Spectator Looks to Shine Again in the Debutante

BEST BET: SPECTATOR (Race 7, 5-2)

Race 6: Allowance N1X/Optional $40,000, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year olds and upward

TRIFECTA (#7, 5-1) is a horse that based on form might be shy of visiting the winner’s circle with six combined seconds or thirds from eighteen starts on the turf but this Any Given Saturday gelding enters this race in top form finishing first or second in two of three starts including an excellent runner-up performance over this turf course on July 28 here at Del Mar. The Mike Puype trainee has finished off the board only once and that happen two races back on June 17 where he was victimized by a very slow early pace and wide journey from start to finish. He was forced to break from post position eight in a eight horse field where he found himself three wide into and around the first turn and three wide down the backstretch chasing or pressing the eventual winner Hey Dude as that leader was able dictate slow early fractions earning blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He made a run to challenge the eventual winner three wide on the far turn and sustained that run to the top of the stretch where he flattened out on his run and weaken to finish seventh beaten five-lengths in a race where the second-and-eighth place finishers returned to win. Despite this defeat, his connections showed plenty of confidence keeping him in Allowance N1X on July 28 and he ran excellent race behind rally wide winner Oregon in a race that is better than the Blocked ⅛, split foes comment in your Daily Racing Form. According to the HR Trip Notes, Trifecta “ran along at the back of the main pack on the inside, under a hold on the inside of the 3rd flight heading into the far turn, in very tight for a 1/16th of a mile, exploding forward when finding room to be a clear 2nd.” In addition, Trip Note writer stated “he was unlucky to struggle for room in the stretch, but the way the winner ran, it is likely it did not matter this time.” This July 28 Allowance event returned to be “key” race with the winner finishing second in Allowance N2X on August 26 earning identical 89 Beyer Speed Figure and the fourth-and-fifth place finishers, Calvert Street and Fritz Johansen, returned to finish first-and-second on August 19 at the same Allowance N1X class level. The stalking style that has suited him well this year should be on display with David’s Memory stretching out from a sprint to route and Brimstoned and Spanish Hombre forwardly placed on or near the early lead. He has bounced back with three works including a sharp five furlong spin in 1:01 ⅖ on August 26 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington caught him “feeling very good waiting on stakes winner Estrechada going the last 1/4 in 23.4.” With a stalking style that suits the pace for this race and hopefully a clear ground saving trip under regular rider Joe Talamo I expect Trifecta to spring the minor upset to start the final Saturday of the meet.

The Play:

WIN bet on (7) TRIFECTA at 7-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 7-2, 7-6, 7-11. Small reverse for each.

Race 7: Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante, 7 Furlongs, Two-year old Fillies

SPECTATOR (#3, 5-2) is the morning line favorite but the belief in this corner is she could possibly go off as either the second or third choice with plenty of attention centered around two impressive maiden winners Moonshine Memories and Just A Smidge. This homebred daughter of excellent freshman sire Jimmy Creed is undefeated in two starts and she has shown a terrific burst of acceleration in the stretch to indicate the additional sixteenth of a mile should pose no issue. She broke her maiden in her first start on June 23 rallying from off the pace behind a four-horse speed duel early to win by 5-¼ widening lengths at a generous 9-1 earning a respectable 68 Beyer Speed Figure. The strength of that race was more impressive than the final speed figure would indicate in the most productive two-year old maiden race of the spring-summer meet at Santa Anita.The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth-place finishers all returned to win earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 60, 60, 61, and 66. When she made her second career start on August 5 in the Grade 2 Sorrento she was my best bet of the day based not only her visually impressive maiden victory but also impressive July 29 five furlong work in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Ran clear from older barn mate Mag The Mighty with a sharp late kick in 36.2, 100.3 getting passed by the 4f duo of King Eddie and Johnny Be Bueno (both O'Neil) out in 113.1. Plenty of upside here.” Despite this visually impressive move and defeating a key race field, she was sent off as the 4-1 third choice behind impressive maiden winner Diamonds and Pearls and the undefeated Surrender Now and she showed new dimension by taking it to her rivals from the start and never looked back. Run over a main track that favored speed, Spectator “pressed the pace between runners down the backstretch, dueled in the far turn, headed briefly, dashed away at the top of the stretch, opened up, ridden out.” The impressive part about this victory was the extent of the fast early fractions had on Spectator’s pace rivals. The fractions of 21.93 and 45.05 earned above average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+18, +11) and those splits saw her pace rivals weaken to finish third beaten 9-¾ lengths, sixth beaten 29-¾ lengths, and seventh and last beaten 48 lengths. She has been pointed specifically for this race by the meets leading trainer Phil D’Amato and she continues to train like a filly with plenty of promise ahead with three works including a near bullet five furlong move in 59 ⅕ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ flashing a “Big late rally with older barn mate Towards The Light in 37.0, 59.4 (22.4 LQ). Filly is still strong as ever; Theriot up.” This chesnut filly can either lead and dispute the early pace outside of likely leader Moonshine Memories or settle just off it if a speed duel develops and this versatility gives jockey Jamie Theriot plenty of options as she might be slightly overlooked in this talent laden field for the Del Mar Debutante as my BEST BET on the card.

