Gregorian Chant Looks To Rebound in the Oceanside Stakes

Race 2: (4) MORSE CODE

The meet’s first turf event should have an honest to fast early pace scenario for those stalking or coming from well off the pace. VIA EGNATIA who lead going gate to wire in his most recent victory will go straight to the front under hustling rider Edwin Maldonado and DR. TROUTMAN has been on the lead at the first call (half mile mark) in his turf route races in four of his last six starts. Those two should engage in a fast pace that TimeformUS pace projector predicts and I want a horse that can get first run on closers such as morning line favorite United and fellow closers Ward N’ Jerry and Starting Bloc. 

MORSE CODE won his first start over this Del Mar turf course on the last race of the Pacific Classic day of last year with a perfect stalk and pounce trip versus a suspect field of Allowance N1X rivals that only produced one next out winner and five others that ran second or third in their next start. He returned off a 96-day hiatus on November 22 here at Del Mar going 1-⅜ miles where he saved ground around all three turns, angled out for the drive and failed to muster a serious rally finishing sixth beaten three-lengths. He turned back to one-mile in his first start of this year and finished fast closing fourth beaten three-quarters of a length in a race where the race shape favored horses on or near the front end as the first two finishers, Keep Quiet and Count Alexander ran around the racetrack second and first throughout and this son of Tapit finished in a blanket photo for the minor placings. In his next start on February 17, he raced was parked three-wide racing in mid-pack for the first half mile, raced even wider on the far turn and into the stretch, and was wrapped up to the wire to finish seventh beaten 6-¼ lengths. One can draw a line through his dirt debacle on March 30 as he was off the board in three previous fast main track efforts. The Richard Baltas trainee returned to turf on May 25 in the Gr. 2 Charles Whittingham Stakes and he finished fifth beaten only 1-½ lengths behind his stablemate Marckie’s Water but this was a good effort in defeat considering he abandon his traditional stalk and pounce style to dispute the early pace. In this race, he disputed the pace with pace rival Tiz a Runner through quick fractions for the distance that saw the mile mark coded red by TimeformUS. He put away that pace rival towards mid-stretch and hung in tough to the final sixteenth of a mile before being collared by the closers towards the wire to earn the field’s highest last race 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure and second highest last race 92 Beyer Speed Figure. He makes a realistic drop into this Allowance N2X and has returned with five works over the Santa Anita training track. He drops eight pounds from his previous start with apprentice Jorge Velez in the irons and should revert to his stalking style with his stable mate VIA EGNATIA going for the early lead and if he can build on his effort in the Whittingham Stakes he can spring the minor upset. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (4) MORSE CODE

Race 8: (8) GREGORIAN CHANT (GB) 

The opening day feature Oceanside Stakes should feature an honest pace. The sprinter stretching out LEGENDS OF WAR will go for the early lead but based on his previous form this Scat Daddy will be best around one turn and had advantageous pace scenario featuring blue coded TimeformUS pace figures on May 27 and weakened to third. The pace pressure will come from CITY RAGE who broke his maiden in gate to wire fashion on June 22 where he set a quick pace for the first half quarter of a mile and then was able to rate kindly on the front end through the next half mile and sprinted clear to win by 1-¾ lengths. These two horses should establish pace honest enough where a closer that was compromised by a lack of speed in his previous start should appreciate. 

GREGORIAN CHANT (GB) has always shown talent in each of his first two starts despite being tardy at the gate. He broke his maiden over the Poly Track at Dundalk in Ireland in his career debut by 1-¼ lengths where the Timeform European Analyst stated “missed the break, in rear, still plenty to do entering straight, came wide, stayed on to lead well inside final 1f, hung left, well on top finish; open to improvement.” The Gregorian colt was privately purchased by Slam Dunk Racing and partners and made his North American debut on May 5 at Santa Anita and was visually impressive overcoming tardy start and very slow pace to win by 2-¼ lengths. In that race, he veered out sharply at the start to be away dead last and trailed early behind a very slow early pace disputed by Contagion and Swap Souffle. He reached into contention into the far turn, swept by the two leaders into the stretch, and kicked clear defeating a sub-par field as three horses behind him returned to finish off the board and one horse returned to finish third. Despite the weak field, the visual impression of the victory made him the 6-5 post time favorite in the Cinema Stakes on June 2 and he finished a lackluster fourth beaten 2-¼ lengths behind the second Neptune’s Storm. However, one can draw a line through this race because of the addition of blinkers and the lack of early speed created a race flow in the Cinema Stakes that favored horses on or near the early lead. He broke a step slow in that race, trailed early through the first half mile as King of Speed, eventual winner Neptune’s Storm, and Parsimony raced on or near early pace that featured blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. Despite the slow pace, GREGORIAN CHANT moved forward three wide on the far turn, had a clear run into the stretch, and ran evenly towards the wire to earn career best 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Phil D’ Amato trainee removes the blinkers with four workouts over the Santa Anita training track including five furlong move on July 8 in 1:03 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Franco up; grand looker breezed with a fellow turfer in this smooth training track move. Upside clearly still here.” Although top rider Flavien Prat elects to ride Jasikan, jockey Giovanni Franco takes over in the irons and he should drop over to get cover behind an honest pace between City of Rage and Legend’s of War and produce one late run at a hint of a price.  

Wagering Strategy: My $50 Play of the Day will be a Daily Double using GREGORIAN CHANT and my second preference (3) JASIKAN to my Horse of the Day, Coil Me Home, in the 9th. Below please my Daily Double strategy:

$35 Daily Double: (8) GREGORIAN CHANT with (3) COIL ME HOME 

$15 Daily Double: (3) JASIKAN with (3) COIL ME HOME

Total Wager: $50  

Race 9: (3) COIL ME HOME 

This competitive seven furlong Allowance N1X event should have a spirited early pace with the two entrants with early speed fast enough to have run red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their recent starts. The main pace comes from Midwest shipper, JACK VAN BERG, who has pressed or lead after the first call five of his last five starts and in his most recent start was less than two-lengths behind red coded TimeformUS pace figures. Morning line favorite, KING JACK, was part of the early pace pressing the early pace three wide in the clear and won impressively over Morning Snow who won with an improved 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. Now drawn inside of his main rival, he could get hooked into a pressured pace battle with Jack Van Berg ensuring a fast pace These two entrants should establish a lively pace scenario for a closer who will benefit from this enervating pace. 

