Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Two-year old Fillies
The pace of this maiden special weight develops on paper as TimeformUS pace projector shows the Auntjenn (#1) from the rail going straight to the front followed closely by Tammy’s Window (#3) in the first quarter of a mile. Morning line favorite Adorable (#2) will be in prime striking position in third stalking the pace from the rail with second time starters Light of the Moon (#4) and Princess Coco (#6) sitting in midpack waiting to make their moves leaving the backstretch in a race where the TimeformUS pace projector sees this race not favoring a specific running style.
Although she was completely ignored in the wagering at 11-1 and ran the expectations of the wagering public finishing fourth beaten ten-lengths, Princess Coco (#6) was expected not to be primed in her career debut on June 23 at Santa Anita. Trainer Keith Desormeaux rarely wins with his two-year olds making their career debut in a dirt sprint winning at 5% rate (44-2-6-4) in the past five years in that category. In addition this daughter of Pioneerof the Nile did not catch National Turf’s Andy Harrington attention in her training towards her debut with a pair of C+ workouts including a half mile spin in 47 flat from the gate on June 18 that he stated “Outrun by the older Ultimate Game after breaking flat-footed, asked out in 35.3, 47.3 out in 101.3. Like to watch one here.” Given the trainer’s lack of success with debuting two-year old maidens in a dirt sprint and her lack of enthusiasm in her training one can understand why she was dismissed at 11-1. In her career debut she angled over to the rail to track the early pace set by the uncontested leader Chalon early, dropped back while badly outrun around the far turn, and weaken beaten ten lengths behind the gate to wire winner. Despite the defeat, Princess Coco made her career debut in highly rated maiden race where the winner earned a 79 Beyer Speed Figure which is above average for two-year old fillies (76 Beyer Speed Figure). This full sister to three time winner Lady of the Nile will make her second career start and showed some spark in her training recording half mile move in 48.2 on July 9 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington reported “Easy spin out of debut finishing with herself. Inching forward.” More importantly, trainer Keith Desormeaux excels with two-year olds making their second career start especially here at Del Mar. Last year, he had three starters making their second career start as two-year olds in a dirt sprint here at Del Mar and he won with two of them: Go Long (July 18, 2015, $2.60-1) and Exaggerator (July 25, 2015, $2.10-1) and both horses were ridden by today’s rider and brother Kent Desormeaux. Princess Coco will not get plenty of support because of how badly beaten she was in her debut but based on how Keith Desormeaux’s two-year olds improve in their second start here at Del Mar, manner she has trained out of her debut, and exiting a highly rated maiden event this dark bay or brown filly deserves a second chance at what should be a square price in the first six furlong maiden race for two-year olds this meet.
In our exotics I will recommend only two horses and both horses ran behind the now deceased Dynamite Charge on July 4 at Santa Anita. Adorable (#2) cost a hefty $450,000 at the Barretts March 2016 two-year old in training sales which was the second highest priced son of Smart Strike at that sales. In her career debut she chased the quick early pace set by the gate to wire Dynamite Charge from the rail early, continued saving ground around the far turn, cut the corner into the stretch, and was second best finishing 2-¼ lengths in front of the rest of the field. Although that maiden race was not a fast maiden event as the runaway winner only earned 67 Beyer Speed Figure, the field was strung out suggesting a quality victory. Trainer Bob Baffert wins at an excellent 21% (33-7-3-8) with second time starters in a maiden special weight here at Del Mar the past five years. This bay filly has caught National Turf’s Andy Harrington at Del Mar with a pair of B works including a sharp three furlong blowout on July 20 that he reported “Leveled out well on the line in 11.3 last 1/8th. Moving forward.” Light of the Moon (#4) managed to split the field in a better than looked fifth place finish behind gate to wire winner Dynamite Charge. She broke from outermost post position ten in a ten horse field, raced widest of all down the backstretch, moved forward with a three wide move around the far turn, and ran evenly through the stretch to lose by 9-¼ lengths. According to Trakus, she covered 44 feet and 42 feet more respectively than the winner and second-place finisher Adorable. She makes her second start with a stellar B work on July 12 where National Turf’s Andy Harrington caught her working “under wraps in 24.1, 48.2.”
The Play: I will not recommend playing a three-horse exacta among my top three choices because that play does maximize your opinion. Instead I will key my top choice Princess Coco to split the two morning line favorite. This play will involve my top choice finishing first or second. If my top choice wins we will cash in both WIN bet, exacta plays and I will make a defensive play using her in second.
WIN bet on (6) PRINCESS COCO at 4-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 6-2, 6-4. Small reverse.
