Race 3: LAMBEAU (#6, 3-1)
The morning line favorite Dark Vader comes into this race with the best last race 95 Beyer and 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure with his third-place finish in the G2 Triple Bend Handicap behind multiple Grade 1 winner McKenzie. That was his first start in 338-days and he is eligible to improve but this five-year old has two issues that can compromise his chances on the drop in class. First is the likely early pace of this race as TimeformUS pace projector predicts this race will unfold at a tepid pace and this mid-pack stalker is dependent on the early speed coming back to him and second he has yet to show the winning spirit with six combined seconds or thirds from twelve starts. The lack of early speed in this race really helps LAMBEAU to dictate his own terms on the front end for the Zenyatta connections of Jerry Moss, trainer John Shirreffs, and jockey Mike Smith. He is at home at this one mile distance with a record of 3/2-0-1 and exits a fast pace gate to wire score at this trip sixty-nine days ago at Santa Anita. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, the son of First Sarmurai “avoided pressure to open up around the first turn and onto the backstretch, Smith allowed him to take a breather around the far turn, turned back a challenge from the runner-up leaving that bend to deep stretch, kicked away again to the wire,” earning the third-highest last race 92 Beyer and second-highest last race 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field. The dark bay or brown colt set a very fast early pace as he earned off the chart Moss Pace Figures (+16, +7) and he owns the best TimeformUS early pace rating in this field making him the clear pacesetter in this event. The form of his allowance victory was validated when second-and-fourth place finishers returned to run second-and-first at the same class level in their next start earning improved Beyer Speed Figures of 93 and 94 respectively and the seventh-place finisher Justin’s Quest duplicated his 80 Beyer Speed Figure when he dropped to N2L claiming event and won by a half-length in his next start. The brief hiatus of sixty-nine days is strong strength for the John Shiirreffs barn as he has won at 33% (18/6-4-3) in the past five years with his dirt routers returning off a sixty to eighty day layoff. With Mike Smith aggressive front running tactics, LAMBEAU should make the early lead into the first turn and down the backstretch and prove a tough rival to run down as the pacesetter and our BEST BET on today’s card.
Wagering Strategy:
Main Exacta part-wheel: 6-3. No reverse.
Smaller Exacta part-wheel: 6-7. No reverse.
Daily Double part-wheel: #6 Lambeau with #6 Secret Keeper
Pick 3 part-wheel: #6 Lambeau with #6 Secret Keeper with #8 Never Be Enough, #1 Unicorn, and #3 Woodfin.
Race 4: SECRET KEEPER (#6, 9-2)
The majority of the betting public will either concede this race to the Bob Baffert uncoupled entry mates Meredith and flashy maiden winner Provocation who will go off favored over her stablemate. My issue with both horses is they each broke their maiden around one turn and did so under ideal circumstances where they were going to deliver winning performances that earned them “ridden out” chart comment. Meredith broke her maiden on April 19 over a sloppy main track at Oaklawn Park where she pressed the pace in the clear, took over from overmatched leaders, and geared down earning career best 91 Beyer and 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The issue with that win was she pressed a very slow early pace according to Moss Pace Figures (-16, -4) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures versus a sub-par field as the nine-horses that have run back it has produced only one winner, Ocean Breeze, who earned improved 80 Beyer Speed Figure and the rest of the field are combined produced three third-place finishers and five that finished off the board. Provocation broke her maiden on closing day of Santa Anita where it was a match race between her and stable mate Himiko as those two finished eleven and a half lengths in front of the rest of the field with Provocation able to dictate terms on the front end and won by length and three-quarters “handily.” The issue with that win is the slow pace she dictated as she earned below average Moss Pace Figures (-14, -5) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. I will play against both at short prices and go for another maiden winner in SECRET KEEPER. Another daughter of Into Mischief, she was ignored in her career debut going off at 10-1 on May 25 in a race where the Bob Baffert trained first time starter, Fierce for Sul, was sent off at 3-5 and this Cliff Sise Jr. trainee proved she was ready for the challenge running down that rival to score the upset. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, “she ran off the rail 4 lengths down, working a bit to keep her margin even in the turn, coming into the lane wide, maintaining her effort, driving by in the final 1/16th to win going away.” Despite only earning a 77 Beyer Speed Figure, her 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure is on par with the two favorites in this field. She will make her first start off a sixty-one day layoff and she trained very well over the Del Mar surface posting three works locally including five furlong move in 59 ⅘ on July 11 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “sharp looking spin looping around a barnmate and a 4f working M McCarthy trainee going clear in a big 36.4, 59.3 (22.4 LQ). Loads to like here.” She has speed to lead but if Meredith and Provocation elect to go as TimeformUS pace projector predicts then jockey Abel Cedillo can place SECRET KEEPER in third just off those two leaders in the garden spot and pounce. At a price that will be much higher and credentials to win, this home bred filly is the clear choice to upset the top two finishers and can spice up prices in multi-race bets with a win in this first condition Allowance event.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (6) SECRET KEEPER at 7-2 or better.
