BEST BET: TOOREEN DANCER (Race 7, 7-2)
Race 6: Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo, 6-½ Furlongs, Fillies and mares
This field of five might be small on quantity but it sure makes up in quality as the entire field has combined with twenty-four career victories with three Graded Stakes winners in this field. TimeformUS pace projector sees this race with three horses vying for the early lead among longshot Rockport Babe, Bendable, and Constellation. Muny Spirit will drop back behind this trio of leaders with Skye Diamond trailing the field early but should be no more than two-lengths behind the early leaders after the first pace call.
Skye Diamonds enters this race with the field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure (99) and TimeformUS Speed Figure (121). Constellation leads the field in TimeformUS early pace rating and Skye Diamonds leads the field in TimeformUS late pace rating. Despite the numerous accolades for Skye Diamonds, this distance over this surface might be her undoing when you consider the track profile this meet.
Sprints have always favored early speed and none more this meet than at 6-½ furlongs. There have been nineteen races run at 6-½ furlongs and amazing fourteen of them were won by horses on the lead or less than one-length off the lead at the first pace call. That is a 74% strike rate. Horses that will be forwardly placed on or near the lead will get top preference and that is lead by TimeformUS leader in early pace CONSTELLATION (#4) who looks to turn the tables on Skye Diamonds. This daughter of Bellamy Road is one of three runners with a Graded Stakes victory and she scored her first victory in a Grade 1 in the La Brea Stakes on December 26 where she parlayed a perfect pace prompting trip through moderate early fractions to run down the pacesetter and second choice Finley’s Lucky Charm earning career best 95 Beyer Speed Figure. This victory was important not only because of the Grade 1 black type she earned but she did so over a monster “key” race field. The runner-up Finley’s Lucky Charm won her next three starts and missed a fourth when she finished a neck behind Paula’s Silver Lining in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga. The third-place finisher, Enola Gray, returned to win three of her next four starts concluded with a gate to wire victory in the Grade 3 Wilshire Stakes at Santa Anita. Lastly, also ran Perfect Pic returned to win her next two starts. After subpar effort in the Las Flores run during a driving rainstorm, she returned to top form with an excellent second-place finish behind the streaking Paula’s Silver Lining in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland. In that race she was asked for speed and battled in a three-horse speed duel between two longshots Ponder Lea and Kathballu through a 23.03 second opening quarter which earned above average Moss Pace Figure (+14). She put away those two pace rivals to assume command around the far turn, raced extremely off the rail on the turn and into the stretch as the favoriter Paula’s Silver Lining loomed up inside of her to challenge Constellation and she refused to quit losing by a neck where the winner went on to win Grade 1 Humana Distaff and Grade 2 Honorable Miss. Constellation lost nothing in defeat as her two pace rivals weaken to finish fifth beaten 4-½ lengths and eighth beaten 7-¼ lengths. She finished in front of last year’s BC Filly and Mare Sprint winner Finest City but was no match behind opportunistic stalking winner Skye Diamonds last time in the Grade 2 Great Lady M at Los Alamitos. She has bounced back with four works including two of them that earned the bullet designation at Los Alamitos. As mentioned her early speed is incredible asset at this distance and in her second race off the three-month layoff look for Jerry Hollendorfer trainee to be stronger filly to score minor upset with Flavien Prat reunited in the irons.
The Play: If I get 5-2 or higher on Constellation I will recommend a WIN bet on her but I am going to focus my action in this race in Pick 4 because I look to beat the favorite Spooky Woods in the next race.
WIN bet on (4) CONSTELLATION at 5-2 or better.
Pick 4: 4 w/ 6 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10 = 1 x 1 x 4 x 2 x $2 = $8
Pick 4: 2, 3 w/ 6 / 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10 = 2 x 1 x 4 x 2 x $1 = $16
Pick 4: 4 w/ 1, 7 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10 = 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 x $1 =$16
Pick 4: 4 w/ 6 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 2, 7 = 1 x 1 x 4 x 2 x $1 = $8
Race 7: Allowance N1X/Optional $75,000, 1-Mile Turf, Three-year olds
The first leg of the final Pick 3 on Sunday’s card is excellent gambling event and presents a pace scenario that could go faster than TimeformUS pace projector predicts. Lyrics and Painting Corners have either set or pressed red coded TimeformUS pace figures in their most recent starts and those two compose the early pace. Lake Time, Sabaurai, and morning line favorite Spooky Woods look to sit a garden trip behind this early duel. War Mocassin, Tooreen Dancer, and Cynthiana are three horses with potent late kick.
