Sunday July 17, 2016
Race 6: Claiming $8,000, 6-½ Furlongs, Three-year olds and upward
TimeformUS does not see this race developing at a very fast pace but there is enough early speed signed on to suggest it will be a honest pace for horses coming from off the pace. Pat the Bear (#2), Success Rate (#4), and morning line favorite Adair (#9) will be the three vying for the early lead after a quarter of a mile. The horses that will be sitting in behind this leading trio waiting to pounce are Celebrity Status (#5), Swiss Cheese (#6), and longshot Out Think’Em (#8).
Morning line favorite Adair enters this field with the top last race 87 Beyer Speed Figure on June 4 at Santa Anita but he was visually unimpressive under ideal circumstances where pressed a moderate pace over a main track that strongly favored horses with early speed running along the outside paths. Plus he never switched leads through the stretch his placement for $8,000 is realistic but his probable odds are not. I will try to beat him focusing my attention on horse for course Swiss Cheese (#6). The Swiss Yodeler gelding broke his maiden in his career debut last August here at Del Mar and since that race he has finished second in two more starts over this main track. In his last start here at Del Mar on November 14 he ran respectable second $16,000 N3L claiming event where he was wide early behind a three-horse speed battle, angled over to the rail into the turn, moved up, and rallied to get up for second behind the pace pressing winner Love De Car finishing ahead of two next time out winners No Ez Money and Flat Gone. Next he ran for a $12,500 N2X at Los Alamitos on December 5 where he chased the uncontested runaway leader Cowtown Mary early, moved up to challenge that rival between rivals into the stretch, and was out kicked to the wire by Cougar Country to lose by neck. Although that race just a N2X claiming event it proved to be a productive race as the third-place finisher Cowtown Mary returned to win earning improved 75 Beyer Speed Figure and fourth place finisher Ultimate Luck returned to finish second earning improved 72 Beyer Speed Figure. He was reeled back in only thirteen days rest and ran a dismal fifth beaten five-lengths behind the gate to wire Backstreet Boss. A claimed was voided on December 18 and returned to the barn of Bob Hess Jr. where he will making his first start of 2016. Although trainer Bob Hess Jr. has won only 8% (3-for-39) with his sprinters returning off layoffs of 180 days or more, do note he trained Overcomer (July 16, 2016, $2.50-1) to win the first race on Saturday returning off a 300 day layoff and Swiss Cheese proved he can run well fresh breaking his maiden over this main track in his debut. Moreover, Swiss Cheese has trained with plenty of vigor in the morning recording two consecutive B workouts from National Turf’s Andy Harrington on June 23 and July 9 including the latter work that Andy indicated this “Good looking sort looks fit and happy off the break for Hess going the last 4f in 48.2. Nice for the level.” He will get an ideal race setup for his stalking style with at least two rivals in Pat the Bear and Success Rate going to the early lead to challenge morning line favorite Adair and jockey Kent Desormeaux who was aboard this gelding debut victory is back in the irons. Realistically spotted off the long layoff, training super for his return, and perfect race set up over his favorite main track makes Swiss Cheese my longshot BEST BET on the card.
In my exotics I will be using Celebrity Status (#5) who will be out sprinted for the early lead by early speed rivals Pat the Bear, Success Rate, and Adair but will attempt to run him down through the stretch. The Peter Miller trainee disputed the early lead with the pacesetter and favorite Dive Down on July 3, moved up to challenge for the lead entering the stretch, and weaken in the final furlong to finish fifth. The turn back from a route to a sprint has been a successful one for this barn here at Del Mar winning at a 25% (3-for-12) last year over this main track. If the early speed falls apart then I will also use longshot Apollo Ten (#12) who had no chance on July 3 when he stumbled badly at the start and ran around the racetrack behind a very slow pace set by gate to wire winner Airfoil. He rarely wins with seventeen seconds or thirds from forty-six starts but he can pick up the pieces.
The Play:
WIN bet on (6) SWISS CHEESE at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 6-5. Small reverse.
Small Exacta: 6-12. No reverse.
Race 7: Sandy Blue Handicap, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year old Fillies
The probable pace scenario for this event will be similar to the Eddie Read Handicap run two races later where TimeformUS sees this race developing where it does not favor horses on or near the lead or coming from well off the early pace. Nine Point Nine (#9) will go straight to the front but will be tracked or pressed by longshot Olotta Shaken (#1) and comebacking Riri (#2). A fast pace is what closers such as morning line favorite Cheekaboo (#3), Mrs. Norris (#5), and How Unusual (#8) to set up for their late kick.