COIL ME HOME has been known in his ten race career as a bridesmaid with six seconds or thirds and has not seen the Winner’s Circle since December 9, 2018 at Los Alamitos. His two most recent starts indicate that this California-bred son of Coil is rounding into form. He was defeated as the second choice on May 4 at Santa Anita where this Richard Baltas trainee flashed unusual early speed to contest the early pace with the favored Flagstaff and Candy Cornell early. Those three remained locked into a three-horse speed duel all the way past the quarter pole and into the stretch when COIL ME HOME weakened in the final sixteenth to be third earning a career best and competitive 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure and he finished in front of fourth-place finisher, California Street, who came back to win Allowance N1X on June 22 with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He returned 42-days later and faced California-bred company in Thor's Echo Stakes on June 15 at Santa Anita and was a distant second behind the pace pressing winner Desert Law. A closer inspection of this effort reveals he ran a lot better than his 6-¼ length margin of defeat based on the slow pace the winner was able to press the speed favoring nature of the main track that afternoon. He reverted to his usual closing style trailing the field early as the leader Smiling Angelo and eventual winner Desert Law were able to establish a very slow early pace as the first half mile was colored by blue by TimeformUS pace figures. He trailed the field around the turn, angled out into the stretch, and finished very well to be a distant second against the race shape. Not only was his rally compromised by the slow pace but also speed favoring main track as all four dirt sprints were won by horses on the lead or within one length off the lead at the first pace call and COIL ME HOME rallied against race flow and speed bias in dirt sprints. He has bounced back with three workouts including five furlong move in 1:02 ⅕ on July 6 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Responded willingly with Prat aboard reaching in blinkers for Baltas in 25.1, 102.0. Looks good from here.” He is reunited with Flavien Prat who was aboard his previous win. More importantly, he will find early speed from the likes of JACK VAN BERG, and KING JACK to ensure his late kick will be flattered from the expected race flow. He should be a price considering his lack of winning record and lack of recent victory. 

Wagering Strategy: 

WIN bet on (3) COIL ME HOME 

Main Exacta: 3-2, 3-6. Small reverse for each. 

Two Year Olds and Top Class Turf Racing Highlight Del Mar's Opening Day

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Two-year old Fillies

There is not enough data to make a TimeformUS pace projector for this race but there is plenty of pedigree, workout information, and trainer angles found in Formulator to make this race a playable race in the first leg of the opening day Pick 6 and final leg of the meets first Pick 5.

Two highly regarded first time starters that were the highest priced by their respective stallions will be the focus of my play in this excellent maiden race. JUST A SMIDGE (#8) will get the top preference based on trainer Bob Baffert’s superb record of debuting two-year old maidens here at Del Mar, the competitive bidding at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Two-year old in training sale, and glowing workout reports from National Turf’s Andy Harrington gives her the slight edge over Varanasi. The daughter of thirteen-percent debut sire Into Mischief was part of a heated auction at the May Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Two-year old in training sale where the hammer closed at $425,000 which was tied as the highest price two-year old by Into Mischief at the sale and was tied for sixth overall in the highest priced two-year olds sold at the sale. Trainer Bob Baffert has already sent out two debuting maiden two-year olds to win this year and both went off as the favorite: Diamondsandpearls (July 2, 1-2, 70 Beyer Speed Figure) and Zulfikhar (July 7, 3-5, 82 Beyer Speed Figure). However, Del Mar is where trainer Bob Baffert unleashes his best two-year olds. In the past five years, he has won 28% clip with debuting two-year olds in a maiden special weight dirt sprint here at Del Mar and last summer had FIVE two-year olds that made their debut a winning one here at Del Mar including American Cleopatra who went off at 7-1 in her debut. She comes into her debut with three consecutive B works from National Turf’s Andy Harrington but it is his comments about her works that really caught my attention. She worked five furlongs from the gate in 59.2 where she flashed “Nice speed from the blocks inside speedy older barn mate Pretty Owl trying hard while a bit the second best in 23.4, 46.4, 59.4. Plenty of grit here,” and concluded her work tab with another five furlong move from the gate in 1:00 ⅕ where she “Broke well waiting on older barn mate Zipman until ready, drawing clear in 23.4, 47.1, 59.4. Handy roan.” Drawn outside with plenty of early speed from the gate to be forward factor, she is definite must use and appears ready to roll from the box.

Trainer Richard Mandella has won only once in his previous five starters that were two-year olds that made there debuting sprinting on the Del Mar main track, but VARANASI (#3) checks all the boxes that I would look for in a debut winning profile. She cost $385,000 at the September 2016 yearling sales and that price was the highest price of the fifty-three colts or fillies by Jimmy Creed at the sale. Moreover, she owns a terrific win early pedigree as her dam, Yearly Report, broke her maiden in her career debut by four-lengths earning 87 Beyer Speed Figure and she has passed that winning habit to her foals. She has produced three winners from five starters including Condo Commando who won three of four starts as a two-year old including the Grade I Spinaway. The sire Jimmy Creed is off to a fast start as a stallion with six winners from seventeen starters but more importantly THREE of them won their career debut: Wall of Compassion (July 7, 2017, $5.80-1), Spectator (June 23, 2017, $9.80-1), and Cajun Creed (June 17, 2017, $1.10-1). She enters this race with four consecutive B works according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington as with Just A Smidge, the comments from Andy really caught my attention. She worked five furlongs in 1:01.3 on July 12 where Andy caught her working with “Prat up; waited mid-stretch on a mate moving away in 36.3, 101.3 out well in 114.2. Looks fit for debut.”

The Play: These two are the second and third choices on the morning line and if you are playing the Pick 5 or starting the Pick 6 I will recommend using these two horses. For the purposes of betting this race I will only recommend an Exacta box between my top two choices.

Main Exacta Box: 3, 8

Race 6: Allowance N2X, 1-⅛ Miles Turf, Fillies and mares

TimeformUS pace projector predicts this race will not favor a specific running style but a glance at the likely pace sees the horse drawn on the rail, Bert’s Melody, on an uncontested early lead with horses such as Dynamic Misses K and Moonless Sky chasing Bert’s Melody in the first flight. Family Meeting, Hiking, and Shehastheritestuff will be charging with their late run in the stretch.

Nodiac owns the field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure (89) and Hiking owns the top last race TimeformUS Speed Figure (113) with Family Meeting and Nodiac own the second highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure (112). Bert’s Melody owns the field’s highest early pace rating in the field (108) and Family Meeting owns the field’s highest late pace rating (110) in the field.

