Race 5: Allowance N1X/Optional Claiming $40,000, 5 Furlongs Turf, Three-and-up
TimeformUS pace projector predicts the early pace for this turf sprint does not favor a specific running style. From the rail the morning line favorite Schillaires will go straight to the early lead but will find company early with Gusty Ruler and Tomasino applying early pressure in the first quarter of a mile. Well Maybe and K Thirty Eight will be out sprinted for the early lead and settle in behind the dueling leaders waiting to get first run. Secreto Primero, Smack Talk, and Souper Knight will hope for a pace meltdown to set up for their late charge.
Secreto Primero (#3) does not project to be anywhere near the early lead as TimeformUS pace projector sees this First Samurai gelding towards the rear of the field but his only win sprinting on the turf indicates he has more tactical speed. He made his second start on turf on May 27 returning from 475-day layoff and he emerged victorious in a race he was going to need. The bay or brown gelding stalked the uncontested leader Blue Navy Blue two deep down the hill and through the right handed turn, put in his charge to take over the lead past mid-stretch, led, switched back to his incorrect left lead towards the wire and held safely over the pacesetter to win by three-quarters of length. The lead change to the wire was most likely the result of him being tired off the long layoff. The form of this race was flattered when the fourth place finisher Spanish Hombre returned to win his next two starts with Beyer Speed Figures of 86 and 91 respectively. The Michael Machosky trainee stretched out to two turns on turf at one-mile on June 19 and scored by a neck after a perfect tracking trip. In that race he settled in fourth behind a moderate pace set by longshot Red Car Mac with eventual runner up All Star Parade pressing the pace in second. He engaged the leaders three wide leaving the far turn and it required the entire length of the stretch for him to get by All Star Parade to win by a neck. This race proved to “key” event as the second and fourth-place finishers returned to win their next starts with Beyer Speed Figures of 80 and 79 respectively. He went from the turf to the main track on opening day July 15 and lost all chance at the start when he took up briefly at the start, remained very wide on the backstretch chasing a very quick early pace set by longshot Mad Bum for a half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+9, +7), made a small move leaving the backstretch to inch closer, and retreated to the rear of the field to finish seventh beaten seven lengths. The amount of ground he lost was evident as he covered 27 feet more than the winner according to Trakus. He returns to his preferred surface turf and returned with an easy three furlong blowout on July 30 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Easy short spin here hitting in a relaxed manner late.” Norberto Arroyo Jr. takes over in the irons and should look for a stalk and pounce trip at a hint of a price.
In my exotics I will recommend using the likely pacesetter Schillaires (#2) who deserves another chance on the turf when you consider the dam side of his pedigree is strictly turf laden family. The dam Millionaire produced two-time turf winner Redamite and turf winner Runforthewoods. He returned from a 359-day layoff on June 4 and was going to need the race off the long layoff. He showed his typical early speed to battle inside with his pace rival Tomasino as those two opened up a 2-½ and 2-length lead on the their nearest pursuer through very quick early fractions of 21.65 and 44.56 seconds for the half mile. He dropped back into the main turf course and weaken to split the field of ten. He made his second start following almost a year layoff on June 25 returning to the main track and was able to parlay an uncontested lead into a gate to wire victory. He broke right on top to get over to the rail and set the early pace through moderate early fractions per Moss Pace Figures (0, -1), shook clear of his rivals on the turn and won ridden out to the wire earning career best 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The figure was confirmed when the runner-up Basinca returned to run second beaten a nose at the same Starter Allowance level with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. The Peter Miller trainee looms as the main rival they must catch as your morning line favorite.
The Play:
WIN bet on (3) Secreto Primero
Main Exacta box: 2-3.
Race 6: Allowance N1X/Optional Claiming $20,000 Cal Bred, 1-Mile, Three and up
TimeformUS pace projector sees this race developing at an early pace that does not favor a specific running style but on paper does not have a plethora of early speed. The longshot Spun Spivens will go straight for the early lead but will be chased by Accelerant and Dr. Go down the backstretch. Nusret will be tracking the pace in the first flight waiting to get first run on the leader. Horses that hope a fast early pace will materialize for their late kick are Storm Coming Thru, Ain’t Misbehavin, and Plain Wrap.
