Happier Looks to Fulfill Promise In Career Debut

Race 4: CAJUN TREASURE (#1, 5-2)

A son of Treasure Beach has yet to visit the winners circle in seven starts with one third-place finish but CAJUN TREASURE will be making his first start for $32,000 N2L claiming price and has shown respectable form versus tough competition in his last two starts. The Peter Eurton trainee returned from a 309-day layoff in Allowance N1X mile turf event and crossed the wire in front of only one entrant beaten seven and a quarter lengths behind next to last winner Border Town. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “had speed then stalked the pace inside, came out into the stretch, still there passing midstretch, weakened the final furlong.” This race earned excellent 92 Beyer Speed Figure and validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the third-place finisher Southern King returned to win Allowance N1X with 89 Beyer Speed Figure and the fifth-place finisher Irish Heatwave returned to win Allowance N1X with 89 Beyer Speed Figure with the winner returning to run sixth in the Grade 3 American Handicap earning 91 Beyer Speed Figure. He dropped in class against a Starter Optional Claiming price of $40,000 on June 21 and split the seven horse field crossing the wire fourth. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “settled inside 5 lengths down, inching forward up the rail in the far turn, lacking the final punch to contend.” He will now make his third race off the extended layoff and more importantly drops into $32,000 N2L claiming price for the first time. The gelding switches to jockey Umberto Rispoli for the first time and in the past year they connected to win at 40% (10/4-0-3) and from his thirteen wins this meet, he leads the jockey standings with nine victories on the turf. He should get the coveted ground saving stalk and pounce trip from his rail post position. Kris’ Wild Kat will go straight to the lead with Tromador, Georgian Road, and All American Hero forwardly placed close to the lead and I expect Umberto Rispoli to save ground in mid-pack and unleash a strong late kick with the field’s best TimeformUS late pace rating and he is realistically placed in N2L to visit the winners circle for the first time since February 28, 2019. 

Wagering Strategy: 

Daily Double part-wheel: #1 Cajun Treasure, #2 Honos Man with #3 Happier. 

Pick 3 part-wheel: #1 Cajun Treasure, #2 Honos Man with #3 Happier with #4 Go Daddy Go. 

Race 5: HAPPIER (#3, 4-1)

This is a subpar maiden field to end the early Pick 5. Outside of Last First Kiss and the morning line favorite Hamiko each horse entrant in this field has earned Beyer Speed Figures that are below par for this class level (Beyer par 77). The morning line favorite Hamiko enters this race with the field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure of 87 and co-highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure of 99. The half sister to Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up Bodemeister showed a clear affinity for the main track when second behind her favored stablemate Provocation in her second career start on June 21 where she finished eleven and a half lengths in front of the rest of the field in a race that was match race between the two Bob Baffert trainees. The negative about that race was it favored horses on or near the early lead with below average Moss Pace Figures (-14,-5) and blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. Instead I will go with the higher price of the three Bob Baffert trainees and she is making her debut. HAPPIER has always been highly regarded ever since she was the highest priced yearling by the sire Street Sense at the Keeneland September 2018 sale when the hammer dropped at $800,000. Her dam, On My Way, has produced two winners from three starters including stakes winner King Zachery who won four of ten starts on the main track routing with a career best 98 Beyer Speed Figure and her sire connects at 12% with first time starters. Trainer Bob Baffert has always been dangerous with debuting maidens sprinting on the main track but it is almost automatic when his maidens make their debut here at Del Mar. In the past three years, he has connected at 50% (23-for-46) with debuting maidens who make their debut at Del Mar sprinting on the main track. The well bred bay filly has worked in exceptional manner for her career debut making the Handicapper’s Report Fit and Ready list including a rare A- move on July 8 where she recorded six furlongs in 1:11 flat from the gate where the HR clocker stated “sensational work, tab the unraced $800K three-year-old Street Sense filly in her upcoming debut.” Leading rider Flavien Prat is in the irons and without the recency she could go overlooked with all the action surrounding Hamiko in her third career start as my BEST BET on the card. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (3) HAPPIER at 5-2 or better.  

Daily Double part-wheel: #3 Happier with #4 Go Daddy Go

  

Race 6: GO DADDY GO (#4, 7-2)

The morning line favorite is Tiberius Mercurius who has crossed the wire first in his last two starts but was disqualified from his win on November 16 for bothering a rival towards the wire and was placed second. He returned from a 216-day layoff on June 19 and officially broke his maiden by a head but did so in a visually unimpressive manner versus a field filled with trial maidens. In that race, he sat second long shot loose leader Fire Polish for the first half mile, bid outside that rival at the top of the stretch, and finally got by that rival at mid-stretch and barely held off War Path to win by a head. The race has produced five starters to run back and it has produced three second-place finishes, one third, and one off the board finish in this subpar maiden field. He steps up to face winners and will have to prove he can move forward in his second start off the layoff. GO DADDY GO will make his third start following a 91-day layoff and each start is better than the previous start. He made his first start off the layoff on May 24 and finished fifth beaten only length and three-quarter lengths in a race that is much better than what his past performances would indicate as he received a less than stellar ride from Umberto Rispoli. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “he settled midpack early then tracked the pace two-deep, moved up prematurely to force the pace three-deep, then took back again to stalk leaving the backstretch, two-deep around the far turn, came out a bit into the stretch, no rally.” Although the first six place finishers are separated by length and a half, this race produced two next out winners with the winner Red King returned to win the Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano earning 92 Beyer Speed Figure (nine point improvement) and the last place finisher Posterize cut back to a sprint and switched to dirt to win open $32,000 claiming event with 85 Beyer Speed Figure. In his last start, the son of Scat Daddy rallied to be third as the first two finishers ran third and second after the first half mile with Lincoln City returned to win Allowance N1X with 87 Beyer Speed Figure. He comes into this race with three works including a nice half mile spin in 47 ⅘ on July 12 that the Handicapper’s Report clocker gave a B stating “pulling well clear in 47.3, lightly asked, a nice work.” The Brian Koriner trainee should get a good ground saving stalk and pounce trip with the sprinter Silenced stretching out to a route dictating the early lead and this cheasnut colt should get stalk and pounce trip from post position four. He earned the highest last race Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure of 85 and 110 respectively and should be set for a winning performance in his third race into his form cycle. 

