Race 6: (5) ANNEAU D’ORO
The morning line favorite is the Bob Baffert trained Uncle Chuck (#4) who broke his maiden in gate to wire fashion by seven-lengths. He will step up to face Graded Stakes for the first time and closer inspection of his win and his trainer’s profile with this move provides reasons to go against this son of Uncle Mo. He earned a field’s best 95 Beyer Speed Figure and second highest last race 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure in that maiden win but the form of that race was not flattered when the third-place finisher, Big Cheddar, returned to finish third beaten 1-¾ lengths in a $40,000 maiden claiming event duplicating his 66 Beyer Speed Figure and regressed to 86 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He led gate to wire establishing a fast pace per the Moss Pace Figures (+6, +5) and sees him as the field’s probable pacesetter per the TimeformUS pace projector but in the past five years trainer Bob Baffert is not proficient with three-year old maiden winners making their second career start in Graded Stakes. According to the DRF Formulator, he is 5/1-2-0 with this move and has lost at odds of $2.20-1, $1.00-1, $1.40-1, and $0.60-1. Can this half brother to MacClean’s Music win this race? Yes. But at short odds, not a standout in speed figures, and with the items mentioned above I am willing to take a shot against him.
He has disappointed in four starts since his 28-1 runner-up performance in Breeders Cup Juvenile, but Anneau D’Oro (#5) has found a spot where this Blaine Wright trainee can be competitive. The son of Medaglia D’Oro did not handle the blinkers to his liking in the second division of Risen Star on February 15 where he had a very wide journey running three to four paths wide around both turns and encountered a very slow early pace per the Moss Pace Figures (-7,-3) won by the pace pressing winner Modernist in a race where two horses behind him, Mr. Big News and Finnick the Fierce, came back to win earning 87 and 80 Beyer Speed Figures respectively. He returned from a seventy-seven day layoff in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on May 2 at Oaklawn Park and ran into the favored uncontested gate to wire winner Charleton where he lost about two lengths breaking last from the start and rushed up to chase a very fast early pace that saw the fractions earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and gave way through the stretch to split the field. He returned four weeks later in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby where he broke cleanly to press the pace between rivals quick fractions set by Shooter’s Shoot. He stayed in contention to the top of the stretch before Authentic and eventual Honor A.P. seperated themselves from the field as Anneau D’Oro ran evenly to be third only to lose it to opportunistic stalker Rushie. He earned 94 Beyer Speed Figure and the highest last race 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the field and makes his third race into his form cycle as he is slowly rounding into form. With Uncle Chuck as the field’s pacesetter, jockey Victor Espinoza can use Anneau D’Oro’s early speed to stalk or press the latter early and prime position to pounce on him at what should be a price higher due to his recent form as a three-year-old.
Wagering Strategy: Uncle Chuck does not have an edge in speed figures and when combined with the field he defeated and trainer Bob Baffert’s profile with three-year old second start maiden winners in Graded Stakes I am willing to take a shot against him keying on ANNEAU D’ORO experience.
Daily Double: 5 with 5
Pick 3: 5 with 5 with 2
Pick 4: 5 with 5 with 2 with 3
Race 7: (5) ABUSIVE GARY
The morning line favorite Fellow Citizen (#3) drops to the lowest level of his career, $12,500 N2L, for high percentage connections trainer Peter Miller and jockey Flavien Prat. There are reasons to take a stand against this Proud Citizen gelding. He broke his maiden two starts back with ideal circumstances loose on an uncontested lead through very slow early fractions that earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures and below average Moss Pace Figures (-14, -7). He will not find those conditions in this race with Equipo A the field’s probable pacesetter according to TimeformUS pace projector with Abusive Gary and See Through It chasing or pressing him early. Next to not being fast enough to make the early lead, Fellow Citizen has yet to earn a Beyer or TimeformUS Speed Figure to make him competitive at this class level. He is an ideal candidate to take stand against as one entrant in this field should appreciate a cut back to one turn.
