Race 7: POSTERIZE (#4, 8-1)
Although the TimeformUS pace projector does not have a blue coding to indicate the race shape will favor horses on or near the front end, this open $32,000 claiming sprint does not have a lot of early speed signed on. The clear pacesetter will be I’m Busy making his first start off the claim for Mark Glatt off five and half length victory versus the $20,000 claiming company at Churchill Downs where the horses entered have not won three races. He enjoyed ideal conditions in that race as he was loose on an uncontested early lead through slow early fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (-4,-3) and kicked clear earning a career best 82 and 105 Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure respectively. He will have a pace rival to deal in POSTERIZE who is twice the price on the morning line and has shown the ability to handle pace pressure in the past. The Ian Kruljac trainee is clearly at home at today’s six furlong distance with a record of 6/2-2-0 while she is 11/1-1-2 at other distances. The son of Shackleford most recent two dirt sprints resulted in a win and a second-place finish and that latter performance showed she can take on pace pressure and run a winning effort in defeat. In that race February 16 effort, POSTERIZE was parked four wide in a four-horse battle for the early lead through a 22.09 second opening quarter and continued three wide on the far turn through 45.19 second half mmile. He was able to shake loose from those three pace rivals to opened up length and half lead at mid-stretch only to be run down by the opportunistic stalking winner Tigre Di Slugo to finish second beaten two and quarter lengths to earn a then career best 82 and 107 Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure respectively. His three pace rivals tired to finish fourth, eighth, and tenth as he won the early pace battle but lost the war in a “key” race that saw the third-and-sixth place finishers returned to win. After a failed dirt route and then finishing last in a one-mile turf event, he turned back to six furlongs on June 20 and took advantage of a paceless sprint to score the minor upset. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “went to the lead, set a controlled tempo under pressure, in deep water past the quarter-pole, kicked away at the head of the lane, shifted about, held sway to the wire,” earning a career best 85 Beyer Speed Figure that equals the par for this class level. He exits an eleventh and last place finish on opening weekend where she flashed speed to chase the very fast early pace set by King Eddie in a one-mile turf route who earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and tired to finish last. The turf-to-dirt and route-to-sprint move has proven accurate for Ian Kruljac barn who has won at gaudy 67% (6/4-1-0) in the past five years and none of those four winners went off favored. He finds a field once again not loaded with plethora of early speed as I’m Busy is his only real pace rival and he has drawn the rail. Regular pilot Giovanni Franco should enjoy a pace pressing trip in the clear and if he can duplicate any of his previous two dirt sprints in today’s race he should be a tough rival to run down in the start of today’s late Pick 5.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (4) POSTERIZE at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: 4-1, 4-2. No reverse.
Daily Double part-wheel: #4 Postertize with #1 Bowie’s Hero, #6 Neptune’s Storm
Pick 3 part-wheel: #4 Postertize with #1 Bowie’s Hero, #6 Neptune’s Storm with #8 Adare
Race 8: NEPTUNE’S STORM (#6, 6-1)
The morning line favorite United should be respected as he comes into this race with consecutive victories in the Grade 2 San Marcos and Charles Whittingham. The runner-up to last year’s horse of the year, Bricks and Mortor, might today’s conditions not be ideal for him. Firstly is the distance as he turns back to a mile and an eighth and two of his four wins on the turf have been at mile and a quarter with his two narrow defeats at mile and a half. Secondly, he finds a field that lacks quality early speed to set up for his late kick. Although he has never won in three wins over the Del Mar turf course, NEPTUNE’S STORM will enjoy a decided pace advantage over his field this afternoon as he is the field’s confirmed pacesetter according to TimeformUS pace projector in a field filled with horses that do their best running from midpack or towards the rear of the field. He made his first start off a 149-day layoff in ambitious spot the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile on May 25 where he tired to finish seventh in a race where the early speed among Voodoo Song, Neptune’s Storm, Blitzkrieg, and War of Will set or chased an insanely fast early pace that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures that resulted in a pace collapsed where the first three finishers rallied from eighth, tenth, and sixth after the first half-mile. The form of the fast pace was flattered when War of Will returned to win Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure and Blitzkrieg found a paceless field and won Grade 3 American Handicap with a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. The son of Stormy Atlantic shipped to Golden Gate for the Grade 3 San Francisco Turf Mile and paralyed perfect pace scenario and trip to win by a head over a very game Kiwi’s Dream. In that race, he sat just off the latter for the entire race as those two crawled through slow early fractions earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He poked his head in front at mid-stretch and had to fight all the way to the wire as Kiwi’s Dream refused to yield easily winning by a head in a race that saw the first three finishers run second, first, and third after the first half mile. The form of this race was flattered when Kiwi’s Dream returned to run second in the Wickker Stakes on opening weekend earning 96 Beyer Speed Figure but earned a 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure because he disputed a very fast pace and ran second in that aforementioned race. The Richard Baltas trainee makes his third race into his form cycle and comes into this race with four works including half-mile spin with stablemate Applecross on July 19 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “much the best inside Applecross in 24.1, 47.4 (23.3 LQ). Fires big right back.” Jockey Drayden Van Dyke who rode Neptune’s Storm to two victories and a second in three starts is reunited in the saddle and this bay gelding will be ultra tough to run down if given the trip that TimeformUS pace projector and on paper he figures to get and that is uncontested trip on the front end. Come catch him.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (6) NEPTUNE’S STORM at 3-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: 6-1. Small reverse.
Small Exacta: 6-2. No reverse.
Daily Double part-wheel: #1 Bowie’s Hero, #6 Neptune’s Storm with #8 Adare
Race 9: ADARE (#8, 12-1)
The horse that exits the best last race is the morning line favorite Frair’s Road who crossed the wire sixth in a seven horse field the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby won by Honor A.P. (102 Beyer Speed Figure) and the form of that race was flattered when the second place finisher Authentic returned to win Grade 1 Haskell with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. The issue with Frair’s Road is before that debacle, this son of Quality Road is developing a case of being bridesmaid with consecutive runner-up efforts and one with excuse on May 2 where he ran into traffic issues for more than a half-mile before being extricated out of that trouble at the top of the stretch and rallied to be second behind opportunistic closing winner Hunt the Front. Instead I will look for a horse that projects to improve with more ground and also exits a fast race. ADARE finished third in his career debut behind the very fast Vertical Threat who improved to two for two in dirt sprints when he captured Smiling Tiger Stakes on July 25 with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure (three point improvement). Adare was sent off as the co longest shot on the toteboard at 30-1 because his trainer Neil Drysdale does not do well with debuting maidens in dirt sprints having won at 5% clip (19/1-1-2) in the past five years and watching the video replay of this colt’s seven furlong workout on June 8 on XBTV (Adare - June 8) he is long bodied and long striding son of Medaglia D’Oro that will appreciate route of ground. Despite his confirmation and his trainer’s poor statistics with first time starters, Adare actually outran his 30-1 odds to finish third in this much better than looked performance. He was bounced around at the start by the two Bob Baffert trainees Holden the Lute and Happy Hepo that resulted in him trailing the field down the backstretch racing on the rail early. The dark bay colt continued on the inside into the far turn where he made a nice run to get into contention then swung out four wide at the top of the stretch and delivered a good rally to the wire despite drifting inwards and galloped out with the winner Vertical Threat past the wire. This race served nothing more than a schooling run by trainer Neil Drysdale to stretch him to two turns which he gets to do today and he is half brother to Ocean Knight who won three of nine starts routing on the main track with a career best 97 Beyer Speed Figure. He has come back with three works including a six furlong move in 1:15 ⅕ on July 16 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+ stating “Giant sort looks like a nice sort breezing to the top under wraps then came to the line like a good thing off the rail while under some wraps. There is upside here.” Jockey Edwin Maldonado remains in the irons and at juicy 12-1 on the morning line he is the best value bet on today’s card at Del Mar.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (8) ADARE at 6-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: 8-3, 8-6. No reverse.
Small Exacta part-wheel: 8-10. No reverse.
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