Lucky Folie Returns to her Favorite Track in CERF Stakes

Race 7: C.E.R.F Stakes, 6 Furlongs, Fillies and mares

The pace scenario on paper appears straightforward as TimeformUS pace projector sees it the same way I envision. From the rail, Enchanting Lady (#1) will go for the early lead but will be pressed by Shh She’s Not Here (#6) who has won all four starts on the lead after the first pace call. Pretty N Cool (#2) will be tracking this early duel in third with Lucky Folie (#5) positioned behind this early pace battle in fourth early. Horses such as Everqueen (#3) and Dr. Fager’s Girl (#4) will be out sprinted early lead and hope for a pace meltdown.

Despite coming into this race off a four race win streak, there are factors on why I will take a stand against the morning line favorite Shh She’s Not Here. Her biggest victory came in the Desert Stormer Stakes on June 26 where she was aided by the main track. She sped to an uncontested early lead without a challenge from the post time favorite Sensitively, turned away that bid when challenged at mid-stretch, and was clear earning career best 101 Beyer Speed Figure. My issue with that victory was she sped to the early lead along the rail over a main track that strongly favored inside-speed and second was refused to change leads to the wire. Despite the fast fractions, the early pace was moderate per Moss Pace Figures (+1, -1) and she will face a real challenge for the lead with our second preference Enchanting Lady vying for the lead. I hope those two battle for the early lead to set up for our longshot who will be coming from just off the pace.

Lucky Folie (#5) returns to her favorite main track of Del Mar where she has yet to taste defeat in two starts including a victory in the seven furlong Desi Arnaz Stakes last fall where she defeated subsequent Gr. 1 Los Alamitos Starlet winner Street Fancy in the process. The Richard Mandella trainee did not return to the races for the first five months of this year and she made her three-year old debut in the Angel Flight Stakes at seven furlongs on May 15 at Santa Anita where according to her work pattern coming into that race she was going to be “short” horse. She had recorded only eight works to prepare for her first start off more than six month layoff and she ran a like a short horse finishing fifth beaten 8-½ lengths behind the pace pressing winner Bellamentary. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “broke a bit slowly and was bothered soon after, moved up to stalk the pace within range, split horses three-deep into the stretch, and did not go on.” The strength of that race was confirmed when the winner and third-place finishers returned to finish second and third behind Songbird in the Gr. 2 Summertime Oaks each earning improved 88 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. She enters this stakes event with six works and has really caught National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s attention especially in her five furlong move in 59.1 on July 10 that Andy gave a B- but stated “ Speedy sort was relaxed in this spin, moving up and looking best over Juno going the last 4f in 47.2. Appeared relaxed.” The homebred filly is learning to relax and she will rate behind this expected speed battle between Enchanting Lady and Shh She’s Not Here and get first jump if the early pace battle takes its toll on the leaders. She is not fast enough per her Beyer Speed Figures, but the belief is she will improve in her second start off the long layoff and at a juicy 10-1 on the morning line I will find out.

In my exotics I will recommend using just two horses and both are trained by Bob Baffert. Enchanting Lady (#1) made my horses to watch list after finishing fifth in the Gr. 1 Madison at Keeneland on April 9. Going seven furlongs, the daughter of Tale of the Cat battled three wide in a four horse speed battle through very fast fractions per Moss Pace Figures (+17, +11), put away her three pace rivals (weaken to 9th, 10th, and 11th), stayed gamely to mid-stretch, and weaken to finish fifth. Although the Madison returned to be a non-productive race with nine rivals returning to lose their next start with only three of them finishing third, this should not take away the effort by Enchanting Lady. She was soundly bumped at the start of the Gr. 1 Humana Distaff on Kentucky Derby day and forced to chase the loose leader Stonetastic from the rail and she is not comfortable rating. In the Gr. 3 Winning Colors she was hustled from the gate to make the lead but set a fast pace per Moss Pace Figures (+5, +5) and weaken in final eighth of a mile. She enters this race with three works including a sharp B work on July 14 here at Del Mar with stablemate and Haskell bound American Freedom per National Turf’s Andy Harrington. The speed of the speed. Pretty N Cool (#2) returns from a two hundred day layoff for trainer Bob Baffert who excels with horses returning from 180 to 200 day layoff in a dirt sprint. According to DRF Formulator he wins at a gaudy 57% (7-4-0-0) with that profile and she broke her maiden in her debut to indicate she runs well fresh. She has trained like she is fit and ready per National Turf’s Andy Harrington with B and B+ in her last two works to prepare.

