Over Emphasize Can Spring Surprise in San Clemente

Friday’s Recap: Total -$100 for the meet. We connected with Oakland Mills but Streak of Luck did not have the smoothest of trips and we move on today’s Saturday’s card. The main action is later part of the card and being Saturday I will focus strictly on WIN bets. 

Race 6: (9) GYPSY BLU

This California bred daughter of Papa Clem is turf sprinting specialist having won four of five starts sprinting on a firm turf course with only one second and she returns to the Jimmy Durante turf course where she scored her only victory on this layout last year at 30-1. The Mark Glatt trainee won the Irish O’ Brian Stakes down the hillside turf course on March 31 at Santa Anita by only a half-length but she overcame a less than idea race shape to win from off the pace and did so over good field. She was taken back off the pace as the three leaders established slow fractions of 21.98 and 44.15 seconds. She began to inch closer down the hill and across the dirt portion of the layout, angled four wide into the turf course, and rallied to wear down the favorite S.Y. Sky to win by a half-length. This returned to be a productive field as the runner-up returned to win Camilla Urso Stakes and Grade 2 Monrovia Stakes in her next two starts with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 111 and 110 respectively and the fifth place finisher Queen Bee To You returned to run second and win the Fran’s Valentine and Bertrando Stakes with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 107 and 112 respectively. One can draw a line through her fourth place finish in the Fran’s Valentine on May 12 because she was running at one-mile a distance that is beyond her distance limitations where she split the field running fourth. She returned to one turn in an Allowance race on June 14 and she ran second behind today’s rival KENTON ROAD but she was compromised by a lack of early speed as the eventual winner got loose on the lead where Gypsy Blu earned a career best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure a figure two points higher because she rallied against the uncontested gate to wire winner. She has come back with two works including sharp half-mile spin in 48 ⅖ on July 12 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “willing while joined home by Blue Moonrise (Baffert) in 23.2, 48.1. Is going quite well.” The lack of pace she encountered last time will not be found here as KENTON ROAD will find pressure from the speedy PAINTING CORNERS and LADY SUEBEE. Norbertto Arroyo Jr. remains in the irons and should stalk a lively pace in mid-pack and pounce over a layout she adores at a hint of a price. 

Wagering Strategies: 

Race 5 $20 Daily Double: (8) BLUE MOONRISE with (9) GYPSY BLU 

$25 WIN on (9) GYPSY BLU at 7-2 or better. 

Race 8: (6) OVER EMPHASIZE 

A daughter of Overanalyze comes into the San Clemente with only a maiden victory over this distance back on April 12 at Santa Anita she rallied from midpack to win by a nose. Since that victory, she has returned with pair of the in the money performances where her off the pace running style was compromised by a lack of pace or trouble at important parts of the pace and I feel this Mike McCarthy trainee needs pace and better racing luck to score the upset in this Grade 2 event. After her maiden victory, she took on winners for the first time on May 3 where her stalking style was compromised by a lack of early speed as the favored winner was able to get loose on an uncontested lead through slow fractions and she won the battle for second at the wire. She stepped up in class in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes and did not have the cleanest of trips in the stretch as the first two finishers Lady Prancelot and Hostess had clear outside rally wide trips. In that race, she saved ground passing the finish line for the first time and saved ground through the first half mile. As the pace began to quicken into and around the far turn, she continued racing on the rail and into the stretch where she attempted to get outside but was in tight Maxim Rate and the leader made the hole not there and Alonso Quinonez had to alter course to the inside in the final sixteenth of a mile and she was clear third. Both her runner-up performance in the paceless Allowance race won by Colonial Creed and her troubled third in the Honeymoon was at 1-⅛ miles and she now cuts back to one-mile the distance of her maiden victory three races back. In addition, she will find early pace for her late kick as TimeformUS anticipates the San Clemente being run at a fast pace with DEVILS DANCE, HARMLESS, and stablemate KALLINKI all vying for the early lead and Over Emphasize should drop over into mid-pack position and produce one late run as she owns the field’s best TimeformUS late pace rating. She has returned with two works including a best of eighteen half mile spin in 48 ⅖ on July 15 where National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “Q up; full of beans late rolling late in 24.3, 48.2. Set for utmost.” I expect Over Emphasize to deliver a career best performance on the cut back in distance and with plenty of speed signed on for her late kick at a price. 

Wagering Strategy: 

$25 WIN bet on (6) OVER EMPHASIZE at 5-1 or better. 

