Race 3: NORTH COUNTY GUY (#6, 5-2)
The gray gelding by The Pamplemousse returns to Del Mar and stretches out to the distance of 1-⅜ where he accomplished his previous victory over these identical conditions on November 24, 2019. The Richard Baltas trainee lost his next two starts but a closer examination of each start reveals he ran better than the fifth and second place finish would indicate and he looks primed to bounce back. He ran fifth beaten five and half lengths behind the last to first winner Desert Stone in the Grade 2 San Gabriel Stakes on January 4 where he had a terrible trip from start to finish. He was bumped hard by a rival at the start and raced three wide into and around the first turn and continued racing three wide down the backstretch. The gelding was under a drive on the far turn racing three to four wide and was floated five to six wide at the top of the stretch and offered no rally in a race that I will dismiss because of the tough trip he endured. He returned to his proper Allowance N2X class level on February 29, 2020 and he was no match for the last to first winner Originnaire. In that race, North County Guy had the perfect trip saving ground in fourth into and around the first turn and raced in the two path down the backstretch behind a three-horse speed duel through very fast fractions that earned red coded TimeformUS pace figures through the first six furlongs. He made a move into the teeth of that fast pace to take over the lead into the top of the stretch but was blown away by the last to first winner Originnaire who returned to finish third beaten a half-length but was promoted to second via disqualification in the Grade 2 Charles Whittingham duplicating his 100 Beyer Speed Figure. North County Guy will make his first time off 146-day layoff but trainer Richard Baltas is proficient with turf starters returning off a long layoff. His two wins this meet, Bob and Jackie (July 11, 2020, $8.20-1) and Aqua Seaform Shame (July 10, 2020, $1.40-1), returned off a 196 and 238-day layoff respectively to emerge victorious. He has returned with nine consecutive workouts including his last two being best of the morning moves at San Luis Rey Downs and today’s pace scenario will favor his running style. TimeformUS pace projector suggest no speed in this event and with his ability to lead as he did in his previous win over this layout last November or sit off the pace and pounce like last time makes North County Guy dangerous on or near the front end to get the jump on likely morning line favorite Border Town.
Wagering Strategy:
Main Daily Double: #6 with #5 Big Sweep
Main Pick 3: #6 with #5 Big Sweep with #7 Gypsy Blu, #9 Bulletproof One
Race 4: BIG SWEEP (#5, 9-5)
The daughter of Mr. Big has been well backed in her three starts being sent off as the favorite and suffered her first career defeat last time Melair Stakes where she finished badly beaten third beaten 4-¼ lengths behind Warren’s Showtime who rallied from second to last to emerge victorious. The Mark Glatt trainee is undefeated in two starts around one turn including her debut where she showed early speed from her rail post position to dispute the lead through very slow early fractions that earned blue coded TimeformUS pace figures shook free of her early pace rivals to kick clear into the stretch and won going away by two and quarter widening lengths. She returned from a sixty-three day layoff facing males in the Echo Eddie Stakes and showed she is adaptable running from off the pace to be undefeated in her first two starts. She raced towards the rear of the field as Stir the Pot and Bettor Trip Nick dueled through a contested opening quarter of 21.56 seconds. She started to commence her run around the far turn, loomed four wide into the stretch and rallied to wear down Rookie Mistake to win by head earning an 86 Beyer Speed Figure that was four points faster than the fillies division won by Smiling Shirlee two races later. She met that aforementioned rival in the Melair Stakes on June 21 her first start behind six furlongs and she found the distance too long tiring to finish third. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “had the dirt break out from under her left hind foot, making her break a step slow, ending up settling on the leader’s flank, fighting between foes in the far turn, scuffling home as the top two ran away from her.” She turns back to seven furlongs off this route debacle and in the past year trainer Mark Glatt has been deadly with that move. He has won at 33% (15/5-2-1) with turn backs on the main track in the past year and next to the cut back, Big Sweep finds a field not loaded with a plethora of early speed. TimeformUS pace projector predicts this race will favor horses on or near the front end with Loud Loud Music the only other entrant with early speed. I expect jockey Flavien Prat to duplicate his tactics of using her early speed to be on the front end and attempt for Warren’s Showtime or Smiling Shirlee to try to catch this filly in the stretch as a standout.