The morning line favorite that I will take a stand against in this race is Spooky Woods who will make her first start on the turf returning off almost a two-month layoff. Based on her pedigree and her trainer’s history with starters trying turf for the first time at Del Mar, Spooky Woods looks to be a vulnerable choice. He is by 13% turf sire in Ghostzapper and the dam Winter Forest has produced five starters with four winners but none were turf winners. Brigade won 3-of-21 starts on the main track but was 0-for-5 routing on the turf. Dixie Winter is a maiden after eleven starts and was 0-for-3 routing on the turf. Next, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has worked her twice on the turf this meet but previous history suggest that morning works on the surface does not translate to success in the afternoon. In the past five years, Jerry Hollendorfer has connected at paltry 4% (23/1-1-6) with his starters trying the turf for the first time at Del Mar. Despite the glorying reports from National Turf’s Andy Harrington on Spooky Woods two turf works, the lack of pedigree plus trainer Jerry Hollendorfer lack of success with this type makes her a bet against.
One of the first horses that went on my horses to watch list on opening week returns in this race and thankfully with a positive rider switch. TOOREEN DANCER (#6) was privately purchased by Little Red Feather Racing club after she broke her maiden in her career debut on the all-weather track at Dundalk last November. She defeated a full field of fourteen juveniles where the TimeformUS analyst commented “overcame inexperience to make a winning debut,” and was “open to improvement.” The daughter of Vale of York made her first start off a 254-day layoff on July 21 where she had worked in respectable fashion according to Andy Harrington including a B- move with stablemate Newsman who returned to run second in Allowance N2X on July 30 here at Del Mar. The Phil D’Amato trainee did not get a lot of support at the windows going off at 8-1 and finished seventh beaten 2-¼ lengths behind the gate to wire winner Meadowsweet. A closer examination of that defeat would suggest that Tooreeen Dancer is better than her United States debut would indicate. According to the Handicapper’s Report (HR) Trip Notes, this bay filly was “Three-wide at the rear of the main pack, going forward Four-wide in the turn, making a bold move for the lead turning for home, understandably flattening out in the final 1/16th.” The winner was a deserving winner winning the pace battle over longshot Tiburtina and fending off the challenge of favorite Pacific Wind. However, Tooreen Dancer never had a fair chance. Next to the premature move, she covered thirty-three more feet then the winner according to Trakus. She makes her second start in United States with a significant rider change to Kent Desormeaux who has six turf victories this meet and he should give his filly that patent one-late run in a race with plenty of early speed signed on from Lyrics and Painting Corners. Trainer Phil D’Amato is Del Mar’s leading turf trainer with seven victories and five of those wins happened routing on this turf course. She bounced back with a solid five-furlong spin on the turf on August 2 in 1:02 ⅖ where Andy Harrington commented “Came home happily with Nodiac in this clever looking drill in 38.0, 102.3. Could not separate them here; seems better than last.” I expect improvement in her second start with D’Amato who scores a 100 TimeformUS trainer rating with that move as my BEST BET on the card.
The Play: I look for a pace meltdown in this race to fall apart for the closers. Spooky Woods, Lyrics, and Painting Corners all have early or contending speed to be right up with leading group and over a distance on this turf course that favors stalkers/closers I will structure my wagers with that scenario.
WIN bet on (6) TOOREEN DANCER to WIN at 5-2 or better.
Main Exactas: 6-1, 6-7. Small reverse for each.
