Race 4: Allowance N2X/Optional Claiming $62,500, 7 Furlongs, Three and up
The TimeformUS pace projector sees this race similar to how I envision it on paper. Power Jam exiting a track record performance on July 10 to be loose on an uncontested early lead with his nearest pursuers being Who’s Out, Celebrated Talent, and Well Measured. Horses that will be sitting in mid-pack are Conquest Cobra and Alabama Tide. If the pace does materialize to be ultra quick look for Lilly’s Finale, Rocko’s Wheel, and The Gomper to pick up the pieces in the stretch.
The play against in this Allowance N2X is Who’s Out. He overcame an extremely wide trip (30 ft more than winner per Trakus) and a slow early pace per Moss Pace Figures (-5, -4) to finish second behind gate to wire winner Navy Hymn on June 5. However he had ideal conditions when he won by 2-½ lengths on June 25 at Santa Anita. He stalked in mid-pack fast pace speed duel, made a three wide move on the far turn, hit the front at mid-stretch, and won going away earning career best 97 Beyer Speed Figure. He stalked from the outside over a main track that strongly favored outside paths and benefited from a quick early pace for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+6, +1) and defeated a sub-par field. Five horses returned from that June 25 race to finish 3rd, 5th, 7th, 2nd, and 3rd in their next start. Today’s race shape favors horses on or near the lead and could be compromised by today’s pace scenario at what looks to be a short price for Jerry Hollendorfer.
The pace projector and on paper sees this race favoring horses on or near the early lead for a horse such as morning line favorite Power Jam (#2) but I was visually impressed on the adversity Conquest Cobra (#3) overcame when he won at this same class level on July 9 going one-mile at Santa Anita. The Pioneerof the Nile gelding has surprised bettors when they least expect it finishing in the money in his previous three starts. He was an ultra game second to the favored winner, Tribal Jewel, on June 18 finishing 7-¾ lengths in front of the rest of the field where he disputed a moderate early pace for the first half mile according to Moss Pace Figures. He turned back to seven furlongs on June 18 where he was out-sprinted for the early lead by the eventual gate to wire winner Heir of Storm who set a very quick early pace for the first half mile according to Moss Pace Figures (+7, +3), rode the rail around the far turn as jockey Alonso Quinonez was urging his mount to go forward and just missed second in a highly rated race (97 Beyer Speed Figure). The strength of that race was confirmed when the winner returned to run second to the gate to wire winner Masochistic on July 8 earning a 94 Beyer Speed Figure and second-place finisher, Karma King, returned to run second in Allowance N1X on July 15 here at Del Mar earning a 87 Beyer Speed Figure. He stretched back out to one-mile, moved up to the Allowance N2X class level while risked for a $62,500 claiming price, and switched to the apprentice Chad Lindsay on July 9 and won more impressive than the half-length margin of victory would suggest. He stalked the pace in between rivals around the first turn, eased out into the three path racing down the backstretch as the leader Batti Man was allowed to set a very slow early pace for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-4, 0). He moved up three wide around the far turn, lost contact with the leader at the heads of the stretch but put in a strong rally inside the final furlong to win by half length despite Chad Lindsay losing his whip inside the final sixteenth of a mile. He earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure which is the second highest last race speed figure in this field and not only did he make his rally into the teeth of a slow pace but also lost ground throughout as he covered 30ft and 9ft more respectively than the second and third-place finishers. He returns at the same class level shortening up from a route to a sprint a 23% winning move (11-for-48) per DRF Formulator the past five years. The Vladimir Cerin trainee should be a generous price with all the attention focused on two morning line favorites: Power Jam and Who’s Out and is perfectly fine as this bay gelding was second at 26-1 and won his last start at 9-1.
In my exotics I will look to the morning line favorite, Power Jam (#2) as the projected pacesetter in a race that favors horses with his running style. The Concord Point gray returned from a 245-day layoff on closing day of the spring-summer Santa Anita meet and broke the track record for 5-½ furlongs. In that race he sharply to take over the lead soon after the lead and made an easy early lead with no early pressure from his pace rival Rocket Fuel as he set moderate fractions for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures over a very glib surface (-2, -3). He met a challenge from Rocket Fuel at mid-stretch, turned him away, and kicked clear to win by 1-¾ lengths earning the field’s highest last race 103 Beyer Speed Figure. Some would suggest he could regress or “bounce” in his second start following the long layoff but trainer Bob Baffert’s starters do not regress after a win off the layoff. According to DRF Formulator he wins at a gaudy 32% (8-for-25) the past five years with horses making their second start off the layoff in a dirt sprint following a win in their last start. Moreover, National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave him a B for his half mile spin in 48.4 over this main track on July 22 that Andy commented “Smooth power breezing best inside a mate in 24.2, 48.4 out in 101.1. Snappy right back.” Regular rider Stewart Elliott is back in the irons and should be loose on the lead and prove an elusive target for this rivals to catch.