Wagering Strategies: 

WIN bet on (4) GO DADDY GO at 5-2 or better. 

No other plays. 

  

Neptune's Storm Looks to Shake Loose in the Eddie Read

Race 7: POSTERIZE (#4, 8-1)

Although the TimeformUS pace projector does not have a blue coding to indicate the race shape will favor horses on or near the front end, this open $32,000 claiming sprint does not have a lot of early speed signed on. The clear pacesetter will be I’m Busy making his first start off the claim for Mark Glatt off five and half length victory versus the $20,000 claiming company at Churchill Downs where the horses entered have not won three races. He enjoyed ideal conditions in that race as he was loose on an uncontested early lead through slow early fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (-4,-3) and kicked clear earning a career best 82 and 105 Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure respectively. He will have a pace rival to deal in POSTERIZE who is twice the price on the morning line and has shown the ability to handle pace pressure in the past. The Ian Kruljac trainee is clearly at home at today’s six furlong distance with a record of 6/2-2-0 while she is 11/1-1-2 at other distances. The son of Shackleford most recent two dirt sprints resulted in a win and a second-place finish and that latter performance showed she can take on pace pressure and run a winning effort in defeat. In that race February 16 effort, POSTERIZE was parked four wide in a four-horse battle for the early lead through a 22.09 second opening quarter and continued three wide on the far turn through 45.19 second half mmile. He was able to shake loose from those three pace rivals to opened up length and half lead at mid-stretch only to be run down by the opportunistic stalking winner Tigre Di Slugo to finish second beaten two and quarter lengths to earn a then career best 82 and 107 Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure respectively. His three pace rivals tired to finish fourth, eighth, and tenth as he won the early pace battle but lost the war in a “key” race that saw the third-and-sixth place finishers returned to win. After a failed dirt route and then finishing last in a one-mile turf event, he turned back to six furlongs on June 20 and took advantage of a paceless sprint to score the minor upset. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, he “went to the lead, set a controlled tempo under pressure, in deep water past the quarter-pole, kicked away at the head of the lane, shifted about, held sway to the wire,” earning a career best 85 Beyer Speed Figure that equals the par for this class level. He exits an eleventh and last place finish on opening weekend where she flashed speed to chase the very fast early pace set by King Eddie in a one-mile turf route who earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and tired to finish last. The turf-to-dirt and route-to-sprint move has proven accurate for Ian Kruljac barn who has won at gaudy 67% (6/4-1-0) in the past five years and none of those four winners went off favored. He finds a field once again not loaded with plethora of early speed as I’m Busy is his only real pace rival and he has drawn the rail. Regular pilot Giovanni Franco should enjoy a pace pressing trip in the clear and if he can duplicate any of his previous two dirt sprints in today’s race he should be a tough rival to run down in the start of today’s late Pick 5. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (4) POSTERIZE at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: 4-1, 4-2. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #4 Postertize with #1 Bowie’s Hero, #6 Neptune’s Storm 

Pick 3 part-wheel: #4 Postertize with #1 Bowie’s Hero, #6 Neptune’s Storm with #8 Adare

Race 8: NEPTUNE’S STORM (#6, 6-1)

The morning line favorite United should be respected as he comes into this race with consecutive victories in the Grade 2 San Marcos and Charles Whittingham. The runner-up to last year’s horse of the year, Bricks and Mortor, might today’s conditions not be ideal for him. Firstly is the distance as he turns back to a mile and an eighth and two of his four wins on the turf have been at mile and a quarter with his two narrow defeats at mile and a half. Secondly, he finds a field that lacks quality early speed to set up for his late kick. Although he has never won in three wins over the Del Mar turf course, NEPTUNE’S STORM will enjoy a decided pace advantage over his field this afternoon as he is the field’s confirmed pacesetter according to TimeformUS pace projector in a field filled with horses that do their best running from midpack or towards the rear of the field. He made his first start off a 149-day layoff in ambitious spot the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile on May 25 where he tired to finish seventh in a race where the early speed among Voodoo Song, Neptune’s Storm, Blitzkrieg, and War of Will set or chased an insanely fast early pace that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures that resulted in a pace collapsed where the first three finishers rallied from eighth, tenth, and sixth after the first half-mile. The form of the fast pace was flattered when War of Will returned to win Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure and Blitzkrieg found a paceless field and won Grade 3 American Handicap with a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. The son of Stormy Atlantic shipped to Golden Gate for the Grade 3 San Francisco Turf Mile and paralyed perfect pace scenario and trip to win by a head over a very game Kiwi’s Dream. In that race, he sat just off the latter for the entire race as those two crawled through slow early fractions earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He poked his head in front at mid-stretch and had to fight all the way to the wire as Kiwi’s Dream refused to yield easily winning by a head in a race that saw the first three finishers run second, first, and third after the first half mile. The form of this race was flattered when Kiwi’s Dream returned to run second in the Wickker Stakes on opening weekend earning 96 Beyer Speed Figure but earned a 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure because he disputed a very fast pace and ran second in that aforementioned race.  The Richard Baltas trainee makes his third race into his form cycle and comes into this race with four works including half-mile spin with stablemate Applecross on July 19 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington gave a B stating “much the best inside Applecross in 24.1, 47.4 (23.3 LQ). Fires big right back.” Jockey Drayden Van Dyke who rode Neptune’s Storm to two victories and a second in three starts is reunited in the saddle and this bay gelding will be ultra tough to run down if given the trip that TimeformUS pace projector and on paper he figures to get and that is uncontested trip on the front end. Come catch him. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (6) NEPTUNE’S STORM at 3-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: 6-1. Small reverse. 

