BEST BET for September 2, 2019: ULTIMATE BANGO (Race 6, 8-1)
MULTI-RACE PLAYS
Daily Double Race 9:
5 with 2,8 = 1 x 2 x $20 = $40
6 with 2,8 = 1 x 2 x $10 = $20
Total Wager: $60
Race 4: (6) ULTIMATE BANGO
I will be including the two morning line favorites underneath in my wagers but I am leaving out the third choice on the morning line RONALD R who returned from a 434-day layoff on July 20 and posted 13-1 upset on a day when his trainer Ron Ellis had two winners both at double digit prices. The son of Nathaniel received an excellent ride from jockey Drayden Van Dyke and perfect pace setup. In that race, he trailed saving ground through the first half mile behind the uncontested leader Snazzy Dresser as he opened up a three-length lead after a half mile in 45.94 fast enough to earn red coded TimeformUS pace figure. He saved ground into the far turn, angled outside for the stretch drive, and rallied to wear down the battling leaders Factorial, Battle of Memphis, and tiring Snazzy Dresser to win by one-length to earn career best 93 Beyer Speed Figure and 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The form of that race was confirmed when third and fifth-place finishers came back to win. He returns in his second start of the meet and will have to stretch out additional eighth of a mile and there is not a plethora of early speed in this field with Dr. Troutman in this field and RONALD R has not looked as good in the morning reported by National Turf’s Andy Harrington. I will look for a horse that can be forwardly placed and exits a better than looked effort in one of the fastest early paces on the turf this meet.
With Dr. Troutman the field’s confirmed pacesetter, I expect ULTIMATE BANGO to be the horse to get the first run on the stalkers and closers and he will be positioned second early and will wait to pounce. The California-bred son of Uh Oh Bango has won twice at one-mile on the turf and his most recent victory was a perfect trip victory on June 8 at Santa Anita. In that race, the Blake Heap trainee navigated to the rail to the first turn and saved ground as the uncontested leader Factorial set blazing fractions that saw the half mile and six furlongs fractions coded red by TimeformUS. He continued to save ground on the far turn, angled outside for a clear run into the stretch, and kicked clear to win by 2-½ lengths to earn a career best 89 Beyer Speed Figure and then career best 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was eligible for the Allowance N2X at this same distance on opening day but his connections decided to go for the larger purse and run against California breds in the California Dreamin Stakes on July 26 at 1-1/16 and he ran a deceptive good race in defeat splitting the field after being forced to chase one of the fastest early paces this meet on the turf. In that race, he was parked three to four wide leaving the chute and was three wide into the first turn before stalking the pacesetter What A View in the two-path between rivals on the backstretch and he chased a torrid pace as the half mile and six furlongs fractions coded red by TimeformUS. He began to be in drive midway on the far turn as What A View kicked clear from the rest of the field but ULTIMATE BANGO never quit in the stretch running evenly towards the wire to miss fourth by a half-length to the opportunistic closer Hard Boot. He earned a career best 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure in defeat and the form of that fast early pace was flattered when Acclimate who chased that pace returned on Pacific Classic day to win the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap earning 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure. ULTIMATE BANGO will now stretch out additional sixteenth of a mile but finds no rivals with the type of early speed that What A View has and should either be stalking Dr. Troutman or sitting off a more relaxed early pace scenario. He has come back with three workouts capped off by five furlong move in 1:02 2⁄5 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “Full of run home then galloped big in 37.0, 101.3 oy in 114.1. On edge; better than last.” Ruben Fuentas remains in the irons and he will be grossly overlooked at what should be a juicy price.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (6) ULTIMATE BANGO at 5-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 6-3, 6-5. Small reverse for each.
Race 9: (5) GARTH
The last Grade 1 event of the Del Mar season is the Del Mar Futurity where Bob Baffert will go for fifteenth victory in this race and sends out morning line favorite EIGHT RINGS who comes off 6-¼ length victory in his career debut earning second fastest two-year old 94 Beyer Speed Figure of 2019 and 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The form of that race was flattered when the runner-up Express Train returned to break his maiden with a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. From all points, he looks like a standout but I believe he will suffer his first defeat in this event based on trip and pace. In his debut, he sat absolute perfect pace pressing trip. He was parked three wide in the clear pressing two dueling leaders Shooters Shoot and Phast Pharoah through moderate fractions. He made the winning move with a three wide rush to take over the lead into the stretch and kicked clear. Where he breaks today and the likely pace scenario will compromise his chances. A fast pace is likely with Storm the Court from the inside going for the lead along with Fore Left, Nucky, and recent maiden winner Ginobili making this race have faster than average early fractions. If that scenario happens just as it did in last Saturday’s Del Mar Debutante then this race is primed to set-up for horse coming from off the pace and I was waiting for this colt to show up in this race after his better than looked debut effort where he lost as the overwhelming favorite.