The Play:

WIN bet on (3) SPECTATOR at 3-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 3-5. Small reverse.

$5 Pick 3: 3 w/ 1, 2 w/ 4, 6, 13 = 1 x 2 x 3 x $5 = $30

$4 Pick 3: 5 w/ 1, 2 w/ 4, 6, 13 = 1 x 2 x 3 x $4 = $24

Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, 6-½ Furlongs, Two-year olds

MAJOR CABBIE (#2, 6-1) is a first time starter that will be going against St. Patrick’s Day a full brother to 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in his career debut thirteen days ago and earn the field’s highest last race 81 Beyer Speed Figure and 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Despite those credentials of the post time favorite, everything I have seen from Major Cabbie on a pedigree standpoint, trainer profile, and more importantly his workouts over this Del Mar main track and when you combine that with price that will be around the 5-1 area or higher than the correct play is take the price on this bay colt by excellent debut sire Into Mischief. He was purchased at the Ocala Breeders Sale April two-year old in training sale for $260,000 where he breezed two furlongs in 21 ⅖ and that purchase price is above the sire’s average price of $209,200 for his progeny. He is by 14% debut sire out of the dam Love Catcher who was unraced but produced five starters with three winners including two-year old winner Love Conquers. Trainer Dan Hendricks is not known for his debuting two-year olds here at Del Mar and the reason for that is because he rarely debuts them this early. In the past five-years, he has had only two starters that were two-year olds make their career debut sprinting on the main track here at Del Mar and none of them hit the board. However, Dan Hendricks successfully trained the three-year old, Morgan S, to break his maiden in his debut on August 18 here at Del Mar with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. His stablemate is important to mention in this discussion because on August 2 he worked in company with Major Cabbie where he went three furlongs from the gate in 34 ⅘ with the latter getting outworked by his older stablemate. Since that move, he has come back with four more works including a visually impressive six furlong move on August 15 in 1:12 ⅕ that saw today’s jockey Drayden Van Dyke aboard for the work and he did it very easily with ears pricking back and forth early and finishing with plenty of power towards the wire, and galloping out with energy in reserve (August 15 - Major Cabbie Work). In addition, National Turf’s Andy Harrington has been impressed by this bay colt in his morning training giving him consecutive B moves for his August 15 and August 21 works. He is bred for speed over a distance that favors that style, has worked in tremendous fashion towards his career debut, and for an underrated trainer with first time starters makes Major Cabbie the upset play to begin the final Pick 4 on a Saturday here at Del Mar.

The Play:

WIN bet on (2) MAJOR CABBIE at 5-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 2-1. Small reverse.

Small Exacta: 2-3. No reverse.

Race 9: Grade 2 John C. Mabee, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Fillies and mares

MRS. MCDOUGAL (#6, 5-1) was defeated as the 4-5 post time favorite in the restricted Osunitas Stakes on July 21 where she finished third beaten 2-lengths behind today’s rival Madame Stripes and next time out winner Corps De Ballet. I believe there are reasons to excuse that defeat none more important than the fact this daughter of Medaglia D’Oro was returning from 300-day layoff and her form from last year gives this bay mare reasons to respect this Richard Mandella trainee. Last year, she won two of four starts with her two defeats happen in two prestigious Grade 1 events: Just A Game behind the runaway pace pressing winner Celestine where she finished third as the beaten favorite and Diana behind her previous stablemate Dacita. The last time she visited the winner’s circle happen on September 24 at Belmont Park where she was sent off as the 1-1 choice in the Grade 3 Noble  Damsel and she took advantage of ideal conditions en route to earning career best 101 Beyer Speed Figure and 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She took control of the early lead from the start and set controlled pace through slow fractions designated by the blue coded TimeformUS pace figures and never looked back to win by two lengths over her previous stablemate Zendaya who came back to win the Grade 2 Goldikova at Santa Anita in her next start. That race would be her last race under Chad Brown as she was transferred to Richard Mandella barn and should not make her first start for her new conditioner until July 21, 2017 in a restricted overnight stakes where she was sent off at 4-5 and she finished a respectable third beaten only 2-lengths where she needed the race. According to Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, she “settled on the outside in midpack, confidently ridden into the turn, quickening when asked turning for home, but unable to get close to the top two in the stretch.” Although the Trip Note writer stated that she is probably best at one-mile, I believe this race was used strictly as a prep because jockey Flavien Prat elected to rate her off a moderate early pace and she finished under her own power to the wire. In addition to the long layoff, she covered 47ft and 17ft more respectively than the first two finishers, Madame Stripes and Corps De Ballet. She has returned with four more works capped off by a best of eight six furlong move in 1:12 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating she was “best over Antioch going the last 5f in 59.4. Was pulling nicely early; plenty of speed still evident.” TimeformUS pace projector feel that Mrs McDougal will be on or near the early lead along with Hillhouse High and that should give her a tactical advantage over stalkers and closers such as Decked Out, Cambodia, and Goodyearforroses.

