Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 5-½ Furlongs, Two-year old Fillies
There is not sufficient data to come up with the probable pace scenario but there is enough data on the horse’s making their second career start. She’s My First who earned the field’s top last race 55 Beyer Speed Figure on July 1 and the form of that race was not flattered when the second and fourth place finishers returned to finish fourth and third respectively in their next start earning 50 and 54 Beyer Speed Figures respectively. War Factor and Tiki Bar Logic exit the July 4 maiden race won by Dynamite Charge. That race earned a 67 Beyer Speed Figure and the form of that race was not flattered when fourth place finisher Auntjenn returned to break her maiden with a 63 Beyer Speed Figure. In short, the second time starters exit below average maiden special weight events at Santa Anita and I will look for a first time starter to spring mild upset.
Union Strike (#3) will make her career debut for trainer Shelbe Ruis for her parents owner team of Mick and Wendy Ruis and this team sent Midnight Pleasure (July 24, $20.90) to break his maiden in his career debut. This dark bay or brown filly was highly regarded at the OBS April 2016 two-year old in training sales worked an eighth of a mile in 10 seconds flat in her training preview and fetched $375,000 which was the third highest priced two-year old by the sire Union Rags from twenty-seven two-year olds at the sale. This price is more than ten times the sire’s stud fee of $35,000 and above the sire’s average sale price of $157,100. In his first crop, Union Rags has connected with 18% debut sire and she is well bred to win early based on her dam side. Her dam Classic Strike won once in twelve starts but she has produced four winners from as many starters including Handsome Mike who won one of four starts as a two-year old. Moreover she has produced two dirt sprint winners Handsome Dennis and Dottie’s Ray. This filly has caught the attention of jockey Mike Smith who has been aboard in the morning to work this filly and her training has impressed National Turf’s Andy Harrington. She recorded nine published workouts including July 14 move at Del Mar that he gave B stating “Mike Smith up; drew clear late from barnmate Sergio in 35.1, 100.2. Some speed evident from this sizey filly.” She concluded her preparation for her career debut with a workout on July 22 that official clockers missed but Andy Harrington caught giving it another B stating this “Was missed off the tab due to this morning's heavy fog but worked from the gate looking clearly best to 2 year old mate Sergio going by the stands in 24.0, 36.1 waiting all the way with Mike Smith up. Big filly has some run.” This well regarded filly is one of two of Shelbe Ruis most expensive two-year olds in her barn with the highest being $600,000 Medaglia D’Oro colt that was purchased at the Fasig Tipton two-year old in training sales. Union Strike is the second two-year old from this stable making their debut and this highly regarded filly is well bred to win early and has trained in strong fashion to attract the services of jockey Mike Smith to work her in the morning and ride her in the afternoon. With all the attention surrounding American Pharoah’s full sister American Cleopatra, Union Strike should go off at acceptable odds to bet her.
In my exotics I will use three horses underneath looking to beat American Cleopatra from finishing in the exacta. She’s My First (#1) finished in a three-horse photo in a below average maiden event on July 1 to lose by half length. The To Honor and Serve filly battled for the early lead through slow fractions between rivals, battled with the eventual second-place finisher to the final furlong, and was out kicked the final furlong. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has won at 29% (2-for-7) in the past year with two-year old making their second start in maiden special weight in a dirt sprint. Her July 15 and July 27 workouts over this Del Mar main track caught the attention of National Turf’s Andy Harrington to give it a B and should be fitter for her second start. Tiki Bar Logic (#7) had trained in respectable manner with a pair of B- workouts per National Turf’s Andy Harrington for her career debut on July 4 and she had a horrendous journey that one can draw a line. According to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “hopped a bit at the start to trail the first few jumps then passed a couple early on the backside, split horses passing the half-mile pole, steadied in tight off heels into the far turn to lose position and have one beat, far back in the stretch, passed horses the final furlong.” She came back with quick half-mile spin in 48 flat on July 24 that Andy Harrington gave a B- stating this “Speedy looker moved up on a worker near the line appearing happy over the surface. Think there is more early gas here.” Edwin Maldonado takes over. Jeweled (#8) is a pricey $190,000 by Sidney’s Candy which was second highest priced yearling out of fifty-three by the sire at the Keeneland September 2015 sales. Stellar B+ move on July 25 caught National Turf’s Andy Harrington.
