Maxim Rate is a Fresh Face in Sunday Feature Stakes

 Race 3: BEEN STUDYING HER (#1, 2-1) 

Morning line favorite Golden Principal returns from a 224 day layoff in this Allowance N1X dirt sprint for fillies or mares for trainer Bob Baffert who has won at gaudy 36% (16-for-45) with his dirt sprinters returning from 170 to 250 day layoff. The daughter of Constitution comes into this race with a series of blazing works over the Del Mar main track to make the Handicapper’s Report Fit and Ready list after consecutive B+ works over this same racetrack that she broke her maiden in her career debut. Outside of the expected short price, the one factor that could leave her vulnerable is the rival directly outside of her Biddy Duke who has been on the lead and no more than three-quarters off the length at the first pace call in her previous eight starts sprinting on the main track including a game runner up effort last time out at Pleasanton where she battled through very fast fractions to earn eye popping red coded TimeformUS pace figures. If those two hook up this will be the ideal race shape for BEEN STUDYING HER who has been compromised by the lack of early speed in her last two starts sprinting. The California bred daughter of Fast Anna made her second start following a 119 day layoff on June 13 in the Angel Flight Stakes at Santa Anita, got the jump over the favored Gingham to take over the lead past mid-stretch, but was run down by the last run over the favored winner to lose by a length finishing 5-¼ lengths in front of Biddy Duke in the process in a winning effort in defeat earning a 83 Beyer Speed Figure that is the par for this class level. In her last start, Fleet Street Stakes, on July 24 she was badly compromised by the lack of early speed while the favored winner Big Sweep took advantage of the race flow to win by 2-¼ lengths. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “ran inside 2 lengths down, easing back heading into the turn, re-engaging, drafting into the lane, all-out, unable to make inroads.” Her rally looks better than her beaten margin would suggest as she made this rally against the grain of moderate fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (-1,-4) that earn blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. Despite the 81 Beyer Speed Figure, the 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure is a better indicator of her effort considering the slow pace is taken into account with TimeformUS speed figures. She has a recency advantage over her main rival and has returned with two maintenance workouts including a “leg stretching” five furlong move in 1:02 flat according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker with last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner up Donna Veloce on August 7 at Del Mar. She is the second choice on the morning line and I will use her as a single in my recommended Daily Double and cold single Pick 3 wager to the next two races in the sequence. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (1) BEEN STUDYING HER at 2-1 or better.

Daily Double: (1) BEEN STUDYING HER with (1) SABINOS PRIDE 

Pick 3: (1) BEEN STUDYING HER with (1) SABINOS PRIDE with (7) HORSE GREEDY

 

Race 4: SABINOS PRIDE (#1, 6-1)

Although the TimeformUS pace projector suggests this race will unfold at a moderate early pace favoring horses on or near the front end, this race could have a contested pace. Since returning from seventy six day layoff, Rather Nosy has contested for the early lead in her two races and a third place finish over these exact same conditions on July 11. The morning line favorite My Little Runaway has led at the first pace call in four of her previous five starts and those two will contend for the early lead and if that scenario happens it will favor SABINOS PRIDE who can lead or rally from off the pace. The Liam’s Map filly showed early speed on June 14 where she was allowed to set a very fast pace earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures on an uncontested lead and ran her rivals off their feet to win by a diminishing one length with the first three finishers ran first, second, and third at each call in a race flow that favored speed. She defeated a “key” race field in the process as the third place finisher Kleen Karma returned to win at the exact same condition on August 2 earning an improved 78 Beyer Speed Figure (six points) and fifth place finisher Destiny’s Journey switched to the main track and won her next two starts earning Beyer Speed Figures of 71 and 77 respectively. She switched to the main track in her first start off the Jorge Periban claim on July 11 and ran second behind the pace pressing winner Teacher’s Big Dream but a closer inspection of that race reveals she outran her 20-1 odds to finish second in this better than looked performance. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “raced five-wide into the first turn, raced at the back of the pack down the backstretch, unhurried to the quarter-pole, bid behind horses into the lane, angled out, finished powerfully on her wrong lead, ran out of real estate, galloped out on top.” She lost more ground than margin of defeat would indicate and today she goes from post position seven in a seven horse field to the rail in a six horse field where jockey J.C. Diaz Jr. should use his fillies tactical speed to get a ground saving trip stalking contested pace between Rather Nosy and My Little Runaway and get the jump on class dropper Shanghai Truffle. She is 6-1 on the morning line and hopefully we can get all of that price with the attention centered around the three morning line favorites. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (1) SABINOS PRIDE at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #3 Rather Nosy, #5 Shanghai Truffle. No reverse. 

Daily Double: (1) SABINOS PRIDE with (7) HORSE GREEDY

Race 5: HORSE GREEDY (#7, 2-1)

When racing returned on July 24, my horses to watch list went immediately to work on the first race won by the opportunistic closer Heart Full of Stars. The horse that ran the best race in defeat was the beaten favorite and our top choice HORSE GREEDY who ran second and did all the dirty work on the front end to set up for the winner who rallied from sixth and last early. The seven year old Horse Greeley gelding returned from a 134 day layoff on June 6 at this distance versus Allowance N1X/Optional Claiming $40,000 and was “urged from the gate to duel inside then stalked out of the chute,” according to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. He started to retreat into and around the far turn and was not preserved through the stretch, finishing fifth and last, beaten eleven and a quarter lengths in a race that unfolded at a slow early pace earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-5,-1) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures where the first two finishers ran first and second at each call. That race might have served as a tune up for Del Mar as he has two previous wins over this main track and he dropped back to the lowest level of his career, $20,000, on July 24 and won the battle for the early lead only to lose the war. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “dueled between horses, shedding pace rivals in the turn, trying to fight off a fresh foe, faltering mid stretch, fading the final 1/16th.” He dueled through a fast pace earning above average Moss Pace Figures (+7,+4) and the fast pace took its toll on his pace rivals as they tired to finish fourth beaten 11-¾ lengths and fifth beaten 16 lengths as Horse Greedy earned the field’s top last race Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure of 83 and 110 respectively. He was claimed for $20,000 and made one level jump to $25,000 for trainer Peter Miller who has won at 38% (9-for-24) in the past five years at Del Mar with dirt sprinters making their first start off the claim for this barn. He is ideally drawn outside of his main pace rival, Posterize, and should enjoy a perfect pace prompting trip in the clear, shake free of that rival around the turn, and pull clear as the morning line favorite in a race that concludes the Sunday early Pick 5 at Del Mar. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (7) HORSE GREEDY at 9-5 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #7 with #4 Posterize, #1 Oh Marvelous Me. No reverse. 

