Friday’s Recap: Total -$100 for the meet. We connected with Oakland Mills but Streak of Luck did not have the smoothest of trips and we move on today’s Saturday’s card. The main action is later part of the card and being Saturday I will focus strictly on WIN bets.
Race 6: (9) GYPSY BLU
This California bred daughter of Papa Clem is turf sprinting specialist having won four of five starts sprinting on a firm turf course with only one second and she returns to the Jimmy Durante turf course where she scored her only victory on this layout last year at 30-1. The Mark Glatt trainee won the Irish O’ Brian Stakes down the hillside turf course on March 31 at Santa Anita by only a half-length but she overcame a less than idea race shape to win from off the pace and did so over good field. She was taken back off the pace as the three leaders established slow fractions of 21.98 and 44.15 seconds. She began to inch closer down the hill and across the dirt portion of the layout, angled four wide into the turf course, and rallied to wear down the favorite S.Y. Sky to win by a half-length. This returned to be a productive field as the runner-up returned to win Camilla Urso Stakes and Grade 2 Monrovia Stakes in her next two starts with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 111 and 110 respectively and the fifth place finisher Queen Bee To You returned to run second and win the Fran’s Valentine and Bertrando Stakes with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 107 and 112 respectively. One can draw a line through her fourth place finish in the Fran’s Valentine on May 12 because she was running at one-mile a distance that is beyond her distance limitations where she split the field running fourth. She returned to one turn in an Allowance race on June 14 and she ran second behind today’s rival KENTON ROAD but she was compromised by a lack of early speed as the eventual winner got loose on the lead where Gypsy Blu earned a career best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure a figure two points higher because she rallied against the uncontested gate to wire winner. She has come back with two works including sharp half-mile spin in 48 ⅖ on July 12 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “willing while joined home by Blue Moonrise (Baffert) in 23.2, 48.1. Is going quite well.” The lack of pace she encountered last time will not be found here as KENTON ROAD will find pressure from the speedy PAINTING CORNERS and LADY SUEBEE. Norbertto Arroyo Jr. remains in the irons and should stalk a lively pace in mid-pack and pounce over a layout she adores at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategies:
Race 5 $20 Daily Double: (8) BLUE MOONRISE with (9) GYPSY BLU
$25 WIN on (9) GYPSY BLU at 7-2 or better.
Race 8: (6) OVER EMPHASIZE
A daughter of Overanalyze comes into the San Clemente with only a maiden victory over this distance back on April 12 at Santa Anita she rallied from midpack to win by a nose. Since that victory, she has returned with pair of the in the money performances where her off the pace running style was compromised by a lack of pace or trouble at important parts of the pace and I feel this Mike McCarthy trainee needs pace and better racing luck to score the upset in this Grade 2 event. After her maiden victory, she took on winners for the first time on May 3 where her stalking style was compromised by a lack of early speed as the favored winner was able to get loose on an uncontested lead through slow fractions and she won the battle for second at the wire. She stepped up in class in the Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes and did not have the cleanest of trips in the stretch as the first two finishers Lady Prancelot and Hostess had clear outside rally wide trips. In that race, she saved ground passing the finish line for the first time and saved ground through the first half mile. As the pace began to quicken into and around the far turn, she continued racing on the rail and into the stretch where she attempted to get outside but was in tight Maxim Rate and the leader made the hole not there and Alonso Quinonez had to alter course to the inside in the final sixteenth of a mile and she was clear third. Both her runner-up performance in the paceless Allowance race won by Colonial Creed and her troubled third in the Honeymoon was at 1-⅛ miles and she now cuts back to one-mile the distance of her maiden victory three races back. In addition, she will find early pace for her late kick as TimeformUS anticipates the San Clemente being run at a fast pace with DEVILS DANCE, HARMLESS, and stablemate KALLINKI all vying for the early lead and Over Emphasize should drop over into mid-pack position and produce one late run as she owns the field’s best TimeformUS late pace rating. She has returned with two works including a best of eighteen half mile spin in 48 ⅖ on July 15 where National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B+ stating “Q up; full of beans late rolling late in 24.3, 48.2. Set for utmost.” I expect Over Emphasize to deliver a career best performance on the cut back in distance and with plenty of speed signed on for her late kick at a price.
Wagering Strategy:
$25 WIN bet on (6) OVER EMPHASIZE at 5-1 or better.
Race 10: (5) BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE)
A son of Declaration of War, BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) ships into Del Mar as part of the Ship and Win program and has hit the board only once in his last three starts but a closer inspection of each start reveals that this Irish bred gelding needs a ground saving trip and plenty of early speed to set up for his late kick and he should find that scenario in today’s finale at Del Mar. After breaking his maiden in late February at Gulfstream Park, he returned on Kentucky Derby week on May 2 at Churchill Downs and suffered a wide trip debacle in a productive race where the winner, Voting Control, won by 2-¼ widening lengths making his first start since the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. In that race, he was parked three to four wide around the first turn and continued racing that wide down the backstretch pressing a slow pace. He continued racing wide into and around the far turn and was wisely wrapped up inside the final furlong to finish ahead of one rival to be ninth beaten eight-lengths. This May 2 Allowance event produced Pillar Mountain who won his next two starts and fifth place finisher Clear for Action returned to win his next start. He was reeled back three weeks later and with a different trip he produced a career best performance to run second earning career best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure behind the perfect trip winner Get Western. Instead of being parked wide into the first turn, new jockey Adam Beschizza got BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) over to the rail into the first turn and he was able to save ground behind the long shot loose leader Discovered. He was angled off the hedge into the clear in the stretch and was second best as Get Western got first run but lost nothing in defeat finishing almost two-lengths clear of the rest of the field. In his most recent, he suffered a wide trip throughout racing three wide into and around the first turn, was parked four wide on the backstretch, and made a premature midrace move into the teeth of a fast pace coded red by TimeformUS and ran evenly through the stretch to split the twelve horse in sixth. He will now make his first start at Del Mar for trainer Steve Miyadi who does well with new acquisitions (86 TimeformUS trainer rating) and he should get the trip to deliver his best performance. TimeformUS anticipates a very fast pace with one dimensional front runners Snazzy Dresser, Factorial, and Foray all having raced or pressed red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their most recent starts. If that pace scenario happens, I expect new rider Norbertto Arroyo Jr to take BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) to the inside in the first turn, stalk in midpack a lively pace, and produce one late run at a nice price in the finale.
Wagering Strategy:
$25 WIN on (5) BATTLE OF MEMPHIS (IRE) at 5-1 or better.
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