When I handicap this race it boils down to two horses with contrasting running style as my top choice will be on the front end and my second choice will be charging from off the pace with a big late kick. On paper, BERT’S MELODY (#1), looks terrible on form. After all, she has been defeated by a combined twenty-six and half lengths in her last two starts and stopped badly in her most recent start where jockey Brice Blanc eased her to the wire. Despite those defeats, the circumstances surrounding each defeat contributed to her poor performances and now in her third start of 2017 this daughter Bertrando should be set to rebound to a winning performance as she is projected to be loose on an uncontested lead. After she won last year’s edition of the Fran’s Valentine Stakes, she was sent to the sidelines and did not run for the remainder of 2016. She returned from a 294-day layoff in the Irish O’Brien Stakes where she was running down the hill for the third time and she was winless in two previous tries over that layout suggesting that return race was designed as prep to stretch out to two turns. She showed her early speed but was out-sprinted for the lead by the dueling leaders Emmy and I and favored Enola Gray. She continued tracking the favored winner down the hill before being in an all out drive crossing the dirt into the main turf course and was wrapped up in the stretch finishing thirteen and three-quarter lengths behind Enola Gray who returned two starts later to win the Grade III Wilshire Handicap with a 99 Beyer Speed Figure and 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Sean McCarthy trainee returned from a brief eighty-five day layoff on June 11 where she stretched out to one-mile and she delivered another sub-par performance finishing twelve and three-quarter lengths behind opportunistic stalking winner Corps De Ballet. This defeat can be contributed to being involved in a fast pace speed duel with two other one dimensional front runners. She broke quickly and set the pace into the first turn with pressure from one of the front runners Ticaboo and never got a breather as the other front runner Mangita pressured her as those two rivals tore through fractions of 23.01, 45.98, and six furlongs in 1:09.93 seconds. When the field reached the top of the stretch, Bert’s Melody was finished and was wisely wrapped up towards the wire. She will now make her second race off the layoff and bounced back with two works including an excellent five furlong move on July 13 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “ Relaxed spin through the lane after showing her usual speed with Blanc up in 34.4, 100.4. Always dangerous early gas.” More importantly, Ticaboo and Mangita, the two front runners that pressed her through those fast fractions on June 11 are not entered and she should be loose on an uncontested lead through more relaxed fractions. If allowed to dictate her own terms on the front end she will be tough rival to run down at a distance she has yet to finish no worse than second in two starts.

My second choice FAMILY MEETING (#3) has been facing tougher competition in five starts in the East Coast and this race is actually a drop down in class when you consider the company she faced this year. The home-bred daughter of Sky Mesa finished seventh beaten nine and half lengths in the Grade II Hillsborough on March 11 in her previous start at today’s 1-⅛ mile distance where she faced classy group of fillies and mares on the turf. The sixth-place finisher Light in Paris returned to win the Plenty of Grace Stakes on April 15 at Aqueduct and then ran second in the Grade III Eatontown Stakes on June 3 at Monmouth Park earning Beyer Speed Figures of 95 and 92 respectively. The winner Dickinson returned to win the Grade I Jenny Wiley and finish third beaten only three-quarters of a length in the Grade 1 Just A Game earning Beyer Speed Figures of 100 and 98 respectively. After a win versus Florida-breds in the Pleasant Acres Stallion Distaff Turf, she returned versus open company at this class level on Preakness Stakes day at Pimlico and ran fifth beaten only a length in what has returned to be a “key” race. The fourth-place finisher, Gone Away, returned to win Allowance N2X at Laurel by five and half lengths earning improved 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The third-place finisher, Tricky Escape, returned to finish fourth beaten two-lengths in the Grade III Eatontown Stakes on June 3 at Monmouth Park earning improved 91 Beyer Speed Figure. Finally, the runner up Arraign returned to win Allowance N2X at Delaware Park with 82 Beyer Speed Figure. She finished third on June 17 in Florida-bred Stakes at Gulfstream Park earning the second highest last race 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Tom Proctor trainee has a huge late kick and is reunited with Drayden Van Dyke who rode her to a 37-1 upset win over this turf course in the Jimmy Durante Stakes as a two-year old.

The Play: This race boils down to Bert’s Melody on the front end, Family Meeting charging from off the pace, and red hot Moonless Sky who is 4/3-1-0 for trainer Eddie Truman and Kent Desormeaux. I will be focusing on the Exacta and WIN bet on Bert’s Melody if we get anywhere near her 6-1 morning line.

WIN bet on (1) BERT’S MELODY at 6-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 1-3, 1-7. Small reverse.

Main Exactas: 3-1, 3-7. Small reverse.

Main Pick 3: 1, 3 / 2, 5, 7, 10 / 4 = 2 x 4 x 1 x $2 = $16   

Race 7: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and upward

TimeformUS pace projector anticipates this one-mile Allowance event will not favor a specific running style but based on my review of the entrants in this field only two horses have enough early speed to take this field gate to wire. Absolutely Stylish will go straight to the front end but will be pressed on the outside by another stylish maiden winner Gato Del Oro as those two horses are the main early pace in this race. Karma King and Tell Me Story will be out sprinted for the early lead and will be forced to stalk this leading duo. Giant Expectations will be sitting in first flight waiting to pounce on the two leaders into the far turn. Miner’s Light, Quiet Dude, and Saint Dermot are closers looking for a pace meltdown in the stretch.

Absolutely Stylish owns the field’s highest last race Beyer Speed Figure (92) and Gato Del Oro owns the highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure (113) in the field. Absolutely Stylish owns the field’s highest TimeformUS early pace rating (122) and Magical Mystery owns the field’s highest TimeformUS late pace rating (103).

I am playing against third choice on the morning line Giant Expectations who finished behind subsequent Breeders Cup Classic winner Arrogate last year at Santa Anita. The New York-bred son of Frost Giant shipped to Belmont Park to take advantage of that state’s New York bred program and romped by a combined twelve and quarter lengths in his last two starts. However a closer inspection leaves plenty of question marks shipping back to Southern California facing open company. He broke his maiden by nine and three-quarter lengths on May 29 earning a career best 89 Beyer Speed Figure and 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure and defeated a sub-par field that saw six horses behind him return and only two of them (one second and one third) finish in the money with the four others finishing off the board in their next start. The Peter Eurton trainee returned ten days later to humble New York bred Allowance N1X rivals easily duplicating his 89 Beyer Speed Figure. The belief is that this colt would be better suited shipping back to Saratoga and tackling New York bred company where he is proven to be competitive.