Race 10: MAXIM RATE (#2, 7-2)

The morning line favorite Siberian Iris is at home over this Del Mar turf course and at today’s 1-⅜ distance with a win and second from three starts including last year’s edition of CTTTOC Stakes that she won by a neck over Over Thinking who returns for this year’s edition. She is the apparent class of this field having competed against Grade 1 and Grade 3 company in her last four starts including a runner up effort in the San Juan Capistrano last time out versus males. However a closer inspection of her record reveals she is not automatic to defend her title in this race. She lacks winning spirit with a record 21/3-7-3 as her late rallies from off the pace often fall short with combined ten seconds or thirds. In addition, her second place finish in the San Juan Capistrano does not look so good when you consider that five horses have run back and it has produced one third place finish and four off the board finishes. I want a new face in the turf distaff division in Southern California and landed on MAXIM RATE who will attempt to stretch her late kick to 1-⅜ for the first time but she has a couple of positive factors that suggest she can get this trip. She entered this race in peak form in her third race off a 203 day layoff as she lost a narrow decision to Colonial Creed June 14 at Santa Anita as she maintained her off the rally through the stretch only to lose the stretch battle with the eventual winner in an encouraging first start as a four year old. The gray daughter of Exchange Rate returned twenty six days later and parlayed a perfect ground saving trip to win by a half length in Allowance N2X that has returned to be a very productive event. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “found a steady rhythm inside at the back, staying inside for the final turn, responding with an acceleration to drive up between foes, storming to the lead in the final 1/16th, holding her momentum through the wire.” She earned the field’s highest last race Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figures of 92 and 113 respectively and the validity of that speed figure has already been validated. Tonahutu returned to duplicate her 92 Beyer Speed Figure and earned an improved 117 TimeformUS Speed Figure (three points) when second beaten a nose in the Grade 2 John Mabee in her next start, third place finisher Pulpit Rider returned to win the Solona Beach Stakes versus California breds in her next start, and fourth place finisher duplicated her 88 Beyer Speed Figure finishing third at this class level beaten a half length in her next start. The distance is a concern as she stretches out an additional three-eighths of a mile but she will conserve her energy and save ground around three turns under Del Mar’s leading turf rider Umberto Rispoli (18 turf wins). The Simon Callaghan trainee has returned with three workouts that the Handicapper Report’s clocker termed as maintenance moves as this “turf filly appears on top of her game.” I expect her to get a ground saving trip chasing expected leader Ms. Peintour and get first jump on last year’s first two finishers to score a minor upset. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (2) MAXIM RATE at 2-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #8 Over Thinking, #4 Quick. Small reverse for each. 

Mandragora Seeker Can Improve on Main Track in Loaded Maiden Race

 Race 2: DISCO BALL (#3, 4-1)

The morning line favorite is the first time starter Seiche from the always dangerous Bob Baffert barn who at this meet is 3/2-1-0 with debuting maidens in a dirt sprint and that lone defeat was Spielberg (August 8, 2020, 4-5). The son of Super Saver enters with the prerequisite fast workouts for his career debut with Handicapper’s Report giving him high praise with grade of B in two of his last three workouts including his on August 10 where he went five furlongs in 59.4 where the Handicapper’s Report clocker stated “a good work for the $230K Super Saver gelding, we are just not sure if he went further than this.” From a pedigree standpoint, there is little evidence that Seiche will be precious. His sire is only 9% with first time starters and the dam Roberta Turner has produced only one starter who split the field in his only start. Instead, I will go with experience in DISCO BALL who has finished in the money in his two starts and each start is better than the last. In his career debut last summer here at Del Mar, he was bet down to the 5-2 second choice in the field and he flashed high early speed to duel inside with the favorite Broon as those two opened up a three-length lead on their nearest rival into the turn, he battled back at the top of the stretch to gain the lead and fought on gamely towards the wire to hold the lead only to be run down by a pair of opportunistic stalkers that rallied from third and fourth after the first quarter of a mile to finish third beaten only a half-length winning the early battle for the lead but lost the war. The son of Orb was not seen for the rest of 2019 and he returned from a 342-day layoff on June 27 at Los Alamitos where he was bet down to the 7-5 post time favorite with a series of B or B+ for his return according to the Handicapper’s Report clocker and he disappointed to run second but he did not have the cleanest of starts and ran into impressive winner in a highly rated maiden event (89 Beyer Speed Figure). He threw his head at the start to be away one length slow at the start, parked four wide down the backstretch, made a three wide run on the far turn under a drive and into the stretch, and finished up under his own energy to be a clear second. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner Vertical Threat came back to win the Smiling Tiger Stakes with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. The bay colt has come back with five workouts with two of them graded as B by the Handicapper’s Report clocker including a best of fifty half mile spin on August 10 in 46.4 that HR clocker commented “wore blinkers (new) for this fast half-mile move, opening 1/4 in 23.3, not asked at all in the stretch, finishing full of run in 46.4.” His regular rider Aaron Gryder remains in the irons and do not be surprised if an announcement is made that he will be wearing blinkers on Saturday as he should be a hint of a price to start the early Pick 4. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (3) DISCO BALL at 5-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #3 with #1 Seiche. No reverse. 

Daily Double: (3) DISCO BALL with (8) TILTED TOWERS. 