The Play: I’m looking to beat American Cleopatra in her career debut as her wagering support will be based on her reputation being a full sister to American Pharoah. I’m looking for Shelbe Ruis to continue her winning ways with her two-year olds at what should be a hint of price.
WIN bet (3) UNION STRIKE at 7-2 or better.
Main Exactas: 3-1, 3-7, 3-8. Small reverse for each.
Race 4: Claiming $40,000 to $35,000, 1-Mile, Fillies and mares.
TimeformUS pace projector as well as looking over the probable pace scenario on paper sees this race developing at a fast pace. Little Bit Lovely will go for the early lead but will be pressed or chased by Shysheisnot into the first turn. Horses that will be in the first flight behind the early pace are Look Quickly, Saint Mamie, and Molly’s Honor. The anticipated fast early pace will benefit those rallying from mid-pack such as Dissension, Salsita, and opportunistic closer Anita Partner.
She is returning off a layoff of five hundred and two days layoff but Anita Partner (#5) looks to get her second turf victory in this $40,000 claiming event. She broke her maiden for a $50,000 claiming price at Tampa Bay Downs where she rallied behind a slow pace set by the uncontested leader Mummers Parade to blow by that rival to win by length and three-quarters covering her final quarter of a mile in the field’s best 25.24 seconds. In her next start versus winners she found herself in comfortable position chasing a contested pace battle between Etheridge and Danish Princess in third along the rail after the first half mile. She made her bid along the inside towards mid-stretch and was out finished to the wire in a race where the first three finishers rallied from ninth, sixth, and fifth early. The last time this daughter of Majestic Warrior was seen at the racetrack was on March 17, 2015 at Gulfstream Park where she rallied from the rear of the field to be second by a nose behind the gate to wire winner Gorgeous Dream where she had to rally behind a close to slow half mile in 47.96 seconds and Anita Partner did very well to overcome the race shape covering her final five-sixteenths of a mile in field’s best 30 seconds flat. This bay filly will be doing a lot of things for the first time but those items she will be doing have proven to be winning moves for the Jeff Mullins barn. This barn has won at 20% clip (20-4-1-3) with new acquisitions making their first start in a turf route and that sample includes Itsinthepost (May 8, $2.20-1) who won his first start for Jeff Mullins in a turf route by four and a quarter lengths. The Mullins barn is winless in eight starts with its trainees returning off a layoff of more than six months in a turf route but one of those rivals was Gabriel Charles who ran second three times off layoffs between two hundred days and five hundred and thirty-one days. Jockey Mike Smith takes over in the irons for the first time and when he and Mullins combined in a turf route they win at 27% (15-4-4-1) in the past five years. In addition this bay filly has blossomed in this barn recording twelve workouts including a spin over the Jimmy Durante turf course on July 24 that caught National Turf’s Andy Harrington. She worked five furlongs in 1:03 flat that Andy Harrington gave a B stating this “Very pretty filly was breezing over the turf course in 26.0, 103.1 galloping well around the clubhouse turn.” Despite the extended hiatus that Anita Partner comes into this turf route, she is well prepared for her return by a barn that excels with new acquisitions in a turf route and horses returning off extended layoffs. The presence of jockey Mike Smith in the irons and his success with the Mullins barn the past five years makes Anita Partner a strong selection to spring the minor upset.
In my exotics I will focus my attention on three horses. First is Salsita (#3) who is winless in two starts over the Jimmy Durante turf course as well as winless in five starts at today’s one-mile distance on turf. However she ran a lot better than her 5wd into str, no bid,” comment in her last start routing on the Del Mar turf course. In her previous start over this turf course, she broke from post position ten in a twelve horse field and “tracked four-deep early then outside down the backstretch, came out four-wide around the far turn, entered the stretch five-deep, moved closer near mid stretch, outrun the final furlong,” according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. Her wide journey is best reflected in Trakus where she covered 65, 50, and 43 feet more than the first three finishers. The winner of that race Illuminant went on to finish third to Tepin in the Gr. 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland and won the Gr. 1 Gamely at Santa Anita. She finished a close fourth beaten a length in a restricted starter handicap on June 5 where she had a very troubled trip behind the gate to wire winner Cindy’s Secret who came back to win Allowance N2X on July 16 with a career best 96 Beyer Speed Figure. Drawn well and will get pace for her late kick. Molly’s Honour (#8) drops to a career low for trainer Chris Hartman and she has faced some quality rivals in her last two starts at Churchill Downs. In her previous start routing on the turf, she passed tired rivals to finish sixth on May 13 when she was shuffled back and checked badly midway on the far turn behind a tiring pacesetter in a race where the winner Sweet Acclaim returned to run second beaten a nose in the Gr. 3 Mint Julep Handicap at Churchill Downs and won the Ellis Park Turf Stakes on July 9. In her last start she cut back to one turn sprinting on the turf on June 11 and rallied from last to finish fourth in a race where the first two finishers ran 1st and 2nd at each call and form of that race was flattered when the winner returned to win a Listed Stakes at Indiana Downs in her next start. She has worked twice here at Del Mar including a July 16 move that was missed by official clockers and Andy Harrington gave them a respectable B-. Top rider Santiago Gonzalez takes over in the irons. Dissension (#2) will benefit the most if the early pace develops to be fast as she rode an above average early pace to rally from next to last to finish second on March 11 at Santa Anita. In her previous start routing on the turf she closed from last to finish in a blanket photo finish to be third in a race where the first two finishers were 1st and 2nd at each call.
