Friday July 15, 2016 - OPENING DAY OF DEL MAR!
Race 7: Allowance N1X/Optional Claiming $40,000, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and up
One cannot make an intelligent decision on this race without dissecting the likely pace scenario of this race. Westfest (#7) and J Serino (#5) both exit victories around two turns at Santa Anita but the former is quicker and should find himself on the lead. However horses such as Forest Blue (#3), Victory Call (#6), and Karma King (#8) are all stretching out from a sprint to a route and will be forwardly placed early. Our preference will be a horse that can settle just off the early flight of leaders and pounce.
Missing Groom (#4) will get the top preference as this California-bred Colonel John gelding has form over a fast Del Mar main track where he won his only start of 2015 over this identical surface and distance almost a year ago on July 24, 2015 where he parlayed a perfect stalk and pounce trip under Flavien Prat to win by 1-¾ lengths. The form of that victory was validated as the second-and-fourth place finishers came back to win earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 89 and 77 respectively in their next start. He was not seen for the rest of 2015 and made his return to the races 316 days later on June 4 at Santa Anita and was asked to go a 1-⅛ miles with only seven workouts all Los Alamitos. When you consider the depth of his layoff and running at 1-⅛ for the first time he ran very well to finish seventh beaten eight lengths. He showed good early speed only to be pressed hard by his pace rival Carlsbad Mountain through quick fractions of 22.83 and 46.87 seconds for a half mile. He shook free of Carlsbad Mountain midway on the far turn to lead but was immediately hooked by the eventual winner Ike Walker past the quarter pole, fought gamely to the eighth pole, and gave way. This was a super effort when you consider he raced inside through fast pace speed duel on a main track that strongly favored speed on the outside paths that the winner rode to victory while Missing Groom was hurt by the bias. He will now shorten up to his preferred one-mile distance (8/2-4-1) and has bounced out of his comeback with three blistering workouts at Los Alamitos including a 59.4 move on July 3 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant stated this “Free running type was moving fast to the top, coaxed home the last 1/4 in 24.4, finished in 59.4. Doing well since last.” He does not need the lead to win but can settle just off the pace and pounce as he did in his last win over this Del Mar main track. Juicy 8-1 on the morning line to start the opening day Late Pick 4.
Underneath in our exotics we will use Storm Comin Thru (#1) who also exits the same race as our top choice and can improve in his second race off the bench but appears shy of visiting the Winner’s Circle with nine seconds or thirds from twenty-three starts. Forest Blue (#3) who stretches out following a pair of in the money efforts in consecutive highly rated sprints to Drefong and Who’s Out in his last two starts. Victory Call (#6) will stretch out after two sprints and split the field on June 25 in the same highly rated Allowance N1X that Forest Blue exits.
The Play:
WIN bet on (4) MISSING GROOM at 6-1 or better.
Exacta box key: 4 over 1, 3, 6.
Pick 3: 1, 3, 4, 6 / 7 / 4, 8 = 4 x 1 x 2 x $2 = $16
Race 8: Oceanside Stakes, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds
The probable pace scenario of the traditional opening day feature appears straightforward on paper. Mr. Roary (#13) who has been on the lead at the first pace call in his last three turf routes will go straight for the lead but can find company for the early lead. Imperious One (#3) who disputed the lead and held second behind Path of David in last year’s Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita and fell on an uncontested lead on January 24 in a field that had no early speed. The Oceanside Stakes will have an honest early pace to set up those stalking or coming from the rear of the field.
My stand in this race is I am throwing out all the horses that exit the June 18 Rainbow Stakes at Santa Anita. Nine of the eleven entrants were separated by 4-¼ lengths in a visually unimpressive race and therefore I will not be using Arcatrue (#8), Mr. Roary, and Liam the Charmer (#14) on any of my suggested wagers. I am looking for a new face to win this race and one who can settle just off those early leaders and pounce.
Ebadan (#7) will take a hidden drop in class because he has faced three and up company in his last two starts and now will face only straight three-year olds. The Holy Roman Emperor bay made his United States debut as a new gelding on May 19 going 6-½ furlongs down the hillside turf course and unleashed a monster late kick to spring the 12-1 upset. In that race he trailed far back behind a three-horse speed battle early among Love My Bud, City of Vengeance, and Seventh Sense as those three battled through fractions of 21.82 and 44.60 seconds for a half mile. He was angled extremely wide while far back passing the dirt crossing and into the main turf course and closed widest of all to get up at the wire to win by a nose. Although this was not a terrific field as four horses behind Ebadan came back to lose their next start and six horses were separated by 2-½ lengths, this Neil Drysdale trainee should be given extra credit for being a three-year old that defeated older. He stretched out to two turns stepping up to face Allowance N2X on June 12 and ran a respectable third in a highly rated turf route won by Ohio (99 Beyer) who is a contender in Saturday’s Wickerr Stakes. He stalked the dueling leaders Professor Berns and Hay Dude in a comfortable spot on the rail in fourth early. He continued on the rail as the winner had a clear three wide sailing on the turn and into the stretch, angled out into the stretch, and ran evenly to the wire while out finished by Ohio and second-place finishers Itsinthepost. That third-place finisher earned him the top last race Beyer Speed Figure of 93 in this field and now meets an easier field versus the older Allowance N2X he faced last time out. He has bounced back with three workouts over the Santa Anita training track including a B workout on July 1 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated he displayed a “Nice late kick with Little Scotty in 39.2, 115.1. Going very well right now.” He has tactical speed to get an excellent trip behind the early leaders Mr. Roary and Imperious One and should be hint of a price with all the attention focused around Moonlight Drive and Dressed in Hermes as my BEST BET on the card.