Race 3: TILTED TOWERS (#8, 4-1)

The morning line favorite Much More Halo has become known as a bridesmaid that disappoints at short prices. In seven career starts, the son of More than Ready has disappointed at 5-2 (three times) and at 8-5 and with his tendency to finish second this Bob Baffert trainee is a prime candidate to defeat at what should be short odds again. He was my top choice in his return off the long layoff on July 25 but TILTED TOWERS ran well under the circumstances and just needs a clean start to flash his early speed. In his debut on June 1, 2019 on the main track at Santa Anita, where he was a was step slow from the start, rushed up to contest a very fast first quarter of a mile with the favored winner Comical Ghost, continued to duel with that rival around the far turn and tried to hang tough with that rival to the top of the stretch before finally giving way to lose by twelve and a half lengths in a race where the winner earned 88 Beyer Speed Figure. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to repeat her 88 Beyer Speed Figure winning Allowance N1X, third-place finisher Oakland Mills returned to break his maiden with a 82 Beyer Speed Figure (eight point improvement) and the fourth-place finisher earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure (five point improvement) in his next start. The Atreidas gelding returned from a 420 day layoff on July 25 making his first start on turf and ran a respectable race to finish fifth splitting his eleven horse field and he could have finished closer if he did not have a tough start. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he was “bumped by the runner-up at the start in turn bumping with EL CHAPIN, raced off the pace, lagged off the pace, three-wide into the drive, made up a bit of ground late,” in a race dominated by the uncontested gate to wire winner Highly Distorted. He should move forward in his second race following the long layoff and has come back with two workouts including a half-mile spin in 49 seconds on August 10 that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B- stating a “decent work.” Abel Cedillo rides for the resurgent Phil D’Amato barn. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (8) TILTED TOWERS at 5-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #3 Cem Sultan, #6 Graziano. Small reverse for each. 

Race 5: EL JOY (#5, 8-1)

The morning line favorite Caisson is favored off fourth place finish in his career debut at today’s distance twenty-one days ago. The son of War Front by four time turf and Grade 1 EP Taylor winner Curvy ran respectable in his career debut. According to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “settled off the pace, three-wide around the far turn, entered the lane four-deep, drifted out and forced the winner to alter course past mid stretch, even the final 1/16.” From a visual and time standpoint this was not the most impressive maiden event. The first seven horses were seperated by only four lengths and the visual aspect was matched by the 48 Beyer Speed Figure the race earned. Instead my creative juices searched through the pedigrees of each of the entrants and landed on EL JOY who is stretching out and trying the turf for the first time, something he pedigree suggests he will adore. He made his debut on August 1 where he was sent off as the second longest shot in the field of nine going off at 40-1 and he ran to his odds finishing seventh where the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “broke a step slow, rushing up to sit outside 4 lengths down, starting to struggle midturn, quickly falling apart by the drive.” However, that was sprinting on the main track and this Eoin Harty trainee is bred to adore the stretch out to two turns on turf. He is by 14% turf stallion Kitten’s Joy and is by the dam BlueGrass Music who won two of eighteen starts routing on the turf and El Joy is a full brother to Henley’s Joy who won four of seventeen starts routing on the turf including Grade 1 Belmont Derby. Trainer Eoin Harty’s starters have yet to finish in the money based on the limited amount of starts, four, but he has a history of winning with second time starters trying grass and going a route of ground for the first time. In the past five years, he has won at respectable 18% (3-for-17) with that move and two of those starters did not go off favored, Sayin Grace (August 24, 2018, $10.40-1) and Delaphene (July 16, 2017, $5.10-1). In a race maiden race where there are no true standouts, EL JOY is a good alternative given the progeny of Kitten’s Joy on the turf and trainer Eoin Harty popping up with a price with his second time starters trying grass and a route for the first time. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (5) EL JOY at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #1 Eagle in the Sky, #6 Raisebeforetheflop. Reverse for a smaller amount. 

Race 7: ZIPPER MISCHIEF (#8, 5-1)

I have two strong stands in this race. The first stand is I am going to throw out the morning line favorite Hit It Seam who defeated open company for horses that started for $50,000 or less or have not won two races on June 13 at Santa Anita. The issue with that earned the highest last race 85 Beyer and 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the trip he encountered. He was loose on a very easy lead and won going away in a race that saw the first two finishers run first and second at each call. There are three others in this field that have triple digit plus TimeformUS early pace ratings and Hit It Seam will not have an easy trip on the front end. The second stand is against horses that ran on the July 24 race here at Del Mar. That race saw many horses behind the winner Preaching Trainer encounter trouble in a race that saw the first nine finishers separated by only three-lengths at the wire and the visual impression was matched with the subpar 74 Beyer Speed Figure the race earned. With the amount of early speed signed on the race flow will work in the favor of ZIPPER MISCHIEF who is making his second start as a gelding and off 189 day layoff. The son of Into Mischief has hit the board in four of his last five starts sprinting on the turf including all three starts on this Del Mar turf course. The Blake Heap trainee returned from the long layoff on June 20 and caught a field with little positional change among the first three finishers as they ran first, third, and second around the race track and broke from the disadvantage post position one. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “raced midfield down the backstretch, bid along the rail past the quarter-pole, angled out at the head of the lane, ran in place to the wire.” With that race under his belt, he should move forward in his second start off the long layoff and has returned with six workouts including a five furlong move in 1:01.3 on August 8 that the Handicapper’s Report clocker gave it a B- stating “looked better this week, splits of 12.2, 24.3, 36.4, lightly niggled in 101.2, not a bad work.” The son of multiple stakes winner Unzip Me, retains the services of Victor Espinoza and in a race where I have knocks against this bay gelding is eligible to improve and could spice up the multi-race wagers that start the late Pick 5. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (8) ZIPPER MISCHIEF at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #4 Dreamer’s Reality, #6 Scouted, #9 Johnny Podres. Small reverse. 

Race 8: MANDRAGORA SEEKER (#9, 10-1)

Just as with the second race, this race will feature the debut of Illumination who made the Handicapper’s Report Fit and Ready list as a horse ready to win. She is by 13% two-year old first time starter stallion Medaglia D’Oro out of the Street Sense mare Light the City who won three of eleven starts with two of those wins coming as a two-year old. She is trained by Bob Baffert who excels with debuting maidens in dirt sprints this meet and brings a stellar series of workouts for her career debut with her B or B+ moves. The expected price below 2-1 is a negative on a filly making her career debut. I am inclined to look for an entrant with experience that worked well before and after their only start and landed on MANDRAGORA SEEKER. Although her sire, Outwork, has produced only 7% (2-for-27) winners this is his first crop but this bay filly is by outstanding Winchell owned and bred Classic Olympio who won six of nineteen starts and she was a stakes winner sprinting on the main track earning a career best 98 Beyer Speed Figure as a two-year old. She has produced seven winners from ten starters including multiple dirt sprint winner Classify, Simplify, Seeker, and Just the Tap and two of those winners were two-year old winners. In addition, she had worked very well for her debut where Handicapper’s Report clocker gave her a B for her 33.4 blowout from the gate on July 24 where the clocker stated “three lengths clear in 34.1 when up well out in the middle of the racetrack, a good display of speed by the unraced $47K Outwork two year-old filly, who has plenty of gas if nothing else.” With the pedigree, series of quick workouts, and trainer Luis Mendez history of debuting maidens she was sent off as the co favorite at 3-1 and disappointed sprinting on the turf. According to the Handicapper’s Report trip note, “she raced midpack inside, drifted out while coming off the rail around the far turn, outrun into the drive, no rally.” This race served nothing more than an educational run as Madragora Seeker as she makes her second career start for trainer Luis Mendez who wins at above average 33% (4-for-12) in the past five years with second start maidens in dirt sprints. She returned five days ago with a 34.3 move that was the fastest of twenty-eight at the distance the Handicapper’s Report gave her a B or this work stating “ran right on by (workmate She Be Salty) in the stretch, lightly tapped once past mid stretch, up at the wire in 34.2, a sharp display of speed by the once raced Outwork filly, who failed on the turf, but can improve on the main track.” With all her sharp breezes on the main track, pedigree tilted towards the main track, and a trainer that improves their starters in the second career race makes MANDRAGORA SEEKER the upset candidate. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (9) MANDRAGORA SEEKER at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #9 with #3 Isn’t Show Love, #5 Forest Caraway, #4 Illumination. Small reverse. 

