Race 8: GOING TO VEGAS (#8, 12-1)
This three-year old filly by Goldencents could prove a timely claim by trainer Richard Baltas. The bay filly has won three of her last four starts at one-mile on the turf and her lone debacle in that series happen on March 22 when she broke from outermost post eleven in an eleven horse field and was parked four wide into and around the first turn, ducked into the two path down the backstretch before finding the rail on the far turn and had no late kick crossing the wire seventh at similar class level as today’s event. She dropped in for a claiming price of $50,000 in her first start off an eighty-two day layoff and took full advantage of a perfect Flavien Prat ride and very fast pace to score as the 4-5 post time favorite. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “raced midpack two-deep by the stands and around the first turn, dropped further off the pace onto the backstretch, gained around the far turn, full of run three-deep into the lane, ran by her rivals with one big swoop to take over passing midstretch, opened up the final furlong.” Her closing kick was flattered by a very fast pace speed duel between Savvy Gal and Lovely Lila as those two dueled through the first half mile that was fast enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figures. She was claimed by today’s trainer Richard Baltas and in the past five-years at Del Mar horses making their first start off the claim in a turf route here at Del Mar has been a profitable move. He has won at 29% clip (14/4-0-4) including his most recent acquisition Super Patriot (August 17, 2019, $9.00-1) who he claimed from a $32,000 N1Y on June 8, 2019 and returned off a seventy-day layoff to win her first start off the claim. Although she rallied from sixth in a eight-horse field in her most recent start, she has shown the ability to lay close to the early lead by her two prior wins before her last and with My Little Runaway the field’s confirmed pacesetter, jockey Jose Validivia Jr can place Going to Vegas close to the early lead at what should be a moderate early pace and get the first jump on her former stablemate California Kook and morning line favorite Red Lark.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (8) GOING TO VEGAS at 8-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #8 with #3 and #4. Small Reverse.
Race 9: P R RADIO STAR (#4, 12-1)
The horse to beat and to catch is the morning line favorite I Am the Danger but he is coming off a 525-day layoff and I prefer a horse with recency and this Warrior’s Reward gelding fits the profile. He is a win machine (8-for-28) who has visited the winner’s circle in three of six starts this year and loves today’s distance of six furlongs with a 7-for-20 record at this trip and is 1-for-8 at other distances. Prior to his last start, the bay gelding scored his eighth victory with a perfect trip four-length victory over $16,000 claiming company that proved to be a “key” race. In that race, he sat three-wide chasing a moderate pace set by the longshot leader Saturday Tryst early, made a three-wide move on the far turn to kick past Saturday Tryst and assumed command at mid-stretch, and won going away by four widening lengths. The 82 Beyer Speed Figure he earned was validated when the fourth-place finisher returned to win at the same level earning an improved 93 Beyer Speed Figure (22 point improvement) and ninth-place finisher returned in a restricted claiming event at Evagaline Downs and won turf sprint earning 81 Beyer Speed Figure (25 point improvement). He doubled jumped in class to $25,000 in his last start where his stalking style was hurt by a moderate early pace set by the gate to wire winner Hard Belle. In that race, he had perfect trip saving ground stalking the pacesetter on the rail and on the far turn, tipped out at mid-stretch and closed well to finish two and three-quarter lengths in front of Boyfriend Material who earned a improved 83 Beyer Speed Figure (9 point improvement). He will make his first start for Phil D’Amato and is eligible for Del Mar’s Ship and Win program. In the past five-years, his trainer has won at 38% clip (8/3-1-1) with dirt sprinters making their first start off the claim and two of them Easter Fever (December 1, 2016, $0.50-1) and W. Giles (July 31, 2015, $3.30-1) won here at Del Mar and this owner-trainer tandem just missed on Friday when Ronamo ran second beaten three-quarters of a length shipping in from Churchill Downs in his first start for this team. Flavien Prat takes over in the irons and if his half-mile spin in 47.1 is any indication on how well P R Radio Star is doing for his new connections then I expect another move forward to spring the upset.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (4) P R RADIO STAR at 6-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #4 with #6. Small Reverse.
Race 10: GOLDEN DOUGHNUT (#6, 15-1)
The six-year old Golden Balls gelding was attempting the impossible on June 20 at Santa Anita. He was returning from a 994-day layoff in a one-mile turf event and was making his first start as a new gelding. It would have been acceptable if he ran around the racetrack and needed this race but the opposite happened as this James Cassidy trainee put in a very good effort in defeat to finish third in the nine-horse field and any improvement from that effort makes this chestnut eligible to spring the upset in the finale. Prior to that effort, he ran respectable with excuses in his first two starts for this barn. In his first race for James Cassidy he managed to split ten horse field after he had trailed fast pace, launched his rally from last on the far turn and into the stretch before steadying off horses heels in deep stretch costing him a better placing as he was actually running well until the incident happened. In his next start, he settled off the pace along the rail in mid-pack and then was prematurely moved to grab the lead on the far turn through a second quarter in 23.89 and third quarter in 22.93 which explains why he tired badly in the stretch but managed to split a twelve horse field in sixth. He was dismissed as the longest shot on the tote board at 53-1 in his last start and he outran those odds to finish third. He traveled in a comfortable spot on the rail in mid-field behind a very fast early (red coded pace figures) pressed by the winner Shadow Spinx, moved into contention on the far turn, tipped out to have dead aim at the winner at the top of the stretch, stayed on through the stretch while no match for the winner, and lost second Boogalute who rallied from sixth. He earned a respectable 83 and 107 Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure respectively and should move up with that race under his belt. He is reeled back in 22-days and drops into his restricted California-bred company for the first time and Humberto Figueroa who rode him last time returns in the irons. He is not the most probable winner but based on his efforts vs. open company and his return race off the long layoff, Golden Doughnut has every right to compete at this class level as there are no standouts in the Del Mar finale.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (6) GOLDEN DOUGNUT at 8-1 or better.
Main Exacta part-wheel: #6 with #11 and #13. Small Reverse.
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