Race 5: Allowance N2X/Optional Claiming $62,500, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and up
On paper the two horses who run their best races on or near the front end will carve out an early pace that is fast early to set this race up for horses coming from off the early pace. According to TimeformUS pace projector, Batti Man (#7) will go straight to the front but will be hounded early by Hidden Zensation (#2) around the first turn and into the backstretch. Horses in the second flight close to that fast pace will be Calculator (#9) and Kenjistorm (#10). In mid-pack look for Atomic Rule (#3), Itsinthepost (#4), and Skelton Pass (#11). The closers that hope for a pace meltdown will be Metaboss (#1), China Girl Lover (#5), and Perfectly Majestic (#8).
Morning line favorite Calculator (#9) will be favored because he drops in class after finishing second in both the Gr. 1 Carter and Gr. 2 Churchill Downs Handicap. He exits a last place finish behind Frosted in the Gr. 1 Met. Mile in the fastest race per the Beyer Speed Figures this year that earned 123 Beyer Speed Figure. However there are reasons to take a stand against him in this spot. Firstly he will make his first race on turf and there is nothing in his pedigree that suggest he will handle the surface switch. His sire, In Summation, wins at 7% (5-for-74) with turf routers in the past five years. His dam Back of Basics has produced two other foals: Basic Values and Gust and they are winless from three starts on turf. He will be forwardly placed stretching out close to a fast pace and once he makes his bid he will face the stalkers with a finishing kick and form on grass.
The second choice on the morning line Itsinthepost (#4) has blossomed under the care of trainer Jeff Mullins and he has made my Horses to Watch in his two starts for Mullins and once his name was in the entry box he was my automatic top choice. The American Post gelding made his first race for new conditioner on May 8 at 1-⅛ miles on turf at Santa Anita and could not have been more impressive winning by 4-¼ lengths despite losing ground around both turns. In that race he prompted the early pace outside of the leader To the Bar and pace presser Los Gatos through fractions of 47.56 seconds for a half mile and 1:11.89 seconds for six furlongs. He took over into the stretch shaking free of his two pace rivals and kicked away to win going away earning a then career best 94 Beyer Speed Figure. The form of that Allowance N1X was confirmed when third-place finisher To the Bar returned two starts later to win a Allowance N1X on the main track with a 96 Beyer Speed Figure and second place finisher Little Scotty returned to win two starts later a Allowance N1X on July 22 here at Del Mar. One of the most impressive parts about this victory was the amount of ground he lost as he covered 42 and 44 feet more than the second and third-place finishers according to Trakus. He returned four weeks later making the logical jump to Allowance N2X on June 12 and ran second best to going away winner Ohio where he ran the fastest final quarter of a mile in the field per DRF Formulator. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “pulled between horses and steadied early, angled in with one beat along the rail, bottled up while waiting for room leaving the far turn, moved forward in the stretch, split horses midstretch, angled back in, second best,” completing his final quarter of a mile in 22.73 seconds earning a 96 Beyer Speed Figure which equals the average winning speed figure at this class level. Although the form of that race was not flattered when the winner, third, and fourth-place finishers all returned to finish off the board in their next race, Itsinthepost is realistically spotted at the same class level as his last start and has bounced out of his last start to train in a sharp fashion here at Del Mar. According to National Turf’s Andy Harrington he worked a solid five furlongs in 1:04.4 on July 17 on the turf where he is “Still razor sharp striding out under light restraint in 40.2, 104.4. Tyler up and blinkers on.” The expected brisk early fractions will benefit this gelding’s late kick who will be stalking the early pace in mid-pack and with a clear run he will only have to repeat his last race to break through this condition as my BEST BET to kick off the Saturday Pick 6 and conclude the Pick 5.