Underneath in my exotics I will be using Dressed in Hermes (#9) who drops in class after facing two very strong fields in the Gr. 2 American Turf on Kentucky Derby day (produced three next time out winners) and Gr. 3 Pennine Ridge where the runner-up, Highland Sky, came back to finish second beaten a neck in the Gr. 1 Belmont Derby. Monster Bea (#12) who ran into a slow pace won by a pace pressing winner Keystoneforvictory on May 15 and the form of that race was flattered when the latter returned to win Forty Niner Stakes by 3-¼ lengths earning 85 Beyer Speed Figure. He exits a perfect trip ground saving stalk and pounce trip on June 10 and makes his first race for Peter Miller. On smaller tickets I will be using Moonlight Drive (#2) who makes his first start off a 151 day layoff. In the past five years, trainer Bob Baffert is 3-0-0-1 with turf routers returning off a 100 to 175 day layoff according to DRF Formulator.
The Play:
WIN bet on (7) EBADAN to WIN
Main Exacta: 7-9, 7-12. Small reverse.
Smaller Exacta: 7-2. No reverse.
Race 9: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and upward
This one-mile contest on the main track appears to have a straightforward pace scenario that could fall in the favor or horses running on or near the early lead. Got Even (#4) chased a very fast early pace for a half mile on May 6 and breaking from post position four with hustling rider Edwin Maldonado in the irons will go straight to the front but will be tracked or pressed by Chief of Staff (#10) early.
Despite trainer Bob Baffert ending the Santa Anita meet on a roll, I will be taking a stand against morning line favorite Dr. Door. The Lookin at Lucky colt will make his first start off a 244 day layoff trying two turns for the first time. According to DRF Formulator, that move has been a losing move for bettors. In the past five years he has had four starters return off layoffs of more than 180 days making their first route start with one winner. He has had three losses at $1.80-1, $4.00-1, and $3.90-1. I do not believe in taking a short price on a horse doing something new for the first time and despite the glowing reviews from National Turf’s Andy Harrington (pair of B works), I will let him beat me.
Got Even (#4) has always been known as a bridesmaid with nineteen combined seconds or thirds from forty-six career starts but this Stephen Got Even gelding has shown an affinity for Del Mar even though he does not win. He was second beaten a combined 1-¼ lengths in his previous two starts routing over this Del Mar main track and enters this race off a pair of off the board efforts. The seven-year old gelding finished sixth and last on January 22 in his final start for previous trainer Peter Miller and finished fifth beaten 4-¾ lengths in his first start off the Bill Spawr claim on May 6 at Santa Anita. He has had excuses in each defeat and with only one pace rival to deal with in this event I can expect Got Even to emerge victorious in his second start off the claim. He was sent off as the 4-1 third choice on January 22 but this front runner lost all chance to show his early speed at the start. He stumbled badly at the start to lose all chance, was carried extremely wide into the first turn and down the backstretch to chase the early pace, dropped back, and was eased through the stretch to finish last in a non-conclusive performance. He was claimed for $50,000 from that debacle by trainer Bill Spawr who freshen him up and returned from a one hundred and five day layoff on May 6 where a torrid early pace where he chased the speedy St. Joe Bay compromised his chances. Breaking from the rail, he established a pressured early pace through very quick fractions of 22.99 and 45.99 seconds for a half mile, dropped back to stalk that rival on the turn, continued chasing that rival all the way to mid-stretch, and tired in a race where the fast pace set up perfectly for the winner Big Tire who rallied from sixth and last to win by 1-¼ lengths. Although that race returned to be a sub-par event with the first four finishers returning to lose their next start, Got Even chased a blistering pace per the Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+4, +6). He comes back from a seventy-day layoff with six consecutive workouts including a better than looked six furlong move in 1:14.4 on July 9 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Old class sort turned in an improved spin going off slowly in 14.2, 27.0, 50.2 (23.2 mid 1/4), 115.1. Seems to be feeling good about himself these days,” and trainer Bill Spawr does SUPERB work with his dirt routers making their second start off the claim. According to DRF Formulator, Spawr is 5-3-0-0 (60%) in the past five years with dirt routers making their second start off the claim and his last two winners did not go favored: A Colt Following (January 2, 2016, $6.80-1) and Broadway Nika (March 25, 2016, $14.10-1). The presence of Edwin Maldonado suggest he will be on the lead and his only pace rival, Chief of Staff, tired badly on June 24 after pressing a very slow early pace per Moss Pace Figures for a half mile (-6, -5). I expect Got Even to go straight to the front and prove a very tough rival to run down at a juicy 6-1 on the morning line for a barn that does excellent work with trainees making their second start off the claim.
In my exotic wagers I will be using Souper Knight (#8) as my second preference. The Midnight Lute gelding defeated only two horses to the wire finishing fourth in a seven furlong $50,000 claiming event on June 18 but that sprint returned to be a productive “key” race. The winner Heir of Storm returned to finish second behind gate to wire comeback winner Masochistic on July 8 earning 94 Beyer Speed Figure and third-place finisher came back to win Allowance N2X with a career best 99 Beyer Speed Figure. Moreover, he will make his first start off the claim for Peter Miller on dirt. According to the Del Mar Guide, trainer Peter Miller has won at a gaudy 50% (12-6-0-0) the past five years with his starters making their first start off the claim on the Del Mar main track. Flavian Prat takes the call. Also I will use Westbrook (#7) who has managed to split the field in his last two sprints but has run evenly through the stretch to indicate he will handle the stretch out to one-mile and he exits highly rated Allowance N1X won by Who’s Out (97 Beyer) on June 25 at Santa Anita.
The Play:
WIN bet on (4) GOT EVEN at 6-1 or better.
WIN bet on (8) SOUPER KNIGHT at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 4-8. Small reverse.
Small Exacta: 4-7. Smaller reverse.
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