Taman Guard Looks to go Gate to Wire in Real Deal Good Stakes

Race 7: Real Deal Good Stakes, 7 Furlongs, Three-year olds

The two horses that are expected show are early speed are the two horses that TimeformUS expected to be on the lead. From the outside post position, Taman Guard will go straight for the front but will be pressed or chased by Tribal Fighter in the first quarter of a mile. Horses that will be in the first flight behind the early pace are Smokey Image and Tough But Nice. Morning line favorite Mrazek will be in mid-pack hoping that the early pace collapses as it did in his victory last time out in the Thor’s Echo on July 4 at Santa Anita.

Morning line Mrazek was strong play for me when he won as the favorite on July 4 dropping from a sneaky good effort in the Gr. 2 Woody Stephens on Belmont Stakes day into Thor’s Echo Stakes versus California-bred company. He encountered a perfect trip in that race sitting behind a four-horse speed duel for the first half mile, swung outside the battling leaders into the stretch to take over the lead, drifted in past the final furlong, and won handily. The pace battle collapsed through the stretch as the first two finishers rallied from 5th and 6th and he only earned top last race 89 Beyer Speed Figure and there are two horses in this field that have run just as fast as Mrazek and will be a better price.

The speed of this field and drawn comfortably outside of the early speed, Taman Guard (#10) shoud find comfortable trip on the lead with only our second preference, Tribal Fighter, chasing him early. The Midnight Lute gelding has won two of three starts by a combined 7-¼ lengths with his lone defeat happen in his second career start on May 30 at Santa Anita where he encountered an early pace that was much too fast for this Jerry Hollendorfer trainee to keep up with. In that race, he broke running from post position two but found another one dimensional speed rival in Follini as those two established a pressured pace through insane fractions of 21.26 and 43.77 seconds. He dropped back in the stretch and appeared finished but re-rallied past his tired pace rival Follini to be third in a race where the winner Signature Cat enjoyed a perfect trip in third behind this speed duel. The pace was taxing as it earned off the chart Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+11, +10) and with a more relaxed pace scenario this bay gelding would have remained undefeated. He got that scenario when he came back June 25 and won by a comfortable 2-¾ lengths as the 8-5 post time favorite. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “broke with his head in the air, in tight early,” but recovered to set the pace outside of longshot pace rival Senator Robert through a moderate opening quarter in 21.84 seconds, shook free of that rival and opened up a length and half lead midway on the far turn, and won under “steady handling” through the wire earning a 88 Beyer Speed Figure which is the second highest last race speed figure by only one point to favorite Mrazek. The Moss Pace Figures from this victory indicate he was able to distribute his energy better through moderate fractions for the first half mile (-2, -1). Jockey Alex Solis who was out of town on June 25 returns in the irons and the stretch out to seven furlongs should suit him perfectly as he will not have to establish or press a pace scenario that he was forced to press on May 30 in his lone defeat in three career starts. He enters this race with four workouts capped off by a razor sharp half mile spin in 47.1 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B- stating “Light hold off the rail a bit in 23.2, 47.1. Holds speed; think Solis was up.” This California-bred is the one they all must attempt to run down and at 6-1 on the morning line he is generous alternative to the favorite.

In my exotics I will use my second preference Tribal Fighter (#5) who enters this race off consecutive victories and returned from a four month layoff on July 10 and won a five furlong California bred Allowance N1X in a race designed strictly as a tuneup for this stakes event. The Tribal Rule gelding bobbled at the start to be away slowly but recovered quickly to establish a pressured early pace with the very quick Follini and as those two dueled through moderate fractions, shook free of that rival into the stretch, opened up a commanding lead past mid-stretch, and won clear despite drifting out to the wire to win by 6-¼ lengths earning a respectable 85 Beyer Speed Figure. The Richard Baltas trainee does have a tendency to break slowly in his three starts so far but he has overcome his sluggish starts to emerge victorious including his maiden victory on March 13 where he defeated “key” race field. He showed no effects of regression returning to work a half mile in 48.3 on July 21 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “Smart late rush while not asked late in 25.0, 48.3 galloping out well in 101.2. Razor sharp.” With regular rider Rafael Bejarano in the irons he should have Taman Guard as his main rival he will have to chase and attempt to run him down through the stretch. Mrazek (#7) ran an excellent second behind gate to wire winner I Will Score over this same seven furlong distance in the Gr. 3 Laz Barrera on May 14 and ran a strong race in the Gr. 2 Woody Stephens on Belmont Stakes day making in a middle move while very wide into the teeth of a very hot early pace, loomed up into the top of the stretch, and rightfully gave way. He encountered ideal conditions on July 4 and will not find the same circumstances today. He will be used underneath only.

The Play:

WIN bet on (10) TAMAN GUARD at 7-2 or better.

WIN bet on (5) TRIBAL FIGHTER at 4-1 or better.

Main Exacta Box: 5, 10

Small Exactas: 5-7, 10-7. No reverse.