ice and Horse Greedy as targets for him to run down in the stretch. He has plenty of blue sky in front him making his third career start and should be overlooked at juicy 6-1 morning line.
In my exotics I will use the morning line favorite It’s the Ice (#2) who will make his first start off a one hundred twenty-five day layoff but should be on the lead for trainer Phil D’Amato who excels with his turf trainees specifically here at Del Mar the past five years. In addition he enters this race with B move on July 3 where he worked in company with Race 10 maiden winner on opening day Alaskan Son per National Turf’s Andy Harrington assistant at Los Alamitos. Lauren’s Ladd (#10) could fall into a perfect stalking trip if It’s the Ice and Horse Greedy engage in a speed duel and this City Zip colt will be the first to attack. He defeated a “key” race field when he broke his maiden down the hillside turf course on May 14 and then failed to kick on through the last eighth of a mile after a perfect ground saving trip in the Rainbow Stakes on June 18 at Santa Anita. The biggest issue with him as well as our fourth preference, Lucky Bryan (#12) is both exit the Rainbow Stakes where the first nine horses were separated by 4-¼ lengths and it has proven to be a negative race five horses have returned to lose their next start with the best finish being Prince of Arabia running a distant third in Gr. 3 Affirmed beaten nine lengths.
The Play:
WIN bet on (3) ALL THE MARBLES at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 3-2. Small reverse.
Smaller Exactas: 3-10, 3-12. No reverse.
Race 9: Gr. 2 Yellow Ribbon, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Fillies and mares
On paper there is not a confirmed front runner that can make the probable pace scenario in flux. According to the TimeformUS pace projector this race will favor horses on or near the lead with Her Emmynency (#3) going to the early lead but will be chased or pressed by She’s Not Here (#8). Horses that will sit in behind this early pace will be Prize Exhibit (#4) and Finest City (#6). I expect horses such as Nancy From Nairobi (#2), Majestic Heat (#5), and Queen of the Sand (#7) to be charging from midpack or well off the early pace to make it an exciting finish to the wire. I look for horses that will be running close to the early pace as my primary focus.
Prize Exhibit (#4) has finished in the money in three of four starts on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course and her only off the board finish happen in the November 29 Gr. 1 Matriarch where she was carried extremely wide into the stretch by the lugging out She’s Not Here and did well finish only 3-½ lengths behind the 65-1 upset winner Stormy Lucy. The daughter of Showcasing enters this event with consecutive off the board efforts where she finished twelfth beaten nine-lengths in the Gr. 2 Royal Heroine where today’s morning line favorite Nancy from Nairobi defeated her and managed to split the field beaten 5-½ lengths behind Celestine in the Gr. 1 Just A Game. She has had excuses in both defeats and she is my top preference based on her better than looked twelfth place finish on May 5 where she made my Horses to Watch list. The James Cassidy trainee chased three horse speed duel among Smoove It, La Berma, and Living the Life in fourth early saving ground along the rail through a half mile in a quick 47.49 seconds. She had run waiting off horses heels on the far turn and had to wait for room into the stretch but it never developed, steadied sharply as tired horses Smoove It and Living the Life back up to her heels in the stretch, and was wrapped up in the stretch in a much better than looked effort that is not described in the “Blocked rail ¼-⅛,” found in the trouble comment. This effort prompted her connections to ambitiously place her in the Gr. 1 Just a Game at Belmont Park on June 11 where she was ran a respectable sixth splitting the field outrunning her 57-1 odds. In that race she raced in the rear of the field in between rivals behind her stablemate La Berma who set a quick 23.36 opening quarter mile and 46.13 second half mile. She continued racing in traffic between rivals on the turn and found herself behind horses blocked into the stretch, found clear run approaching mid-stretch when she was taken six wide, and ran decently to pass tired rivals to finish sixth defeating half the field in the process earning the turf’s co-highest last race 96 Beyer Speed Figure in the field. The Just A Game earned outstanding 107 Beyer Speed Figure which is the tied for the fourth fastest turf route this year and the validity of that figure was confirmed. The fifth-place finisher Faufiler returned to win the Gr. 3 Modesty Handicap and the tenth-place finisher returned to win the Gr. 2 Dance Smartly. Jockey Santiago Gonzalez reunites with this filly who was aboard this fillies last three victories and should get a great trip just behind the early pace between Her Emmynency and She’s Not Here and will just need a clear trip where she can upset at juicy morning line of 12-1.
In my exotics I will focus my attention on She’s Not Here (#8) is a selection not based on her sixth place finish in the Gr. 3 Arlington Matron but her seventh and sixth-place efforts behind Tepin in the Gr. 1 Jenny Wiley and Gr. 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile. She was moved prematurely in the Jenny Wiley and set an enervating pace uncontested on the lead and was collared by the favored winner and tired in a race that produced four next time out winners. In the latter event she failed to muster a run in another productive race that produced three next time out winners. She returns to Del Mar where her two victories at this 1-1/16 distance happen over this Jimmy Durante turf course. Trainer Victoria Oliver is 15-5-0-1 (33%) with her turf routers here at Del Mar the past five years and she is done well with her turf routers in stakes races. Personal Diary (August 16, 2014, $9.10-1), She’s Not Here (September 6, 2015, $6.40-1), and Honey Lake (August 21, 2015, $7.90-1) all won stakes races going long on the turf and as you can see none were favored. Finest City (#6) finished third in the Gr. 1 Vanity Mile behind last year’s Eclipse Award for older filly and mares Beholder and Eclipse Award for three-year old filly Stellar Wind. Moreover that Vanity has gone on to be a very productive race as the fourth-and-fifth place finishers returned to win the Spring Fever and Southern Truce Stakes respectively. She is bred to love the turf being a daughter of City Zip out of the dam Be Envied who won two of eleven starts routing on the turf. She enters this race with a stellar half mile spin in 46.1 on July 9 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “turned in a super speedy spin in 22.3, 45.3 never asked for run in this happy solo move. Retains all her speed.” In a race that TimeformUS suggest will favor horses on or near the early lead, I expect Finest City to use her early speed to take this field straight to the front. Nancy from Nairobi (#2) is morning line favorite that drops in class after running sixth in the Gr. 1 Gamely behind pace pressing winner Illuminant. She took full advantage of a pace meltdown when she won the Gr. 2 Royal Heroine on May 5 in a race where her other rivals suffered trouble trips.
The Play:
WIN bet on (4) PRIZE EXHIBIT to WIN at 7-1 or better.
Exacta box key: 4 with 2, 6, 8.
Trifecta part-wheel: 4 with 2, 6, 8 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 = $30 for a $2 Wager
Trifecta part-wheel: 2, 6, 8 with 4 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 = $15 for a $1 Wager
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