Race 2: (4) MORSE CODE
The meet’s first turf event should have an honest to fast early pace scenario for those stalking or coming from well off the pace. VIA EGNATIA who lead going gate to wire in his most recent victory will go straight to the front under hustling rider Edwin Maldonado and DR. TROUTMAN has been on the lead at the first call (half mile mark) in his turf route races in four of his last six starts. Those two should engage in a fast pace that TimeformUS pace projector predicts and I want a horse that can get first run on closers such as morning line favorite United and fellow closers Ward N’ Jerry and Starting Bloc.
MORSE CODE won his first start over this Del Mar turf course on the last race of the Pacific Classic day of last year with a perfect stalk and pounce trip versus a suspect field of Allowance N1X rivals that only produced one next out winner and five others that ran second or third in their next start. He returned off a 96-day hiatus on November 22 here at Del Mar going 1-⅜ miles where he saved ground around all three turns, angled out for the drive and failed to muster a serious rally finishing sixth beaten three-lengths. He turned back to one-mile in his first start of this year and finished fast closing fourth beaten three-quarters of a length in a race where the race shape favored horses on or near the front end as the first two finishers, Keep Quiet and Count Alexander ran around the racetrack second and first throughout and this son of Tapit finished in a blanket photo for the minor placings. In his next start on February 17, he raced was parked three-wide racing in mid-pack for the first half mile, raced even wider on the far turn and into the stretch, and was wrapped up to the wire to finish seventh beaten 6-¼ lengths. One can draw a line through his dirt debacle on March 30 as he was off the board in three previous fast main track efforts. The Richard Baltas trainee returned to turf on May 25 in the Gr. 2 Charles Whittingham Stakes and he finished fifth beaten only 1-½ lengths behind his stablemate Marckie’s Water but this was a good effort in defeat considering he abandon his traditional stalk and pounce style to dispute the early pace. In this race, he disputed the pace with pace rival Tiz a Runner through quick fractions for the distance that saw the mile mark coded red by TimeformUS. He put away that pace rival towards mid-stretch and hung in tough to the final sixteenth of a mile before being collared by the closers towards the wire to earn the field’s highest last race 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure and second highest last race 92 Beyer Speed Figure. He makes a realistic drop into this Allowance N2X and has returned with five works over the Santa Anita training track. He drops eight pounds from his previous start with apprentice Jorge Velez in the irons and should revert to his stalking style with his stable mate VIA EGNATIA going for the early lead and if he can build on his effort in the Whittingham Stakes he can spring the minor upset.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (4) MORSE CODE
Race 8: (8) GREGORIAN CHANT (GB)
The opening day feature Oceanside Stakes should feature an honest pace. The sprinter stretching out LEGENDS OF WAR will go for the early lead but based on his previous form this Scat Daddy will be best around one turn and had advantageous pace scenario featuring blue coded TimeformUS pace figures on May 27 and weakened to third. The pace pressure will come from CITY RAGE who broke his maiden in gate to wire fashion on June 22 where he set a quick pace for the first half quarter of a mile and then was able to rate kindly on the front end through the next half mile and sprinted clear to win by 1-¾ lengths. These two horses should establish pace honest enough where a closer that was compromised by a lack of speed in his previous start should appreciate.