The Play:

WIN bet on (6) MRS. MCDOUGAL at 4-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 6-4, 6-13. Small reverse for each.

Race 11: Maiden Special Weight, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Three-year olds and up

TANIKO (#7, 5-1) is a horse that requires a lot of imagination especially when you look at this horse on paper it would appear he would be a throw out. He has lost his two starts by a combined margin of 34-½ lengths and has defeated only one horse to the wire. He will now make his first start off a 230-day layoff and based strictly on those points he would be an automatic toss. However, previous form on the main track does not pertain when they switch to a new surface especially a surface that Taniko is bred to adore and the meets leading trainer, Phil D’Amato, strengths is horses switching from dirt to turf in a maiden turf route and this $260,000 Fasig Tipton purchase is making that same move. As mentioned earlier, this son of Gio Ponti has shown very little in two starts on the main track as he failed to pass a single horse beaten 23-lengths in his career debut on November 25, 2016 here at Del Mar behind the gate to wire winner Prime Attraction. In his next start on January 15, 2017 he remained on the main track even though the race was originally scheduled to be run on the turf, trailed early behind a very slow early pace according to Moss Pace Figures (-17, -11), came out into the stretch, and passed only one horse without threatening anyone beaten 9-½ lengths. He will now make his first start in more than six months but plenty of changes would suggest that he might be capable of turning around. Firstly, he will be switching to the turf for the first time and he is half brother to three turf winners and two of them are Graded Stakes winners that you might be familiar. Vyjack winner of two of nine starts on the turf including last year’s Grade 2 City of Hope Mile at Santa Anita and recently was second in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile behind Blackjack Cat. The most famous starter from the dam Life Happened is Tepin the 2015 Breeders Cup Mile winner and 2016 Group 1 Queen Anne winner at Royal Ascot and overall won ten of seventeen starts on the turf. Secondly, trainer Phil D’Amato brings him back as a new gelding on the turf in a maiden special weight route and in the past five years here at Del Mar he connects at 29% rate (14/4-2-1) with his starters switching from dirt to turf in a maiden special weight turf route and he has striked twice with that move this meet. Spiritual Warrior (August 3, 2017, $4.70-1) and Troublewithatee (August 19, 2017, $5.60-1) with today’s rider Corey Nakatani riding him for the first time. He comes back with nine works dating back to June 28 at Los Alamitos capped off by a back to back B moves according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including six furlong move in 1:13 flat that he stated “Nice kick while best over Holy Whirly Wind in 37.0, 100.2 (23.2 LQ) galloping out in 113.1. Looks improved.” The switch to turf where he is bred to adore for a trainer that excels with that maneuver and training like a horse that has improved with the time away makes Taniko an intriguing upset possibility in the finale.

The Play:

WIN bet on (7) TANIKO at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 7-4, 7-8, 7-12. Small reverse for each.

Poshsky and Alert Bay Renew Rivarly in California Dreamin Stakes

Race 7: Claiming $32,000 to $28,000, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and up

TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at a fast early pace but I do not see it the same. From the outside post position, jockey R. Almanza will send Alex Rossi straight to the front and will be chased by Midnight Destiny and Indygo Bo into the first turn. Morning line favorite Dream Team will settle into good position on the rail close to a moderate early pace down the backstretch. The closers that hope a fast pace materializes are It Behooves Me, L’s Choice, and Fly Lexis Fly.