I narrowed this field to four horses including the two morning line favorites but the best price and proven form at this class level happens to be the highest price of my four contenders. KARMA KING (#2) is a Del Mar horse for course with a record of 5-3-2-0 and has affinity for winning or finishing second with eleven first or seconds from twenty-two career starts. The Pure Prize made his last start at Del Mar on more than a year ago on July 15, 2016 at this same class level and distance where he ran second beaten length and half behind the winner Grazen Sky but this gelding won the early pace battle but lost the war in a game effort in defeat. In that race he stalked the dueling leaders between longshot J Serino and tepid post time favorite Westfest as those two locked heads into a torrid 22.21 second opening quarter and Karma King moved up into that fast pace to press the favorite through a 46.54 second half mile. The Brian Koriner trainee took over the lead midway on the far turn and faced a brief challenge from the opportunistic stalker Forest Blue and turned that rival away in the stretch but the early pace took its toll as Grazen Sky rallied from last to blow past Karma King to win by length and half. He earned a 87 Beyer Speed Figure and 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure but take nothing away from Karma King’s runner-up performance because he pressed a very fast pace earning way above average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+33, +18). This effort took a lot out of this gelding because he was not seen for the remainder of the year. He made his long awaited return to the races off a 338-day layoff on June 18 at this same class level and distance and with his previous record here at Del Mar the belief in this corner is that race was a prep race for this event and he ran an excellent race in defeat considering the extended layoff. According to the HR Trip Notes, Karma King “led early then set a measured pace, kicked away leaving the backstretch, collared leaving the far turn, lost the lead passing mid stretch, never stopped trying, out finished late.” The HR Trip Note writer believes “he might have held even longer had he had a work over the track.” Although the race was not visually impressive with the first six horses separated by two and three-quarter lengths, Karma King showed he has kept his form in tact with his game fourth-place finish beaten less than two-lengths. He should move forward in his second race off the very long layoff and with three works since that come back effort. In addition, he should get a great stalking trip sitting behind the two morning line favorites, Gato Del Oro and Absolutely Stylish, and at giant 15-1 on the morning line he the price play in this competitive Allowance race at Del Mar.

In my exotics I will use three horses that do not include Giant Expectations. My second choice is another price horse, MAGICAL MYSTERY (#10) who broke his maiden off a 177-day layoff in his first start for trainer Scott Hansen on February 12 at Santa Anita where he defeated a terrible field as the second, fourth, and fifth place finishers are now combined one-for-twenty nine in their career. After a failed turf try in his next start, he returned to the main track on May 20 and ran a strong second at this same class level in what has returned to be a “key” race. According to the HR Trip Notes, Magical Mystery “Raced at the back of the pack onto the backstretch, drifted back as the field traveled, improved past the half-mile pole, made a big move along the rail in the far turn, angled out mid stretch, ran at the leader, cut the margin late.” His runner-up performance looks even better when you consider the winner, West Coast, returned to win the Easy Goer Stakes and Grade III Los Alamitos Derby with improved Beyer Speed Figures of 99 and 100 and fifth-place finisher My Italian Babbo returned to win Allowance N1X with career best 91 Beyer Speed Figure. The Unbridled’s Song gelding will be finishing in the lane. GATO DEL ORO (#5) earned the field’s second highest last race 89 Beyer Speed Figure on June 10 and could not have been more impressive in victory as described by HR Trip Note writer. The son of Medaglia D’Oro “broke slow, being pinched back at the start, making his way under a hold along the inside to lead after a 1⁄4 mile, gradually putting away his pace rivals in the turn, kicking home strong enough while slowly drifting out to keep the late challenger at bay.” The strength of that win was flattered when his pace rival in that maiden race, The Rule of King’s, came back on June 23, dropped in for a $75,000 claiming price, and broke his maiden by length and three-quarters earning career best 84 Beyer Speed Figure. He will be the one horse closest to morning line favorite ABSOLUTELY STYLISH (#7). The latter finished a better than looked fourth behind undefeated and now retired Mastery in his career debut last October at Santa Anita. He returned from a 189-day layoff on April 29 and broke his maiden in visually impressive where he won by neck over subsequent next time out winner Honor and Courage who finished seven and three-quarter lengths in front of the rest of the field. The field’s projected leader will take some catching as TimeformUS leader in early pace rating.

The Play: With our top choice Karma King at 15-1 on the morning line and likely will go off above 8-1 come post time the belief is he will at least finish in the top three in his second race off almost a one-year layoff.

WIN bet on (2) KARMA KING at 8-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 2-5, 2-7, 2-10. Small reverse for each.

Trifecta part-wheel: 5, 7, 10 / 5, 7, 10 / 2

Race 8: Oceanside Stakes, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds

TimeformUS pace projector believes this race will develop at a very fast early pace and based on a review of the entrants in this race a fast pace is highly likely. Rockin Rudy will go straight to the front but will find company for the lead with Arms Runner right up with the early leaders. In behind that trio are another set of front running types in Vending Machine, All About Mike, and Placido. The horses that will benefit if a pace meltdown happens are Bird is the Word, Bowies Hero, and Fortune of War.

Arms Runner enters this race with the field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure (95) and TimeformUS Speed Figure (116). The leader in TimeformUS early pace rating is Rockin Rudy (111) and the leader in late rating is Bird is the Word (99).

I am playing against the undefeated Arms Runner. He defeated a terrible field of maidens in his career debut where from the eight horses that ran back only three of them hit the board in there next start (one second-place finish and two third-place finishes). Last time in the Desert Code he had a perfect stalking trip behind red coded TimeformUS early pace (fast fractions) and rallied to win defeating another sub-par field that only produced two third-place finishes. He will be a short price trying two turns for the first time which is not a strong angle for the Peter Miller barn here a Del Mar. Formulator Fact: trainer Peter Miller wins at only 6% (32/2-0-4) with his starters trying two turns for the first time on the Jimmy Durante turf course here at Del Mar.

In my opinion the key prep race for the Oceanside Stakes happen on May 6 at Santa Anita in the Singletary Stakes where four of the entrants ran in that race and appear in the traditional opening day feature race. That race featured a torrid early pace that saw the leaders earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and set it up perfectly for the closers. I believe a similar setup is likely and my top three choices are the three best closers in this race lead by the winner of the Singletary Stakes, BOWIE’S HERO (#4). The son of Artie Schiller is right at home over this Del Mar turf course where he won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes last September at generous 9-2. After going off form in two subsequent starts, he returned from a six month layoff in the Singletary Stakes where despite a very fast pace to set up for his late kick he had to overcame terrible start that almost saw his rider Thiago Pereira get unseated at the start. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes for that race, Bowie’s Hero “broke on his face at the start of the contest, picked himself up to race at the rear of the field, waited on his pilot into the far turn, loaded, taken eight-wide into the stretch, stormed home over the top, joined a rival mid-stretch, put him away, safe to the wire.” The Phil D’Amato trainee earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure (89) and TimeformUS Speed Figure (114) and the form of that race was validated when the fourth, fifth, and ninth-place finishers all returned to win earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 94, 87, and 88 respectively. This performance gave his connections plenty of confidence to enter Bowie’s Hero in the Grade III Pennine Ridge at Belmont Park on June 3 where he was out classed where he split a seven horse field despite navigating a clean ground saving trip around both turns and could not quicken to run down Oscar Performance who came back to win the Grade I Belmont Derby earning improved 96 Beyer Speed Figure and duplicate 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. He returns from a forty-six day layoff but showed he can run well fresh as a two-year old in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes and Singletary Stakes. Drawn well, gets sufficient amount of early speed to set up for his late kick, and turning back to his preferred one-mile distance should suit Bowie’s Hero as the winner of the Oceanside Stakes.