The Play: I will focus my attention on the exacta plays trying to catch our top choice Anita Partner to finish either first or second. I will recommend a WIN bet on our top choice at the acceptable odds but I will also suggest a WIN bet on Molly’s Honor who I anticipate will go off at or close to her 10-1 morning line and dropping to a career low after facing quality fields in Kentucky makes her a potential overlay possibility.
WIN bet on (5) ANITA PARTNER at 5-1 or better.
WIN bet on (8) MOLLY’S HONOR at 8-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-8. Small reverse for each.
Small Exacta: 5-2. No reverse.
Race 6: Allowance N1X, 5 Furlongs Turf, Fillies and mares
TimeformUS pace projector sees the early pace of this turf sprint not favoring a specific running style. The three horses it does see vying for the early lead are Seaside Glory, Cuyathy, and Miss Big Stuff. The horses that look to get first run on this contested battle for the lead are Candy Boss and Deltalina as both horses will be in that first flight and I expect Sturdy One, Snow Cloud, and Madam Mousse hope for a pace meltdown to set up their late kick.
One of the three speed horses will be my top choice and I have been waiting for Cuyathy (#7) to shorten up to this five furlong turf sprint because I strongly feel that this Congrats filly will enjoy this layout. It required seven starts for this filly to break through with her maiden victory and one can understand why she was dismissed as the longest shot on the tote board at 37-1 on May 27 in her first start on the turf racing down the hillside turf course and she nearly pulled off the major upset losing by one-length in a race where the first two finishers rallied from 5th and 6th after the first half mile. In that she clearly to set the pace while off the rail chased by Candy Boss and Amber Louise early. She was able to clear those two speed rivals and get over to the rail down the hill and appeared full of run as she opened up more than a two-length lead entering the main turf course and held on well to mid-stretch before she started to shorten stride and switch to her incorrect left lead past the final sixteenth of a mile as she was collared by the closers to finish third. The Handicapper’s Report Trip Note writer suggested “she can’t run this far,” and thus will be better suited to shorter distances such as today’s five furlongs on the turf. Although she failed to hit the board in four previous starts on a dirt main track, she switched to the main track on July 1 as turf racing was canceled the final three weeks of the Santa Anita meeting and she crossed the finish line last beaten sixteen lengths behind the once beaten Bendable. She broke with her field but was immediately parked three wide in a three horse speed duel with favorite Bendable and Street Surrender as those three battled through blistering fractions of 21.42 and 44.34 seconds. Cuyathy was part of this fast pace speed duel all the way to the quarter pole where she gave way entering the stretch and was eased through the lane by jockey Joe Talamo. The extent of just how fast those three went can be described by reviewing the Moss Pace Figures and seeing they went above average splits through the first half mile (+8, +3). This filly will now make the switch from the dirt to the turf a move trainer Bill Morey Jr. has connected at excellent 29% (14-4-1-3) in the past year with that move and the speed of this field displayed her early zip with a five furlong 58.3 move on July 24 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington actually caught faster than the official clocking. In this B move, Andy stated “Pedroza up; honed speed with a this blisteringly fast solo spin in 34.1 early finishing sharply in 57.2. Reduction in distance helps this sprinty traveler.” She will finally get that turn back in distance to five furlongs and returns to turf where she ran very well in a race that fell apart for the closers on May 27 at Santa Anita. If she breaks aggressively to the front the others in this field will have to try to chase her at what should be juicy odds as possible gate to wire theft to begin the Guaranteed $600,000 Late Pick 4.