Not only does the morning line favorite drop from Allowance N2X into this open $32,000 claiming event, but also Alex Rossi (#9) makes the same move for trainer Doug O’Neil. In the past five years, this barn has won at a gaudy 36% (11-4-1-2) dropping horses from an Allowance into a Claiming race in a dirt route and Alex Rossi hopes to continue in that successful trend. The Freud showed he can at least handle this one-mile distance back on November 1 over this same Del Mar main track when he ran an excellent third to the post time favorite Iron Fist. In that race he was sent for the early lead and establish a pressured early pace with the favored winner as those two opened up a length and a half and two length lead on the rest of the field through fast fractions for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+5, +6). He battled all the way with the favored winner to mid-stretch and lost second to the opportunistic stalker Just Kidding who rallied from third. He earned a respectable 87 Beyer Speed Figure that equals the par for this $32,000 claiming event. He was a vet scratch from his next start on November 28 and was not seen the remainder of 2015. The five-year old returned from two hundred and twenty-three day layoff on June 11 in Allowance N2X sprint at six furlongs and he ran like a horse that needed a race. He displayed early speed but was quickly out sprinted by the quick Guy Code who set moderate fractions per Moss Pace Figures over a glib surface (+3, +2). He dropped back into the far turn and when it was obvious he was not going to threaten with an in the money finish was wisely eased to the wire to lose by eleven lengths finishing last. He has bounced out of that comeback effort with three workouts at Los Alamitos including a B- move on July 6 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant stated “Steady all the way never under any pressure coming the last half in 49.1, reached the wire in 114. Fits on the drop.” He will go for the early lead in a race where his two main pace rivals, Midnight Destiny and Indygo Bo, are not as fast early as him and the drop is a realistic move for a barn that excels at it.

In my exotics, I will also use the other Doug O’Neil trainee Fly Lexis Fly (#8) who returns at the same class level as his runner-up performance on June 11 behind the Bob Baffert favored class dropper Midnight Hawk. In that race he was out-sprinted for the early lead and settled in last behind a very slow pace prompted by the favored winner per the Moss Pace Figures (-14, -6). He came under a drive parked four wide into the far turn and chased the winner to the wire earning a 87 Beyer Speed Figure that is on par for this class level. If a fast pace materializes as TimeformUS pace projector sees than Badge of Silver gelding has an excellent chance to visit the Winner’s Circle for the third time in eight starts this year. Dream Team (#5) makes a suspicious drop from a respectable third in a Allowance N2X into this $32,000 claiming event. This full brother to Graded Stakes winner Cupid ran a respectable third at this distance versus Allowance N2X rivals on June 10 chasing a very slow early pace per Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (-7, -3) and chased the first two finishers to the wire who ran 2nd and 1st at each call. He is primed for a winning performance with a pair of B works per National Turf’s Andy Harrington here at Del Mar and Bob Baffert does drop to win race as he wins at 26% with his starters dropping from Allowance to Claiming event in the past five years per DRF Formulator.

The Play: My preference in this race goes to Alex Rossi who will most likely go to the front and force the rest of his rivals to chase him to the wire. For the purposes of betting this race I will focus on wagers on him winning this event and looking at the win and exacta pools to maximize my investment. In addition due to my single in Race 9 and a Pick 6 carryover that will have more than $1 Million in the pool I will be playing the Pick 4 for the first time this Del Mar.

WIN bet on (9) ALEX ROSSI at 7-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 9-5, 9-8. Small reverse for each.  

Pick 4

$3.50: 5, 8, 9 / 5, 7 / 3 / 6 = $21

$2: 5, 8, 9 / 2 / 3 / 6           = $6

$2: 5, 8, 9 / 5, 7 / 1 / 6        = $12

$2: 5, 8, 9 / 5, 7 / 3 / 4, 8, 10 = $36

$1: 5, 8, 9 / 2 / 1 / 6 = $3

$1: 5, 8, 9 / 2 / 3 / 4, 8, 10     = $9

$1: 5, 8, 9 / 5, 7 / 1 / 4, 8, 10 = $18

Total Cost: $105  

Race 8: California Dreamin Stakes, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three and up

TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early pace that does not favor horses on or near the lead or coming from off the pace. From the outside position Avanti Bello will go straight to the early lead but will be tracked or pressed by Magic Mark who will be making his second start following a lengthy layoff. In behind this first flight will be Ambitious Brew, Boozer, and Soi Phet. In midpack Alert Bay and Poshky will be heard making their moves leaving the backstretch while closers such as Somethings Unusual and Patriots Rule hope for a pace meltdown and clear trip to setup their late charge.