The Play: I’m looking to beat Who’s Out from finishing either first or second and focusing my attention around Power Jam and Conquest Cobra. The latter I expect should be a square price even though I made him 4-1 on my morning line and made Power Jam my 2-1 morning line favorite.
WIN bet on (3) CONQUEST COBRA to WIN at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta: 2-1. Small reverse.
Race 5: Allowance N1X, 5 Furlongs Turf, Three-year olds and up
The TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at a pace that does not favor a specific running style. However I do envision this race shaping up to be a contested early battle as Big Finish, Seventh Sense, and Roy H with blinkers back on to contest the early lead. Horses that should be sitting just off these leaders are One More Roll, Reasonable Pride, and Annie’s Candy. Morning line favorite Tribalist will be out-sprinted for the early lead with TimeformUS pace projector seeing him in mid-pack ahead of closer’s such as Hot Market and Eric the Trojan.
My stand in this race is against morning line favorite Tribalist. I understand that this gelding has finished no worse than second in two starts on turf including his last victory over this same Jimmy Durante turf course and distance. The biggest issue is his soundness. This will be only his third start in two years and plus his lone win on this course and distance happen when he was able to shake loose on an uncontested early lead. With horses such as Big Finish, Seventh Sense, and Roy H having more early speed than him he projects to be further off the pace. The presence of Victor Espinoza promises to be an underlay price.
The surface is the biggest question but the price will compensate for the risk as Annie’s Candy (#8) is my top choice after two better than looked efforts this year. As a two-year old, this Peter Miller trainee ran behind subsequent Eclipse Award winning Juvenile and eventual Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist three times including finishing second beaten a head in his second career start. The dark bay or brown gelding returned from a 259-day layoff on June 5 in his first start as three-year old and he ran much better than the “Bit off rail, lost 2nd,” comment in your Daily Racing Form. In that race, the Peter Miller trainee stalked the loose leader and eventual winner Navy Hymn from the inside as that rival was able to get away with very soft early pace for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-5, -4). He split rivals into the stretch and made a small run at the uncontested gate to wire winner and was no match losing second on the wire. Although the winner earned only an 88 Beyer Speed Figure, the subsequent performances of the horses behind him confirm that this Allowance N1X sprint was a strong race. The second-place finisher Who’s Out returned on June 25 to win by 2-½ lengths earning a 97 Beyer Speed Figure and the fourth-place finisher G.A. Betting returned to win $50,000 claiming event by 7-¼ lengths earning career best 92 Beyer Speed Figure. The performances of the also-rans in this race plus the chasing a loose leader off a lengthy layoff makes Annie’s Candy third-place finish a better than looked performance. He was gelded after that comeback effort and made his second start following lengthy layoff on July 10 and managed to defeat more than half the field beaten 9-¼ lengths behind the gate to wire winner Power Jam. A closer inspection of this reveals another sneaky good effort in defeat that is not described in his margin of defeat. According to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, Annie’s Candy “raced well off the pace while widest down the backside, angled to race three- deep into and around the far turn, one-paced in the drive.” He covered 29 feet more than the winner Power Jam according to Trakus and was very wide trying to run down a loose leader who was able to set a moderate pace over a very glib surface per Moss Pace Figures (-2, -3). The wide journey plus the moderate to slow pace makes Annie’s Candy’s effort better than his 9-¼ length margin of defeat in a highly rated Allowance N1X (103 Beyer Speed Figure). He will make his third start into his form cycle and showed he is sharp for his return to Del Mar with a half mile spin in 47.3 that was tied for the fastest move on July 23 with the next fastest move being a full second slower. He should fall into an absolute perfect trip tucked in behind the three aforementioned rivals that will be going for the early lead and get first run into the stretch. Norberto Arroyo Jr. takes over in the irons and his two defeats by a combined margin of 14-¾ lengths will ensure a square price.