Small Exacta: 6-2. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #1 Bowie’s Hero, #6 Neptune’s Storm with #8 Adare

Race 9: ADARE (#8, 12-1)

The horse that exits the best last race is the morning line favorite Frair’s Road who crossed the wire sixth in a seven horse field the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby won by Honor A.P. (102 Beyer Speed Figure) and the form of that race was flattered when the second place finisher Authentic returned to win Grade 1 Haskell with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. The issue with Frair’s Road is before that debacle, this son of Quality Road is developing a case of being bridesmaid with consecutive runner-up efforts and one with excuse on May 2 where he ran into traffic issues for more than a half-mile before being extricated out of that trouble at the top of the stretch and rallied to be second behind opportunistic closing winner Hunt the Front. Instead I will look for a horse that projects to improve with more ground and also exits a fast race. ADARE finished third in his career debut behind the very fast Vertical Threat who improved to two for two in dirt sprints when he captured Smiling Tiger Stakes on July 25 with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure (three point improvement). Adare was sent off as the co longest shot on the toteboard at 30-1 because his trainer Neil Drysdale does not do well with debuting maidens in dirt sprints having won at 5% clip (19/1-1-2) in the past five years and watching the video replay of this colt’s seven furlong workout on June 8 on XBTV (Adare - June 8) he is long bodied and long striding son of Medaglia D’Oro that will appreciate route of ground. Despite his confirmation and his trainer’s poor statistics with first time starters, Adare actually outran his 30-1 odds to finish third in this much better than looked performance. He was bounced around at the start by the two Bob Baffert trainees Holden the Lute and Happy Hepo that resulted in him trailing the field down the backstretch racing on the rail early. The dark bay colt continued on the inside into the far turn where he made a nice run to get into contention then swung out four wide at the top of the stretch and delivered a good rally to the wire despite drifting inwards and galloped out with the winner Vertical Threat past the wire. This race served nothing more than a schooling run by trainer Neil Drysdale to stretch him to two turns which he gets to do today and he is half brother to Ocean Knight who won three of nine starts routing on the main track with a career best 97 Beyer Speed Figure. He has come back with three works including a six furlong move in 1:15 ⅕ on July 16 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved with a B+ stating “Giant sort looks like a nice sort breezing to the top under wraps then came to the line like a good thing off the rail while under some wraps. There is upside here.” Jockey Edwin Maldonado remains in the irons and at juicy 12-1 on the morning line he is the best value bet on today’s card at Del Mar. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (8) ADARE at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: 8-3, 8-6. No reverse. 

Small Exacta part-wheel: 8-10. No reverse. 

Guitty Looks for Clean Journey in San Clemente

Race 3: LAMBEAU (#6, 3-1) 

The morning line favorite Dark Vader comes into this race with the best last race 95 Beyer and 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure with his third-place finish in the G2 Triple Bend Handicap behind multiple Grade 1 winner McKenzie. That was his first start in 338-days and he is eligible to improve but this five-year old has two issues that can compromise his chances on the drop in class. First is the likely early pace of this race as TimeformUS pace projector predicts this race will unfold at a tepid pace and this mid-pack stalker is dependent on the early speed coming back to him and second he has yet to show the winning spirit with six combined seconds or thirds from twelve starts. The lack of early speed in this race really helps LAMBEAU to dictate his own terms on the front end for the Zenyatta connections of Jerry Moss, trainer John Shirreffs, and jockey Mike Smith. He is at home at this one mile distance with a record of 3/2-0-1 and exits a fast pace gate to wire score at this trip sixty-nine days ago at Santa Anita. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the son of First Sarmurai “avoided pressure to open up around the first turn and onto the backstretch, Smith allowed him to take a breather around the far turn, turned back a challenge from the runner-up leaving that bend to deep stretch, kicked away again to the wire,” earning the third-highest last race 92 Beyer and second-highest last race 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field. The dark bay or brown colt set a very fast early pace as he earned off the chart Moss Pace Figures (+16, +7) and he owns the best TimeformUS early pace rating in this field making him the clear pacesetter in this event. The form of his allowance victory was validated when second-and-fourth place finishers returned to run second-and-first at the same class level in their next start earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 93 and 94 respectively and the seventh-place finisher Justin’s Quest duplicated his 80 Beyer Speed Figure when he dropped to N2L claiming event and won by a half-length in his next start. The brief hiatus of sixty-nine days is strong strength for the John Shiirreffs barn as he has won at 33% (18/6-4-3) in the past five years with his dirt routers returning off a sixty to eighty day layoff. With Mike Smith aggressive front running tactics, LAMBEAU should make the early lead into the first turn and down the backstretch and prove a tough rival to run down as the pacesetter and our BEST BET on today’s card. 

Wagering Strategy:

Main Exacta part-wheel: 6-3. No reverse. 