In the past two years, Poshky (#7) has visited the Del Mar Winner’s Circle. He won an Allowance N1X in 2014 and last year won an Allowance N2X over subsequent Gr. 1 Hollywood Derby winner Chiropractor during the Bing Crosby season last November. The six-year old gelding off a last to first victory in the Crystal Water Handicap on June 11 at Santa Anita at 21-1 but those odds seem strange when you consider he ran a superb fourth in the Gr. 3 Thunder Road Stakes on April 9 at the same one-mile distance. In that fourth place finish, the Peter Miller trainee was inside of a three-horse speed duel into the first turn, he was taken back off this fast pace speed duel to stalk in fourth early. He started to shuffle back as the field became bunched midway on the far turn but re-rallied along the inside into the stretch and ran evenly to finish fourth in a race dominated by closers as the first three finishers in the Thunder Road rallied from 6th, 9th, and 7th after the first half mile and the three leaders after a half mile finished 8th, 9th, and 11th as Poshky was the only horse close to that very fast pace to hold on well at the finish. Moreover the Thunder Road became productive event with Si Sage and Finnegans Wake returning two starts later to win Gr. 2 Whittingham and Allowance race respectively. He wanted no part of the main track when he finished fourth in the Bertrando Stakes on April 16 and found himself covering a lot of ground behind a glacial early pace in the Gr. 3 All American on May 30 at Golden Gate. He returned to the turf at one-mile and sprung the 21-1 upset over Alert Bay in the Crystal Water Handicap. He settled in last early as the runaway pacesetter, Spirit Rules, set an enervating early pace through the first half mile in 46.16 seconds. He launched his bid from the rear of the field while five wide into the stretch and won the prolonged stretch duel with Alert Bay to win by a half-length earning a career best 105 Beyer Speed Figure. The form of that race received a huge upgrade when third-place finisher, Ashleyluvsugar returned to finish second beaten a half-length in the Gr. 2 Eddie Read Handicap earning a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. Despite charging from last, this gelding does not need to be far back evident by his fourth-place finish in the Gr. 3 Thunder Road on April 9 at Santa Anita. He will most likely sit in mid-pack behind a moderate pace set by Avanti Bello and come charging from off the pace over his favorite turf course.

In my exotics I will also use Alert Bay (#5) who ran a game second to our top choice and one can argue he ran the best race. The City Zip gelding and multiple Graded Stakes winner on the turf had to do the dirty work in the Crystal Water chasing the longshot pacesetter Spirit Rules through a very quick early pace, made his move as the leader weaken to finish last, made the lead, and refused to yield easily as Poshky rallied from last to win by a half-length. His only race over the Jimmy Durante turf course was to subsequent Gr. 1 Shoemaker Mile and Gr. 2 Eddie Read winner Midnight Storm. Ambitious Brew (#2) will be my lone backup in this race and should not be dismissed. He was ambitiously placed in the Gr. 1 Triple Bend on June 25 at Santa Anita and ran well pressing the pace while widest of all early and stayed on gamely to mid-stretch when he was out kicked in the final furlong finishing sixth. He returns to his preferred surface on turf and has trained with plenty of vigor entering this race with a B+ move on July 17 at Los Alamitos per National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant. I expect a ground saving stalk and pounce trip under Flavien Prat.

The Play: I believe this race will be won by the horses coming out of the Crystal Water Handicap and suggested wagers plus my Pick 4 plays will reflect that.

WIN bet on (7) POSHSKY at 7-2 or better.

Main Exacta Box: 7-5.

Small Exactas: 7-2, 5-2. No reverse.

Race 10: Claiming $40,000 to $35,000, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and up

TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early pace that does not favor horses on the early lead or coming from off the pace. Macro Access will go straight to the front but will be pressed or hounded by Image of Joplin. Street Moxie, Tribal Tribute, and Back to Backo will get a position in first flight behind the early pace. In mid-pack I expect Professor Berns, Zinvoir, and Reflected Star to get the first jump on the closers. If a fast pace does materialize look for closers such as Yes Yes Yes, Lucky J Lane, Opsec, and Unusual Taste to be charging late.

There are not many times when I say I love the chances of a horse with the top last race Beyer Speed Figure but in this case I do. Zinvor (#6) is my longshot single to close out my Pick 4 on today’s Del Mar card and after reviewing his three turf routes in 2016 he looks to be a clear standout in the finale. He made his first start off a two hundred and eighty-seven day layoff on April 2 at Santa Anita and ran much better than his sixth-place finish or his 4-¼ length margin of defeat would indicate. He was forced to break from post position ten in an eleven horse field and was wide without any cover pass the stands for the first time and was forced even wide into the first turn when a rival floated him out. As the field reached the backstretch he continuing running wide chasing a quick early pace set by St. Joe Bay who set a half mile in 45.46 seconds. Jockey Victor Espinoza urged his mount forward while wide around the far turn and remained in the hunt to the top of the stretch before giving way to split the field. He covered sixty-three more feet than the winner according to Trakus and when you add the fast early pace he chased plus the long layoff this Tribal Rule gelding ran sneaky well in defeat. He shipped to Golden Gate and was reeled back in only fifteen days where he had the misfortune of trying to chase the speedy gate to wire winner Hidden Zensation who was allowed to dictated an uncontested early lead over a turf course where he is 4-3-1-0. The Adam Kitchingham trainee shorten up down the hill on May 19 and took advantage of a pace meltdown as he rallied from fifth to take over the lead at mid-stretch, and was caught by the closer Ebadan at the wire. In his last race, Crystal Water Handicap, he chased the longshot leader Spirit Rules from the rail into the first turn, dropped back to race second to last as the leader quicken the pace, continued to race towards the rear leaving the backstretch, moved up between rivals on the far turn, angled out, and raced with the leaders all the way mid-stretch and was out finished to the wire beaten 3-¼ lengths earning the field’s top last race 99 Beyer Speed Figure. The form of that race received a huge upgrade when third-place finisher, Ashleyluvsugar returned to finish second beaten a half-length in the Gr. 2 Eddie Read Handicap earning a 102 Beyer Speed Figure and the first two finishers are contenders in the California Dreamin Stakes. He has bounced back with three works including a B- move on July 16 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Moving smoothly enough for Kitchingman in 48.4. Seems fine in this 1/2 mile move.” Santiago Gonzalez remains in the irons and look for closing kick from mid-pack.