Race 10: LUCK’S ROYAL FLUSH (#9, 20-1)

The two morning line favorites look competitive in this field but in my opinion are throw outs. It’s Tiz Time drops from the tougher and fastest race in this field, Allowance N1X sprint that saw the winner Knee Deep Ins Now earn a 90 Beyer Speed Figure. The issue I have with this Tiznow horse is his soundness as he is a seven year old with only thirteen starts as he has been bothered by various issues indicated by the number of layoff lines in his last four starts. He returned from a 378 day layoff on November 24, 2019 and won at this class level sprinting here at Del Mar then returned from a seventy days later and ran second in Allowance N1X raced once more before returning off a ninety eight day layoff last time out and finished fourth and now returns off another seventy day layoff. The second choice Zimba Warrior was my top pick on July 25 when he dropped into a restricted claiming event for three-year old and won but he was the recipient of a pace meltdown as the three horses battled for the lead through fast fractions according to the Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile (+4,+4) and he rallied past the best of the speed horses, Drippin Sauce, to win by a length and a half. Based on a review of the running lines in this field and according to TimeformUS pace projector, this race came up light on one dimensional front running speed and that will compromise Zimba Warrior and only help our longshot top choice LUCK’S ROYAL FLUSH. This Lucky Pulpit colt has some back class having won a stakes as a two-year old in his fourth career start and was second in the Graduation Stakes here at Del Mar. After being the best of a speed duel and was caught by a perfect trip winner in his final start as a two-year old he was not seen as a three-year old and returned from 569 day layoff on June 20 and he never had a smooth trip. The Handicapper’s Report trip notes commented “rank early, traveled uncomfortably between runners into the far turn, went backwards into the lane, had nothing to offer.” I will draw a line through this race because he never appeared comfortable on the turf and the long layoff. He dropped in class and returned to the main track on July 26 facing open $32,000 claiming company and finished tenth and last beaten eight and a half lengths behind 56-1 midpack stalking winner Sweet River Baines but that poor effort was the result of chasing a fast early pace. He was hustled away from the gate and sat off the leader Posterize and post time favorite I’m Busy for the first half mile through fast fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (+4,+4). He stayed in contention to the quarter pole before dropping out of it into the stretch and was wrapped up to the wire. He is now protected in this race dropping in class to facing horses that have started for $50,000 or less and have not won three races. The leader in TimeformUS early pace rating by double digits to the next fastest early pace rating in the field thus he will find himself on the lead according to the pace projector. Hustling rider Edwin Maldonado remains in the irons and expect one strategy, go to the front and try to chase him to the wire in his third race off the layoff at juicy price. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (9) LUCK’S ROYAL FLUSH to WIN at 12-1 or higher. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #9 with #6 Pyron, #8 Lil Sydney. Small reverse. 

Pick 3 Race 2: 

Race 2: (3) DISCO BALL

Race 3: (3) Cem Sultan, (6) Grazino, (8) TILTED TOWERS

Race 4: (1) Ronamo, (4) Mongolian Legend

Ticket 1: 3 with 3,6,8 with 1,4 = 1 x 3 x 2 x $2 = $12 

Ticket 2: 3 with 8 with 1,4       = 1 x 1 x 2 x $4 = $8 

Total Wager: $20

 

Golden Doughnut Looks for Better Timed Ride in Finale

 Race 4: MONGOLIAN WINDOW (#4, 5-1)

The morning line favorite Perfect Ice Storm will get attention as the favorite with his percentage trainer-jockey combination of Peter Eurton and Umberto Rispoli who have connected at 56% rate (5-for-9) in the past year at Del Mar but based on handicapping the horse this daughter of He Be Fire and Ice is vulnerable. From five starts on a fast main track, he is winless in five starts on that surface with his lone in the money effort a third beaten fourteen and a half lengths in his previous start at Los Alamitos. This stalker from midpack also finds a field not loaded with plethora of early speed as TimeformUS pace projector sees this one-mile event favoring horses on or near the early lead and that scenario will favor MONGOLIAN WINDOW who defeated Perfect Ice Storm in their only encounter on July 2 where she encountered conditions similar to today’s event. In that aforementioned event, granddaughter of Distorted Humor enjoyed an ideal trip chasing the uncontested leader Tiz Toffee through slow early fractions for the first half mile according to Moss Pace Figures (-5,-6). She inherited the lead midway on the far turn and was challenged by the closer Meso at the top of the stretch and she simply refused to let that rival by earning a competitive 70 Beyer and 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The Enebish Ganbat trainee was reeled back in twenty-five days and stepped up to Allowance N1X for optional claiming price of $40,000 and found the class level and the fast early pace too tiring to finish fourth beaten sixteen and half lengths. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “contested the pace between runners into the first turn, settled just off the pacesetter onto the backstretch, traveled between runners to the far turn, unresponsive to urging in the far turn, grinded home.” The early pace for the first half mile was fast earning above par Moss Pace Figures (+21,+6) explaining the fourth place finish. She has come back with a maintenance three furlong move on August 9 that Handicapper’s Report clocker described as a “leg stretcher.” In a race with only one other confirmed pace rival, Destiny’s Journey, Mongolian Window should go straight for the early lead under Ruben Fuentas and prove a tough rival to run down on the drop in class and easier pace scenario to work with. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (4) MONGOLIAN WINDOW at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta: 4 with #5 Operatic. Small reverse for each. 