Daily Double part-wheel: #6 Secret Keeper with #8 Never Be Enough, #1 Unicorn, and #3 Woodfin.
Race 5: NEVER BE ENOUGH (#8, 9-2)
The morning line favorite Pretty Point drops from Possibly Perfect Stakes where she finished third behind three time stakes winner Dogtag and finished in front of Streak of Luck who returned to win $75,000 stakes at Canterbury Downs in her next start. The belief in the betting public is the extra eighth of a mile of this 1-⅜ distance will benefit her closing kick but she is a filly that is another that lacks winning spirit as she has combined to finish second or third five times from twelve starts. Although the TimeformUS pace projector does not predict a slow pace, there is a lack of confirmed early pace in this field and with her lack of winning punch in the stretch and lack of speed in this field, Pretty Point is a bet against her in this field. The distance will pose no problem for NEVER BE ENOUGH who successfully won going two miles over testing soft ground on the hurdles back in August 2019. She also proved adept at flat racing winning twice at the distance of mile and seventy yards on firm ground. The daughter of Sir Percy made her first start off a 118-day layoff on May 17 for a claiming price of $40,000 and she ran a respectable third beaten three lengths behind the favored gate to wire winner True to Herself. In that race, she sat off the favored winner in the two path early as the winner was allowed to dictate a very slow early pace earning below average Moss Pace Figures (-17, -8) and earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. The Manuel Badilla trainee made her run at the leader at the top of the stretch but the layoff and the winner being fresh after setting a slow pace proved too much as she tired in the final furlong to be third with her uncoupled stablemate Qafilah rallied to finish second. That race served as perfect prep as she came back twenty-seven days later and won with a perfect trip. In that race she saved ground for the majority of the race sitting in fourth behind three-horse speed duel early, came off the rail and split rivals in the stretch and won going away defeating next out winner Northwest Factor in the process. Never Be Enough earned a career best 85 Beyer Speed Figure and that figure is validated by the run backs in that field. Northwest Factor earned a 77 Beyer Speed Figure (six point improvement), Reginella earned a 75 Beyer Speed Figure in her next start (four point improvement), and Lasting Light earned a 72 Beyer Speed Figure (eighteen point improvement) finishing second in N2X in her next start. She ships to Del Mar for the first time at a distance that will pose no issue and surface she handled equally well in England. She has come back with two works over the Del Mar main track that National Turf’s Andy Harrington raved giving both a B+ but her 1:00 ⅗ spin on July 11 stood out as he commented she was “full of run in this spin going faster than given while striding out in 34.3, 59.0. Going great these days.” Jockey Evan Roman rides her for the first time and in a field filled with midpack or closers, she is the projected pacesetter in this field according to TimeformUS pace projector and she should dictate terms on the front end and should be set for another winning effort in her third start off the layoff.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (8) NEVER BE ENOUGH at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #1 Unicorn, #3 Woodfin. Small reverse.