Trifecta part-wheel: 6 w/ 1, 7 w/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 = $16 for a $2 Wager
Trifecta part-wheel: 1, 7 w/ 6 w/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 = $8 for a $1 Wager
Pick 3: 6 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10 = 1 x 4 x 2 x $2 = $16
Pick 3: 1, 7 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 5, 10 = 2 x 4 x 2 x $1 = $16
Pick 3: 6 w/ 1, 2, 10, 11 w/ 2, 7 = 1 x 4 x 2 x $1 = $8
Race 8: Allowance N1X/Optional $40,000, 1-1/16 Miles, Three-year olds and up
The first leg of the late Daily Double will only be the third race at today’s mile and a sixteenth distance this meet and the TimeformUS pace projector feels this race does not favor a specific running style but two horses have the most early speed. Tribal Jewel will look to go for the early lead with Stringent either on the lead or pressing the pace in second. Brimstoned, Rocket Fuel, and Irish Freedom are trio of runners that will be tracking this leading duo down the backstretch. Horses that will be charging with strong late kick are General Kitten, Ain’t Misbehavin, and Saint Dermot.
The field’s top last race Beyer Speed Figure belongs to General Kitten (87) and the field’s top last race TimeformUS Speed Figure on the main track goes to Tribal Jewel (114). The latter also owns the field’s top TimeformUS early pace rating with four horses tie with the field’s top TimeformUS late pace rating General Kitten, Ain’t Misbehavin, Saint Dermot, and Irish Freedom.
Although there have been only two races at mile and sixteenth there has been twenty-six route races this meet and seventeen of them were won by horses on the lead or within one-length of the lead after the first half mile. This information boils this race down to horses with speed to lead or sit forwardly placed to the early pace. STRINGENT (#2) has not visited the Winner’s Circle since June 2015 and so far he is winless in six starts this year with two third-place finishes. He had only one race around two turns on May 21 at Santa Anita and he finished a respectable third beaten less than two-lengths in a race that set up perfectly for the opportunistic stalker nine-year old Soi Phet (12-for-53). In that race the son of Lemon Drop Kid went out for the early lead vying for the pace between Candy Promises and Kristo early through moderate early fractions for the first half mile. He poked in his head in front turning for home putting away Candy Promises but was out gamed towards the wire by the latter and out finished by the stalking Soi Phet to lose by only 1-¾ lengths. He earned a career best 92 Beyer Speed Figure on the main track. The David Hofmans trainee returned from a two-month layoff on July 21 here at Del Mar where he was turning back to six and a half furlongs and he tired badly to finish sixth beaten 8-½ lengths but this margin of defeat was the result of being involved in a heated and contested pace battle. The home-bred flashed his early speed in the two-path racing in four-horse speed duel through a wicked 22.01 second opening quarter and 44.26 second half mile that earn above average Moss Pace Figures (+10, +11) and earned red coded TimeformUS pace figure. He was under a drive and began to drop back midway on the far turn finishing sixth earning the field’s second highest last race TimeformUS Speed Figure of 113. From the first fifteen races at six and a half furlongs this meet, the 44.26 second half mile is the fastest this meet. He will now stretch out to two turns and in the past three years, David Hofmans connects at 25% (16/4-1-1) with his starters stretching out from a sprint to a route on the main track. He has historically always been a good work horse in the morning and has continued that trend with two bullet works at five and six furlongs including six furlong move at Los Alamitos on August 8 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington’s assistant commented “always stylish worker was reaching in his usual noteworthy manner. Situation normal.” After pressing an enervating pace in his last start, he should find himself on the lead on the stretch out which has been a winning profile this meet in route races and should be a price with form clouded by four out of the money efforts this year.
The Play: STRINGENT is the selection to go gate to wire but he will not be the only horse I will use on my wagers. Morning line favorite Tribal Jewel wins too many races not to merit respect (12-for-48), Rocket Fuel who was bothered by a slow start from the rail on opening weekend behind fast and streaking winner Prime Issue, and Irish Freedom who ran better than looked in his only start at this distance.
WIN bet on (2) STRINGENT at 5-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 2-1, 2-10, 2-11. Small reverse for each.