Race 10: (5) BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE)

A son of Declaration of War, BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) ships into Del Mar as part of the Ship and Win program and has hit the board only once in his last three starts but a closer inspection of each start reveals that this Irish bred gelding needs a ground saving trip and plenty of early speed to set up for his late kick and he should find that scenario in today’s finale at Del Mar. After breaking his maiden in late February at Gulfstream Park, he returned on Kentucky Derby week on May 2 at Churchill Downs and suffered a wide trip debacle in a productive race where the winner, Voting Control, won by 2-¼ widening lengths making his first start since the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. In that race, he was parked three to four wide around the first turn and continued racing that wide down the backstretch pressing a slow pace. He continued racing wide into and around the far turn and was wisely wrapped up inside the final furlong to finish ahead of one rival to be ninth beaten eight-lengths. This May 2 Allowance event produced Pillar Mountain who won his next two starts and fifth place finisher Clear for Action returned to win his next start. He was reeled back three weeks later and with a different trip he produced a career best performance to run second earning career best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure behind the perfect trip winner Get Western. Instead of being parked wide into the first turn, new jockey Adam Beschizza got BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) over to the rail into the first turn and he was able to save ground behind the long shot loose leader Discovered. He was angled off the hedge into the clear in the stretch and was second best as Get Western got first run but lost nothing in defeat finishing almost two-lengths clear of the rest of the field. In his most recent, he suffered a wide trip throughout racing three wide into and around the first turn, was parked four wide on the backstretch, and made a premature midrace move into the teeth of a fast pace coded red by TimeformUS and ran evenly through the stretch to split the twelve horse in sixth. He will now make his first start at Del Mar for trainer Steve Miyadi who does well with new acquisitions (86 TimeformUS trainer rating) and he should get the trip to deliver his best performance. TimeformUS anticipates a very fast pace with one dimensional front runners Snazzy Dresser, Factorial, and Foray all having raced or pressed red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their most recent starts. If that pace scenario happens, I expect new rider Norbertto Arroyo Jr to take BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) to the inside in the first turn, stalk in midpack a lively pace, and produce one late run at a nice price in the finale. 

Wagering Strategy: 

$25 WIN on (5) BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) at 5-1 or better. 

Gato Del Oro Looks to Shine in Shared Belief Stakes

BEST BET: GATO DEL ORO (Race 7, 4-1)

Race 6: Allowance N2X/Optional $62,500, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds and upward

SKELTON PASS (#6, 6-1) is a selection that will attempt to the buck the current track profile at one-mile on this turf course. Through August 23, 2017, there have been 40 races at today’s one-mile distance on turf with only 4 of them won gate to wire for a 10% rate. However, if I get the right price on a horse then flexibility is warranted and Skelton Pass falls in that profile. Prior to his previous attempt at Del Mar, he finished a non-excuse third down the hillside turf course on June 9 where he stalked the fast pace set by the uncontested leader David’s Memory early, moved up down the hill and into the main turf course, but lugged in behind the winner at mid-stretch, refused to switch to his right lead until very late and just missed in a blanket three-horse photo finish. This was not a particularly strong race as it produced one winner, one second-place finish, and one-third place finish with four horses finishing off the board in there next start. He was claimed by trainer Mark Glatt for $40,000 off this third-place finish and returned from a fifty-one day layoff on July 30 where he received plenty of wagering support going off as the third choice at 5-1 and he finished third beaten less than two-lengths behind Tequila Joe and today’s rival Newsman. When I reviewed that race it was this gelding by Temple City that ran the best race because he won the early pace battle but lost the war to two opportunistic closers. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, this bay gelding “prompted the pace early then dueled onto the backside, took a short advantage around the far turn, remained in battle through the drive, lost the lead deep stretch, weakened inside the final part, barely won the photo for third.” This was an excellent race because the pace rival he dueled with through the first six furlongs, To the Bar, weaken badly to finish 8th beaten 4-½ lengths and the rival that stalked that duel in third, Cimpl Man, weaken to finish 7th beaten 4-¼ lengths with the first two finishers rallied from 7th and 9th. He returns at this same class level without the claiming price of $62,500 which is a positive sign and he came back with a stellar five furlong move in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B+ stating “best drill to date going clear with a zippy late 3f in 35.3 striding out like a happy sort. Seems set for best.” The biggest factor for him being the top choice has to deal with the anticipated pace scenario. Without To the Bar in this field, Skelton Pass appears he will be loose on an uncontested lead in a situation that TimeformUS feels will favor horses on or near the early lead. Tyler Baze retains the mount for trainer Mark Glatt who has won with 4 of his last 8 starters since August 20.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (6) SKELTON PASS at 4-1 or better.

Main Exacta: 6-4. Small reverse.

Smaller Exactas: 6-5, 6-7. No reverse.