In my exotics I will spread using some nice prices but none higher than our second preference Big Finish (#3) at 20-1 on the morning line. This Congrats gelding managed to hit the board only once in four starts in Southern California and that happen in a $80,000 maiden claiming event in his third start over this Del Mar main track. After dueling head and head with the favored winner Toews on Ice in the Speakeasy Stakes on October 18 at Santa Anita he returned to Turf Paradise where he destroyed an overmatched field by 11-¾ lengths as the 1-5 post time favorite. The Molly Pearson trainee returned as a new gelding in his first start as a three-year old on June 5 at Santa Anita where he finished last beaten sixteen lengths behind the gate to wire winner Navy Hymn. In his first race without blinkers and off a 200-day layoff, the bay gelding “Broke awkwardly to lose his best chance, pulled his way forward between horses to stalk the pace, dropped back around the far turn, faded to the rear,” according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. He has plenty of early speed but only flashed a brief moment of it because of the slow early start. As already mentioned with Annie’s Candy this June 5 event returned to be a productive event with the second- and-fourth-place finishers returning to win earning career best 97 and 92 Beyer Speed Figures respectively. He has returned with five workouts including a half mile spin in 49.1 on July 16 here at Del Mar that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave it a faster spin in this B+ move. Andy Harrington stated he “Really caught the eye in this faster than given 24.0, 47.0 out huge in 59.1. Loads of speed here; Pedroza up.” From post position three and with hustling tactics employed at the start, look for Big Finish to be the one to lead going into the first turn and could be very brave for a barn whose winners are not easy to find as her four wins here at Del Mar the past five years range from 5-1 (Myrna Lou, August 6, 2014) to 42-1 (Miss Scatalicious, August 18, 2013). One More Roll (#4) is projected to get a similar trip as our top choice tucked in behind the early speed and get first run if the pace falls apart. The Awesome Gambler had the misfortune of running into next time out winner DreFong on May 30 when he ran a distant third behind that impressive winner and split the field behind the track record performance of Power Jam on July 10 at Santa Anita. The Bill Spawr trainee does not find any rivals with their speed or class in this event and lures Mike Smith in the irons. Seventh Sense (#7) is a full sibling to Reneesgotzip who finished in the money twice in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. This City Zip colt part of a three-horse speed duel on May 19 down the hill that completely fell apart for the closers as the first five finishers rallied from 9th, 5th, 4th, 6th, and 8th after the first quarter of a mile. His recent drills according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington suggest he is better than his recent record suggest and is drawn outside of his main pace rival Big Finish for a pace prompting trip under Martin Garcia.
The Play: I will focus my wagers around beating morning line favorite Tribalist and looking for Annie’s Candy to finish first or second in my suggested exacta plays. In addition to a WIN bet on our top choice I will also recommend a WIN wager on our second preference Big Finish who will be higher than my suggested odds of 12-1 for a barn that surprises bettors the past five years at Del Mar.
WIN bet on (3) BIG FINISH at 12-1 or better.
WIN bet on (8) ANNIE’S CANDY at 6-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 8-3, 8-4, 8-7. Small reverse for each.
Race 7: Allowance N1X/Optional Claiming $40,000, 1-Mile, Fillies and mares
On paper and according to TimeformUS pace projector the early pace of this one-mile event will not only be contested but also very fast. From the outside post position, Swissarella will go straight to the front but will be hounded or pressed by Distinguishable and Big Break and those three will ensure a quick early pace for those sitting in mid-pack or rallying from well off the pace. The two horses that will get first run on the speed if it does collapse will be Fervent Femme and Gift of a Star. Those that will be coming from mid-pack are Take It Easyplease and Gracie Ragazza. In behind those two that will be coming on late are Audacious Angel, Desert Madam, and Backintheacademy.
My play against in this race will focus on the of the July 8 Starter Handicap won by Desert Madam. The winner earned career best 91 Beyer Speed Figure and did so under optimal conditions where she was allowed an uncontested early lead through a very slow early pace for the first half mile according to Moss Pace Figures (-12, -10) and she and her closest rival Take It Easyplease ran 1st and 2nd around the race track. The pace will be swift and Desert Madam will not find the early lead where she will be further off the pace than last time according to TimeformUS pace projector and will be a play against despite the B six furlong move per National Turf’s Andy Harrington on July 24 in 1:13.2.