Race 8: MANRESA (#7, 8-1)

The morning line First Empress defeated five of her rivals when second on July 26 behind the gate to wire winner Destiny’s Journey. The daughter of Cairo Prince enjoyed ideal conditions in that race as she was forwardly placed close to moderate early pace according to Moss Pace Figures for the first six furlongs (-2,0) and raced the majority off the rail on a main track that had a strong bad rail bias. She will not find the same trip in this event as Billy K, Samandah and Miss Bennet will be forwardly placed on or near the front end and if the pace takes it toll it could unfold for the long shot MANRESA who finished six and quarter lengths behind First Empress last time out but did not have the best trips as she was hampered by the bad rail bias. She broke her maiden on June 13 with perfect trip chasing the loose leader La Sabalera early, took over the lead midway on the far turn to open up three length lead at midstretch, and won by six and a half lengths defeating a subpar field as the four horses behind her came back to finish off the board in their next start. The daughter of Coil faced restricted claiming company for the first time on July 26 and ran a sneaky good race that the angled in second, best of rest comment in your past performances would indicate. She “raced at the tail of the field, began to wind up approaching the half-mile pole, launched three-wide into the far turn, dove to the rail approaching the quarter-pole, rallied into third, labored on the tiring rail inside of the eighth-pole.” Not only did she raced on the turn and through the stretch on a bad rail she attempted to make her rally from off the pace but also a speed bias. She will make her first start off the claim for Gary Stute who connects at 21% (4-for-19) in the past five years with that move on the main track. Jockey Eswan Flores takes over in the irons for the first time and should find an honest pace for her late kick. On a week where Mel Stute passed away at the age of 93, it would be fitting for his son Gary to win his first start after his father’s passing at what should be a juicy price given the margin of defeat in his last start and low speed figures. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (7) MANRESA at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exactas: #7 with #3 Midnight Garden, #8 Awesome Amanda. Small reverse for each. 

Daily Double part-wheel: (7) MANRESA with (8) GOLDEN DOUGHNUT

Race 9: GOLDEN DOUGHNUT (#8, 6-1)

The morning line favorite Whopping Jay was second beaten only half length in the Cal Dreaming Stakes versus California bred company nineteen days ago. The son of Square Eddie encountered an ideal pace scenario to flatter his late running style as Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “raced three-wide at the back of the pack, traveled keenly onto the backstretch, settled down approaching the half-mile pole, responded well to urging in the far turn, rallied six-wide into the lane, laid in, charged down the center of the track, ran at the leader late, rebuffed on his wrong lead.” The fast pace noted by TimeformUS red coded pace figure, saw the first four finishers rally from fourth, eighth, seventh, and tenth in a complete pace collapsed. Instead I am going to select a horse I made a top choice on July 12 that was compromised by an ill timed ride in that race. GOLDEN DOUGHNUT will make his third start following the 994-day layoff and each race off the layoff is better than the one before. He returned from almost a three-year layoff on June 20 where he was dismissed as the longest shot on the tote board at 53-1 and he outran those odds to finish third. He traveled in a comfortable spot on the rail in mid-field behind a very fast early (red coded pace figures) pressed by the winner Shadow Spinx, moved into contention on the far turn, tipped out to have dead aim at the winner at the top of the stretch, stayed on through the stretch while no match for the winner, and lost second Boogalute who rallied from sixth. I thought he could move forward on July 12 in his second start off the long layoff where he was 15-1 on the morning line and was bet down to 9-2 and received a poor ride from Humberto Figueroa where if he waited longer he would have won. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “bumped by JETOVATOR at the start, tracked inside, moved prematurely along the rail leaving the backstretch to vie for command then took over into the far turn, inched away leaving that bend and into the lane, collared deep stretch, hung tough, outfinished late. If Figueroa just waited, he likely wins.” The pace he chased and made that premature move was very fast earning red coded TimeformUS pace figures in a race that collapsed for the off the pace runners with the first three finishers rallied from eleventh, seventh, and ninth after the first half mile as he earned a TimeformUS Speed Figure higher than the winner Ostini because he was close to that fast pace. This stalker will just need a better timed ride from jockey Mike Smith as he looks primed for a winning performance in his third race off the layoff and I expect him to make amends as he is in good form. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (8) GOLDEN DOUGHNUT at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exactas: #8 with #4 Sea of Liberty, #7 Jetovator. Small reverse for each. 

Kanderel Looks to Run Down the Favorite in the La Jolla

 Race 6: KALINE (#2, 10-1) 

This is an excellent betting race because I am looking to defeat the two morning line favorites. Tropical Terror and Hammering Lemon are a combined 11/0-6-1 on the turf with the former having lost as the post time favorite three times. Although he ran second in his last start in these exact same conditions, Hammering Lemon should not have lost on July 10 as he enjoyed a comfortable trip on the front end through slow fractions and was worn down by the pace presser Cali Caliente. I respect Luvluv but I believe he will be bet down based on his trainer John Sadler and jockey Umberto Rispoli. Instead I want to back a new face trying turf for the first time and be bred for it and I landed on KALINE. He has run twice over the Tapeta at Golden Gate and each race was an improvement over the previous start. The son of Grazen made his career debut on May 24 where he lacked the early speed to keep up with the leaders racing four wide in midpack down the backstretch and continued that wide through the far turn and into the stretch where he turned in a respectable rally through the stretch to finish fourth against the grain race shape that favored horses on or near the lead with the first two finishers running first and second after the first quarter of a mile as Kaline was the only horse in that field to make up any ground through the stretch. The former Steve Specht trainee stretched out to two turns for the first time and ran into a gate to wire runaway winner Lookin for Revenge who flattered that event by returning to win on July 3 with a 79 Beyer Speed Figure (eight point improvement). In that race, he did the dirty work chasing or pressing the favored winner through fast fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (+6,+4) and was fast enough to earn a red coded TimeformUS pace figure. Kaline was outrun by the winner into the stretch and lost second on the wire. He is now transferred to the barn of Quinn Howley who conditions Indian Peak in the Grade 3 La Jolla and that trainee has a 4/2-2-0 record on the turf. Kaline is bred to adore the surface as her dam Way Up won four of thirteen starts on the turf including two of those routing on the turf. She has produced ten winners from fourteen foals including turf route winners, Wavy Lass (4-for-8), Unusual Way (1-for-4), Laditudefortytwo (1-for-5), Cowboy (2-for-5), and Cali Way (2-for-5). She got acclimated with her surroundings with five furlong move in 1:02.4 on July 30 that Handicapper’s Report clocker stated “not asked in this five furlong maintenance spin, going off in 37.4, moving easily in 102.2, just a leg stretcher for the Golden Gate invader, who should be seen with Cal-bred maidens.” Giovanni Franco takes over in the irons and he has landed a live mount with turf route oriented pedigree for a capable trainer and finds a weak field to graduate with his diploma drawn ideally in post position two. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (2) KALINE at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #1 Luvluv, #3 Table for Ten. Small reverse for each. 