$5 Pick 3: 6 / 4 / 2, 5, 6, 9 = 1 x 1 x 4 x $5 = $20

$4 Pick 3: 4 / 4 / 2, 5, 6, 9 = 1 x 1 x 4 x $4 = $16

Race 7: $100,000 Shared Belief Stakes, 1-Mile, Three-year olds

GATO DEL ORO (#4, 4-1) is a three-year old that really caught my eye in his second start on June 10 when he broke his maiden by 1-½ lengths where the trouble comment of “Squeezed Start, Inside” does not do justice to the trip this son of Medaglia D’Oro encountered. According to the HR Trip Notes, “Broke slow, being pinched back at the start, making his way under a hold along the inside to lead after a quarter of a mile, gradually putting away his pace rivals in the turn, kicking home strong enough while slowly drifting out to keep the late challenger at bay.” He earned at the time a career best 89 Beyer Speed Figure and that figure was validated when his pace rival in that race, The Rule of King’s, returned to break his maiden for a $75,000 claiming price with a career best 91 Beyer Speed Figure. His next start would be versus winners and around two turns which are two difficult obstacles for a young horse and this Richard Baltas trainee proved that he handle those two tasks in impressive fashion on opening day July 19 at Del Mar. The HR Trip Notes stated “Broke beautifully, settled on the flank of the pacesetter, bore down on the lead in the far turn, took over in hand, chased to the wire,” with an excellent gallop out after the wire like a prospect that was stakes bound earning career best 93 Beyer Speed Figure and 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The early pace was very fast according to Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+17, +9) and the early pace took its toll on those on or near the front end as horses that chased Gato Del Oro weaken to finish 6th, 7th, and 10th beaten 11-¼, 11-½, and 19-¼ lengths respectively. The $150,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase is out of a dam that produced Grade 1 winners Pussycat Doll and is a full sibling to Jimmy Creed is now realistically placed in this age restricted stakes event where he will take on Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner Gormley and Grade 1 Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Battle of Midway but I feel that we have not seen the best from this Richard Baltas trainee. National Turf’s Andy Harrington feels this colt can only get better after he witness his best of sixteen six-furlong move in 1:11 ⅖ on August 12 that he stated in this B+ move “big drill breaking 4 lengths clear from Inordinate going 35.3 waiting on that one in the lane going 59.4 then finishing with a rush in 111.4 to the 7f pole, galloping well in 125.2. Streaker gets better and better; Bejarano up and blinkers on.” If Battle of Midway with new blinkers elects to go for the early lead I expect jockey Rafael Bejarano to place his mount in second right off that rival’s flank before making his run at the leader into and around the far turn. I felt one week ago that this colt will go off favored but when I found out on Wednesday that Battle of Midway and Gormley are in the same race I had more confidence because now we will get a price on a colt that has the potential to win a Grade 1 race in the future. He is my BEST BET OF THE MEET and I expect a career best performance from this regally bred colt.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (4) GATO DEL ORO at 7-2 or better

Main Exactas: 4-3, 4-7. No reverse.  

Race 9: Grade 2 Pat O’Brien, 7 Furlongs, Three-year olds and upward

BLAMEITONTHELAW (#5, 12-1) is a horse that will benefit from the unfortunate scratch of the morning line favorite Danzig Candy as now this race is wide open and lacks a confirmed pacesetter. The son of Blame recorded a victory and two second place finishes from four previous starts sprinting on the main track but signs showed that this John Sadler trainee was rounding into form when he finished an excellent second behind Ransom the Moon on April 30 at Santa Anita. In that race, he trailed early behind a three-horse battle for the early lead that went moderate fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (-3, -5) for the first half mile. He moved up between rivals leaving the backstretch and made a three wide run on the far turn to challenge eventual winner Ransom the Moon all the way to mid-stretch and was well clear of the rest of the field finishing 4-¼ lengths in front of the third-place finisher earning a then career best 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The strength of that race was flattered when the winner returned to win Grade 2 Kona Gold, was second in the Grade 2 San Carlos Handicap, and won the Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes here at Del Mar. He returned to the turf down the hillside turf course in his next race and finished a clear second behind the gate to wire winner Tiz A Billy. He returned to the Del Mar main track on July 21 the scene where he broke his maiden in his career debut in August 2015 and switched to Evan Roman for the first time and the result was game victory earning a career best 98 Beyer Speed Figure and the field’s top last race 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. For a horse that had not shown a lot of early speed, Blame It on the Law showed that asset where he was inside of a four-horse speed duel through blazing fractions of 22.01 opening quarter and 44.26 second half mile, he was passed by Distinctive B into the stretch, re-rallied along the inside into the stretch, and pulled clear towards the wire to win by a half-length. The race was flattered when the fourth-place finisher, American Pastime, came back to win Allowance N2X earning improved 96 Beyer Speed Figure. The pace was enervating earning above average Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+11, +10) good enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figure. Moreover, the half mile split is the fastest of the 30 races at 6-½ furlongs this meet. Two of the four pace rivals weaken badly to finish 6th beaten 8-½ lengths and 8th beaten 14-¼ lengths. Lastly, Blame it on the Law was the only horse on July 21 card that won pressing the pace from the inside as the four other sprints on that program were won by horses off the pace running on the outside paths noted by the blue TimeformUS race rating box. He has come back with four works including five furlong move from the gate on August 13 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Retains speed.” He should get a good trip either on the lead as the speed of this field or in a pace pressing role outside of Mr. Hinx and Moe Candy. In a race that is wide open Blame It on the Law is good alternative with his affinity for the Del Mar main track and pace scenario that should sit his pace pressing running style at a hint of a price.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (5) BLAMEITONTHELAW at 6-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 5-3, 5-4, 5-10. Small reverse.

Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Three-year olds and upward

CHIDAMAC (#6, 8-1) is a horse that is fresh face in a race where the majority of the field exit the July 28 maiden race won by Kings River King. The rest of the field behind that winner are filled with trail maidens as they are winless in nineteen starts and six of those entrants return in the same race I am taking a stand against them all with the new face Chidamac. This son of McCann’s Mojave was sent off at 30-1 in his career debut and he had little pedigree to suggest that sprinting on the main track is what he wanted to do. His dam, Chichim, won seven of twenty-six starts with three of her wins sprinting on the main track and three of her wins sprinting on the turf. McCann’s Mojave was route horse that won the Sunshine Millions Classic, All American, and Berkeley Handicaps at a distance of ground. Also, trainer Matthew Chew does not crack his horses to win in their career debut preferring to give his starters a race. In the past five years, he is winless in thirteen starts with two of them finishing in the money. With a pedigree that lacked win early and trainer that does not crack them early to win, one can understand why Chidamac was 30-1 at post time and he actually ran a respectable race to split the field in fifth behind gate to wire first time starter winner Raul Rosas who won by five and three-quarter lengths earning an excellent 87 Beyer Speed Figure. According to the HR Trip Notes, Chidamac “hopped at the break and bumped a foe to spot the field three lengths, settled in last after his rider lost and regained his iron, well back in the far turn, grinded home past spent foes in the lane.” The validity of that figure has already been confirmed. The seventh-place finisher, Make it a Triple, improved seventeen Beyer Speed Figure points to break his maiden for $20,000 with a 75 Beyer Speed Figure. The second-and-eighth place finishers, Vegas Vic and Tule Fog, improved fifteen and twenty-one Beyer Speed Figure points respectively finishing second and third respectively in their next start behind Morgan S on August 18 earning 89 and 76 Beyer Speed Figures. He has bounced back with three works including his last two moves on August 12 and August 19 that really caught National Turf’s Andy Harrington that raved about them giving it a B including the former work where he was under a “light hold late outside next out 2 year old winner Bob's All In finishing with some left late. Should like any added distance.” Thiago Pereria remains aboard for his second career start and I expect major improvement on the surface switch and stretch out to two turns at a nice price.

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (6) CHIDAMAC at 6-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 6-3, 6-9, 6-10. Small reverse for each.  

Constellation Looks to Turn the Tables in Rancho Bernardo

BEST BET: TOOREEN DANCER (Race 7, 7-2)

Race 6: Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo, 6-½ Furlongs, Fillies and mares

This field of five might be small on quantity but it sure makes up in quality as the entire field has combined with twenty-four career victories with three Graded Stakes winners in this field. TimeformUS pace projector sees this race with three horses vying for the early lead among longshot Rockport Babe, Bendable, and Constellation. Muny Spirit will drop back behind this trio of leaders with Skye Diamond trailing the field early but should be no more than two-lengths behind the early leaders after the first pace call.

Skye Diamonds enters this race with the field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure (99) and TimeformUS Speed Figure (121). Constellation leads the field in TimeformUS early pace rating and Skye Diamonds leads the field in TimeformUS late pace rating. Despite the numerous accolades for Skye Diamonds, this distance over this surface might be her undoing when you consider the track profile this meet.

Sprints have always favored early speed and none more this meet than at 6-½ furlongs. There have been nineteen races run at 6-½ furlongs and amazing fourteen of them were won by horses on the lead or less than one-length off the lead at the first pace call. That is a 74% strike rate. Horses that will be forwardly placed on or near the lead will get top preference and that is lead by TimeformUS leader in early pace CONSTELLATION (#4) who looks to turn the tables on Skye Diamonds. This daughter of Bellamy Road is one of three runners with a Graded Stakes victory and she scored her first victory in a Grade 1 in the La Brea Stakes on December 26 where she parlayed a perfect pace prompting trip through moderate early fractions to run down the pacesetter and second choice Finley’s Lucky Charm earning career best 95 Beyer Speed Figure. This victory was important not only because of the Grade 1 black type she earned but she did so over a monster “key” race field. The runner-up Finley’s Lucky Charm won her next three starts and missed a fourth when she finished a neck behind Paula’s Silver Lining in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga. The third-place finisher, Enola Gray, returned to win three of her next four starts concluded with a gate to wire victory in the Grade 3 Wilshire Stakes at Santa Anita. Lastly, also ran Perfect Pic returned to win her next two starts. After subpar effort in the Las Flores run during a driving rainstorm, she returned to top form with an excellent second-place finish behind the streaking Paula’s Silver Lining in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland. In that race she was asked for speed and battled in a three-horse speed duel between two longshots Ponder Lea and Kathballu through a 23.03 second opening quarter which earned above average Moss Pace Figure (+14). She put away those two pace rivals to assume command around the far turn, raced extremely off the rail on the turn and into the stretch as the favoriter Paula’s Silver Lining loomed up inside of her to challenge Constellation and she refused to quit losing by a neck where the winner went on to win Grade 1 Humana Distaff and Grade 2 Honorable Miss. Constellation lost nothing in defeat as her two pace rivals weaken to finish fifth beaten 4-½ lengths and eighth beaten 7-¼ lengths. She finished in front of last year’s BC Filly and Mare Sprint winner Finest City but was no match behind opportunistic stalking winner Skye Diamonds last time in the Grade 2 Great Lady M at Los Alamitos. She has bounced back with four works including two of them that earned the bullet designation at Los Alamitos. As mentioned her early speed is incredible asset at this distance and in her second race off the three-month layoff look for Jerry Hollendorfer trainee to be stronger filly to score minor upset with Flavien Prat reunited in the irons.