I will be using only two others underneath in my exacta plays and both are closers that should benefit from the expected fast early pace. BIRD IS THE WORD (#2) ran second behind our top choice Bowie’s Hero in the Singletary Stakes on May 6 at Santa Anita and he ran second in his most recent start on June 30 versus straight three-year olds at today’s one mile distance and he did not have the smoothest of trips. According to the HR Trip Notes, the son of Birdstone “was prominent early, hung out four-deep into the first turn, settled in the second flight of runners three-deep, picked up his feet three-deep in the far turn, forced six-wide into the stretch, leveled off, ran to the wire, could not stave off the winner.” The amount of ground lost is also reflected in Trakus where he ran forty-four more feet then the winner Double Touch. He gets significant turf rider upgrade to Gary Stevens and he has tactical speed so his jockey can place himself anywhere for his patent late kick. FORTUNE OF WAR (#12) just broke his maiden in his eleventh career start on April 30 where he he put it altogether to deliver a smashing late kick overcoming a slow early pace that featured blue coded TimeformUS pace figures to win by length and a half coming home the final quarter of a mile in 22.68 seconds. The HR Trip Notes stated that this was “visually impressive, he has a chance to go up the ladder and this race should prove productive.” Sure enough this maiden race proved to be a “key” event as third, fourth, and tenth place finishers all came back to win earning improved Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figures in the process. Corey Nakatani takes over in the irons and I expect a patent late charge to the wire.

The Play: The anticipated pace scenario and my stand against Arms Runner will lead my wagers structured with the following bets.

WIN bet on (4) BOWIE’S HERO at 2-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 4-2, 4-12. Small reverse for each.

Prize Exhibit Seeks a Clean Trip in the Yellow Ribbon

Saturday July 16, 2016.

Race 5: Wickerr Stakes, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and up

The anticipated early pace can play an important role for those that will be coming from off the early pace. According to TimeformUS pace projector, a fast early pace is anticipated with Lieutenant Colonel (#3) going straight to the lead chased or pressed by Forever Juanito (#5). Morning line favorite Vyjack should fall into a perfect spot tracking that fast pace in third with horses such as Toowindytohaulroux (#1) and Power Ped (#2) will be charging from off the pace late.

Toowindytohaulroux (#1) will stretch out from the hillside turf course to one mile on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course and that should pose no issue for this son of Harlan’s Holiday. His only win over this turf course happen over this distance back in August 15, 2015 where he sprung the 6-1 upset. The anticipated fast pace should benefit this Phil D’Amato trainee as he took advantage of a similar race set up when he won the Gr. 3 Daytona Handicap on December 26 at Santa Anita. In that race he settled outside a rival and trailed early behind a torrid early pace set by Rocket Heat. He gradually moved up down the hill three wide and came six wide into the main turf course and rallied to win a blanket finish to win by a neck in a race where the fast early pace set up very well for the closers as the winner and second-place finisher rallied from tenth and eighth early. A winner of four of sixteen starts on turf, he was not seen on the racetrack for one hundred and sixty-two days when he returned in the Siren Lure Stakes on June 5 at Santa Anita and ran into his favored stablemate, Hunt, who won his fourth start from five races down the hillside turf course. In that race he chase the loose leader Act between rivals early and settled on the rail down the hill after a half mile in 43.74 seconds, angled three wide into the stretch, and chased the favored winner finishing 2-¼ lengths in front of the rest of the field earning a 96 Beyer Speed Figure that is the second highest last race speed figure on turf in this field. He will now stretch out to a route on turf in his second start off the layoff and according to DRF Del Mar Guide this has been a winning move from the D’Amato barn here at Del Mar. In the past five years he is 27-7-4-2 (26%) with his starters stretching out from a sprint to a route here at Del Mar and that sample includes Lil Bit of Fun (July 23, 2014, $20.80-1), Know Plans (November 15, 2015, $11.00-1), and Midnight Storm (August 10, 2014, $9.70-1). Regular rider Thiago Pereira will position this five-year old along the rail in midpack behind the anticipated fast early pace and can spring the upset at 10-1 on the morning line to start the Pick 6.

In my exotics I will also use Vyjack (#6). This half brother to Tepin won his first start on turf on April 21 in a blanket finish where the entire eight horse field was separated by only 2-¼ lengths where the eighth-place finisher, Dimension, returned to win his next two starts including the Gr. 2 King Edward Stakes. He rallied from second to last to finish second in the Gr. 3 Red Bank on June 5. Trainer Phil D’Amato is 27-7-4-4 (26%) with new acquisitions routing on the turf and gets Flavien Prat in the irons. Little Curlin (#4) was positioned close to a very slow early pace when he stretched out to 1-⅛ miles on turf on June 16, hung in tough to mid-stretch, and out finished to the wire. With his stablemate Lieutenant Colonel going to the front, jockey Martin Pedroza can settle and make that patent late run as he did when he won his first start on turf at 47-1 on March 20 at Santa Anita.

The Play:

WIN bet on (1) Toowindytohaulroux at 6-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 1-6. Small reverse.

Small Exacta: 1-4. No reverse.

Race 7: Allowance N1X, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three-year old

From post position two look for It’s The Ice (#2) to go straight for the early lead but can find company early as Horse Greedy (#8) stretching out after disputing the early lead at 5-½ furlongs in his last start can ensure a fast pace to set this race up for horses coming from just off the pace or charging from well back. The other Phil D’Amato trainee Lauren’s Ladd (#10) should fall into a perfect trip behind leaders with Bombard (#5) and I’malreadythere (#11). Lucky Bryan (#12) and All the Marbles (#3) will be sitting behind this midpack hoping the fast pace that TimeformUS suggest materializes for their late kick.