Race 7: TILTED TOWERS (#8, 8-1)
This wide open maiden sprint on the turf can go many ways but one note I had on my DRF Formulator past performances to play against horses running back from the maiden turf sprint on June 14 won by long shot Tripoli as that race was visually unimpressive with the first seven finishers separated by three and a half lengths and visual aspect was matched by the speed figure as it earned subpar 72 Beyer Speed Figure and second choice on the morning line, Absolute Unit, exits that race and that was his third runner-up finish from seven starts and is developing a case of being a bridesmaid. The field’s most likely pacesetter belongs to my top preference TILTED TOWERS who will make her second career start off a 420-day layoff where he flashed speed and weakened to defeat one rival in a seven-horse field in his only start. He is by Atreides who won four of five starts in his brief career including his first three by a combined twenty-five and three-quarter lengths with Beyer Speed Figures of 105, 102, and 105. His dam Rich Love won only once in six starts but that one win was her second career start where she won sprinting on the turf. He got support in his first start going off as the 6-1 third choice where she was step slow from the start, rushed up to contest a very fast first quarter of a mile with the favored winner Comical Ghost, continued to duel with that rival around the far turn and tried to hang tough with that rival to the top of the stretch before finally giving way to lose by twelve and a half lengths in a race where the winner earned 88 Beyer Speed Figure. The validity of that speed figure was confirmed when the winner returned to repeat her 88 Beyer Speed Figure winning Allowance N1X, third-place finisher Oakland Mills returned to break his maiden with a 82 Beyer Speed Figure (eight point improvement) and the fourth-place finisher earned a 71 Beyer Speed Figure (five point improvement) in his next start. Despite the long layoff, TILTED TOWERS has returned with a series of strong drills at Los Alamitos capped off by 59 second move from the gate on July 18 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “strong from the gate with Foster Boi going better than mate in 59. Big series for return.” He earned above average Moss Pace Figure for the first quarter of a mile (+4) and red coded TimeformUS pace figure for that lone race and she is projected to be the field’s pacesetter in this field. In a field where the morning line favorite is trying the turf for the first time and the second choice exits subpar race, TILTED TOWERS is a new face where strong series of B workouts according to National Turf workout report and early speed to make him dangerous on the front end under new rider Abel Cedillo.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (8) TILTED TOWERS at 5-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #5 Mystery Man, #6 Highly Distorted, and #10 Colossal Storm. Small reverse.
Pick 3 part-wheel: #5 Mystery Man, #6 Highly Distorted, #8 Tilted Towers, #10 Colossal Storm with #10 Zimba Warrior with #10 Guitty, #3 Laura’s Light, #9 Warren’s Showtime
Race 8: ZIMBA WARRIOR (#10, 6-1)
The morning line favorite Hidden Promise exits a second-place finish versus older rivals in a $30,000 N2L claiming event beaten a head. However that race visually was not as impressive as the finish position and beaten margin would indicate. The Blame gelding enjoyed a perfect trip stalking in third in the clear as the eventual winner Queen’s Mason pressed a slow early pace that earned below average Moss Pace Figures (-7, -5) and blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. He ranged up alongside the winner at the top of the stretch to poke his head in front past mid-stretch and was out finished towards the wire to lose by a head showing lack of gameness in the stretch. In addition, the form of that race matched my visual impression of that race as it has produced five horses to return and all five horses including the winner returned to finish off the board with four of those runners regressed in their Beyer Speed Figures. The gamble is that It's That Time will flee from post position two and Antitheical will press him from the outside to set up for the late kick of ZIMBA WARRIOR who drops into a claiming only event for the first time. I will draw a line through his most recent debacle where he trailed throughout in the one mile Alcatraz Stakes on the turf behind the winner Kanderel who returned to run second behind the favorite Hit It A Bomb in the opening day Oceanside Stakes. The Khozan colt sprinted in his two previous starts and each start would be good enough to win this event. The last time he sprinted on the main track was on May 25 at Santa Anita where he rallied