In my exotics I will use the three main contenders on the morning line. Seaside Glory (#4) who broke her maiden on June 17 where she flashed early speed from the rail in a five horse field to establish a pressured pace, shook free of her pace rival, and drew clear to win quite easily. She too press a quick pace (+4, -1) but nowhere near the extent our top choice and bounced out of her maiden victory with a sharp B workout on July 17 here at Del Mar. Deltalina (#8) broke her maiden on May 27 where she found herself establishing the early pace through quick fractions, shook free of her closest pace presser, and kick clear easily holding the late bids safely. The biggest issue with that maiden win was she defeated a sub-par field with only seventh-place finishers returning to win and one third-place finish out of that race. Last time out at Churchill Downs she settled into a comfortable spot tracking dueling leaders down the backstretch, she pushed along move three wide around the far turn and into the stretch where she switched to her incorrect left lead past mid-stretch, and picked up the pieces for third. She has trained in sharp fashion with back to back B moves per Andy Harrington over this Del Mar turf course for trainer Wesley Ward who wins at gaudy 50% (8-4-1-0) the past five years on the Del Mar turf course sprinting. Peach Cove (#1) enters this race with B move per Andy Harrington and showed plenty of quality defeating a thirteen horse field in her native New Zealand.
The Play: I strongly believe the switch to turf and shortening up to five furlongs on this course is exactly what our top choice Cuyathy will be well suited to. At juicy odds of 12-1 on the morning line she gets our WIN bet with Exactas top and bottom looking to make a score if Cuyathy is too fast for this group.
WIN bet on (7) CUYATHY at 8-1 or better.
Main Exacta key box: 7 / 1, 4, 8.
Race 7: Allowance N1X/Optional Claiming $40,000, 6-½ Furlongs, Three and up
TimeformUS pace projector anticipates that this sprint will be a hotly contested early pace that will be disputed by Glacken Too, Schillairess, and morning line favorite Jazzy Times. From the inside post position, Rocket Fuel will employ stalking tactics as he will be out-sprinted for the early lead joined by Hank the Tank and Mad Bum. Look for Brimstoned, Old Man Lake, Alright Alright, and Pulmarack to be charging late hoping for a pace meltdown.
I am not going to throw out Jazzy Times from my wagers but I will take a stand against second choice Rocket Fuel. TimeformUS suggest the early pace will be fast and the one time he encountered a real fast pace was on May 30 here at Santa Anita where he broke from the rail and was out sprinted by the very quick and next time out winner Drefong through quick early fractions for a half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+4, +1) and crossed the wire fifth in a six horse field. The blinkers were added on three weeks ago on July 10 and he ran excellent second in a track record performance by Power Jam earning the field’s highest last race 98 Beyer Speed Figure. However that was a very glib and fast surface and the pace was only moderate for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-2, -3). He will have to prove from the rail he can chase or pressed a type of sprinter’s early pace that my top two choices have already faced in their most recent starts.
Three horses in this race are the main body of early pace but I strongly believe that Glacken Too (#3) is the horse with the proven form at the distance, class level, and should be a very generous price considering he has finished off the board in his last two starts beaten a combined margin of twenty-one and a quarter lengths. He takes a drop into the optional claiming price of $40,000 for the first time in five starts for the meets leading trainer Phil D’Amato and defeated Allowance N2X/Optional Claiming $62,500 company at this distance on May 14 at Santa Anita where he earned a career best 96 Beyer Speed Figure which is above par for today’s class level (94 Beyer Speed Figure) and he had to earn this victory running hard from start to finish. In this race he and his pace rival Guy Code broke running as those two opened up a two and half length lead on the next horse Kristo as they blazing an opening quarter in 21.55 seconds. This Smoke Glacken gelding continued pressing the pace in the two path on the far turn when he received more pressure as Kristo ranged up three wide around the far turn only a length off the leader after a 43.98 second half mile, he shook free of Guy Code, turned away a challenge from Kristo, and kicked clear into the stretch to win going away by two and quarter lengths. The early pace for the first half mile was fast per Moss Pace Figures (+4, +1) and the extent of the early pace took its toll on Guy Code who tired badly to finish fifth beaten five lengths and Kristo who finished fourth beaten three and a half lengths. The career best speed figure that Glacken Too earned was confirmed when the runner-up and fifth place finisher returned to run first and second in their next start on June 11 earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 94 respectively. In addition, sixth place finisher Heir of Storm came back to go gate to wire in a $50,000 claiming sprint earning 97 Beyer Speed Figure. This strong performance resulted in Glacken Too going off as the 2-1 second choice behind Lord Nelson in Allowance N3X sprint on June 3 where he had no chance when you factor the amount of ground he lost from start to finish. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “prompted five-deep early then tracked outside, outrun around the far turn, five-wide again into the lane, faded to last.” Trakus reported that he covered 22 feet more than the winner Lord Nelson. The latter earned a career best 100 Beyer Speed Figure and confirmed that figure by returning to win the Gr. 1 Triple Bend Handicap on June 25 with the same speed figure. In his last start on July 8 over this same distance as today he lost whatever chance he had at the start. Sent off as the second choice he bobbled at the start to be away last, rushed up quickly to chase the favored leader Masochistic through 21.53 second opening quarter, began to drop back midway on the far turn as he was urged to keep up with the leader after 43.61 second half mile, and eased through the stretch to finish last beaten thirteen and a quarter lengths. This was no ordinary Allowance N3X sprint as the conditions of this race were written for horses such as Masochistic to return and the favored winner earned an off the chart 107 Beyer Speed Figure which is tied for the second fastest race up to one mile this year only behind Frosted’s 123 Beyer Speed Figure in the Met Mile on June 11 at Belmont Park. After defeating Allowance N2X rivals three races back and facing Graded Stakes caliber sprinters in his last two starts he takes realistic drop into this optional claiming $40,000 today and he bounced back with stellar five furlong move in 1:00 ⅘ on July 21 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington actually caught going faster giving him a B+. Andy stated in this “Big drill for this roan going in a faster than given 35.0, 59.1 then took off on the gallop out in 112.0 going out on a huge triple gallop in 138.3 for a mile. Set for best; Garcia up.” With a clean start under Martin Garcia he should prompt the early pace of Jazzy Times and I believe those two can run first and second around the racetrack as Glacken Too should be set on the drop in class as my BEST BET on the card.
Jazzy Times (#8) has lost at odds of 1-2 and 4-5 in his last two starts but this Discreetly Mine dark bay horse won the early pace battle on June 25 but lost the war in a race that saw the winner Who’s Out rallied from fifth to win by two and a half lengths. He broke on top in that race and was pressured longshot Golden Atlantic through a 21.41 second opening quarter of a mile, shook that rival easily, took charge while guided over to the rail into and around the far turn, was challenged by the opportunistic stalking winner Who’s Out at mid-stretch, and was second best matching his career best 92 Beyer Speed Figure which is the second highest last race speed figure in the field. He ran the best race in defeat as he contested a quick early pace for a half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+6, +1) and he raced on the rail from the three-eighths pole to the finish on a main track that favored outside paths making his defeat much better than it appears on paper. He is drawn directly outside of his two main pace rivals in Glacken Too and Schillairess and should workout a similar trip to his debut victory on May 7 at Churchill Downs where he won by two and three-quarter lengths where he defeated three next time out winners. He enters this race with your typical Bob Baffert back to back B+ works per National Turf’s Andy Harrington and the strength of that race was validated when the winner returned to run second on Saturday repeating his 97 Beyer Speed Figure behind Conquest Cobra who won by three and half lengths earning career best 103 Beyer Speed Figure.
In my exotics underneath those two horses I will use Brimstoned (#2). This Unusual Heat gelding won his his first two starts over the Del Mar main track by more than thirteen lengths and in his only defeat here at Del Mar happened on November 14 where he was unruly in the paddock, very difficult to saddle, and washed out going to the gate per Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. He wanted no part of the turf versus a “key” race field on January 18 at Santa Anita and he won his two previous starts returning off layoffs of fifty-seven and forty-eight days. Schillariess (#5) takes a big step up in class after leading gate to wire versus Starter Allowance rivals on June 25 where he set an early pace slower than Jazzy Times and won going away over Basinca who returned to finish second beaten a nose earning a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in his next start. Undefeated in two starts on the main track.
The Play: My action is strictly focused around our top two choices Glacken Too and Jazzy Times with preference on the former exiting the tougher races and taking the drop in class after defeating Allowance N2X rivals three races back.
WIN bet on (3) GLACKEN TOO at 7-2 or better.
Main Exacta Box: 3-8.
Small Exactas: 3-2, 3-5, 8-2, 8-5. No reverse.
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