Race 8: GINOBLI (#5, 8-1)

This is a competitive sprint on the turf where the morning line favorite Tribalist is a now nine-year old returning off 221 day layoff. The Tribal Rule gelding is at home returning off extended breaks as this Blake Heap trainee has won off 375 days, 359 days, and 384 day layoffs in the past. However, it has been almost three years since Tribalist has visited the winner circle and even through the Handicapper’s Report clocker has raved about his workouts coming up to this event with consecutive B+ works last his two works, if his connections wanted to protect this horse off the long layoff he could have been eligible for the rule where a horse laid off and has not started for a minimum of 180 days since its last race is not eligible to be claimed but he is being risked for $40,000. Can this nine-year old win? The answer is yes but do I want back him at a short price considering the multiple layoff lines and the fact his connections opted not to protect him off the long layoff. The horses that exit the very fast turf sprint won by Speedy Justice I respect and will use those three underneath my top choice who returns to the turf sprinting. GINOBLI was an impressive gate to wire winner in his second career start and then was reeled back too soon (sixteen days) in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity that was marred by an incident with Storm the Court and Eight Rings soon after the start. He was fourth in his only start on the turf and made his three-year old debut off 126-day layoff in the Grade 2 San Vicente where he gave the undefeated Nadal all he could handle in his first start versus winners. The son of Munnings broke running to flash early speed in a contested speed duel parked four wide down the backstretch and sat just off the favored winner Nadal through the turn and in the stretch where Ginobli had the lead at mid-stretch and was worn down by Nadal as this was a fast pace he contested according to Moss Pace Figures (+11,+8) and earned a red coded TimeformUS pace figure. His two starts at Oaklawn Park were filled with trouble in each start. In his fifth place finish as the 4-5 favoritie, Ginobli missed the start by length and half, rushed up between horses to chase the dueling leaders who contested a very fast first quarter (+11), shuffled back on the turn, and tried his best to re-rally through the lane to split the ten horse field finishing in front of two next out winners. He stretched out to two turns in his last start and broke about a length slow at the start, rushed up between rivals into the first turn only to run up on horses' heels and was parked four wide throughout and remained in the hunt until midway on the far turn and gave way to finish seventh, beaten fifteen lengths. He has returned with four workouts as a new gelding and has impressed Handicapper’s Report clocker with consecutive B works including a visually impressive spin on August 2 where he worked in company with Fivestar Lynch and “took a short advantage in the stretch, then waited on his workmate, definitely going best late in 47.3, never asked, a good work for the three-year-old, who has been gelded since his last start and looked good here.” It appears the time away has helped this three-year old and sprinting is what he does best. With those two ugly running lines disguised in his past performances, I expect Ginobli to be overlooked. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) GINOBLI at 9-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #3 Distant Vista, #4 Torosay, #6 Capture the Sea. Small reverse for each. 

Race 10: KANDEREL (#5, 10-1)

I respect the morning line favorite Smooth Like Strait as the field’s probable pacesetter but he can be challenged for the early lead by Indian Peak who displayed an premature move in his last start, Snow Chief, to challenge for the lead and did display a sharp middle move in a team work on July 30 here at Del Mar according to Handicapper’s Report clocker. The horse I am trying to beat in this race is second choice Storm the Court. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner is winless in four starts this year and now attempts to get back to form with the switch to the turf. He has recorded three turf workouts the past four weeks with the Handicapper’s Report clocker giving them B- with the comment of “appeared to handle the surface.” The main issue with Storm the Court is his pedigree to handle the surface switch. His sire, Court Vision, has produced only 9% (4-for-43) with turf routers the past five years and the information does not get better when you research the dam side. The dam, My Tejana Storm, won three of twelve starts all sprinting on the main track with a career best 92 Beyer Speed Figure and she has produced three winners from four starters. She has had only one starter try the turf, Belleoftheprairie, who won four of twenty-nine starts and won two of six starts on the turf but that was sprinting on the surface. She was winless in four starts routing on turf. Plus with his tactical speed he along with Indian Peak will look to chase or press Smooth Like Strait early and if the pace heats up during the middle part of this mile and a sixteenth event then it will set up very well for the improving KANDEREL. The son of Candy Ride enters this race in peak form having won and finished second in his last two starts and has displayed a wicked turn of late speed to suggest he can run down his rivals in the stretch. The Richard Mandella trainee managed to defeat four others in a key race turf sprint on May 15 that was too short for this colt. He stretched out to one-mile in the Alcatraz Stakes on June 13 where he stalked the uncontested leader Better Trip Nick in fourth early, moved up three wide on the far turn, angled three wide at the top of the stretch, drove to the front past mid-stretch, and safely held off the late bid of A Journey to Freedom defeating two next out winners in the process. Last time out he was dismissed at 17-1 in the Oceanside Stakes where he was compromised by rallying very wide while the favored winner, Hit the Road, enjoyed a perfect ground saving stalk and pounce trip. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “ran outside in the back half of the field, coiling up for run in the turn, looping 7-wide for the drive, unleashing a strong kick to run by the rest for 2nd.” Kanderel displayed an excellent turn of late speed running his third quarter in the co-fastest 24.15 seconds and ran his last quarter in the field’s best 23 seconds flat. He has returned with three workouts to indicate he has held his form and Juan Hernandez returns in the saddle. The dark bay or brown colt gets four pounds from the favorite and if he can manage to not lose alot of ground on the far turn and he has clear sailing at the top of the stretch then Kanderel can display that powerful late kick to run down Smooth Like Strait to score the upset. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) KANDEREL at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: 5-6. Reverse for half the amount. 