A very fast early pace with the three aforementioned speed rivals have either set or pressed above average early paces for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures in their recent starts and that will set it up perfectly for our top choice Gracie Ragazza (#5). This daughter of Eddington loves to win races with a excellent record of 18/5-2-3 and she has visited the winner’s circle in two of her last three starts under today’s jockey Kent Desormeaux. Her only debacle happen on May 20 at Santa Anita where she ran a dismal seventh beaten 15-½ lengths at odds of 28-1. According to the Daily Racing Form trouble comment she raced “4wd into lane, weaken,” but Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes described a more troubled trip. Forced to break from post position eight in an eight horse field she “Wide into the first turn, tracked in midpack early on the backstretch, outrun around the far turn, drifted out into the lane, fell far back.” She covered 44 feet more than the winner Big Book per Trakus and one can draw a line through this race because of the very wide trip. The Mark Glatt trainee drop one level in class to $32,000 on June 26 and was reunited with winning rider Kent Desormeaux and she enjoyed a perfect trip and ride to score by three-lengths earning a career best 83 Beyer Speed Figure which is the third highest last race speed figure in this field. In that race, the dark bay or brown filly track the early lead of Big Break in good position on the rail behind a very slow early pace for a half mile set by the latter per the Moss Pace Figures (-8, -6). She moved up along the rail around the far turn, came out with Big Break as her lone rival in front of her, blew by her, and won handily as the 7-2 third choice in the field of six rivals. The form of this race was flattered somewhat as two rivals: Avicii and Warren’s Jen Fizz, came back to finish second in their next start. She had a clear trip with the benefit of a main track that strongly favored inside paths on June 26. Despite benefiting from a advantageous conditions, she moves up in a race where she cannot be claimed for the RED HOT Mark Glatt barn who since last Saturday has a record of 6-4-0-1 with his starters and this mare should workout a similar setup as her victory on April 16 where she will be no more than 2-½ to 3 lengths off the lead down the backstretch and blast by her rivals to recorded her third victory this year. She recorded a B- move per Andy Harrington to suggest she has held her form and hopefully the betting public will fall in love with the speed figures of the two morning line favorites where dark bay or brown mare can go off at a hint of a price.
In my exotics I will focus on those that will get first run on the early speed or coming from off the pace. Gift of a Star (#4) made her first start on the main track in nine starts on July 8 and chased that rapid early pace set by Swissarella early, moved up to challenge for the lead at mid-stretch, and edged rival for second no match behind the opportunistic closer Barbara Beatrice. A pair of B- moves including her 48 flat move under jockey Gary Stevens according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington indicate she fits right back at this class level and distance. Backintheacademy (#12) big longshot has a chance especially since the projected race shape will be fast. She ran better than the margin of defeat would indicate in the Gr. 3 Adoration Stakes on May 8 where she made a run into the teeth of a very slow early pace and flattened out to finish last behind the champion Beholder. In her next start on June 12 she lost all chance when she bobbled sharply at the start. Last time out she was part of the pace meltdown that picked up the pieces for third and missed second by three-quarters of a length behind Gift of a Star. If the fast pace that TimeformUS anticipates it will collapse and Backintheacademy will motor late at a square price. Take It Easyplease (#1) will strictly be used underneath only as she part of the slow pace on July 8 that saw the first two finishers run 1st and 2nd around the racetrack. The bay filly does have a habit of finishing second or third with eight combined in the money efforts from eighteen starts.
The Play: Hoping this race will play out on paper as it does on the race track as a pace meltdown will be perfect for not only my top choice Gracie Ragazza but also my two horses that I will use underneath in Gift of a Star and longshot Backintheacademy. Also I will single Gracie Ragazza in my Pick 3 play that includes Beholder in the Clement Hirsch and my BEST BET in Race 9.
WIN bet on (5) GRACIE RAGAZZA at 7-2 or better.
Main Exacta Box key: 5 / 4, 12.
Small Exactas: 5-1. No reverse.
$2 Pick 3: 5 / 1, 2 / 1, 2 = 1 x 2 x 2 x $2 = $8
$2 Pick 3: 4, 5, 12 / 1 / 1, 2 = 3 x 1 x 2 x $2 = $12
$2 Pick 3: 4, 5, 12 / 1, 2 / 2 = 3 x 2 x 1 x $2 = $12
Total Wager: $32
Race 9: Starter Allowance, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and up
The TimeformUS pace projector envisions the early pace of this race not favoring a specific running style. The morning line favorite Foray will go straight to the front and set the early pace while being chased early by Seattle Boom. Horses that look to pounce and get first run on the early speed are Woody’s Folly and Pete’s Play Call. Royalist and Bronzino will be charging from mid-pack as those behind them include Sea Cat, Broken Up, and Materialistic that hope a fast pace develops for their late kick.