The Play: I look to beat Shh She’s Not Here from finishing either first or second and my play will be structured getting our top choice Lucky Folie to either win or come in second in my exacta plays leaking Enchanting Lady and Pretty N Cool.

WIN bet on (5) LUCKY FOLIE at 6-1 or better.

Exacta Box: 5-1

Exacta Box: 5-2

Play those Exacta boxes for same unit wager.

Race 8: Claiming $32,000 - $28,000 N1Y, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year olds and up

TimeformUS pace projector sees this race not favor any specific running style. Prime Issue (#4) will go straight to the early lead and will be tracked Horizontalyspeakin (#6). Horses such as Terry’s Tom Cat (#2) and Sky Preacher (#8) will be stalking the loose leader in the first flight waiting to pounce once the leader tires. Morning line favorite Trifecta (#3) will be waiting in the wings to pounce from midpack while Buymeabond (#5) and Madikwe (#7) will be charging from far back off the early pace.

With Prime Issue a confirmed pacesetter I believe the fractions will be honest for those coming from just off the early pace and I expect Terry’s Tom Cat (#2) to spring the mild upset making a hidden but all important class drop from three consecutive “open” claiming turf routes into a claiming event restricted to those that have not won a race in 2016. The Bluegrass Cat gelding has been the victim of a lack of early speed in his last two starts. He was overmatched when he defeated only two rivals in a field thirteen in the Gr. 3 San Francisco Mile on April 30 at Golden Gate. He dropped in class and was put up for the $62,500 optional claiming price on May 29 but he had no chance in a race where the winner, Anythingscookin and second place finisher Atomic Rule ran first and second at each call. The Tim McCanna trainee was positioned three wide around the first turn and settled in midpack racing between rivals behind a glacial half mile in 48.73 seconds set by the gate to wire Anythingscookin. He urged to move forward on the far turn racing in the two path and angled four wide into the stretch and ran evenly to the wire to be out kicked for third by the closer Willing to Travel. The chestnut gelding shipped to Santa Anita where he dropped in class to face open $50,000 claimers on the turf and he once again was the victim of early speed as the winner Tribal Tribute and second place finisher Batti Man ran second and first at each call. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “settled off the pace, one beat inside down the backside, cut the corner while well back into the lane, no rally.” He returns to the Del Mar turf course where he sprung $23.20 upset last summer and is reunited with Mario Gutierrez who was aboard for that win. He returns to Del Mar with three works over the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate capped off by a razor sharp six-furlong best of thirteen move on July 10 in 1:13 ⅗ where the next fastest work that morning 1:15 flat. Per TimeformUS pace projector he should find an honest pace for the first time in two starts when Prime Issue goes straight for the early lead and he will be saving ground behind this leader waiting to pounce hoping to emulate his stalk and pounce trip from last year.

In my exotics I will suggest two horses. Buymeabond (#5) who ran very well in his previous two starts at this 1-⅛ distance. He closed from last behind a very fast early pace to finish fourth in a restricted starter handicap on Super Bowl Sunday in a race restricted to those that raced for a claiming price of $25,000 in 2015-2016. In his next start on March 19 at this distance he once again rallied from the rear of the eleven horse field to be a fast finishing fourth beaten three-lengths behind gate to wire winner Cardiac was allowed to dictate a very slow early pace for half mile 49.30 seconds. The Langfuhr gelding returned from eighty-five day layoff on June 12 and rallied to finish fourth while out kicked for third behind the five-length gate to wire winner Orchestral in a race where the second-place finisher Hidden Zensation chased the winner from second at each call.  He returns to the Jimmy Durante Turf course where he was 3-1-2-0 last year and he makes the same hidden class drop as the top choice Terry’s Tom Cat into this restricted claiming event. Trifecta (#3) is the morning line favorite whose previous three races will be good enough to win as they equal the Beyer Speed Figure par (88) for this class level. He closed from mid-pack behind a very slow pace (48.41) on May 7 to finish third in a race where the first-and-third place finishers came back to win. He ran no chance rallying from third behind the uncontested gate to wire winner Batti Man who was allowed to walk on the lead through half mile in 48.30 seconds. Trainer Mike Puype is a superb 28% (18-5-0-2) with his starters making their first start off the claim here at Del Mar including two of those victories over the Jimmy Durante turf course.

The Play: In the finale, I look to have Terry’s Tom Cat enjoy the class drop and get first jump on the closers such as Buymeabond and Trifecta. Once again the exacta will be the wager I will focus on with emphasis on our top choice winning this race and “saver” exactas in case he runs second.

WIN bet on (2) TERRY’S TOM CAT at 7-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 2-3, 2-5. Small reverse.