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 1-Mile Turf, Two-year old Fillies
The finale does not have sufficient amount of data for accurate Pace Projector. Only two horses, Poco Suenos and morning line favorite Dawn Traveller, are the only horses in the field with turf experience. The remainder of the field will make their first start on turf and around two turns. Insist on a horse with a price and luckily this race represents that opportunity.
The July 23 maiden race won by Newport Breeze only earned a 60 Beyer Speed Figure but that race might be stronger than the final speed figure would suggest. The runner-up, Dancing Belle, improved twelve Beyer Speed Figure points to a 70 when she ran second to Spectator in last week’s Grade 2 Sorrento Stakes to indicate that maiden race is better than the final time. Two horses exit that race but one of them is especially well bred for the surface switch to turf and two turns. LADYBUG (#5) was all the rage in her debut going off as the 2-1 second choice behind post time favorite Krissy’s Manicure based on her work tab. She had worked a series of B- works according to National Turf’s Andy Harrington including a impressive five furlong work from the gate on July 3 that Andy commented “Prat up; broke in good order leading barn mate Whirling all the way in 35.4, 48.0, 100.2. Even keeled and steady.” However two items that persuaded me off this filly in her career debut. Firstly, trainer Richard Mandella had won only once in his previous seven first time starters making their debut in a dirt sprint maiden special weight at Del Mar. Secondly, Ladybug’s pedigree was tilted to routing on the turf and my belief was that this daughter of Medaglia D’Oro was going to need a race in her career debut. In that race, Ladybug was parked in a congested battle for the early lead racing four wide in a six horse scramble for the early lead through a fast 22.00 second flat opening quarter which was fast enough to earn above average Moss Pace Figure (+16) and red coded TimeformUS pace figure. She was the first to back out of that speed duel into the far turn and was not asked through the stretch meaning seventeen-length margin of defeat means little. She will now stretch out and try turf for the first time and based on trainer Richard Mandella success with those moves and her pedigree Ladybug should appreciate the change. In the past five years, Richard Mandella has won at 21% (14/3-3-3) with second time starters making their first start on the turf and in a route with two of those winners happened at Del Mar: Dreamologist (September 4, 2015, $1.80-1) and Ky. Colonel (August 10, 2016, $2.20-1). Ladybug is by Medaglia D’Oro who connects at 16% with two-year old routing on the turf and her dam has produced five winners from six starters with two of those starters winning on the turf. She returned with a half mile move in 48 ⅘ on August 1 that National Turf’s Andy Harrington praised with a B stating “breezed a 1/2 mile out of the gate in 48.2 but clearly appeared more fit, galloping well in 101.0 out again 114.1. Stepping up some.” Although Flavien Prat leaves Ladybug for the morning line favorite Dawn Traveller, she gets the services of Drayden Van Dyke who has scored six turf victories this meet. I expect major improvement on the surface switch and additional distance and the higher priced of my four main contenders in this race.
Attention should also be given to morning line favorite DAWN TRAVELLER (#10) who finished fourth beaten only a length in her career debut at the Curragh where TimeformUS analyst commented that she is “open to improvement.” The gray daughter of Dragon Pulse ran into a strong field as the runner-up, Now You’re Talking, came back to finish fourth in a twenty-three horse field in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. The third-place finisher Clemmie went on to win the Group 3 Grangecon Stud Stakes at Curragh on July 2 and came back twelve days later to win Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket. Trainer Simon Callaghan wins at 23% rate (31/7-1-2) with foreign shippers making their North American debut in a turf route including Beau Recall (January 29, 2017, $8.80-1) for these same owners. Flavien Prat is lured away from Ladybug for this filly and if she improves off her solid debut race she will prove tough to beat in second career start.
The Play: Ladybug and Dawn Traveller are my co-top choices and we will round out my exactas with Gia Lula who looks to get a great ground saving trip from post position two with winning connections and exits potential key race on July 23 and Cinnamon Twist who worked in company with Dawn Traveller and is half sibling to two-time turf winner Oregon.
WIN bet on (5) LADYBUG at 5-1 or better.
Main Exactas: 5-2, 5-7, 5-10. No reverse.
Main Exactas: 10-2, 10-5, 10-7. No reverse.
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