Trainer John Sadler is another trainer enjoying a fine past week here at Del Mar. Since July 23, his starters are 8-2-0-2 and both of those victories were for his main client Hronis Racing LLC. They start the morning line favorite Foray who will make his first start for these connections in this Starter Allowance turf route a class level he fits. However according to DRF Formulator, in the past five years trainer John Sadler and Hronis Racing LLC are 4-0-0-1 with new acquisitions making their first start in a turf route. In addition, his six-length margin of defeat and the 75 Beyer Speed Figure was not flattered by the subsequent performances of the horses behind him in that June 20 maiden victory. Six horses behind Foray came out of that race to run 4th, 9th, 5th, 6th, 10th, and 5th. His victory was the result of an uncontested lead versus a very weak field. I believe he will lead as far as he can but will be swallowed up by my top choice.
I am big believer in a consistent and active Horses to Watch list and Bronzino (#2) made my Horses to Watch list for the second time after finding impossible trouble at this class level and one-mile distance on turf on June 19 at Santa Anita. The French-bred gelding initially made my Horses to Watch list on March 20 in his United States debut where his trouble comment in the Daily Racing Form “Split foes ¼, edged 2nd,” does him no justice to the extent of trouble he encountered. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, Bronzino “angled in to race midpack two-deep, threw his head with his mouth wide open around the first turn, picked it up past the half-mile pole, split horses leaving the far turn and into the lane, finished decently, lost the photo for the place.” The form of this Starter Allowance event was flattered when the winner Seedsandstemsagain return to win (via disqualification) a California-bred Allowance N1X on May 15 with a 86 Beyer Speed Figure and tenth-place finisher Popsracer returned to win $10,500 N2L at Golden Gate with a 75 Beyer Speed Figure. He tried the main track for the first time on May 21 off a sixty-two day layoff and one can draw a line through this race because he lost all chance when he stumbled at the start. The Tom Bell trainee returned to his preferred surface turf and he encountered second consecutive tough trip under jockey Brice Blanc where once again the trouble comment in the Daily Racing Form “Lacked room 1/8th inside,” does not accurately describe his trouble. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, Bronzino “bobbled a bit at the start to trail, gained inside leaving the backstretch, passed horses around the far turn, cut the corner to move closer into the stretch, was full of run while stuck behind horses, angled out and had no room passing midstretch, checked and dropped back, angled down to the rail deep stretch, quickened noticeably, shifted out near the wire, finished fastest, too late.” He will make his third start off the layoff and gets significant rider upgrade to Del Mar’s leading rider Flavien Prat who leads the jockey standings with seven turf wins. In addition, he has trained in smart fashion for his return including a B move on the Jimmy Durante turf course that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Breezed with some style with Prat aboard in 39.3, 104.0 smooth to the line. Moving forward down here.” He will get sufficient pace to set up for his late kick as morning line favorite Foray will go straight to the lead and with a clean ground saving trip under the meets leading rider, I expect Bronzino to run down the pacesetter and kick clear as my BEST BET on Saturday’s Del Mar card.
In my exotics I will recommend only one horse to complete my exacta and that horse is drawn directly inside of our top choice. Royalist (#1) has been an improved race horse ever since trainer Vann Belvoir removed the blinkers on March 26. He had a very troubled trip in that March 26 event and he shipped to Golden Gate on May 1 versus a Allowance N1X California-bred company and an ill advised ride by jockey Tyler Baze cost him. In that race he stalked the early pace set by the leader American Aristocat early and was moved too soon to attack the leader after the first half mile and dueled with that rival head and head on the far turn, poked his head in front at 1/8th pole, and gave way actually losing second to the pacesetter as those two were collared by the opportunistic closer Cowboy. He switched to Rafael Bejarano for the first time on May 29 and he was simply second best behind the winner Deep Consideration in a race that has proven to be very production. He stalked a rapid pace in ideal position along the rail as pacesetter Boone Docks blazed a half mile in 45.63 seconds. He continued biding his time on the rail on the far turn as favorite Gunslinger went after the pacesetter into the stretch, Royalist split rivals and chased home the 14-1 longshot winner Deep Consideration finishing 2-¼ lengths in front of the rest of the field that includes next time out winners Gunslinger and Boone Docks. He returns off a sixty-two day layoff with six workouts capped off a sharp 1:00 ⅗ five furlong move on July 24 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Last 1/4 mile in 23.3 with another worker trying hard late. Appears willing down here.” He and our top choice will benefit from a fast pace if morning line favorite Foray elects to go for the lead and is pressed by Seattle Boom early.
The Play: If we are live in our Pick 3 ending with this race I will not recommend a WIN wager on BRONZINO. Instead I look to make my money in this race throwing out the probable pacesetter Foray and look in a cold exacta box between our top two choices.
Main Exacta Box: 1-2.
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