Smaller Exacta part-wheel: 6-7. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #6 Lambeau with #6 Secret Keeper 

Pick 3 part-wheel: #6 Lambeau with #6 Secret Keeper with #8 Never Be Enough, #1 Unicorn, and #3 Woodfin. 

Race 4: SECRET KEEPER (#6, 9-2)

The majority of the betting public will either concede this race to the Bob Baffert uncoupled entry mates Meredith and flashy maiden winner Provocation who will go off favored over her stablemate. My issue with both horses is they each broke their maiden around one turn and did so under ideal circumstances where they were going to deliver winning performances that earned them “ridden out” chart comment. Meredith broke her maiden on April 19 over a sloppy main track at Oaklawn Park where she pressed the pace in the clear, took over from overmatched leaders, and geared down earning career best 91 Beyer and 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The issue with that win was she pressed a very slow early pace according to Moss Pace Figures (-16, -4) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures versus a sub-par field as the nine-horses that have run back it has produced only one winner, Ocean Breeze, who earned improved 80 Beyer Speed Figure and the rest of the field are combined produced three third-place finishers and five that finished off the board. Provocation broke her maiden on closing day of Santa Anita where it was a match race between her and stable mate Himiko as those two finished eleven and a half lengths in front of the rest of the field with Provocation able to dictate terms on the front end and won by length and three-quarters “handily.” The issue with that win is the slow pace she dictated as she earned below average Moss Pace Figures (-14, -5) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. I will play against both at short prices and go for another maiden winner in SECRET KEEPER. Another daughter of Into Mischief, she was ignored in her career debut going off at 10-1 on May 25 in a race where the Bob Baffert trained first time starter, Fierce for Sul, was sent off at 3-5 and this Cliff Sise Jr. trainee proved she was ready for the challenge running down that rival to score the upset. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “she ran off the rail 4 lengths down, working a bit to keep her margin even in the turn, coming into the lane wide, maintaining her effort, driving by in the final 1/16th to win going away.” Despite only earning a 77 Beyer Speed Figure, her 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure is on par with the two favorites in this field. She will make her first start off a sixty-one day layoff and she trained very well over the Del Mar surface posting three works locally including five furlong move in 59 ⅘ on July 11 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “sharp looking spin looping around a barnmate and a 4f working M McCarthy trainee going clear in a big 36.4, 59.3 (22.4 LQ). Loads to like here.” She has speed to lead but if Meredith and Provocation elect to go as TimeformUS pace projector predicts then jockey Abel Cedillo can place SECRET KEEPER in third just off those two leaders in the garden spot and pounce. At a price that will be much higher and credentials to win, this home bred filly is the clear choice to upset the top two finishers and can spice up prices in multi-race bets with a win in this first condition Allowance event. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (6) SECRET KEEPER at 7-2 or better. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #6 Secret Keeper with #8 Never Be Enough, #1 Unicorn, and #3 Woodfin. 

Race 5: NEVER BE ENOUGH (#8, 9-2) 

The morning line favorite Pretty Point drops from Possibly Perfect Stakes where she finished third behind three time stakes winner Dogtag and finished in front of Streak of Luck who returned to win $75,000 stakes at Canterbury Downs in her next start. The belief in the betting public is the extra eighth of a mile of this 1-⅜ distance will benefit her closing kick but she is a filly that is another that lacks winning spirit as she has combined to finish second or third five times from twelve starts. Although the TimeformUS pace projector does not predict a slow pace, there is a lack of confirmed early pace in this field and with her lack of winning punch in the stretch and lack of speed in this field, Pretty Point is a bet against her in this field. The distance will pose no problem for NEVER BE ENOUGH who successfully won going two miles over testing soft ground on the hurdles back in August 2019. She also proved adept at flat racing winning twice at the distance of mile and seventy yards on firm ground. The daughter of Sir Percy made her first start off a 118-day layoff on May 17 for a claiming price of $40,000 and she ran a respectable third beaten three lengths behind the favored gate to wire winner True to Herself. In that race, she sat off the favored winner in the two path early as the winner was allowed to dictate a very slow early pace earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-17, -8) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. The Manuel Badilla trainee made her run at the leader at the top of the stretch but the layoff and the winner being fresh after setting a slow pace proved too much as she tired in the final furlong to be third with her uncoupled stablemate Qafilah rallied to finish second. That race served as perfect prep as she came back twenty-seven days later and won with a perfect trip. In that race she saved ground for the majority of the race sitting in fourth behind three-horse speed duel early, came off the rail and split rivals in the stretch and won going away defeating next out winner Northwest Factor in the process. Never Be Enough earned a career best 85 Beyer Speed Figure and that figure is validated by the run backs in that field. Northwest Factor earned a 77 Beyer Speed Figure (six point improvement), Reginella earned a 75 Beyer Speed Figure in her next start (four point improvement), and Lasting Light earned a 72 Beyer Speed Figure (eighteen point improvement) finishing second in N2X in her next start. She ships to Del Mar for the first time at a distance that will pose no issue and surface she handled equally well in England. She has come back with two works over the Del Mar main track that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved giving both a B+ but her 1:00 ⅗ spin on July 11 stood out as he commented she was “full of run in this spin going faster than given while striding out in 34.3, 59.0. Going great these days.” Jockey Evan Roman rides her for the first time and in a field filled with midpack or closers, she is the projected pacesetter in this field according to TimeformUS pace projector and she should dictate terms on the front end and should be set for another winning effort in her third start off the layoff. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (8) NEVER BE ENOUGH at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #1 Unicorn, #3 Woodfin. Small reverse. 