All The Marbles (#3) is a son of Lonhro out of the Gr. 1 Del Mar Debutante winner Miss Houdini making this half brother to Papa Clem who won the Gr. 2 Arkansas Derby. The Marty Jones trainee was ignored in the wagering going off as the fourth longest shot on the board at 15-1 and he ran seventh beaten five-lengths behind Tristan’s Trilogy. However according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, this debut was nothing more than a “learning” experience. In that race he “Hopped at the start, stayed at the rear and outside of the main field, was asked for run after the dirt but did not produce one and was not asked for everything.” His connections clearly wanted to get this colt a race and that set him up to stretch to two turns on May 13 where he won by a nose where according to the trouble comment in the Daily Racing Form he was “Rank, steadied early & ¾.” However the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes writer paid a more vivid picture of his actual running line and it was impressive than his nose margin of victory. In his second career start he “broke in and a bit slowly at the break, was very rank, pulled hard and steadied then checked badly and came out around the first turn, steadied again around the opening bens, moved up to prompt the pace three-deep passing the half-mile pole, stalked again leaving the backstretch, re-bid around the far turn, bumped the runner-up into the lane, put his head in front while getting in passing midstretch, lost the lead deep stretch to the wire, battled back, won the tight photo.” The negative from this race was visually it was unimpressive as the first seven finishers were separated by 3-¼ lengths at the wire and the second thru eighth-place finishers all came back to lose their next start with only the fourth-place finisher, Pappou, managing a third-place finish. The positives from this victory are he overcame a very wide journey covering 5 feet and 30 feet more than the second and third-place finisher according to Trackus and his ability to overcome so much in only his second start suggest he has talent. He will make his first start in sixty-four days but this homebred has trained with plenty of vigor for his first start versus winners according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington with three consecutive B workouts including a five furlong move in 1:00 ⅗ that Andy stated he “Ran by an Agarie trainee midway finishing with purpose in 35.4, 100.0. Moving forward on the learning curve.” Drawn well in post position three with anticipated fast pace set by It’s The Ice and Horse Greedy as targets for him to run down in the stretch. He has plenty of blue sky in front him making his third career start and should be overlooked at juicy 6-1 morning line.

In my exotics I will use the morning line favorite It’s the Ice (#2) who will make his first start off a one hundred twenty-five day layoff but should be on the lead for trainer Phil D’Amato who excels with his turf trainees specifically here at Del Mar the past five years. In addition he enters this race with B move on July 3 where he worked in company with Race 10 maiden winner on opening day Alaskan Son per National Turf’s Andy Harrington assistant at Los Alamitos. Lauren’s Ladd (#10) could fall into a perfect stalking trip if It’s the Ice and Horse Greedy engage in a speed duel and this City Zip colt will be the first to attack. He defeated a “key” race field when he broke his maiden down the hillside turf course on May 14 and then failed to kick on through the last eighth of a mile after a perfect ground saving trip in the Rainbow Stakes on June 18 at Santa Anita. The biggest issue with him as well as our fourth preference, Lucky Bryan (#12) is both exit the Rainbow Stakes where the first nine horses were separated by 4-¼ lengths and it has proven to be a negative race five horses have returned to lose their next start with the best finish being Prince of Arabia running a distant third in Gr. 3 Affirmed beaten nine lengths.

The Play:

WIN bet on (3) ALL THE MARBLES at 4-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 3-2. Small reverse.

Smaller Exactas: 3-10, 3-12. No reverse.

Race 9: Gr. 2 Yellow Ribbon, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Fillies and mares

On paper there is not a confirmed front runner that can make the probable pace scenario in flux. According to the TimeformUS pace projector this race will favor horses on or near the lead with Her Emmynency (#3) going to the early lead but will be chased or pressed by She’s Not Here (#8). Horses that will sit in behind this early pace will be Prize Exhibit (#4) and Finest City (#6). I expect horses such as Nancy From Nairobi (#2), Majestic Heat (#5), and Queen of the Sand (#7) to be charging from midpack or well off the early pace to make it an exciting finish to the wire. I look for horses that will be running close to the early pace as my primary focus.

Prize Exhibit (#4) has finished in the money in three of four starts on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course and her only off the board finish happen in the November 29 Gr. 1 Matriarch where she was carried extremely wide into the stretch by the lugging out She’s Not Here and did well finish only 3-½ lengths behind the 65-1 upset winner Stormy Lucy. The daughter of Showcasing enters this event with consecutive off the board efforts where she finished twelfth beaten nine-lengths in the Gr. 2 Royal Heroine where today’s morning line favorite Nancy from Nairobi defeated her and managed to split the field beaten 5-½ lengths behind Celestine in the Gr. 1 Just A Game. She has had excuses in both defeats and she is my top preference based on her better than looked twelfth place finish on May 5 where she made my Horses to Watch list. The James Cassidy trainee chased three horse speed duel among Smoove It, La Berma, and Living the Life in fourth early saving ground along the rail through a half mile in a quick 47.49 seconds. She had run waiting off horses heels on the far turn and had to wait for room into the stretch but it never developed, steadied sharply as tired horses Smoove It and Living the Life back up to her heels in the stretch, and was wrapped up in the stretch in a much better than looked effort that is not described in the “Blocked rail ¼-⅛,” found in the trouble comment. This effort prompted her connections to ambitiously place her in the Gr. 1 Just a Game at Belmont Park on June 11 where she was ran a respectable sixth splitting the field outrunning her 57-1 odds. In that race she raced in the rear of the field in between rivals behind her stablemate La Berma who set a quick 23.36 opening quarter mile and 46.13 second half mile. She continued racing in traffic between rivals on the turn and found herself behind horses blocked into the stretch, found clear run approaching mid-stretch when she was taken six wide, and ran decently to pass tired rivals to finish sixth defeating half the field in the process earning the turf’s co-highest last race 96 Beyer Speed Figure in the field. The Just A Game earned outstanding 107 Beyer Speed Figure which is the tied for the fourth fastest turf route this year and the validity of that figure was confirmed. The fifth-place finisher Faufiler returned to win the Gr. 3 Modesty Handicap and the tenth-place finisher returned to win the Gr. 2 Dance Smartly. Jockey Santiago Gonzalez reunites with this filly who was aboard this fillies last three victories and should get a great trip just behind the early pace between Her Emmynency and She’s Not Here and will just need a clear trip where she can upset at juicy morning line of 12-1.

