Total for Meet: -$50 After Coil Me Home failed to win the 2nd leg of our Daily Double wager on opening day. Friday's first post is at 4pm and what better way to kick off the weekend than great 8 race card at Del Mar. Let's get to work.
Race 5: (8) PAKHET
The daughter of Cairo Prince has always been well regarded finishing second in her career debut sprinting on the turf and then successfully stretched out in her second career start to break her maiden handily with a perfect stalking trip. She stepped up in class to face winners for the first time in the Grade 2 Jessamine at Keeneland on October 10, 2018 and she ran a respectable second behind the leading North American three-year old top filly Concrete Rose. In that race, the former Todd Pletcher trainee raced off the rail in the two path around the first turn and down the backstretch stalking the loose leader in midpack. She angled three paths off the rail on the far turn and was hard urged to keep her position as the winner Concrete Rose saved ground. As the field reached the top of the stretch, she was parked six wide into the stretch and rallied to grab second while no match the perfect trip winner. This runner-up performance encouraged her connections to enter her in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf where she was parked four to five wide into the first turn and continued to race that wide down the backstretch. She was hard urged while parked wide around the far turn and gave way to the wire finishing eleventh beaten 15-½ lengths. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf turned out to be one of the most productive juvenile events of 2018 as fifth, sixth, and eighth-place finishers returned to win such events as the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes (The Mackem Bullet) and Grade 3 Florida Oaks, Grade 2 Edgewood, and Grade 1 Belmont Oaks (Concrete Rose). She will make her first start as a three-year old off a 259-day layoff but she showed she ran very well fresh when she was beaten a nose in her career debut and comes into this race with six works over the Santa Anita main track including visually impressive half mile spin in 49 ⅖ on June 23 (Pakhet - June 23 Workout) where she outworked the older Arch Anthem. Ruben Fuentas who is the regular rider for Mike McCarthy trained Ohio and has worked PAKHET in the morning takes over in the irons and she should get a cozy stalking trip tracking the expected leader ANONYMOUSLY and RAYANA early and pounce on those two entering the stretch as victory in this race is a stepping stone for the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks on Pacific Classic weekend in August.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (8) PAKHET
Race 6: (8) OAKLAND MILLS
The Jeff Mullins trainee was sent off as the third longest shot on the tote board in his career debut on June 1 and his price reflection of win early breeding and trainer’s lack of success with first time starters. He was the highest priced of six two-year olds in training sales by the sire With Distinction at the OBS April 2018 at $55,000 which is higher than the sire’s average of $27,700 and that sales price is seven times his stud’s breeding fee of $7,500. The dam Natural Glow has produced five winners from six starters and those five winners have combined to win twenty-six races and majority of them in sprint races. The gelding had steady series of workouts for his debut but nothing flashy that caught the private clockers in the morning and trainer Jeff Mullins does not do well with first time starters with a below average 46 TimeformUS trainer rating in that category. Despite those negatives, OAKLAND MILLS ran very well in defeat catching the impressive Bob Baffert debut winner Comical Ghost who is son of Ghostzapper out of the multiple Grade 1 winner and placed Hystericalady. In that race, OAKLAND MILLS flashed good early speed to press the pace three wide in a contested four-horse battle for the early lead through a very fast opening quarter that was coded red by TimeformUS. He eased off this duel to stalk the three leaders into and around the far turn, re-bid to move into second into the stretch, and flattened out on his run switching to his left lead towards the wire and losing second to the opportunistic closer Beleth in a race where the winner Comical Ghost earned above average 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. OAKLAND MILLS lost nothing in defeat considering how fast the winner ran and he returned with five workouts including a visually impressive team drill in 1:01 ⅘ on June 23 where he caught unexpected company in what returned to be a three team drill (Oakland Mills - June 23 work) that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Fuentes up; nifty looking drill looking best inside barn mate K P Slickem and the 4f working Save Ground (Cecil) finishing with something left in 36.1, 101.4. Nice over the track.” With this debut race under his belt and drawn outside of the rest of the field, I expected OAKLAND MILLS to flash his customary early speed to take it to this field from the start under regular rider Ruben Fuentas and spring the minor upset as he catches a field that does not have a Comical Ghost.
Wagering Strategy: My $50 Del Mar starts in this race and it is Daily Double between my two Best Bets on the card.
$50 Daily Double: 8 with 6 = $50
Race 7: (6) STREAK OF LUCK
A California-bred daughter of Old Fashioned is situated at one-mile but this distance of a mile and a sixteenth is ideal fit for this gray filly whose previous two starts at one-mile suggest that additional sixteenth of a mile should pose no problem. After wide trip defeat in overnight stakes on December 26, she parlayed a perfect stalking trip en route to a 1-¼ length victory on January 25. She broke well and was taken to the two path stalking a moderate early pace set by Travieza in midpack early. She moved up two wide on the far turn, taken four wide into the clear in the stretch, and kicked past the tired leader to a clear victory defeating a sub-par field that produced a pair of second-place finishes and three off the board finishes in a race that early pace collapsed as the horses that ran 1st, 2nd, and 3rd early weaken to finish 6th, 5th, and 4th. The Matthew Chew trainee moved up in class in the Grade 2 Buena Vista on February 23 and was second best behind the streaking Santa Anita horse for course Vasilika. In that race, she was taken far back behind a blazing early pace that featured red coded TimeformUS pace figures set by the uncontested leader Fahan Mura. She remained far back into the stretch, angled four wide into the stretch, and rallied to be second behind the favored winner in a productive race. Vasilika went on to win the Grade 2 Royal Heroine and the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes in her next two starts and sixth place finisher Elysea’s World came back to win the Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes. She failed to hit the board in her next two starts but those efforts were the result of running at a wrong distance and class level. She wanted no part of the mile and a quarter Grade 3 Santa Ana Stakes on March 30 where she split the seven horse field fourth and last time out found herself in a paceless field where she pressed the pace outside of the leader Ahimsa, stayed on gamely to mid-stretch, and weaken to finish sixth beaten three-lengths. She now drops in class to this overnight stakes that is restricted to horses non-winners of a sweepstakes of over $50,000 at one mile or more since September 1, 2018. She returns to Jimmy Durante turf course where she has recorded two victories and one second from three starts over this turf course and jockey Mike Smith remains in the irons and was in the saddle for her previous three victories. She showed her fondness for this turf course with an easy half-mile spin on July 15 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “clearly prefers the turf as this one was gliding over the grass in 26.1, 50.4. On her toes off the break.” A realistic pace for her late kick should exist with IPPODAMIA’S GIRL going to the front with AHISMA and ACHRIA close to the early lead. If she can duplicate her runner-up performance in the Grade 2 Buena Vista she can score her first stakes victory in the first Friday of Del Mar meet.
Wagering Strategy:
Main Exacta: 6-1, 6-7. Small reverse.
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