 

 

Bodhicitta Looks to Mow Them Down in the John Mabee

 Race 5: BEGUILDED (#1, 15-1)

This race that ends the early Pick 5 interests me the most on the entire card because of the possibility of throwing out the morning line favorite MEREDITH. She is by terrific first time turf stallion American Pharoah who connects at 17% with his progeny trying the grass for the first time but there is nothing on the female side of her pedigree and trainer’s record with surface switch from dirt to turf and sprint to route makes her bet against. Her dam Flattermewithroses won once in sixteen starts and tried routing on the turf five times without a win. Secondly, trainer Bob Baffert excels with debuting maidens sprinting on the main track and with three-year old pointing for the classic races but in the past five years he is 23/0-5-2 with his trainees going from dirt to turf and stretching out from a sprint to route. She figures to control the pace from start exiting a fast pace sprint but will find company for the lead with My Little Runaway and Summer Love forwardly placed. Instead, I am going to back a horse making her second race off the layoff exiting a tough trip seventh-place finish in her return. BEGUILDED is half sister to Phil D’Amato trained Fault who won six of sixteenth starts including Grade 2 Buena Vista at one-mile on the turf and Grade 1 Santa Margarita at mile and an eighth on the main track. She did not have a real visible excuse when she finished eighth in the China Doll Stakes as she raced between rivals behind a two horse duel and was always in good striking position but failed to show a late kick in a race where the first ten finishers were separated by only five lengths. The daughter of Orb returned from a 127-day layoff on July 12 where she was dismissed at 21-1 and was working like a filly that was going to need that first race off the layoff as she came into that event with three consecutive C+ works per the Handicapper’s Report clocker and she ran accordingly beaten five lengths but a closer inspection of that race reveals she had no chance with the trip she endured. Forced to break from post position ten in a ten horse field, she was parked four to five paths wide leaving the chute and ran around the first turn three wide and into the backstretch behind a slow early pace. Next to the wide journey, she took a funny step midway on the backstretch and into the far turn tried to commence a three to four wide run at the top of the stretch and lost her punch with her stablemate Carpe Vinum emerging victorious. She now makes her second race off the extended layoff and goes from the extreme outside to the rail to save ground under hot riding Juan Hernandez. The bay filly has returned to training much better with two works capped off by a 1:01.1 move on the turf that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B working with stable mate Zee Drop where “neither were asked.” I expect to see half of her morning line and that is acceptable and I expect her to move forward with a ground saving trip. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (1) BEGUILDED at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #1 with #6 Summer Love and #8 Moonhill Milly. Small reverse for each. 

Race 7: FIVESTAR LYNCH (#5, 10-1)

The TimeformUS pace projector and review of the running lines of the nine entrants in this field reveal a lack of early speed signed on in this 1-⅜ miles turf event. The pace projector indicates there is no early speed and majority in this field are assigned a running style of midpack or closers and this race can unfold at tepid pace for our top choice FIVESTAR LYNCH. The Richard Baltas trainee broke his maiden in his eighth career start for $62,500 claiming price on February 8 with the aid of a perfect trip. He saved ground around the first turn and the far turn behind the leader Trojan Magic who set a fast pace to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures. He tipped off the rail into the stretch and rallied to wear down the longtime leader Trojan Magic to win by a half-length. The Slade Power gelding returned from a 106-day layoff on May 24 in a race that appeared he needed the race off more than a three month layoff. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “stalked inside, angled a bit off the rail in the stretch, between horses within range deep stretch, not good enough,” in a race that saw the winner Red King returned to win Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure and eighth place finisher Posterize returned to win $32,000 claiming dirt sprint with a 85 Beyer Speed Figure. He made his second start off the layoff on the final race of the Santa Anita spring-summer meet on June 21 and ran eighth beaten seven and a half-lengths in a race that one can dismiss because the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes stated “ran outside at the back, winding up in the turn, circling very wide, showing a mild late kick to pass a few.” He suffered very bad riding tactics as this gelding shown to sit close to the early pace and succeed and also he had a very wide journey covering 54ft more than the first through third place finishers and 38ft more than the fourth place finisher Succeedandsurpass in a race where the runner-up Lincoln City returned to win at the same class level with a 87 Beyer Speed Figure. He has returned with five workouts including his last drill where he worked in company heads up with the stakes placed sprinter Ginobli on August 2 in 48 seconds flat (Fivestar Lynch - August 2) that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave B-. Abel Cedillo takes over in the irons and with aggressive ride from the start he dictates terms on the front end without losing ground on both turns and can spring the upset to start the Saturday late Pick 5 at Del Mar.

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (5) FIVESTAR LYNCH at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #5 with #8 Tintoretto and #7 Cupid’s Claw. Small reverse for each.   

Race 9: BODHICITTA (#2, 6-1)

The scratch of Jodie Olimpica changed the pace scenario of this race as that filly was expected to be the pacesetter and now look for Summering from the rail post position to go straight for the early lead along with Harmless tracking or pressing the leader in second early. A mare that can be overlooked is BODHICITTA who enters this race in peak form with two wins and a second in three starts this year. Her main asset is her late kick and she displayed that in her previous win on March 8 at Santa Anita. The Showcasing filly found the rail around the first turn, angled off the rail in two path down the backstretch behind a moderate early pace, angled four wide at the top of the stretch, and delivered a big late kick to blow by the rail rally of Dogtag to win by length and a half. She completed her final quarter of a mile in 22.86 seconds and her win was flattered when Dogtag returned to win Allowance N2X and Possibly Perfect Stakes in her next two starts with 88 and 89 Beyer Speed Figures respectively. Her connections became ambitious when she returned in the Grade 1 Gamely on May 25 at Santa Anita trying to stretch her late kick to 1-⅛ miles for the first time and she ran well behind the perfect trip stalking winner Keeper of the Stars to lose by length and a quarter. In that race, she found herself towards the rear of the field behind a fast pace set by uncontested leader Giza Goddess early. She moved up one off the rail in the two path on the far turn, angled five wide at the top of the stretch, and delivered a final three-eighths in 34.56 seconds to catch second over Mucho Unusual. The chestnut filly returns from a seventy-five day layoff with seven workouts including five furlong moves with stablemate and recent Wickker Stakes winner Bob and Jackie on July 30 in 1:02.20 (Bodhicitta - July 30) where the Handicapper’s Report clocker gave it a B stating “appearing best, good work for her,” and he also gave her two previous works on this turf course a B as well. Regular rider Flavien Prat who is second in the jockey standings with seven turf wins remains in the irons and drawn well in post position two I expect her to save ground and unleash her devastating late kick to spring the minor upset. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (2) BODHICITTA at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #2 with #3 Tonahutu, #7 Beau Recall. Small reverse for each. 