If there was a definition of perfect race setup look no further than the Gr. 2 Honeymoon on June 19 at Santa Anita. The winner Cheekaboo received an absolutely perfect rail skimming ride from jockey Mike Smith and ideal race setup where longshot pacesetter sailed through 45.92 seconds. I will be playing against her and expect the Irish bred Barleysugar (#4) to spring the upset in her North American debut. She showed ability in her only her second start defeating a field of thirteen juvenile fillies over the synthetic surface at Kempton. After a debacle in her final start as two-year old, she returned from two hundred and one day layoff in a Listed Handicap on the synthetic surface and ran a respectable third versus males in her seasonal debut. According to Timeform foreign-race analyst, Barleysugar was placed “further back than ideal,” and was “not knocked about” through the stretch finishing third in a race she needed. She returned to the turf stretching out to one-mile for the first time in another Listed Handicap at Newmarket and ran her best race on turf finishing second beaten three-quarters of a length where the Timeform foreign-race analyst stated “ran well over 1f longer trip and continues to steadily progress for top yard.” She remained at one-mile over a left handed course at Chelmsford City course on June 1 and ran a superb second versus a top class rival in Persuasive. Per the Timeform foreign-race analyst, she “again ran well, continuing her steady progress in handicaps, just unlucky to bump into one set for better things.” The form of that June 1 handicap received a significant upgrade when the winner Persuasive remained unbeaten (4-for-4) when she won the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot on June 15. She will make her North American debut for trainer Edward Freeman who ran fourth with his previous foreign shipper Almost Guilty (August 28, 2015, $10.40-1). However Barleysugar is no ordinary maiden as she takes a hidden class drop after facing older horses in her last start to only three-year old fillies in this restricted listed stakes. As the Timeform analyst stated in her last two starts that she has steadily progress as the distances were increased to one-mile and she should have no issue stretching out an additional furlong to this 1-⅛ mile distance. Drawn very well in post position four and with confirmed pacesetter in Nine Point Nine she should get plenty of cover under jockey Gary Stevens and explode through the stretch as she will not have a face a caliber of rival such as Persuasive in this field. The icing on the cake is her juicy 8-1 morning line.
In my exotics I will give Well Caught (#7) another chance to redeem herself after a disastrous North American debut on May 27 down the hillside turf course at Santa Anita. The daughter of Zoffany was sent off the post time favorite and lost all chance when she stumbled badly at the start. Her two-year old form over the synthetic surface in Ireland was excellent per the Timeform foreign race comments. After breaking her maiden in her debut on August 16, she finished an excellent second beaten a half-length in her first start versus winners on September 25 where the Timeform foreign race comments suggested she “upped in trip, showed improved form in defeat, going down only narrowly to one with greater experience.” Now trained by Simon Callaghan, she retains the services of Flavien Prat and has continued to trained well including catching National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s eye on July 1 where she covered five furlongs in 1:00 ⅕ where she displayed “Some late kick evident going the last 1/4 in 24.1 while not asked. Something here.” She has trained like a filly that is better than her first North American start would indicate. Riri (#2) is trained by Phil D’Amato who won his second turf race in two days on Saturday and this Speightstown filly appears primed to run. In her last start over this Del Mar turf course she chased an early pace and tired badly to finish tenth in the Gr. 3 Jimmy Durante where the first four finishers rallied from 9th-6th-5th-8th early. She comes into this race with a strong work pattern for her three-year old debut including a B move on July 12 over this Del Mar turf course where Andy Harrington said she displayed “Big finish for this turfer holding My Year Is A Day at bay late in 39.1, 104.0. Fit and happy off the break.”
The Play:
WIN bet on (4) BARLEYSUGAR at 5-1 or better.
Exacta box key: 4 / 2, 7
Pick 3 Race 7:
Ticket 1: 4 / 1, 8 / 5, 7 = 1 x 2 x 2 x $2 = $8
Ticket 2: 2, 4, 7 / 1, 8 / 7 = 3 x 2 x 1 x $2 = $12
Total Wager: $20
Race 9: Gr. 2 Eddie Read Handicap, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year olds and up
The probable pace scenario looks straightforward on paper and TimeformUS sees this race developing where neither a horse on the lead or coming from off the pace have an advantage. Midnight Storm (#5) will go straight to the front but will be tracked or pressed by Whittingham winner Si Sage (#4) as well as Arcadia winner Bolo (#9) to ensure Eddie Read develops an honest early pace. Ohio (#7) who is undefeated in two starts on turf in North America will draft in stalking role behind the early leaders and will get the jump on closers such as Flamboyant (#2), Texas Ryano (#3), and Finnegans Wake (#6).