In my exotics I will use the following horses including my second preference who is 20-1 on the morning line. Atomic Rule (#3) returns to the Del Mar turf course where he has shown a clear affinity for this surface with a 3-1-1-0 record with his lone debacle happen last November where he defeated only two horses in a nine horse field but faced a productive field where the winner Poshky returned to Gr. 3 Berkeley Handicap at Golden Gate and second-place finisher Chiropractor returned to win Gr. 1 Hollywood Derby. He is winless in his three starts this year and had legitimate excuses in two defeats on the turf. The Tribal Rule gelding attempted to rally from third behind a very slow early pace (50.14 and 1:14.31) on May 8 in a race where the first two finishers ran 1st and 2nd at each call. Last time out he was closer to the early pace set by the uncontested leader and eventual winner Anythingscookin, moved too early to challenge that leader leaving the backstretch and dueled with that rival around the far turn, and flattened out on his run finishing second. He makes his first start in fifty-five days but the short layoff proved beneficial last year as he sprung 8-1 upset on this turf course off a fifty-nine day layoff and most importantly he will get plenty of early pace for his stalking style with Batti Man and Hidden Zensation expected to set a fast pace per TimeformUS pace projector and ships back to Del Mar with a sharp B work on July 16 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Tiago up; some power here while working in the 3 path then galloped out with purpose for McCanna in 37.2, 101.3 out in 114.2 out again 128.4. Going in good form down here.” Perfectly Majestic (#8) is shy of visiting the Winner’s Circle with ten combined seconds or thirds from fourteen starts and enters this race off a tenth place finish in the Gr. 3 San Francisco Mile but he ran a respectable third at this same class level on March 20 where his rally was hampered by a race shape that favored horses on or near the early lead and by minor traffic trouble into the stretch. Per the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “raced off the pace two-deep early then angled to the rail down the backstretch, remained on the fence around the far turn, steadied off heels nearing the 1/4 pole, angled out upper stretch, split horses mid stretch, late rally for third.” The winner and second place finisher were 3rd and 2nd after a quarter of a mile and half mile as Perfectly Majestic was the only horse to rally versus the race shape. He enters this race with seven works including slow B- move on July 12 over this turf course where National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Desormeaux up; slow drill but moved smoothly over the turf in 28.0, 40.1, 118.4. Looks healthy and willing.” An expected fast pace will suit his closing kick. Metaboss (#1) will make his first start for trainer Phil D’Amato in a turf route and according to DRF Formulator he wins at 20% (15-3-3-2) in the past year with new acquisitions in a turf route.
The Play: I expect my top choice ITSINTHEPOST to be bet down from his 4-1 morning line and that will be fine because I will focus on him winning in my Exacta and Trifecta wagers that I will outline below. My only WIN wager will be ATOMIC RULE who at 20-1 is a recommend win bet and he will be totally dismissed because of his three starts at Golden Gate.
WIN bet on (3) ATOMIC RULE at 12-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 4-1, 4-3, 4-8. Small reverse.
Trifecta part-wheel: 4 with 1, 3, 8 with 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11 = $36 for $2 Wager
Trifecta part-wheel: 1, 3, 8 with 4 with 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11 = $18 for $1 Wager
Race 7: Gr. 2 San Clemente, 1-Mile, Three-year old Fillies
The scratch of Sweet Queen means one less pace rival that the horses who will be racing on or near the early lead have to deal with. Although TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at a fast pace with Belvoir Bay (#1) going for the lead and being pursued or pressed by Corps de Ballet (#4) and Jade Princess (#5), I feel only two of the three entrants have a realistic chance and can make this race strictly one-two affair. Those tracking the early speed in the first flight will be Princess Princess (#6), morning line favorite Stays in Vegas (#10), and Gone to Bali (#11). Closers such as Mokat (#9) and Mirage (#8) hope the fast pace that TimeformUS anticipates materializes for their late kick while Be Mine (#3) will be charging from mid-pack in a competitive but fun edition of the San Clemente.
Four rivals including two morning line favorites are exiting the Gr. 2 Honeymoon Stakes on June 19 at Santa Anita and I will be playing against those exiting the race: Be Mine, Stays in Vegas, Lady Valeur, and Gone to Bali. The first two finishers in that race had a complete setup as Gone to Bali busted out of the gate to set a fast pace, 45.92 second half mile as the first two finishers benefited from this race shape rallying from 7th and 5th. I will only use Stays In Vegas in my recommend exacta plays but I will only use her underneath. My focus in this race will be those that faced champion Songbird this year.