In exotics I will use Lucky Jane Lane (#4) who rallied from last behind an uncontested gate to wire winner in Batti Man on May 20 and did well to finish third beaten less than two-lengths. He will make his first start off the claim for Ron Ellis who wins at 22% (9-2-1-2) with his starters making their first start off the claim in a turf route. He enters this race with back to back B workouts per National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a sharp July 18 move that Andy caught him “Leveled out nice late with Prat in the saddle going 36.2, 101.3 finishing with plenty in reserve. Going well.” Macro Access (#8) who enters this race off a two race win streak and makes his first start off the claim for Jeff Bonde. He enjoyed a perfect trip on June 11 sitting in third behind two horse speed duel between Brave Act and Rye Patch early, angled outside for clear sailing at the leaders into the stretch, and won going away by 1-¾ lengths. The main concern about that win was the quality of rivals he defeated as five horses came back from that June 11 race and returned to run 5th, 6th, 9th, 5th, and 7th in their next start. Razor sharp B+ move on June 14 per Andy. Tribal Tribute (#10) enters this race off a perfect trip pace pressing win on June 16 where him and second place finisher ran 2nd and 1st at each call.

The Play:

WIN bet on (6) ZINVOR at 3-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 6-4, 6-8, 6-10. Small reverse for each.

Hidden Class Drop Highlights Oceanside Stakes on Opening Day

Friday July 15, 2016 - OPENING DAY OF DEL MAR!

Race 7: Allowance N1X/Optional Claiming $40,000, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and up

One cannot make an intelligent decision on this race without dissecting the likely pace scenario of this race. Westfest (#7) and J Serino (#5) both exit victories around two turns at Santa Anita but the former is quicker and should find himself on the lead. However horses such as Forest Blue (#3), Victory Call (#6), and Karma King (#8) are all stretching out from a sprint to a route and will be forwardly placed early. Our preference will be a horse that can settle just off the early flight of leaders and pounce.

Missing Groom (#4) will get the top preference as this California-bred Colonel John gelding has form over a fast Del Mar main track where he won his only start of 2015 over this identical surface and distance almost a year ago on July 24, 2015 where he parlayed a perfect stalk and pounce trip under Flavien Prat to win by 1-¾ lengths. The form of that victory was validated as the second-and-fourth place finishers came back to win earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 89 and 77 respectively in their next start. He was not seen for the rest of 2015 and made his return to the races 316 days later on June 4 at Santa Anita and was asked to go a 1-⅛ miles with only seven workouts all Los Alamitos. When you consider the depth of his layoff and running at 1-⅛ for the first time he ran very well to finish seventh beaten eight lengths. He showed good early speed only to be pressed hard by his pace rival Carlsbad Mountain through quick fractions of 22.83 and 46.87 seconds for a half mile. He shook free of Carlsbad Mountain midway on the far turn to lead but was immediately hooked by the eventual winner Ike Walker past the quarter pole, fought gamely to the eighth pole, and gave way. This was a super effort when you consider he raced inside through fast pace speed duel on a main track that strongly favored speed on the outside paths that the winner rode to victory while Missing Groom was hurt by the bias. He will now shorten up to his preferred one-mile distance (8/2-4-1) and has bounced out of his comeback with three blistering workouts at Los Alamitos including a 59.4 move on July 3 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant stated this “Free running type was moving fast to the top, coaxed home the last 1/4 in 24.4, finished in 59.4. Doing well since last.” He does not need the lead to win but can settle just off the pace and pounce as he did in his last win over this Del Mar main track. Juicy 8-1 on the morning line to start the opening day Late Pick 4.