In my exotics I will focus my attention on She’s Not Here (#8) is a selection not based on her sixth place finish in the Gr. 3 Arlington Matron but her seventh and sixth-place efforts behind Tepin in the Gr. 1 Jenny Wiley and Gr. 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile. She was moved prematurely in the Jenny Wiley and set an enervating pace uncontested on the lead and was collared by the favored winner and tired in a race that produced four next time out winners. In the latter event she failed to muster a run in another productive race that produced three next time out winners. She returns to Del Mar where her two victories at this 1-1/16 distance happen over this Jimmy Durante turf course. Trainer Victoria Oliver is 15-5-0-1 (33%) with her turf routers here at Del Mar the past five years and she is done well with her turf routers in stakes races. Personal Diary (August 16, 2014, $9.10-1), She’s Not Here (September 6, 2015, $6.40-1), and Honey Lake (August 21, 2015, $7.90-1) all won stakes races going long on the turf and as you can see none were favored. Finest City (#6) finished third in the Gr. 1 Vanity Mile behind last year’s Eclipse Award for older filly and mares Beholder and Eclipse Award for three-year old filly Stellar Wind. Moreover that Vanity has gone on to be a very productive race as the fourth-and-fifth place finishers returned to win the Spring Fever and Southern Truce Stakes respectively. She is bred to love the turf being a daughter of City Zip out of the dam Be Envied who won two of eleven starts routing on the turf. She enters this race with a stellar half mile spin in 46.1 on July 9 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “turned in a super speedy spin in 22.3, 45.3 never asked for run in this happy solo move. Retains all her speed.” In a race that TimeformUS suggest will favor horses on or near the early lead, I expect Finest City to use her early speed to take this field straight to the front. Nancy from Nairobi (#2) is morning line favorite that drops in class after running sixth in the Gr. 1 Gamely behind pace pressing winner Illuminant. She took full advantage of a pace meltdown when she won the Gr. 2 Royal Heroine on May 5 in a race where her other rivals suffered trouble trips.  

The Play:

WIN bet on (4) PRIZE EXHIBIT to WIN at 7-1 or better.

Exacta box key: 4 with 2, 6, 8.

Trifecta part-wheel: 4 with 2, 6, 8 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 = $30 for a $2 Wager

Trifecta part-wheel: 2, 6, 8 with 4 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 = $15 for a $1 Wager

Hidden Class Drop Highlights Oceanside Stakes on Opening Day

Friday July 15, 2016 - OPENING DAY OF DEL MAR!

Race 7: Allowance N1X/Optional Claiming $40,000, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and up

One cannot make an intelligent decision on this race without dissecting the likely pace scenario of this race. Westfest (#7) and J Serino (#5) both exit victories around two turns at Santa Anita but the former is quicker and should find himself on the lead. However horses such as Forest Blue (#3), Victory Call (#6), and Karma King (#8) are all stretching out from a sprint to a route and will be forwardly placed early. Our preference will be a horse that can settle just off the early flight of leaders and pounce.

Missing Groom (#4) will get the top preference as this California-bred Colonel John gelding has form over a fast Del Mar main track where he won his only start of 2015 over this identical surface and distance almost a year ago on July 24, 2015 where he parlayed a perfect stalk and pounce trip under Flavien Prat to win by 1-¾ lengths. The form of that victory was validated as the second-and-fourth place finishers came back to win earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 89 and 77 respectively in their next start. He was not seen for the rest of 2015 and made his return to the races 316 days later on June 4 at Santa Anita and was asked to go a 1-⅛ miles with only seven workouts all Los Alamitos. When you consider the depth of his layoff and running at 1-⅛ for the first time he ran very well to finish seventh beaten eight lengths. He showed good early speed only to be pressed hard by his pace rival Carlsbad Mountain through quick fractions of 22.83 and 46.87 seconds for a half mile. He shook free of Carlsbad Mountain midway on the far turn to lead but was immediately hooked by the eventual winner Ike Walker past the quarter pole, fought gamely to the eighth pole, and gave way. This was a super effort when you consider he raced inside through fast pace speed duel on a main track that strongly favored speed on the outside paths that the winner rode to victory while Missing Groom was hurt by the bias. He will now shorten up to his preferred one-mile distance (8/2-4-1) and has bounced out of his comeback with three blistering workouts at Los Alamitos including a 59.4 move on July 3 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant stated this “Free running type was moving fast to the top, coaxed home the last 1/4 in 24.4, finished in 59.4. Doing well since last.” He does not need the lead to win but can settle just off the pace and pounce as he did in his last win over this Del Mar main track. Juicy 8-1 on the morning line to start the opening day Late Pick 4.

Underneath in our exotics we will use Storm Comin Thru (#1) who also exits the same race as our top choice and can improve in his second race off the bench but appears shy of visiting the Winner’s Circle with nine seconds or thirds from twenty-three starts. Forest Blue (#3) who stretches out following a pair of in the money efforts in consecutive highly rated sprints to Drefong and Who’s Out in his last two starts. Victory Call (#6) will stretch out after two sprints and split the field on June 25 in the same highly rated Allowance N1X that Forest Blue exits.

The Play:

WIN bet on (4) MISSING GROOM at 6-1 or better.

Exacta box key: 4 over 1, 3, 6.

Pick 3: 1, 3, 4, 6 / 7 / 4, 8 = 4 x 1 x 2 x $2 = $16

Race 8: Oceanside Stakes, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds

The probable pace scenario of the traditional opening day feature appears straightforward on paper. Mr. Roary (#13) who has been on the lead at the first pace call in his last three turf routes will go straight for the lead but can find company for the early lead. Imperious One (#3) who disputed the lead and held second behind Path of David in last year’s Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita and fell on an uncontested lead on January 24 in a field that had no early speed. The Oceanside Stakes will have an honest early pace to set up those stalking or coming from the rear of the field.

My stand in this race is I am throwing out all the horses that exit the June 18 Rainbow Stakes at Santa Anita. Nine of the eleven entrants were separated by 4-¼ lengths in a visually unimpressive race and therefore I will not be using Arcatrue (#8), Mr. Roary, and Liam the Charmer (#14) on any of my suggested wagers. I am looking for a new face to win this race and one who can settle just off those early leaders and pounce.

Ebadan (#7) will take a hidden drop in class because he has faced three and up company in his last two starts and now will face only straight three-year olds. The Holy Roman Emperor bay made his United States debut as a new gelding on May 19 going 6-½ furlongs down the hillside turf course and unleashed a monster late kick to spring the 12-1 upset. In that race he trailed far back behind a three-horse speed battle early among Love My Bud, City of Vengeance, and Seventh Sense as those three battled through fractions of 21.82 and 44.60 seconds for a half mile. He was angled extremely wide while far back passing the dirt crossing and into the main turf course and closed widest of all to get up at the wire to win by a nose. Although this was not a terrific field as four horses behind Ebadan came back to lose their next start and six horses were separated by 2-½ lengths, this Neil Drysdale trainee should be given extra credit for being a three-year old that defeated older. He stretched out to two turns stepping up to face Allowance N2X on June 12 and ran a respectable third in a highly rated turf route won by Ohio (99 Beyer) who is a contender in Saturday’s Wickerr Stakes. He stalked the dueling leaders Professor Berns and Hay Dude in a comfortable spot on the rail in fourth early. He continued on the rail as the winner had a clear three wide sailing on the turn and into the stretch, angled out into the stretch, and ran evenly to the wire while out finished by Ohio and second-place finishers Itsinthepost. That third-place finisher earned him the top last race Beyer Speed Figure of 93 in this field and now meets an easier field versus the older Allowance N2X he faced last time out. He has bounced back with three workouts over the Santa Anita training track including a B workout on July 1 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated he displayed a “Nice late kick with Little Scotty in 39.2, 115.1. Going very well right now.” He has tactical speed to get an excellent trip behind the early leaders Mr. Roary and Imperious One and should be hint of a price with all the attention focused around Moonlight Drive and Dressed in Hermes as my BEST BET on the card.