Trainer Bob Baffert rarely wins with long shots at Del Mar where he has connected at 8% rate with a record of 86-7-11-5 in the past five years with his trainees going off between odds of 5-1 and 10-1. Interesting three of those were routing on the turf here at Del Mar and Jade Princess (#5) can make eight horses trained by Bob Baffert to win at odds higher than 5-1 or better. This gray Tapit filly ran respectable on the main track but had the misfortune of chasing after the undefeated Songbird in her last two starts on the main track at Santa Anita. In the February 6 Gr. 2 Las Virgenes she was closest to the favored winner Songbird who was allowed to dictate a very easy pace thru an opening quarter in 23.63. She dropped back into the far turn and weaken badly finishing thirteen lengths behind the champion two-year old filly. In the Gr. 3 Santa Ysabel she stalked outside of Songbird around the first turn and into the backstretch as the undefeated champion sailed on an uncontested lead through faster early pace per Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+5, +9). She started to drop back as the winner began to open up around the far turn, battled with eventual second-place finisher Land over Sea for minor placings and lost third to the opportunistic closer Mokat in a respectable effort in defeat. The gray Tapit shorten up to seven furlongs on Kentucky Oaks day at Churchill Downs in the Eight Belles and was no match behind impressive winner Carina Mia who returned to win the Gr. 1 Acorn on Belmont Stakes day with a 98 Beyer Speed Figure and is the second choice in the Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga this Sunday behind Songbird. Jade Princess was bred to love the turf as she is a daughter of Jade Queen who won three-of-sixteen starts all routing on the turf and she produced Jaded Glory who won two of ten starts on the turf. She got her chance to try the turf on June 17 in a Allowance N2X versus older rivals and she ran an excellent second to the opportunistic stalker Majestic Heat who rallied from midpack to win by 1-¼ lengths. In that race she rated nicely behind the pacesetter Little Bit Lovely as she carved out fractions of 22.59 seconds and 46.00 seconds for the first half mile. She moved up to engage that leader on the far turn, took command into the lane only to challenged by the perfect trip stalking winner, battled gamely with that rival to mid-stretch, and safely held second. Her 89 Beyer Speed Figure ties her with the second best last race speed figure on turf and she earn this figure chasing a quick early pace versus older rivals. She now makes hidden drop in class versus her own age group and should get a sweet trip just off Belvoir Bay and get first run. The Bob Baffert trainee makes her third start into her form cycle with four works including her last two works that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B commenting she was under a “Light hold under wraps with Dream Team in 24.4, 102.1. Moving smoothly,” on July 19. She is the best price play in this field at 10-1 on the morning line and belongs in this field at what should be a square price.
In my exotics I will use three horses which includes morning line favorite Stays in Vegas (#10) but my close second preference belongs to Mokat (#9) who also chased Songbird in both the Gr. 3 Santa Ysabel and Gr. 1 Santa Anita Oaks. In the former she closed from the rear of the field behind a fast early pace for the first half mile (+5, +9) and caught the tiring Jade Princess to finish third. In the latter event she made a quick move leaving the first turn to chase the favored Songbird in fourth down the backstretch and once again could only finish second behind that undefeated champion. She was ambitious placed in the Gr. 1 Kentucky Oaks where she chased moderate early pace in good position on the rail, began to retreat into the far turn, and finished thirteenth in a fourteen horse field. The Richard Baltas trainee returns to turf specifically the Jimmy Durante turf course where she owns a stellar 2-1-1-0 record. She returns off a seventy-eight day layoff for a barn that has won at 30% clip (20-6-3-1) with his trainees returning from a sixty to eighty-five day layoff in a turf route. The daughter of Uncle Mo impressed National Turf’s Andy Harrington where she navigated five furlongs in 1:01.3 on this turf course where Andy gave it a B stating “Was willing home in this turf spin in 38.0, 101.4 finishing up willingly in this solo drill. Way more comfortable over the grass.” Jockey Kent Desormeaux with three turf wins already this meet takes over. A fast pace will benefit her greatly. Belvoir Bay (#1) she was visually impressive in her second start in North America in last year’s Blue Norther Stakes. She sat just off the leader Sweet Queen, took over anytime jockey Flavien Prat wanted and crushed her rivals by 7-¼ lengths earning the field’s top last race 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The scratch of Sweet Queen will benefit her as that will be one less pace rival to deal with but she must deal with Jade Princess. Moreover, trainer Peter Miller brings her back off a two hundred and nine day layoff and in the past five years he is winless with his previous five starters per DRF Formulator returning off a layoff between one hundred and eighty days and two hundred and fifteen days in a turf route and she could be using this race strictly as a prep for the Gr. 1 Del Mar Oaks. Stays in Vegas (#10) was closest to that fast pace in the Honeymoon, put in her bid to take over the lead, and was run down in the final sixteenth of a mile in a race that fell apart for the closers. She will cut back to her more ideal one-mile distance and has has worked sharply with a pair of B works according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington.
The Play: I’m playing against the two morning line favorite and you can consider playing against the three morning line favorites because I’m only using third choice Belvoir Bay in the exacta in a defensive manner. I’m strongly going to play both JADE PRINCESS and MOKAT as my WIN bets. And make them a vehicle in my exacta wagers looking to beat all three morning line favorites in my main wagers.
WIN bet on (5) JADE PRINCESS at 5-1 or better.
WIN bet on (9) MOKAT at 6-1 or better.
Main Exacta Box: 5-9.
Smaller Exactas: 5-1, 5-10. No reverse.
Smaller Exactas: 9-1, 9-10. No reverse.
Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, 1-1/16 Turf, Fillies and mares
In the finale, TimeformUS pace projector sees this race not favoring a specific running style. From the outside post position, Sassy Ashley will go straight to the early lead but will be prompted or chased by Georgia Blue and Holiday Movie. Second time starter Haute Style with a clean start should be in behind the early pace saving ground into the first turn with Lethal Legacy.
The theme of today is playing against bad morning line favorites and the finale presents another opportunity to take a stand against another morning line favorite. Sassy Ashley (#10) exits a second-place finish on June 11 that visually was one of the most impressive turf races during the spring-summer meet at Santa Anita. Nine of the ten entrants in that field separated by five-lengths with the exception of the winner, Crimson and Gold, the rest of the field came home in about 50 seconds.
It is very difficult for a first time starter to break their maiden in their career debut let alone doing it in a turf route. However in a below average field a first time starter is typical the selection and Whistle Pretty (#6) is the selection to spring the minor upset in the finale here at Del Mar. This home bred bay filly is trained by Bob Hess Jr who in the past five year according to DRF Formulator has sent out fifteen horses to make their career debut going long on the turf and two of those trainees ran well. Kadesha (May 22, 2014, $16.70-1) broke her maiden running long on the grass for the first time in a maiden special weight and English Notes (January 8, 2012, $8.70-1) ran second beaten a half-length in her career debut running long on the grass in a $75,000 maiden claiming event. Both starters mentioned were ridden by today’s jockey Kent Desormeaux. According to National Turf’s Andy Harrington jockey Kent Desormeaux has been aboard this daughter of War Chant in the morning and Andy has been visually impressed on what he has seen in the morning giving this bay filly a pair of B works for her last two works on July 2 and July 14. In the latter work here at Del Mar, Andy commented this “Leggy sort started slow but really finished with her feet under her in 13.1, 50.4, 114.4 galloping out happily in 127.2. Turfy kinetics to this filly; Kent was up.” It should be no surprise that this filly making her career debut running long on the turf based on her pedigree. She is by Breeders’ Cup Mile winner War Chant who retired undefeated in two starts on turf and she is by multiple Graded Stakes winner Babae who fourteen of thirty-seven starts on turf including four Grade 3 events. She has passed on that affinity for running long on the turf to her progeny as three of her foals are turf winners including Queen of England who won four of twenty turf routes. She will make her debut for capable connections who have had success with their starters running long on the turf, has trained like turf router per National Turf’s Andy Harrington, and is very well bred to love routing on the turf makes Whistle Party the candidate to spring the minor upset in the finale.
In my exotics I will recommend using 20-1 longshot Haute Style (#3). This California-bred by Unusual Heat is bred to love the turf out of the dam Style of the Year who has produced eight turf winners including four time route turf winner Heat Du Jour. Despite the excellent turf pedigree he was dismissed at odds of 20-1 in her career debut on June 18 at Santa Anita and she ran much better than the “Off Slow, 3wd lane,” comment found in your Daily Racing Form. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “Broke slow, was pinched back soon after that, dove sharply to the rail before the first turn, made a middle move from the back of the pack but had nothing for the stretch drive.” She was not abused by jockey Kent Desormeaux through the stretch so one can disregard the fourteen length margin of defeat. She loses Kent Desormeaux but gets the services of jockey Flavien Prat who has won three of fifteen mounts on the turf this meet. In addition, Craig Lewis trainee has bounced back with two workouts including a slow five furlong move in 1:01.2 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating this “Leggy sort was under light hold late, reaching some on the line in 36.4, 101.2. Some run here; seems more focused.” I expect this homebred filly to improve dramatically in her second career start with a clean break. Georgia Blue (#4) ran an excellent second in her career debut down the hill on the turf but has managed to not graduate in her next two starts on the main track. This Neil Drysdale trainee returns to the turf going long and she is a half brother to Scrub Island who won two of nine starts routing on the turf. She displayed an tactical speed in her three starts to indicate she will be forwardly placed under Mario Gutierrez in the irons and she has worked in company with stakes sort Energia Fribby and recent winner Grandma’s Hands in her last two works per National Turf’s Andy Harrington.
The Play: I believe our top choice Whistle Party will get bet down from her 5-1 morning line but I will recommend her to WIN if we can acceptable odds. I will make a win wager on Haute Style who is 20-1 on the morning line and with three good price contenders now I will recommend playing a three-horse exacta box to close out a great card at Del Mar.
WIN bet on (6) WHISTLE PARTY at 7-2 or better.
WIN bet on (3) HAUTE STYLE at 10-1 or better.
Main Exacta Box: 3, 4, 6
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