Race 7: TILTED TOWERS (#8, 8-1)

This wide open maiden sprint on the turf can go many ways but one note I had on my DRF Formulator past performances to play against horses running back from the maiden turf sprint on June 14 won by long shot Tripoli as that race was visually unimpressive with the first seven finishers separated by three and a half lengths and visual aspect was matched by the speed figure as it earned subpar 72 Beyer Speed Figure and second choice on the morning line, Absolute Unit, exits that race and that was his third runner-up finish from seven starts and is developing a case of being a bridesmaid. The field’s most likely pacesetter belongs to my top preference TILTED TOWERS who will make her second career start off a 420-day layoff where he flashed speed and weakened to defeat one rival in a seven-horse field in his only start. He is by Atreides who won four of five starts in his brief career including his first three by a combined twenty-five and three-quarter lengths with Beyer Speed Figures of 105, 102, and 105. His dam Rich Love won only once in six starts but that one win was her second career start where she won sprinting on the turf. He got support in his first start going off as the 6-1 third choice where she was step slow from the start, rushed up to contest a very fast first quarter of a mile with the favored winner Comical Ghost, continued to duel with that rival around the far turn and tried to hang tough with that rival to the top of the stretch before finally giving way to lose by twelve and a half lengths in a race where the winner earned 88 Beyer Speed Figure. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to repeat her 88 Beyer Speed Figure winning Allowance N1X, third-place finisher Oakland Mills returned to break his maiden with a 82 Beyer Speed Figure (eight point improvement) and the fourth-place finisher earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure (five point improvement) in his next start. Despite the long layoff, TILTED TOWERS has returned with a series of strong drills at Los Alamitos capped off by 59 second move from the gate on July 18 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “strong from the gate with Foster Boi going better than mate in 59. Big series for return.” He earned above average Moss Pace Figure for the first quarter of a mile (+4) and red coded TimeformUS pace figure for that lone race and she is projected to be the field’s pacesetter in this field. In a field where the morning line favorite is trying the turf for the first time and the second choice exits subpar race, TILTED TOWERS is a new face where strong series of B workouts according to National Turf workout report and early speed to make him dangerous on the front end under new rider Abel Cedillo. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (8) TILTED TOWERS at 5-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #5 Mystery Man, #6 Highly Distorted, and #10 Colossal Storm. Small reverse. 

Pick 3 part-wheel: #5 Mystery Man, #6 Highly Distorted, #8 Tilted Towers, #10 Colossal Storm with #10 Zimba Warrior with #10 Guitty, #3 Laura’s Light, #9 Warren’s Showtime

Race 8: ZIMBA WARRIOR (#10, 6-1)

The morning line favorite Hidden Promise exits a second-place finish versus older rivals in a $30,000 N2L claiming event beaten a head. However that race visually was not as impressive as the finish position and beaten margin would indicate. The Blame gelding enjoyed a perfect trip stalking in third in the clear as the eventual winner Queen’s Mason pressed a slow early pace that earned below average Moss Pace Figures (-7, -5) and blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He ranged up alongside the winner at the top of the stretch to poke his head in front past mid-stretch and was out finished towards the wire to lose by a head showing lack of gameness in the stretch. In addition, the form of that race matched my visual impression of that race as it has produced five horses to return and all five horses including the winner returned to finish off the board with four of those runners regressed in their Beyer Speed Figures. The gamble is that It's That Time will flee from post position two and Antitheical will press him from the outside to set up for the late kick of ZIMBA WARRIOR who drops into a claiming only event for the first time. I will draw a line through his most recent debacle where he trailed throughout in the one mile Alcatraz Stakes on the turf behind the winner Kanderel who returned to run second behind the favorite Hit It A Bomb in the opening day Oceanside Stakes. The Khozan colt sprinted in his two previous starts and each start would be good enough to win this event. The last time he sprinted on the main track was on May 25 at Santa Anita where he rallied from last in a five horse field to be second behind Ragtime Blue who was able to enjoy an uncontested lead through moderate early fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (-3, -3). Although the race only produced one next out winner in Mo Hawk, the run backs of the entrants in this field prove the race was better than the 79 Beyer Speed Figure it earned. The winner earned a 83 Beyer Speed Figure (four point improvement) finishing second in Laz Berrera Stakes behind sprint specialist Colliusion Illusion and the third thru fifth place finishers improved their Beyer Speed Figures by ten, eight, and eighteen points respectively in their next start. Before that runner-up performance, this Keith Desormeaux trainee ran second behind the best of speed winner Jive Talkin in Allowance N1X on the tapeta at Golden Gate where he rallied for second against a strong speed bias. This is a significant drop in class as the previous time he ran for a claiming tag on May 25 that race was an Allowance event with Optional Claiming price of $80,000 and this race is restricted to claiming only. Jockey Kent Desormeaux knows this colt having ridden him in four of ten starts and this chesnut has back class having finished third behind subsequent UAE 2000 Guineas winner Fore Left as a two-year old and was third behind eventual Grade 1 Haskell winner Authentic in the Grade 3 Sham at the beginning of the year. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (10) ZIMBA WARRIOR at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #2 It’s That Time and #7 Antitheical. No reverse. 

Small Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #3 Hidden Promise. No reverse. 