from last in a five horse field to be second behind Ragtime Blue who was able to enjoy an uncontested lead through moderate early fractions according to Moss Pace Figures (-3, -3). Although the race only produced one next out winner in Mo Hawk, the run backs of the entrants in this field prove the race was better than the 79 Beyer Speed Figure it earned. The winner earned a 83 Beyer Speed Figure (four point improvement) finishing second in Laz Berrera Stakes behind sprint specialist Colliusion Illusion and the third thru fifth place finishers improved their Beyer Speed Figures by ten, eight, and eighteen points respectively in their next start. Before that runner-up performance, this Keith Desormeaux trainee ran second behind the best of speed winner Jive Talkin in Allowance N1X on the tapeta at Golden Gate where he rallied for second against a strong speed bias. This is a significant drop in class as the previous time he ran for a claiming tag on May 25 that race was an Allowance event with Optional Claiming price of $80,000 and this race is restricted to claiming only. Jockey Kent Desormeaux knows this colt having ridden him in four of ten starts and this chesnut has back class having finished third behind subsequent UAE 2000 Guineas winner Fore Left as a two-year old and was third behind eventual Grade 1 Haskell winner Authentic in the Grade 3 Sham at the beginning of the year.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (10) ZIMBA WARRIOR at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #2 It’s That Time and #7 Antitheical. No reverse.
Small Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #3 Hidden Promise. No reverse.
Daily Double part-wheel: #10 Zimba Warrior with #10 Guitty, #3 Laura’s Light, #9 Warren’s Showtime
Race 9: GUITTY (#10, 20-1)
I do not have knocks on the two morning line favorites Laura’s Light and Warren’s Showtime except for the price they are expected to be at post time. Outside of the price aspect there is one entrant in this field that ran behind those two rivals that was compromised by consecutive bad trips that with a clean trip she deserves a chance to turn the tables at what should be a giant price. GUITTY flashed ability in her first two starts here at Del Mar over this same one-mile trip before she went off form at the end of last year. She returned from a sixty-nine day layoff in the China Doll Stakes on March 7 and finished sixth in a bunched field that saw the first ten separated by five lengths but GUITTY did not have the best of trips. She broke from post twelve in a thirteen horse field and found herself three wide into and around the first turn and raced that wide on the backstretch. The Leonard Powell trainee found herself in traffic issues on the far turn running three wide and had her momentum briefly stalled behind a wall of rivals entering the stretch, angled five wide at the top of the stretch, split rivals, and finished well to lose by less than three-lengths. The extent of her bad trip is reflected in Trakus as she covered 35 feet more than the winner Warren’s Showtime. She stretched out an additional furlong in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes on May 30 and did not get the best of rides by jockey Brice Blanc. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she was “forced in at the break and took up linking up with the course proper, traveled keenly at the rear of the field, taken three-wide by her pilot approaching the half-mile pole, circled the field into the far turn, kept coming three-wide in the far turn, carried five-wide into the lane, bid to midstretch, in tight and steadied, flipped onto her wrong lead, plodded to the wire.” After consecutive bad trips, she switches to new rider Juan Hernandez who was aboard the Powell trained Proud Pedro (July 24, 2020, $21) to win Allowance N2X going 1-⅜ miles on the turf yesterday and GUITTY has really blossomed since returning to Del Mar according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington. She has worked twice over the Del Mar turf course both B+ moves with her July 7 work in 49 seconds flat Andy commented “full of run in this solo move rolling home with a strong pull in 25.2, 49.0 (23.3 LQ). Feeling great down here.” With the dedicated front runner in Cheermeister and morning line favorite Laura’s Light not too far behind, the pace should be honest for GUITTY’s late kick. At her morning line and with a clean trip, the gamble is she can turn the tables on her aforementioned rivals to spring the major upset in the San Clemente.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (10) GUITTY at 10-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #10 with #3 Laura’s Light and #9 Warren’s Showtime. Small reverse.
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