Abusive Gary (#5) cuts back to six furlongs the distance of his maiden win at the beginning of this year and he has finished off the board in two of his next three starts. However, his most recent start on June 12 suggests he is rounding into form for new trainer Vann Belvoir. He returned from a 169-day layoff on May 29 in a Starter Optional Claiming where he was not eligible to be claimed and finished fifth where there was little positional change among the first three finishers as they ran 1st, 3rd, and 2nd after the first half-mile in a race that this son of Boisterous was going to need off the long layoff. He dropped to this class level on June 12 and he ran very well in defeat earning the field’s second highest last 64 Beyer Speed Figure and earning the field’s highest last race 92 TimeformUS Speed Figure. In that race, he found himself pressing a very fast pace between Go for a Ride and longshot King Parker as the fractions he pressed earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures and above average Moss Pace Figures (+14, +10). He was able to finally shake free of the leader Go for a Ride in deep stretch but the fast pace took its toll on the horses near the early lead as the first two finishers rallied from sixth and fifth. His TimeformUS Speed Figure is upgraded because he ran very well in defeat attending those fast fractions and now cuts back to one turn for trainer Vann Belvoir who has won with 3 of his last 10 starters (30%) making their first start off the claim here at Los Alamitos. The dark bay or brown gelding should have plenty of “bottom” cutting back from consecutive routes into this six furlong sprint with new rider Edwin Maldando in the irons as the second choice on the morning line.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (5) ABUSIVE GARY at 7-2 or better.
Daily Double: 5 over 2.
Pick 3: 5 with 2 with 3.
Race 8: (2) ARTISTIC DIVA
The morning line favorite Bellafina (#1) will be the post time favorite as she defeated two of the entrants in this field and she is the field’s only Graded Stakes winner in the field. In her most recent start, Grade 3 Desert Stormer Stakes, she encountered ideal conditions as she tracked a speed duel in third for the first half mile, swept by the battling leaders into the stretch, and won by a length over Hang A Star who rallied from next to last to finish second. Bellafina earned the field’s highest last race 92 Beyer Speed Figure and 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Today’s scenario in the Great Lady M is different as Fighting Mad dueled through crazy fast fractions in that race to setup for the first two finishers and today TimeformUS pace projector predicts this race will favor horses on or near the front end and the top choice has been affected by pace scenarios in her last two starts and will benefit from less speed in this field.
In her last two starts, Artistic Diva (#2) has found herself dueling for the early lead and weakened to finish fifth in each start. Those efforts were the result of encountering very fast fractions that benefited race shapes that favored off the pace runners. After breaking her maiden as a two-year old, she was plagued by physical issues making only two starts in two years. The daughter of Munnings returned from a 169-day layoff on February 29 at Oaklawn Park in the Spring Fever Stakes where she broke slow leaving the gate last, rushed up into a very fast first quarter that earned red coded TimeformUS and above average Moss Pace Figure (+9) dueling with the very fast Break Even and Mt. Brave. Those three continued to battle for the lead to the top of the stretch and tired in a race that fell apart for the off the pace runners with the first three finishers rallied from 4th, 5th, and 6th after the first quarter of a mile. She returned to her home base of Santa Anita and ran in the Desert Stormer Stakes where she got involved in another fast pace speed duel to set up for the favored late rally of Bellafina. In that race, she battled outside of the pacesetter Fighting Mad as those two set very fast fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (+9, +4) for the first half-mile. She hung in very well to mid-stretch before giving way to finish fifth earning the field's best last race 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The form of this fast pace was flattered when the leader Fighting Mad stretched out to two turns in the Grade 2 Santa Maria and won gate to wire earning a career best 102 Beyer Speed Figure and 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. This will be the second time in her career she is able to make two consecutive starts without a layoff and she has kept her speed intact with two of her last workouts being best of the morning. After encountering Mt. Brave, Break Even, and Fighting Mad in her last two starts, Artistic Diva does not find a rival with their quality of early speed and she figures to control the pace from the start as TimeformUS pace projector predicts. Jockey Victor Espinoza remains in the irons and getting five pounds from Bellafina (124 vs 119) and her pace advantage in this field makes Artistic Diva my BEST BET on the card.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (2) ARTISTIC DIVA
Daily Double: 2 with 3.
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