Underneath in our exotics we will use Storm Comin Thru (#1) who also exits the same race as our top choice and can improve in his second race off the bench but appears shy of visiting the Winner’s Circle with nine seconds or thirds from twenty-three starts. Forest Blue (#3) who stretches out following a pair of in the money efforts in consecutive highly rated sprints to Drefong and Who’s Out in his last two starts. Victory Call (#6) will stretch out after two sprints and split the field on June 25 in the same highly rated Allowance N1X that Forest Blue exits.

The Play:

WIN bet on (4) MISSING GROOM at 6-1 or better.

Exacta box key: 4 over 1, 3, 6.

Pick 3: 1, 3, 4, 6 / 7 / 4, 8 = 4 x 1 x 2 x $2 = $16

Race 8: Oceanside Stakes, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds

The probable pace scenario of the traditional opening day feature appears straightforward on paper. Mr. Roary (#13) who has been on the lead at the first pace call in his last three turf routes will go straight for the lead but can find company for the early lead. Imperious One (#3) who disputed the lead and held second behind Path of David in last year’s Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita and fell on an uncontested lead on January 24 in a field that had no early speed. The Oceanside Stakes will have an honest early pace to set up those stalking or coming from the rear of the field.

My stand in this race is I am throwing out all the horses that exit the June 18 Rainbow Stakes at Santa Anita. Nine of the eleven entrants were separated by 4-¼ lengths in a visually unimpressive race and therefore I will not be using Arcatrue (#8), Mr. Roary, and Liam the Charmer (#14) on any of my suggested wagers. I am looking for a new face to win this race and one who can settle just off those early leaders and pounce.

Ebadan (#7) will take a hidden drop in class because he has faced three and up company in his last two starts and now will face only straight three-year olds. The Holy Roman Emperor bay made his United States debut as a new gelding on May 19 going 6-½ furlongs down the hillside turf course and unleashed a monster late kick to spring the 12-1 upset. In that race he trailed far back behind a three-horse speed battle early among Love My Bud, City of Vengeance, and Seventh Sense as those three battled through fractions of 21.82 and 44.60 seconds for a half mile. He was angled extremely wide while far back passing the dirt crossing and into the main turf course and closed widest of all to get up at the wire to win by a nose. Although this was not a terrific field as four horses behind Ebadan came back to lose their next start and six horses were separated by 2-½ lengths, this Neil Drysdale trainee should be given extra credit for being a three-year old that defeated older. He stretched out to two turns stepping up to face Allowance N2X on June 12 and ran a respectable third in a highly rated turf route won by Ohio (99 Beyer) who is a contender in Saturday’s Wickerr Stakes. He stalked the dueling leaders Professor Berns and Hay Dude in a comfortable spot on the rail in fourth early. He continued on the rail as the winner had a clear three wide sailing on the turn and into the stretch, angled out into the stretch, and ran evenly to the wire while out finished by Ohio and second-place finishers Itsinthepost. That third-place finisher earned him the top last race Beyer Speed Figure of 93 in this field and now meets an easier field versus the older Allowance N2X he faced last time out. He has bounced back with three workouts over the Santa Anita training track including a B workout on July 1 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated he displayed a “Nice late kick with Little Scotty in 39.2, 115.1. Going very well right now.” He has tactical speed to get an excellent trip behind the early leaders Mr. Roary and Imperious One and should be hint of a price with all the attention focused around Moonlight Drive and Dressed in Hermes as my BEST BET on the card.

Underneath in my exotics I will be using Dressed in Hermes (#9) who drops in class after facing two very strong fields in the Gr. 2 American Turf on Kentucky Derby day (produced three next time out winners) and Gr. 3 Pennine Ridge where the runner-up, Highland Sky, came back to finish second beaten a neck in the Gr. 1 Belmont Derby. Monster Bea (#12) who ran into a slow pace won by a pace pressing winner Keystoneforvictory on May 15 and the form of that race was flattered when the latter returned to win Forty Niner Stakes by 3-¼ lengths earning 85 Beyer Speed Figure. He exits a perfect trip ground saving stalk and pounce trip on June 10 and makes his first race for Peter Miller. On smaller tickets I will be using Moonlight Drive (#2) who makes his first start off a 151 day layoff. In the past five years, trainer Bob Baffert is 3-0-0-1 with turf routers returning off a 100 to 175 day layoff according to DRF Formulator.

The Play:

WIN bet on (7) EBADAN to WIN

Main Exacta: 7-9, 7-12. Small reverse.

Smaller Exacta: 7-2. No reverse.