He will be facing the toughest test of his two starts on the turf in North America but the belief from this corner is Ohio (#7) has the potential to develop to top class turf miler in Southern California and today’s Eddie Read can prove that. A winner of four of seven starts on turf with only one effort out of the money, this Paulo Lobo trainee was visually impressive winner of his North American debut on March 5 where he was dismissed at 11-1 defeating a very productive Allowance N1X field. In that race he was allowed to establish an uncontested early lead through moderate fractions of 22.68 seconds and 47.09 seconds. He faced a brief challenge when his pace rival, John’s Success, made his move into the turn and those two dueled through six furlongs in 1:11.78 seconds, shook free of that rival, and switched off nicely into the stretch to kick clear to win by 2-¾ lengths. The strength of that race was validated as both the second-and-sixth place finishers returned to win their next start. Moreover, the third, seventh, and ninth-place finishers returned to win two starts later validating the 97 Beyer Speed Figure. He was bet down to the second choice in the Gr. 3 American Handicap run on a sloppy main track on May 6 and lost all chance at the start when he stumbled badly at the start, pulled jockey Brice Blanc forward to chase dueling leaders Si Sage and Southern Freedom down the backstretch, and weaken as his jockey wisely wrapped up on this son of Elusive Quality through the stretch. His returned to his preferred turf surface on June 12 and delivered one of the most visually impressive performance during the spring-summer meet at Santa Anita that I wrote on my stable mail after this race “Fits right back in Wicker or Eddie Read Handicap on opening weekend of Del Mar.” He was out-sprinted for the early lead and settled in a comfortable position in third behind dueling leaders Hay Dude and Professor Berns early. He started his run three wide around the far turn, angled outside of the tired leaders into the stretch, and exploded through the lane to win by 1-¾ lengths covering his final quarter of a mile in 23.03 seconds earning career best 99 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. He will be taking a significant jump in class to tackle Gr. 1 winners Finnegans Wake and Midnight Storm his connections showed that their colt fits in this Gr. 2 event by electing to run him in this event with a $250,000 purse versus the Wicker that only had $75,000 purse. He has bounced out of his last race with three works over the Santa Anita main track including a six furlong move in 1:15 flat on July 10 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Big rider on a long stirrup breezing the last 5f 39.4, 104.1 (official time looks off). Holds great flesh.” Jockey Brice Blanc remains aboard and his morning line of 8-1 is a price that compensates for the risk of Ohio taking a substantial jump in class for a trainer that does very well with Graded Stakes runners having trained Kentucky Oaks winner Farda Amiga and Metropolitan Mile winner Pico Central.
In my exotics, I will try to beat the second choice on the morning line, Bolo (#9), by using the morning line favorite Midnight Storm (#5). A winner of three of four starts over the Jimmy Durante Turf course, the son of Pioneer of the Nile scored his first Gr. 1 victory in the Shoemaker Mile on June 4 at Santa Anita. The Phil D’Amato trainee was able to coast along on an uncontested lead through moderate fractions of 22.68 and 46.00 seconds. He shook a challenge from favored Heart to Heart and proved a tough customer for the stalker Tourist to run down while running on his left lead to the wire earning career best 110 Beyer Speed Figure. With Si Sage drawn directly inside of him, I expect jockey Rafael Bejarano to employ a stalk and pounce trip similar to his victory in the Gr. 2 Seabiscuit Handicap last November over this same Jimmy Durante turf course. With a sharp six furlongs in 1:12 ⅕ on July 3 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Bejarano up; always sharp worker breezed home in 112.2 while never really asked for run. Remains sharp.” Flamboyant (#2) won Santa Anita’s winter turf events for older horses winning the Gr. 2 San Gabriel at 46-1 over this same distance and Gr. 2 San Marcos at 1-¼ miles. The French-bred enters this race with a respectable fifth in the Group 1 Dubai Turf and will make his first start in one hundred and thirteen days. With at least two to three confirmed horses that prefer to race on or close to the early lead, Flamboyant could have a similar race set as his two victories but one has to question if he is fully cranked off the layoff when you consider trainer Patrick Gallagher is 9-0-2-0 the past five years with turf routers returning off from a one hundred to one-hundred and twenty-five day layoff per DRF Formulator.
The Play:
WIN bet on (7) OHIO at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 7-5. Small reverse.
Small Exacta: 7-2. Smaller reverse.
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