The stand in this race is against the two morning line favorites: Ain’t Misbehavin and Matriculate. Those two ran first and third at this same class level on July 3 but that was a visually unimpressive race. The winner Ain’t Misbehavin benefited from a perfect rail skimming ride and trip from jockey Kent Desormeaux and his winning 83 Beyer Speed Figure gives him no advantage in this field. Matriculate the second choice on the morning line was able to prompt a very easy pace scenario in that race for the first half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-5, -4) and weaken badly shortening stride past mid-stretch to finish third. There is one horse from that July 3 that I am interesting in betting that is better than his recent starts would suggest.
Dr. Go (#9) has finished in the money once in his last three starts but his last two starts that I want to highlight as those two starts were better than it appears on paper. The Slew’s Tiznow colt finished third beaten a neck on June 9 at this same class level and distance where a misjudged ride cost him victory. In that race he was out-sprinted for the early lead by a kamikaze pace battle between Prime Issue and his pace rival Start a Running opened up a five-length lead next to nearest chaser Dr. Go as those two battled through breakneck early pace for a half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+20, +15). Once the two leaders left the backstretch, jockey Santiago Gonzalez pushed the button too soon asking his mount to go after the two exhausted leaders at the 7/16th pole to grab the lead after six furlongs in a punishing 1:09.95 seconds, opened up a two-length lead at mid-stretch, but the misjudged move into the teeth of a slow pace saw Dr. Go remained a tired horse staying on his incorrect left lead as he was out finished to the wire by the rival he had put away Prime Issue to finish third beaten a neck. When you consider how fast the early pace he chased plus the early move he made into the teeth of this pace he ran better than looked and still earned a competitive 85 Beyer Speed Figure that is within three points of par for this class level (88 Beyer Speed Figure). Despite this good performance he was dismissed at 9-2 on July 3 and he was given a poor ride that is not described in the Pulled,Stalked, Weaken comment in your Daily Racing Form. In that race he broke on top and dueled with longshot pace rival Carlos Dangerous into the first turn but jockey Martin Pedroza grabbed him and he was shuffled back to last racing between rivals behind a slow early pace for half mile per Moss Pace Figures (-5, -4). Once he got clear leaving the backstretch, he launched a three wide move under a ride around the far turn, drifted out wide into the stretch, and tired to finish next to last beaten 11-¾ lengths. The Mike Harrington trainee finds only two other rivals with early speed: Spun Spivens and Accelerant and should fall into an ideal trip pressing the pace or settle just off those two early leaders. He makes a significant rider upgrade from Martin Pedroza to Rafael Bejarano and in the past five years this rider switch has been a winning and profitable move for trainer Mike Harrington. According to DRF Formulator they are 8-6-1-1 the past five years together here at Del Mar for a 75% winning rate.
In my exotics I will use Storm Comin Thru (#2) who ran last beaten 28-¼ lengths on opening day in open Allowance N1X. He drops in class to face California-bred only and is being risked for a $20,00 claiming price which is a realistic move after his last place finish on July 15. However he ran an excellent third well clear of the rest of the field versus open Allowance N1X on June 4 and earned a competitive 90 Beyer Speed Figure which is above average for this class level. Flavien Prat remains in the irons. Nuset (#3) has suffered from back to back tough trips in his last two starts. The Lucky Pulpit ran fourth beaten 7-¾ lengths on May 5 at Santa Anita but had a rough trip according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. The chestnut gelding “Stalked inside, was shuffled back and lost position into and around the far turn, losing his best chance, stayed on the fence in the drive, showed some resiliency to pass horses the final furlong.” This race proved to be a productive as the second and third-place finishers returned to win. He returned from a 58-day layoff on July 3 and ran second behind the favored gate to wire winner Swiss Minister. Once again this former Eddie Truman gelding suffered another tough trip per the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. Broke slowly to lose his best chance, moved up inside to chase the winner past the half-mile pole, within range around the far turn, no match in the stretch, second best. He will make his first start off the claim for trainer Ron Ellis who has won 23% rate (14-for-62) the past five years with that move and comes into this race with a pair B- works per National Turf’s Andy Harrington. Accelerant (#4) enters this race with two victories and one second from his last three starts and had ideal perfect trip in the first race on opening day here at Santa Anita. He settled in third behind runaway leader My Secret Affair and his closest rival My Ole Bud who set rapid pace for half mile per Moss Pace Figures (+27, +17). He inherit the lead as those two rivals weaken badly to finish eighth and ninth, opened a three-length lead at mid-stretch, and held safely to the wire. Loves the Del Mar main track and distance but I doubt he we will get the same ideal pace scenario as he found on opening day.
The Play:
WIN bet on (9) Dr. Go
Main Exacta box key: 9 / 2, 3, 4
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