Daily Double: (2) BODHICITTA with (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ  

Race 10: SUPERMAN SHAQ (#4, 7-2)

The morning line favorite that will get the majority of attention will be the $1 million Keeneland September 2019 purchase Spielberg who was the highest priced yearling from the sixty-three yearlings by his sire Union Rags. He is trained by trainer Bob Baffert who has started two debuting maidens sprinting on the main track this meet and both return winners as the favorite, Happier (July 31, 2020, $1.20-1) with 89 Beyer Speed Figure and Freedom Fighter (August 1, 2020, $0.50-1) with a 76 Beyer Speed Figure. He enters this race with the prequisite fast works with two of his four workouts over the Del Mar main track best of the morning. Two issues with this pricey yearling is the pedigree is not to win early and he has shown the lack of quick gate speed. By 11% first time out sire by the dam Miss Sequel who won three of seventeen starts and won all three starts routing on the main track and her only foal High Road won his two starts routing on an off track. Moreover, I am concerned with his ability to break fast from the gate as he was slow into stride in his half-mile spin on 46.20 on July 20 (Spielberg - July 20). Instead I am more interested and strongly feel that SUPERMAN SHAQ has the combination of win early pedigree, high price purchase, and excellent workouts to suggest this Peter Miller trainee is ready to win in his career debut. He cost $550,000 at the Ocala Spring Sale which was the highest priced two-year old from the fourteen two-year olds by Shackleford at the sale. The female family is the reason that he fetched such a high price as the dam Drumette has produced five winners from five starters with two of those winners two-year old winners. Her standout foal is Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and Breeders Cup Distaff winner Monomoy Girl who has won eleven of thirteen starts including three wins from four starts as a two-year old and Mr. Monomoy who won two of five starts including one of three starts as a two-year old. Superman Shaq enters this race with seven workouts including a visually impressive five furlong move in 1:01.60 on July 27 (Superman Shaq - July 27) where he broke fast to outbreak his workmate, waited for his mate to catch up into the turn, re-broke again to work to the five furlong pole and galloping out past it while his workmate ended the work and three-quarter pole in a work that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B- stating he “has ability, outworked an older horse and is worth following.” Trainer Peter Miller is off to fast start this meet as the leading trainer and has connected at a 50% clip (4/2-0-1) with his two-year olds making their debut in maiden special weight dirt sprints as both winners were not the favorite, What’s Up Surfer (July 12, 2020, $2.90-1) and Good with People (July 12, 2020, $3.00-1). The gate speed he shown in his July 27 work and his subsequent August 2 work that Handicapper’s Report clocker gave him a B will give him an advantage over the morning line favorite Spielberg and with the percoious win early breeding and his trainer’s fast start this meet, I expect Superman Shaq to break running and make every pole a winning one at a hint of a price in the first leg of the late Daily Double. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #3 Noble Reflection, #8 Dr. Schivel. Small reverse for each. 

Daily Double: (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ with (6) SWEET DEVIL. 

Race 11: SWEET DEVIL (#6, 5-1)

The new face in the Del Mar finale Ya Beauty I respect as she received positive Timeform Foreign comments on her runner-up effort on June 24 versus twelve horse field where she was three and three-quarter lengths in front of the rest of the field as she is “open to further improvement and is well up to winning a similar event.” The filly I will be taking a stand against is the second choice on the morning line Nurse Goodbody who has disappointed at odds of 2-1 and 8-5 in her last two starts. When she ran second beaten a length on May 24 she was part of a bunched field where the first seven horses were separated by four and a quarter lengths and last time out she was the beaten favorite where she was “struggling four-wide under a drive in the far turn, completely empty in the stretch,” according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. She is a bet against and the top preference goes back to my top selection on July 11. SWEET DEVIL has managed to finish in the money only once in three starts on the turf but each of those starts was better than it appears on paper. In her career debut, she was dismissed at 37-1 in her career debut on January 11 where she ran a respectable race to defeat more than half the field to wire despite racing greenly through the stretch rallying in traffic to lose by only four-lengths and galloped out very well after the wire to indicate additional ground should pose no problem. She stretched out to 1-⅛ miles in her next start and she ran well to finish third beaten only a half-length in a race where she lost ground around both turns and was close to early pace that saw the two leaders weaken to finish fifth and seventh. She was a little head strong early crossing the wire for the first time and was parked three wide on the first turn and into the backstretch chasing the two leaders Nu Pi Lambda and Undisturbed. She made a three wide move on the far turn to take over the lead into the stretch and refused to quit easily staying on gamely through deep stretch as the two rivals that outfinished Sweet Devil rallied from seventh and sixth after the first half-mile. After a dirt debacle on May 17 versus a key race field, she returned to turf on July 11 and lost more ground than the one-length margin of defeat would indicate. The daughter of Daredevil broke from post position eleven in an eleven horse field and was parked three wide on the first turn and stayed that wide down the backstretch, moved up three wide on the far turn and into the stretch and “battled tenaciously down the center of the track, beaten a neck for second,” according to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes. The Mike McCarthy trainee is drawn better this afternoon and I expect to get a ground saving trip under Juan Hernandez who has four turf wins this meet.  She has been the victim of some tough trips in her recent turf starts but if Sweet Devil gets a clean ground saving trip she can break through with her diploma in her fifth career start as my BEST BET on the card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (6) SWEET DEVIL at 7-2 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #11 Ya Beauty. Small reverse for each.

Small Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #5 Noble Hearted. No reverse. 

Del Mar Pick 3 Race 9

Race 9: (2) BODHICITTA, (3) Tonahutu, (7) Beau Recall

Race 10: (3) Noble Reflection, (4) SUPERMAN SHAQ, (8) Dr. Schivel 

Race 11: (6) SWEET DEVIL, (11) Ya Beauty

Ticket 1: 2 with 3,4,8 with 6,11  = 1 x 3 x 2 x $2 = $12 

Ticket 2: 2,3,7 with 4 with 6,11  = 3 x 1 x 2 x $2 = $12 

Ticket 3: 2,3,7 with 3,4,8 with 6 = 3 x 3 x 1 x $2 = $18 

Total Wager: $42