Underneath in my exotics I will be using Dressed in Hermes (#9) who drops in class after facing two very strong fields in the Gr. 2 American Turf on Kentucky Derby day (produced three next time out winners) and Gr. 3 Pennine Ridge where the runner-up, Highland Sky, came back to finish second beaten a neck in the Gr. 1 Belmont Derby. Monster Bea (#12) who ran into a slow pace won by a pace pressing winner Keystoneforvictory on May 15 and the form of that race was flattered when the latter returned to win Forty Niner Stakes by 3-¼ lengths earning 85 Beyer Speed Figure. He exits a perfect trip ground saving stalk and pounce trip on June 10 and makes his first race for Peter Miller. On smaller tickets I will be using Moonlight Drive (#2) who makes his first start off a 151 day layoff. In the past five years, trainer Bob Baffert is 3-0-0-1 with turf routers returning off a 100 to 175 day layoff according to DRF Formulator.

The Play:

WIN bet on (7) EBADAN to WIN

Main Exacta: 7-9, 7-12. Small reverse.

Smaller Exacta: 7-2. No reverse.

Race 9: Allowance N1X, 1-Mile, Three-year olds and upward

This one-mile contest on the main track appears to have a straightforward pace scenario that could fall in the favor or horses running on or near the early lead. Got Even (#4) chased a very fast early pace for a half mile on May 6 and breaking from post position four with hustling rider Edwin Maldonado in the irons will go straight to the front but will be tracked or pressed by Chief of Staff (#10) early.

Despite trainer Bob Baffert ending the Santa Anita meet on a roll, I will be taking a stand against morning line favorite Dr. Door. The Lookin at Lucky colt will make his first start off a 244 day layoff trying two turns for the first time. According to DRF Formulator, that move has been a losing move for bettors. In the past five years he has had four starters return off layoffs of more than 180 days making their first route start with one winner. He has had three losses at $1.80-1, $4.00-1, and $3.90-1. I do not believe in taking a short price on a horse doing something new for the first time and despite the glowing reviews from National Turf’s Andy Harrington (pair of B works), I will let him beat me.

Got Even (#4) has always been known as a bridesmaid with nineteen combined seconds or thirds from forty-six career starts but this Stephen Got Even gelding has shown an affinity for Del Mar even though he does not win. He was second beaten a combined 1-¼ lengths in his previous two starts routing over this Del Mar main track and enters this race off a pair of off the board efforts. The seven-year old gelding finished sixth and last on January 22 in his final start for previous trainer Peter Miller and finished fifth beaten 4-¾ lengths in his first start off the Bill Spawr claim on May 6 at Santa Anita. He has had excuses in each defeat and with only one pace rival to deal with in this event I can expect Got Even to emerge victorious in his second start off the claim. He was sent off as the 4-1 third choice on January 22 but this front runner lost all chance to show his early speed at the start. He stumbled badly at the start to lose all chance, was carried extremely wide into the first turn and down the backstretch to chase the early pace, dropped back, and was eased through the stretch to finish last in a non-conclusive performance. He was claimed for $50,000 from that debacle by trainer Bill Spawr who freshen him up and returned from a one hundred and five day layoff on May 6 where a torrid early pace where he chased the speedy St. Joe Bay compromised his chances. Breaking from the rail, he established a pressured early pace through very quick fractions of 22.99 and 45.99 seconds for a half mile, dropped back to stalk that rival on the turn, continued chasing that rival all the way to mid-stretch, and tired in a race where the fast pace set up perfectly for the winner Big Tire who rallied from sixth and last to win by 1-¼ lengths. Although that race returned to be a sub-par event with the first four finishers returning to lose their next start, Got Even chased a blistering pace per the Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+4, +6). He comes back from a seventy-day layoff with six consecutive workouts including a better than looked six furlong move in 1:14.4 on July 9 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Old class sort turned in an improved spin going off slowly in 14.2, 27.0, 50.2 (23.2 mid 1/4), 115.1. Seems to be feeling good about himself these days,” and trainer Bill Spawr does SUPERB work with his dirt routers making their second start off the claim. According to DRF Formulator, Spawr is 5-3-0-0 (60%) in the past five years with dirt routers making their second start off the claim and his last two winners did not go favored: A Colt Following (January 2, 2016, $6.80-1) and Broadway Nika (March 25, 2016, $14.10-1). The presence of Edwin Maldonado suggest he will be on the lead and his only pace rival, Chief of Staff, tired badly on June 24 after pressing a very slow early pace per Moss Pace Figures for a half mile (-6, -5). I expect Got Even to go straight to the front and prove a very tough rival to run down at a juicy 6-1 on the morning line for a barn that does excellent work with trainees making their second start off the claim.

In my exotic wagers I will be using Souper Knight (#8) as my second preference. The Midnight Lute gelding defeated only two horses to the wire finishing fourth in a seven furlong $50,000 claiming event on June 18 but that sprint returned to be a productive “key” race. The winner Heir of Storm returned to finish second behind gate to wire comeback winner Masochistic on July 8 earning 94 Beyer Speed Figure and third-place finisher came back to win Allowance N2X with a career best 99 Beyer Speed Figure. Moreover, he will make his first start off the claim for Peter Miller on dirt. According to the Del Mar Guide, trainer Peter Miller has won at a gaudy 50% (12-6-0-0) the past five years with his starters making their first start off the claim on the Del Mar main track. Flavian Prat takes the call. Also I will use Westbrook (#7) who has managed to split the field in his last two sprints but has run evenly through the stretch to indicate he will handle the stretch out to one-mile and he exits highly rated Allowance N1X won by Who’s Out (97 Beyer) on June 25 at Santa Anita.

The Play:

WIN bet on (4) GOT EVEN at 6-1 or better.

WIN bet on (8) SOUPER KNIGHT at 5-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 4-8. Small reverse.

Small Exacta: 4-7. Smaller reverse.