There was a lot to like about GARTH into his career debut on August 10 where he was sent off as the 1-5 post time favorite. Firstly, his pedigree he is by the outstanding sire Into Mischief out of the mare Country Star who won the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet as a two-year old for the late trainer Bobby Frankel. Secondly, this home bred had worked in splendid fashion according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington with three consecutive B+ moves including a team drill with today’s morning line favorite Eight Rings on July 25 where he stated “Big speed with next out winner Eight Rings waiting in 24.4 finishing out with power in 48.0, 100.4. Much to like.” Thirdly, he was trained by Bob Baffert who earlier in the meet sent out Eight Rings to break his maiden in his career debut but also another progeny of Into Mischief, Immediate Impact, broke her maiden in her debut as well. With these factors he was bet as if he could not lose his first start. However, he failed to live up to his advance billing finishing second as the beaten favorite but I look at this race as educational run because he experienced what really happens during a real race in the afternoon. He was a step slow when he bobbled leaving the gate from post position one, he rushed up quickly and settled behind dueling leaders on the backstretch, split rivals on the far turn and loomed outside of the eventual winner Storm the Court to poke a head in front at mid-stretch but the slow start, rush up to get into contention, and move to split rivals on the far turn all caught up to GARTH as he flattened out on his run and he finished 2-¼ lengths in front of the rest of the field in a respectable performance where he can improve in his second career start. He now adds the blinkers and is being placed in a Grade 1 in a similar profile as the Bob Baffert trained Best last Saturday in the Debutante. Moreover, he continues to thrive in the mornings for the Futurity with consecutive B+ according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a six furlong move in 1:13 3⁄5 that he stated “Improving sort was tons the best over Ragtime Blues going out solo in this strong and relaxed move. Getting better.” With Fore Left, Nucky, and recent maiden winner Ginobili vying for the lead through faster than average fractions, I expect GARTH to break cleanly and patiently bide his time behind this leading trio and when it is time to push button jockey Mike Smith can blow by the leaders in the stretch to score the mild upset in the last Grade 1 of the meet.
Wagering Strategies:
WIN bet on (5) GARTH at 7-2 or better.
Main Exacta: 5-6. Small reverse.
Small Exacta: 5-8. No reverse.
Race 10: (8) PAKHET
The final race of the meet brings competitive field of ten three year old fillies and I am playing against KHAIRYA who is the 4-1 second choice on the morning line. The three-year old Twirling Candy filly won only once on the turf and that win was last time on August 1 where he encountered ideal race set up to win by 1-¼ lengths earning career best 76 Beyer Speed Figure and 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That victory was the result of absolute pace meltdown as the three leaders Creative Romance, D’Tatway, and Muthhlia set faster than average early fractions with opening quarter, half-mile and six furlong fractions were coded red by TimeformUS that resulted in those three leaders after a half mile finished fourth, fifth, and eighth and the first three finishers rallied from seventh, sixth, and ninth after the first half mile. There is clear pacesetter in this field in Courteous but I do not feel this race will have the same pace setup as KHAIRYA encountered in that victory and I will throw out this Phil D’Amato trainee from my wagers.
Trainer Mike McCarthy has had Del Mar meet to forget with only one victory from thirty six starters but PAKHET can give his barn that much needed victory on the final race of the meet. The daughter of Cairo Prince raced greenly and erractally in her career debut when she finished second only to be disqualified. She came back to break her maiden in her second start and stepped up in class to face winners for the first time in the Grade 2 Jessamine at Keeneland on October 10, 2018 and she ran a respectable second behind the leading North American three-year old top filly Concrete Rose. In that race, the former Todd Pletcher trainee raced off the rail in the two path around the first turn and down the backstretch stalking the loose leader in midpack. She angled three paths off the rail on the far turn and was hard urged to keep her position as the winner Concrete Rose saved ground. As the field reached the top of the stretch, she was parked six wide into the stretch and rallied to grab second while no match the perfect trip winner. This runner-up performance encouraged her connections to enter her in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf where she was parked four to five wide into the first turn and continued to race that wide down the backstretch. She was hard urged while parked wide around the far turn and gave way to the wire finishing eleventh beaten 15-½ lengths. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf turned out to be one of the most productive juvenile events of 2018 as fifth, sixth, and eighth-place finishers returned to win such events as the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes (The Mackem Bullet) and Grade 3 Florida Oaks, Grade 2 Edgewood, and Grade 1 Belmont Oaks (Concrete Rose). PAKHET made her first start for trainer Mike McCarthy on July 19 where she did not have the smoothest of trip in her first start off a 259 day layoff. In that race, she was able to race in between rivals through the first six furlongs then she caught in traffic approaching the quarter pole as she had to shuffle towards the rear of the field into the stretch, re-rallied and past tired rivals to be seventh. She has come back with four workouts capped off by a B- move on August 25 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Best outside barnmate The Stiff going 36.1, 101.0 appearing willing all the way. Should move forward.” Under new rider Florent Geroux she can good spot tracking what should be crowded front end in mid pack and pounce to close the meet at generous price.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (8) PAKHET at 5-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 8-2. Small reverse.
Small Exacta: 8-9. No reverse.
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