The Play: If I get 5-2 or higher on Constellation I will recommend a WIN bet on her but I am going to focus my action in this race in Pick 4 because I look to beat the favorite Spooky Woods in the next race.

WIN bet on (4) CONSTELLATION at 5-2 or better.

Pick 4: 4 w/ 6 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10    = 1 x 1 x 4 x 2 x $2  = $8

Pick 4: 2, 3 w/ 6 / 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10   = 2 x 1 x 4 x 2 x $1 = $16

Pick 4: 4 w/ 1, 7 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10 = 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 x $1 =$16

Pick 4: 4 w/ 6 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 2, 7       = 1 x 1 x 4 x 2 x $1 = $8  

Race 7: Allowance N1X/Optional $75,000, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds

The first leg of the final Pick 3 on Sunday’s card is excellent gambling event and presents a pace scenario that could go faster than TimeformUS pace projector predicts. Lyrics and Painting Corners have either set or pressed red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their most recent starts and those two compose the early pace. Lake Time, Sabaurai, and morning line favorite Spooky Woods look to sit a garden trip behind this early duel. War Mocassin, Tooreen Dancer, and Cynthiana are three horses with potent late kick.

The morning line favorite that I will take a stand against in this race is Spooky Woods who will make her first start on the turf returning off almost a two-month layoff. Based on her pedigree and her trainer’s history with starters trying turf for the first time at Del Mar, Spooky Woods looks to be a vulnerable choice. He is by 13% turf sire in Ghostzapper and the dam Winter Forest has produced five starters with four winners but none were turf winners. Brigade won 3-of-21 starts on the main track but was 0-for-5 routing on the turf. Dixie Winter is a maiden after eleven starts and was 0-for-3 routing on the turf. Next, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has worked her twice on the turf this meet but previous history suggest that morning works on the surface does not translate to success in the afternoon. In the past five years, Jerry Hollendorfer has connected at paltry 4% (23/1-1-6) with his starters trying the turf for the first time at Del Mar. Despite the glorying reports from National Turf’s Andy Harrington on Spooky Woods two turf works, the lack of pedigree plus trainer Jerry Hollendorfer lack of success with this type makes her a bet against.

One of the first horses that went on my horses to watch list on opening week returns in this race and thankfully with a positive rider switch. TOOREEN DANCER (#6) was privately purchased by Little Red Feather Racing club after she broke her maiden in her career debut on the all-weather track at Dundalk last November. She defeated a full field of fourteen juveniles where the TimeformUS analyst commented “overcame inexperience to make a winning debut,” and was “open to improvement.” The daughter of Vale of York made her first start off a 254-day layoff on July 21 where she had worked in respectable fashion according to Andy Harrington including a B- move with stablemate Newsman who returned to run second in Allowance N2X on July 30 here at Del Mar. The Phil D’Amato trainee did not get a lot of support at the windows going off at 8-1 and finished seventh beaten 2-¼ lengths behind the gate to wire winner Meadowsweet. A closer examination of that defeat would suggest that Tooreeen Dancer is better than her United States debut would indicate. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, this bay filly was “Three-wide at the rear of the main pack, going forward Four-wide in the turn, making a bold move for the lead turning for home, understandably flattening out in the final 1/16th.” The winner was a deserving winner winning the pace battle over longshot Tiburtina and fending off the challenge of favorite Pacific Wind. However, Tooreen Dancer never had a fair chance. Next to the premature move, she covered thirty-three more feet then the winner according to Trakus. She makes her second start in United States with a significant rider change to Kent Desormeaux who has six turf victories this meet and he should give his filly that patent one-late run in a race with plenty of early speed signed on from Lyrics and Painting Corners. Trainer Phil D’Amato is Del Mar’s leading turf trainer with seven victories and five of those wins happened routing on this turf course. She bounced back with a solid five-furlong spin on the turf on August 2 in 1:02 ⅖ where Andy Harrington commented “Came home happily with Nodiac in this clever looking drill in 38.0, 102.3. Could not separate them here; seems better than last.” I expect improvement in her second start with D’Amato who scores a 100 TimeformUS trainer rating with that move as my BEST BET on the card.

The Play: I look for a pace meltdown in this race to fall apart for the closers. Spooky Woods, Lyrics, and Painting Corners all have early or contending speed to be right up with leading group and over a distance on this turf course that favors stalkers/closers I will structure my wagers with that scenario.

WIN bet on (6) TOOREEN DANCER to WIN at 5-2 or better.

Main Exactas: 6-1, 6-7. Small reverse for each.