Daily Double part-wheel: #10 Zimba Warrior with #10 Guitty, #3 Laura’s Light, #9 Warren’s Showtime

Race 9: GUITTY (#10, 20-1)

I do not have knocks on the two morning line favorites Laura’s Light and Warren’s Showtime except for the price they are expected to be at post time. Outside of the price aspect there is one entrant in this field that ran behind those two rivals that was compromised by consecutive bad trips that with a clean trip she deserves a chance to turn the tables at what should be a giant price. GUITTY flashed ability in her first two starts here at Del Mar over this same one-mile trip before she went off form at the end of last year. She returned from a sixty-nine day layoff in the China Doll Stakes on March 7 and finished sixth in a bunched field that saw the first ten separated by five lengths but GUITTY did not have the best of trips. She broke from post twelve in a thirteen horse field and found herself three wide into and around the first turn and raced that wide on the backstretch. The Leonard Powell trainee found herself in traffic issues on the far turn running three wide and had her momentum briefly stalled behind a wall of rivals entering the stretch, angled five wide at the top of the stretch, split rivals, and finished well to lose by less than three-lengths. The extent of her bad trip is reflected in Trakus as she covered 35 feet more than the winner Warren’s Showtime. She stretched out an additional furlong in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes on May 30 and did not get the best of rides by jockey Brice Blanc. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she was “forced in at the break and took up linking up with the course proper, traveled keenly at the rear of the field, taken three-wide by her pilot approaching the half-mile pole, circled the field into the far turn, kept coming three-wide in the far turn, carried five-wide into the lane, bid to midstretch, in tight and steadied, flipped onto her wrong lead, plodded to the wire.” After consecutive bad trips, she switches to new rider Juan Hernandez who was aboard the Powell trained Proud Pedro (July 24, 2020, $21) to win Allowance N2X going 1-⅜ miles on the turf yesterday and GUITTY has really blossomed since returning to Del Mar according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. She has worked twice over the Del Mar turf course both B+ moves with her July 7 work in 49 seconds flat Andy commented “full of run in this solo move rolling home with a strong pull in 25.2, 49.0 (23.3 LQ). Feeling great down here.” With the dedicated front runner in Cheermeister and morning line favorite Laura’s Light not too far behind, the pace should be honest for GUITTY’s late kick. At her morning line and with a clean trip, the gamble is she can turn the tables on her aforementioned rivals to spring the major upset in the San Clemente. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on (10) GUITTY at 10-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #3 Laura’s Light and #9 Warren’s Showtime. Small reverse. 

Mischiffie Looks For Pace Meltdown in Daisycutter

Race 3: NORTH COUNTY GUY (#6, 5-2)

The gray gelding by The Pamplemousse returns to Del Mar and stretches out to the distance of 1-⅜ where he accomplished his previous victory over these identical conditions on November 24, 2019. The Richard Baltas trainee lost his next two starts but a closer examination of each start reveals he ran better than the fifth and second place finish would indicate and he looks primed to bounce back. He ran fifth beaten five and half lengths behind the last to first winner Desert Stone in the Grade 2 San Gabriel Stakes on January 4 where he had a terrible trip from start to finish. He was bumped hard by a rival at the start and raced three wide into and around the first turn and continued racing three wide down the backstretch. The gelding was under a drive on the far turn racing three to four wide and was floated five to six wide at the top of the stretch and offered no rally in a race that I will dismiss because of the tough trip he endured. He returned to his proper Allowance N2X class level on February 29, 2020 and he was no match for the last to first winner Originnaire. In that race, North County Guy had the perfect trip saving ground in fourth into and around the first turn and raced in the two path down the backstretch behind a three-horse speed duel through very fast fractions that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures through the first six furlongs. He made a move into the teeth of that fast pace to take over the lead into the top of the stretch but was blown away by the last to first winner Originnaire who returned to finish third beaten a half-length but was promoted to second via disqualification in the Grade 2 Charles Whittingham duplicating his 100 Beyer Speed Figure. North County Guy will make his first time off 146-day layoff but trainer Richard Baltas is proficient with turf starters returning off a long layoff. His two wins this meet, Bob and Jackie (July 11, 2020, $8.20-1) and Aqua Seaform Shame (July 10, 2020, $1.40-1), returned off a 196 and 238-day layoff respectively to emerge victorious. He has returned with nine consecutive workouts including his last two being best of the morning moves at San Luis Rey Downs and today’s pace scenario will favor his running style. TimeformUS pace projector suggest no speed in this event and with his ability to lead as he did in his previous win over this layout last November or sit off the pace and pounce like last time makes North County Guy dangerous on or near the front end to get the jump on likely morning line favorite Border Town. 

Wagering Strategy:

Main Daily Double: #6 with #5 Big Sweep

Main Pick 3: #6 with #5 Big Sweep with #7 Gypsy Blu, #9 Bulletproof One

Race 4: BIG SWEEP (#5, 9-5)

The daughter of Mr. Big has been well backed in her three starts being sent off as the favorite and suffered her first career defeat last time Melair Stakes where she finished badly beaten third beaten 4-¼ lengths behind Warren’s Showtime who rallied from second to last to emerge victorious. The Mark Glatt trainee is undefeated in two starts around one turn including her debut where she showed early speed from her rail post position to dispute the lead through very slow early fractions that earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures shook free of her early pace rivals to kick clear into the stretch and won going away by two and quarter widening lengths. She returned from a sixty-three day layoff facing males in the Echo Eddie Stakes and showed she is adaptable running from off the pace to be undefeated in her first two starts. She raced towards the rear of the field as Stir the Pot and Bettor Trip Nick dueled through a contested opening quarter of 21.56 seconds. She started to commence her run around the far turn, loomed four wide into the stretch and rallied to wear down Rookie Mistake to win by head earning an 86 Beyer Speed Figure that was four points faster than the fillies division won by Smiling Shirlee two races later. She met that aforementioned rival in the Melair Stakes on June 21 her first start behind six furlongs and she found the distance too long tiring to finish third. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “had the dirt break out from under her left hind foot, making her break a step slow, ending up settling on the leader’s flank, fighting between foes in the far turn, scuffling home as the top two ran away from her.” She turns back to seven furlongs off this route debacle and in the past year trainer Mark Glatt has been deadly with that move. He has won at 33% (15/5-2-1) with turn backs on the main track in the past year and next to the cut back, Big Sweep finds a field not loaded with a plethora of early speed. TimeformUS pace projector predicts this race will favor horses on or near the front end with Loud Loud Music the only other entrant with early speed. I expect jockey Flavien Prat to duplicate his tactics of using her early speed to be on the front end and attempt for Warren’s Showtime or Smiling Shirlee to try to catch this filly in the stretch as a standout.