GREGORIAN CHANT (GB) has always shown talent in each of his first two starts despite being tardy at the gate. He broke his maiden over the Poly Track at Dundalk in Ireland in his career debut by 1-¼ lengths where the Timeform European Analyst stated “missed the break, in rear, still plenty to do entering straight, came wide, stayed on to lead well inside final 1f, hung left, well on top finish; open to improvement.” The Gregorian colt was privately purchased by Slam Dunk Racing and partners and made his North American debut on May 5 at Santa Anita and was visually impressive overcoming tardy start and very slow pace to win by 2-¼ lengths. In that race, he veered out sharply at the start to be away dead last and trailed early behind a very slow early pace disputed by Contagion and Swap Souffle. He reached into contention into the far turn, swept by the two leaders into the stretch, and kicked clear defeating a sub-par field as three horses behind him returned to finish off the board and one horse returned to finish third. Despite the weak field, the visual impression of the victory made him the 6-5 post time favorite in the Cinema Stakes on June 2 and he finished a lackluster fourth beaten 2-¼ lengths behind the second Neptune’s Storm. However, one can draw a line through this race because of the addition of blinkers and the lack of early speed created a race flow in the Cinema Stakes that favored horses on or near the early lead. He broke a step slow in that race, trailed early through the first half mile as King of Speed, eventual winner Neptune’s Storm, and Parsimony raced on or near early pace that featured blue coded TimeformUS pace figures. Despite the slow pace, GREGORIAN CHANT moved forward three wide on the far turn, had a clear run into the stretch, and ran evenly towards the wire to earn career best 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Phil D’ Amato trainee removes the blinkers with four workouts over the Santa Anita training track including five furlong move on July 8 in 1:03 flat that National Turf’s Andy Harrington commented “Franco up; grand looker breezed with a fellow turfer in this smooth training track move. Upside clearly still here.” Although top rider Flavien Prat elects to ride Jasikan, jockey Giovanni Franco takes over in the irons and he should drop over to get cover behind an honest pace between City of Rage and Legend’s of War and produce one late run at a hint of a price.
Wagering Strategy: My $50 Play of the Day will be a Daily Double using GREGORIAN CHANT and my second preference (3) JASIKAN to my Horse of the Day, Coil Me Home, in the 9th. Below please my Daily Double strategy:
$35 Daily Double: (8) GREGORIAN CHANT with (3) COIL ME HOME
$15 Daily Double: (3) JASIKAN with (3) COIL ME HOME
Total Wager: $50
Race 9: (3) COIL ME HOME
This competitive seven furlong Allowance N1X event should have a spirited early pace with the two entrants with early speed fast enough to have run red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their recent starts. The main pace comes from Midwest shipper, JACK VAN BERG, who has pressed or lead after the first call five of his last five starts and in his most recent start was less than two-lengths behind red coded TimeformUS pace figures. Morning line favorite, KING JACK, was part of the early pace pressing the early pace three wide in the clear and won impressively over Morning Snow who won with an improved 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. Now drawn inside of his main rival, he could get hooked into a pressured pace battle with Jack Van Berg ensuring a fast pace These two entrants should establish a lively pace scenario for a closer who will benefit from this enervating pace.
COIL ME HOME has been known in his ten race career as a bridesmaid with six seconds or thirds and has not seen the Winner’s Circle since December 9, 2018 at Los Alamitos. His two most recent starts indicate that this California-bred son of Coil is rounding into form. He was defeated as the second choice on May 4 at Santa Anita where this Richard Baltas trainee flashed unusual early speed to contest the early pace with the favored Flagstaff and Candy Cornell early. Those three remained locked into a three-horse speed duel all the way past the quarter pole and into the stretch when COIL ME HOME weakened in the final sixteenth to be third earning a career best and competitive 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure and he finished in front of fourth-place finisher, California Street, who came back to win Allowance N1X on June 22 with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He returned 42-days later and faced California-bred company in Thor's Echo Stakes on June 15 at Santa Anita and was a distant second behind the pace pressing winner Desert Law. A closer inspection of this effort reveals he ran a lot better than his 6-¼ length margin of defeat based on the slow pace the winner was able to press the speed favoring nature of the main track that afternoon. He reverted to his usual closing style trailing the field early as the leader Smiling Angelo and eventual winner Desert Law were able to establish a very slow early pace as the first half mile was colored by blue by TimeformUS pace figures. He trailed the field around the turn, angled out into the stretch, and finished very well to be a distant second against the race shape. Not only was his rally compromised by the slow pace but also speed favoring main track as all four dirt sprints were won by horses on the lead or within one length off the lead at the first pace call and COIL ME HOME rallied against race flow and speed bias in dirt sprints. He has bounced back with three workouts including five furlong move in 1:02 ⅕ on July 6 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington stated “Responded willingly with Prat aboard reaching in blinkers for Baltas in 25.1, 102.0. Looks good from here.” He is reunited with Flavien Prat who was aboard his previous win. More importantly, he will find early speed from the likes of JACK VAN BERG, and KING JACK to ensure his late kick will be flattered from the expected race flow. He should be a price considering his lack of winning record and lack of recent victory.
Wagering Strategy:
WIN bet on (3) COIL ME HOME
Main Exacta: 3-2, 3-6. Small reverse for each.
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