Trifecta part-wheel: 6 w/ 1, 7 w/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 = $16 for a $2 Wager

Trifecta part-wheel: 1, 7 w/ 6 w/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 =  $8 for a $1 Wager

Pick 3: 6 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10     = 1 x 4 x 2 x $2 = $16

Pick 3: 1, 7 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10 = 2 x 4 x 2 x $1 = $16

Pick 3: 6 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 2, 7       = 1 x 4 x 2 x $1 = $8

Race 8: Allowance N1X/Optional $40,000, 1-1/16 Miles, Three-year olds and up

The first leg of the late Daily Double will only be the third race at today’s mile and a sixteenth distance this meet and the TimeformUS pace projector feels this race does not favor a specific running style but two horses have the most early speed. Tribal Jewel will look to go for the early lead with Stringent either on the lead or pressing the pace in second. Brimstoned, Rocket Fuel, and Irish Freedom are trio of runners that will be tracking this leading duo down the backstretch. Horses that will be charging with strong late kick are General Kitten, Ain’t Misbehavin, and Saint Dermot.

The field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure belongs to General Kitten (87) and the field’s top last race TimeformUS Speed Figure on the main track goes to Tribal Jewel (114). The latter also owns the field’s top TimeformUS early pace rating with four horses tie with the field’s top TimeformUS late pace rating General Kitten, Ain’t Misbehavin, Saint Dermot, and Irish Freedom.

Although there have been only two races at mile and sixteenth there has been twenty-six route races this meet and seventeen of them were won by horses on the lead or within one-length of the lead after the first half mile. This information boils this race down to horses with speed to lead or sit forwardly placed to the early pace. STRINGENT (#2) has not visited the Winner’s Circle since June 2015 and so far he is winless in six starts this year with two third-place finishes. He had only one race around two turns on May 21 at Santa Anita and he finished a respectable third beaten less than two-lengths in a race that set up perfectly for the opportunistic stalker nine-year old Soi Phet (12-for-53). In that race the son of Lemon Drop Kid went out for the early lead vying for the pace between Candy Promises and Kristo early through moderate early fractions for the first half mile. He poked in his head in front turning for home putting away Candy Promises but was out gamed towards the wire by the latter and out finished by the stalking Soi Phet to lose by only 1-¾ lengths. He earned a career best 92 Beyer Speed Figure on the main track. The David Hofmans trainee returned from a two-month layoff on July 21 here at Del Mar where he was turning back to six and a half furlongs and he tired badly to finish sixth beaten 8-½ lengths but this margin of defeat was the result of being involved in a heated and contested pace battle. The home-bred flashed his early speed in the two-path racing in four-horse speed duel through a wicked 22.01 second opening quarter and 44.26 second half mile that earn above average Moss Pace Figures (+10, +11) and earned red coded TimeformUS pace figure. He was under a drive and began to drop back midway on the far turn finishing sixth earning the field’s second highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure of 113. From the first fifteen races at six and a half furlongs this meet, the 44.26 second half mile is the fastest this meet. He will now stretch out to two turns and in the past three years, David Hofmans connects at 25% (16/4-1-1) with his starters stretching out from a sprint to a route on the main track. He has historically always been a good work horse in the morning and has continued that trend with two bullet works at five and six furlongs including six furlong move at Los Alamitos on August 8 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant commented “always stylish worker was reaching in his usual noteworthy manner. Situation normal.” After pressing an enervating pace in his last start, he should find himself on the lead on the stretch out which has been a winning profile this meet in route races and should be a price with form clouded by four out of the money efforts this year.

The Play: STRINGENT is the selection to go gate to wire but he will not be the only horse I will use on my wagers. Morning line favorite Tribal Jewel wins too many races not to merit respect (12-for-48), Rocket Fuel who was bothered by a slow start from the rail on opening weekend behind fast and streaking winner Prime Issue, and Irish Freedom who ran better than looked in his only start at this distance.

WIN bet on (2) STRINGENT at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 2-1, 2-10, 2-11. Small reverse for each.

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 1-Mile Turf, Two-year old Fillies

The finale does not have sufficient amount of data for accurate Pace Projector. Only two horses, Poco Suenos and morning line favorite Dawn Traveller, are the only horses in the field with turf experience. The remainder of the field will make their first start on turf and around two turns. Insist on a horse with a price and luckily this race represents that opportunity.