Race 9: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and upward

This one-mile contest on the main track appears to have a straightforward pace scenario that could fall in the favor or horses running on or near the early lead. Got Even (#4) chased a very fast early pace for a half mile on May 6 and breaking from post position four with hustling rider Edwin Maldonado in the irons will go straight to the front but will be tracked or pressed by Chief of Staff (#10) early.

Despite trainer Bob Baffert ending the Santa Anita meet on a roll, I will be taking a stand against morning line favorite Dr. Door. The Lookin at Lucky colt will make his first start off a 244 day layoff trying two turns for the first time. According to DRF Formulator, that move has been a losing move for bettors. In the past five years he has had four starters return off layoffs of more than 180 days making their first route start with one winner. He has had three losses at $1.80-1, $4.00-1, and $3.90-1. I do not believe in taking a short price on a horse doing something new for the first time and despite the glowing reviews from National Turf’s Andy Harrington (pair of B works), I will let him beat me.

Got Even (#4) has always been known as a bridesmaid with nineteen combined seconds or thirds from forty-six career starts but this Stephen Got Even gelding has shown an affinity for Del Mar even though he does not win. He was second beaten a combined 1-¼ lengths in his previous two starts routing over this Del Mar main track and enters this race off a pair of off the board efforts. The seven-year old gelding finished sixth and last on January 22 in his final start for previous trainer Peter Miller and finished fifth beaten 4-¾ lengths in his first start off the Bill Spawr claim on May 6 at Santa Anita. He has had excuses in each defeat and with only one pace rival to deal with in this event I can expect Got Even to emerge victorious in his second start off the claim. He was sent off as the 4-1 third choice on January 22 but this front runner lost all chance to show his early speed at the start. He stumbled badly at the start to lose all chance, was carried extremely wide into the first turn and down the backstretch to chase the early pace, dropped back, and was eased through the stretch to finish last in a non-conclusive performance. He was claimed for $50,000 from that debacle by trainer Bill Spawr who freshen him up and returned from a one hundred and five day layoff on May 6 where a torrid early pace where he chased the speedy St. Joe Bay compromised his chances. Breaking from the rail, he established a pressured early pace through very quick fractions of 22.99 and 45.99 seconds for a half mile, dropped back to stalk that rival on the turn, continued chasing that rival all the way to mid-stretch, and tired in a race where the fast pace set up perfectly for the winner Big Tire who rallied from sixth and last to win by 1-¼ lengths. Although that race returned to be a sub-par event with the first four finishers returning to lose their next start, Got Even chased a blistering pace per the Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+4, +6). He comes back from a seventy-day layoff with six consecutive workouts including a better than looked six furlong move in 1:14.4 on July 9 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Old class sort turned in an improved spin going off slowly in 14.2, 27.0, 50.2 (23.2 mid 1/4), 115.1. Seems to be feeling good about himself these days,” and trainer Bill Spawr does SUPERB work with his dirt routers making their second start off the claim. According to DRF Formulator, Spawr is 5-3-0-0 (60%) in the past five years with dirt routers making their second start off the claim and his last two winners did not go favored: A Colt Following (January 2, 2016, $6.80-1) and Broadway Nika (March 25, 2016, $14.10-1). The presence of Edwin Maldonado suggest he will be on the lead and his only pace rival, Chief of Staff, tired badly on June 24 after pressing a very slow early pace per Moss Pace Figures for a half mile (-6, -5). I expect Got Even to go straight to the front and prove a very tough rival to run down at a juicy 6-1 on the morning line for a barn that does excellent work with trainees making their second start off the claim.

In my exotic wagers I will be using Souper Knight (#8) as my second preference. The Midnight Lute gelding defeated only two horses to the wire finishing fourth in a seven furlong $50,000 claiming event on June 18 but that sprint returned to be a productive “key” race. The winner Heir of Storm returned to finish second behind gate to wire comeback winner Masochistic on July 8 earning 94 Beyer Speed Figure and third-place finisher came back to win Allowance N2X with a career best 99 Beyer Speed Figure. Moreover, he will make his first start off the claim for Peter Miller on dirt. According to the Del Mar Guide, trainer Peter Miller has won at a gaudy 50% (12-6-0-0) the past five years with his starters making their first start off the claim on the Del Mar main track. Flavian Prat takes the call. Also I will use Westbrook (#7) who has managed to split the field in his last two sprints but has run evenly through the stretch to indicate he will handle the stretch out to one-mile and he exits highly rated Allowance N1X won by Who’s Out (97 Beyer) on June 25 at Santa Anita.

The Play:

WIN bet on (4) GOT EVEN at 6-1 or better.

WIN bet on (8) SOUPER KNIGHT at 5-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 4-8. Small reverse.

Small Exacta: 4-7. Smaller reverse.