Wagering Strategy: 

Main Daily Double: #5 Big Sweep with #7 Gypsy Blu, #9 Bulletproof One

Race 5: BULLETPROOF ONE (#9, 9-2)

The California-bred daughter of Idiot Proof is a one dimensional front runner who has only one way of going, go straight to the front and come catch me if you can. She used those tactics to win two straight over the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate including her last victory on March 27 where she set the early pace from post two to clear the field around the far turn and opened up a five length lead at mid-stretch and won by comfortable three-lengths ridden out as the 1-5 post time favorite. The noteworthy part of that win was the early pace she established as she earned off the chart Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile of that 5-½ furlong event (+15,+5). The Peter Miller trainee stepped up in class to face stakes company in the Evening Jewel on May 16 where she tried to finish sixth in a race where another very fast pace and speed duel compromised her chances. According to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “worked to the lead, set blazing fractions in tandem down the backstretch (with Dim Lights), put away her pace foe in the far turn (finished 8th beaten 16 lengths), led to the head of the lane, swarmed from all sides, gave way.” The stalkers and closers dominated this sprint event as the first five finishers rallied from 7th, 3rd, 9th, 6th, and 5th. She earned off the chart first quarter Moss Pace Figure (+9) and she makes her first start off a sixty-nine day layoff for trainer Peter Miller who has won at 25% the past year (8/2-2-0) with turf sprinters returning off a layoff between fifty to ninety-days. She meets a pace rival in Tijori but that rival that has not seen the speed that Bulletproof One has displayed and furthermore this bay filly gets a break in the weights. Being a three-year old filly she is at 121 lbs and being that she is non-winners since April 24 she gets another four pounds as she comes into this race at 117 lbs as she gets six pounds from her stablemate Querelle and four pounds from the others in this field. She is reunited with Ricky Gonzalez who was aboard this fillies two wins at Golden Gate and in the past five years the team of Gonzalez and Peter Miller have won at 31% (16/5-5-2) with sprint starters. She leads the field in TimeformUS early pace rating and is the leader down the backstretch according to Pace Projector. If she can duplicate her two wins over the Tapeta surface she will loom tough to catch at a hint of a price to end the early Pick Five. 

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on #9 Bulletproof One at 4-1 or better. 

Main Exacta: #9 with #7 Gypsy Blu. Small reverse. 

Race 9: MISCHIFFIE (#4, 12-1) 

The daughter of Sir Prancelot is a specialist over this Del Mar turf course at today’s five furlong distance. From four starts, she has a win and two seconds with her only debacle occurred when she broke through the gate before start and finished eighth. The last time she raced over this layout happened last November when she ran second behind today’s favorite Steal the Diamonds. In that race, she was out sprinted early racing in the two path and trailed the field early behind speed duel between Steal the Diamonds and Kentan Road, she moved up on the far turn in the two path, angled three wide at the top of the stretch, and closed well to be second behind the gate to wire winner who returned to run second versus males in the Sensational Star Handicap and was third beaten a length in the Grade 2 Monrovia in her last start. She went off form in her next three starts racing at a distance that is too far in the Lady of Shamrock (one-mile) and had the disadvantage of breaking from the rail in her next two starts where she broke slow on February 2 and broke through the gate before the start two starts ago. She was given a break after that debacle and returned from 103-day layoff on June 12 and returned to spring a 16-1 upset to parlay a gate to wire victory under ideal circumstances. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she was “sent to set a pressured pace through very slow splits (blue coded TimeformUS pace figures), came off the rail and kicked away in upper stretch, clear deep stretch, and just held to the wire over favored closer Querelle. Although she encountered ideal setup in her last start, this bay filly is best off the pace and that’s where she will find herself today with TimeformUS pace projector predicting a fast pace engaged among morning line favorite Steal the Diamonds, Surrender Now, and the fast Artistic Diva as those fillies have 115 plus TimeformUS early pace ratings to ensure that fast pace and you can add Tomlin to the mix of contested speed duel. Mischiffie has potent late kick as the field’s lone closer in this field and the best TimeformUS closing pace rating in this field. Ruben Fuentas who rode her last time is back in the irons and she was visually impressive outworking Distant Vista on July 12 and July 19 here at Del Mar. She will be a juicy price in her return to stakes company but she adores this layout and gets race setup to flatter her closing kick.  

Wagering Strategy:

WIN bet on #4 MISCHIFFIE at 8/1 or higher.

Main Exacta part wheel: #4 with #6 Jo Jo Air, #7 Storming Lady. 