The July 23 maiden race won by Newport Breeze only earned a 60 Beyer Speed Figure but that race might be stronger than the final speed figure would suggest. The runner-up, Dancing Belle, improved twelve Beyer Speed Figure points to a 70 when she ran second to Spectator in last week’s Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes to indicate that maiden race is better than the final time. Two horses exit that race but one of them is especially well bred for the surface switch to turf and two turns. LADYBUG (#5) was all the rage in her debut going off as the 2-1 second choice behind post time favorite Krissy’s Manicure based on her work tab. She had worked a series of B- works according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a impressive five furlong work from the gate on July 3 that Andy commented “Prat up; broke in good order leading barn mate Whirling all the way in 35.4, 48.0, 100.2. Even keeled and steady.” However two items that persuaded me off this filly in her career debut. Firstly, trainer Richard Mandella had won only once in his previous seven first time starters making their debut in a dirt sprint maiden special weight at Del Mar. Secondly, Ladybug’s pedigree was tilted to routing on the turf and my belief was that this daughter of Medaglia D’Oro was going to need a race in her career debut. In that race, Ladybug was parked in a congested battle for the early lead racing four wide in a six horse scramble for the early lead through a fast 22.00 second flat opening quarter which was fast enough to earn above average Moss Pace Figure (+16) and red coded TimeformUS pace figure. She was the first to back out of that speed duel into the far turn and was not asked through the stretch meaning seventeen-length margin of defeat means little. She will now stretch out and try turf for the first time and based on trainer Richard Mandella success with those moves and her pedigree Ladybug should appreciate the change. In the past five years, Richard Mandella has won at 21% (14/3-3-3) with second time starters making their first start on the turf and in a route with two of those winners happened at Del Mar: Dreamologist (September 4, 2015, $1.80-1) and Ky. Colonel (August 10, 2016, $2.20-1). Ladybug is by Medaglia D’Oro who connects at 16% with two-year old routing on the turf and her dam has produced five winners from six starters with two of those starters winning on the turf. She returned with a half mile move in 48 ⅘ on August 1 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “breezed a 1/2 mile out of the gate in 48.2 but clearly appeared more fit, galloping well in 101.0 out again 114.1. Stepping up some.” Although Flavien Prat leaves Ladybug for the morning line favorite Dawn Traveller, she gets the services of Drayden Van Dyke who has scored six turf victories this meet. I expect major improvement on the surface switch and additional distance and the higher priced of my four main contenders in this race.

Attention should also be given to morning line favorite DAWN TRAVELLER (#10) who finished fourth beaten only a length in her career debut at the Curragh where TimeformUS analyst commented that she is “open to improvement.” The gray daughter of Dragon Pulse ran into a strong field as the runner-up, Now You’re Talking, came back to finish fourth in a twenty-three horse field in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. The third-place finisher Clemmie went on to win the Group 3 Grangecon Stud Stakes at Curragh on July 2 and came back twelve days later to win Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket. Trainer Simon Callaghan wins at 23% rate (31/7-1-2) with foreign shippers making their North American debut in a turf route including Beau Recall (January 29, 2017, $8.80-1) for these same owners. Flavien Prat is lured away from Ladybug for this filly and if she improves off her solid debut race she will prove tough to beat in second career start.

The Play: Ladybug and Dawn Traveller are my co-top choices and we will round out my exactas with Gia Lula who looks to get a great ground saving trip from post position two with winning connections and exits potential key race on July 23 and Cinnamon Twist who worked in company with Dawn Traveller and is half sibling to two-time turf winner Oregon.

WIN bet on (5) LADYBUG at 5-1 or better.

Main Exactas: 5-2, 5-7, 5-10. No reverse.

Main Exactas: 10-2, 10-5, 10-7. No reverse.

Turf Racing and Return of Arrogate Highlight Saturday's Del Mar Card

Race 6:

I have a special place in my heart for horses that might not be very well bred but run their hearts out every time they step to the race track. Howdy Kingkowboy (#11) is 20-1 on the morning line but TimeformUS pace projector has him clear on an uncontested lead going into the backstretch and if left alone he can be a very tough rival to run down in the stretch. He was the beaten favorite in the Tempe Handicap on March 11 but did everything right but win where he won the early pace battle but lost the war. In that race he battled between Cherokee Legacy and Factored In into and around the first turn and did not get any breather down the backstretch Factored In continued to press him all the way around the final turn. The Kodiak Kowboy gelding finally put away that rival into the stretch and opened up a 1-½ length lead at mid-stretch but was caught right on the wire by He’s Munnie who rallied from perfect spot in fifth after a half mile to win by a head. Howdy Kingkowboy ran the better race winning the early pace battle that saw his two speed rivals weaken to finish 4th and 7th and only caught on the wire by a perfect trip stalking winner. His next turf race happen on June 3 at Santa Anita Park where he was up for a claiming price of $50,000 and even though he only won by three-quarters of a length he showed so much fight and determination to win that it was impressive watching the race replay. He showed his typical early speed to battle head and head with Giro Candito early with Squared Squared tracking that speed duel in third early. He was able to shake loose from those two speed rivals and drifted out past the quarter pole as the two favorites ranged up from off the pace to challenge Howdy Kingkowboy and actually poked their head in front but this gelding refused to quit easily battling back between rivals to win by three-quarters of a length and galloping out well in front after the wire. The two pace rivals nearest the winner weaken badly to finish fourth and fifth as this effort is better than any speed figure would indicate because he showed determination after an intense speed duel early. He continues to hold his speed according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington who assigned him a B- for his previous two works both with Bryan Pena aboard who is back in the irons. He will be in front going into the first turn and if he can somehow ration his speed effectively the nine furlong event he could prove tough rival to run down at what should be boxcar odds.