Wagering Strategy:
Main Daily Double: #5 Big Sweep with #7 Gypsy Blu, #9 Bulletproof One
Race 5: BULLETPROOF ONE (#9, 9-2)
The California-bred daughter of Idiot Proof is a one dimensional front runner who has only one way of going, go straight to the front and come catch me if you can. She used those tactics to win two straight over the Tapeta surface at Golden Gate including her last victory on March 27 where she set the early pace from post two to clear the field around the far turn and opened up a five length lead at mid-stretch and won by comfortable three-lengths ridden out as the 1-5 post time favorite. The noteworthy part of that win was the early pace she established as she earned off the chart Moss Pace Figures for the first half mile of that 5-½ furlong event (+15,+5). The Peter Miller trainee stepped up in class to face stakes company in the Evening Jewel on May 16 where she tried to finish sixth in a race where another very fast pace and speed duel compromised her chances. According to Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she “worked to the lead, set blazing fractions in tandem down the backstretch (with Dim Lights), put away her pace foe in the far turn (finished 8th beaten 16 lengths), led to the head of the lane, swarmed from all sides, gave way.” The stalkers and closers dominated this sprint event as the first five finishers rallied from 7th, 3rd, 9th, 6th, and 5th. She earned off the chart first quarter Moss Pace Figure (+9) and she makes her first start off a sixty-nine day layoff for trainer Peter Miller who has won at 25% the past year (8/2-2-0) with turf sprinters returning off a layoff between fifty to ninety-days. She meets a pace rival in Tijori but that rival that has not seen the speed that Bulletproof One has displayed and furthermore this bay filly gets a break in the weights. Being a three-year old filly she is at 121 lbs and being that she is non-winners since April 24 she gets another four pounds as she comes into this race at 117 lbs as she gets six pounds from her stablemate Querelle and four pounds from the others in this field. She is reunited with Ricky Gonzalez who was aboard this fillies two wins at Golden Gate and in the past five years the team of Gonzalez and Peter Miller have won at 31% (16/5-5-2) with sprint starters. She leads the field in TimeformUS early pace rating and is the leader down the backstretch according to Pace Projector. If she can duplicate her two wins over the Tapeta surface she will loom tough to catch at a hint of a price to end the early Pick Five.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on #9 Bulletproof One at 4-1 or better.
Main Exacta: #9 with #7 Gypsy Blu. Small reverse.
Race 9: MISCHIFFIE (#4, 12-1)
The daughter of Sir Prancelot is a specialist over this Del Mar turf course at today’s five furlong distance. From four starts, she has a win and two seconds with her only debacle occurred when she broke through the gate before start and finished eighth. The last time she raced over this layout happened last November when she ran second behind today’s favorite Steal the Diamonds. In that race, she was out sprinted early racing in the two path and trailed the field early behind speed duel between Steal the Diamonds and Kentan Road, she moved up on the far turn in the two path, angled three wide at the top of the stretch, and closed well to be second behind the gate to wire winner who returned to run second versus males in the Sensational Star Handicap and was third beaten a length in the Grade 2 Monrovia in her last start. She went off form in her next three starts racing at a distance that is too far in the Lady of Shamrock (one-mile) and had the disadvantage of breaking from the rail in her next two starts where she broke slow on February 2 and broke through the gate before the start two starts ago. She was given a break after that debacle and returned from 103-day layoff on June 12 and returned to spring a 16-1 upset to parlay a gate to wire victory under ideal circumstances. According to the Handicapper’s Report Trip Notes, she was “sent to set a pressured pace through very slow splits (blue coded TimeformUS pace figures), came off the rail and kicked away in upper stretch, clear deep stretch, and just held to the wire over favored closer Querelle. Although she encountered ideal setup in her last start, this bay filly is best off the pace and that’s where she will find herself today with TimeformUS pace projector predicting a fast pace engaged among morning line favorite Steal the Diamonds, Surrender Now, and the fast Artistic Diva as those fillies have 115 plus TimeformUS early pace ratings to ensure that fast pace and you can add Tomlin to the mix of contested speed duel. Mischiffie has potent late kick as the field’s lone closer in this field and the best TimeformUS closing pace rating in this field. Ruben Fuentas who rode her last time is back in the irons and she was visually impressive outworking Distant Vista on July 12 and July 19 here at Del Mar. She will be a juicy price in her return to stakes company but she adores this layout and gets race setup to flatter her closing kick.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on #4 MISCHIFFIE at 8/1 or higher.
Main Exacta part wheel: #4 with #6 Jo Jo Air, #7 Storming Lady.
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