P R Radio Star Looks to Ship and Win

Race 8: GOING TO VEGAS (#8, 12-1)

This three-year old filly by Goldencents could prove a timely claim by trainer Richard Baltas. The bay filly has won three of her last four starts at one-mile on the turf and her lone debacle in that series happen on March 22 when she broke from outermost post eleven in an eleven horse field and was parked four wide into and around the first turn, ducked into the two path down the backstretch before finding the rail on the far turn and had no late kick crossing the wire seventh at similar class level as today’s event. She dropped in for a claiming price of $50,000 in her first start off an eighty-two day layoff and took full advantage of a perfect Flavien Prat ride and very fast pace to score as the 4-5 post time favorite. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “raced midpack two-deep by the stands and around the first turn, dropped further off the pace onto the backstretch, gained around the far turn, full of run three-deep into the lane, ran by her rivals with one big swoop to take over passing midstretch, opened up the final furlong.” Her closing kick was flattered by a very fast pace speed duel between Savvy Gal and Lovely Lila as those two dueled through the first half mile that was fast enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She was claimed by today’s trainer Richard Baltas and in the past five-years at Del Mar horses making their first start off the claim in a turf route here at Del Mar has been a profitable move. He has won at 29% clip (14/4-0-4) including his most recent acquisition Super Patriot (August 17, 2019, $9.00-1) who he claimed from a $32,000 N1Y on June 8, 2019 and returned off a seventy-day layoff to win her first start off the claim. Although she rallied from sixth in a eight-horse field in her most recent start, she has shown the ability to lay close to the early lead by her two prior wins before her last and with My Little Runaway the field’s confirmed pacesetter, jockey Jose Validivia Jr can place Going to Vegas close to the early lead at what should be a moderate early pace and get the first jump on her former stablemate California Kook and morning line favorite Red Lark. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (8) GOING TO VEGAS at 8-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #3 and #4. Small Reverse. 

Race 9: P R RADIO STAR (#4, 12-1) 

The horse to beat and to catch is the morning line favorite I Am the Danger but he is coming off a 525-day layoff and I prefer a horse with recency and this Warrior’s Reward gelding fits the profile. He is a win machine (8-for-28) who has visited the winner’s circle in three of six starts this year and loves today’s distance of six furlongs with a 7-for-20 record at this trip and is 1-for-8 at other distances. Prior to his last start, the bay gelding scored his eighth victory with a perfect trip four-length victory over $16,000 claiming company that proved to be a “key” race. In that race, he sat three-wide chasing a moderate pace set by the longshot leader Saturday Tryst early, made a three-wide move on the far turn to kick past Saturday Tryst and assumed command at mid-stretch, and won going away by four widening lengths. The 82 Beyer Speed Figure he earned was validated when the fourth-place finisher returned to win at the same level earning an improved 93 Beyer Speed Figure (22 point improvement) and ninth-place finisher returned in a restricted claiming event at Evagaline Downs and won turf sprint earning 81 Beyer Speed Figure (25 point improvement). He doubled jumped in class to $25,000 in his last start where his stalking style was hurt by a moderate early pace set by the gate to wire winner Hard Belle. In that race, he had perfect trip saving ground stalking the pacesetter on the rail and on the far turn, tipped out at mid-stretch and closed well to finish two and three-quarter lengths in front of Boyfriend Material who earned a improved 83 Beyer Speed Figure (9 point improvement). He will make his first start for Phil D’Amato and is eligible for Del Mar’s Ship and Win program. In the past five-years, his trainer has won at 38% clip (8/3-1-1) with dirt sprinters making their first start off the claim and two of them Easter Fever (December 1, 2016, $0.50-1) and W. Giles (July 31, 2015, $3.30-1) won here at Del Mar and this owner-trainer tandem just missed on Friday when Ronamo ran second beaten three-quarters of a length shipping in from Churchill Downs in his first start for this team. Flavien Prat takes over in the irons and if his half-mile spin in 47.1 is any indication on how well P R Radio Star is doing for his new connections then I expect another move forward to spring the upset.  

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (4) P R RADIO STAR at 6-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #6. Small Reverse. 

Race 10: GOLDEN DOUGHNUT (#6, 15-1)

The six-year old Golden Balls gelding was attempting the impossible on June 20 at Santa Anita. He was returning from a 994-day layoff in a one-mile turf event and was making his first start as a new gelding. It would have been acceptable if he ran around the racetrack and needed this race but the opposite happened as this James Cassidy trainee put in a very good effort in defeat to finish third in the nine-horse field and any improvement from that effort makes this chestnut eligible to spring the upset in the finale. Prior to that effort, he ran respectable with excuses in his first two starts for this barn. In his first race for James Cassidy he managed to split ten horse field after he had trailed fast pace, launched his rally from last on the far turn and into the stretch before steadying off horses heels in deep stretch costing him a better placing as he was actually running well until the incident happened. In his next start, he settled off the pace along the rail in mid-pack and then was prematurely moved to grab the lead on the far turn through a second quarter in 23.89 and third quarter in 22.93 which explains why he tired badly in the stretch but managed to split a twelve horse field in sixth. He was dismissed as the longest shot on the tote board at 53-1 in his last start and he outran those odds to finish third. He traveled in a comfortable spot on the rail in mid-field behind a very fast early (red coded pace figures) pressed by the winner Shadow Spinx, moved into contention on the far turn, tipped out to have dead aim at the winner at the top of the stretch, stayed on through the stretch while no match for the winner, and lost second Boogalute who rallied from sixth. He earned a respectable 83 and 107 Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure respectively and should move up with that race under his belt. He is reeled back in 22-days and drops into his restricted California-bred company for the first time and Humberto Figueroa who rode him last time returns in the irons. He is not the most probable winner but based on his efforts vs. open company and his return race off the long layoff, Golden Doughnut has every right to compete at this class level as there are no standouts in the Del Mar finale. 

Wagering Strategies:

WIN bet on (6) GOLDEN DOUGNUT at 8-1 or better. 

Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #11 and #13. Small Reverse.