Race 8:

This race is filled with plenty of horses that are either mid-pack, plodders, and closers. This race only has two real confirmed speed types in Khaleesi and our top pick Ok Doll (#11) at 9-2 on the morning line. The daughter of First Samurai exits a third-place finish back on January 29 where her jockey Rafael Bejarano rated her too much behind a very slow early pace won by the pace pressing winner Peach Cove in a race that produced TWO next time out winners. The race that sticks out and where she should enjoy a similar trip as today was back on December 29, 2016 at Santa Anita at today’s one-mile distance where she was able to use her early speed to track the pacesetter Nine Point Nine early and wear that rival down to win by three-quarters of a length racing on her wrong lead to the wire. She will make her first start off a 174-day layoff but note she ran well twice off layoffs. She was second beaten a half-length at odds of 15-1 returning off a 78-day layoff in her only start over the Del Mar turf course on August 27, 2016 where she led at each call but was caught right on the wire by the favored stalker Nodiac and she returned from a 69-day layoff when she won that aforementioned December 29 race over Nine Point Nine. TimeformUS pace projector has her pressing the pace outside of Khaleesi and she will get first run on the mid-pack and closing types for winning trainer and jockey combination of Richard Baltas and jockey Rafael Bejarano.

Race 10:

My stand against in this race is the morning line favorite Lucky Soul (#7). The son of Lookin At Lucky finished a fast closing fourth and galloped out in the front of the entire field in his debut on April 20 behind subsequent stakes winner Arms Runner. He stretched out to two turns on May 27 and finished a fast closing third beaten a head behind the last to first winner Miner’s Light. Despite that margin of defeat, that race has not returned to be a productive one as only the fifth-place finisher, Oregon, came back to win with the rest of the field producing one third-place finish and six others came back to finish off the board in there next race. His lack of early speed is a concern because this race only has confirmed front runner and that pacesetter is the selection in this field along with another horse exceptionally bred to run long on the grass.

Ready Aim (#9) will now stretch out to two turns after preparing for this event in two sprints at Santa Anita. The son of Into Mischief has run sneaky well in each of his two starts and should show his form on the stretch out to two turns and trying turf for the first time. He finished seventh beating three horses to the wire in his debut on May 6 run over a wet fast sealed main track where he ran greenly but showed ability in defeat. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, he “raced at the tail of the field, ran in spots while under a drive heading into the far turn, rallied five-wide into the stretch, flattened out mid-stretch.” That maiden race returned to be a monster “key” race where the winner The Critical Way returned win the state-bred Danzig Stakes at Penn National with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure, fifth-place finisher Gato Del Oro returned to break his maiden with an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, and the sixth-place finisher The Party Factor returned to break his maiden with a 70 Beyer Speed Figure. The Richard Mandella trainee “ran in spots” in his debut and in order to correct this issue the blinkers were added in his second start on June 10 and he ran into another “key” race field where he showed signs of form. In that race, HR Trip Notes commented this colt “Showed pace from the outside near the front, sitting just off heading into the turn, making a brief challenge in the turn, with the run petering out in mid-stretch.” The race earned an 89 Beyer Speed Figure and that speed figure was validated when the winner Gato Del Oro returned to win Allowance N1X on opening day with 93 Beyer Speed Figure and the sixth-place finisher dropped for a $75,000 claiming price and won with an 84 Beyer Speed Figure as the two horses that vied for the lead with Ready Aim already returned to win their next start. He is a half brother to two turf winners including full sister Forever Famous who won one of seven starts on the turf.  Formulator Fact: In the past five years, trainer Richard Mandella wins at gaudy 36% (11/4-2-3) with his starters switching from dirt to turf and stretching from sprint to route in a maiden special weight event. He turned in crisp five furlong move here at Del Mar on July 17 in 1:00 ⅗ that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Last 4f with a maiden mate working steady in 48.3. Should like any added distance.” TimeformUS pace projector has this bay colt loose on an uncontested early lead and on the stretch out should be a tough rival to run down under Drayden Van Dyke.

Borg (#5) is the one horse that since his debut on May 6 I have patiently waited for this colt to stretch out to two turns and try grass because his pedigree is strictly about running long on the grass. He managed to run very well to finish fourth beaten five-lengths in his career debut on May 6 where the HR Trip Notes commented “traveled at the tail of the field, niggled at to keep pace down the backstretch, angled off the rail into the stretch, weaved through traffic in the lane, dove to the rail, flew home on his wrong lead, galloped out powerfully.” This was the same “key” race that Ready Aim exits that produced THREE next time out winners. Even though I knew he would be best running long on the grass, he was top choice for me in his second career start on July 1 in his first race for trainer Simon Callaghan and he managed to split the field finishing fourth behind the impressive gate to wire winner Pavel who romped with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. This son of Candy Ride was the only horse finishing in the stretch as the first three finishers ran 1st, 3rd, and 2nd after a half mile and this was a respectable performance in defeat. He now will stretch out to two turns and try grass for the first time and based on his breeding this should pose no issue. His dam She’s Sensational won 6 of 16 starts but was 4 for 8 routing on the turf. Moreover, she produced Our Way who won 4 of 12 starts on the turf thus Borg should have no problem stretching out or switching to the turf for the first time. In addition, he has come back to breeze very well according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington with a half mile spin in 49 ⅖ that Andy gave a B stating “Breezed fluidly out of last try going the last 1/4 in 24.0. Sure seems much better than record so far.” He should find himself tracking the pace in comfortable spot in the first flight behind expected pacesetter Ready Aim and attempt to run down that rival in the stretch as those two are my top choices in the finale.